Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Your Local Epidemiologist ..... ACIP meeting for the Pfizer adolescent vaccine: Your cliff notes


Recommended Posts

Here's a blog about what's going on in the viral world these days.

Lots of facts. Lots of questioning.  No Political BS from either side. Please do not post anything political in here.

I've been following the page on FB for six months now. I should have made this post back then. Just good, solid, info.

Today's article is on the Covid-19 variants.
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/variants-in-the-us

Edited by Getzlaf15
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Love 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

A snipett...

 

Is there a variant surge?

We think so. The picture is messy, but here’s my best attempt…

It’s a difficult question to answer.

We can’t identify the variant for every COVID19 test. In order to do this, we would need a lot of technology, a lot of time, and a lot of money. The US just doesn’t have the infrastructure to make this possible right now.

So, we have to pick which COVID test gets analyzed. But this isn’t systematically done. First, we need a site that has the capability to identify variants (usually hospitals or universities). This isn’t as common as you would think. In Texas, for example, with a population of 29 million, we have 3 labs that can detect variants. And, even if a state has a site, we then need to pick which individual tests get analyzed. Because of this, it’s nearly impossible to get a “true” picture of variant spread in the US. It’s likely a biased picture.

Nonetheless, we need to pay attention to the % of new cases that are variants of concern

Why? We’ve started seeing a pattern. Once variants (like B.1.1.7) accounts for 50-60% of cases in an area, a surge begins. This is true regardless of vaccination rate (for now).

This was apparent in the UK. On December 21, 2020, 62% of UK cases were B.1.1.7. And, at this time, the UK was already well on its way to a surge.

This is about 25% of the article....

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, she's really good. I've posted several of her links in the last year in the Covid thread. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Yep, she's really good. I've posted several of her links in the last year in the Covid thread. 

She lives in Texas now, but she grew up with my twins in Mission Viejo and lived three doors down. (1994-2010).  Was part of a huge group of kids the same age on our block.

  • Like 1
  • Love 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Angry Beavers said:

so... even with the vaccination we are screwed............... got it! 

She does not say this.

ETA:  at least if you mean that vaccinated people are screwed.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
Link to post
Share on other sites

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/18-reasons-i-should-be-getting-a


 

A viral blog post is going around that lists 18 reasons explaining why someone should not get the COVID19 vaccine. This post was peppered with fear and, more damaging, misinformation, which is causing anxiety, confusion, and vaccine hesitancy in the community.

It’s clear the author doesn’t have a good grasp on the science. The author calls himself a “natural health nerd” blogger. From what I can find, he is not an epidemiologist, not a healthcare provider, not public health specialist, not an immunologist, and not anything that qualifies him to speak accurately on this topic.

So, I thought I would set the record straight….................

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Getzlaf15 changed the title to Your Local Epidemiologist ..... 18 reasons to get your shot
On 4/9/2021 at 11:50 AM, Getzlaf15 said:

Here's a blog about what's going on in the viral world these days.

Lots of facts. Lots of questioning.  No Political BS from either side. Please do not post anything political in here.

I've been following the page on FB for six months now. I should have made this post back then. Just good, solid, info.

Today's article is on the Covid-19 variants.
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/variants-in-the-us

I looked her up.  She is not local to me at all.  :shrug:

 

  • Thanks 1
  • Laughing 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/j-and-j-questions-answered-from-a

 

By now you’ve seen that Johnson and Johnson (JJ) has been stopped in the United States. My morning has been inundated with emergency meetings. While I catch my breath, I can give you a quick run down of questions I’ve been answering…

What happened?

Among the 6.8 million doses of JJ have been administered thus far, there have been 6 reported cases of a “rare and severe” blood clot.

All six cases occurred among women between the ages of 18 and 48

Symptoms occurred 6 to 13 days after vaccination

Of these 6 women, 1 has died and 1 is currently hospitalized

The CDC and FDA have recommended a pause in the use of JJ vaccinations until we can investigate these cases more. This “cluster” of cases indicates a possible safety signal........................

 

  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Getzlaf15 changed the title to Your Local Epidemiologist ..... J&J ?'s answered

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/jj-emergency-acip-meeting-cliff-notes
 

Today the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) had an emergency meeting regarding the Johnson and Johnson (JJ) vaccine and blood clotting events. In short, three major questions needed to be answered:

What happened?

Is this rate higher than the background rate?

Do we need to change our recommendations?

All in all, this process solidified by confidence in the vaccine process in the U.S. The amount of transparency, timeliness, and checks and balances has been refreshing.........

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Getzlaf15 changed the title to Your Local Epidemiologist ..... JJ: Emergency ACIP meeting cliff notes

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/both-mom-and-dad-are-vaccinated-but


 

Both mom and dad are vaccinated. But the kiddos (under 12) won’t be vaccinated until 2022. Now what?

Lack of guidance

While there are helpful CDC tips on deciding to go back to school or ensuring a child’s emotional wellbeing, there is zero federal guidance about this very situation. So, we have tough decisions to make.

I threw together some tips grounded in science:

There is risk in everything you and your kids do. Only YOU can outweigh benefit with risk. If you’re unsure, seek guidance from trusted sources, like your child’s healthcare provider.

There’s a small chance you can harbor the virus in your nasal passageway. So, if you want to continue to protect your kids, wear that mask in public. At the grocery store. At the park. At work. Even if no one else is. Own it. This will ensure that you don’t bring the virus back home to your kids.........................

 

  • Like 1
  • Laughing 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Getzlaf15 changed the title to Your Local Epidemiologist ..... Both mom and dad are vaccinated. But the kiddos aren't. Now what?
2 hours ago, belljr said:

And the 13-15 year olds?  :)

 

Pfizer has asked for emergency authorization for 12-15, no? I don't know the timeline, but I would think the approval comes soon.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Dragons said:

Pfizer has asked for emergency authorization for 12-15, no? I don't know the timeline, but I would think the approval comes soon.

I know. She mentioned the 12 year olds.  But we probably have a few months of parents vaccinated and kids not.  It took 6 weeks for original pfizer approval. So that time frame would put us in June before first shots are  even available

Edited by belljr
Link to post
Share on other sites

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/double-mutant-first-detected-in-india

 

Officially, the variant is called B.1.617.

It was first detected in India and is now the dominant strain in Maharashtra- Mumbai’s home state on the western coast. B.1.617 has also been detected in 20 other countries, including the United States...............

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Getzlaf15 changed the title to Your Local Epidemiologist ..... "Double mutant" first detected in India
  • Getzlaf15 changed the title to Your Local Epidemiologist ..... Women's health and the COVID19 vaccine

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/children-account-for-224-of-covid

 

Rampant spread among children

Children make, on average, 13.8% (or 3.78 million total cases) of all COVID19 cases in the U.S.

But this is changing. According to a American Academy of Pediatrics, last week children accounted for 22.4% of cases (71,649 out of 319,601 COVID diagnoses). Just one year ago, pediatric cases made up 3% of U.S. cases................

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Getzlaf15 changed the title to Your Local Epidemiologist ..... Children account for 22.4% of COVID cases And long COVID19 among children isn't looking good either.

Looks to me like the child percent is up because the vaccines are working and adult numbers are waning. Number of child cases in her chart looks fairly steady last 3 weeks.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/children-account-for-224-of-covid

 

Rampant spread among children

Children make, on average, 13.8% (or 3.78 million total cases) of all COVID19 cases in the U.S.

But this is changing. According to a American Academy of Pediatrics, last week children accounted for 22.4% of cases (71,649 out of 319,601 COVID diagnoses). Just one year ago, pediatric cases made up 3% of U.S. cases................

This seems wildly misleading on the surface.

Cases are falling fast almost everywhere, and kids are increasingly the only ones who haven't been vaxxed.  So it makes perfect sense the share of cases they comprise would be rising.  Even if the number of cases was flat (or declining) overall.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/acip-meeting-for-the-pfizer-adolescent?

Bottom Line: Things are looking good. Well, not just good, they are looking great. This trial was as clean as it can get. There is nothing (big) we didn't expect. This vaccine is incredibly safe. And works incredibly well. I strongly support the use of this vaccine among those aged 12+. And this is urgent. If I had an adolescent, I would get them the vaccine as soon as possible......

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Getzlaf15 changed the title to Your Local Epidemiologist ..... ACIP meeting for the Pfizer adolescent vaccine: Your cliff notes
17 hours ago, Getzlaf15 said:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/acip-meeting-for-the-pfizer-adolescent?

Bottom Line: Things are looking good. Well, not just good, they are looking great. This trial was as clean as it can get. There is nothing (big) we didn't expect. This vaccine is incredibly safe. And works incredibly well. I strongly support the use of this vaccine among those aged 12+. And this is urgent. If I had an adolescent, I would get them the vaccine as soon as possible......

My daughter has an appt for tomorrow. My son is 11 and will turn 12 in November. I would love for him to get vaccinated before our summer trip in August. Has anyone heard anything about his age group. Really want to just get him vaccinated tomorrow also since I’m sure there is no difference between a 12 year old and 11.5 year old. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, AcerFC said:

My daughter has an appt for tomorrow. My son is 11 and will turn 12 in November. I would love for him to get vaccinated before our summer trip in August. Has anyone heard anything about his age group. Really want to just get him vaccinated tomorrow also since I’m sure there is no difference between a 12 year old and 11.5 year old. 

Child studies take longer, not because of age alone, but because the dose needs to be assessed by weight.  I don't expect approval for the smaller kids all that soon.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mrs. Rannous said:

Child studies take longer, not because of age alone, but because the dose needs to be assessed by weight.  I don't expect approval for the smaller kids all that soon.

Ugh. I really want to have the relief of making any decisions or having anxiety for school next year for my 4 and 6 year olds.

Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Ugh. I really want to have the relief of making any decisions or having anxiety for school next year for my 4 and 6 year olds.

Eyeing September fwiw

Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Getzlaf15 said:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/acip-meeting-for-the-pfizer-adolescent?

Bottom Line: Things are looking good. Well, not just good, they are looking great. This trial was as clean as it can get. There is nothing (big) we didn't expect. This vaccine is incredibly safe. And works incredibly well. I strongly support the use of this vaccine among those aged 12+. And this is urgent. If I had an adolescent, I would get them the vaccine as soon as possible......

15 year old scheduled for Friday!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, belljr said:

Eyeing September fwiw

I'd bet money they move heaven and earth to approve the vaccine for K-6 before school starts.  Assuming there's enough test data, this is going to happen IMO.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Within an hour of the news our district sent an email out that they were partnering with Walgreens to setup vaccinations at the high school for 12-15 year olds. Anyone in the district can register their kid through the school to get signed up. Though with walk ups available all over I imagine most people will just do that.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

I'd bet money they move heaven and earth to approve the vaccine for K-6 before school starts.  Assuming there's enough test data, this is going to happen IMO.

PLEASE GOD YES

Link to post
Share on other sites

from her FB (which I'm sure will make it to the blog soon), she thinks the CDC's mask move today is suspect for several reasons, and "wouldn't be surprised if we have another wave this summer" :unsure: 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I barely wore a mask outside during the height of this thing. Maybe the CDC should have waited a bit for indoor but on a whole, unless it was crowded my kid or I didn't wear masks during batting practice all winter. I think the negative will be all the anti going no mask just cause but I'm not overly concerned, especially outside. :shrug:

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

from her FB (which I'm sure will make it to the blog soon), she thinks the CDC's mask move today is suspect for several reasons, and "wouldn't be surprised if we have another wave this summer" :unsure: 

She doesn’t say why she believes this. What is the evidence against vaccinated people not wearing masks indoors? All the evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are both protected from the virus and do not transmit the virus.

I’m guessing her stance is that unvaccinated anti-maskers will take advantage by pretending they are vaccinated and also not wear masks in public places which increases risk to folks who can’t get vaccinated. And she’s probably right from a social policy standpoint.

But frankly, the CDC should be scientists and follow the science. They shouldn’t be trying to be social scientists. Put the science out there and allow state/local governments and businesses determine what they want to do with that. 

Frankly, if places want to start treating people differently based on vaccination status and require people to show a vaccination card to not wear a mask, I’m all for it at this point. You want to go to a Knicks game and not wear a mask? Better provide a valid vaccination card and you can sit in this half of the stadium without a mask. No vaccination card? You go sit in this half of the stadium with a mask on and if you are observed without a mask you’re getting kicked out.

There are two great options for preventing viral spread: wear a mask or get vaccinated. Choose one or the other.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

I'd bet money they move heaven and earth to approve the vaccine for K-6 before school starts.  Assuming there's enough test data, this is going to happen IMO.

Moving heaven and earth will not speed up a trial.  I doubt that will happen.  Twelve and up though should be good to go.  If the teachers, etc, of the small ones are vaccinated, they should be okay, too.  At that point, hand washing and reasonable precautions should break up transmission.

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

She doesn’t say why she believes this. What is the evidence against vaccinated people not wearing masks indoors? All the evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are both protected from the virus and do not transmit the virus.

I’m guessing her stance is that unvaccinated anti-maskers will take advantage by pretending they are vaccinated and also not wear masks in public places which increases risk to folks who can’t get vaccinated. And she’s probably right from a social policy standpoint.

But frankly, the CDC should be scientists and follow the science. They shouldn’t be trying to be social scientists. Put the science out there and allow state/local governments and businesses determine what they want to do with that. 

Frankly, if places want to start treating people differently based on vaccination status and require people to show a vaccination card to not wear a mask, I’m all for it at this point. You want to go to a Knicks game and not wear a mask? Better provide a valid vaccination card and you can sit in this half of the stadium without a mask. No vaccination card? You go sit in this half of the stadium with a mask on and if you are observed without a mask you’re getting kicked out.

There are two great options for preventing viral spread: wear a mask or get vaccinated. Choose one or the other.

Oh I agree. One of the main reasons I think is bc we are nowhere near the ~60% which many believe is the threshold for herd immunity. We are just above half of that at this point. And vaccine resistance + the worry of variants popping up, after seeing what's going on in countries that haven't reached that threshold and started easing restrictions like we are here, I could see her summer wave theory happening. Locally, people are PROUD that they "never wore a mask" and "would never get this vaccine." And I'm pretty sure that's not just a local phenomenon.

Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Oh I agree. One of the main reasons I think is bc we are nowhere near the ~60% which many believe is the threshold for herd immunity. We are just above half of that at this point. And vaccine resistance + the worry of variants popping up, after seeing what's going on in countries that haven't reached that threshold and started easing restrictions like we are here, I could see her summer wave theory happening. Locally, people are PROUD that they "never wore a mask" and "would never get this vaccine." And I'm pretty sure that's not just a local phenomenon.

The herd immunity thresholds refer to the entire population not adults. We are barely above 40% currently. 60% is the low end of the range for herd immunity. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

She doesn’t say why she believes this. What is the evidence against vaccinated people not wearing masks indoors? All the evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are both protected from the virus and do not transmit the virus.

I’m guessing her stance is that unvaccinated anti-maskers will take advantage by pretending they are vaccinated and also not wear masks in public places which increases risk to folks who can’t get vaccinated. And she’s probably right from a social policy standpoint.

But frankly, the CDC should be scientists and follow the science. They shouldn’t be trying to be social scientists. Put the science out there and allow state/local governments and businesses determine what they want to do with that. 

Frankly, if places want to start treating people differently based on vaccination status and require people to show a vaccination card to not wear a mask, I’m all for it at this point. You want to go to a Knicks game and not wear a mask? Better provide a valid vaccination card and you can sit in this half of the stadium without a mask. No vaccination card? You go sit in this half of the stadium with a mask on and if you are observed without a mask you’re getting kicked out.

There are two great options for preventing viral spread: wear a mask or get vaccinated. Choose one or the other.

The problem isn't vaccinated people not wearing masks. The problem is this will likely reduce mask wearing among unvaccinated. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

The herd immunity thresholds refer to the entire population not adults. We are barely above 40% currently. 60% is the low end of the range for herd immunity. 

Yeah, I think we'll have to be thankful if we ever can reach even the bottom end 60% mark. Last figure I saw was ~35%, so yeah, still a long way to go. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Yeah, I think we'll have to be thankful if we ever can reach even the bottom end 60% mark. Last figure I saw was ~35%, so yeah, still a long way to go. 

I think the 35% is 2 weeks out from fully vaccinated. The fully vaccinated number is 41%

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...