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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (1 Viewer)

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars

Mandatory addition for sports bettors, August 18, 2014

Verified Purchase(What's this?)

This review is from: Analytic Methods in Sports: Using Mathematics and Statistics to Understand Data from Baseball, Football, Basketball, and Other Sports (Hardcover)

This well-written text focuses on two areas: basic probability theory, and how to properly use various regressions in modeling. There are many examples using sports data answering sports related questions. While the first half of the book may be redundant to experienced sports bettors, the second half was the best I have ever read explaining how to properly use regressions to develop models. The examples identified problems with regressions (e.g., correlated or weak predictors) and alternative ways to attack models with those issues. The analysis and examples of regressions was clear and invaluable. I would recommend this book to any sports bettor, and especially those that are focusing more on "big data" modeling approaches to attack major markets or prop betting.
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Analytic Methods in Sports.pdf

 
ChainsawU said:
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars

Mandatory addition for sports bettors, August 18, 2014

Verified Purchase(What's this?)

This review is from: Analytic Methods in Sports: Using Mathematics and Statistics to Understand Data from Baseball, Football, Basketball, and Other Sports (Hardcover)

This well-written text focuses on two areas: basic probability theory, and how to properly use various regressions in modeling. There are many examples using sports data answering sports related questions. While the first half of the book may be redundant to experienced sports bettors, the second half was the best I have ever read explaining how to properly use regressions to develop models. The examples identified problems with regressions (e.g., correlated or weak predictors) and alternative ways to attack models with those issues. The analysis and examples of regressions was clear and invaluable. I would recommend this book to any sports bettor, and especially those that are focusing more on "big data" modeling approaches to attack major markets or prop betting.
Click to expand...
Analytic Methods in Sports.pdf
Click to expand...
I found Fightnomics and Every Shot Counts too.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Tiger Fan said:
swirvenirvin said:
The thing about the Pats which is why they have been so easy to bet the props on is the obvious... Belicheat abandons the run completely vs the top rushing defenses. Even in the Detroit game, Blount only had 3 carries or so with a few minutes left in the 4th and then he ran the clock on on the last 2 drives.

They have faced all 4 out of the top 5 rushing defenses in Den, Det, NYJ, and Bal. So I was originally thinking that this could be another easy prop match-up. With the overs on Brady and WR's/Vereen receptions. The problem is that Seattle is just as good vs the pass as they are vs the run while the other teams are weak or avg vs the pass. So that eliminates the easy edge in assuming that they go straight pass the entire game. Stewart and Lacy both had success the last 2 weeks vs the run, so they may try to actually establish a running game.

[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]To the point... It looks like I could be treading lightly on the player props at least for NE[/SIZE]
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Blount is 9:1 to score first TD. Even in the Detroit game, while the game was still "close" NE got inside the 10 four times. They ran the ball on the first play inside the 10 3/4 times. :shrug:
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yeah if they get down there he will still be getting the rock
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FWIW, played this to win .5u

 
ChainsawU said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Fightnomics
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MMA capping .pdf
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ahh, guy took until 2009 to get into MMA. "I am not impressed by his performance"

and i thought you guys were talking about one of the sites that collects data. One of the guy's on mmajunkie is good, but these are the 2 that seem to be the most accurate: http://www.fightmetric.com/. There is another good one that is totally escaping me at the moment, and i heard this was ok: and http://www.mmafightdb.com/online-mma-database-statistics/. I should actually check these more, but it seems the more i look into these the worse i do with picks

 
swirvenirvin said:
10-1 at 5d.. speaking of they have all their props up.. Very suprised
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Hoping they aren't ALL of their props. Don't see some of the ones discussed here, including National Anthem.

Swirve, I'm leaning under on Wilson's passing attempts and completions. Seems like GB was about worst case scenario, including overtime, and he attempted 1.5 more than the attempts prop and was still 3.5 under the completion prop. Thoughts?

 
Some middles out there..

Brady over 35.5 -130 pass at (Bov/5d) under 37.5 -115 (sportsbetting.ag)

Vereen over 2.5 carries -115 (sp.ag) under 3.5 -105 (bov)

 
ChainsawU said:
When the total is ≥ 210 the Suns are 15-7 SU and 13-8-1 ATS (avg line -1.5) with an O/U of 16-6. As the favorite when the total is ≥ 210 the Suns are 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS (avg line -5.6) with an O/U of 10-4. Those totals went 9-1 to the over when they were lined ≥ 213. Sagarin says this should be a pick'em, so the 2.5 is luring dudes in, with a little more than seven out of every 10 bets coming in on Houston. Due to the blackout laws I only get the local feed so it's going to be Houston dudes calling the game, and I dislike having to listen to the other (losing) side of what I'm o

n, so even though Suns ATS is the play (it will go to 2.0 later) I'm just going to join you on the total. I rode the bike at the gym today for about an hour and afterward the housekeeper took me aside and showed me a porno starring the very woman who had been riding next to me. I placed the over at Bovada just now.

Rockets/Suns o220 -115
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I like this a lot.
 
facook said:
swirvenirvin said:
10-1 at 5d.. speaking of they have all their props up.. Very suprised
Click to expand...
Hoping they aren't ALL of their props. Don't see some of the ones discussed here, including National Anthem.

Swirve, I'm leaning under on Wilson's passing attempts and completions. Seems like GB was about worst case scenario, including overtime, and he attempted 1.5 more than the attempts prop and was still 3.5 under the completion prop. Thoughts?
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Seattle didnt have the ball the entire first half. He didnt have a completion until 20 minutes into the game so attempts and opportunities were limited for him there. There is a decent chance both teams try running the ball which means more time off the clock and less plays. My numbers were pretty close at 17-26.5 and 218.5

 
swirvenirvin said:
facook said:
swirvenirvin said:
10-1 at 5d.. speaking of they have all their props up.. Very suprised
Click to expand...
Hoping they aren't ALL of their props. Don't see some of the ones discussed here, including National Anthem.

Swirve, I'm leaning under on Wilson's passing attempts and completions. Seems like GB was about worst case scenario, including overtime, and he attempted 1.5 more than the attempts prop and was still 3.5 under the completion prop. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Seattle didnt have the ball the entire first half. He didnt have a completion until 20 minutes into the game so attempts and opportunities were limited for him there. There is a decent chance both teams try running the ball which means more time off the clock and less plays. My numbers were pretty close at 17-26.5 and 218.5
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Thanks.

 
Surface-ish research re: Brady o/u 3.5 rush yards:

Good: SEA does a really good job on limiting QB's running, I think they gave up the 6th least total rushing yards. And more immobile QB's rarely even try.

Bad: Brady's gone over 3.5 a ton of times over the last 6-7 games. Looks like he's taking off more.

 
If anyone cares, there's lots of room in the cheap-o EPL GPP on DraftKings. United defense stack:

GK: DeGea

D: Jones, Rafael

M: Di Maria, Moses

F: Krkic, RVP

DH: Van Aanholt

 
These usually have some value...

total number of pats to have rushing attempt 4.5, to have a reception 6.5

total number of hawks to have rushing attempt 4, to have a reception 7

 
regularguy said:
swirvenirvin said:
gmbacm said:
swirvenirvin said:
Vereen over 2.5 carries -115 (sp.ag)
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sp is sportsbook? if so moved to u 3.5 -160
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yes sportsbook.ag , and I still see it at 2.5 this is for rushing attempts
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Do you lean one way or the other on these middles? I can't play the Bovada side for enough to bother with a middle.
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i put vereen at 3.5 so nothing there. I bet more on the over 35.5 for Brady as I had him at 38

 
swirvenirvin said:
These usually have some value...

total number of pats to have rushing attempt 4.5, to have a reception 6.5

total number of hawks to have rushing attempt 4, to have a reception 7
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I think michael has been out of the picture in the playoffs so even with a WR run it's a push on under Seattle 4 -150

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Frostillicus said:
Wake +4.5

Kansas State -2

Minnesota -5

Oregon -3

BYU -5.5

Auburn +11.5

Stanford -6.5
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OK State/K State o 123

TAMU/Tennessee u 121

FSU/UNC o 144

Mizzou/Arkansas u 148.5

Minn/Illinois o 140

Miami/Cuse u 128

Florida/Ole Miss u 134.5

SDSU/Colo St o 119.5

 
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