FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (11 Viewers)

[tribecalledjeff]

pit -8.5chi +3atl -7no -8.5mia +5hou +3that's what i have so far for teasers, MIN will be a leg when the line pops back up and hopefully cle, was, SD all squeeze in

WAS qualifies at sportsbook

At the risk of lumpy kicking Uncle RN out of the family, I had to do some thinking on the no-think system today.I'm on board with all of these except two.Took Tampa Bay +5 instead of Washington +7. My "gut feels" have to trump a numbers system, or else why even bother watching the games and having an opinion? Tampa is the better team. They have the better offense. They have the better defense. They have more to play for, and Blount is going to run all over the Skins. The Bucs have a soft run D, but I don't think the Skins are equipped to exploit it. It basically comes down to which team is more likely to win by a TD, and I think the answer is clearly Tampa.Also took the Jets +1 instead of Miami +11. If you think the Jets have heart, which I do, they will bounce back from that embarrassment on national TV last week. The Fins losing by 2 TDs or the Jets losing the game outright..... what is more likely? The former, I believe. Miami is in a tough spot, facing the Jets after that epic and very public beat down.I will now put on my rain coat and goggles and will humbly accept any rocks and garbage you'd like to throw at me.

It's like you don't want to get better at this.

 

[Raider Nation]

pit -8.5chi +3atl -7no -8.5mia +5hou +3that's what i have so far for teasers, MIN will be a leg when the line pops back up and hopefully cle, was, SD all squeeze in

WAS qualifies at sportsbook

At the risk of lumpy kicking Uncle RN out of the family, I had to do some thinking on the no-think system today.I'm on board with all of these except two.Took Tampa Bay +5 instead of Washington +7. My "gut feels" have to trump a numbers system, or else why even bother watching the games and having an opinion? Tampa is the better team. They have the better offense. They have the better defense. They have more to play for, and Blount is going to run all over the Skins. The Bucs have a soft run D, but I don't think the Skins are equipped to exploit it. It basically comes down to which team is more likely to win by a TD, and I think the answer is clearly Tampa.Also took the Jets +1 instead of Miami +11. If you think the Jets have heart, which I do, they will bounce back from that embarrassment on national TV last week. The Fins losing by 2 TDs or the Jets losing the game outright..... what is more likely? The former, I believe. Miami is in a tough spot, facing the Jets after that epic and very public beat down.I will now put on my rain coat and goggles and will humbly accept any rocks and garbage you'd like to throw at me.

It's like you don't want to get better at this.

Serious question: why do you even enter this thread?You never post any plays and all you do is criticize.

 

[Angry Beavers]

4 plays on the early games:

CHI +3

Det +7

Car +7

Was +1

No time for a writeup - generally taking the dogs the public does not like

GLTA

 

[Man In The Box]

I don't think MIA or SEA are technically in the window, correct? I thought it only included teams that crossed both 3 and 7.

 

[Raider Nation]

I don't think MIA or SEA are technically in the window, correct? I thought it only included teams that crossed both 3 and 7.

Check with Jeff or his subscriber after the game.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

pit -8.5chi +3atl -7no -8.5mia +5hou +3that's what i have so far for teasers, MIN will be a leg when the line pops back up and hopefully cle, was, SD all squeeze in

WAS qualifies at sportsbook

At the risk of lumpy kicking Uncle RN out of the family, I had to do some thinking on the no-think system today.I'm on board with all of these except two.Took Tampa Bay +5 instead of Washington +7. My "gut feels" have to trump a numbers system, or else why even bother watching the games and having an opinion? Tampa is the better team. They have the better offense. They have the better defense. They have more to play for, and Blount is going to run all over the Skins. The Bucs have a soft run D, but I don't think the Skins are equipped to exploit it. It basically comes down to which team is more likely to win by a TD, and I think the answer is clearly Tampa.Also took the Jets +1 instead of Miami +11. If you think the Jets have heart, which I do, they will bounce back from that embarrassment on national TV last week. The Fins losing by 2 TDs or the Jets losing the game outright..... what is more likely? The former, I believe. Miami is in a tough spot, facing the Jets after that epic and very public beat down.I will now put on my rain coat and goggles and will humbly accept any rocks and garbage you'd like to throw at me.

It's like you don't want to get better at this.

Serious question: why do you even enter this thread?You never post any plays and all you do is criticize.

I've posted a ton of information, a link to a forum that a lot of people from here have joined, explained basic teaser strategy I think 3 or 4 times, I posted my bowl plays like 2 days ago, I posted all of my ncaaf plays for a couple weeks that did very well, I've discussed reasoning for some of my NFL picks that I know have kept people off of losers, I helped people to understand that the value of a 2nd string qb is basically nothing, .... I guess I just hope that someday you'll stop doing things like teasing through 0.

 

[optionmaven]

Jingle Bells, Belichick smells, Patriots laid an egg. Bears and under for me.

 

[lumpy19]

What is the difference between MIA +5 and SEA +5?

Nothing, i like miami today so i included them in my teasers

Doesn't your "no-think" teaser system include EVERY team that falls into the window? When did it become just the teams you like?

It's not my no think teaser system i play all legs that cross 3 and 7 and I usually add in some others that I feel are strong plays.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Let's talk afternoon games sickos...

Still love Seattle, think they win.

Also like the Bears. In a game I would normally be all about fading the overrated Bears, I think they catch New England the perfect week, at home, with their D playing inspired. Just one of those games NE loses.

And might get STL at 10 here soon...

 

[TheGooRoo]

Here is the NFL card, sweat it with us

ne/chi:

Branch u 64.5 yds -115

Brady u 269.5 yds -115 2u

Brady u 21.5 comp -115

Welker u 6.5 rec -115

Hernandez u 40.5 yds -115

Gould u 7 pts -130

Urlacher o 7.5 t+a -140

Knox u 66.5 yds -115

Cutler u 242.5 yds -115

Cutler u 19 comp -115

Graham u 7.5 pts -130

NE/Chi 29-35 pts scored +700 (.5u)

Moreno (den) o 77.5 yds -115

Lance Moore (no) u 5 rec -125

Best (det) u 82.5 r+r -115

Manningham (nyg) u 58.5 yds -115

Mayo (NE) u 11.5 t+a -115

Troy Smith (sf) u 195.5 yds -115

Stokley (sea) o 3.5 rec -130

Deon Butler (sea) o 3 rec +100

Good luck all!!!!!

 

[ODoyleRules]

First IND loses by 1 on last play of game and today TB play loses by 1 pt on last play of game. Double turds.

 

[Clorox]

I got a fevah...and the only prescription...is more wind.

 

[Scruff Mcgruff]

**** YOU PACKERS!!!!!

 

[Jambi]

30 units on the Pats/Bears under @ 37 is looking like my play of the week.

 

[Clorox]

Here is the NFL card, sweat it with us

Gould u 7 pts -130

Urlacher o 7.5 t+a -140

Graham u 7.5 pts -130

Mayo (NE) u 11.5 t+a -115

Dear Bill Bellichick,Those of us who got cut at Sportsbook were unable to get these plays and they will most likely go 4-0. Please stop throwing the ball now that you are up 14-0 21-0. Sammy Morris needs some love. Hell, throw Fred Taylor, Kevin Faulk, or even Laurence Maroney in there if you really want to shake things up. Thanks for your consideration.

Yours truly,

Clorox

 

[The Man With No Name]

30 units on the Pats/Bears under @ 37 is looking like my play of the week.

Not looking too good right now

 

[Jambi]

30 units on the Pats/Bears under @ 37 is looking like my play of the week.

Not looking too good right now

 

[D-BO]

**** YOU PACKERS!!!!!

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Didn't lose one in the morning and yet not gonna win one in the afternoon. It's almost a relief they are so ugly/over...I can forget about it and get ready for a party tonight. Since I'm outta here, my last play is the Eagles tonight. BIG.

Just also took Broncos at half -3.

 

[John Bender]

Seattle bet was a travesty. Was running well coming off the morning games but that ####ed up my day. I really liked that too. Crazy that 49ers are doing this to them.

We move on.

Dallas +4 tonight.

 

[lumpy19]

eagles -2.5 -145, i've found a site that isn't pricing buying across the 3 properly...gonna take advantage as much as possible with games lined at -3.5

-2.5 is -164 at pinnacle

 

[Raider Nation]

It is literally unbelievable that the Bears, +10, at home, in these conditions, have absolutely no shot.

 

[El Greco]

Roman Harper getting chased down in the 60-yard dash by Sam Bradford is so much more acceptable after seeing Harper's gray hair.

 

[Man In The Box]

Taking a shot on Celek UN 41.5 rec yds (even) at SB. Eagles have some OL issues and I expect Celek to be blocking a bit more than usual tonight.

 

[D-BO]

Eagles -4 and Over 51.

 

[Romulan]

I took (which team will have the longest td - Phili) Think I got Phili for only -120

 

[The Ref]

Took a stab at a Felix Jones First TD $20 to win $200.

I also laid off the end of a three way parlay with the eagles money line that pays $140 with a $140 bet on the Giants +5.

Eagles 3 point win please....

 

[modogg]

First IND loses by 1 on last play of game and today TB play loses by 1 pt on last play of game. Double turds.

You can also add Freeman fumbling on 1st and goal from the 1 in the 4th Q, and the Skins getting 5 downs (because some old man side judge fell asleep holding his sign) to score that TD in the last play of the game. 2 of my bigger plays for the week too, need to figure out what happened to piss off the Gambling Gods

 

[Raider Nation]

eagles -2.5 -145, i've found a site that isn't pricing buying across the 3 properly...gonna take advantage as much as possible with games lined at -3.5

Is this just NFL pricing or something? The reason I ask is, at the Greek if you try to buy Ohio State from 3½ to 2½ in the Sugar Bowl, it costs only -140.

 

[MarshallPlan]

eagles -2.5 -145, i've found a site that isn't pricing buying across the 3 properly...gonna take advantage as much as possible with games lined at -3.5

Is this just NFL pricing or something? The reason I ask is, at the Greek if you try to buy Ohio State from 3½ to 2½ in the Sugar Bowl, it costs only -140.

Yes, the nfl "3" is worth much more then the college 3 for obvious reasons. One being the OT rules.

 

[The Ref]

First IND loses by 1 on last play of game and today TB play loses by 1 pt on last play of game. Double turds.

You can also add Freeman fumbling on 1st and goal from the 1 in the 4th Q, and the Skins getting 5 downs (because some old man side judge fell asleep holding his sign) to score that TD in the last play of the game. 2 of my bigger plays for the week too, need to figure out what happened to piss off the Gambling Gods

Check the front page of Yahoo....I hear you loud and clear on the Freeman thing, but they didn't get 5 downs. It was just the 3 anouncers being clueless along with everyone back in the truck.

 

[modogg]

First IND loses by 1 on last play of game and today TB play loses by 1 pt on last play of game. Double turds.

You can also add Freeman fumbling on 1st and goal from the 1 in the 4th Q, and the Skins getting 5 downs (because some old man side judge fell asleep holding his sign) to score that TD in the last play of the game. 2 of my bigger plays for the week too, need to figure out what happened to piss off the Gambling Gods

Check the front page of Yahoo....I hear you loud and clear on the Freeman thing, but they didn't get 5 downs. It was just the 3 anouncers being clueless along with everyone back in the truck.

Well, I will feel better if that is the case. I was watching the highlights on the NFL network, and it looked like if anybody is to blame it should be the upstsairs review team because the first play went for 9 yards, not 10. They had the ball at the 12, and Armstrong looked to be down before the 2 and the ref spotted it at the 2.5 yard line. Either way, it will give something for people to discuss all week, and It is what it is

 

[Raider Nation]

eagles -2.5 -145, i've found a site that isn't pricing buying across the 3 properly...gonna take advantage as much as possible with games lined at -3.5

Is this just NFL pricing or something? The reason I ask is, at the Greek if you try to buy Ohio State from 3½ to 2½ in the Sugar Bowl, it costs only -140.

Yes, the nfl "3" is worth much more then the college 3 for obvious reasons. One being the OT rules.

Good to know. I don't make a habit of buying points. Maybe I should.

 

[lumpy19]

eagles -2.5 -145, i've found a site that isn't pricing buying across the 3 properly...gonna take advantage as much as possible with games lined at -3.5

Is this just NFL pricing or something? The reason I ask is, at the Greek if you try to buy Ohio State from 3½ to 2½ in the Sugar Bowl, it costs only -140.

Yes, the nfl "3" is worth much more then the college 3 for obvious reasons. One being the OT rules.

I've had accounts at 40+ online sites and i've never come across a site that has pricing off on the NFL 3. I always check the 3 and the 7 at every site i'm on. This particular site is correct when going from -3.5 to -3 but if you jump over to -2.5 its wrong. First I wonder how long it'll last and second I wonder if I'll get paid It's not the most reputable site in the world

 

[lumpy19]

eagles -2.5 -145, i've found a site that isn't pricing buying across the 3 properly...gonna take advantage as much as possible with games lined at -3.5

Is this just NFL pricing or something? The reason I ask is, at the Greek if you try to buy Ohio State from 3½ to 2½ in the Sugar Bowl, it costs only -140.

Yes, the nfl "3" is worth much more then the college 3 for obvious reasons. One being the OT rules.

Good to know. I don't make a habit of buying points. Maybe I should.

In college i always get from 2.5 to 3, 6.5 to 7 when i'm playing dogs

 

[MarshallPlan]

eagles -2.5 -145, i've found a site that isn't pricing buying across the 3 properly...gonna take advantage as much as possible with games lined at -3.5

Is this just NFL pricing or something? The reason I ask is, at the Greek if you try to buy Ohio State from 3½ to 2½ in the Sugar Bowl, it costs only -140.

Yes, the nfl "3" is worth much more then the college 3 for obvious reasons. One being the OT rules.

I've had accounts at 40+ online sites and i've never come across a site that has pricing off on the NFL 3. I always check the 3 and the 7 at every site i'm on. This particular site is correct when going from -3.5 to -3 but if you jump over to -2.5 its wrong. First I wonder how long it'll last and second I wonder if I'll get paid It's not the most reputable site in the world

I have a site that lets me buy on and off it for 15 cents. Needless to say I buy everything through 3 in the nfl.

 

[Raider Nation]

Anybody think there's value in the AFC -160 to win the Super Bowl? The way the Pats are playing, that number might be hard to find in a few weeks.

And if Philly gets knocked off in the NFC playoffs, the Pats will be sizable favorites (assuming THEY make it to the SB, of course).

 

[The Ref]

Anybody think there's value in the AFC -160 to win the Super Bowl? The way the Pats are playing, that number might be hard to find in a few weeks.And if Philly gets knocked off in the NFC playoffs, the Pats will be sizable favorites (assuming THEY make it to the SB, of course).

I like that. sportsbook has AFC -3 FWTIW and I like that as well. Non Patriots vs eagles is the only situation where I think AFC -3 will be bad value.

 

[The Ref]

Took a stab at a Felix Jones First TD $20 to win $200.

I also laid off the end of a three way parlay with the eagles money line that pays $140 with a $140 bet on the Giants +5.

Eagles 3 point win please....

Hey diddle diddle - look who ended up in the middle....

 

[lumpy19]

giants for me tonight and hou +9 to finish out my teasers

 

[Cliff Clavin]

giants for me tonight and hou +9 to finish out my teasers

I have Houston +9 to finish off 3 different teasers

 

[Scruff Mcgruff]

Money line parlay

Baltimore

NY Giants

too much on the line for these teams to lose. tempting taking the points but after that Colts game and how much I lost, I am staying away.

 

[TheWick]

giants for me tonight and hou +9 to finish out my teasers

I have 4 teasers with HOU +9 left....in situations like this do you hedge a little? I didn't put big money on them anyway, but just wondering. Thanks for sharing your teams on these...makes it easy on the rest of us

 

[lumpy19]

giants for me tonight and hou +9 to finish out my teasers

I have 4 teasers with HOU +9 left....in situations like this do you hedge a little? I didn't put big money on them anyway, but just wondering. Thanks for sharing your teams on these...makes it easy on the rest of us

I like houston tonight, enough that I'll be rolling them into the teasers for next weeks games

 

[Man In The Box]

giants for me tonight and hou +9 to finish out my teasers

I have 4 teasers with HOU +9 left....in situations like this do you hedge a little? I didn't put big money on them anyway, but just wondering. Thanks for sharing your teams on these...makes it easy on the rest of us

I like houston tonight, enough that I'll be rolling them into the teasers for next weeks games

Me too. Already have them with SD on Thursday. Contemplating ARZ at the moment.

 

[Scruff Mcgruff]

giants for me tonight and hou +9 to finish out my teasers

I have 4 teasers with HOU +9 left....in situations like this do you hedge a little? I didn't put big money on them anyway, but just wondering. Thanks for sharing your teams on these...makes it easy on the rest of us

I like houston tonight, enough that I'll be rolling them into the teasers for next weeks games

Me too. Already have them with SD on Thursday. Contemplating ARZ at the moment.

I feel like the Ravens will be angry after losing to the Steelers at home. Could see the score being something like 24-14 ravens. for your sake i hope i am wrong

 

[nittanylion]

Free Analysis from Dr Bob, if it helps anyone making a decision about MNF...

http://www.drbobsports.com/index.cfm

HOUSTON 24 Baltimore (-3.0) 21Share Baltimore vs. Houston Analysis On Facebook

Over/Under Total: 46.0

05:30 PM Pacific Time, Monday, 13-Dec-2010

I’m not going to try to make an argument about line value because my math model favors Baltimore by 4 ½ points in this game. However, the situations are very strongly in favor of the Texans in this game. Houston applies to a very strong 164-77-6 ATS late season situation that is 21-5-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and that angle is 24-5 ATS when applying to a Monday night home underdog (those teams are 21-8 straight up). Baltimore comes into this game after losing last Sunday night to the Steelers, but don’t expect them to play well simply because they lost last week. Monday night road teams with winning records that are coming off a loss the previous week are actually just 21-45-1 ATS, including 2-16 ATS as a road favorite of less than 7 points. Houston also applies to a 115-52-4 ATS Monday night angle that won with the Patriots last week. Good offensive teams usually make for good bets as home underdogs, as home dogs that average 360 total yards of offense or more are 67-39-1 ATS, and I expect the Texans to give a great effort with their season on the line. The lack of line value will keep me from making The Texans a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more (at -120 odds or better).

Personally, I'm playing a 7-Point Teaser: Texans +10 / NYGiants +3.

I like the angle of getting a Houston Team that absolutely NEEDS to win getting 10 at home vs traveling Ravens Team who's Offense has yet to score over 21 points in a road game this year (Defense got them to over 21 vs the Panthers), coupled with the Giants/Vikes game moving to a venue (Detroit), which is far from neutral - I like a better overall Team getting points in a more favorable environment here.

Good Luck, fellas!

 

[Raider Nation]

Dr. Bob is crossing zero?

 

[lumpy19]

Dr. Bob is crossing zero?

I hope he keeps selling crap like that, books need to make money so I can keep making money.Crosses 0 AND lands on THE key # instead of getting past it <_<

 

[Raider Nation]

Dr. Bob is crossing zero?

I hope he keeps selling crap like that, books need to make money so I can keep making money.Crosses 0 AND lands on THE key # instead of getting past it

Right? It's almost like looking at one of my bets.