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Cam Akers torn achilles - 7.20.21 - What do you see as the effects?


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31 minutes ago, Gally said:

Thomas tore his achilles twice.  Once was between his rookie and 2nd season (Feb 2011).  He came back fine from that for the 2011 season and was exceptional for most of his career.  He then tore it a second time in 2018 while playing for the Texans.  He didn't really come back from that tear.  

:Bag:

I knew he was injured early, but didn't remember it being a tear. Yeah I guess he recovered from that one just fine.

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23 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Watch this be Frank Gore's landing spot, its always Frank Gore. He's got 727 yards to pass Walter Payton, and I doubt his quitting until he gets there. 

I figured he was waiting until a decent team had a spot to fill close to the season opening. This may be the best chance he gets. 

14 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:
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Overall, these metrics suggest there might not be much of a dropoff from Akers to Henderson if Henderson can handle higher volume for a full season.

:shrug: it's possible Henderson does better than cam would have, partly because cam would have lost more carries to Henderson than Henderson does to the others. 🤷‍♂️

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1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

Henderson was really good last year 

That's an opinion and he sure was not an RB1 for anyone and not reliable in this offense. When you say he has no competition, you think the Rams are just going to roll with him and give him 250-300 touches? I don't see that at all. 

Gamelogs for Henderson, never was an owner treated to sure fire returns at any point last year that I can see. 

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Just traded for him a few days ago.  
 

gave Hunt and Mike Evans

got Akers and Corey Davis

 

Thought this would put my team over the top as I was in the semis last season. 
oh well…..

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12 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

That's an opinion and he sure was not an RB1 for anyone and not reliable in this offense. When you say he has no competition, you think the Rams are just going to roll with him and give him 250-300 touches? I don't see that at all. 

Gamelogs for Henderson, never was an owner treated to sure fire returns at any point last year that I can see. 

The Rams maybe the most aggressive team in the NFL as far as making trades, I fully expect them to bring in at least a quality vet here and I am thinking more than just a Bell or Peterson.

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19 minutes ago, Shawnky said:

Just traded for him a few days ago.  
 

gave Hunt and Mike Evans

got Akers and Corey Davis

 

Thought this would put my team over the top as I was in the semis last season. 
oh well…..

Sorry bro.  I drafted him  in not one but TWO guillotine leagues recently.   I was able to secure Henderson in one, "just in case", but seems likely I'll be cut early in both.

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21 minutes ago, Shawnky said:

Just traded for him a few days ago.  
 

gave Hunt and Mike Evans

got Akers and Corey Davis

 

Thought this would put my team over the top as I was in the semis last season. 
oh well…..

You made a great trade at the time and honestly I still think a good trade. I know I'd give Hunt+ for Akers all day long right now.

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Maybe this exercise just helps us realize that Akers was likely being overdrafted. I was high on him, too.

Trade for David Johnson. Lord knows they need the picks. 
:dreaming:

Edited by -jb-
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25 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

What's he worth now in a dynasty? He was pulling two future 1sts prior to this. A single 2nd probably?

Probably more in line with a pair of 2nds.  I feel like I'm aiming low and looking at the bottom of the RB2 ranks as potential trade targets.

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Since we're speculating about 37 year old Frank Gore, here's one. Malcolm Brown for a conditional late round pick. That's if Gerrid "draft me if you don't want your qb hit" Doaks lights it up training camp.

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26 minutes ago, Shawnky said:

Just traded for him a few days ago.  
 

gave Hunt and Mike Evans

got Akers and Corey Davis

 

Thought this would put my team over the top as I was in the semis last season. 
oh well…..

Sorry to hear that, that was an absolute steal for you 

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6 minutes ago, facook said:

Sorry bro.  I drafted him  in not one but TWO guillotine leagues recently.   I was able to secure Henderson in one, "just in case", but seems likely I'll be cut early in both.

You really only need to survive Week 1 in order to have access to an RB who could potentially salvage your season. 

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30 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

What's he worth now in a dynasty? He was pulling two future 1sts prior to this. A single 2nd probably?

Akers? 

I was just wondering that. Big risk due to the nature of the injury. I would guess he’s likely off the table. The Akers owner is dealing with a fresh wound, and would be unlikely to appreciate an “adding insult to injury” kind of offer.

if I’m an Akers owner I’m likely standing pat to see how he recovers. I’m never getting the value I though he was worth so unless I’m desperate, I'm gonna take a wait & see approach.

looking at it in a vacuum, I’d say a 2023 1st or a 2022 2nd & a 2022 3rd? somewhere in that neighborhood. 

But good luck getting a taker for that. The 3 Akers owners I know all thought he was gonna be a top 5 RB this year. 

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

The next NFL RB to return to pre-Achilles form will be the first.  It's the reason I'm completely discounting Marlon Mack this year.  I'm just pretending he's not even on their roster anymore.

True but Akers just turned 22.  Has a RB this young and talented torn an achillies before?

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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Akers? 

I was just wondering that. Big risk due to the nature of the injury. I would guess he’s likely off the table. The Akers owner is dealing with a fresh wound, and would be unlikely to appreciate an “adding insult to injury” kind of offer.

if I’m an Akers owner I’m likely standing pat to see how he recovers. I’m never getting the value I though he was worth so unless I’m desperate, I'm gonna take a wait & see approach.

looking at it in a vacuum, I’d say a 2023 1st or a 2022 2nd & a 2022 3rd? somewhere in that neighborhood. 

But good luck getting a taker for that. The 3 Akers owners I know all thought he was gonna be a top 5 RB this year. 

I'd go the opposite way and dump him for just about anything.

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I was fading Akers at his price anyway.....wasn't really buying the jump people were expecting....they brought in Stafford, Desean Jackson, etc....I feel this team was going to throw way more than people thought  Kupp/Woods/Jackson/Jefferson/Higbee....gonna chuck it

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23 minutes ago, -jb- said:

Maybe this exercise just helps us realize that Akers was likely being overdrafted. I was high on him, too.

Trade for David Johnson. Lord knows they need the picks. 
:dreaming:

He is a guy I immediately thought of…not sure what the deal with his bloated contract is but that could make sense for both teams…Sony Michel and Melvin Gordon are two other guys I could see them pursuing.

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Guess it depends what you’ve invested in him. 

Let's say you drafted him as a rookie. Probably a first round pick. Now what? Odds say he's toast, and you won't have him for a year regardless. Gimme a third and I smash accept.

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1 minute ago, -jb- said:

Let's say you drafted him as a rookie. Probably a first round pick. Now what? Odds say he's toast, and you won't have him for a year regardless. Gimme a third and I smash accept.

You may be right. It can be difficult to let go though. Thankfully I’m not in a position to have to worry about that.

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Have Henderson sitting on my bench as my RB5-6 in dynasty, what could he fetch me now?   I couldnt even give him to the Akers owner a couple months ago.

As for Rams, I think Lev Bell would be a better option than Gore or Gurley.   Lev can catch it.   But he is such a weirdo, and wont play unless he gets a bigger contract that comes with a July signing due to injury.   Rams could just go with what they have, RBBC and hope it works out week to week.   Let Stafford sling it 40+ times a game.

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Man, I feel terrible for Akers.  What a bummer.  McVay has to be kicking himself over letting Malcolm Brown walk for nothing. I think you'll see the Rams trade for one of the Texans many RB's - David Johnson seems like a good fit.  Lions should really deal Jamaal Williams there but can't imagine they will.

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3 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Lev Bell has not suffered any major injury of late that i know of. You gotta try and put an incentive laden contract together, one that will make him perform or be gone in camp. 

He would seem like the best of what they have on the streets. 

Good luck getting Bell to sign that.

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50 minutes ago, TS Garp said:

Man, I feel terrible for Akers.  What a bummer.  McVay has to be kicking himself over letting Malcolm Brown walk for nothing. I think you'll see the Rams trade for one of the Texans many RB's - David Johnson seems like a good fit.  Lions should really deal Jamaal Williams there but can't imagine they will.

Why would the Lions trade Williams who they just signed? After cutting Kerryon, they don't have experience at RB.

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Tom Brady just got closer to winning No 8 because now the Rams are going to be more of a passing team and their offense really is set up like San Fran thru a lot of their power running game and that has taken a massive hit before the train has even left the station. 

It's going to take away 1 to 2 Wins so if they were 11-6, I'd say they are more 9-8 now as an example. Personally I move them from about 12 wins to 10 and more of a wildcard berth team. 

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The Bucs for some counter perspective have RoJo and Fournette plus they are grooming 1-2 other RBs that can possibly be worked in to run the clock at times. The Bucs are deep and not just at RB but WR and TE they have several guys that can come in and do the job. Team like the Rams are top heavy and injuries take their toll much harder IMHO. 

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12 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Why would the Lions trade Williams who they just signed? After cutting Kerryon, they don't have experience at RB.

Because they're not going anywhere this year - they will be lucky to win 5 games. They're playing for 2023 and beyond. If you can get a 3rd rounder for Williams, it's a no-brainer.

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3 hours ago, Gally said:

Not really.  It's either torn or its not.  If it's not torn all the way through may actually be worse for future strength and subject to a complete tear later on.  But once it's torn its torn.  

 

I tore my achilles when I was 40.  Upon researching it I found it is the most common injury for active men between the ages of 35-45.  It eventually just gives up.  It was a terrible injury and I have never been the same.  It ruined my lunchtime pickup basketball career (the injury actually happened during a lunchtime pickup basketball game).   I have never been the same player since.  I was ready to make the leap to the afterwork pickup basketball league but never go my shot.  I was damaged goods never to be heard from again.

Playing Basketball has its risks. My cousin who was a pretty difficult guy for me to tackle hurt himself playing basketball and he never made me miss a tackle since.

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2 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Playing Basketball has its risks. My cousin who was a pretty difficult guy for me to tackle hurt himself playing basketball and he never made me miss a tackle since.

You play some aggressive basketball.

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26 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

It's going to take away 1 to 2 Wins 

I feel pretty confident the Vegas win totals will not be effected by Akers injury at all - I doubt any RB (outside of maybe Henry) changes the expected win total of an NFL team.

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4 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

The chance of Akers leading the league was close to zero imo. If healthy, no reason Henderson isn't a RB1. Be very surprised if he wasn't.

Akers was being over valued based on coach speak and a small sample size of games.

As of now Hendersons opportunity just increased maseively but I would advise people to temper their expectations of him as well.

Dont let one mistake lead to another.

 

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47 minutes ago, TS Garp said:

Because they're not going anywhere this year - they will be lucky to win 5 games. They're playing for 2023 and beyond. If you can get a 3rd rounder for Williams, it's a no-brainer.

Sure but this is a real team, not a Madden dynasty. Teams don't trade FA signings. What kind of message does that send to your players and future FA targets when you recruit a player and then trade him before he ever plays with you? Plus, nobody is giving a 3rd round pick for Jamaal Williams. 

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1 hour ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Tom Brady just got closer to winning No 8 because now the Rams are going to be more of a passing team and their offense really is set up like San Fran thru a lot of their power running game and that has taken a massive hit before the train has even left the station. 

It's going to take away 1 to 2 Wins so if they were 11-6, I'd say they are more 9-8 now as an example. Personally I move them from about 12 wins to 10 and more of a wildcard berth team. 

I think people a) way over estimate the value of a yet unproven RB and b) underestimate a team's ability to replace 625 rushing yards from 2020 (whether it be internally, through free agency, or via trade). It's not like the Rams lost Barry Sanders.

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3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I think people a) way over estimate the value of a yet unproven RB and b) underestimate a team's ability to replace 625 rushing yards from 2020 (whether it be internally, through free agency, or via trade). It's not like the Rams lost Barry Sanders.

Yep. I got tired of talking about how people were over valuing Akers.

I am sad that Akers got injured and I wish him the best. I also wish he would have stayed healthy though so I could have heard folks crying in the beer for over drafting him in the first place.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Sure but this is a real team, not a Madden dynasty. Teams don't trade FA signings. What kind of message does that send to your players and future FA targets when you recruit a player and then trade him before he ever plays with you? Plus, nobody is giving a 3rd round pick for Jamaal Williams. 

We can agree to disagree. The Lions should actively be trying to hoard picks and increase their chances of having the 1st pick in the 2022 draft.  This would do both.  Yes, it's brutal but it also works - many smart teams have done it, including the Browns and look at them now.  

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3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Guess it depends what you’ve invested in him. 

That is actually irrelevant.  If that is what you base your next move on then you are doing yourself a disservice.  That is already a sunk cost so now you need to move forward.  If you think this is a devastating injury that he cannot come back from moving him for anything is the right move.  I am not saying I think that to be the case.  Just there are lots of outcomes and depending on how you think dictates how you should proceed.  However, in none of those cases does what you invested in him previously come into play.  

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1 minute ago, Gally said:

That is actually irrelevant.  If that is what you base your next move on then you are doing yourself a disservice.  That is already a sunk cost so now you need to move forward.  If you think this is a devastating injury that he cannot come back from moving him for anything is the right move.  I am not saying I think that to be the case.  Just there are lots of outcomes and depending on how you think dictates how you should proceed.  However, in none of those cases does what you invested in him previously come into play.  

It’s always relevant. I get your point, but some folks see a 1st round investment as a reason to hold & see what happens rather than sell for anything you can get. 

On another note, while I have nothing invested in him, I know that when I’ve had a player go down with injury I find the vultures a bit difficult to stomach.

At least let me get my bearings before coming down my row trying to capitalize on my misfortune.

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2 hours ago, TS Garp said:

Because they're not going anywhere this year - they will be lucky to win 5 games. They're playing for 2023 and beyond. If you can get a 3rd rounder for Williams, it's a no-brainer.

Detroit knows they are not going anywhere but Williams is the kind of guy you want to change the culture there. On top of the fact that they probably don’t want to wear the tread too much on Swift this coming year. Williams is a tough-nosed, no-nonsense back and those are the kind of players the Lion’s are looking to add not get rid of.

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

It’s always relevant. I get your point, but some folks see a 1st round investment as a reason to hold & see what happens rather than sell for anything you can get. 

On another note, while I have nothing invested in him, I know that when I’ve had a player go down with injury I find the vultures a bit difficult to stomach.

At least let me get my bearings before coming down my row trying to capitalize on my misfortune.

I completely disagree with this statement.  What you paid for a player is irrelevant after that fact.  It doesn't matter if he was a first round pick anymore now that he tore his achilles (or whatever change has occurred).  If you try and use that as justification for not making a deal based on current situation you are doing yourself a disservice.  I am not saying he isn't still worth what you paid (not necessarily talking about Akers situation) but that has nothing to do with any deals moving forward.  That cost is already sunk.  

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3 minutes ago, Gally said:

That is actually irrelevant.  If that is what you base your next move on then you are doing yourself a disservice.  That is already a sunk cost so now you need to move forward.  If you think this is a devastating injury that he cannot come back from moving him for anything is the right move.  I am not saying I think that to be the case.  Just there are lots of outcomes and depending on how you think dictates how you should proceed.  However, in none of those cases does what you invested in him previously come into play.  

Sunk cost is a binary concept for most folks. I’ve been trying to explain it to clients and executives for 40+ years. People get it or they don’t, very few converts. It should be an intellectual exercise but for the vast majority of society it’s a mindset. Because of that entrenchment in their mind as a foundational belief system, they will hang onto it like grim death, no matter how many times life demonstrates to them the fallacy of not acknowledging the reality of a sunk cost.

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5 minutes ago, TS Garp said:

We can agree to disagree. The Lions should actively be trying to hoard picks and increase their chances of having the 1st pick in the 2022 draft.  This would do both.  Yes, it's brutal but it also works - many smart teams have done it, including the Browns and look at them now.  

I don't ever recall a player signing as a FA with a new team and being traded before he played for them. Nobody is offering a 3rd round pick for Williams. He was just a FA and basically got a 1 year deal. There's not a market for veteran mediocre backs. But sure, if the Rams offer a 3rd round pick, they should take it. 

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