From what I can tell, he's slowly turning it into MySpace with the help of Zynga.Wall Street does not understand internet companies. You can't buy Facebook with the intent to trade it. If you want to buy it and hold on for 3-5 years it's got significant upside potential. Zuck will not make moves based on quarterly earnings or short term incentives. He's playing a long game that has huge potential. It's actually quite similar to early Amazon, where Bezos was telling people "I'm willing to be misunderstood for a long period of time". It will be a long time before anyone on Wall Street understands what Zuckerberg is doing.
Facebook Handled their IPO Exactly Right
Sep 4th 2012 8:30AM
Andrews Ross Sorkin wrote a piece for the NY Times that was just ridiculous. He put the blame squarely on the back of the CFO of FB. Talk about getting it 180 degrees wrong.
Have you ever been to an auction where the selling party told a buyer to reduce their price because they were worried that the item might not hold its value ? Neither have I. If the CFO of Facebook came on SharkTank and told me that he was able to sell his shares to the public for $38 a share, but turned down the opportunity, I would crush him for being an idiot.
Facebook was able to raise about 10 BILLION DOLLARS in this IPO. The CFO’s job is not to manage shareholder portfolios. His job is to help Facebook succeed. I don’t know about you, but putting 10 BILLION DOLLARS in the bank in my opinion is one way to help them succeed.
Who’s job is it to help manage the portfolio’s of FB investors ? If an investor doesn’t manage their own portfolio, the brokers who sold them the stock are responsible. It’s their job to read the prospectus if you as an investor are too lazy to do so. It is the job of the broker to help the investor understand the value of the company and make a buying decision. No question that there are a lot of brokers out there that did not do their jobs.
As far as traders who bought the stock hoping for a pop. No one cares about them. Seriously. You trade, you know you are going to lose on trades. That is how things work.
I bought and sold FB shares as a TRADE, not an investment. I lost money. When the stock didn’t bounce as I thought/hoped it would, I realized I was wrong and got out. It wasn’t the fault of the FB CFO that I lost money. It was my fault. I know that no one sells me shares of stock because they expect the price of the stock to go up. So someone saw me coming and they sold me the stock. That is the way the stock market works. When you sit at the trading terminal you look for the sucker. When you don’t see one, it’s you. In this case it was me.
If the goal of the company is to maximize the cash obtained from the IPO, then the CFO should absolutely price the stock to maximize the return. If the goal of the company is to get a 1 day pop to make a PR splash , that is a completely different strategy. It obviously was not the strategy of Facebook. Facebook maximized the cash available to it. They have been very clear that they will not manage the stock, they will manage the company to reach the goals they have been very open and honest about. Good for them.
Andrew did try to make one cogent argument that Facebook faced the risk of employees leaving because their options were underwater. Apparently Andrew forgot that companies can re-price their options. Problem solved.
I will leave you with this article from a few years back when Google was at a similar point, having lost more than TWICE the market cap valuation that Facebook has lost to this point.
...
Exactly right. This is true of all bets, whether buying or selling a stock, picking the over in the Chargers-Raiders game, or betting on horse #5 to show. You need to understand why the person on the opposite side of the transaction thinks he's making a good bet. If I'm going to buy facebook at $25, I need to understand why the other guy is selling. What's his rationale for thinking that the stock is worth less than that?If I can't spot the error in his reasoning (which necessitates knowing what his reasoning is), then maybe he's the one who's spotted the error in my reasoning. If I can't explain why he's the sucker, then it's pretty likely that I'm the sucker.(In fact, that doesn't only go for placing bets. It goes for pretty much everything. If I'm going to pick a side in the evolution-creationism debate, I better be able to articulate the other side's arguments as well as they can, and be able to explain why those arguments are deficient. If I can't do that — if I don't know their arguments as well as they do — I shouldn't be picking a side in the first place. But that principle is particularly important to heed when placing bets because, unlike in most other matters, there's an actual penalty for being wrong.)I know that no one sells me shares of stock because they expect the price of the stock to go up. So someone saw me coming and they sold me the stock. That is the way the stock market works. When you sit at the trading terminal you look for the sucker. When you don’t see one, it’s you.
The seller is looking to maximize revenue from the transaction. It is not their job to make sure the buyer is getting "fair value". It is the buyers responsibility to valuate and act accordingly. If you are relying on market makers to tell you how much a stock is worth, then you didn't learn anything about these scumbags in the last 15 years.That sounds like something was going on behind closed doors. Why would it be priced more than double its value, while ownership knew it was nowhere near that much?No way. The stock price has plummeted since the IPO, but that's because it was priced too high then. As a result of being priced so high, however, it raised about $16 billion in cash. The people who put their cash into it may not be happy right now, but the company itself is flush.Does this mean facebook is in danger of going out of business?
Actually, it isn't exactly right, especially when talking about an IPO. People don't just issue or sell stock because they think it is overvalued or going to go down.Exactly right. This is true of all bets, whether buying or selling a stock, picking the over in the Chargers-Raiders game, or betting on horse #5 to show. You need to understand why the person on the opposite side of the transaction thinks he's making a good bet. If I'm going to buy facebook at $25, I need to understand why the other guy is selling. What's his rationale for thinking that the stock is worth less than that?If I can't spot the error in his reasoning (which necessitates knowing what his reasoning is), then maybe he's the one who's spotted the error in my reasoning. If I can't explain why he's the sucker, then it's pretty likely that I'm the sucker.(In fact, that doesn't only go for placing bets. It goes for pretty much everything. If I'm going to pick a side in the evolution-creationism debate, I better be able to articulate the other side's arguments as well as they can, and be able to explain why those arguments are deficient. If I can't do that — if I don't know their arguments as well as they do — I shouldn't be picking a side in the first place. But that principle is particularly important to heed when placing bets because, unlike in most other matters, there's an actual penalty for being wrong.)I know that no one sells me shares of stock because they expect the price of the stock to go up. So someone saw me coming and they sold me the stock. That is the way the stock market works. When you sit at the trading terminal you look for the sucker. When you don’t see one, it’s you.
I just noticed this. I guess Facebook finally realized that they need to find a way to monetize their "billion users".
This has been around for Pages for quite some time, I believe. I think we can agree it's probably a good thing for Facebook's bottom line, right? Facebook is pulling back the ability for sites/apps to spam all your activity to the wall (see the latest developer blog post for details), so while some may find this a little "spammy", for the most part it is showing posts that people actually want to see and it replaces the "So and so just read this article about Blah, blah, blah."I just noticed this. I guess Facebook finally realized that they need to find a way to monetize their "billion users".
brilliant insight. thanks guyAn IPO is nothing special. There is zero inherent profit just because it's an IPO. It's a bet just like every other stock out there. Could go up, could go down. Just because it's an IPO has nothing to do with undervalue or overvalue of it. Stock is a stock is a stock even at an IPO.
I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."I think an exodus is imminent. Facebook: I Want My Friends Backhttp://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
That is about the brands, not people. Misleading title. Basically he says he doesn't agree with Facebook's rate structure. IMO, businesses have been getting a great deal advertising for basically free on Facebook, and it is Facebook's prerogative to make changes to bring in revenue. If anything, less business posts in a users stream mean users should be happier (less spam, right?) I work in the industry, and we are not seeing brands leave Facebook - just the opposite, they are asking what else they can do on Facebook.I think an exodus is imminent.
Facebook: I Want My Friends Back
http://dangerousmind...my_friends_back
Good article. Looks like its finally time to check out Google+.I think an exodus is imminent. Facebook: I Want My Friends Backhttp://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
I think the point of the article is that Facebook is pricing out their customers. The guy was okay with paying $30k per year to have his articles reach his "friends" but not okay with $675k per year.It's not a matter of charging vs not charging. It is a matter of price.That is about the brands, not people. Misleading title. Basically he says he doesn't agree with Facebook's rate structure. IMO, businesses have been getting a great deal advertising for basically free on Facebook, and it is Facebook's prerogative to make changes to bring in revenue. If anything, less business posts in a users stream mean users should be happier (less spam, right?) I work in the industry, and we are not seeing brands leave Facebook - just the opposite, they are asking what else they can do on Facebook.I think an exodus is imminent.
Facebook: I Want My Friends Back
http://dangerousmind...my_friends_back
I'll disagree. It hasn't been free. There are costs associated with building up your fan base on Facebook. I don't think it's considered spam. Consumers actively sought out that brand to like them in the first place. They voluntarily opted in to get information from those companies. If they think it is spam or they want less information, they can easily go and unlike that brand. Do you have any clients processing transactions or offering ecommerce inside the Facebook platform yet?That is about the brands, not people. Misleading title. Basically he says he doesn't agree with Facebook's rate structure. IMO, businesses have been getting a great deal advertising for basically free on Facebook, and it is Facebook's prerogative to make changes to bring in revenue. If anything, less business posts in a users stream mean users should be happier (less spam, right?) I work in the industry, and we are not seeing brands leave Facebook - just the opposite, they are asking what else they can do on Facebook.I think an exodus is imminent.
Facebook: I Want My Friends Back
http://dangerousmind...my_friends_back
Right. I like companies, restaurants, etc. on FB because I WANT updates from them. I want to know about deals and specials and bands and schedules and updates. I post things on my timeline because I WANT my friends to know about them. It sucks that only 15% of your friends see what you post anymore, yet I can promoted BS in my news feed from thing I am not subscribed to, I get conversations between friends and non-friends, and I get suggested friends that are obviously fakes.I'll disagree. It hasn't been free. There are costs associated with building up your fan base on Facebook. I don't think it's considered spam. Consumers actively sought out that brand to like them in the first place. They voluntarily opted in to get information from those companies. If they think it is spam or they want less information, they can easily go and unlike that brand. Do you have any clients processing transactions or offering ecommerce inside the Facebook platform yet?That is about the brands, not people. Misleading title. Basically he says he doesn't agree with Facebook's rate structure. IMO, businesses have been getting a great deal advertising for basically free on Facebook, and it is Facebook's prerogative to make changes to bring in revenue. If anything, less business posts in a users stream mean users should be happier (less spam, right?) I work in the industry, and we are not seeing brands leave Facebook - just the opposite, they are asking what else they can do on Facebook.I think an exodus is imminent.
Facebook: I Want My Friends Back
http://dangerousmind...my_friends_back
The point that Facebook is imposing costs not found on similar services is a worrying one. I agree though, that post was awfully full of butthurt tone.I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."I think an exodus is imminent. Facebook: I Want My Friends Backhttp://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
Pretty sure this is on Pickles banned list.The point that Facebook is imposing costs not found on similar services is a worrying one. I agree though, that post was awfully full of butthurt tone.I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."I think an exodus is imminent.
Facebook: I Want My Friends Back
http://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
Pretty sure this is on Pickles banned list.The point that Facebook is imposing costs not found on similar services is a worrying one. I agree though, that post was awfully full of butthurt tone.I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."I think an exodus is imminent.
Facebook: I Want My Friends Back
http://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
Just us he's all butthurt about it doesn't mean we can't think its totally tight butthole.'Joe T said:Pretty sure this is on Pickles banned list.'Slapdash said:The point that Facebook is imposing costs not found on similar services is a worrying one. I agree though, that post was awfully full of butthurt tone.I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."I think an exodus is imminent.
Facebook: I Want My Friends Back
http://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
There's s reason they advertise on Facebook...because it has the largest network. If they want to access it Facebook has the right to charge what they want or they can go with the other networks.'Slapdash said:The point that Facebook is imposing costs not found on similar services is a worrying one. I agree though, that post was awfully full of butthurt tone.I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."I think an exodus is imminent. Facebook: I Want My Friends Backhttp://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
Nothing processing transactions/ecommerce within Facebook, but that isn't what this guy was referring to. He said it cost him $200 to promote a post, and he had about 10 posts a day he'd want to promote, for a total of around $2000 a day to reach the same audience as before the changes went into affect. And there are definitely costs building the business, but they have so far been in driving traffic to your Facebook page. We run advertising campaigns of tens of thousands of dollars and more for many of our customers.I'll disagree. It hasn't been free. There are costs associated with building up your fan base on Facebook. I don't think it's considered spam. Consumers actively sought out that brand to like them in the first place. They voluntarily opted in to get information from those companies. If they think it is spam or they want less information, they can easily go and unlike that brand. Do you have any clients processing transactions or offering ecommerce inside the Facebook platform yet?That is about the brands, not people. Misleading title. Basically he says he doesn't agree with Facebook's rate structure. IMO, businesses have been getting a great deal advertising for basically free on Facebook, and it is Facebook's prerogative to make changes to bring in revenue. If anything, less business posts in a users stream mean users should be happier (less spam, right?) I work in the industry, and we are not seeing brands leave Facebook - just the opposite, they are asking what else they can do on Facebook.I think an exodus is imminent.
Facebook: I Want My Friends Back
http://dangerousmind...my_friends_back
I do the same thing, but we have statistics showing that more than half of the people on Facebook that Like a brand do so only because they are going to get something because they Liked it - coupon, sweepstakes entry, etc. Those aren't people that want to see messages from those brands in their feed, they just have to click Like to get the offer. My thoughts on Facebook is this. That is where the people are. If businesses want to play, they have to do so by Facebook's rules. And it is fully within Facebook's rights to change both their sorting algorithm and whether or not to charge businesses for premium placement on people's wall. Will it work for Facebook? I don't know. But I don't think it'll cause a mass exodus of people, and if they people are there, I believe the businesses will stay.Right. I like companies, restaurants, etc. on FB because I WANT updates from them. I want to know about deals and specials and bands and schedules and updates. I post things on my timeline because I WANT my friends to know about them. It sucks that only 15% of your friends see what you post anymore, yet I can promoted BS in my news feed from thing I am not subscribed to, I get conversations between friends and non-friends, and I get suggested friends that are obviously fakes.
Been using Ghostery for the past week or so.Better Privacy and Ghostery are good ones for this.I appreciate the tip. I didn't know these extensions existed.I'm not sure, I think so. There are add-ons for Firefox that will delete these off of your hard drive though.If I use Firefox only for logging into Facebook, and use Chrome to surf everything else, does that super cookie span multiple browsers?The wikipedia article sounds like it does.Yes, they have been doing this for some time. Facebook and other sites install something called a "super cookie" (also called Locally Shared Object or Flash Cookie) on your machine which tracks your activity on any sites with a Facebook button, like this site. Your privacy and anonymity is an illusion, my friend.so even if I don't have FB open, it is tracking my net activity?
Like, ALL of my activity? Christ, FB is like my ex-wife.
http://blogs.howstuffworks.com/2009/08/11/super-cookies-lurk-in-your-browser/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_shared_object
Was just reading some research on FB and got reminded of this thread. Nice 50% return on that last piece toadstool in 6 mths!This is a live unfolding in front of us.Got 2000 at 20, I don't expect it to hit 16 (sold 65 goog to get in more, don't expect it to hit 16, but already have the order in.)I am down just over $30K of my $120K investment in fb. Still 10-16 months left to go, not really a noticable hit in my portfolio, but I still think the upside is worth the tiny risk. 10-16 months to go.I also may not be done buying, at $22 or $20 I might buy more.Update?I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)
Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.
Sigh. 11 months and a double up+. Missed some easy money here.Not jumping in at all, but lets face it, this is where ipo should have been issued. Lots of people calling for it to go lower, waiting for 10-12 seems smart.When or are people going to jump in? At $18 right now.
I still wouldn't be surprised to see this be its low as well. We'll see if support comes in, or if the bottom drops. My guess is also that if it drops to 15-16, it will see 10-12 before it hits 20+ again. Watch the charts and trends.
I jumped in on it when it went below $20. I missed the floor a little, but still ended up at right around $19 per share.Sigh. 11 months and a double up+. Missed some easy money here.Not jumping in at all, but lets face it, this is where ipo should have been issued. Lots of people calling for it to go lower, waiting for 10-12 seems smart.When or are people going to jump in? At $18 right now.
I still wouldn't be surprised to see this be its low as well. We'll see if support comes in, or if the bottom drops. My guess is also that if it drops to 15-16, it will see 10-12 before it hits 20+ again. Watch the charts and trends.