6.30.20 Your Guess On Chances The NFL Gets In 10 Regular Season Games (1 Viewer)

[Moonlight]

Did the virus go away? If not, then zero. As I thought about it would just take one or two teams becoming infected to throw the whole schedule out the door.

Plus quarantine times if even one teammate is infected.

All the guys sweating, breathing on each other, poking their fingers into eyes - high risk.

 

[mozzy84]

I went with 80% mainly because of the money for everyone involved.  I am assuming if soccer can pull it off football will be able too.  Will be interesting to watch it play out.

That said I still can't believe the other 3 big sports haven't started up in some way so maybe my 80% is way high.

 

[jrt103]

100% because money

 

[Steve Tasker]

I voted 80%.  There is too much money riding on it for all of the parties involved to walk away without fighting tooth-and-nail for a season.  It may not be a consecutive 10 weeks, there may be multiple delays and false starts to the season, they may need some sort of bubble, but I still think they will get 10 games in.  I do not think there will be fans in the stands.

I think the only things that really shut this down are if teams start forfeiting games due to an outbreak or if a player/coach dies.  Now, that's not to say I agree with the philosophy of taking this virus too lightly, but I find it really, really hard to believe that the stakeholders in the NFL will just walk away from a season due to it.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Another example of how difficult this thing is -- FC Dallas left for the MLS bubble town in Orlando on June 27 with all players and staff having passed their covid tests.  Since their arrival in Orlando, they've had 6 players test positive.  Those players are now isolated in their hotel rooms.  Their first game is July 8.

Can FC Dallas play a soccer game on July 8, even if these six are held out?  What if these 6 get a negative test a day or two before the game, but some other team members test positive in the meantime?  What if the entire team is negative as of the morning of the game? Can they play? 

https://twitter.com/FCDallas/status/1278377585727213570/photo/1

 

[jvdesigns2002]

i said 0%.  even the hint of CV has to shut this down, being a contact sport.  i think the players despise the owners over the kaepernick thing and hate goodell, though he hasn’t been arrested for domestic violence nor tested positive for roids.  CV and BLM issues and tensions, no fans, the age of officials seem to stack against playing.  that said, money is a hell of a drug.  

The money argument is over stated and tired.  Just because people/businesses want money--doesn't guarantee they are just entitled to get it.  How much is Disney losing every day by not having their parks opened?   I'm sure they want those billions of dollars--so why is the same argument not applied there?  How about the cruiselines?   The amount of money the NFL could make in an environment where their costs will be astronomical with greater liability/massive testing/creating a bubble in an eco-system where there would be limited to no fans/fewer games is not as economically appealing as some here are making it out to be.   The reality of the situation is that under the circumstances--the economic ceiling for the NFL in terms of having a season is far lower than normal. There is a legitimate argument where the risk outweighs the limited economic reward this season. 

 

[The Gator]

There is a legitimate argument where the risk outweighs the limited economic reward this season. 

Clearly you have never been an NFL owner...  they did not get filthy rich without taking some morally dubious positions.

NFL owners, for the most part, are in control of their own financial decisions here.  They don't need governmental permission to hold games.  (They would need permission to add fans - but not to play the games for TV).

A quick look at the Cowboys - they would owe players somewhere in the neighborhood of $240M this year - and I don't think that is tied to the number of games they play.  Those are not paper losses - that is actual cash Jerry Jones would have to fork out.  Jones, and other NFL owners, will do what they can to ensure they are not paying players to not play this season.  They will take a few risks along the way.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Clearly you have never been an NFL owner...  they did not get filthy rich without taking some morally dubious positions.

NFL owners, for the most part, are in control of their own financial decisions here.  They don't need governmental permission to hold games.  (They would need permission to add fans - but not to play the games for TV).

A quick look at the Cowboys - they would owe players somewhere in the neighborhood of $240M this year - and I don't think that is tied to the number of games they play.  Those are not paper losses - that is actual cash Jerry Jones would have to fork out.  Jones, and other NFL owners, will do what they can to ensure they are not paying players to not play this season.  They will take a few risks along the way.

If the question is what percent will the NFL/owners attempt to have a season--I would then answer the question at 80-100%.   I agree with your response in regards to that completely. However--thats not what the question asks.  The question asks--what are the odds that the NFL gets a full 10 week regular season in.   My point is that their desire for money and risk taking doesn't guarantee that they will get a 10 week regular season in.  In your scenario--let's say by week 4-5--NFL players and coaches are catching the virus and are dropping like flies (not dying--just falling sick by clusters)--then what?   Even the best tests are maybe 90% accurate.   If there are 100 people combined per game (both teams rosters, officials, staff, trainers, medical staff..etc)--that means that there will be maybe 10 inaccurate tests per game.  If they have 10-15 games per week--thats maybe 100-150 inaccurate test results per week.   This pretty much guarantees that there at least be moderate break outs during the season.   

 

[Chemical X]

preseason already being halved

 

[Mongidig]

It's gonna be stressful watching basketball, hockey and baseball. Everyday I'll be watching the news and praying for no bad news. I feel like Fantasy Football is gonna suck this year. Even if my team is winning I'm gonna be stressed that the season will be cancelled at some point. 

But then I bring myself back to reality and realize that a lot can happen in the next couple months. Maybe it's a new great therapeutic drug or perhaps a genius invention that can keep the players safe on the field. They are working on it, that's for sure. Is there talk of a face shield/mask for the players? 

 

[Shaunz33]

I said 70%. I mean you could even start week 1 on thanksgiving and still get 10 weeks in with super bowl end of a February. Though that doesn’t consider any bye weeks but just for illustration.

I think they start October. they can see through August how it goes for other US sports then have the abbreviated camps/preseason games.

What I continue to wonder is if the other US major sports starting sooner than football will help or hurt the chances. I could see NFL saying, well, we learned from them and so we will do X, Y to be better. Those other sports would probably have to totally be derailed to then not attempt a 10+ game season.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I think they will do everything they can to make it happen. 

Billionaire owners want their money 

Millionaire network execs want their money

Millionaire players want their money

Players on the bubble want the chance to make their money

Fans want their football 

The president and Senate want this for political reasons 

Too many people want this. They will clear every road block they can until or unless a player or coach dies. 

This is why I voted 50% even though I think that, from a health perspective, the actual odds are much lower. 

 

[CletiusMaximus]

The money argument is over stated and tired.  Just because people/businesses want money--doesn't guarantee they are just entitled to get it.  How much is Disney losing every day by not having their parks opened?   I'm sure they want those billions of dollars--so why is the same argument not applied there?  How about the cruiselines?   The amount of money the NFL could make in an environment where their costs will be astronomical with greater liability/massive testing/creating a bubble in an eco-system where there would be limited to no fans/fewer games is not as economically appealing as some here are making it out to be.   The reality of the situation is that under the circumstances--the economic ceiling for the NFL in terms of having a season is far lower than normal. There is a legitimate argument where the risk outweighs the limited economic reward this season. 

There are a few crucial differences between most normal businesses like a Disney park or a cruise line and a sports league. For one, the major cost for an nfl team is player salaries and those have to be paid, re-negotiated or cut loose. None of those is a good option if they aren’t playing games. NFL teams can’t just furlough or terminate their employees just because there’re no games. Also, the main source of their revenue doesn’t depend on customers buying tickets like an amusement park or other entertainment or retail businesses. They can realize most of their revenue- television and sponsorships - without butts in seats. 
 

 

[TheWinz]

Lots of talk about the owners, and why they would want a season, but what about the players?  Are there any benefits to players if there is no 2020 season?  Do they still get paid their full salary?  If their salaries are guaranteed, seems like the over the hill guys making a boatload would benefit the most.

QB - Rivers would get $25M to preserve his body, while Mahomes & Jackson would get under $8M combined, and lose a year proving they deserve more

RB - Bell & Johnson are at the top of the list, and are too old to get another payday

I could go on, but you get the picture.

 

[Thorpe]

Lots of talk about the owners, and why they would want a season, but what about the players?  Are there any benefits to players if there is no 2020 season?  Do they still get paid their full salary?  If their salaries are guaranteed, seems like the over the hill guys making a boatload would benefit the most.

QB - Rivers would get $25M to preserve his body, while Mahomes & Jackson would get under $8M combined, and lose a year proving they deserve more

RB - Bell & Johnson are at the top of the list, and are too old to get another payday

I could go on, but you get the picture.

The NFL and the NFL Player Association would have to negotiate salaries if there is less than a full season.  Hardly anyone has any guaranteed money in the NFL, except for signing bonuses.  But if a team doesn't want to pay a player, they would have to cut him and make him a free agent.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

preseason already being halved

I am now a fan of the coronavirus.

 

[Steve Tasker]

Lots of talk about the owners, and why they would want a season, but what about the players?  Are there any benefits to players if there is no 2020 season?  Do they still get paid their full salary?  If their salaries are guaranteed, seems like the over the hill guys making a boatload would benefit the most.

QB - Rivers would get $25M to preserve his body, while Mahomes & Jackson would get under $8M combined, and lose a year proving they deserve more

RB - Bell & Johnson are at the top of the list, and are too old to get another payday

I could go on, but you get the picture.

I had heard some discussions about whether this would count as a year on a player's contract if no games were played, or whether it qualifies as an service year for retirement pensions for players in the future when they retire.  Is it a partial service year for the pension benefits if only a partial season is played?  Lots of questions.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

There are a few crucial differences between most normal businesses like a Disney park or a cruise line and a sports league. For one, the major cost for an nfl team is player salaries and those have to be paid, re-negotiated or cut loose. None of those is a good option if they aren’t playing games. NFL teams can’t just furlough or terminate their employees just because there’re no games. Also, the main source of their revenue doesn’t depend on customers buying tickets like an amusement park or other entertainment or retail businesses. They can realize most of their revenue- television and sponsorships - without butts in seats. 
 

I understand that--and your point is again a motivation of why the NFL would want to play an entire 10 game season--but want and reality are two completely different things.  There are also differences in the fact that the average NFL player/coach salary is far greater than that of the employees at a place like Disney. If a player gets sick and suffers long term lung function or death on a job--how much will that cost the NFL?    If a cluster of players get sick because of inaccurate covid tests that were performed by the NFL and their attempted bubble--then what?     My point is that desire and money alone are motivation to want and start a season--but they have little to no bearing on if they can complete a full season.  That's more obstacle based than it is desire based. 

 

[Psychopav]

I think they will do everything they can to make it happen. 

Billionaire owners want their money 

Millionaire network execs want their money

Millionaire players want their money

Players on the bubble want the chance to make their money

Fans want their football 

The president and Senate want this for political reasons 

Too many people want this. They will clear every road block they can until or unless a player or coach dies. 

I agree.  Voted 90%.

Bears STH here (look at me!) and they are saying that there's a chance that they give me all my money back for the season and tell me I'm not welcome.  They indicated that they are considering limiting attendance to a specific number of STH's, in order to enforce social distancing.  And to stay tuned.

 

[bagger]

I put 100%.  As bfred said, the NFL will push this to happen.  With that said I don’t think there will be fans in the stadiums (or at best very few), and they could push the season start back by month(s).

but they’re playing the whole season.

 

[Joe Summer]

The people who point to European soccer as a template are overlooking a couple of crucial differences:

1. Europe flattened the curve. The USA, so far, has not.

2. the German league only played for 8 weeks, and the Premier League has only been back for 2 weeks. So maybe we should hold off on predicting a full NFL season until another league actually plays a full season?

Also, not for nothing, but soccer does not feature as much close contact as gridiron football does. The risk of linemen passing the virus to each other is greater than the risk of soccer players transmitting it to other players, I'd think. And even though the odds of in-game transmission are relatively low to begin with, I think they're still higher with gridiron football than with association football. It's not a huge factor, but it is a factor.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

The people who point to European soccer as a template are overlooking a couple of crucial differences:

1. Europe flattened the curve. The USA, so far, has not.

2. the German league only played for 8 weeks, and the Premier League has only been back for 2 weeks. So maybe we should hold off on predicting a full NFL season until another league actually plays a full season?

Also, not for nothing, but soccer does not feature as much close contact as gridiron football does. The risk of linemen passing the virus to each other is greater than the risk of soccer players transmitting it to other players, I'd think. And even though the odds of in-game transmission are relatively low to begin with, I think they're still higher with gridiron football than with association football. It's not a huge factor, but it is a factor.

There are a ton of relevant differences between the NFL and these various soccer leagues.  Its not an argument for anything one way or another, but is just a data point for several major televised sports leagues that are making a go of it.  In England, the clubs are playing games every 3rd or 4th day to get the season finished.  They made a ton of other major changes to get it done. No one would say its an identical situation, but is at least analogous and perhaps a few lessons can be learned. At minimum, I assume NFL owners are happy to see these leagues not having to forego (or in some cases even refund) all that tv money.

 

[Mongidig]

The direction the number of deaths go in the next couple weeks will be key to the NFL's chances. Deaths lag behind cases. If the number of deaths stay relatively low compared to cases then that would be great news. If there is a significant spike in deaths then that could spell trouble. I think average people and those connected to the NFL will tolerate Covid cases. I fear that significant deaths will spook many involved. I think this would make many players and coaches rethink participating in a season. 

Most of the new cases are younger kids who will recover. The question will be how many vulnerable people have been infected by these kids. I think those in the vulnerable population are more aware of who they need to stay away from. Bottom line is the better we get at limiting the spread of virus the quicker the recovery will be. Many states are mandating mask wearing and shutting down bars. This is a directly targeting where the current infections are coming from. I'm optimistic that by the end of this month we will be trending in the right direction. 

Therefore, I am moving from a 27% confidence rating up to a 51% confidence rating.

 

[Anarchy99]

In the early going, I thought the NFL would be at a huge advantage compared to other sports, as they would be the last major sport getting to live competition. In theory, they had the most time to come up with a plan and would have the benefit of seeing what other sports were doing and learn from what worked or didn't work for those other sports.

However, I have rethought that, as I think the NFL will suffer the most having to wait the longest. The potential exists for players, coaches, team staff, families, facility staff, officials, fans, etc. to get infected, hospitalized, or pass away. Here we are almost 4 months later and we haven't seen much more than European soccer, PGA golf, NASCAR, and Australian Rules Football.

My fear is that basketball / baseball / hockey (or any of the other sports) will start to have issues, and if players and coaches in other sports start getting hospitalized the NFL will have to backdown. The virus is still gaining steam in terms of spreading (the verdict is still out in terms of its severity), but the football season typically takes place during the traditional cold and flu season (which could easily be more severe than other years). If key stars in other sports elect not to participate (or get sick), I think all the other sports will take notice and will have to regroup and either take another break or initiate more cancellations (or throw in the towel for the season they are in).

It will be interesting to see if the bubble approach of the NBA or NHL will be effective as opposed to the cross country travel model of the MLB and NFL. I still feel the bubble approach would get the NFL the greatest amount of football possible under current conditions, but they seem dead set against that as a potential solution.

 

[KarmaPolice]

I've stopped following the NFL in the last few years - have they released a plan as to what their measures are going to be?

I voted what I thought was a VERY optimistic 20%.   I just don't see how they keep the players isolated enough.  Just the logistics of the sheer # of players, coaches, staff to take care of all that puts the chance of an outbreak really high.   Hell, around here we can't seem to go 1 month before being shut down.   My son's basketball team tried having a few practices since the gym opened up and there was issues less than 1 week later.   

Sadly, I think the 20% was just because of the money reason others have stated, and I think that is telling and pretty sad that this is our reason for thinking the league will try to do this.  

 

[Mongidig]

I think college football is gonna ruin it for everybody. There is no way colleges can control their environment unless the players are 100% in a bubble. There are so many more college players that due to the vast numbers we will probably see deaths even though that age group is at a much lower risk. The public won't care about the context revolving around whatever tragic stats may be reported. 

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

 

[Dentist]

40%   -   everyone mentioned the money motivation.   I feel like if any league will find a way it will be the NFL.   If these other sports can play the NFL will.

However, my Royals have lost 3 players to covid in just a week of being back and I see MLS has had to cancel some games and I feel like if MLB or NBA falter in their comebacks that the NFL could be in a bad spot.

I think fantasy football could be a real problem this year.. in the same way fantasy baseball was ruined

 

[Mongidig]

I think college football is gonna ruin it for everybody. There is no way colleges can control their environment unless the players are 100% in a bubble. There are so many more college players that due to the vast numbers we will probably see deaths even though that age group is at a much lower risk. The public won't care about the context revolving around whatever tragic stats may be reported. 

I no longer think college football is gonna ruin it because I don't think there will be college football.

 

[Mongidig]

40%   -   everyone mentioned the money motivation.   I feel like if any league will find a way it will be the NFL.   If these other sports can play the NFL will.

However, my Royals have lost 3 players to covid in just a week of being back and I see MLS has had to cancel some games and I feel like if MLB or NBA falter in their comebacks that the NFL could be in a bad spot.

I think fantasy football could be a real problem this year.. in the same way fantasy baseball was ruined

This could be an opportunity this year fantasy football wise to be able to get ahead of the curve regarding C19 and football. The faster you can adjust to the inevitable C19  ramifications, the better you will do. 

 

[leftcoastguy7]

The faster you can adjust to the inevitable C19  ramifications, the better you will do. 

Bump Zeke up in your rankings. He's already had the covid.