Gronkowski and Graham (1 Viewer)

[tikitime]

Gronkowski and Graham, in a typical league have double, if not more than double the points of the average TE, or about 6 non-PPR points a game (roughly). Is this year an anamoly?

I don't expect Gronkowski to get 17 TDs next year, but he is the No. 1 RZ target for a passing team, and has scored double digit TDs two years running, and is a stud. Graham could very possibly duplicate his numbers though with another year of Brees, (on pace for 1400 and 12).

Based on strict VBD principles could an argument be made that they should be 2nd round picks, dare I even say late 1st? OR, do we view this year as a non-repeatble outlier, and that these players should go in the 4th round where the "best TE" was typically drafted?

 

[fred_1_15301]

Gronkowski and Graham, in a typical league have double, if not more than double the points of the average TE, or about 6 non-PPR points a game (roughly). Is this year an anamoly? I don't expect Gronkowski to get 17 TDs next year, but he is the No. 1 RZ target for a passing team, and has scored double digit TDs two years running, and is a stud. Graham could very possibly duplicate his numbers though with another year of Brees, (on pace for 1400 and 12).Based on strict VBD principles could an argument be made that they should be 2nd round picks, dare I even say late 1st? OR, do we view this year as a non-repeatble outlier, and that these players should go in the 4th round where the "best TE" was typically drafted?

Neither of those 2 guys will sniff the 4th round. I'd imagine that both will go no later than 2nd round in a 12 team league.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Depends on your league if you could flex a TE than I'd move on either one of them in the 3rd and 4th round of a 10 teamer.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

Gronk will go in the 2nd. Graham will go in the 3rd.

 

[tikitime]

Depends on your league if you could flex a TE than I'd move on either one of them in the 3rd and 4th round of a 10 teamer.

Why would that matter?

 

[eNdblu]

I would consider taking either of them late 2nd early 3rd round...

Knowing the league I compete in yearly, the second one of the top TEs gets drafted, it's a domino effect to try and get a good TE and 3-4 get drafted in a row

 

[Hoosier16]

Gronk will go in the 2nd. Graham will go in the 3rd.

I would think they would go the other way, with Graham going first. Justified or not, I think people will always perceive Hernandez to be a threat to Gronk's production.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

It's just such an advantage at the TE position. Depending on your league its a 5-10 point difference per week over any other TE. Thats a few wins per season usually. I dont know where I will take them next year, but I certainly wont let them slip past round 3

 

[steelwind]

Both will go round 2. They will produce stats like WR1.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Only concern is do either team address the wr position. And TE's have trouble repeating for some reason.

They have been so dominate that I consider them #1 WR now. They give you such a advantage over other teams.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

Gronk will go in the 2nd. Graham will go in the 3rd.

I would think they would go the other way, with Graham going first. Justified or not, I think people will always perceive Hernandez to be a threat to Gronk's production.

I disagree, Gronk will have more points this year than Graham and most people will base their picks according to that.

 

[fightingillini]

If you want Gronkowski or Graham, you better be willing to spend a 3rd round pick on them. Maybe even a late 2nd. Pretty steep price. They're heads and shoulders above the rest of the TEs but you will be behind at other positions. Will make for some interesting decisions at draft time.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Depends on your league if you could flex a TE than I'd move on either one of them in the 3rd and 4th round of a 10 teamer.

Why would that matter?

Well I dunno about you but if I could start both of them I would (mandatory TE and a Flex TE). So far this year on a week to week basis they have been more dominant than any other WR this year.

 

[Instinctive]

Everybody saying they go in the 2nd or 3rd round is insane... It's the epitome of overreacting here - even Gates in his prime, head and shoulders above all other TEs, didn' go that early. Maybe they go late 3rd because somebody loves one of them and knows he has to reach because he's at the end, but other than that, there's no way that in a standard nonPPR or standard PPR league two TEs are taken by the end of round 2...

Now, allow them to b flexed and give 1.5 or 2 ppr and things change, but I think most of the discussion here is directed at standard formats. And it's crazy.

ETA: not that they aren't necessarily worth a 3rd - I would definitely have them near the top of my board there. It's just that people still view TE differently than other positions...chances are they last

 

[Concept Coop]

I think they are more valuable next season than guys like Nicks and Fitz. I don't think the will be around in round 3.

I Like Graham more and would consider him in the early 2nd. There are only a few WR I would take before him; Welker and Calvin off the top of my head.

 

[ShaHBucks]

In my league they would rank as the Number 2 and 4 wr at this point. We're talking about gates and gonz in their prime.

 

[Instinctive]

In my league they would rank as the Number 2 and 4 wr at this point. We're talking about gates and gonz in their prime.

And where were they drafted each year?

 

[FantasyTrader]

Nothing more than a gut feeling, but drafting Gronkowski in the second round next year will be an unmitigated disaster.

 

[Concept Coop]

Everybody saying they go in the 2nd or 3rd round is insane... It's the epitome of overreacting here - even Gates in his prime, head and shoulders above all other TEs, didn' go that early.

Gates went that early in a lot of the re-drafts I have done over the years.And don't look now, but Graham and Gronk are besting some of those Gates years.I think they are both easily in the top 12-14 players this season. They could experience reasonable dips and still be worth a 2nd or 3rd rounder in most PPR formats. Gronk could drop if some of those TDs go elsewhere, but I see no reason to predict a major setback for Graham. NO has zero incentive to use him differently.

 

[Instinctive]

Nothing more than a gut feeling, but drafting Gronkowski in the second round next year will be an unmitigated disaster.

If I'm going to pull the trigger early, it's going to be on Graham. Gronk is super talented, and something is there to be said for being a red zone target like he is, but yardage is a better indicator of future performance, IMO.

 

[otis68]

Is there any reason to believe their roles in their respective offenses will decrease? I can't think of one. In leagues with a TE position, they are late 1st round choices, and in leagues without one, mid 2nd.

 

[FF Ninja]

Neither of those 2 guys will sniff the 4th round. I'd imagine that both will go no later than 2nd round in a 12 team league.

I don't think the OP is asking where they will go, but more IF their ADPs will be justified. More simply put, these guys will be drafted in the 2nd round. Should we be the people drafting them or should we be enjoying the value that is falling to us because these guys are going so early?I feel like I'll need to look at this a little closer. Preliminarily, I just don't quite feel like I can trust Brees to feed Jimmy Graham next year like he is this year. The Saints are throwing the ball over 40 times a game, possibly in an effort to get Brees the record. If Ingram improves next year (and I think he will - no I don't own him this year), there could be a regression in the passing game and Brees spreads it around so much that I don't think we can expect Graham to maintain his numbers despite being the #1 target.Similarly, the Pats have an atrocious defense this year and next year we could see quite a bit more of Ridley and Vereen who are almost certainly going to be more effective than BJGE. If the running game is better and the defense is less awful, then we could see a dip in passing statistics.But it is hard to argue with Gronk. I'd feel pretty comfortable taking him in the 2nd. Not so comfortable with Jimmy Graham. Right now they are both performing like top 5 WRs and top 5 WRs go in the 2nd round. Given their advantage over the other TEs, I'd say if you feel confident next year will be 80% as productive for Gronk or 90% as productive for Graham then a 2nd round draft pick is absolutely justified.In non-ppr, Gronk has a 14.95 ppg average, Graham 12.92, Tony G 9.68, Gates 9.66, Witten 8.73. Finley the Great is 8th at 8.00 ppg. To further put that in perspective, Gronk is 7th in ppg out of all WR/RB/TE if you don't count Britt or Kevin Smith. If you reduce that to 80%, you get 11.96 ppg, which would put him 24th including Britt, Smith, and Best. Arian Foster is averaging 20.06 ppg. McCoy is 19.56, Rice 18.48, AP 17.20. Walk DMC is RB6 with 14.97. Given these numbers, it would not be unreasonable if someone took Gronk in the mid-1st round given that he is less likely to be injured than a running back. Sounds like crazy talk as I type it, but numbers don't lie. Let's see how the season plays out. If he maintains 15ppg then it would be hard to argue against taking him in the 1st.

 

[Instinctive]

Everybody saying they go in the 2nd or 3rd round is insane... It's the epitome of overreacting here - even Gates in his prime, head and shoulders above all other TEs, didn' go that early.

Gates went that early in a lot of the re-drafts I have done over the years.And don't look now, but Graham and Gronk are besting some of those Gates years.I think they are both easily in the top 12-14 players this season. They could experience reasonable dips and still be worth a 2nd or 3rd rounder in most PPR formats. Gronk could drop if some of those TDs go elsewhere, but I see no reason to predict a major setback for Graham. NO has zero incentive to use him differently.

1. Are they besting those years on pure points or on a VBD basis? Important distinction (and I'm nto leading here, I haven't looked).2. Whether they should go in the 3rd was not the question. Whether they WOULD go there was the question. I'd bet $100 on every single draft done that both are still there in the third round and I'd come out far ahead. People saying both guys go in the 2nd round are clearly overreacting. I think Gates and (to a lesser extent) Gonzalez in their primes went in the 4th. So maybe with the adjusting of the game and people becoming smarter about it, and looking at VBD principles now at most levels of play, late 3rd round is possible, but still unlikely in my mind. I guess we'll see next year, huh?And I certainly don't think I would take Gronk there. Graham's yardage is gonna be a lot more reliable than Gronk's TDs.

 

[Khy]

They are producing better than Gates and Gonzo in there prime. Gates best season was 2005 where he put up 1100 yards and 10 TDs. That was through 15 games. So even seeing what Gronk and Graham are on pace for at 15 games.

Gronk: 1160yds 16TDs

Graham: 1307yds 10 TDs

They both have already produced through 12 games better than Antonio Gates EVER did through 16. With 4 games left to play. Sorry but because Gates was normally a early-mid 3rd round ADP doesn't mean that Graham and Gronk will be drafted there. I would 100% take Graham mid to late 2nd round. Short of someone else falling way to far why wouldn't you? I'm also in the boat where I'd rather have Graham over Gronk simply because Graham has a little more consistency. Graham had one bad game all season and it was to STL in a game where NO just got beat up. Gronk had two or three pretty bad games and the threat is always there for Hernandez to start stealing looks.

I think you'd be crazy not to draft them between 2.05 and 3.05...

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Nothing more than a gut feeling, but drafting Gronkowski in the second round next year will be an unmitigated disaster.

NE is the sort of team to keep feeding what is working - look at Welker last year to this year. If for any reason Hernandez becomes the go to guy (ie teams focusing on stopping Gronk and Welker) than you don't doubt that Brady feeds Hernandez.However Gronk is only in his 2nd year and his receiving numbers are up quite a bit. I'd say next year his floor is 800 yards and 10TD's.

 

[Zeff]

Belichick seems to be perfectly willing to completely reinvent that team every year. I wouldn't dream of overpaying for Gronk, even though hitting probably means a waltz to the playoffs.

With Graham, barring injury, I see very little spread between his ceiling and floor.

 

[Zeff]

Just to add: I won't be touching either next year at the expected price point.

 

[tikitime]

In my league they would rank as the Number 2 and 4 wr at this point. We're talking about gates and gonz in their prime.

And where were they drafted each year?

But this isn't Gates and Gonzo in their prime stats wise. Gates and Gonzo's best years were 10 - 11 points agame. Graham is at about 13 a game, and Gronk is at 15. Historically, these numbers probably make them the 1st and 2nd best seasons of all time, and unprecdented at the TE position. I looked back and saw Winslow once put up 1300 and 10, but that is the closest I have seen.

 

[Khy]

Atm in my league Gronk is ranked as the #1 TE and would also be the #1 WR if we combined the two. He is 9 points higher than Calvin for the season. Graham would fall in nice and comfy at #3 right behind Welker. So I guess a better question is would you draft Welker, Calvin, Greg Jennings etc. around that 2nd round slot? If so than why wouldn't you take Graham or Gronk? They produce like elite WR1's with more consistency.

 

[Instinctive]

They are producing better than Gates and Gonzo in there prime. Gates best season was 2005 where he put up 1100 yards and 10 TDs. That was through 15 games. So even seeing what Gronk and Graham are on pace for at 15 games.Gronk: 1160yds 16TDsGraham: 1307yds 10 TDsThey both have already produced through 12 games better than Antonio Gates EVER did through 16. With 4 games left to play. Sorry but because Gates was normally a early-mid 3rd round ADP doesn't mean that Graham and Gronk will be drafted there. I would 100% take Graham mid to late 2nd round. Short of someone else falling way to far why wouldn't you? I'm also in the boat where I'd rather have Graham over Gronk simply because Graham has a little more consistency. Graham had one bad game all season and it was to STL in a game where NO just got beat up. Gronk had two or three pretty bad games and the threat is always there for Hernandez to start stealing looks. I think you'd be crazy not to draft them between 2.05 and 3.05...

In my league they would rank as the Number 2 and 4 wr at this point. We're talking about gates and gonz in their prime.

And where were they drafted each year?

But this isn't Gates and Gonzo in their prime stats wise. Gates and Gonzo's best years were 10 - 11 points agame. Graham is at about 13 a game, and Gronk is at 15. Historically, these numbers probably make them the 1st and 2nd best seasons of all time, and unprecdented at the TE position. I looked back and saw Winslow once put up 1300 and 10, but that is the closest I have seen.

That doesn't matter if the 4th best TE season this year is one of the best 4th best TE seasons of all time too. Are they outscoring the other TEs by more than Gates and Gonzo did? That is what matters - NOT whether or not they are outscoring Gates and Gonzo.I don't think you guys get that this doesn't necessarily matter.I askd the question above: Are they outscoring the other TEs by more than Gates and Gonzo did? That is the crucial point here. It means nothing that they score 13-15 ppg if all the other TEs are scoring 8-10 ppg now...it is essentially the same value as when Gates scored 10-12 ppg and the other TEs scored 5-7 ppg. What matters is the gap between these two and other options, and my gut feeling, before I look at any data, is that the value isn't there. (I could be wrong. I just don't think it's there.)Gronk's not going to set the record for receiving TD by a TE again next year. And TDs are where his value comes from.Graham, on the other hand, I think is certainly reasonable in the 3rd. If you really want him, you gotta take him there, which will cause some reaches. But I think there's no way these guys are going in round 2. No way.ETA: It is entirely possible that the stats do say Graham and Gronk are outscoring other TEs by more than other top guys previously have. My gut feeling is simply that they aren't. If they are, then this becomes a lot more plausible. Another thing to remember is that what a guy is ranked as or doing this year does not mean he will do it again next year.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Sometimes I get the feeling Brady is just trying to set a record with Gronk. He only needs one more TD to set the single season record for a TE. 4 games, I doubt they make it to 23. Something to shoot for next year.

 

[LittlePhatty]

I can see them going late in Round 1, depending on the league. Round 2 definitely.

My main league is .5 PPR and currently only 2 WRs (Welker and Megatron) are out-scoring Gronk & Graham.

 

[jdubs952]

Graham in late 2nd, Gronk in 3rd in a 12 teamer that you can flex a TE. You'd have the market cornered and have a great flex and amazing trade bait for active leagues.

Imagine - QB, TE, TE (rodgers/cam, graham, gronk)

 

[tikitime]

They are producing better than Gates and Gonzo in there prime. Gates best season was 2005 where he put up 1100 yards and 10 TDs. That was through 15 games. So even seeing what Gronk and Graham are on pace for at 15 games.

Gronk: 1160yds 16TDs

Graham: 1307yds 10 TDs

They both have already produced through 12 games better than Antonio Gates EVER did through 16. With 4 games left to play. Sorry but because Gates was normally a early-mid 3rd round ADP doesn't mean that Graham and Gronk will be drafted there. I would 100% take Graham mid to late 2nd round. Short of someone else falling way to far why wouldn't you? I'm also in the boat where I'd rather have Graham over Gronk simply because Graham has a little more consistency. Graham had one bad game all season and it was to STL in a game where NO just got beat up. Gronk had two or three pretty bad games and the threat is always there for Hernandez to start stealing looks.

I think you'd be crazy not to draft them between 2.05 and 3.05...

In my league they would rank as the Number 2 and 4 wr at this point. We're talking about gates and gonz in their prime.

And where were they drafted each year?

But this isn't Gates and Gonzo in their prime stats wise. Gates and Gonzo's best years were 10 - 11 points agame. Graham is at about 13 a game, and Gronk is at 15. Historically, these numbers probably make them the 1st and 2nd best seasons of all time, and unprecdented at the TE position. I looked back and saw Winslow once put up 1300 and 10, but that is the closest I have seen.

That doesn't matter if the 4th best TE season this year is one of the best 4th best TE seasons of all time too. Are they outscoring the other TEs by more than Gates and Gonzo did? That is what matters - NOT whether or not they are outscoring Gates and Gonzo.I don't think you guys get that this doesn't necessarily matter.

I askd the question above: Are they outscoring the other TEs by more than Gates and Gonzo did? That is the crucial point here. It means nothing that they score 13-15 ppg if all the other TEs are scoring 8-10 ppg now...it is essentially the same value as when Gates scored 10-12 ppg and the other TEs scored 5-7 ppg. What matters is the gap between these two and other options, and my gut feeling, before I look at any data, is that the value isn't there. (I could be wrong. I just don't think it's there.)

Gronk's not going to set the record for receiving TD by a TE again next year. And TDs are where his value comes from.

Graham, on the other hand, I think is certainly reasonable in the 3rd. If you really want him, you gotta take him there, which will cause some reaches. But I think there's no way these guys are going in round 2. No way.

I agree with this, but as a rookie he scored 10 TDs. I'd say that 1200/12 for next year would be a reasonable course correction. If he put up that line, and I took him in the middle of the second round, I'd be very pleased, even if it cost me the chance to take WR4 in the middle of the 2nd round, for example. So if my choices were Gronk and AJ Green in rounds 2 and 3(hypothetical WR 8 - 10) vs. Jennings (hypothetical WR 4) and Witten (in the 4th or 5th), I'd take the first option without hesitation.

 

[ShaHBucks]

In my league they would rank as the Number 2 and 4 wr at this point. We're talking about gates and gonz in their prime.

And where were they drafted each year?

Usually top of the 3rd because some guy knows he has no shot in the late 4th. I don't think they ever rolled off the bored in the first round. It just may be time to think outside the box, I usually group TE/WR together so now the discussion is are they top 5 wide receivers in terms of rec/yards/td at this point? Do you see more than 10 receivers having a better season next year?

 

[Concept Coop]

Graham, on the other hand, I think is certainly reasonable in the 3rd. If you really want him, you gotta take him there, which will cause some reaches. But I think there's no way these guys are going in round 2. No way.ETA: It is entirely possible that the stats do say Graham and Gronk are outscoring other TEs by more than other top guys previously have. My gut feeling is simply that they aren't. If they are, then this becomes a lot more plausible. Another thing to remember is that what a guy is ranked as or doing this year does not mean he will do it again next year.

What WRs would you take ahead of them? Sure, in most league formats, RBs are a premium and will be drafted before these guys. But I am not touching Fitz, Nicks, Roddy, Green, Johnson, Bryant, et cetera before Graham.If you are in leagues with me, they will not last to round 3 (PPR, TE=flexable). Sure, just becuase they did it this year, doesn't mean they will next. But what is a better indicator of future production than the year at hand, in most cases. If you pass on Gronk and Graham in the 3rd, I think you are making a huge mistake.

 

[ShaHBucks]

In my league they would rank as the Number 2 and 4 wr at this point. We're talking about gates and gonz in their prime.

And where were they drafted each year?

But this isn't Gates and Gonzo in their prime stats wise. Gates and Gonzo's best years were 10 - 11 points agame. Graham is at about 13 a game, and Gronk is at 15. Historically, these numbers probably make them the 1st and 2nd best seasons of all time, and unprecdented at the TE position. I looked back and saw Winslow once put up 1300 and 10, but that is the closest I have seen.

Yea I know. They've already eclipsed last years #1 TE Jason Witten's season totals by week 13.

 

[Goldfinger007]

I haven't watched a lot of Saints games this year, so i can't really comment on Graham. I have seen every Pat game though and I'm just not getting why some of you don't expect Gronk to produce at the same level next year. I don't see this as being an anomaly for him. He's the WR1 on that team and definitely the #1 redzone target. He consistently beats doubles, is way too fast for LBs and way too big and strong for db's. Factor in Brady's accuracy and its just not fair. The truly scary part is he has noticeably gotten better as the year has progressed. He really is a freak. The only thing I see slowing him down is injury to either him or Brady, or perhaps a definitive degradation of the NE O'line. Otherwise, he very well may produce even better next year. He's the real deal!

 

[pq9090]

Atm in my league Gronk is ranked as the #1 TE and would also be the #1 WR if we combined the two. He is 9 points higher than Calvin for the season. Graham would fall in nice and comfy at #3 right behind Welker. So I guess a better question is would you draft Welker, Calvin, Greg Jennings etc. around that 2nd round slot? If so than why wouldn't you take Graham or Gronk? They produce like elite WR1's with more consistency.

You can't look at it on a pure points basis. The position they play and how many players in that position you can/have to start matter.

 

[Sweetness_34]

In the FBGPC where you can start up to 3 TEs and get 1.5 PPR for a TE, I will be shocked if either of them even get to the late 2nd round. If I have a late round pick, I might very well pick them both and then fill out rest of the roster.

 

[tikitime]

Atm in my league Gronk is ranked as the #1 TE and would also be the #1 WR if we combined the two. He is 9 points higher than Calvin for the season. Graham would fall in nice and comfy at #3 right behind Welker. So I guess a better question is would you draft Welker, Calvin, Greg Jennings etc. around that 2nd round slot? If so than why wouldn't you take Graham or Gronk? They produce like elite WR1's with more consistency.

You can't look at it on a pure points basis. The position they play and how many players in that position you can/have to start matter.

I guess what is the difference between WR1 and WR13 in a 10 team league with a flex vs. what is the differnce between TE1 and TE 6 with a flex. If Gronk or Graham repeat, I think this is close.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I really doubt that either of these guys are consistently targeted in the 2nd round. They are going to be next year what Gonzo and Gates used to be a few years ago. I think you’ll see them go in the mid to late 3rd round, probably back to back picks. But there are too many “must have” RB’s that people are going to fall for that allows these guys to drop. Also, there are several QB’s (Rodgers, Brees, Brady) that will fall into the second round…well maybe not Rodgers, that are going to push these TE’s to the 3rd round consistently in standard redrafts. If it’s a choice of one of the stud QB’s who also provide a significant advantage but are even more consistent, or one of these guys, I’m taking the stud QB, and crossing my fingers I can get one of these TE’s in the third. The tried and true recipe of roughly 18 RB’s, 8 WR’s and 3 QB’s taken before the first TE is gone is going to hold.

 

[Instinctive]

Atm in my league Gronk is ranked as the #1 TE and would also be the #1 WR if we combined the two. He is 9 points higher than Calvin for the season. Graham would fall in nice and comfy at #3 right behind Welker. So I guess a better question is would you draft Welker, Calvin, Greg Jennings etc. around that 2nd round slot? If so than why wouldn't you take Graham or Gronk? They produce like elite WR1's with more consistency.

You can't look at it on a pure points basis. The position they play and how many players in that position you can/have to start matter.

This is another great point. i can't believe I forgot to mention it.If you only start one TE, then your baseline for comparison is TE12.

My leagues go 3 wideouts...so Calvin is scoring VBD points against the WR36 in any given week. Hell yeah I' rather have a top WR like that than the #1 TE - I only start one TE!

If TE/WR is a combined position, or you can flex a TE, than things change. But not when your league starts three times as many WRs as TEs every week.

 

[Instinctive]

In the FBGPC where you can start up to 3 TEs and get 1.5 PPR for a TE, I will be shocked if either of them even get to the late 2nd round. If I have a late round pick, I might very well pick them both and then fill out rest of the roster.

I don't know about the other guys, but I have consistently said that flexing a TE or giving them additional PPR above what other positions get changes things enormously. In those FFPC leagues, TEs have always gone in the 1st and 2nd...I don't think that those rules apply to a majority of leagues though.

Atm in my league Gronk is ranked as the #1 TE and would also be the #1 WR if we combined the two. He is 9 points higher than Calvin for the season. Graham would fall in nice and comfy at #3 right behind Welker. So I guess a better question is would you draft Welker, Calvin, Greg Jennings etc. around that 2nd round slot? If so than why wouldn't you take Graham or Gronk? They produce like elite WR1's with more consistency.

You can't look at it on a pure points basis. The position they play and how many players in that position you can/have to start matter.

I guess what is the difference between WR1 and WR13 in a 10 team league with a flex vs. what is the differnce between TE1 and TE 6 with a flex. If Gronk or Graham repeat, I think this is close.

What makes you think that's the difference you look at? In a 10 team league, you'd be looking at TE1 vs TE10 and WR1 v WR20 or 30, I assume. (You start 2 or 3 wideouts and only 1 TE in this instance).If you add the flex, things get more complicated: you compare to all the available flex players, at the worst starter baseline (probably around "Flex Eligible 60" or so in a ten teamer)

 

[We Tigers]

Tough to say. People taking them in the 2nd or 3rd may not be thrilled even if they replicate these seasons. Part of why these guys are driving dominant fantasy teams this year is that they were both taken 7th round or later in every draft, making them monster values to the tune of 5th round Ray Rice or 4th round Foster in 2009 and 2010.

When I chase last year's stars, I feel like I always get burned. That said, these guys are in perfect situations, so...

 

[Concept Coop]

What makes you think that's the difference you look at? In a 10 team league, you'd be looking at TE1 vs TE10 and WR1 v WR20 or 30, I assume. (You start 2 or 3 wideouts and only 1 TE in this instance).If you add the flex, things get more complicated: you compare to all the available flex players, at the worst starter baseline (probably around "Flex Eligible 60" or so in a ten teamer)

Gronk has outscored the #12 TE by more than Calvin outscored WR32, by 10 points. If we add flex to the mix, Gronk has been the most valuable WT/TE.There are two more valuable RB, with no flex. If there is a flex - I don't want to do the math - I bet Gronk is the most valuable RB/WR/TE. If not, close to it, as there are only 2 RB who score more over replacement (12 for TE, 24 for RB).

 

[Concept Coop]

This year, Gronk > Calvin.

What changes next season? Both had amazing, career years.

 

[Good Old Boys]

That doesn't matter if the 4th best TE season this year is one of the best 4th best TE seasons of all time too. Are they outscoring the other TEs by more than Gates and Gonzo did? That is what matters - NOT whether or not they are outscoring Gates and Gonzo.

I looked at the stats all the way back to 2004 and there hasn't been as big of a separation at the top as there is this season. The closest was 2004:Gates 174

Gonzo 168

Witten 134

Crumpler 113

McMichael 103

This year (through 13 weeks):

Gronk 177

Graham 151

Gonzo 115

Witten 106

F Davis 97

Now does that kind of separation merit a 2nd-3rd round pick? Possibly, but I think you have to assume the Gronk's TD production will drop, and when that happens, there's no way he's worth a 2nd rounder. What I find interesting is that Hernandez is currently 8th in scoring for TE's and I could see a bit of a swing between their production next season. Graham is a bit harder for me to project but I agree with others that his floor is higher. In a standard scoring league with 1 TE, I could see him going in the second round easily, and may even consider taking him there myself.

 

[tikitime]

In the FBGPC where you can start up to 3 TEs and get 1.5 PPR for a TE, I will be shocked if either of them even get to the late 2nd round. If I have a late round pick, I might very well pick them both and then fill out rest of the roster.

I don't know about the other guys, but I have consistently said that flexing a TE or giving them additional PPR above what other positions get changes things enormously. In those FFPC leagues, TEs have always gone in the 1st and 2nd...I don't think that those rules apply to a majority of leagues though.

Atm in my league Gronk is ranked as the #1 TE and would also be the #1 WR if we combined the two. He is 9 points higher than Calvin for the season. Graham would fall in nice and comfy at #3 right behind Welker. So I guess a better question is would you draft Welker, Calvin, Greg Jennings etc. around that 2nd round slot? If so than why wouldn't you take Graham or Gronk? They produce like elite WR1's with more consistency.

You can't look at it on a pure points basis. The position they play and how many players in that position you can/have to start matter.

I guess what is the difference between WR1 and WR13 in a 10 team league with a flex vs. what is the differnce between TE1 and TE 6 with a flex. If Gronk or Graham repeat, I think this is close.

What makes you think that's the difference you look at? In a 10 team league, you'd be looking at TE1 vs TE10 and WR1 v WR20 or 30, I assume. (You start 2 or 3 wideouts and only 1 TE in this instance).If you add the flex, things get more complicated: you compare to all the available flex players, at the worst starter baseline (probably around "Flex Eligible 60" or so in a ten teamer)

I was thinking avg. starter at the position (WR 13 was presuming 2WR with a flex)

 

[GoBirds]

Or wait and take Hernandez late next year and watch him blow up with all the focus on Gronk . Buy low, not high.