2015 Rookie RB Class, Who's the BEST? (1 Viewer)

[Sabertooth]

And last year everyone was sure Seastrunk and Lee were the top players at their positions.

 

[Xue]

This reason is good enough for you? If this is your best reason, then you might as well just scout the boxscores. How much of that can be attributed to the O-line?

Here are the career YPC of the most recent and current Alabama RBs:

Mark Ingram 5.7Trent Richardson 5.8Eddie Lacy 6.8Kenyan Drake 7.3Derrick Henry 10.6I think it's safe to say, you have to give that Offensive line some credit for their college success, and with this trend that O-line might be getting even better, especially when you have OJ Howard being able to outrun the RBs and block in the second level.

Alabama lost 60% of their OLine prior to the draft last year (Warmack, Jones, Fluker). Two of which were Top 10 picks. Are you telling me that their offensive line got BETTER from 2012 to 2013?

With the loss of those 3 guys, Yeldon's YPC dropped all the way to 6.0 from 6.3! And as someone mentioned earlier, Yeldon played on a bum wheel much of the 2nd half of the season.

This situation with Yeldon/Henry is similar to Ingram/Richardson IMO. Even while both were still in school, Richardson was touted as the better RB. That didn't stop both from being 1st round picks. That may very well happen here too.

ETA: Under the guise of touting Henry, it seems as if you just like to bust on Yeldon. You don't like him and that's fine. I just don't know what your angle is here. Pumping up Henry or tearing down Yeldon? Because you aren't doing a very good job of selling either.

I mean, I can appreciate someone calling their shots, but you don't have to beat that shot over our heads. Seems like you just want something to point to in a year or two, in the event that you are right.

And they continue to recruit top shelf talent every year. They got the #1 OT 2014 HS prospect in Cameron Robinson (5*).

You must have missed the part where I also mentioned TE OJ Howard. Do you even watch Alabama? Howard gets upfield so quickly to block at the second level. That's a huge advantage when your RBs will most often not outrun your TE.

I don't need to sell Henry. It is clear he is more talented than Yeldon. And I don't need to tear down Yeldon either. Anyone who doesn't want to lie to themself can see what he is.

So you know more than every outlet that has Yeldon pegged as a 1st round pick and those that rated him as the #2 running back recruit in the nation coming out of high school. You are telling me I should ignore all of them and listen to you, yet you don't offer up any reasons as to why Yeldon isn't good other than "he's not even the best RB on his team." It's a weak argument.

Although I doubt it, I sure hope this act is hubris instead of an inflated ego.

I've offered enough opinions over the last year or so. Your argument is even weaker, quoting major media outlets. Those outlets who are no better than any high-quality poster on FBGs.

I'm telling you to NOT ignore negative evaluations on Yeldon instead of only focusing on the positive ones.

Yeldon was rated higher than Gurley by almost every recruiting site. Yea, that means a lot. Everyone knows Yeldon isn't even on Gurley's level.

Melvin Gordon wasn't even a consensus 4* recruit. Can you believe he was only a 3* at some sites? And now he's the only RB to challenge Gurley as the #1 RB for 2015.

Oh yeah recruiting sites are so good!

 

[doowain]

So it's ego. Thanks for clearing that up.

 

[jurb26]

I really don't see what their high school ranks have to do with this right now. The high school rankings rarely translate to who becomes the best NFL prospects. I think people ranking Yeldon highly are holding onto that high school rank and his early success at Bama. He's not remotely close to the prospect Gurely is. Any site still ranking him as the top RB immediately loses credibility IMO.

Yeldon is great in space, has very good lateral agility, speed and explosiveness. He runs high and lacks leverage for a RB with his size. He also doesn't have very good vision IMO. He looks to bounce far too often and shows hesitation hitting small cracks, picking through traffic at the LOS and driving for yards. He can be arm tackled because he doesn't run with good leg drive. Bama has been so good they have positioned him in space or with clear running lanes a lot and hidden many if his warts.

 

[tdmills]

I really don't see what their high school ranks have to do with this right now. The high school rankings rarely translate to who becomes the best NFL prospects. I think people ranking Yeldon highly are holding onto that high school rank and his early success at Bama. He's not remotely close to the prospect Gurely is. Any site still ranking him as the top RB immediately loses credibility IMO.

Yeldon is great in space, has very good lateral agility, speed and explosiveness. He runs high and lacks leverage for a RB with his size. He also doesn't have very good vision IMO. He looks to bounce far too often and shows hesitation hitting small cracks, picking through traffic at the LOS and driving for yards. He can be arm tackled because he doesn't run with good leg drive. Bama has been so good they have positioned him in space or with clear running lanes a lot and hidden many if his warts.

I agree on the HS rankings, i'm more interested in college production.

I agree Yeldon is too high, he's 6'2 which doesn't help, but he doesn't get low enough. Reminds me of Ryan Mathews a bit in regards to leverage sometimes.

But I disagree on your notion of him having not good vision and bouncing outside.

Yeldon doesn't have much on youtube(stuff I can use here) in 2013. But watching this(game vs Texas A&M): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SU5EsQQTwc

You can see over 10 carries and I only count 1 run where he bounced when he shouldn't...yet he still got the 1st down. Many times he showed patience and read his blockers great.

 

[Slapdash]

Mike Davis showed that he can be the total package at times. Will be interesting to see what kind of growth he has because South Carolina will lean on him.

 

[loose circuits]

Didn't people say Adrian ran too high when he was coming out? That and he was injury prone??

 

[jurb26]

Didn't people say Adrian ran too high when he was coming out? That and he was injury prone??

Injury prone, yes. Ran high, no.

 

[EBF]

Watching Peterson's college highlights after all these years, what really stands out his his quick feet and slipperiness. He is always moving and very very hard to get a good clean hit on for that reason. Tomlinson is much the same way. When you watch highlights of him in his prime, he is just untouchable.

I think Yeldon has pretty good feet and hips for the first 5-10 yards, which is most important. He's not some plodding stiff who can't move. He can bounce around behind the line of scrimmage and weave through his blocks pretty well. He's not a complete stiff in the open field. I thought this was a nice run:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9740041

On paper, he fits the mold of a first round back. I think he has the height/weight/speed and the production. He's a fast twitch athlete.

On the other hand, he is a really odd runner with a weird lower body construction. His knees bend inward when he's running, which gives him a really strange appearance. It might have functional consequences too. I think being bow-legged like Trent Richardson, Ameer Abdullah, or Odell Beckham helps athletes sink their hips and make instant lateral cuts. It's almost like their natural anatomy provides a "shortcut" because of how easily they can widen their base and plant their feet. Knock-kneed runners like Michael Ford and TJ Yeldon seem to struggle comparatively.

I think Yeldon is at his worst when he's in the open field and he has to break someone down 1v1. You can see examples here at 0:10 and 2:22.

http://youtu.be/Z6TaWf97gQM?t=10s

http://youtu.be/Z6TaWf97gQM?t=2m22s

On the first play, he's not able to make a hard enough cut to evade the defender. On the second play, he succeeds at evading the first tackler, but seems to lose his balance in the process. He's still able to bounce off another bad tackle, but it wasn't exactly the prettiest sequence.

I think some of the criticisms raised against him are overly harsh. If he was so bad, he wouldn't be getting all that work for Alabama. They have plenty of other guys who can carry the mail. However, there's definitely something very weird and funky about his running style that sets off some alarm bells.

I'd probably treat him as a merely good prospect rather than a can't-miss guy. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him becoming a decent pro though.

 

[Mistabishi]

I really don't see what their high school ranks have to do with this right now. The high school rankings rarely translate to who becomes the best NFL prospects. I think people ranking Yeldon highly are holding onto that high school rank and his early success at Bama. He's not remotely close to the prospect Gurely is. Any site still ranking him as the top RB immediately loses credibility IMO.

Yeldon is great in space, has very good lateral agility, speed and explosiveness. He runs high and lacks leverage for a RB with his size. He also doesn't have very good vision IMO. He looks to bounce far too often and shows hesitation hitting small cracks, picking through traffic at the LOS and driving for yards. He can be arm tackled because he doesn't run with good leg drive. Bama has been so good they have positioned him in space or with clear running lanes a lot and hidden many if his warts.

The only sensible post about Yeldon in this thread. He goes down on the first contact it seems like every time. He's like a fast receiver in a spread offense. He's a system RB. Nothing special.

 

[cstu]

I really don't see what their high school ranks have to do with this right now. The high school rankings rarely translate to who becomes the best NFL prospects. I think people ranking Yeldon highly are holding onto that high school rank and his early success at Bama. He's not remotely close to the prospect Gurely is. Any site still ranking him as the top RB immediately loses credibility IMO.

Yeldon is great in space, has very good lateral agility, speed and explosiveness. He runs high and lacks leverage for a RB with his size. He also doesn't have very good vision IMO. He looks to bounce far too often and shows hesitation hitting small cracks, picking through traffic at the LOS and driving for yards. He can be arm tackled because he doesn't run with good leg drive. Bama has been so good they have positioned him in space or with clear running lanes a lot and hidden many if his warts.

The only sensible post about Yeldon in this thread. He goes down on the first contact it seems like every time. He's like a fast receiver in a spread offense. He's a system RB. Nothing special.

He looks to me like a better version of McFadden, who had the ability to be a fantasy stud if he could stay healthy.

 

[Xue]

I really don't see what their high school ranks have to do with this right now. The high school rankings rarely translate to who becomes the best NFL prospects. I think people ranking Yeldon highly are holding onto that high school rank and his early success at Bama. He's not remotely close to the prospect Gurely is. Any site still ranking him as the top RB immediately loses credibility IMO.

Yeldon is great in space, has very good lateral agility, speed and explosiveness. He runs high and lacks leverage for a RB with his size. He also doesn't have very good vision IMO. He looks to bounce far too often and shows hesitation hitting small cracks, picking through traffic at the LOS and driving for yards. He can be arm tackled because he doesn't run with good leg drive. Bama has been so good they have positioned him in space or with clear running lanes a lot and hidden many if his warts.

The only sensible post about Yeldon in this thread. He goes down on the first contact it seems like every time. He's like a fast receiver in a spread offense. He's a system RB. Nothing special.

He looks to me like a better version of McFadden, who had the ability to be a fantasy stud if he could stay healthy.

I don't see that kind of speed in Yeldon.

 

[EBF]

No parallels with McFadden apart from the conference. Different body type. Totally different running style.

McFadden was all speed and nothing else.

Yeldon is no Barry Sanders when it comes to elusiveness, but at least he has some capability to make a cut (unlike Runt DMC).

 

[fantasycurse42]

Gurley entering this year has to be number 1 if he stays healthy - the talent is clearly there.

I expect a huge year out of Yeldon & think he can be the number 2 back in the draft by the end of the season.

 

[jurb26]

I really don't see what their high school ranks have to do with this right now. The high school rankings rarely translate to who becomes the best NFL prospects. I think people ranking Yeldon highly are holding onto that high school rank and his early success at Bama. He's not remotely close to the prospect Gurely is. Any site still ranking him as the top RB immediately loses credibility IMO.

Yeldon is great in space, has very good lateral agility, speed and explosiveness. He runs high and lacks leverage for a RB with his size. He also doesn't have very good vision IMO. He looks to bounce far too often and shows hesitation hitting small cracks, picking through traffic at the LOS and driving for yards. He can be arm tackled because he doesn't run with good leg drive. Bama has been so good they have positioned him in space or with clear running lanes a lot and hidden many if his warts.

The only sensible post about Yeldon in this thread. He goes down on the first contact it seems like every time. He's like a fast receiver in a spread offense. He's a system RB. Nothing special.

He looks to me like a better version of McFadden, who had the ability to be a fantasy stud if he could stay healthy.

I don't see that kind of speed in Yeldon.

Not the same speed or overall athlete that DMAC was. DMAC also runs with better pad level and vision. I see him more like D. Murray.

 

[Xue]

Barry Sanders, Jr. looking good: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGvYdVIzwno

 

[EBF]

He's been a non-entity through two years.

The depth chart is a little more open with Gaffney and Taylor finally gone.

He may actually get some PT at RB this season.

If his name was Jack Smith and not Barry Sanders, nobody would be talking about him as a draft prospect yet.

 

[Xue]

He's been a non-entity through two years.

The depth chart is a little more open with Gaffney and Taylor finally gone.

He may actually get some PT at RB this season.

If his name was Jack Smith and not Barry Sanders, nobody would be talking about him as a draft prospect yet.

He's been a non-entity because he can't pass protect. He's always been the most talented RB on the roster. People are overhyping him because of the name, but if he had a different name we'd still think he's talented enough to talk about just as we do HS recruits who have yet to play a college snap.

 

[EBF]

He's been a non-entity through two years.

The depth chart is a little more open with Gaffney and Taylor finally gone.

He may actually get some PT at RB this season.

If his name was Jack Smith and not Barry Sanders, nobody would be talking about him as a draft prospect yet.

He's been a non-entity because he can't pass protect. He's always been the most talented RB on the roster. People are overhyping him because of the name, but if he had a different name we'd still think he's talented enough to talk about just as we do HS recruits who have yet to play a college snap.

Eh, I don't know about that. Taylor was a 5th round pick and Gaffney will be drafted on day three this year in all likelihood. It's hardly a given that he ends up being a better prospect. He has exactly 5 carries in two full college seasons. I can't remember a rising junior ever being hyped so much with a thinner resume. So obviously his dad's legacy is a huge part of why people think he's a strong NFL prospect. It's always a red flag for me when the most optimistic supporters of a prospect are people who don't follow his team or watch his games. Same deal with Kevin Hogan. People who don't watch Stanford games like him more than people who actually watch games. If you saw him on a weekly basis, you would know he's more of a liability than a playmaker.

One thing I'll say is that he's still young and it's not unheard of for players to improve. Gerhart's high school highlights were really impressive. A lot of people don't know this, but he holds the California career HS rushing record. Taylor/Gaffney both got on the field and contributed early in their careers. But if you'd asked me if those three guys were certain NFL prospects after 1-2 seasons at Stanford, I would've answered no. Same with Sanders. Nothing he has shown to date indicates that he's worthy of the praise and fanfare he receives from outsiders who saw his name on a recruiting list with a lot of stars next to it, but that doesn't mean he can't ultimately rise up and become something decent.

Totally overhyped based on achievements to date. What you're buying (if the believer) is the idea that he'll become something he hasn't yet shown to be.

 

[EBF]

On that note...

The idea that Sanders didn't play much last year because he wasn't good in pass protection might sound like a reasonable story on the surface, but I'm not sure if it all adds up. Stanford is a running team. They ranked 18th out of 123 FBS teams in rushing attempts, but just 109th out of 123 teams in passing attempts. In other words, they're very much a run-first team. So not only were there a lot of carries to go around, but also it stands to reason that a back's pass-blocking prowess would have been of lesser importance on this team since they run so much anyway. If you're running all the time, it doesn't matter much if your RB can block.

It seems to me that if the coaches felt Sanders brought dynamic rushing talent to the table, they would've found a way to mix him in.

Beyond that, Stanford was involved in several comfortable wins last season. Despite nursing big leads in some of those games, the coaches didn't seem too interested in getting Sanders snaps in the backfield. They won four games by 20+ points last season. Here are the scores and the # of carries for Sanders.

34-13 vs. San Jose State - 1 carry

55-17 vs. Washington State - 3 carries

63-13 vs. Cal - 0 carries

38-14 vs. Arizona State - 0 carries

4 other RBs (excluding FBs) got carries in the 63-13 win over Cal. If Sanders is such a promising runner, why didn't the coaches use that opportunity to get him some valuable experience? It is a fair question. If you judge strictly by volume of carries, he was the 5th string RB last season.

The encouraging news there is that two of the guys ahead of him (Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson) are graduating. One of the others is Remound Wright, who has just been suspended from the second half of spring practices for bad conduct. So he may be out of the picture. That only leaves Kelsey Young ahead of Sanders of the remaining backs on the roster. If none of the true freshmen come in ready to play, Sanders should have a great chance at a decent workload.

That's a long way off being considered a solid dev/NFL prospect. I'm sure there have been exceptions, but most eventual NFL RBs had shown more at the college level after their first two years on campus. All of Stanford's recent NFL backs (Toby Gerhart, Jeremy Stewart, Stepfan Taylor, Tyler Gaffney) had all earned more carries by this point in their career. The school is not so stacked that it can let NFL talent ride on the bench unused for 2-3 years.

So while I wouldn't say it's impossible that Sanders could make something of himself, what's more likely:

That he's a great talent the coaches have been wasting?

OR

That he's just not as good as Internet experts think he is?

I would lean towards the latter based on all the available info right now. I think much of the hype for him comes from people who don't watch Stanford games. They saw his name on a recruiting list. They watched a few high school highlights. Maybe they saw his SportsCenter highlight last season. And all of a sudden they're experts.

I would advise a little more caution. Said it before, but he's probably closer to Jarrett Payton than Ken Griffey Jr./Bobby Bonds.

It is a really long path from...

top recruit ---> college standout ---> NFL draft pick ---> NFL standout

For the time being, he's still stuck on step one.

 

[Xue]

I would imagine Stanford is a program where you have to "earn" playing time. If he was on a team with a wide open offense like (Baylor or Oklahoma State where he should have committed to), he'd certainly already be starting. Look up the yearly rushing leaders for each PAC12 team. You think he's not good enough to start for at least half of the teams? You think he wouldn't start on Oregon? He'll likely never even put up seasons close to LaMichael James or Kenjon Barner, but does that mean he's actually less talented than them?

Put him on a bottom-dweller like Utah, Cal, or Washington State and he'd easily be getting more carries.

Talent is talent regardless of production. Just because a guy can't get on the field, doesn't mean he's not talented and just because a guy is getting playing time doesn't mean he's actually talented. This argument gets old. Coaches don't always know what they have until it's too late.

What does all the recent Stanford RBs you listed have in common?

 

[EBF]

Coaches aren't idiots either. If you're not head-and-shoulders better than your own teammates at the college level, it's really hard to say that you're a great NFL prospect. You can find exceptions every now and then when a team is totally stacked (like the Dorsey Miami teams or the Bama backfields of recent years), but in general a guy with legitimate NFL talent is going to rise up the depth chart pretty quickly and become a big standout for his college team.

Barry Sanders in year two wasn't even ahead of Kelsey Young and Remound Wright on the depth chart. Does this mean it's impossible that he'll reach a higher level than them? No, but I think the probability that he's simply not a great talent is a lot higher than the probability that he's an awesome talent and that somehow the Stanford coaches are too dumb to see it. It's Occam's razor. The simplest answer is usually the right choice. The simple answer is that he has played sparingly because he has not shown himself to be a special player in practices. If he hasn't shown himself to be a special player in practices then he's probably not a special player. I'm sure you can dig up somebody like Chris Johnson who bloomed late in college to become a superstar. That is not the common trajectory.

Taylor, Gerhart, and Gaffney all put up huge, huge numbers at Stanford. Not one of those guys is even an obvious NFL starter. So think about that. Even if Sanders comes out and rushes for 1300 yards next season, he still might be miles off the level that you're hoping for with a dev pick (you'd hope that he's on par with Peterson, Charles, McCoy, Martin, Mathews, Gore, etc). The number of college standouts who become NFL standouts is small. And Sanders hasn't even reached the level of college standout yet. Huge leap of faith to take him in a devy draft. Based on his output after two years, you'd have to be borderline mental to stay the course and still treat him like he's an obvious premium talent.

One thing I can say having watched the program over the years is that almost all of the skill position guys who went on to play in the NFL flashed talent early in their Stanford careers (that goes for Baldwin, R Whalen, Fleener, Ertz, Gerhart, Stepfan, Luck, Montgomery, Owusu, etc). They didn't necessarily look like Sunday players from day one, but the majority of them had earned prominent roles within 1-2 years of stepping foot on campus.

 

[Xue]

I'm sure Taylor , Gerhart , and Gaffney were special players. That's why they got carries. It's that simple right?

 

[Xue]

Bishop Sankey was 3rd string in Chris Polk's final season. He was 2nd string his Sophomore season and only became the starter because Jesse Callier tore his ACL in the first game of that season. Bishop Sankey put up 2 huge seasons afterward and is now considered a better prospect than Chris Polk.

How can a guy who was once 3rd string be among one of the top RBs in his draft class? Why didn't the Washington coaches know what they had sooner?

It's because coaches actually are idiots sometimes. It's that simple right?

 

[tdmills]

He's been a non-entity through two years.

The depth chart is a little more open with Gaffney and Taylor finally gone.

He may actually get some PT at RB this season.

If his name was Jack Smith and not Barry Sanders, nobody would be talking about him as a draft prospect yet.

He's been a non-entity because he can't pass protect. He's always been the most talented RB on the roster. People are overhyping him because of the name, but if he had a different name we'd still think he's talented enough to talk about just as we do HS recruits who have yet to play a college snap.

Eh, I don't know about that. Taylor was a 5th round pick and Gaffney will be drafted on day three this year in all likelihood. It's hardly a given that he ends up being a better prospect. He has exactly 5 carries in two full college seasons. I can't remember a rising junior ever being hyped so much with a thinner resume. So obviously his dad's legacy is a huge part of why people think he's a strong NFL prospect. It's always a red flag for me when the most optimistic supporters of a prospect are people who don't follow his team or watch his games. Same deal with Kevin Hogan. People who don't watch Stanford games like him more than people who actually watch games. If you saw him on a weekly basis, you would know he's more of a liability than a playmaker.

One thing I'll say is that he's still young and it's not unheard of for players to improve. Gerhart's high school highlights were really impressive. A lot of people don't know this, but he holds the California career HS rushing record. Taylor/Gaffney both got on the field and contributed early in their careers. But if you'd asked me if those three guys were certain NFL prospects after 1-2 seasons at Stanford, I would've answered no. Same with Sanders. Nothing he has shown to date indicates that he's worthy of the praise and fanfare he receives from outsiders who saw his name on a recruiting list with a lot of stars next to it, but that doesn't mean he can't ultimately rise up and become something decent.

Totally overhyped based on achievements to date. What you're buying (if the believer) is the idea that he'll become something he hasn't yet shown to be.

Sanders with only 5 carries is over hyped, but Christine Michael is a gem waiting in the weeds with his 18 carries...

 

[jurb26]

Where is all this Sanders Jr. hype? I've heard none of it.

 

[Xue]

EBF wants to use the "coaches know what they're doing" angle for a player he doesn't like but won't use it for a player he does like.

If you play in Devy leagues, you're always looking for talent that hasn't shown itself to the masses yet. Isn't that how you remain ahead of everyone else?

I don't think you've even stated whether you actually like Sanders, Jr. as a player. Instead just using the weak argument of "if he's talented, he should already be playing".

You think a RB like Lache Seastrunk wouldn't be in the same position as Sanders, Jr. if he was at Stanford. Oh wait, he was already in a similar position at Oregon behind LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, and De'Anthony Thomas. People were so hyped about Seastrunk even while he hadn't even played a meaningful down for Oregon. Why couldn't Seastrunk "beat out" those 3 RBs in which he was superior in talent to?

 

[jurb26]

Right now my 15' RB rankings are, by tier and only the top 10.

Todd Gurley

Melvin Gordon

Mike Davis

Duke Johnson

Jay Ajayi

Keith Marshall (doubt he declares)

Karols Williams

TJ Yeldon

Kenyon Drake

Byron Marshall

 

[DexterDew]

I think Sanders is tabula rasa like Jeremy Langford was a year ago (but with a better known name).

The dichotomy at play (for me, at least) is do I prefer a RB to reach the NFL with "low tread" on his tires or do I want college production for 2-3 years.

 

[EBF]

Bishop Sankey was 3rd string in Chris Polk's final season. He was 2nd string his Sophomore season and only became the starter because Jesse Callier tore his ACL in the first game of that season. Bishop Sankey put up 2 huge seasons afterward and is now considered a better prospect than Chris Polk.

How can a guy who was once 3rd string be among one of the top RBs in his draft class? Why didn't the Washington coaches know what they had sooner?

It's because coaches actually are idiots sometimes. It's that simple right?

Sankey rushed for 1400+ yards as a sophomore.

Lots of guys have quiet freshman seasons, but by year two you usually see some signs of potential.

Seastrunk is a tricky one because he redshirted his first season and then had to sit out another season because he transferred. We'll never know what his career would've looked like if he'd stayed at Oregon. He did rush for 1000+ yards at 7.7 YPC in his first season of eligibility at Baylor.

If you dig deep enough, you can probably find somebody, but off the top of my head I can't think of a college RB who logged 5 or less carries in his first two seasons and went on to become a worthwhile prospect. Usually an NFL talent will push his way into a prominent role within 1-2 years.

 

[jurb26]

Stanford has been 11-2 the last 2 seasons with one of the best running games in the country each season. They have back to back top 10 rushers in the NCAA along with an extremely high winning percentage. You don't fix what isn't broken. I'm not sure why it's so alarming that Sanders Jr. didn't break the lineup in light of that. Maybe he's nobody. Maybe he's somebody. I'm holding judgement until I see him actually play meaningful snaps.

 

[EBF]

The fact that he's going into his third season and hasn't played meaningful snaps is exactly what's alarming.

Guys like Gaffney, Taylor, and Gerhart did not necessarily look like NFL backs as freshmen-sophomores, but they all had earned significant PT by then.

 

[Xue]

Bishop Sankey was 3rd string in Chris Polk's final season. He was 2nd string his Sophomore season and only became the starter because Jesse Callier tore his ACL in the first game of that season. Bishop Sankey put up 2 huge seasons afterward and is now considered a better prospect than Chris Polk.

How can a guy who was once 3rd string be among one of the top RBs in his draft class? Why didn't the Washington coaches know what they had sooner?

It's because coaches actually are idiots sometimes. It's that simple right?

Sankey rushed for 1400+ yards as a sophomore.

Lots of guys have quiet freshman seasons, but by year two you usually see some signs of potential.

Seastrunk is a tricky one because he redshirted his first season and then had to sit out another season because he transferred. We'll never know what his career would've looked like if he'd stayed at Oregon. He did rush for 1000+ yards at 7.7 YPC in his first season of eligibility at Baylor.

If you dig deep enough, you can probably find somebody, but off the top of my head I can't think of a college RB who logged 5 or less carries in his first two seasons and went on to become a worthwhile prospect. Usually an NFL talent will push his way into a prominent role within 1-2 years.

Sankey only became the starter because Callier tore his ACL.

How can Seastrunk be tricky? You're still sticking to the argument is that if a guy is talented he should be seeing the field. Seastrunk blew up the combine and had always been clearly talented even before he played a regular season game. I guess the Oregon coaches were smart, or stupid, whichever way side you want to take. But it's most likely neither. The Oregon run game was fine without Seastrunk. And that's the same reason Stanford hasn't played Sanders more as jurb26 alluded to.

All that matters is whether or not you think Sanders is talented (which you haven't stated yet in this thread) based on everything you've seen and known, not what the coaches think. They're not drafting your team for you.

 

[jurb26]

All that matters is whether or not you think Sanders is talented (which you haven't stated yet in this thread) based on everything you've seen and known, not what the coaches think. They're not drafting your team for you.

Right, this is all it comes down to. I'm not sure why he won't answer this. Personally, I haven't seen nearly enough of Sanders Jr. to have a reliable opinion. I don't think anyone has, which makes me skeptical to EBF's presumably iron clad opinion already. Seems like this is already set up for a situation where confirmation bias will enter into his evaluation. Even if Sanders starts this year and lights it up it will be just the system, ect. The system is good. I think we all know that. It's more important to decipher if the player is. I also like what I saw from your short clip. It's not nearly enough for me to start getting overly optimistic about but I think it was encouraging. He showed excellent burst, balance and vision on those few runs. I need to see actual games, though.

 

[EBF]

How can Seastrunk be tricky? You're still sticking to the argument is that if a guy is talented he should be seeing the field. Seastrunk blew up the combine and had always been clearly talented even before he played a regular season game. I guess the Oregon coaches were smart, or stupid, whichever way side you want to take. But it's most likely neither. The Oregon run game was fine without Seastrunk. And that's the same reason Stanford hasn't played Sanders more as jurb26 alluded to.

Seastrunk is tricky because his first season was a redshirt and his second season was a transfer. So he doesn't exactly fit the mold of "guys who did nothing in their first two seasons" because he was required to sit out his second season. When he finally became eligible for Baylor, he made a big impact.

To answer your question, I'm pretty lukewarm on Sanders. I've not seen any indication up to now that he's destined for NFL success. His high school highlights were promising. They showed good elusiveness and cutting ability. He doesn't look as outright fast/explosive as his dad was. I made the Jarrett Payton comparison because he was another guy who had a lot of hype based on his dad, but ended up being a fairly middling player. He was second fiddle at Miami to guys like McGahee and Portis and then had a cup of coffee in the NFL before fading into obscurity.

Sanders is poised to finally get his chance this year. However, he faces a long road to NFL relevance. Even if you accept that he's going to be a good college player, that's still a long way off the standard of being a good NFL player. It's tough to be optimistic about any NCAA RB's chances of having a real NFL career. When that guy hasn't shown himself to be any kind of factor after two college seasons, it's even tougher.

Not to say he has no chance and is destined to flop. Anything can happen. However, there are any number of promising RBs kicking around college football. If not for the fact that this one's name is Barry Sanders, he wouldn't come up nearly as often in dev threads across the Internet. Certainly the hype isn't based on anything he's done on the field for Stanford, as he's been buried on the RB depth chart and only really used on punt returns.

 

[EBF]

I respect you sticking with Dyer all this time EBF... He may only have a few years in the NFL if he sticks somewhere (assuming he gets there.)

I'll try to make this my last Dyer post for a while, but if he's out there in your devy league then I highly recommend buying him if the price is at all reasonable. We never really saw what he could do last season, but he looked phenomenal in the spring game. Like a cross between MJD and Michael Turner. The guy has a massive, massive frame and he's unusually fast for a player that size. I thought he showed more hip flexibility and footwork in the spring game clips than I've seen from him since his freshman season at Auburn. Basically looks back to 100% and a 100% Michael Dyer is a scary thing.

Here are some hyperbole-laden quotes from Louisville fans and writers after the game:

http://www.cardchronicle.com/2014/4/12/5607618/2015-spring-game-recap

Michael Dyer and L.J. Scott ran wild all night with a mix of power runs, off tackle sweeps, draws, screens, swing passes, and zone reads. Dyer flat out looked better than everyone else, which is what I think we all expected to see last season. Injuries hampered his season and he was never able to reach the potential expected when he transferred in. Dyer looked much quicker with his cuts and much more comfortable in the offense than he did last year

Dyer may be the fastest player on the team right now, seriously. I don’t think he was in shape well enough last year but he’s back now.

And expounding on Dyer…he looked like a completely different player than at any point last season. His quickness & ability to read blocks was on full display Friday night. His touchdown with the second unit beginning after halftime was a thing of beauty.

From the Louisville scout.com message boards:

Dyer looked surreal last night with his cuts. We never saw that once last year.

This sounds crazy, but Dyer does 1000 all-purpose yds in his sleep this year. If he stays healthy and in this form, I would not be surprised if he gets 2000 yds all-purpose, gets Heisman consideration and 1st round draft pick. Not kidding. That is how good he looked.I know hyperbole is easy in pre-season against the 2nd Team Defense but I think it is possible. Plus, he shreaded the 1st Team Defense when he switched to White in the 2nd half too. I am sure the coaching staff was like, "Wow, let's see if he can replicate that performance against a better Defense"....and he did.

It may seem like hyperbole to set these expectations for Dyer, but is it really? He's already shown what he can do against the best college competition at Auburn. Injuries combined with lack of imagination on offense made last year basically a wash for him. He could very well go back to being one of the nations top RBs next year.

Dyer - another WOW !! - I know, it is getting old, but I am telling you it looks as if Dyer is recovered and close to his Auburn form. Not only that, but he is running now in the Offense PERFECT for him. I think Dyer must have rushed for 150+ yds and 50+ yds in receptions. He was slashing laterally like we have never seen, breaking players ankles, with seemingly no effort. The way he ran tonight in CBP Offense reminds me of Barry Sanders. He seems that good. Dom Brown may have a fight on his hands with Dyer this year. He was so good, that it seemed to "balance" the scoring, they moved Dyer to the White team for the 2nd half.....and he scored a TD with not much hole, on the 1st Team Defense in 2 or 3 plays.

Don't sleep! He's free money if he's out there in your league being treated as a flyer or throw-in.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Karlos Williams is going to blow the doors off this year. He runs a bit high, he could be thicker in the legs...but he's a hell of an athlete and he's going to scream up people's rankings as the season wears on. He's raw, but that means he's got low mileage. And he's a size/speed freak.

 

[EBF]

He certainly has his fans. He's very fast.

He's a north-south guy. Not a lot of cutting ability, although he's got just a little bit of shake-and-bake in the open field.

High center of gravity with very long legs. A little bit top heavy and lanky.

If you watch his highlight reel, it's a lot of one cut and go stuff. Straight line runs that use his speed. Not too many dazzling cuts.

He reminds me a lot of Darren McFadden, except he's more solid through the lower body.

 

[Xue]

Karlos Williams is going to blow the doors off this year. He runs a bit high, he could be thicker in the legs...but he's a hell of an athlete and he's going to scream up people's rankings as the season wears on. He's raw, but that means he's got low mileage. And he's a size/speed freak.

He's being taken as the #2 RB in all my Devy drafts so far. Devy guys are already keen on him.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Karlos Williams is going to blow the doors off this year. He runs a bit high, he could be thicker in the legs...but he's a hell of an athlete and he's going to scream up people's rankings as the season wears on. He's raw, but that means he's got low mileage. And he's a size/speed freak.

He's being taken as the #2 RB in all my Devy drafts so far. Devy guys are already keen on him.

All players available? Went as the #3 RB in my league a month or two ago (to me), after Gordon and Henry. Gurley, Yeldon, Duke were already off the board from the previous year.

 

[Xue]

Karlos Williams is going to blow the doors off this year. He runs a bit high, he could be thicker in the legs...but he's a hell of an athlete and he's going to scream up people's rankings as the season wears on. He's raw, but that means he's got low mileage. And he's a size/speed freak.

He's being taken as the #2 RB in all my Devy drafts so far. Devy guys are already keen on him.

All players available? Went as the #3 RB in my league a month or two ago (to me), after Gordon and Henry. Gurley, Yeldon, Duke were already off the board from the previous year.

Yes.

 

[tdmills]

Karlos Williams is going to blow the doors off this year. He runs a bit high, he could be thicker in the legs...but he's a hell of an athlete and he's going to scream up people's rankings as the season wears on. He's raw, but that means he's got low mileage. And he's a size/speed freak.

He's being taken as the #2 RB in all my Devy drafts so far. Devy guys are already keen on him.

All players available? Went as the #3 RB in my league a month or two ago (to me), after Gordon and Henry. Gurley, Yeldon, Duke were already off the board from the previous year.

Yes.

I don't see that. While he's a size speed guy, he is below average in instincts, vision and change of direction. I see a knile Davis type with him

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Karlos Williams is going to blow the doors off this year. He runs a bit high, he could be thicker in the legs...but he's a hell of an athlete and he's going to scream up people's rankings as the season wears on. He's raw, but that means he's got low mileage. And he's a size/speed freak.

He's being taken as the #2 RB in all my Devy drafts so far. Devy guys are already keen on him.

All players available? Went as the #3 RB in my league a month or two ago (to me), after Gordon and Henry. Gurley, Yeldon, Duke were already off the board from the previous year.

Yes.

I don't see that. While he's a size speed guy, he is below average in instincts, vision and change of direction. I see a knile Davis type with him

I think he's way too raw to say for sure what his weaknesses are yet, this year will tell the story. He had barely played RB before last year and was basically operating completely off of instincts, which all seemed to scream "don't mess around, just get up-field".

 

[cstu]

Really like Ameer, but he's got a different body type and he's quicker than fast. Some of his cuts are insane. He can catch the ball too. Very athletic and very productive. Despite the workload he's handled at Nebraska, I think he's best suited to a commitee role as sort of a Warrick Dunn type of guy.

Just started watching Ameer and I'm impressed. Definitely see a lot of Dunn in him.

 

[Xue]

Lot's of sleepers in the 2015 draft class who have the potential to blow up as prospects. Seems like there's so many guys who have workhorse size in 2015 relative to past years; more excited about this RB class than any in a while.

Guys like Terrence Magee, Javorius Allen, Tevin Coleman, Shock Linwood, Paul James, and Dwayne Washington are a few names that I don't think have been mentioned that can be added to the names already listed in here who have 1st/2nd round upside imo.

Dwayne Washington is next year's Melvin Gordon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8_jko9QbsA

Here are his numbers during spring testing:

40: ------------- 4.44

Vertical: ------ 36.5"

Broad Jump: 10'9.25"

3-cone: ------- 6.63

https://twitter.com/coachtimsocha/status/468868148075438080

https://twitter.com/coachtimsocha/status/468830364639576065

https://twitter.com/coachtimsocha/status/468836310816673792

https://twitter.com/coachtimsocha/statuses/468860803962384384

 

[ZWK]

Gordon & Ajayi are the only two that I've really watched video on, and I like them both a lot. Based on my charting, they both have elusiveness numbers that are better than anyone in the 2013 or 2014 draft classes except for Eddie Lacy & Dri Archer (Gordon also shines in Peshek's elusiveness numbers). I would put them both in the same tier as my top 2 RB prospects in this year's class (Seastrunk & Hyde); not sure about the order.

I haven't formed strong impressions yet on the rest of the 2015+ draft classes, but going strictly by the numbers (college stats, listed size, nflds projected 40 time), Yeldon & Gurley stand out ahead of the pack and the rest rank in this order:

Byron Marshall

Mike Davis

Terrence Magee

Duke Johnson

Corey Grant

Javorius Allen

Kenneth Dixon

Tevin Coleman

Karlos Williams

Thomas Tyner

Shock Linwood

Ameer Abdullah

I've done some more charting, and Karlos Williams & Ameer Abdullah join Gordon and Ajayi as guys with top notch elusiveness numbers (Duke Johnson is in the same range with a small sample size). Gurley and Yeldon are just a bit above average in their elusiveness numbers, well within the pack.

 

[Denver724]

Lot's of sleepers in the 2015 draft class who have the potential to blow up as prospects. Seems like there's so many guys who have workhorse size in 2015 relative to past years; more excited about this RB class than any in a while.

Guys like Terrence Magee, Javorius Allen, Tevin Coleman, Shock Linwood, Paul James, and Dwayne Washington are a few names that I don't think have been mentioned that can be added to the names already listed in here who have 1st/2nd round upside imo.

Dwayne Washington is next year's Melvin Gordon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8_jko9QbsA

Here are his numbers during spring testing:

40: ------------- 4.44

Vertical: ------ 36.5"

Broad Jump: 10'9.25"

3-cone: ------- 6.63

https://twitter.com/coachtimsocha/status/468868148075438080

https://twitter.com/coachtimsocha/status/468830364639576065

https://twitter.com/coachtimsocha/status/468836310816673792

https://twitter.com/coachtimsocha/statuses/468860803962384384

Is this a concern?

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlesports/2014/04/11/huskies-notes-shaq-thompson-making-case-at-rb/

 

[Bronx Bomber]

Gordon & Ajayi are the only two that I've really watched video on, and I like them both a lot. Based on my charting, they both have elusiveness numbers that are better than anyone in the 2013 or 2014 draft classes except for Eddie Lacy & Dri Archer (Gordon also shines in Peshek's elusiveness numbers). I would put them both in the same tier as my top 2 RB prospects in this year's class (Seastrunk & Hyde); not sure about the order.

I haven't formed strong impressions yet on the rest of the 2015+ draft classes, but going strictly by the numbers (college stats, listed size, nflds projected 40 time), Yeldon & Gurley stand out ahead of the pack and the rest rank in this order:

Byron Marshall

Mike Davis

Terrence Magee

Duke Johnson

Corey Grant

Javorius Allen

Kenneth Dixon

Tevin Coleman

Karlos Williams

Thomas Tyner

Shock Linwood

Ameer Abdullah

I've done some more charting, and Karlos Williams & Ameer Abdullah join Gordon and Ajayi as guys with top notch elusiveness numbers (Duke Johnson is in the same range with a small sample size). Gurley and Yeldon are just a bit above average in their elusiveness numbers, well within the pack.

I like Williams but elusiveness isn't something that comes to mind when I watch him. Actually I see the opposite where it seems like he can't change direction at all once he gets going. Very DMC like. What are you basing you elusiveness ratings on?EDIt: nevermind, I followed the link chain. I think I'm going with film on this one though. Those missed tackled are from running over people not missing them for instance.

 

[Xue]

Just made a deal for a Top 3 pick in 2015. Any rankings list of the projected players, Seniors and Juniors, in 2015 anywhere?

Who is everyones #1 overall fantasy pick for next year at this point?

There are probably quite a few posts on that topic already.

You might find this link helpful:

http://ffoasis.com/devy/rankings/2015/BigBoard.php

IMO the devy community is a bit of an echo chamber and the groupthink within it leads to certain clusters of players becoming overrated while others become underrated, but the link will give you an idea of what you might expect from a typical devy draft.

Interesting list. There's just a tonne of value to be had in late round RBs in devy drafts right now imo.

Byron Marshall looks the most overrated to me. He's fast but he's not very shifty at all, especially for such a small and skinny back. He'll be a nobody in the NFL imo, he'd be on my do-not-draft list for devy drafts, let alone a top 10 pick.

After him, Melvin Gordon strikes me as a guy who's very overrated right now, by this time next year I think there'll be a consensus that there's a bunch of other RBs who are in his tier as a prospect, if not higher than him.

One of those RBs I think fits into that category is Javorius Allen; he's ~6'0 215lbs, plays for national powerhouse USC, and he put up these numbers over the final 6 game stretch of the season against PAC-10 teams:

106 carries, 648 rushing yards (6.11 YPC), 12 rushing TDs, 19 receptions, 243 receiving yards (12.8 YPR), 1 receiving TD.

Frankly I don't get why he's so underrated right now. He's bigger, shiftier, and perhaps just as fast as Melvin Gordon, yet he doesn't even make that list of 25 prospects. Imo he's in the same tier as Melvin Gordon right now if not higher.

This is from a different thread, but wanted to bring the discussion here.....

Allen goes down way too easily on ankle tackles compared to Gordon. He's #37 in this vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GauOGG01fX8

Regardless, I don't think the talent level is close between Allen and Gordon. Gordon looks like he can put up a 40" vertical and 11' broad jump. I just don't see that with Allen, though I do like him very much. His Sophomore teammate is more talented, Justin Davis. The kid (literally) averaged 6.8 YPC while he was still 17 years old last season.

As for Byron Marshall, he's shown shiftiness when he needs it: http://youtu.be/0V6T2P2AIOc?t=1m24s

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Just made a deal for a Top 3 pick in 2015. Any rankings list of the projected players, Seniors and Juniors, in 2015 anywhere?

Who is everyones #1 overall fantasy pick for next year at this point?

There are probably quite a few posts on that topic already.

You might find this link helpful:

http://ffoasis.com/devy/rankings/2015/BigBoard.php

IMO the devy community is a bit of an echo chamber and the groupthink within it leads to certain clusters of players becoming overrated while others become underrated, but the link will give you an idea of what you might expect from a typical devy draft.

Interesting list. There's just a tonne of value to be had in late round RBs in devy drafts right now imo.

Byron Marshall looks the most overrated to me. He's fast but he's not very shifty at all, especially for such a small and skinny back. He'll be a nobody in the NFL imo, he'd be on my do-not-draft list for devy drafts, let alone a top 10 pick.

After him, Melvin Gordon strikes me as a guy who's very overrated right now, by this time next year I think there'll be a consensus that there's a bunch of other RBs who are in his tier as a prospect, if not higher than him.

One of those RBs I think fits into that category is Javorius Allen; he's ~6'0 215lbs, plays for national powerhouse USC, and he put up these numbers over the final 6 game stretch of the season against PAC-10 teams:

106 carries, 648 rushing yards (6.11 YPC), 12 rushing TDs, 19 receptions, 243 receiving yards (12.8 YPR), 1 receiving TD.

Frankly I don't get why he's so underrated right now. He's bigger, shiftier, and perhaps just as fast as Melvin Gordon, yet he doesn't even make that list of 25 prospects. Imo he's in the same tier as Melvin Gordon right now if not higher.

This is from a different thread, but wanted to bring the discussion here.....

Allen goes down way too easily on ankle tackles compared to Gordon. He's #37 in this vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GauOGG01fX8

Regardless, I don't think the talent level is close between Allen and Gordon. Gordon looks like he can put up a 40" vertical and 11' broad jump. I just don't see that with Allen, though I do like him very much. His Sophomore teammate is more talented, Justin Davis. The kid (literally) averaged 6.8 YPC while he was still 17 years old last season.

As for Byron Marshall, he's shown shiftiness when he needs it: http://youtu.be/0V6T2P2AIOc?t=1m24s

I'm not one who puts much stake in the combine, so the fact that Gordon is likely a better physical athlete than Allen is of little consequence to me. Being a better athlete isn't as important as being a better NFL RB, and I think Allen's game will translate to the NFL better.

I do like Justin Davis a lot as well, and he very well may be more talented than Allen, but I do have some worries about Davis. Mainly his size, if his listed size at 6'1 200lbs is accurate he needs to put on a good bit more weight; and just watching him last year his lower body looked pretty skinny. Plus he did nothing at all in the passing game. Though both of those issues can still be corrected before his draft year, and as you mentioned he's still super young so there's good reason to believe he can still develop. He's definitely someone to monitor.