Big Nate
Footballguy
Re-read what I wrote. I think we generally agree and saying the same thing. Maybe in my rush (on my break) I didn't explain it as well as I could. It also really depends on the player and situation and league/settings and what the league "values". I think we generally agree!This is a deceiving statement. In general, the player is typically better than most players at that pick with regards to your starting lineup. Rookies generally don't have immediate value to your starting lineup. Of course, you can always hit on a rookie pick. it's in the possible outcomes but it generally isn't likely in the near term. The actual player picked with a draft typically isn't the value of the pick.1) Is the best case scenario for that pick to get a similar player back? Realistically, is the player better than most players drafted at that pick?
Pick value always goes up as you get closer to the draft while the player you trade away doesn't have that built in value rise. These fringe players are always better to turn into picks as you are moving towards the end of a season and getting into draft season. This is where you gain value in trading a player for a pick.
Also what you wrote about pick value and player value rising and falling at different times of year is very important. When to buy picks, when to trade picks, when to trade active key players during the season when their value is the highest.
One example is you could have bought Mike Evans for cheap this past offseason while now in the season he is more expensive. If you are contender you can trade that late second right before the draft for a veteran player to a team who sees these rookie picks as gold.