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*****Official 2014 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)

Brady Marino said:
BRONG said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Raider Nation said:
Is a large bet on California Chrome to show a total square bet? He's the favorite, out of a manageable hole, surrounded by mostly longshots.
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IMO yes
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Yep. If he doesn't take to the track, you're ####ed. If he likes the surface and shipped well (and by some accounts he didn't), he'll romp.
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Yeah, the word that he's not taking to CD well is a bit bothersome. I included him in my exacta and trifecta boxes, but I like Danza, Dance with Fate, and arguably Wicked Strong more.
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I have the the exact same horses, but underneath and boxed (half as much), with Candy Boy as well. GLLLllll

But mostly, just one large wager (for me) on Cali Chrome to win. :)

 
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I used to go to the dog track back in the day with my pops. We would bet on whichever dog took a crap on the track when they were trotting them out.

 
Danza, Samraat, Intense Holiday, Candy Boy, and Wicked Strong are my plays today. Trifecta Box and Superfecta Box. Intense Holiday WPS.

 
Damn that was boring but impressive run by chrome dome. I'll root for him to win triple crown... as always

 
bshell27 said:
southeastjerome said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
grateful zed said:
southeastjerome said:
Hit it! Had 4, 5, 12, 17 and 20 super box. $2 bet. Best derby ever!
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how much?
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$2 Superfecta: $15,383.80
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Yup. Hit the exacta too for another $425
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That's effing fantastic. Really happy somebody won. I didn't cash a single bet.
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Thanks. I NEVER. Win at the derby.

ETA: I have to credit Smails for talking up Curve. He had me take another long look at him. I hope he played some of the horses he talked about.

 
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Judge Smails said:
My 2 keys are:

1) Danza to come in first or second. I just think he's got a ton of positives. He was highly regarded as a 2 year old, lost by a 1/2 length in a graded stake. Then had the layoff. 2nd race off was the monster win. Same time as the champion Will Take Charge ran later that day. That's huge - you know his time was legit. He sat 3rd/4th and made a huge move on the rail turning for home. That's the kind of race that wins a lot of Kentucky Derby's. With the 4 post he's likely to get a similar trip, won't lose ground, and you know he's OK on the rail (some like to rally wide). Finally, horses from Oaklawn (and FG) seem to translate to Churchill. He's working great over the track. Horses shipping from CA and NY are always a bit of a wildcard. I'm not that concerned with the limited races - I know he's not over the top.

2) Commanding Curve. Think his style plays well to get in the Superfecta at a price.

Wicked Strong will be boxed with both. Still believe he's the real deal - just worried about the trip. He'll be coming with Commanding Curve. I'll figure out a way to include California Chrome - but they will mostly be smaller saver plays. I'll play lots of tri's and supers with higher prices as I outlined earlier. But I'll only really cash if Danza runs well. I might even do a $20 exacta box with my top 4, $1 tri box, $1 super box. That's $288. Plus the supers I outlined earlier hoping California Chrome runs out and I can hit a monster. Keep the info coming - all is subject to change until race time!
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Congrats on the poster who hit the $2 tri. Great hit. I wish somebody would have hit me over the head with a shovel and made me play what I outlined above. Jesus. Only 4 horses I outlined were California Chrome, Commanding Curve, Danza and Wicked Strong. That $20 exacta, $1 tri, $1 super for the $288 play above. I think it was 20K total.I had everything but. In hindsight leaned a bit too much on Wicked Strong ($20 exactas to Danza, Commanding Curve and California Chrome, $10 reversed). Also had exactas with California Chrome on top to Danza and a few other horses (like Intense Holiday - pig). The only freakin' combo I didn't end up having was California Chrome to Commanding Curve.

In hindsight, this was a very easy race to hit. Seriously. Take the 3 major prep winners who drew off at 1 1/8 miles and the 1 horse who would benefit from a meltdown. The majority of the horses can't go the distance. Period.

Congrats to all who won. Fortunately I hit the last few races of the day at Santa Anita to make a comeback, but nothing like a 20K score. Oh well.

 
FML. Small board I have been on for 10+ years, guy does his write up every year. Convinced a bunch of people (4-6) in his bets. They all hit the exacta, superfecta and trifecta if they acted all 3 bets. Total winnings in the group is prob 50k+. Needless to say I will be tuned in next year. I don't know #### about horses, but almost jumped in but am ####### moving this weekend ??

 
Wes Welker apparently hit it big on the Derby, he was seen walking around with a giant wad of cash and a police escort after the race and was handing out $100 bills to strangers.

 
Just got this post race commentary from a buddy

Anyway Danza nearly took out a couple of horses in the stretch, one of which was Medal Count, who would have been there for sure in 3rd, maybe 2nd he was coming hard and had to pull up.

I was surprised that there was no inquiry into that but with a 19 horse field, traffic is going to happen.

Danza was like a blue hair old lady going from the far left land on the highway to the off ramp in one move.....very dangerous.

:lmao:

 
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