SanAntonioHolmes
Footballguy
georgetown ML +215 (1x)
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
That Colts game was huge for me. Boy, before Manning got that TD late in the first half, I was getting frustrated. Between that failed (dumb) QB sneak at the 1, and that long Braylon (he actually caught the ball) TD, everything seemed to go the other way. And that fumble...ugh. Talk about not wanting to be around people, I almost left the bar to just watch it at home. By the end of the day though, I was Mr. Social. 
Drinks for all my (new) friends!
I have had real conviction on the Super Bowls of late, and thankfully been right, but not this one. I'll likely be taking the points, but you can never feel that confident going against Manning. It's like you're holding your breath the entire time...
Drinks for all my (new) friends!I have had real conviction on the Super Bowls of late, and thankfully been right, but not this one. I'll likely be taking the points, but you can never feel that confident going against Manning. It's like you're holding your breath the entire time...
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
tailed ya.
Who would they have given the MVP to last night.....Brees still had 3TD and no INT, but yards and completion % were bad.Still, getting 5:1 now, is very nice
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Tracy PorterWho would they have given the MVP to last night.....Brees still had 3TD and no INT, but yards and completion % were bad.
Still, getting 5:1 now, is very nice
lumpy19
Footballguy
I'm on cuse -5.5tailed ya.
The Ref
Footballguy
I can't see many situations where the Saints win and Brees does not win MVP. I just wish the line was 2 like was projected before this weekend and not the 5.5 we are seeing now. I would have loved to hedge half of this off.Who would they have given the MVP to last night.....Brees still had 3TD and no INT, but yards and completion % were bad.Still, getting 5:1 now, is very nice
I already have 5u on the Saints to win the SB @ 2:1 and 5u on Brees MVP @ 5:1, so I doubt I'll put any more action on this game (maybe something on Indy to hedge a little)....but I don't understand the -5.5 line.....I'm assuming that the line is a reaction of the Colts playing so strong yesterday, and the Saints barely winning in a game where they created 5 turnovers.I think the Saints match up very well against the Colts......Clearly, Indy has been there before and that's an advantage...but not sure how much that's worth. Brees and Manning are extremely similar QBs in that they don't make mistakes, but I think the Saints have more weapons.I think the Saints will be able to score at will on Indy, and given Indy's inability to run, the Saints will be able to be very opportunistic on Defense.Saints 31Indy 17I can't see many situations where the Saints win and Brees does not win MVP. I just wish the line was 2 like was projected before this weekend and not the 5.5 we are seeing now. I would have loved to hedge half of this off.
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TheGooRoo
Footballguy
It's just so difficult to say this since the award is based on 1 game. In a best of 7 series, it's pretty safe to say that the cream will rise to the top, but in 1 game, a defensive play or a kick return alone can essentially win the award. Nobody in the world would have thought Tracy Porter would have had a shot to win the award last week (if it was awarded). 4 of the last 5 Super Bowl MVP's were pretty unexpected in hindsight. Looking at the list, since 2000, guys like Ray Lewis, Dexter Jackson, Deion Branch, Hines Ward, Eli Manning, and Santonio Holmes were all pretty improbable.I can't see many situations where the Saints win and Brees does not win MVP. I just wish the line was 2 like was projected before this weekend and not the 5.5 we are seeing now. I would have loved to hedge half of this off.
Still, getting 5:1 now, is very nice
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
The point of the betting line is to generate action on both sides of the game, vegas/offshore had this line in the 2.5 to 3.5 area(greek opened at 2.5, bookmaker at 3 and pinny at 3.5) and the market pushed it to 5.5. I think you're a little jaded being a saints fan in thinking they'll win by 2 td's, Indy hasn't lost when they're starters play.
The Ref
Footballguy
I have a different angle on this then you do. I would say Ray Lewis and Eli Manning were examples where if that team won they were going to be a big favorite to win the MVP. Deion Branch was a special situation because Tom Brady had a big blow out followed by a law suit with the sponsor and they basicaly said "give the award to anyone but". Jackson, and Ward didn't play for a team with a true superstar (big ben was a rookie and the D in Tampa was the superstar). If anything I'd say Holmes was the one outlier (Big Ben was a superstar by this point).At the end of the day I do think that if the Saints win the game 5 times Brees wins the MVP 4 of them. Thus i still like Brees plus 500 over Saints plus 200It's just so difficult to say this since the award is based on 1 game. In a best of 7 series, it's pretty safe to say that the cream will rise to the top, but in 1 game, a defensive play or a kick return alone can essentially win the award. Nobody in the world would have thought Tracy Porter would have had a shot to win the award last week (if it was awarded). 4 of the last 5 Super Bowl MVP's were pretty unexpected in hindsight. Looking at the list, since 2000, guys like Ray Lewis, Dexter Jackson, Deion Branch, Hines Ward, Eli Manning, and Santonio Holmes were all pretty improbable.I can't see many situations where the Saints win and Brees does not win MVP. I just wish the line was 2 like was projected before this weekend and not the 5.5 we are seeing now. I would have loved to hedge half of this off.Who would they have given the MVP to last night.....Brees still had 3TD and no INT, but yards and completion % were bad.
Still, getting 5:1 now, is very nice
In retrospect I guess I should've rephrased my statement to "I don't understand the huge swing to -5.5Maybe a tad jaded, but I really think the Saints matchup very well with Indy
culdeus
Footballguy
This 76ers one is getting sweaty.
lumpy19
Footballguy
I hope you're right, i'd love to see the saints win this. You know way more about the saints than i do, how do they cover, wayne, clark, collie, and garcon?
modogg
Footballguy
I'm on cuse -5.5tailed ya.
I had Cuse, St. Joe's and Western Carolina 
(sorry i do not have a clean sweep often, i do not mean to gloat)MarshallPlan
Footballguy
They don't. They have to hope for some turnovers like they have been all year. How many times have we heard take Wayne out of the game and you can stop them. Take Clark out of the game and you can stop them. Well, the Jets took both out of the game and still gave up 30 pts and nearly 400 yds to Manning. I will be on indy ml and saints + the points hoping to hit both. Yes, I do agree the line is not correct and books want even action. Still, betting against Manning and this offense is a nightmare like Sonny said.
I don't think the Saints matchup well at all with the Colts. I would much rather have a power running team that can control the line of scrimmage. The Viks, Cowboys, Dolphins all matchup better. The Colts have a very fast defense, but not very strong at stopping the run. I would rather line up AP and run him 30 times against the Colts. The Dolphins had a perfect gameplan in week 4 or whatever week it was. And they still lost.
The Ravens hardly blitzed, sat back and gave Manning a lot of underneath stuff - they lost. The Jets came after him nearly every play, played straight man to man, gave up some big plays and lost. I think the right combo lies in between and the good thing is that I think it's what the Saints do. They will blitz their fair share, but they can't every down like the Jets did.
Otis
Footballguy
WOW. Seriously????That Colts game was huge for me. Boy, before Manning got that TD late in the first half, I was getting frustrated. Between that failed (dumb) QB sneak at the 1, and that long Braylon (he actually caught the ball) TD, everything seemed to go the other way. And that fumble...ugh. Talk about not wanting to be around people, I almost left the bar to just watch it at home. By the end of the day though, I was Mr. Social.
I have had real conviction on the Super Bowls of late, and thankfully been right, but not this one. I'll likely be taking the points, but you can never feel that confident going against Manning. It's like you're holding your breath the entire time...
modogg
Footballguy
you have some good points MP, but how will they stop the Saints offense? That secondary is still missing some pieces for the Colts I believe, i do not see them being able to cover Colston regularly. It will be Plaxico (pre-gun charges) when he played the Eagles and they would simply throw the ball in the air and Plax could just reach in the air and grab it. I also think Pierre Thomas looked very good yesterday against the vikings D-line, and having him in the mix will be another element Indy will struggle to hold down. Brackett should be healthy which will help, but the Saints have more weapons on offense then the Colts can defend. Not saying i have a particularly strong opinion regarding who wins this game either way, but the Saints offense matches up well against the Colts defense, i think.
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Absolutely, both offenses will be tough to stop, that's why the total is 56
The Colts play cover 2 though so Colston will not be in many jump ball situations. I think the Viks would matchup better with this particular Colts defense, but yes Thomas did look very good. They are going to need to mix up him and some Reggie draws and screens to stop the speed of Mathis and Freeney.MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Made my first donkey play. Saints first penalty -115. I mistakenly looked at just offensive penalties and the Colts are first in the league 15 less then the Saints. Didn't know that it was just offensive penalties.
Agreed.......they put pressure on Manning b/c they don't have to worry about the run, and hope for a few turnovers.Thinking there will be a steady dose of screens to Bush and thomas this game
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
The reason why screens don't typically work against the Colts is that they only rush 4 and they play zone. Very tough to run effective screen plays against them. But you have to try to run them against the pass rushers.
Anybody have 2 pt conversion stats? More importantly, how many attempts there has been this year?
Anybody have 2 pt conversion stats? More importantly, how many attempts there has been this year?
bmj87
Footballguy
May be some weird rounding errors, but I'm seeing 24 conversions, 56 attempts this year:http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/two-p...tempts-per-game
ETA: In fact, I'm sure there are some rounding errors ... Pro-football-reference had 24 conversions, so that's right ... attempts are questionable.
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MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Thanks, I was using that as a reference guide but didn't compute it out. So out of 256 games we had 56 attempts or about 1 every 5 gms. Plus, it may be more like 1 of 6 gms because in some games we could get more then one attempt as teams chase pts. To be safe, I would say -300 would be a good bet on no attempt, but I bet -240 last year. Higher total, more of a chance we get a 2 pt conversion too.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Another one I bet at greek was -200 first fd a pass. Saints about -200 on this, but Colts up near -300 as nearly 3 out of every 4 fds are via the pass. I thought this should be -230 or so.
Now that the regular-season games are over, football fans finally know which two teams will be squaring off for the championship on February 7. The New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts, however, aren't the only folks getting ready for the Super Bowl.The Who revealed plans for their Super Bowl set list on Monday (January 25), stitching together a tapestry of classic hits that will fuel a high-profile halftime show from the legendary rockers.Speaking with Billboard.com, Pete Townshend explained that the band's halftime show will feature a "compact medley" of their greatest hits, most of which debuted five decades ago."We're kinda doing a mash-up of stuff," he said. "A bit of 'Baba O'Riley,' a bit of 'Pinball Wizard,' a bit of the close of 'Tommy,' a bit of 'Who Are You,' and a bit of 'Won't Get Fooled Again.' "The band will segue from one hard-rocking song into another, attempting to appeal to their older base while also keeping younger folks entertained with the high-energy, hooks-only song sampling. "It works — it's quite a saga," Tonwshend told the music site. "A lot of the stuff that we do has that kind of celebratory vibe about it — we've always tried to make music that allows the audience to go a bit wild if they want to. Hopefully it will hit the spot."The Who's Super Bowl set was conceived by lead singer Roger Daltrey, Townshend's brother Simon, executive producer Ricky Kirschner and director Hamish Hamilton. In recent years, artists such as Bruce Springsteen and Prince both similarly employed the medley approach to reach deep into their back catalog and create a set list of nothing but the classics.The Who are the latest high-profile band to book the annual music-industry tradition, following in the footsteps of such recent halftime performers as U2, Tom Petty, Paul McCartney and the Rolling Stones. With the Colts and the Saints squaring off for the title, Super Bowl XLIV will be played Sunday, February 7, at Sun Life Stadium in Miami.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
WOW. Seriously????That Colts game was huge for me. Boy, before Manning got that TD late in the first half, I was getting frustrated. Between that failed (dumb) QB sneak at the 1, and that long Braylon (he actually caught the ball) TD, everything seemed to go the other way. And that fumble...ugh. Talk about not wanting to be around people, I almost left the bar to just watch it at home. By the end of the day though, I was Mr. Social.
I have had real conviction on the Super Bowls of late, and thankfully been right, but not this one. I'll likely be taking the points, but you can never feel that confident going against Manning. It's like you're holding your breath the entire time...
Not sure if you're serious or what, but yes, I'm leaning Saints right now.MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Something CRAZY I just found out. In their 17 games, I threw out the Buffalo game, the Colts have had a scoreless quarter in 8 of their 17 games. Saints in just 5 of their 18 games.
I'm not too excited to bet scoreless quarter between these two teams though.
I'm not too excited to bet scoreless quarter between these two teams though.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I should add. Pats/giants game from 2 yrs ago the total was 54. The line on a scoreless quarter was +290 for the yes - and yes it did win. -350 for the no. You can make a case with a line of -13 that a scoreless quarter in that game would happen more often in that game then in this one though.
lumpy19
Footballguy
They have a fast D on turf....Super Bowl is played on natural grass, somewhat handicaps their defensive speed. I'll also disagree with the second point of that sentence. They did just fine against the NYJ rushing attack and it's not like the Jets were playing from behind, the game was close and the jets had a lead for 2+ quarters. With their offense they played with the lead a lot meaning other teams had to throw the ball alot. Over the season NO's D actually ranked better than Indy's FO DVOAOf course looking at that link the Jets were by far the best D in the league this year and manning shredded them.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Good points lumpy about the Colts D. They have been good against the run in the playoffs against two very good rushing teams.
One thing you have to like if you lean Colts. Strength of schedule looks to be even but not to me. Saints played in a downright bad division and were gifted 6 wins. AFC east not so easy. Plus the Saints got the Eagles without McNabb in Kolb's first game. Then, the Saints got AZ in a short week off a long and emotional game.
One thing you have to like if you lean Colts. Strength of schedule looks to be even but not to me. Saints played in a downright bad division and were gifted 6 wins. AFC east not so easy. Plus the Saints got the Eagles without McNabb in Kolb's first game. Then, the Saints got AZ in a short week off a long and emotional game.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Stolen from another gambling forum
Rain would make a bet on the saints
lumpy19
Footballguy
Weather in Miami for the last 9 miami superbowlsStolen from another gambling forum
Rain would make a bet on the saints
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
But why bet the Saints? Were you being sarcastic?Weather in Miami for the last 9 miami superbowlsStolen from another gambling forum
Rain would make a bet on the saints
lumpy19
Footballguy
almost a week into my little test period at thegreek, just tallied up my numbersWagered on props - 118 unitsResults +17 unitsWagerd on sides/totals - 176 unitsResults -11units3 more bets on sides than totals at this point. Gotta hope this is exactly what they were looking for, giving back some of my props profit on sides. I can't lose those props!!I love looking at numbers like this, I wish I had an easy way of tracking every wager I make so I could find the holes.This is why I
culdeus
Footballguy
This looks tailor made for some sort of SQL application. Probably not even remotely worth the effort. Hand entering into a tabluar format should be just as good but data entry intensive.almost a week into my little test period at thegreek, just tallied up my numbersWagered on props - 118 unitsResults +17 unitsWagerd on sides/totals - 176 unitsResults -11units3 more bets on sides than totals at this point. Gotta hope this is exactly what they were looking for, giving back some of my props profit on sides. I can't lose those props!!I love looking at numbers like this, I wish I had an easy way of tracking every wager I make so I could find the holes.This is why I
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
The quote function is not a mandatory thing.
modogg
Footballguy
Tuesday's Stress Relievers:
Kevin Martin o 19.5 pts -115 2u
Al Jefferson o 28.5 pts + reb -125
Stephen Curry o 23.5 pts + asst -115 3u
Here's to a happy ending
My man, pots and pans!!
lumpy19
Footballguy
I have a pretty ridiculous amount of money on curry/maggette tonight.....who else scores for GSW?Gonna be a fun game to watchTuesday's Stress Relievers:Kevin Martin o 19.5 pts -115 2uAl Jefferson o 28.5 pts + reb -125Stephen Curry o 23.5 pts + asst -115 3uHere's to a happy ending
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
At bodog, Wizards to score 1st +130.
SanAntonioHolmes
Footballguy
K-state +1.5 -105(1x)
NC State +1 -110(1x)
NC State +1 -110(1x)
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Anything good here?
Saints Alt Line +10½ (-220) o76½ (+650)
1002 Colts Alt Line -10½ (+170) u76½ (-1200)
06:25PM SUPERBOWL XLIV Alternate Line (CBS)
1003 Saints Alt Line -3½ (+260) o66½ (+250)
1004 Colts Alt Line +3½ (-360) u66½ (-350)
06:25PM SUPERBOWL XLIV Alternate Line (CBS)
1005 Saints Alt Line +14½ (-350) o61½ (+160)
1006 Colts Alt Line -14½ (+250) u61½ (-200)
06:25PM SUPERBOWL XLIV Alternate Line (CBS)
1007 Saints Alt Line -7½ (+500) o51½ (-200)
1008 Colts Alt Line +7½ (-800) u51½ (+160)
06:25PM SUPERBOWL XLIV Alternate Line (CBS)
1009 Saints Alt Line +17½ (-800) o46½ (-350)
1010 Colts Alt Line -17½ (+500) u46½ (+250)
06:25PM SUPERBOWL XLIV Alternate Line (CBS)
1011 Saints Alt Line -10½ (+675) o36½ (-1200)
1012 Colts Alt Line +10½ (-1300) u36½ (+650)
Saints Alt Line +10½ (-220) o76½ (+650)
1002 Colts Alt Line -10½ (+170) u76½ (-1200)
06:25PM SUPERBOWL XLIV Alternate Line (CBS)
1003 Saints Alt Line -3½ (+260) o66½ (+250)
1004 Colts Alt Line +3½ (-360) u66½ (-350)
06:25PM SUPERBOWL XLIV Alternate Line (CBS)
1005 Saints Alt Line +14½ (-350) o61½ (+160)
1006 Colts Alt Line -14½ (+250) u61½ (-200)
06:25PM SUPERBOWL XLIV Alternate Line (CBS)
1007 Saints Alt Line -7½ (+500) o51½ (-200)
1008 Colts Alt Line +7½ (-800) u51½ (+160)
06:25PM SUPERBOWL XLIV Alternate Line (CBS)
1009 Saints Alt Line +17½ (-800) o46½ (-350)
1010 Colts Alt Line -17½ (+500) u46½ (+250)
06:25PM SUPERBOWL XLIV Alternate Line (CBS)
1011 Saints Alt Line -10½ (+675) o36½ (-1200)
1012 Colts Alt Line +10½ (-1300) u36½ (+650)
lumpy19
Footballguy
Wow...Maggette is 0-14I have a pretty ridiculous amount of money on curry/maggette tonight.....who else scores for GSW?Gonna be a fun game to watchTuesday's Stress Relievers:Kevin Martin o 19.5 pts -115 2uAl Jefferson o 28.5 pts + reb -125Stephen Curry o 23.5 pts + asst -115 3uHere's to a happy ending
