Who are you getting rid of? - Players i hope to trade before it's too late: Gaskin, Gallman, Beasley?
Who are you targeting? - Some names outside of the obvious: Gabriel Davis, Jaguars pass catchers, Trautman, Kmet, Mooney, Wentz!, Darrynton Evans
The collective scuttlebutt forecasts inevitable doom on Zeke. As I write this, folks are tossing dirt on his proverbial grave. He’s only 26 and should have Dak and a healthy line next year. He is absolutely a top 5 back for me. Take advantage of the groupthink and buy for .85 cents on the dollar- you will get top level production for at least 2-3 seasons. He is making an obscene amount of money- so they will use him extensively. Pollard may cut slightly into his snaps, but Zeke will again be a bell cow- a truly difficult commodity to find.Who are you getting rid of?
Who are you targeting?
It's tough on Zeke.The collective scuttlebutt forecasts inevitable doom on Zeke. As I write this, folks are tossing dirt on his proverbial grave. He’s only 26 and should have Dak and a healthy line next year. He is absolutely a top 5 back for me. Take advantage of the groupthink and buy for .85 cents on the dollar- you will get top level production for at least 2-3 seasons. He is making an obscene amount of money- so they will use him extensively. Pollard may cut slightly into his snaps, but Zeke will again be a bell cow- a truly difficult commodity to find.
This. I own Henry & Kamara and just missed out on b2b ships with them. If I can get Swift/Taylor+ for one of them I think I'd do it. Post-Brees Kamara is a scary thought.I’d also be pretty motivated to turn Cook, Henry, or Kamara into someone like Swift/Gibson/Taylor+.
I agree with you. I'm thinking the time to sell may not be right now. In so many quarters, the collective wisdom being dispersed via podcasts, Twitter, and websites is that Zeke is a "sell now" player. That collective information set takes some time to permeate into the larger FF collective thought process, so you may need to wait a few weeks before making a deal. I have noticed on many of the podcasts I listen to and on the websites that I frequent, the expert FF class has made the clarion call to sell. Let this information have time to disperse and settle- then make your move. To my initial point, you'll likely have to pay .85 on the dollar, so it's not like anyone is stealing him, but he will be a relative value and worth exploring the possibilities for.It's tough on Zeke.
Sure, Dak being back will help. But he hasn't looked the same all season. Pollard will probably be taking more carries away next season.
Zeke will still carry name value. Owners will argue that he'll bounce back with Dak. They'll still try to sell him as a top 5 back. I don't think there's going to be a substantial discount at this point. I was asked for Lamb and then some to get Zeke. If I can get a legitimate discount on the guy, I'd give it a shot. But I just haven't seen that.
Huh? He didn't hit 10 or 110 once this season with any QB (granted, he got close). He put up decent numbers with Hill, but zero TD's and he faced terrible defenses in those games.If I didn't already own him, I'd be trying to get Michael Thomas. Time was probably mid-season to get him, but owners might still be bitter. He showed with Taysom that he can still be a 10/110 guy week in and week out.
Good list. I agree with every one of these.Here are some buys:
Brandon Aiyuk-The kid is a monster...won't come cheap but this maybe the cheapest you will get him.
Mike Gesicki-Right on the verge of a major breakout.
Allen Robinson-Somehow only 27 years old...gonna be a UFA...we know his floor with the Bears but what happens if he goes to a plum landing spot.
Michael Pittman-Injury limited his rookie year but he looks like the real deal.
Noah Fant-Just a matter of time before he joins that upper-tier of TEs.
Josh Reynolds-gotta believe the Rams let him walk...possibility he goes to a place where he gets a chance to start.
Will Fuller-The Texans want to keep Deshaun happy and they don't have a pick in the first two rounds...my guess is they re-sign him and he picks up where he left off.
Agree wholeheartedly. The Jags are taking Lawrence and have needs at all of the other positions. Sure, they'll add a depth piece at RB but Robinson has shown he can handle a significant workload. There is no reason for the Jags to invest significant capital at this position. They will sign a depth FA and perhaps draft a back, but unless something fluky happens, like a Harris or Etienne falling lower than they should, I see the Jags will be drafting at other positions with early round capital.If I didn’t already own him, I’d say James Robinson. I have a feeling the folks worried about him being replaced don’t actually own him; but if that’s not the case in your leagues, he’s still easy money. He’s really good - really.
Not a huge fan of this for fantasy, especially at the price you'd have to pay now. Typically a run heavy offense, and we've yet to see what he can do with a healthy Kittle and Deebo. I just don't see enough targets there when they are all healthy for consistent fantasy production. I love the talent.Here are some buys:
Brandon Aiyuk-The kid is a monster...won't come cheap but this maybe the cheapest you will get him.
Samuel is very interesting...a lot to process with him...a boatload of talent and another guy who does not appear to be aging as he is only 24...gonna be an UFA...after teasing us for while he appears to be "settling in" in kind of a hybrid role which can be tricky to figure out fantasywise...do the Panthers re-sign him (they seem to be in decent cap shape) or does a team make him a silly offer (at his age that is a possibility) and if he goes elsewhere is he used the same way...great call putting him on this list...how do you value him right now?Good list. I agree with every one of these.
I’d add Perriman as an older and more proven, but equally affordable version of Reynolds. He’s a quality deep threat who I could see putting up ~800/5 in a good landing spot.
And Curtis Samuel as a more expensive version.
Good points and I understand them but I think he is so talented they will not hold him back...he is one of my top targets this offseason.Not a huge fan of this for fantasy, especially at the price you'd have to pay now. Typically a run heavy offense, and we've yet to see what he can do with a healthy Kittle and Deebo. I just don't see enough targets there when they are all healthy for consistent fantasy production. I love the talent.
I just offered the 2.08 for Samuel and was shot down. Will try and add to it. My hope is he moves on where he'll be featured more as a traditional reciever. I think he proved he can handle the gig this year.Samuel is very interesting...a lot to process with him...a boatload of talent and another guy who does not appear to be aging as he is only 24...gonna be an UFA...after teasing us for while he appears to be "settling in" in kind of a hybrid role which can be tricky to figure out fantasywise...do the Panthers re-sign him (they seem to be in decent cap shape) or does a team make him a silly offer (at his age that is a possibility) and if he goes elsewhere is he used the same way...great call putting him on this list...how do you value him right now?
I picked up Penny in my salary cap/auction league last offseason (I'm a Carson owner) and stashed him on my IR for the season. Got him for $1/5 yrs so no investment other than tying up an IR spot for the year.Rashaad Penny may be SEA's RB1 next year. Both Carson and Hyde are FAs. SEA not much cap space. Penny if you remember was their 1st rd pick in 2018. A sneaky claim right now.
I have a similar concern. I'd like to sell Kamara in the one league where I have him, but I think the window may have been in-season (for teams not competing this past season, obviously). Maybe I'm wrong but I think many people will lower his value because of the QB change.This. I own Henry & Kamara and just missed out on b2b ships with them. If I can get Swift/Taylor+ for one of them I think I'd do it. Post-Brees Kamara is a scary thought.
I suspect the fact that he set records on championship week will stick in people’s minds.I have a similar concern. I'd like to sell Kamara in the one league where I have him, but I think the window may have been in-season (for teams not competing this past season, obviously). Maybe I'm wrong but I think many people will lower his value because of the QB change.
I have put some time into looking at this and posted some of the things I have found.The collective scuttlebutt forecasts inevitable doom on Zeke. As I write this, folks are tossing dirt on his proverbial grave. He’s only 26 and should have Dak and a healthy line next year. He is absolutely a top 5 back for me. Take advantage of the groupthink and buy for .85 cents on the dollar- you will get top level production for at least 2-3 seasons. He is making an obscene amount of money- so they will use him extensively. Pollard may cut slightly into his snaps, but Zeke will again be a bell cow- a truly difficult commodity to find.
I doubt this. But I love the call anyways.Rashaad Penny may be SEA's RB1 next year. Both Carson and Hyde are FAs. SEA not much cap space. Penny if you remember was their 1st rd pick in 2018. A sneaky claim right now.
Great write up on Moss/Singletary.If I own Zack Moss or Singletary, I would try to pick the other one up for cheap.
The bolded is why I am holding on to Vaughn with some guarded optimism. While Jones has exceeded most people’s expectations this year, he’s got some limitations in his game. Unlike Jones, Vaughn was an Arians draft pick and never underestimate a coach’s desire to eventually insert his own guys, especially an RB friendly coach like Arians.menobrown said:Vaughn- James White signing in Tampa assuming Brady runs it back is a concern but if not Vaughn should at minimum have the third down role next year and ROJO will be entering the last year of his deal to boot. He looked quite good to me against the woeful Lions and never forget David Johnson spent his rookie season with Arians buried behind Chris Johnson and Ellington until they got hurt.
he has 2 years left, signed thru 2022kareem Hunt - still just 25 years old. One year left on his contract with the Browns.
As someone who also owns Henry and Kamara, I hope I’m not just getting big eyes for my own players here, but I am not in a hurry to move them. I recognize that means I’ll likely miss the window and they may retire off my roster. But both are unique runners who don’t seem to take a ton of big hits and may have atypical aging curves, and as I just won back to back ships with em myself and will be the favorite going into next year (in large part due to their production), I have a hard time seeing them being worth more to the teams holding these young guys than they are to me. If you can get a young guy who’s almost as good plus a first go for it, but the swift and Gibson owners didn’t make the playoffs and aren’t likely to throw a potentially high first at trading in their 2nd year guy for an older guy. I’m not really trying to gamble on a Taylor/dobbins type duplicating championship level production as someone who’s winning now and collecting all the prize money. If that means I’m rebuilding 4 years down the line so be ittombonneau said:This. I own Henry & Kamara and just missed out on b2b ships with them. If I can get Swift/Taylor+ for one of them I think I'd do it. Post-Brees Kamara is a scary thought.
A thousand pardons, your majesty. He showed he can be a 9/100 guy with Hill. My point is even with Hill in he showed he could be a consistent ppr machine. Throwing out the bizarre Denver game he was:humpback said:Huh? He didn't hit 10 or 110 once this season with any QB (granted, he got close). He put up decent numbers with Hill, but zero TD's and he faced terrible defenses in those games.
Yeah I feel you. I'm in no hurry, and I had eeked out a win in the semis I might rightfully have that same entrenched endowment effect bias as you. I think you're totally right though in that it will be tough to have a good trading partner who can send you a back in return. The only good way to move them is if you yourself are already sitting on a Dobbins or Swift and can roll the dice moving one for a top tier WR +As someone who also owns Henry and Kamara, I hope I’m not just getting big eyes for my own players here, but I am not in a hurry to move them. I recognize that means I’ll likely miss the window and they may retire off my roster. But both are unique runners who don’t seem to take a ton of big hits and may have atypical aging curves, and as I just won back to back ships with em myself and will be the favorite going into next year (in large part due to their production), I have a hard time seeing them being worth more to the teams holding these young guys than they are to me. If you can get a young guy who’s almost as good plus a first go for it, but the swift and Gibson owners didn’t make the playoffs and aren’t likely to throw a potentially high first at trading in their 2nd year guy for an older guy. I’m not really trying to gamble on a Taylor/dobbins type duplicating championship level production as someone who’s winning now and collecting all the prize money. If that means I’m rebuilding 4 years down the line so be it
Gesicki is a great call. This late season injury has dented him a bit, if he had been healthy I bet he would still be tearing it up and be harder to land.Boston said:Here are some buys:
Brandon Aiyuk-The kid is a monster...won't come cheap but this maybe the cheapest you will get him.
Mike Gesicki-Right on the verge of a major breakout.
Allen Robinson-Somehow only 27 years old...gonna be a UFA...we know his floor with the Bears but what happens if he goes to a plum landing spot.
Michael Pittman-Injury limited his rookie year but he looks like the real deal.
Noah Fant-Just a matter of time before he joins that upper-tier of TEs.
Josh Reynolds-gotta believe the Rams let him walk...possibility he goes to a place where he gets a chance to start.
Will Fuller-The Texans want to keep Deshaun happy and they don't have a pick in the first two rounds...my guess is they re-sign him and he picks up where he left off.
Where can I go in Vegas to bet on Samuel signing with the Pats? Seems like a total Pats WR and 100% target for them. Not sure that's a good thing for his fantasy value though.Boston said:Samuel is very interesting...a lot to process with him...a boatload of talent and another guy who does not appear to be aging as he is only 24...gonna be an UFA...after teasing us for while he appears to be "settling in" in kind of a hybrid role which can be tricky to figure out fantasywise...do the Panthers re-sign him (they seem to be in decent cap shape) or does a team make him a silly offer (at his age that is a possibility) and if he goes elsewhere is he used the same way...great call putting him on this list...how do you value him right now?
I'm with you but the issue with that is you're gonna have a lot of competition as every WR (and QB and probably TE) is gonna get linked to the Pats...their WR unit is an absolute disaster...no doubt he is a great fit, the age is right, they definitely have the cap space and there is no way they can solve their WR issues simply thru the draft...overall, this is shaping up to be the most fascinating offseason in the BB era...usually the least fun day to be a Patriot fan is the first day of free agency because it is typically a very quiet day but gotta believe that changes this year.Where can I go in Vegas to bet on Samuel signing with the Pats? Seems like a total Pats WR and 100% target for them. Not sure that's a good thing for his fantasy value though.
Sounds like I am going to be in the minority with Aiyuk but I am all in on him...fully understand your analysis and it makes a ton of sense but I think those players may open up things for him and we also have to remember he did a lot of damage with Mullens throwing to him as well...even if his targets are not huge I think like AJ Brown he is so talented he will be very productive.Gesicki is a great call. This late season injury has dented him a bit, if he had been healthy I bet he would still be tearing it up and be harder to land.
Aiyuk, as someone said, love the player, hate the situation. The offense still runs through Kittle, and then it's 1A/B with Deebo. I think Aiyuk is the kind of guy you wait to get end of next year or mid-season where he's had a 5 game stretch with like 10 catches. Because the talent is there and his situation will change. I just don't think it makes sense to pay a premium now when he's gonna be starting next year as potentially the 3rd or tied for second option on a run first team with question marks at QB.
Robinson is a great buy, WR1 at WR2 prices.
It’s really hard to say until he plays with a healthy Deebo. I think he is more talented than Aiyuk. However, I think its going to come down to how each is used in the offense and it could change game to game. Definitely a 1A/1B situation.Sounds like I am going to be in the minority with Aiyuk but I am all in on him...fully understand your analysis and it makes a ton of sense but I think those players may open up things for him and we also have to remember he did a lot of damage with Mullens throwing to him as well...even if his targets are not huge I think like AJ Brown he is so talented he will be very productive.
Agree that we have not seen them together so there is a definite unknown (the QB situation is also not settled yet as well)...I also think your point about game situations is very legit, especially with how they have used Deebo although they used Aiyuk in a few running situations as well that resulted in two TDs...if these three can stay on the field together this could turn into a dynamic offense but I do have serious concerns about Kittle's health because he just plays so hard, reminds me of Gronk where every time he gets hit I'm nervous he got hurt...ultimately I just have one of those fantasy-crushes on Aiyuk and I can site a bunch of past examples where I was absolutely right and totally whiffed on that feeling...will be real interesting to see how this offense looks next year as it has a chance to be a sleeping giant.It’s really hard to say until he plays with a healthy Deebo. I think he is more talented than Aiyuk. However, I think its going to come down to how each is used in the offense and it could change game to game. Definitely a 1A/1B situation.
I am right there with you on Aiyuk. I like Deebo, but he plays WR like a RB. Aiyuk is a more traditional WR. He looks to me like an emerging young talent at the WR position. If I had not already drafted Aiyuk, I would be trying to get him on my dynasty roster.Agree that we have not seen them together so there is a definite unknown (the QB situation is also not settled yet as well)...I also think your point about game situations is very legit, especially with how they have used Deebo although they used Aiyuk in a few running situations as well that resulted in two TDs...if these three can stay on the field together this could turn into a dynamic offense but I do have serious concerns about Kittle's health because he just plays so hard, reminds me of Gronk where every time he gets hit I'm nervous he got hurt...ultimately I just have one of those fantasy-crushes on Aiyuk and I can site a bunch of past examples where I was absolutely right and totally whiffed on that feeling...will be real interesting to see how this offense looks next year as it has a chance to be a sleeping giant.
When you say someone showed "that he can still be a 10/110 guy week in and week out.", and they haven't achieved either of those numbers even a single time, that's quite the hyperbole.A thousand pardons, your majesty. He showed he can be a 9/100 guy with Hill. My point is even with Hill in he showed he could be a consistent ppr machine. Throwing out the bizarre Denver game he was:
Obviously ypc is puke but that's another 120+ catch season.
- 9/104
- 9/105
- 8/84
But your stance is the exact reason why I list him as a great buy. He's an easy guy for two people to have drastic opposite opinions of.
Biabreakable said:I have put some time into looking at this and posted some of the things I have found.
I agree with you that he is a good buy target right now and I think the idea of his game being in decline is wrong and that he still has two possibly 3 strong seasons left in his career.
He has reached an point where a very young star RB can be argued against him due to productive seasons left. Swift and Taylor were 21 year old RB coming in. I don't think anyone would take these guys ahead of Elliot right now, but by the mid to end point of 2021 if they are producing similarly well to Elliot then maybe things will shift in their favor because of the quality years remaining. I don't think any of them have done enough to make that argument right now.