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It's the YPC stat consistently dropping. As long as his workload stays huge, it won't matter. And it could be a product of the right side of his line being worse now. But it is a concern.I am not getting everyone stating Foster is going to stop producing as an RB1 in two years. The guy is just 26. I predict he will be producing very strong numbers longer than two years out.
I can just reverse your statement and make the same argument. You think it's a fair trade. Does that mean anyone that thinks it's a terrible trade is an idiot? I think foster is an average athlete, with a good skill set in the perfect system. Due to his workloads I don't think he will continue to produce at such a high level for many more years. I think this trade will be even for the next two years and then will be lopsided in greens favor. I think a trade that is even for two years and then lopsided is a terrible trade.To each his own...I am going to guess Foster goes before Green as much as Green goes before Foster this year in startup drafts. Foster is only in his 4th season and only played a few games his rookie year.Trust me I love AJ Green as much as the next person but to call it terrible just doesn't make any sense. So you prefer having AJ Green does that mean your correct and anyone who thinks this is a fair deal or the people who god forbid like having Foster more are idiots ? Just because you believe something to be so doesn't make it so. Again I can understand you wanting Green but to say it was terrible is pretty far off base.Expecting 3-4 years of stud rb production from foster is foolish. I also don't see how having a top 5 wr (green) doesn't help you win now????Furthermore, your particular team with your stud young te have nothing to do with this trade. This trade is even for the next two years. After that it is a massive win for the green owner."terrible" now that was funny. If you like winning now that is how you take Foster because it is so damn hard to find a stud RB that will produce at a high level for the next 3-4 years.Of course for every single RB vs WR traded you can always say "how can you ever trade a RB that will produce for 3 years for a WR that will produce for 6 but if you want to win championships at some point you have to play for the now.I think this is a very fair trade so I don't know how you can see it as terrible. You can usually see approx value for players when looking at where players go in start up drafts and I would tend to believe Foster will go before Green in most of them. Supply and demand.I had a nice line up of Gronk, Hernandez, AJ Green, Dez, Harvin in 1 of my start ups from last year and because I skipped town at the RB position for the "All value young forever lasting stud WR and TE's" I finished in 2nd place not 1st because I was left with the Bradshaw's and god awful RB 2's of the world. So while it is awesome to have these young stud WR's and TE's it really sucked having no playable RB's all year.Oh and I also got this nice young stud TE named Finley...Fair trade both ways depends on what you want and what your trying for.I will tell you what was terrible though it was me trading the 1.02 pick in 2010 when I was going to draft AJ Gren then decided to "go for it now" and traded it for Roddy White!
For me it is the combination of workload and position. Rbs just don't survive the beating of touching the ball 350-370 times year in and year out. Stat people will tell you his ypc average has been on the decline but I just don't see him holding up. The vast majority of rbs don't.I am not getting everyone stating Foster is going to stop producing as an RB1 in two years. The guy is just 26. I predict he will be producing very strong numbers longer than two years out.
Foster will be 27 in September (around the start of the 2013 season). Just a few RBs with their age when they had their last “good” year (not necessarily RB1 years)For me it is the combination of workload and position. Rbs just don't survive the beating of touching the ball 350-370 times year in and year out. Stat people will tell you his ypc average has been on the decline but I just don't see him holding up. The vast majority of rbs don't.I am not getting everyone stating Foster is going to stop producing as an RB1 in two years. The guy is just 26. I predict he will be producing very strong numbers longer than two years out.
ickerson 29Emmitt Smith 30 or 31, depending on what you call “good”LaDanian Tomlinson 31 (the first year with the Jets, but significant decline starting 29)Edgerrin James (29 but in substantial decline at 27)Barry Sanders (still going strong at 30)Thurman Thomas (30, but significant decline starting 27)Ricky Waters 31Tony Dorsett 31Roger Craig 29Marshall Faulk 30 (still elite at 29 though)Marcus Allen (not exactly elite most years, but had a decent fantasy year at 36)Earl Campbell 28Fred Taylor 31Shaun Alexander 28 (so consistent until 28, his best year)Clinton Portis 27Michael Turner 29Eddie George 29William Andrews 28Garrison Hearst 31Projecting 1-2 more elite years for Foster seems about right to me. I would like to think he’ll have a decent year at 29 as well (and one at 28 if not elite). Anything beyond that seems a bit iffy. As for the trade, no way I personally trade AJ for Foster, but I think it’s a fair deal. Also, in a 14 team league (assuming a min 2RB format), starting RBs are very scarce and are pricier as a result.Any thoughts on this trade?
While I like Garcon, this is an absolute steal for Jimmy Graham.
Graham by a long, long, long way.
I think by this time next year this trade will look incredibly close. Garcon is going to be good IMO.
I love Garcon, but Graham (especially in a 1.25 TE PPR) should never get traded unless:a. You are getting back either Gronk or Hernandez.b. If not A., you are getting back a overwhelmingly large "can't decline" package. This isn't that package.
Top tier elite player good? Because that is the level that Graham is at.
This. I own Graham in a 1.5 PPR for TEs, and would have to be absolutely floored to move him. He scores at the same level as the elite WRs (Calvin) and RBs (Rice, Foster, etc) in this format.
Foster's age is less of a concern than carries because didn't get much of a workload his first year. At the moment Foster is at 1,010 carries, not counting recepts. In comparison, Eric Dickerson posted 3 RB1 seasons after he hit a similar amount in carriers. I use Dickerson as an example only because their styles seem similar (don't shy away from contact but will also run ob at times). I agree that, barring injury, Foster should have 2 more top 10 RB seasons. But it wouldn't surprise me to see him be a very relevant fantasy player for the next 4 years. By relevant I mean posting border line RB1 numbers.Foster will be 27 in September (around the start of the 2013 season). Just a few RBs with their age when they had their last “good” year (not necessarily RB1 years)For me it is the combination of workload and position. Rbs just don't survive the beating of touching the ball 350-370 times year in and year out. Stat people will tell you his ypc average has been on the decline but I just don't see him holding up. The vast majority of rbs don't.I am not getting everyone stating Foster is going to stop producing as an RB1 in two years. The guy is just 26. I predict he will be producing very strong numbers longer than two years out.
Agreed. I like Garcon and think he's undervalues right now, but I'd easily make this trade for Graham. Good trade Clam!
This morning, I was told it would take Kaep PLUS a lot to get Russell Wilson.I calmly declined.
good to see this. before the 49ers/packers game i wasn't getting much interest for kaepernick. offered kaepernick to another owner for his 1st round pick (1.6) and it was rejected saturday morning. So i have been wondering what other people thought Kaep's value was and what people were getting for him. After his last game i feel like that would have been a pretty good deal for someone that needs another QB.
I would think Kaepernick would be worth a lot more than Wilson.
Wilson has gone about half-a-round to a full-round ahead of CK in 3-4 mock drafts, and at least one startup that I've seen in the past 2-3 weeks. These were all prior to last weekend, though Wilson was obviously impressive there as well.I was the one that took CK in the startup, but I had Wilson a spot ahead of him on my big board.
Maybe you missed the part where it said to "Post completed trades only". This isn't the AC clam.
Why?I love Kaep as much as anyone, but one game in the playoffs shouldn't swing it to "a lot more" in favor of Kaep.From Weeks 10-17 (after Kaep took over as starter), Wilson was QB3 in PPG (25.6) and Kaep was QB11 (21.2). I have them fairly even and would actually prefer Kaep, but the statement that Kaep should be worth a lot more is silly.
I guess I've always thought he could produce big with his feet as well as his arm. I'm not sold on Wilson long term. I see him more as a fluke than Kaepernick. I'm not saying Wilson is a fluke, but I think the possibility of it outweighs that of Kaepernick. Maybe it's his height that bothers me. I know Brees is also shorter than the prototypical QB too, but this does bother me about Wilson and I don't know why. Maybe saying "a lot more" was a poor choice of words.
At the time I made the post, I had already accepted the trade. I was waiting for the commish to put it through, not realizing I had to pay for the following season before he would. Nice try Al Bundy.
OH LIKELY STORY.
Maybe you missed the part where it said "off season dynasty trade thread". This isn't the sour grapes thread doowain. He posted the trade after he accepted it. Ask the commish if you don't believe him.
I like the Garcon side of the trade because of the depth at tight end around the league.
I like it, weaker draft class this year, and Foles showed some flashes this year. There are a lot of weapons around him in Philly too.
I like this trade for both sides.
I like Lance Moore more than Antonio Brown, and I like Lamar Miller more than 2.6, so team A.
It was a joke fella. Chillax.
My opinion is that if you don't have one of the big 3 (Gronk, Graham, AHern in that order) or Witten (a tier down), it's basically a #### show. So try to acquire a top 3 TE. I like Garcon but Graham is worth much more than him.
Seems to me in fantasy it has been that way as long as I can remember - usually a top tier of roughly 2-3 elite players and then a fall off a cliff to the next tier of 8-10 players that all end up scoring about the same.
In my ppr league Graham finished 3rd barely ahead of Heath Miller and only about 30 to 35 points ahead of Myers, Gresham, Daniels, Pitta, Olsen. So I will take the Garcon side, and hope that Keller lands in a good spot, or I hit a homerun with 1.4
For those that don't remember, Jimmy played the last month and a half on a wrist that needed surgery and clearly affected his play.
Wonder what your scoring system is, because in my PPR Graham still finished 1st overall (while missing a game) and 2nd in PPG. He was 1+ PPG ahead of Witten/Gonzo, and 2+ PPG over Miller (who had a career year and now has a serious injury, and just went undrafted in a startup). He was 50+ total points and 4+ PPG better than the other mess of players you listed (Myers, Gresham, etc). All this while playing hurt for a good portion of the year, and still managing to outscore everyone's WR darling Cobb.That trade favors Graham by a significant margin.
What's with all this Moreno love?The guy will be 26 next year, has been in the NFL for 4 yrs and never really done anything, and only got his shot when no one else was left this year. The only reason he put up numbers was due to his big workload during the last 6 games of the year, logging in 130 carries (22 carries/game) with a pretty terrible 3.8 ypc and 3 TDs in that time. Oh, and despite averaging 22 carries/game, he only topped 100 yards twice. All this while facing the 27th ranked KC defense TWICE, 18th ranked Oakland defense, 19th ranked Cleveland defense, and 20th ranked Baltimore defense.I'm gonna go out on a pretty thick limb and predict that Moreno will not be the main RB for Denver in 2013. I have no idea how this guy is getting high 1st round picks in trades.
I tend to agree. I picked Moreno up on waivers when he was dropped mid-season, specualting that perhaps he could have a Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson revitalization in a new location, but was looking to move him once the season ended knowing his value may never get higher. Gave: Moreno, Knowshon DEN RBRecieved: Turbin, Robert SEA RB; Year 2013 2.01 Draft Pick; Year 2013 2.07 Draft PickNot nearly as good as some of the trades in here, but still good value. I'm not a Lynch owner in that league but like Turbin's long term outlook.
You go great value here. Turbin is a very good player, in my opinion. He really surprised me with his hands and ability to turn up field after the catch. I would much rather Turbin than Moreno in a vacuum. Granted, Moreno is not stuck behind Lynch, but I don't think it is a given he is starting next season. Add 2.01 and 2.07 and it is a no-brainer for me.
I'm a Lynch owner in a league that is trying to get Turbin, and am seriously considering 1.11 for him. (or 2.11 and J Wright, but I don't think that would get it done). So I'd say that you got a good return for Moreno.
I was very surprised to get 1.04 for him, but people see the late season numbers and are projecting them into next season. Don't see it myself so was happy to have my deal accepted
I am suspicious of Moreno's upside but my question is what is with all the hand wringing over a RB turning 26?
It's not just that he's going to be 26 it's that he hasn't been very good even when healthy. Last year he was tied for the worst YPC on the team - with Lance Ball. If he could stay healthy I could see him being a low RB1 but I think that's unlikely and not worth high 1st round picks.
Then why mention that he is 26 if it is a non issue? Again, I am asking to figure out what I am missing.
