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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun ***


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1 minute ago, culdeus said:

I mean it sounds like the Russian army isn't just dominating and the Russian people might not be just thrilled with this idea.  I think give it another day or two and they roll over though and everyone goes back to tik Tok

If you've been following this at all, there is no way Ukraine will roll over.  They recently started handing out semi-automatic rifles to their civilian population and have been planning for this possibility for 8 years.  This insurgency will not go quickly and may never get done.  Kiev will likely fall, but that will not spell the end of Ukraine as an independent nation.

Meanwhile our global economy is about to take a massive hit and it will be felt everywhere.  I'm sure the vast majority of Americans will be bored with the story in a few days, but there is also the possibility it proceeds even further into WW3 or causes a chain of events (Taiwan, Israel, etc.) that lead us there eventually.

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1 minute ago, Jayrod said:

This insurgency will not go quickly and may never get done.  Kiev will likely fall, but that will not spell the end of Ukraine as an independent nation.

Good chance.  Ukraine is about the size of what, Texas?  Not easy to control a place that big with 100,000 unenthusiastic troops.  Ukraine could make this a real PITA if they stick with it.  It will cost them horribly, however.  Putin has a little bit of Hitler in him - the eye towards ethnic history and the nursing of ancient grudges - well Hitler also was a big fan of brutal reprisals in conquered lands.  I suspect Putin will resort to this as well if the Ukrainians don't roll over.

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9 minutes ago, Binky The Doormat said:

 what?

There has been talk that China & Iran are watching how the West responds to this to see if their aims at Taiwan and Israel could be achieved.

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8 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

There has been talk that China & Iran are watching how the West responds to this to see if their aims at Taiwan and Israel could be achieved.

 

Literal WW3 if that happens.

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14 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

There has been talk that China & Iran are watching how the West responds to this to see if their aims at Taiwan and Israel could be achieved.

Wouldn't Israel demolish Iran?

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36 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

There has been talk that China & Iran are watching how the West responds to this to see if their aims at Taiwan and Israel could be achieved.

yeah that’s imaginative 

good for buns & eyeballs though from the 4th estate perspective 

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https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1496986321143107586?t=TMo4miihP2c3BKXms26_tQ&s=19

13 Ukrainian soldiers defending snake Island in the Black Sea. 

Reportedly audio from Snake Island in Black Sea:

-This is a Russian military ship. I suggest you lay down your weapons and surrender to avoid bloodshed and unnecessary victims. Otherwise we will open fire on you. 

-Russian military ship, go #### yourself. 

They were all killed

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42 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

yeah that’s imaginative 

good for buns & eyeballs though from the 4th estate perspective 

Yes, Israel is very far-fetched and an Arab world pipe dream.

Taiwan's situation has been tense for quite a while now and China has explicitly stated they want to assimilate the island fully into China.  The difference with them is that we WILL send US troops in on an altercation with Taiwan as would probably Australia, Japan and South Korea.

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6 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

I met Wladimir, back in 2008 when he was training in Florida. Not an ounce of fat on the guy, and super friendly. He actually did some training at the pool I worked at, practicing throwing punches underwater, for more resistance. Must have helped, because he won that fight.

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If you are like me and a little vague on what sanctioning a bank actually accomplishes, this is a fascinating tweet:

https://twitter.com/esaravalle/status/1496939883595812876/photo/3

When the US sanctions a bank, it can order other banks to stop any dealings, including intermediary services. The Treasury department named a Latvian bank as an "institution of primary money laundering".  Bank went under in 13 days. 

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53 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

Yes, Israel is very far-fetched and an Arab world pipe dream.

Taiwan's situation has been tense for quite a while now and China has explicitly stated they want to assimilate the island fully into China.  The difference with them is that we WILL send US troops in on an altercation with Taiwan as would probably Australia, Japan and South Korea.

probably the main difference in these three situations is purely chutzpah 

centibillionaire Lex Luther has it

closest thing to Bond villain evil we’ll ever see (hopefully) 

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12 minutes ago, massraider said:

If you are like me and a little vague on what sanctioning a bank actually accomplishes, this is a fascinating tweet:

https://twitter.com/esaravalle/status/1496939883595812876/photo/3

When the US sanctions a bank, it can order other banks to stop any dealings, including intermediary services. The Treasury department named a Latvian bank as an "institution of primary money laundering".  Bank went under in 13 days. 

This is why all the people bent out of shape over SWIFT are mistaken....that is but a layer of communication between international financial institutions.  You go after the institutions themselves.

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Russian assets nosedived as military attacks across Ukraine prompted emergency central bank action and additional sanctions from the U.S., wiping out almost $200 billion in stock-market value and roughly a third of the sovereign debt’s value.

The ruble sank to a record low, the cost of insuring Russian debt against default soared to the highest since 2009, and stocks ended the main trading session down 33% -- their biggest-ever retreat. The Bank of Russia said it will intervene in the foreign exchange market for the first time in years and take measures to tame volatility.

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11 minutes ago, Mister CIA said:

I can't help but think that things might go really bad for Russia.

 

What is the best case scenario here for them?  This isn't going to be like Afghanistan where we watch the Taliban just steam roll in and take over and nobody does a thing about it.  Maybe Putin thought it would go like that.

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1 minute ago, culdeus said:

 

What is the best case scenario here for them?  This isn't going to be like Afghanistan where we watch the Taliban just steam roll in and take over and nobody does a thing about it.  Maybe Putin thought it would go like that.

Ukrainians aren’t going to go without a fight, and with pretty much everyone in the area not named Belarus opposing this, he’s not going to have a good time. Of course, he might get some relief from China, but they’re not about to go out on a limb for him, either. In essence, a lot of people are dying for no good reason.

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29 minutes ago, eoMMan said:

Before this conflict (or maybe after), was it relatively safe for an American to vacation in Russia?

My sister just entered NATO airspace out of Moscow after flying around the north side of Belarus.  She's been several times now and never had any problems.  Including this visit.  She loves it there.

Haven't talked to her yet, but thru my BIL it sounds like St. Petersburg and Moscow were still calm and low-risk, if somber.  She did say the other day that she'd stopped talking English in public, just in case there was some whacko around. 

Still pretty relieved she's out of there though.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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2 hours ago, massraider said:

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1496986321143107586?t=TMo4miihP2c3BKXms26_tQ&s=19

13 Ukrainian soldiers defending snake Island in the Black Sea. 

Reportedly audio from Snake Island in Black Sea:

-This is a Russian military ship. I suggest you lay down your weapons and surrender to avoid bloodshed and unnecessary victims. Otherwise we will open fire on you. 

-Russian military ship, go #### yourself. 

They were all killed

https://twitter.com/Navy_Hipple/status/1497004425080102918?t=hRluEH1NbTLDvfjpfKU0tQ&s=19

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50 minutes ago, massraider said:

Russian assets nosedived as military attacks across Ukraine prompted emergency central bank action and additional sanctions from the U.S., wiping out almost $200 billion in stock-market value and roughly a third of the sovereign debt’s value.

The ruble sank to a record low, the cost of insuring Russian debt against default soared to the highest since 2009, and stocks ended the main trading session down 33% -- their biggest-ever retreat. The Bank of Russia said it will intervene in the foreign exchange market for the first time in years and take measures to tame volatility.

And it's going to get worse for them.....

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3 hours ago, massraider said:

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1496986321143107586?t=TMo4miihP2c3BKXms26_tQ&s=19

13 Ukrainian soldiers defending snake Island in the Black Sea. 

Reportedly audio from Snake Island in Black Sea:

-This is a Russian military ship. I suggest you lay down your weapons and surrender to avoid bloodshed and unnecessary victims. Otherwise we will open fire on you. 

-Russian military ship, go #### yourself. 

They were all killed

yeah well #### Putin & remember Masada eh

war sucks

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2 hours ago, massraider said:

Russian assets nosedived as military attacks across Ukraine prompted emergency central bank action and additional sanctions from the U.S., wiping out almost $200 billion in stock-market value and roughly a third of the sovereign debt’s value.

The ruble sank to a record low, the cost of insuring Russian debt against default soared to the highest since 2009, and stocks ended the main trading session down 33% -- their biggest-ever retreat. The Bank of Russia said it will intervene in the foreign exchange market for the first time in years and take measures to tame volatility.

Great. Except you know the oligarchs shorted the whole thing. Plus the time it takes for sanctions to implement, they'll be moved. As usual normal people will suffer while the rich in Russia figured out a way to get richer. 

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34 minutes ago, massraider said:

Video filmed by someone on the Ground of what appears to be a Russian Aircraft getting shot down by Air Defense Systems over Kyiv about 30 minutes ago. https://t.co/lQBRGGbI5X

🥳

Forbes reporter Tweeted it was a bomber (TU-22 or IL-76)

”Ukrainian air-defenses and fighters are wreaking havoc. Russia has lost as many as seven helicopters, an Su-24, an Su-25 and reportedly two Su-30s. And now something BIG just got hit over Kyiv. This happened after Russia's bomber net went active.”

No one is suggesting the Russians don’t have air superiority but it’s encouraging. Russian military training is ####, most of the troops are 1-year conscripts, they don’t have strong NCOs.

This could start to go badly for them though obviously Day 1 had they had overwhelming superiority.

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2 hours ago, massraider said:

The #Anonymous collective has taken down the website of the #Russian propaganda station RT News.


I was wondering when this would happen. I don't support Anonymous, but you had to wonder at what point the anarchists would get involved. 

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What a tragedy this is. States not being able to determine their own democratic destiny because of the meddling hands of an auto/klepto/plutocratic country larger and stronger than it is never a sight a Westerner should want to see, nor should they have to apologize for their sympathies to the fledgling democratic state. 

Bad couple of days for democracy, but you all know this. I'm just typing...

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9 hours ago, The Z Machine said:

Let's hope. 

Imagine an economic situation where all you have is the ruble and a stockpile of gold.  Even if they can find a foreign entity willing to deal in gold for goods that is going to be miserable.

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7 hours ago, Chris B. said:

What happens when an individual (Putin) is personally sanctioned? Is that like calling for their arrest and charging them with war crimes?

Depends on the sanction.  Economically, countries are basically saying "your money is no good here...pound sand".

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12 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Imagine an economic situation where all you have is the ruble and a stockpile of gold.  Even if they can find a foreign entity willing to deal in gold for goods that is going to be miserable.

Another issue is that because gold is heavy, dense, and hard to move, that will also cost money to actually physically move it. There’s also the issues of storage and security.

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6 hours ago, Chris B. said:

What happens when an individual (Putin) is personally sanctioned? Is that like calling for their arrest and charging them with war crimes?

There are different sanctions (freezing assets, travel bans, etc.), and there are degrees of sanctions (It's one thing if the US sanctions you , quite another if everyone sanctions you).

To answer your question, it is not charging them with war crimes. In this case, with the people already named, it is cutting them off from the Western world. Any assets they have in US or EU banks are frozen, they cannot travel to Europe, or the US. Russians who enjoy the Western world, and here are a LOT of them, would feel the sting. Russian baby tourism is a thing. There are a lot of Russians who have  dirty money tied up in US and European real estate, and have their kids in posh private schools outside Russia. Sanctions put that all at risk. See my post above about bank sanctions.

Putin doesn't have an account at JP Morgan, he doesn't party every weekend in Monaco or London or Miami. No one knows where his money is, I don't really care if he is sanctioned or not. 

I am in favor of the sanctions, but not because I think they will make Putin withdraw, they won't save Ukraine. 

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16 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Imagine an economic situation where all you have is the ruble and a stockpile of gold.  Even if they can find a foreign entity willing to deal in gold for goods that is going to be miserable.

Saw a guy on TV who said that Putin's moves will turn Russia into Pakistan, a 3rd world country with nukes.

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According to a leaked draft of the new sanctions agreed by EU leaders, all members of the Duma, the Russian security council and any Belarusian officials in the military and ministry of defence who “facilitated” the invasion of Ukraine will be subject to travel bans and asset freezes, the Guardian’s Daniel Boffey reports.

The previous sanctions hit the 351 Duma members who had supported recognition by Russia of the self-proclaimed republics in Luhansk and Donetsk.

There is a proposal to enlarge the listing criteria for sanctioning individuals as well to “better capture other forms of support to the regime, including oligarchs”.

Two additional banks will be subject to sanctions: Alfa bank and Otkritie, and there will be a prohibition on EU financial service providers lending to eight companies, ranging from the owners of seaports to automobile manufacturers.

There is also a proposal to prohibit new deposits of over €100,000 in EU banks by Russian nationals.

Foreign ministers will meet later this afternoon to approve the draft text.

EU second round of sanctions.  Going hard after the Duma, and Alfa bank, two important steps, IMO. 

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3 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Anyone got a explanation of what this swift thing is they can link?

Quote

What is Swift?

Swift (the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) is the main secure messaging system that banks use to make rapid and secure cross-border payments, allowing international trade to flow smoothly. It has become the principal mechanism for financing international trade. In 2020, about 38 million transactions were sent each day over the Swift platform, facilitating trillions of dollars’ worth of deals.

Who owns Swift?

Swift, founded in the 1970s, is a cooperative of thousands of member institutions that use the service. Based in Belgium, it remains neutral in trade disputes, being run principally as a service to its members.

Why would a Swift ban be so serious?

Boris Johnson told MPs it would harm the Russian economy if it were locked out of Swift. Run-of-the-mill transactions would need to be conducted directly between banks, or routed through fledgling rival systems, adding to costs and creating delays.

Why is the US reluctant to implement a ban?

One reason is that the impact on Russian businesses might not be so serious. The head of a large Russian bank, VTB, said recently he could use other channels for payments, such as phones, messaging apps or email. Russian banks could also route payments via countries that have not imposed sanctions, such as China, which has set up its own payments system to rival Swift. A ban on Russia using Swift could accelerate a the use of China’s rival Cips system. There is also a fear that it could damage to the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, and accelerate the use of alternatives such as cryptocurrencies.

Would a Swift ban affect other countries?

The Biden administration is also concerned that a ban could harm its allies as much as it does Russian firms. Russia is a big buyer of foreign manufactured goods, especially from the Netherlands and Germany. Russia is the main EU supplier of crude oil, natural gas and solid fossil fuels, and European countries could find it harder to find replacement suppliers.

Is Swift bound by economic sanctions?

In the past, Swift has resisted calls to impose bans on certain countries, describing itself as neutral. But in 2012, the European Union barred Swift from serving Iranian firms and individuals sanctioned in relation to Tehran’s nuclear programme, setting a precedent for action against Russia. A Swift spokesperson declined to say how the organisation would respond to any US sanctions, Reuters said.

 

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The EU is preparing to freeze the assets of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov as part of a third round of sanctions against Russia, the Financial Times reports.

Foreign ministers are planning to approve the sanctions package this afternoon, along with a number of measures against Russian banks and industry, the paper quotes three people familiar with the matter.

Putin and Lavrov will not be subject to a ban on travelling under the measures, the FT writes, underlining the EU’s willingness to keep symbolic diplomatic possibilities open.

An EU official, speaking under condition of anonymity, told Reuters: “We are moving as quickly as we can,” adding the bloc could also target “many more” oligarchs.

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