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Race for the 2020 MVP award (1 Viewer)

GB Rb's_218 yards today

KC Rb's_76 yards today

One had pressure all game with his oline struggling again, and the other had coffee and donuts waiting for Adams to get open behind an elite oline. One has run support and elite blockers, the other simply doesn't. Been that way for awhile now. 

 
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Another week, and nothing has changed for me. Rodgers is still the MVP, and is frankly putting distance on it. I'd argue the battle for second is closer than for first.

Still like kelce and Donald for offensive and defensive players in the year.

Chase Young is the obvious defensive rookie of the year, can't even see a case for anyone else.

Offensive rookie of the year is probably Justin Herbert, but I would make a case for Justin jefferson still. 

Coach of the year is a tough call. It usually goes to coaches who had significant gains from the year before, and not the actual best coach. So while it probably should be Andy Reid, it's more likely to be either Ron Rivera (if Washington wins their division) or Brian Flores.

 
Deamon said:
This is going to go down to the wire.  Numbers are overall identical.

Mahomes: 5042 Yards, 40 TDs, 8 TOs, 14-1 Record
Rodgers:  4204 Yards, 47 TDs, 7 TOs, 12-3 Record
 
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I think Rodgers wins a tie on the "Mahomes will get more chances" logic.

 
travdogg said:
Another week, and nothing has changed for me. Rodgers is still the MVP, and is frankly putting distance on it. I'd argue the battle for second is closer than for first.

Still like kelce and Donald for offensive and defensive players in the year.

Chase Young is the obvious defensive rookie of the year, can't even see a case for anyone else.

Offensive rookie of the year is probably Justin Herbert, but I would make a case for Justin jefferson still. 

Coach of the year is a tough call. It usually goes to coaches who had significant gains from the year before, and not the actual best coach. So while it probably should be Andy Reid, it's more likely to be either Ron Rivera (if Washington wins their division) or Brian Flores.
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Not sure I'd go that far. I give Rodgers the narrow edge over Mahomes for first, and then there is a bit of a drop-off and then J Allen and R Wilson are pretty close for 3rd (Wilson's incredible first half still counts for a lot).  Not sure who'd be in 5th place, but they aren't close to those four at this point, IMO. 

 
Tom Brady “isn’t close” to those first four? He’s on a new team with a different system without an offseason and is on the verge of improving his team’s record by 4 wins. His team hadn’t made the playoffs in 13 years. His statistics are very much in line with those other players if not exceeding them. 

 
Grahamburn said:
Tom Brady “isn’t close” to those first four? He’s on a new team with a different system without an offseason and is on the verge of improving his team’s record by 4 wins. His team hadn’t made the playoffs in 13 years. His statistics are very much in line with those other players if not exceeding them. 
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Nope. 

 
Intended air yards(avg):

Tom Brady - 9.2 yards per pass attempt
Mahomes - 8.5 yards per pass attempt
Rodgers - 8.1 yards per pass attempt
R. Wilson - 8.5 yards per pass attempt
D. Brees - 6.2 yards per pass attempt

Completed air yards(avg):

Tom Brady - 7.0 yards per completed pass
Mahomes - 6.3 yards per completed pass
Rodgers - 5.5 yards per completed pass
R. Wilson - 6.4 yards per completed pass
D. Brees - 5.4 yards per completed pass

As you can see Brady throws the ball deeper than all these quarterbacks, and he completes more of these deep throws as well. Yet some of these players have better y/a than Brady. This is explained by the following stat, YAC:

Mahomes - 2256 YACs(1st)
Rodgers - 2141 YACs (2nd)
Brady - 1612 YACs (15th)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... vanced.htm

What makes all this deep passing from Brady even more impressive is the fact that Brady has less time to throw than both Mahomes and Rodgers:

Mahomes - 2.89 secs to throw on average
Rodgers - 2.72 secs to throw on average
Brady - 2.57 secs to throw on average

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/pass ... e-to-throw

Of course advanced metrics like PFF has noticed Brady's excellence as well, he is currently graded as the 2nd best QB in the entire league only behind Rodgers:

1. Rodgers - 94.5
2. Brady - 91.9
2. Watson - 91.9
Click to expand...
Post courtesy of Executus over at buczone.com.

 
Brady has led TB to a 1-5 record vs teams in the playoffs, or still involved in a playoff race. That's not even close to MVP level.

Lost to Saints 2 times, Chi, Rams, and KC. Beat GB.

 
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crushedspirit said:
Brady has led TB to a 1-5 record vs teams in the playoffs, or still involved in a playoff race. That's not even close to MVP level.

Lost to Saints 2 times, Chi, Rams, and KC. Beat GB.
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You should probably check on GB and KC’s schedules before making these arguments. 

 
I'd agree that Brady isn't getting enough credit for having an awesome year. Tampa is the 2nd best team in the NFC in my opinion, and they dominated Green Bay when they played. For whatever reason New Orleans apparently has their number, but I think Tampa is much more likely to be in the Super Bowl than New Orleans is. 

I'm on board throwing him in the same group with Wilson or Allen though. That said, I don't think Brady has been in the same league as Rodgers at all, I think Rodgers is having one of the best seasons in NFL history. 

 
Grahamburn said:
You should probably check on GB and KC’s schedules before making these arguments. 
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I already posted similar information in this thread before. 

Mahomes has led KC to a 5-0 record against opponents in the playoffs, or still in the hunt. (NO, Mia, TB, Buf, and Bal). Four of these teams are in top-10 power rankings.

Rodgers has led GB to a 3-2 record against opponents in the playoffs, or still in the hunt. (Ten, Chi, and NO). Two of these teams are in the top-10 power rankings. 

Pretty obvious Mahomes and KC have beaten more quality opponents when you look at the schedules. 

 
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crushedspirit said:
I already posted similar information in this thread before. 

Mahomes has led KC to a 5-0 record against opponents in the playoffs, or still in the hunt. (NO, Mia, TB, Buf, and Bal). Four of these teams are in top-10 power rankings.

Rodgers has led GB to a 3-2 record against opponents in the playoffs, or still in the hunt. (Ten, Chi, and NO). Two of these teams are in the top-10 power rankings. 

Pretty obvious Mahomes and KC have beaten more quality opponents when you look at the schedules. 
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I would agree with Mahomes, but wouldn't for Rodgers, and (Brady) beat him in their head to head matchup.  It's difficult to make an argument against PM.  However, I just posted several metrics where Brady is ranked higher than Mahomes, and TB should be getting more run in the conversation due to the team change and lack of off-season.  He's certainly better than "not close."

 
Didn't Brady go on a stretch of 0-23 for passes over 20 yards at one point? I read somewhere he was #1 in deep ball attempts at 75, but #23 in deep ball completion at 37.3%.
 

Regardless, he does deserve credit for TB's success for sure, especially with those numbers at his age.

 
ZWK said:
Top 3 leaderboards after wk13:

QB

ANY/A
8.93    Rodgers
8.91    Mahomes
8.22    Watson
    
DVOA
41.0%    Mahomes
36.2%    Rodgers
25.0%    Tannehill
    
DYAR
1675    Mahomes
1371    Rodgers
1047    Tannehill
    
EPA
110.2    Mahomes
81.2    Allen
80.2    Rodgers
    
QBR
85.7    Mahomes
84.6    Rodgers
81.0    Brees
    
PFF Grade
94.7    Rodgers
93.3    Mahomes
91.1    Watson

Team Offense

OSRS
6.7    GB
5.6    TEN
5.6    KC

EPA
207.41    KC
180.69    GB
175.36    TEN
    
Off DVOA
31.1%    KC
28.3%    GB
21.6%    TEN
    
Pts per drive (through wk12)
3.11    KC
3.06    GB
2.91    SEA
    
Yds per drive (through wk12)
45.25    KC
40.28    GB
39.95    TEN
Click to expand...
After wk16:

QB

ANY/A
8.70    Rodgers
8.33    Mahomes
8.22    Watson
    
DVOA
31.5%    Mahomes
30.1%    Rodgers
25.8%    Allen
    
DYAR
1756    Mahomes
1465    Rodgers
1461    Allen
   
EPA
128.7    Mahomes
111.8    Allen
99.0    Rodgers
    
QBR
83.9    Rodgers
82.7    Mahomes
81.6    Allen
    
PFF Grade
94.5    Rodgers
91.9    Watson
91.9    Brady
91.4    Mahomes
90.6    Wilson
90.3    Allen

Team Offense

OSRS
5.6    GB
5.6    TB
5.5    BUF
5.4    KC

EPA
236.78    GB
228.58    KC
222.09    TEN
193.47    BUF
   
Off DVOA
26.9%    GB
24.9%    KC
19.0%    TEN
16.0%    TB
15.6%    BUF
    
Pts per drive
3.14    GB
2.96    BUF
2.91    TEN
2.85    KC
  
Yds per drive
43.83    KC
40.79    GB
40.73    BUF

Top 2 seems really close between Rodgers & Mahomes. Allen 3rd. I extended all of these lists enough to include all three of those guys.

 
ZWK said:
Top 2 seems really close between Rodgers & Mahomes. Allen 3rd. I extended all of these lists enough to include all three of those guys.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I think Allen gets the nod over Wilson for 3rd place.  As great as Wilson was early on (he carried that team when the defense was playing like trash), he has not been great the last two months, and we can't overlook that.  Current odds I see online are:

Rodgers -250
Mahomes +220
Allen +1500
D Henry +5000
D Adams +5000
Wilson +10,000
Tannehill +10,000

 
travdogg said:
I'd agree that Brady isn't getting enough credit for having an awesome year. Tampa is the 2nd best team in the NFC in my opinion, and they dominated Green Bay when they played. For whatever reason New Orleans apparently has their number, but I think Tampa is much more likely to be in the Super Bowl than New Orleans is. 

I'm on board throwing him in the same group with Wilson or Allen though. That said, I don't think Brady has been in the same league as Rodgers at all, I think Rodgers is having one of the best seasons in NFL history. 
Click to expand...
Nope.

 
So many good QBs this year.

Rodgers gets it.  Stats aside, his performance has been entirely superb.  Possibly one of the best seasons in NFL history.

 
Some Mahomes vs. Rodgers context comparisons:

Mahomes has a better coaching staff.

Mahomes has a better receiving corps.

Rodgers has gotten more Yards After Catch from his receivers.

Rodgers has a better offensive line.

Rodgers has better rushing offense.

Mahomes has played a tougher schedule of passing defenses.

Mahomes has played a tougher schedule of opponents (overall team quality).

Mahomes' opponents have dropped more would-be interceptions.

 
Cowherd has a pretty good segment on why Allen deserves to in the same tier as these two, namely: doing more with less. 

The ultimate conclusion is that it is Rodgers award to lose and since Mahomes has nothing to play for I don’t see that changing. 

 
That puts the nail in the coffin.  Mahomes out today and Rodgers has 3tds already.  Rodgers wins and probably by quite a bit. 


My Prediction for Votes:
Rodgers 43
Mahomes 4
Allen 2
Henry 1

 
Deamon said:
That puts the nail in the coffin.  Mahomes out today and Rodgers has 3tds already.  Rodgers wins and probably by quite a bit. 


My Prediction for Votes:
Rodgers 43
Mahomes 4
Allen 2
Henry 1
Click to expand...
That sounds about right, but given the indignation earlier in the season about how Russell Wilson has never received a single MVP vote, I won't be surprised if a voter or two gives him their vote. 

 
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Ghost Rider said:
That sounds about right, but given the indignation earlier in the season about how Russell Wilson has never received a single MVP vote, I won't be surprised if a voter or two gives him their vote. 
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He's just so far behind.  I can't see any reputable AP member actually thinking that he is the unquestioned MVP of the league this year.

 
crushedspirit said:
The way Rodgers closed out the season pretty much seals the deal for the race. Now it's only a question by how many votes.
Click to expand...
Listen, I know Rodgers is going to win it, but Allen has a legit claim IMO. The Bills played the 14th toughest schedule in the league while the Packers played the 24th. The Dolphins came into today as the #1 scoring defense in the league and Allen put up 224 yards and 3 TDs in one half. The Bills put up almost 25% of all points scored against the Dolphins on the season in their 2 games.

4,977 total yards.

46 total TDs.

Rodgers is going to finish with 6-7 more TDs and fewer INTs than Allen, but Allen is crushing him in yards and played a much more difficult schedule with no running game and an inferior offensive line.

And while the Packers are finishing well, during crunch time the Bills have finished the last five months of the season scoring 34, 26, 48, 38 and 56 points. That includes 26 against the #2 scoring defense and 56 against the #1 scoring defense. The other defenses were the 11, 17 and 25th. During that time, Allen went for 1,626 total yards and 17 TDs.

The Packers have been hot scoring 30, 31, 24, 40, and 21+. The Bears are the highest ranked defense on that list at #9. The others are 18, 22, 23 and 32nd. During that time, Rodgers went for 1,210+ total yards and 16+ TDs (stats are as of about 7:24 left in the 4th quarter).

Allen’s stats are very similar to Rodgers’s, he’s been hotter than Rodgers to end the season and his team has been hitter against better competition. He deserves plenty of votes.

 
Mahomes has led KC to beat 4 top-10 teams, so it's already been established who's had to face the best. 

As for Allen, one can't dismiss 16 turnovers vs 7, and some forgettable performances, especially against Ten and KC. There's nothing wrong with finishing behind Rodgers. He's had a great season for the Bills, and there should be more coming.

 
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GroveDiesel said:
Listen, I know Rodgers is going to win it, but Allen has a legit claim IMO. The Bills played the 14th toughest schedule in the league while the Packers played the 24th. The Dolphins came into today as the #1 scoring defense in the league and Allen put up 224 yards and 3 TDs in one half. The Bills put up almost 25% of all points scored against the Dolphins on the season in their 2 games.

4,977 total yards.

46 total TDs.

Rodgers is going to finish with 6-7 more TDs and fewer INTs than Allen, but Allen is crushing him in yards and played a much more difficult schedule with no running game and an inferior offensive line.

And while the Packers are finishing well, during crunch time the Bills have finished the last five months of the season scoring 34, 26, 48, 38 and 56 points. That includes 26 against the #2 scoring defense and 56 against the #1 scoring defense. The other defenses were the 11, 17 and 25th. During that time, Allen went for 1,626 total yards and 17 TDs.

The Packers have been hot scoring 30, 31, 24, 40, and 21+. The Bears are the highest ranked defense on that list at #9. The others are 18, 22, 23 and 32nd. During that time, Rodgers went for 1,210+ total yards and 16+ TDs (stats are as of about 7:24 left in the 4th quarter).

Allen’s stats are very similar to Rodgers’s, he’s been hotter than Rodgers to end the season and his team has been hitter against better competition. He deserves plenty of votes.
Click to expand...
You hit every stat but conveniently ignore the Turnovers which also matters here and also is a huge win for Rodgers over Allen.

All of those other things you said regarding opponents, etc.... is irrelevant in this voting.  It's about stats and team record.  Period.

I hate the totally incorrect "deserves plenty of votes" thing... This isn't baseball... each voter gets 1 vote.  If anyone votes for Allen it means they think he was the #1 player this year.  In a perfect world the winner would be unanimous.  I don't think Allen gets more than a couple votes man.

 
Buffaloes said:
rename this the Davey O'Brien Award if anyone but Henry gets it this yr
Click to expand...
Henry only has better stats than Cook because they sat him this week.  Even then it's very close.  Cook beats Henry in Yards per game and TD's per game.  I dont think you can give the award to a RB unless he dominates all the other RB's in the league and there isn't an amazing qb option.  Neither of those happened this year.

 
Rodgers:  4,448 Yards, 51 TDs, 7 TOs, 13-3 Record
Allen: 4,996 Yards, 45 TDs, 16 TOs,  13-3 Record
Mahomes:  5,042 Yards, 40 TDs, 8 TOs,  14-2 Record
Wilson:  4,725 Yards, 42 TDs, 17 TOs, 12-4 Record

Based on the above numbers, Rodgers wins.  He should get all 50 votes.

 
Deamon said:
He's just so far behind.  I can't see any reputable AP member actually thinking that he is the unquestioned MVP of the league this year.
Click to expand...
Never underestimate a jughead or two in the media trying to make a statement with their vote, especially in a year where they figure the likely winner will get most of the votes (Rodgers), so their token vote to someone else won't really affect the outcome.  

 
GroveDiesel said:
Listen, I know Rodgers is going to win it, but Allen has a legit claim IMO. The Bills played the 14th toughest schedule in the league while the Packers played the 24th. The Dolphins came into today as the #1 scoring defense in the league and Allen put up 224 yards and 3 TDs in one half. The Bills put up almost 25% of all points scored against the Dolphins on the season in their 2 games.

4,977 total yards.

46 total TDs.

Rodgers is going to finish with 6-7 more TDs and fewer INTs than Allen, but Allen is crushing him in yards and played a much more difficult schedule with no running game and an inferior offensive line.

And while the Packers are finishing well, during crunch time the Bills have finished the last five months of the season scoring 34, 26, 48, 38 and 56 points. That includes 26 against the #2 scoring defense and 56 against the #1 scoring defense. The other defenses were the 11, 17 and 25th. During that time, Allen went for 1,626 total yards and 17 TDs.

The Packers have been hot scoring 30, 31, 24, 40, and 21+. The Bears are the highest ranked defense on that list at #9. The others are 18, 22, 23 and 32nd. During that time, Rodgers went for 1,210+ total yards and 16+ TDs (stats are as of about 7:24 left in the 4th quarter).

Allen’s stats are very similar to Rodgers’s, he’s been hotter than Rodgers to end the season and his team has been hitter against better competition. He deserves plenty of votes.
Click to expand...
Plus you can’t discount what Allen gives you on the ground...

 
Sam Quentin said:
Plus you can’t discount what Allen gives you on the ground...
Click to expand...
To be fair, I did include Allen’s yards on the ground and his receiving TD.

And yes to previous posters, I did omit turnovers. Allen was definitely worse than Rodgers in that regard, but I do think Rodgers had a decent amount of luck on dropped INTs this year. Heck, there were THREE that absolutely should have been picked today.

 
Deamon said:
Henry only has better stats than Cook because they sat him this week.  Even then it's very close.  Cook beats Henry in Yards per game and TD's per game.  I dont think you can give the award to a RB unless he dominates all the other RB's in the league and there isn't an amazing qb option.  Neither of those happened this year.
Click to expand...
So if cook played this week he would have had better stats than Henry? That’s what you are saying?

 
starks said:
So if cook played this week he would have had better stats than Henry? That’s what you are saying?
Click to expand...
Correct.

Cook 1918 yards, 17 TDs in 14 games
Henry 2141 yards, 17 TDs in 16 games


EDT:  If Cook got his weekly average and played this week only
Cook 2055 yards, 18 TDs in 15 games
Henry 2141 yards, 17 TDs in 16 games

EDT:  If Cook got his weekly average and played 16 weeks
Cook 2192 yards, 19 TDs in 16 games
Henry 2141 yards, 17 TDs in 16 games
 

 
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Deamon said:
Henry only has better stats than Cook because they sat him this week.  Even then it's very close.  Cook beats Henry in Yards per game and TD's per game.  I dont think you can give the award to a RB unless he dominates all the other RB's in the league and there isn't an amazing qb option.  Neither of those happened this year.
Click to expand...
Titans rode Henry into a division title though....Cook did not.  Typically, it goes to a QB who has the stats and his team has success.

 
Manster said:
Titans rode Henry into a division title though....Cook did not.  Typically, it goes to a QB who has the stats and his team has success.
Click to expand...
Never disagreed with that.... my counterpoint to Starks was purely stat based.  If I had to vote an MVP between Henry and Cook I give it to Henry for sure. 

His stats are just not dominant over other RB's this year.... which imo would be a prerequisite for the extremely rare case of an RB deserving the MVP.

 
GroveDiesel said:
To be fair, I did include Allen’s yards on the ground and his receiving TD.

And yes to previous posters, I did omit turnovers. Allen was definitely worse than Rodgers in that regard, but I do think Rodgers had a decent amount of luck on dropped INTs this year. Heck, there were THREE that absolutely should have been picked today.
Click to expand...
Not including this week,

Rodgers, 11 interceptable passes

Mahomes, 15 interceptable passes

Allen, 23 interceptable passes

Allen has had a great season, and the future looks good for him.

 
GroveDiesel said:
To be fair, I did include Allen’s yards on the ground and his receiving TD.

And yes to previous posters, I did omit turnovers. Allen was definitely worse than Rodgers in that regard, but I do think Rodgers had a decent amount of luck on dropped INTs this year. Heck, there were THREE that absolutely should have been picked today.
Click to expand...


crushedspirit said:
Not including this week,

Rodgers, 11 interceptable passes

Mahomes, 15 interceptable passes

Allen, 23 interceptable passes

Allen has had a great season, and the future looks good for him.
Click to expand...
Was just going to mention interceptable passes.  Even counting the drops, Allen had twice as many that should have been picked.  I understand you're a big Bills fan but the homerism is a bit strong on this one.  Josh had an absolute amazing season, but he isn't the mvp.

 
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