Mistabishi
Footballguy
Fading H2H or 5050 isn't advisable but it can work depending on the week. You always want to attempt to fade in tournaments if you are going for the jugular.
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FDuel Week 11 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter The Duff Man
- Start date
Rhythmdoctor didn't say that he was fading the trend. He was just pointing out that "fading" means going against, and he gave the trend as one example of something someone might fade.
A bit earlier in the thread, people were talking about fading week 11 (meaning not betting as much in week 11), and before that, there was talk of fading the Thursday night games (meaning to go very light on players in the Thursday night game in any Thursday contests one enters).
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
How did you infer from his comment that he thinks condia is losing $20,000 a week?
Blue-Kun
Footballguy
Last 3 Case Keenum starts:
ARZ 19.3
IND: 28.6
KC: 13.8
Last 3 Eli Manning starts:
OAK 8.3
PHI 9.74
MIN 12.5
Eli Manning hasn't exactly been a good QB vs. anyone these past few weeks. In fact outside of his first performance against Philly, he's been incredibly mediocre at best.
karmarooster
Footballguy
I'm casting an even broader net. Last week I got burned by Locker and Eli. I lost about 30% of my bankroll, and probably had them in close to 30% of my lineups... so do the math.
This week the strategy is almost all 50/50, in the $5 range to get those 50 team pools. With the wider net and the easier to win contests (as opposed to Doubles, Triples, etc.) I'm hoping to gain back that 30% I lost, without exposure to one player who could suck or get hurt.
At QB I've got a mix of almost everyone who I think has a solid matchup: RG3, Cam, Palmer, Foles, McCown, Stafford, Rivers, ASmith, and Wilson.
RBs are probably less diversified because I've got Sproles in about 50% of lineups, but his price is just too good to pass up.
I've also got Hilton in close to 80% of my Thursday night games, but he's the only Thursday player I've got.
TEs I'm mixing with Gronk, Graham, G.Graham, Reed, Gates, VD, and Cameron.
Same with defenses - Texans, Seahawks, Cards, Jets.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Lol, after being saved by James's broken foot last week, instead of pulling my remaining funds out I went all in again. Oye.
Heavy on:
All McCown
Shady, Lynch, Tate
Garcon, Decker, A Johnson, McCluster in a few longshot tourneys for cheap
All Gronk
Assorted Kickers
Cards or Texans
Heavy on:
All McCown
Shady, Lynch, Tate
Garcon, Decker, A Johnson, McCluster in a few longshot tourneys for cheap
All Gronk
Assorted Kickers
Cards or Texans
I was all in on Hilton earlier int he week but then I saw that TENN is VERY good versus the pass so I moved him out of almost all of my lineups. But he is Luck's #1 target, so I'm starting to sprinkle him in a few lineups again.
And Sproles has had such a disappearing act earlier in the year, it's worrisome to depend on him...
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karmarooster
Footballguy
Yeah, I hear ya on that. But there's a few reasons making me play him - he's only available on the Thursday games, and I'll be playing about half of my bets on Thursday and other half on Sunday. So if he's 80% of my thursday games, that's only 40% overall. He's cheap. He's been on fire. And I'm figuring that he'll be around 50% or higher in the Thursday games. So if he has a nice game, and I don't play him... it will suck. But if I do play him, and he's quiet, it won't hurt that bad because he's in so many other lineups.
karmarooster
Footballguy
I also like Welker, and he's not bad at 7400. In general I'm avoiding Manning this week because of his injury and the KC defense, but I'm thinking if he feels the pressure from the defense he'll look to Welker often on the hot-routes. Decker seems like the kind of guy who does well when Manning has extended time to find his 3rd/4th option. I'm still playing Decker because of his price, but it's tough to figure out due to the number of options, quality of defense, and the injury factor.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Thurs fade in effect although like some have mentioned I'll have TYH mixed in around 50%. Let others else play Luck, CJ2K, Vinatieri, etc because it's on TV. All of my live Primetime lineups have TYH and IndyD so I'm pretty locked in on what I need tonight anyways.
All this Sproles love has me a little concerned. I guess it's a pretty darn safe play though at that price.
All this Sproles love has me a little concerned. I guess it's a pretty darn safe play though at that price.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
TE ramblings...
Since I've been playing Fleener quite a bit lately since Wayne went down, he will probably go off tonight since he won't be in any of my lineups.
Housler seems like a nice pick at 4900 if you are not going with Graham/Gronk. The next one I'd even consider playing above Housler would be Reed at 5900.
ARZ/JAX...thoughts? Lots to choose from IMO at bargain prices (Palmer, Ellington, Fitz, Housler).
Since I've been playing Fleener quite a bit lately since Wayne went down, he will probably go off tonight since he won't be in any of my lineups.
Housler seems like a nice pick at 4900 if you are not going with Graham/Gronk. The next one I'd even consider playing above Housler would be Reed at 5900.
ARZ/JAX...thoughts? Lots to choose from IMO at bargain prices (Palmer, Ellington, Fitz, Housler).
karmarooster
Footballguy
I like Fitz, Palmer, Ellington, and Cards defense. Not playing Shorts after he stunk last week and now draws Peterson.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Yeah the Cards D will be well represented in my lineups, but at 5700 I didn't include them there. Probably will have over 75% of lineups with either SEA or ARZ.
Again, I don't know if I think the JAC matchup is as strong as it used to be.
Granted its Jacksonville, but they've had a strong month, you know.. for Jacksonville. Leading the Broncos and Colts at half, beating the semi competent Titans. And Fitzgerald looks like the kind of person who does a 360 when you tell him to "turn around" rather than turning and facing you.
Granted its Jacksonville, but they've had a strong month, you know.. for Jacksonville. Leading the Broncos and Colts at half, beating the semi competent Titans. And Fitzgerald looks like the kind of person who does a 360 when you tell him to "turn around" rather than turning and facing you.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Final 55k
McCown
Gore
Sproles
Andre Johnson
Vincent Jackson
Jeffery
Reed
Bills
Dawson
Final 60k
McCown
Lynch
Gore
Andre Johnson
Vincent Jackson
Jeffery
Reed
Hauschka
Giants
McCown
Gore
Sproles
Andre Johnson
Vincent Jackson
Jeffery
Reed
Bills
Dawson
Final 60k
McCown
Lynch
Gore
Andre Johnson
Vincent Jackson
Jeffery
Reed
Hauschka
Giants
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I have about 93% of my bank in play, screw it.
Maybe lots of the educated lower bankroll players were throwing down $200 for the big one and nothing left to play the field.
Maybe lots of the educated lower bankroll players were throwing down $200 for the big one and nothing left to play the field.
(HULK)
(Smash)
did You end up doing the qualifier?
JShare87
Footballguy
I won a ticket for it back in week 6. Anyone for some good advice?
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Not yet. I might deposit to play, havent decided.
It is only half full right now, watching this closely.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
JShare87
Footballguy
Sounds easy enough. Thanks
karmarooster
Footballguy
Yeah Hilton was around 40% in most of my games. I had him in 80% of my Thursday games. 6.9 points kinda sucks, but I don't think it's a back-breaker in the 50/50s considering his ownership level.(HULK) said:
Most others - CJ, Fitz, Wright, Fleener, Vinatieri are all at or below 5% ownership.
hagmania
Footballguy
JShare87
Footballguy
karmarooster
Footballguy
Surprises from Thursday games:
Andre Brown 20%
Andre Johnson 41%
Keenum at 26%
Reed at 37% (compared to Gronk and Graham below 10%, Gates around 15-20%)
Sproles only 5%?
Andre Brown 20%
Andre Johnson 41%
Keenum at 26%
Reed at 37% (compared to Gronk and Graham below 10%, Gates around 15-20%)
Sproles only 5%?
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Awesome thanks.
I'm surprised by a few. I think Prater is underused at 9% in this one, KC still has a redzone D but its the colts. I could see a few drives stalling and geting some FGs and even if i'm wrong, he's still kicking PATs and probably a FG so he's got a safe floor. I guess he's probably a better H2H play than a tourney play but still.
Also Pats D at 0.6% is surprising, I hate them as an organization but they've been undeniably good on D and historically good against mobile QBs like Cam. I could see them doing a good job in a low scoring affair.
Also Jordan Cameron got snubbed at 4% with a nice matchup that he already cashed in on before. Campbell loves him. And Knowshon at 4% is a shock as well. His price is admittedly high but still thought people would love him with Peyton a little gimpy.
Honestly I'm thinking of throwing these guys into a team for a tournament just to shake up the trends and see how it does. I've been thinking about this strategy for a while anyone ever try it? Just find guys you kind of like who are not frequently owned and putting them into a squad for Sunday?
karmarooster
Footballguy
Yeah that's probably a decent idea for a tourney, to try to target guys who have ownership less than 10%. Of course, that probably means you're choosing guys with difficult matchups. But if Cameron and Sproles are both in the less than 5% category, it's decent. I think Sproles is so low because you have to scroll way down for him, below some really bad options. I think he's hiding.
You were closer than me. I was thinking C.J. Spiller or Chad Johnson. (I am totally fading Chad Johnson this week.) Maybe it's because I just woke up, but it would have taken me quite a while to guess Chris Johnson.
karmarooster
Footballguy
(HULK)
(Smash)
He's not a backbreaker, but if you avoided him you're going into the weekend with an advantage.
I threw out a flier on an expert league, as I think this strategy works best there. All the percentages are by eyeballing the contests people posted (big thanks everyone btw, I appreciate the responses).
I put M. Stafford (10%), D. Sproles (5-7%), B. Leonard (2-4%), D. Hopkins (5%), S. Holmes (0%), D. Thomas (0%), Cameron (4%), Prater (10%), Jets D (10%).
A lot of these guys are feast or famine obviously, but heck, just maybe I'll win the lotto on a few and get enough production to cash. Like I said I've thought about this idea and screw it why not try it. I'll let you all know how it goes. Also open to some input if people have ideas to tinker. Rule of thumb is 10% ownership and under if you have suggestions.
