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I take it you didn't follow the Jets towards the end of last year and saw how badly Jones faded.Plus, I can counter by saying that LT is also a consumate professional as well and his respected by his coaches and is a future hall of famer and had an outstanding preseason. Yet, last I checked Ryan still had Green as the starter.
This. If you pencil T Jones in for carries proportional to what Hightower got, 35 to 40%, and you pencil in McCluster for 60 carries or so, that only leaves 170 or so carries for Charles. That is the best case scenario for Charles, absent injury. He would have to produce at the same rate as last year over the course of an entire season to be worth his draft slot, and that won't happen.The more likely scenario, in my view, is that T. Jones gets half of the total carries, including the goal line carries, with Charles getting 40%.Those drafting Charles in the second or third round are living in a dreamworld dissociated from reality. Yell at Haley till the cows come home, but the signs are there to avoid Charles on draft day.
Thomas Jones has not looked good. I would see no reason why he would get half the carries. That's just silly. Jamaal Charles only had 190 carries last year and finished 11th in total points among RB's in my league. That was after only starting half the season. You say that you are crazy for drafting (in the 3rd round) a player who had the highest yards per carry in the NFL last year... along with being the first player in history to go over 1,100 yards in less than 200 carries?Even the Coach has said that he will run with the back that gives them the best chance to win. How do you interpret that as an even split? Charles will get the lion's share of the carries...and he will produce big. There is nothing that would lead us to believe otherwise. Not his outstanding job after starting last year... or his great job this preseason. Charles is a stud.
Therein lies your probability based answer.
This sort of thinking is delusional. Let me explain why.Last year, the Chiefs' non-QBs had 388 carries over the course of the season. That number may increase somewhat, but probably not by much. For the purposes of this analysis I will assume that there are 420 non-QB carries to go around--a 30 carry increase from last year. (By comparison, the Jets have roughly 500 carries to go around, which is why LT is so valuable). Also, for the purposes of this analysis I am assuming all three runners remain healthy. This probably helps Charles, because out of Jones, Charles, and McCluster, Charles is the biggest injury risk.Thomas Jones has been atop the Chiefs' depth chart all offseason, and remains there going into week 1. Jones also possesses a different skillset than Charles, and will be in there on goalline and short yardage plays. At a minimum, these two factors (starting job, goal line carries) indicate that Jones will receive at least 35% of the team's RB carries (roughly 140). That's Jones' floor. His ceiling is probably around 200 carries.Dexter McCluster was drafted in the early second round and is a dynamic runner, like Charles. He will play some wide receiver, but will also undoubtedly receive some carries (he had 181 carries last year in the SEC). I think he gets at least 70 carries on the season, and probably also eats into Charles' receptions. His ceiling is around 100 carries.What does that leave for Charles? At best, if Jones only gets 140 carries, and McCluster only gets 70, Charles will be left with the remaining 210 carries. That's only 20 more than he had last year. At worst, if Jones gets, say, 170 carries and McCluster 100, Charles would only be left with 150 carries.150-210 carries simply isn't worth a second or third round pick in most leagues, especially when you consider that Jones will get the goal line carries. Charles is MAYBE worth a late third round pick as a flex option, IF you assume that his yards per carry stay around 6. That is unlikely, but if you draft him in the third round that is what you have to believe.
Uhh... OK.... The point is that Charles has done nothing but shine with every opportunity that he has had since given the starting position last year. He was 2nd only to Chris Johnson in the second half of the season. He has looked GREAT in the preason.... thereis absolutely nothing pointing towards anything other than Charles getting plenty of work and being a stud. Thomas Jones' below average preseason display certainly didn't work against Charles' value.
I expect McCluster will be used heavily in the passing game, and that he will get a few reverses and end arounds a game; maybe 3 or four carries a game. I doubt that he will impact Charles that much.Change of pace backs rarely impact the fantasy production of a great player.
I don't see how you can say this when you consider the RBs on their roster and the limited number of carries to go around.
Nothing that the coach has said so far would lead anyone to believe that they are going to split carries like that. Not only that, but you are completely ignoring Charles receiving ability and production. You have to be a bit insane if you honestly think that they would give Jones MORE carries than Charles, and McCluster 100 to Charles' 150. If all three stay healthy... there is no way on earth that is ever going to happen. McCluster is NOT a threat to Charles' production. The man is not even on the team as a running back, he's a WR. Like I said before... at best he is a threat on the field that the defense will have to account for. That will only help Charles in the run AND receiving game. McCluster isn't going to get a bunch of carries or a bunch of receptions. He is going to a very useful novelty item that will keep the defense guessing and will probably provide a few big plays this year on offense or special teams. There is no possiblity that McCluster reaches anywhere even mildy close to 100 carries if all three guys stay healthy. That's just insane. He will be working in and out of slot receiver and as a kick returner with a handful of carries all year. I would guess that he will carry the ball less than 40 times from the RB position. I wouldn't be surprised to see it MUCH less than 40, but it won't go over 40 if they all stay healthy. BTW... McCluster has NOT shown to be as much of a dynamic runner as Charles at the NFL level. Not even in the preseason against 2nd and 3rd stringers. I have already addressed Thomas Jones as well. He has done nothing to show any reason why he would get equal or more carries than Charles. Jones looks slow and easy to bring down. Remindes me of S. Alexander a couple years ago. Charles has picked up exactly where he left off last year. Thomas Jones doesn't even look better on short yardage. Charles has looked explosive in that area as well. Just look at last year's highlights of Charles. Many of them will show the way that he spears through on those short yardage situations. Jones will not be vulturing all of the TD's either. Doesn't matter that much anyways as Charles does his own work and can take his TD's to the house from anywhere on the field.
5x? How did you come up with that?
What makes you believe that Charles in the biggest injury risk compared to an aged RB and a diminutive WR/RB hybrid?
Ask any defensive SEC player from McFadden's college career what RB scared them the most, they'd say McFadden. He sucks as a Pro.Ask any Pac-10 defensive player from Reggie Bush's college career what RB scared them the most, they'd say Bush. He isn't much better.College "scary" doesn't = NFL "scary."
Wasn't Harvin more of a hybrid at the collegiate level though? I don't recall him ever having over 100 carries in a single season, let alone 181.
Both guys were hybrids playing in different offensive systems. Harvin was the best RB in the Florida roster. He had 83 carries as a sophomore and 70 as a junior. In Florida's offense that is a significant amount.
Harvin never had 181 carries in a college season, though, as McCluster did. But it is still college.However, Harvin doesn't weigh 170 lbs, either. When McCluster is in the game, the opposition D will know that there is some kind of gadget play, or run towards the edges. At 170, McCluster isn't going to be successful between the tackles. This is the main reason he won't get 70-100 carries, IMO.
that is quite apparent. Hopefully you will see it for your own sake before it's too late. Hint* It probably has tp do with you projecting McCluster for 4-5x as many carries as he will actually get.
I've watched the highlights and know Charles has ability. I'm not disputing that or ignoring it. What's important isn't how many carries you or I think Charles should get, but how many carries he will get. You don't seem to be considering that question--you just blindly compare the talent of the two players.Again, Jones is penciled in as the starting running back. He possesses certain skills and intangibles that Charles does not--experience, leadership, a track record of durability and toughness, and short yardage ability. More importantly, Haley seems dead set on giving him a significant number of carries. This is why I think Jones' floor is 140 carries. Notably, this could be less than what Charles receives(notice that in my earlier post that I said Charles could get up to 210 carries), but it will still put a big dent in Charles' numbers.
ass ratio. I said McCluster would get 70-100 carries, and I'll stick to that, although I think it will be closer to 70. This is only 4 or 5 carries a game. But it's enough to cut into Charles' numbers. You don't draft a guy like McCluster in the early second round and relegate him to kick return duties.
Thomas jones has missed three games in the last seven seasons, and the last game he missed was in 2005. The guy is a tank. He won't get hurt.McCluster could get hurt, but probably won't. He won't touch the ball enough to get hurt probably. McCluster is built much more solidly than Charles.
I don't see a contradiction in anything I said.Contradict yourself much?
One guy won't get hurt because he hasn't since 2005 and he is a "tank." Another hasn't missed any games as a professional in 2 years yet is a huge risk to get injured. Now all of a sudden McCluster (5'8, 170) is built more solid than Charles (5'11, 200)?I don't see a contradiction in anything I said.
You've watched the highlights? How many games have you watched? I've watched plenty of them and Charles runs nothing like Norwood.I've watched the highlights and know Charles has ability. I'm not disputing that or ignoring it. What's important isn't how many carries you or I think Charles should get, but how many carries he will get. You don't seem to be considering that question--you just blindly compare the talent of the two players.
Again, Jones is penciled in as the starting running back. He possesses certain skills and intangibles that Charles does not--experience, leadership, a track record of durability and toughness, and short yardage ability. More importantly, Haley seems dead set on giving him a significant number of carries. This is why I think Jones' floor is 140 carries. Notably, this could be less than what Charles receives(notice that in my earlier post that I said Charles could get up to 210 carries), but it will still put a big dent in Charles' numbers.
I'm sure Charles owners will whine about how much Jones sucks all season long, but that won't change the fact that he will get at least 140 carries.
As far as McCluster is concerned, he was a very successful tailback in college. He's not the equivalent of Harvin for several reasons: (1) he is much smaller, (2) he was more of a runner in college than Harvin was, and (3) his quarterback (Cassel) is not as skilled as Harvin's (Favre), so that getting the ball in McClusters hands will require a higher run
So in your opinion T. Jones will not get 140 carries this season? I'll take that bet.You've watched the highlights? How many games have you watched? I've watched plenty of them and Charles runs nothing like Norwood.I've watched the highlights and know Charles has ability. I'm not disputing that or ignoring it. What's important isn't how many carries you or I think Charles should get, but how many carries he will get. You don't seem to be considering that question--you just blindly compare the talent of the two players.
Again, Jones is penciled in as the starting running back. He possesses certain skills and intangibles that Charles does not--experience, leadership, a track record of durability and toughness, and short yardage ability. More importantly, Haley seems dead set on giving him a significant number of carries. This is why I think Jones' floor is 140 carries. Notably, this could be less than what Charles receives(notice that in my earlier post that I said Charles could get up to 210 carries), but it will still put a big dent in Charles' numbers.
I'm sure Charles owners will whine about how much Jones sucks all season long, but that won't change the fact that he will get at least 140 carries.
As far as McCluster is concerned, he was a very successful tailback in college. He's not the equivalent of Harvin for several reasons: (1) he is much smaller, (2) he was more of a runner in college than Harvin was, and (3) his quarterback (Cassel) is not as skilled as Harvin's (Favre), so that getting the ball in McClusters hands will require a higher run
No, Haley seems dead set on giving the best player/hot hand the ball. He has stated this numerous times. Nothing has pointed to that being Jones. Nobody disputes that Jones could and likely will vulture some GL work. If Jones sucks all season long it's highly unlikely he will see the 140 carries you want to project because of the above. Actually I think for you're purposes the best thing you can hope for is that Jones sucks all season long. Then possibly McCluster gets more carries if he is up to the task.
OK and when did McCluster become the primary focus of the KC offense? The bolded is pure opinion on your part.
No, you draft a guy like McCluster in the 2nd round as a WR to play... WR! As explosive as he is it is a bonus that he will become your return guy as well.
No, I said if T. Jones sucks all year (like you sighted) he won't get 140 carries.You think McCluster will get at least 70 carries. I'll take that bet easily.So in your opinion T. Jones will not get 140 carries this season? I'll take that bet.You've watched the highlights? How many games have you watched? I've watched plenty of them and Charles runs nothing like Norwood.I've watched the highlights and know Charles has ability. I'm not disputing that or ignoring it. What's important isn't how many carries you or I think Charles should get, but how many carries he will get. You don't seem to be considering that question--you just blindly compare the talent of the two players.
Again, Jones is penciled in as the starting running back. He possesses certain skills and intangibles that Charles does not--experience, leadership, a track record of durability and toughness, and short yardage ability. More importantly, Haley seems dead set on giving him a significant number of carries. This is why I think Jones' floor is 140 carries. Notably, this could be less than what Charles receives(notice that in my earlier post that I said Charles could get up to 210 carries), but it will still put a big dent in Charles' numbers.
I'm sure Charles owners will whine about how much Jones sucks all season long, but that won't change the fact that he will get at least 140 carries.
As far as McCluster is concerned, he was a very successful tailback in college. He's not the equivalent of Harvin for several reasons: (1) he is much smaller, (2) he was more of a runner in college than Harvin was, and (3) his quarterback (Cassel) is not as skilled as Harvin's (Favre), so that getting the ball in McClusters hands will require a higher run
No, Haley seems dead set on giving the best player/hot hand the ball. He has stated this numerous times. Nothing has pointed to that being Jones. Nobody disputes that Jones could and likely will vulture some GL work. If Jones sucks all season long it's highly unlikely he will see the 140 carries you want to project because of the above. Actually I think for you're purposes the best thing you can hope for is that Jones sucks all season long. Then possibly McCluster gets more carries if he is up to the task.
OK and when did McCluster become the primary focus of the KC offense? The bolded is pure opinion on your part.
No, you draft a guy like McCluster in the 2nd round as a WR to play... WR! As explosive as he is it is a bonus that he will become your return guy as well.
I'm not as sure about McCluster's carries. I think he'll get 70, but I'm not sure. T. Jones' carries are much more impactful on Charles' numbers, in any event.So, are we on for T. Jones? You take the under, I take the over, at 140 carries (9 carries per game)?No, I said if T. Jones sucks all year (like you sighted) he won't get 140 carries.You think McCluster will get at least 70 carries. I'll take that bet easily.So in your opinion T. Jones will not get 140 carries this season? I'll take that bet.You've watched the highlights? How many games have you watched? I've watched plenty of them and Charles runs nothing like Norwood.I've watched the highlights and know Charles has ability. I'm not disputing that or ignoring it. What's important isn't how many carries you or I think Charles should get, but how many carries he will get. You don't seem to be considering that question--you just blindly compare the talent of the two players.
Again, Jones is penciled in as the starting running back. He possesses certain skills and intangibles that Charles does not--experience, leadership, a track record of durability and toughness, and short yardage ability. More importantly, Haley seems dead set on giving him a significant number of carries. This is why I think Jones' floor is 140 carries. Notably, this could be less than what Charles receives(notice that in my earlier post that I said Charles could get up to 210 carries), but it will still put a big dent in Charles' numbers.
I'm sure Charles owners will whine about how much Jones sucks all season long, but that won't change the fact that he will get at least 140 carries.
As far as McCluster is concerned, he was a very successful tailback in college. He's not the equivalent of Harvin for several reasons: (1) he is much smaller, (2) he was more of a runner in college than Harvin was, and (3) his quarterback (Cassel) is not as skilled as Harvin's (Favre), so that getting the ball in McClusters hands will require a higher run
No, Haley seems dead set on giving the best player/hot hand the ball. He has stated this numerous times. Nothing has pointed to that being Jones. Nobody disputes that Jones could and likely will vulture some GL work. If Jones sucks all season long it's highly unlikely he will see the 140 carries you want to project because of the above. Actually I think for you're purposes the best thing you can hope for is that Jones sucks all season long. Then possibly McCluster gets more carries if he is up to the task.
OK and when did McCluster become the primary focus of the KC offense? The bolded is pure opinion on your part.
No, you draft a guy like McCluster in the 2nd round as a WR to play... WR! As explosive as he is it is a bonus that he will become your return guy as well.
I never said I thought Jones wouldn't get 140 carries. Again, I said if he sucks all season long like you sighted he wouldn't. I don't think he sucks all season long and will at least have a few games where he plays well.You said McCluster would get anywhere from 70 - 100 carries. Here are your exact words:
I'm giving you the option of taking the McCluster bet at a level you are most sure about according to your projections. Why all of a sudden are you not so sure about it? You are setting McCluster FLOOR at a level you aren't sure about now?
I never said McCluster's floor is 70. If you mince my words, I said his ceiling is 100 and I think he will get at least 70. His floor is probably about 40 carries though, if he is used like Harvin. I'm not taking that bet.I'm glad to hear that you think Jones will get over 140 carries, because he will.
McCluster bench pressed something like 25 reps at the combine. I'd like to see Charles do that. McCluster is solidly built, much moreso than Charles.I admit, my my opinion of charles being injury prone is based in large part on the way he runs and not on injury history. Call it a hunch.One guy won't get hurt because he hasn't since 2005 and he is a "tank." Another hasn't missed any games as a professional in 2 years yet is a huge risk to get injured. Now all of a sudden McCluster (5'8, 170) is built more solid than Charles (5'11, 200)?I don't see a contradiction in anything I said.
You realize if they use him like Harvin then his floor is about 15 carries? You know, the # of carries Harvin actually got last year despite so many predicting 40+ carries. I mean, that's only 2-3 carries/game, right?
McCluster is essentially 0 threat to Charles in terms of carries. While I love Charles and think he will be the primary ball carrier, I'm quite sure T. Jones is still going to get his share and I think 140 is easily a floor for him and he'll probably get in the 170-180 range. I don't think Charles gets more than 225 carries and most likely a little less. But, I also think Charles is going to get a boatload of targets in the passing game and he's easily going to be a 250+ touch RB when you combine them. If he continues his current rate of production, which I think he will, that is more than enough touches to make him fantasy relevant. I think he's going to have a minimum of 1400 combined yards with 50+ catches. The TDs will be interesting and difficult to predict with Jones in the mix, but at that point, it's just gravy. In PPR leagues, Charles is going to help carry some teams for sure.
When I say "used like Harvin" I don't mean equivalent statistics. I mean, used almost exclusively as a slot receiver and not as a wildcat qb or halfback. McCluster will easily exceed 15 carries, you can bank on it. He probably isn't a huge threat to Charles carry-wise, but the whole point of this exercise is allocating the Chiefs 420 carries. He has to be factored in.I actually think McCluster's biggest impact on Charles will be in the receiving game. I think McCluster is a better blocker than Charles, and will be in there as a tailback on 3rd downs sometimes. I don't see Charles getting 50 catches; 30-40 is more realistic, in my view.You realize if they use him like Harvin then his floor is about 15 carries? You know, the # of carries Harvin actually got last year despite so many predicting 40+ carries. I mean, that's only 2-3 carries/game, right?
First of all, I didn't realize KC was slotted to just 420 carries as a team. They bring in a RB like T. Jones. They bring in McCluster that everyone is convinced will be a part of the running game. And, they have a dynamic runner who proved his worth last year yet they are going to run fewer times than last year's 438 carries? That number is gonna go down, not up. The direction of this football team is changing.When I say "used like Harvin" I don't mean equivalent statistics. I mean, used almost exclusively as a slot receiver and not as a wildcat qb or halfback. McCluster will easily exceed 15 carries, you can bank on it. He probably isn't a huge threat to Charles carry-wise, but the whole point of this exercise is allocating the Chiefs 420 carries. He has to be factored in.I actually think McCluster's biggest impact on Charles will be in the receiving game. I think McCluster is a better blocker than Charles, and will be in there as a tailback on 3rd downs sometimes. I don't see Charles getting 50 catches; 30-40 is more realistic, in my view.You realize if they use him like Harvin then his floor is about 15 carries? You know, the # of carries Harvin actually got last year despite so many predicting 40+ carries. I mean, that's only 2-3 carries/game, right?
Just because Jones hasn't missed must time since 2005 doesn't guarantee that he won't miss time this year or continue to be as ineffective as he has been in the preseason. Father time is catching up with him and the Jets realized that.Your comments about McCluster being built more solidly than Charles is funny. McCluster is 5"8" and weighs 165lbs. Charles is 5'11" and weighs 199lbs. I don't care how you slice it, McCluster is not more solid than Charles.
First, McCluster benched 20 reps, not 25, and second who cares? How often do RBs use their arms to push someone off of them? The only time I can think of is in certain blocking situations. If you think that the 170 lb McCluster is going to be a 3rd-down back because of his blocking ability (despite how "solidly built" he is), you're more nuts that your posts indicate.
McCluster is 5'8", 170 lbs, Charles is 5'11", 199. Charles weighs 29 more lbs, spread out over 3 more inches. To me that doesn't indicate that either is more solidly built, especially McCluster.
Hard to say how much value was there without knowing your roster req's and scoring system.He fell to 4.05 in mine, but he was the 13th RB taken.
