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Looking like less games with 50+ O/Us than last week, and a lot of predicted blowouts.  

The only 3 above 50pts are Clev/Tenn, Jax/Minn, Indy/Tex .   LaR/Az is next with 48.  

 

Pace up games are:  LaR/Az, Clev/Tenn, and LaC/NE.  

 

Might be a week to pay up for 2-3 RBs as the top Rush Potential matchups are:  Jax, NE, Tenn, Minn, Clev, LaR, Mia, Chic.  

 

Sack Potential list was:  GB, NO, Indy, NYG, Chic, Mia, LaR

 

Also looks like another terrible week for TE, and might be time to dumpster dive there.  

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4 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Looking like less games with 50+ O/Us than last week, and a lot of predicted blowouts.  

The only 3 above 50pts are Clev/Tenn, Jax/Minn, Indy/Tex .   LaR/Az is next with 48. 

Definitely a bit of a different setup this week. No great matchups to exploit. Few high scoring games. Fewer close games.

I prefer stacking QB/WR/WR. None of the high scoring games really lend themselves to that setup. I can go QB/RB/WR but I prefer not to. Based on this the only teams I like are Minn and Hou.

Cousins seems like a good value play this week and if Thielen returns could make a decent stack.  You also have good run-back options with Chark and Robinson.  Also, I feel this is one that can stay close.

As for Houston,. DeShaun has been playing great. But how will the lack of Fuller affect Watson against that excellent Indy secondary? Plus, although Indy scores, there is not a good run-back option.

I may just end up going with Aaron Rodgers and DaVante Adams.  Philly is not a bad defense, but Rodgers is on a mission. I feel like he is the "safe" choice.  Trouble is, I don't see a good run-back for PHI.

At least it is early and I will continue to dig into the stats. Right now though, I'm looking at some combination of:

Cousins/ Cook/ Robinson/  Thielen/ Landry/ Coutee/ JSmith/ Montgomery/ ATL

and/or

Rodgers/ JRobinson/ Hunt/ Adams/ Lazard/ Fulgham/ Hooper/ ARobinson/ DET

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Have a similar LU to your first with the express objective to get Henry on the roster because I think he has a big week against my Browns. If Thielen comes back I’ll have to adjust because I think Jefferson’s production takes a hit.

QB: Cousins/RB: Henry + Robinson/WR: Jefferson + Allen II + Agholor/TE: Rudolph/Flex: Landry/Def: TEN

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I haven't started with FD yet, but for DK I staring at LUs where I build them backwards -  Put in a high priced RB duo, a D on my list, and then see what cheaper stacks are spit out at me.  

Thinking about this just because the studs matchup with best OL/DL matchup chart.  

 

I am going to think about this more because most of the stack were from those pace up games that I listed above.  Example = 

Goff/Kupp/Woods + Kirk   with Cook/Henry.   Of course it was filled out with popular cheap options like Akins, Conley, and a 2.4K DT.  

Not saying I am doing that, but I do like that it wasn't complete garbage if I tried that.     Basically Goff, Newton, and Tannehill stacks were popular in the mix.   And the initial ownership has Henry and Chubb as sub 10%, which shocked me so I am going to build 100 with no restrictions and see what they are thinking a popular build will be.  

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Looks like mostly it was spitting out Cook + Montgomery LUs out.  

 

My initial gut thought was going 9K rb + 7K rb, so  Cook/Henry +  Chubb/Robinson/Ekeler.     That would let me move off a 3K crapper WR and having to use a popular Akins.  

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Couple of FD LU's I threw together last night:

Normal full LU: QB Cousins/RB Henry, Robinson/WR Jefferson, Robinson, Agholor/TE Rudolph/Flex Landry/D Titans

Obligatory KC heavy LU: QB Mahomes/RB Snell, Edwards-Helaire/WR Hill, Watkins, Samuel/TE Ebron/Flex Diggs/D Bills

Some Super Flex contest I signed up for: QB Fitzpatrick/RB Robinson, Taylor/WR Parker, Metcalf/TE Eifert/Flex Thielen/Superflex Henry

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Here's a FD placeholder 3 Stud RB Lu:

Trubisky - Henry/Chubb/Robinson - Mooney/Kupp/Kirk - Rudoph - GB

 

Got correlation out the butt:

Trub/Mooney stack

Henry/Chubb

Robinson/Rudolph

Kupp/Kirk

 

 

Something like that is what I will throw a couple shots on for a cheap, bigger gpp.  

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I have no answers, but I have questions....what say you?

Round two of Altanta vs Taysom, but this time Taysom is not listed as a TE.  Can an improved Atlanta team slow him down this time around?  I have not been impressed with Taysom, but he is so dangerous with his legs.  I do not trust him as my QB this week.  As Kamara's price slides, it becomes enticing.  I am not sure I am in yet, but I like him more each day.

I have enjoyed the value Watson has offered most of the year, but I am out this week.  I still like (not love) Cooks, but I think not having Fuller hurts Watson this week against a pretty good Indy D.

I am out on Murray.  I have no inside scoop, but I think he is hurt and playing through it.

I think Herbert is due for some more regression, which could still mean a solid week.  I think he struggles some against New England this week.  I also think that impacts Allen.  I think Ekeler is the play.

I like Russ, but he is expensive.  I could see stacking him with Carson and Lockett.

I think this is an A Jones week, so I am out on Rodgers and Adams (risky move).

Struggling to find a QB I love this week, so I am leaning toward:  Russ, Goff, Carr, Cousins, and Fitz are all being considered.

I want nothing to do with Montgomery.  No thanks.  I do not care about the matchup or last week's performance or number of touches.  I will find value elsewhere -- give me Gaskin over Montgomery.

I like Cook and Henry.  Who doesn't?  I am just not sure I can fit them in this week.  I will be using alot of Chubb and Jones this week.

I will be scouring the mid-tier WRs it appears this week.  Spending around $6K for guys like Davis, Sheppard, Pittman, Cooks, along with some Kupp and Coutee mixed in.

I like Waller and he is due for a big week, but I am not sure I can afford him.  I will throw darts at several TEs, but at this point I am not sure who stands out.  I will probably just hope to find an affordable coloration that fits the rest of the lineup.

If I am paying up at defense, I like Miami and Seattle.  If I am middle tiering it give me Green Bay or Chicago.  For cheap D, I like Detroit, Atlanta, New England, and Jets.

These are my early thoughts for this week...what say you?

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24 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I have no answers, but I have questions....what say you?

Round two of Altanta vs Taysom, but this time Taysom is not listed as a TE.  Can an improved Atlanta team slow him down this time around?  I have not been impressed with Taysom, but he is so dangerous with his legs.  I do not trust him as my QB this week.  As Kamara's price slides, it becomes enticing.  I am not sure I am in yet, but I like him more each day.

I have enjoyed the value Watson has offered most of the year, but I am out this week.  I still like (not love) Cooks, but I think not having Fuller hurts Watson this week against a pretty good Indy D.

I am out on Murray.  I have no inside scoop, but I think he is hurt and playing through it.

I think Herbert is due for some more regression, which could still mean a solid week.  I think he struggles some against New England this week.  I also think that impacts Allen.  I think Ekeler is the play.

I like Russ, but he is expensive.  I could see stacking him with Carson and Lockett.

I think this is an A Jones week, so I am out on Rodgers and Adams (risky move).

Struggling to find a QB I love this week, so I am leaning toward:  Russ, Goff, Carr, Cousins, and Fitz are all being considered.

I want nothing to do with Montgomery.  No thanks.  I do not care about the matchup or last week's performance or number of touches.  I will find value elsewhere -- give me Gaskin over Montgomery.

I like Cook and Henry.  Who doesn't?  I am just not sure I can fit them in this week.  I will be using alot of Chubb and Jones this week.

I will be scouring the mid-tier WRs it appears this week.  Spending around $6K for guys like Davis, Sheppard, Pittman, Cooks, along with some Kupp and Coutee mixed in.

I like Waller and he is due for a big week, but I am not sure I can afford him.  I will throw darts at several TEs, but at this point I am not sure who stands out.  I will probably just hope to find an affordable coloration that fits the rest of the lineup.

If I am paying up at defense, I like Miami and Seattle.  If I am middle tiering it give me Green Bay or Chicago.  For cheap D, I like Detroit, Atlanta, New England, and Jets.

These are my early thoughts for this week...what say you?

For what it's worth, I just got done with reading one of my favorite articles to start the week with and his players that he liked for scheme vs. specific Ds were:

Rodgers, Adams, Cousins, Kupp, all 3 (or 2) Minn passing targets, Jonnu Smith, M.Thomas

 

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47 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I have no answers, but I have questions....what say you?

Round two of Altanta vs Taysom, but this time Taysom is not listed as a TE.  Can an improved Atlanta team slow him down this time around?  I have not been impressed with Taysom, but he is so dangerous with his legs.  I do not trust him as my QB this week.  As Kamara's price slides, it becomes enticing.  I am not sure I am in yet, but I like him more each day. I'm out on Saints for a while. Week 1 of Hill @ TE was a fun gift, that was about the peak of my interest.

I have enjoyed the value Watson has offered most of the year, but I am out this week.  I still like (not love) Cooks, but I think not having Fuller hurts Watson this week against a pretty good Indy D. I, like you, have liked Watson but he's screwed now. He's out for me as well.

I am out on Murray.  I have no inside scoop, but I think he is hurt and playing through it. Agreed

I think Herbert is due for some more regression, which could still mean a solid week.  I think he struggles some against New England this week.  I also think that impacts Allen.  I think Ekeler is the play. I think Herbert has some good games left but I don't think this week is it. Indy D is sneaky good.

I like Russ, but he is expensive.  I could see stacking him with Carson and Lockett.

I think this is an A Jones week, so I am out on Rodgers and Adams (risky move).

Struggling to find a QB I love this week, so I am leaning toward:  Russ, Goff, Carr, Cousins, and Fitz are all being considered. Same problem I had which was how I came up with Cousins & Fitz. Not super excited about that but other than Mahomes, not sure there is a good matchup/stud out there this week.

I want nothing to do with Montgomery.  No thanks.  I do not care about the matchup or last week's performance or number of touches.  I will find value elsewhere -- give me Gaskin over Montgomery.

I like Cook and Henry.  Who doesn't?  I am just not sure I can fit them in this week.  I will be using alot of Chubb and Jones this week. Teetering a bit on Henry this week. Not because I don't think he gets his but because if I were Vrabel, I'd sure as hell be looking at the CLE secondary who is down 2 starters and wasn't that good to begin with and be thinking, "how do I exploit THAT since we know every one is going to gear up to stop Henry?" Starting to think AJ Brown might have a day but snagging both Henry & Brown eats up a chunk of salary. Will explore that later and see what a LU with them in it looks like.

I will be scouring the mid-tier WRs it appears this week.  Spending around $6K for guys like Davis, Sheppard, Pittman, Cooks, along with some Kupp and Coutee mixed in.

I like Waller and he is due for a big week, but I am not sure I can afford him.  I will throw darts at several TEs, but at this point I am not sure who stands out.  I will probably just hope to find an affordable coloration that fits the rest of the lineup. #### Waller, he's screwed me all season. Done with him. Sign me up for Ebron or Rudolph.

If I am paying up at defense, I like Miami and Seattle.  If I am middle tiering it give me Green Bay or Chicago.  For cheap D, I like Detroit, Atlanta, New England, and Jets.

These are my early thoughts for this week...what say you?

 

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7 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

Tannehill/Brown stack, bring it back with Chubb. That's my core lineup. 

Threw one together with this core, don’t love it, don’t hate it

Tannehill/Chubb,Taylor/Brown,Kupp,Cooks/Hockenson/Landry/Jets

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I don't hear it put this way too much, but we are bringing up ownership % a lot in here, and how much/how little chalk to hit on in our gpp LUs.   The 4for4 pod had another good strategy section and they broke it down in a easy way:

1.  Have one or two 5% or under players in your LUs. 

2.  Have a total of 100-140 when you add up the projected ownership %s.   He said the typical range for the Milly winners this year is 110-120, so that is more ideal for huge field gpps, and we could probably be in that 130-140 range for a smaller, SE gpp.    So the average player is 12-13% owned.    

Just a good way to think about it.  Like we talk in here, we probably shouldn't have a LU with all 5% players in it (45 total), but we also probably shouldn't have a LU with all chalky 20+% players (180).  

 

They also had another point that looking at stats and LU makeups in the SE or 3max type of gpps, that people aren't stacking enough in those.   The point was that if you are in something like a 100-1000 person gpp, a lot of the people are using a cash LU and having a game stack right in there really helps.  

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8 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

The point was that if you are in something like a 100-1000 person gpp, a lot of the people are using a cash LU and having a game stack right in there really helps.  

Thanks for this tip.  I typically put all my entries into the massive field GPPs so I'll throw a few of the same entries into these smaller sized GPP this weekend  :thumbup:

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1 minute ago, Steeler said:

Thanks for this tip.  I typically put all my entries into the massive field GPPs so I'll throw a few of the same entries into these smaller sized GPP this weekend  :thumbup:

If I understood their point is that in these small gpps people tend to do a more average, cash LU, so IF you get that stack right you really put yourself ahead of the field most weeks.  He specifically said more of that 3-4 player game stack.  In a small gpp you might not have to nail the rest of the lineup to be at the top, unlike a huge gpp where there is every combo of LUs in there and the winner might need 30 more points than a winner of a 1000 person gpp.    

They didn't specifically address it, but I would also assume that in a small gpp that stack might be enough and you don't have  to worry so much about getting another correlation or two in that lineup also like you probably have to in order to take down the Milly Maker.   IE for a small gpp, instead of doing Cousins + Jefferson (more of that single stack, cash LU they were talking about in small gpps), and then Chubb + AJ Brown, it might be better to do Cousins + Jefferson + Rudolph + J.Rob and then fill in the rest.   

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So just glancing at ownership, Houston is heavy owned despite being only the 10th highest projected Vegas total and being an underdog.   Having the QB2, Rbs 5 and 6, WR1, and TE1 from that team really stuck out to me as being a spot to fade or being underweight on to start the week.  

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6 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

So just glancing at ownership, Houston is heavy owned despite being only the 10th highest projected Vegas total and being an underdog.   Having the QB2, Rbs 5 and 6, WR1, and TE1 from that team really stuck out to me as being a spot to fade or being underweight on to start the week.  

I will be under weight compared to the field.

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Lastly on the topic of ownership %, I thought it was interesting some of the names that were popping gpps when looking at the smash/gpp% odds vs. the ownership projections and getting a feel for what might be bad chalk.  

On FD is was basically every RB was over owned, so I am not sure how to process that.   Also on that chart Chubb and Henry both had very low odds to smash, which I found odd, but don't know why that was.  

2 RBs that stood out as gpp plays from the chart were A.Jones and D.Harris.   

The QB/WRs that were really sticking out were Rodgers + Adams and T.Hill +M.Thomas, and also including Chark in a comeback (if healthy), and Ridley in that Hill/Thomas stack.  

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

So just glancing at ownership, Houston is heavy owned despite being only the 10th highest projected Vegas total and being an underdog.   Having the QB2, Rbs 5 and 6, WR1, and TE1 from that team really stuck out to me as being a spot to fade or being underweight on to start the week.  

My current $1 SE is sort of opposite of that

Rivers,Jones,Chubb,Pittman,Coutee,Metcalf,Burton,Ekeler,GBay

with everyone thinking the Colts will just run it down the throat of Hou its an easy but risky way of being different

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36 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

My current $1 SE is sort of opposite of that

Rivers,Jones,Chubb,Pittman,Coutee,Metcalf,Burton,Ekeler,GBay

with everyone thinking the Colts will just run it down the throat of Hou its an easy but risky way of being different

@Raging weasel - again, just spitballing and talking out loud, but I was curious to add up the #s for this LU, and it was only 68% for ownership with 1/2 the LU being 5% and under.   You probably don't need much besides that Indy stack to help you stand out.  

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

@Raging weasel - again, just spitballing and talking out loud, but I was curious to add up the #s for this LU, and it was only 68% for ownership with 1/2 the LU being 5% and under.   You probably don't need much besides that Indy stack to help you stand out.  

Was already thinking of pulling out Jones,Coutee and Burton and adding Akins and whatever at RB and WR I can afford.

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54 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Was already thinking of pulling out Jones,Coutee and Burton and adding Akins and whatever at RB and WR I can afford.

 Maybe something like keeping Rivers/Pittman/Burton, then going with Cooks?    That could still leave a core of something like Chubb, Jones, J.Rob, Jefferson, GB D and have some low owned mixed with chalk.  

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

 Maybe something like keeping Rivers/Pittman/Burton, then going with Cooks?    That could still leave a core of something like Chubb, Jones, J.Rob, Jefferson, GB D and have some low owned mixed with chalk.  

Changed it to this-

Rivers Cook Eckler Pittman Sheppard Metcalf Atkins Taylor Chargers

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10 hours ago, beer 30 said:

Threw one together with this core, don’t love it, don’t hate it

Tannehill/Chubb,Taylor/Brown,Kupp,Cooks/Hockenson/Landry/Jets

I'm trying to unlock the Raiders/Jets outcome. On paper, the Jets are the least talented team in the league with the worst coach in the league and have no shot at beating anyone. Betting against Gase is almost always a winning bet. However, after last week's debacle at Atlanta and Josh Jacobs being out, maybe the Jets can win this week. I'm still mad at Carr. He torpedoed most of my lineups last week. With all that said, the Raiders should still smash the Jets. 

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4 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

I'm trying to unlock the Raiders/Jets outcome. On paper, the Jets are the least talented team in the league with the worst coach in the league and have no shot at beating anyone. Betting against Gase is almost always a winning bet. However, after last week's debacle at Atlanta and Josh Jacobs being out, maybe the Jets can win this week. I'm still mad at Carr. He torpedoed most of my lineups last week. With all that said, the Raiders should still smash the Jets. 

Makes sense. I've bought into the Raiders too much this year, whether it's Waller or Renfro or Jacobs, I pick them on their off week so I'm swearing off them for a while. Even against the Jets.

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5 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Lastly on the topic of ownership %, I thought it was interesting some of the names that were popping gpps when looking at the smash/gpp% odds vs. the ownership projections and getting a feel for what might be bad chalk.  

On FD is was basically every RB was over owned, so I am not sure how to process that.   Also on that chart Chubb and Henry both had very low odds to smash, which I found odd, but don't know why that was.  

2 RBs that stood out as gpp plays from the chart were A.Jones and D.Harris.   

The QB/WRs that were really sticking out were Rodgers + Adams and T.Hill +M.Thomas, and also including Chark in a comeback (if healthy), and Ridley in that Hill/Thomas stack.  

On DK, Henry is now $9200 (2nd most expensive RB). His avg price this season has been $7700. I'm not saying to fade him in DK, but it's difficult to add him at that price. Even at 7700, he's not even a coin flip to smash. Over half his games this year have been under 20pts. He's the guy you want when he's low owned against a tough matchup. 

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3 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Makes sense. I've bought into the Raiders too much this year, whether it's Waller or Renfro or Jacobs, I pick them on their off week so I'm swearing off them for a while. Even against the Jets.

Right so you know this will be the week when they probably smash because we all swore them off. Right now I'm looking at Raiders WR, they are cheap and could factor in. Booker will also factor in now, although it really depends on how many points the Jets can score. 

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25 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Right so you know this will be the week when they probably smash because we all swore them off. Right now I'm looking at Raiders WR, they are cheap and could factor in. Booker will also factor in now, although it really depends on how many points the Jets can score. 

:lmao: 100% guaranteed 

Relevant, Jacobs ruled out for Sunday https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/51376/josh-jacobs 

Devontae Booker is his backup but seems unimpressive so far in his time on the field.

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I didn't realize tool was free.  HERE is the ASA correlation tool.     Fun to poke around and maybe use this to help break ties for some pairings for stacks.   

Ie - I was poking around with the Packers, and Adams has decent correlation with Lazard, but slight negative with Tonyan.  

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59 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

On DK, Henry is now $9200 (2nd most expensive RB). His avg price this season has been $7700. I'm not saying to fade him in DK, but it's difficult to add him at that price. Even at 7700, he's not even a coin flip to smash. Over half his games this year have been under 20pts. He's the guy you want when he's low owned against a tough matchup. 

I guess I am still not 100% sure what their threshold is for "smashing".   I would guess about 4x+ minimum (50K in salary for team, probably needing about 200 -220pts to be in contention most weeks.   So yeah, I guess that is about 36-37 points for him.   Looking back the last 2 seasons, that's happened 4 times (14%), but I would guess they are also looking at career.   I was just surprised they had him at 5% and Cook at 22% probability, when he has hit 38pts only 2 times in that same time period.   

I am guessing baked in there is calculations of Vegas totals, D they are going against, home/road, etc.. as well as the above info.  Just thought it was weird. 

 

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43 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I didn't realize tool was free.  HERE is the ASA correlation tool.     Fun to poke around and maybe use this to help break ties for some pairings for stacks.   

Ie - I was poking around with the Packers, and Adams has decent correlation with Lazard, but slight negative with Tonyan.  

NM - I guess this is usually part of the sub, on the podcast he said he would open it up for a few days for people to poke around.  

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25 minutes ago, Steeler said:

I thought the rule of them was 4x salary on DK and 3x salary on FD.

I am guessing that would be the minimum, but 200 on DK and 180 on FD isn't taking down gpps most weeks, so I would guess that 4x is even low.  

That said, context matters.  If you have Henry "only" go for 3x, and you have some 4K crapper WR go for 6x, that is a way to victory too.  

For me that smash tool has become a quick glance at what might be good and bad chalk for the week.  I was just a bit surprised specifically by the differences between RBs at similar salaries in Robinson vs. chubb and Cook vs. Henry and how much higher the J.Rob and Cook were vs. the other two.  

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8 hours ago, beer 30 said:

:lmao: 100% guaranteed 

Relevant, Jacobs ruled out for Sunday https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/51376/josh-jacobs 

Devontae Booker is his backup but seems unimpressive so far in his time on the field.

I did also go back and look at the Raiders @ Jets from Nov. 2019. Raiders lost 34-3. Pretty much the same game they played last week against Atlanta. Maybe the Jets D is the smash play this week. 

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I guess I need to stop looking at ownership % early in the week.  Rodgers and Adams go from less than 5% projected to #3 QB and #2 WR.    That's where I was building LUs.  I guess if I still do that I might have to look at different RBs.  

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51 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Anyone interested in Swaim?

Absolutely not, but I am all in a Firsker.  He will be the primary TE in the passing game.  Swaim, from what I understand, is more of a blocker. Firsker's low cost help me fit Cook and Henry in my lineups. Not expecting great things, but as long as he can get me a few yards and a TD he will be worth it.

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I want to know who else people are paying for then.   It looks like Booker and Firskser/Akins are now chalk along with D.Mont and Ekeler.     That is what drove up Rodgers and Adams ownership a bit now I guess?   

I need to reassess what I want to do tomorrow.  I usually like weeks like this were names like Booker, Montgomery, and cheap TEs are looking to be uber chalk, since that is not names that I would probably want to play anyway.  

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I want to know who else people are paying for then.   It looks like Booker and Firskser/Akins are now chalk along with D.Mont and Ekeler.     That is what drove up Rodgers and Adams ownership a bit now I guess?   

I need to reassess what I want to do tomorrow.  I usually like weeks like this were names like Booker, Montgomery, and cheap TEs are looking to be uber chalk, since that is not names that I would probably want to play anyway.  

I think you will find a lot of Keke Coutee as well.  One name I am using heavily, and I expect others to as well , Myles Gaskins

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15 minutes ago, LoneWolf said:

I think you will find a lot of Keke Coutee as well.  One name I am using heavily, and I expect others to as well , Myles Gaskins

Yeah, Gaskin is #5.   Looking like a popular build of having 2 of:  Ekeler/J.Rob/Booker/Montgomery/Gaskin.  

Looking at my original OL vs. DL list,  the leverage spots/pivots I am currently looking at are:

  • NE RB instead of one of those 5K Rbs projected at 20% + ownership.   
  • Chubb or M.Sanders instead of J.Rob or Ekeler.  
  • Try for both Henry and Cook and go with a completely different build than most.  

 

I am trying to stick to that top 10 rush potentials I listed.  Seems like a majority of the time I see a RB do well on the week and was low owned, they were on that chart - ie Henry vs. Balt.   So of the top chalky RBs, I think I like Booker the least, and will flat out fade him.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

Yeah, Gaskin is #5.   Looking like a popular build of having 2 of:  Ekeler/J.Rob/Booker/Montgomery/Gaskin.  

Looking at my original OL vs. DL list,  the leverage spots/pivots I am currently looking at are:

  • NE RB instead of one of those 5K Rbs projected at 20% + ownership.   
  • Chubb or M.Sanders instead of J.Rob or Ekeler.  
  • Try for both Henry and Cook and go with a completely different build than most.  

 

I am trying to stick to that top 10 rush potentials I listed.  Seems like a majority of the time I see a RB do well on the week and was low owned, they were on that chart - ie Henry vs. Balt.   So of the top chalky RBs, I think I like Booker the least, and will flat out fade him.  

 

 

I also like James White this week.  With Burkhead not vulturing TDs.  White's has excellent upside. @FatNate has been pimping Chubb forever, and for good reason. Not sure about Sanders. I'm sure he can play well, but how much work will he see.

I was able to put together a few Henry/Cook lineups that I don't hate.  Sure it involves dumpster diving (Coutee, Firsker, JAX), but the rest looks pretty good.

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Yet another thing that stood out looking at ownerships is that it doesn't seem like a lot of triple stacking or game stacking going on or at least built into projections.   I think the only examples that stood out are LaR with Kupp and Woods being WRs 3 and 4, and Houston - were damn near everybody is owned highly.  

SO - I am looking at that one pivot for the game stack if I use those or just making sure I game stack in general.  Examples:

  • in the Houston game, use an Indy player.   Burton at 1/7th the ownership of Akins?  Hilton or Pittman at 1/4th the owner ship of Cooks?
  • GB is great - just include Lazard or Tonyan in there or have a player like Sanders on the comeback.  Rodgers and Adams are owned, but nobody else in the game is.  
  • Throw Kirk in that Goff-Woods-Kupp game stack.  
  • Looks like with Thielen going and other cheap TES eating ownership, Rudolph is barely owned.  Doing Cousins-WR - Rudolph + Chark is an interesting way into that game.  

 

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9 minutes ago, LoneWolf said:

I also like James White this week.  With Burkhead not vulturing TDs.  White's has excellent upside. @FatNate has been pimping Chubb forever, and for good reason. Not sure about Sanders. I'm sure he can play well, but how much work will he see.

I was able to put together a few Henry/Cook lineups that I don't hate.  Sure it involves dumpster diving (Coutee, Firsker, JAX), but the rest looks pretty good.

Honestly, 0 clue, but GB just made Montgomery look like a star and I think people like Sanders' skills more.  He is lower on my list, and I am currently just thinking about him in GB/Philly game stacks or as a secondary correlation like Sanders + Adams.  

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6 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I want to know who else people are paying for then.   It looks like Booker and Firskser/Akins are now chalk along with D.Mont and Ekeler.     That is what drove up Rodgers and Adams ownership a bit now I guess?   

I need to reassess what I want to do tomorrow.  I usually like weeks like this were names like Booker, Montgomery, and cheap TEs are looking to be uber chalk, since that is not names that I would probably want to play anyway.  

Cash or gpp? 

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