Okay so we know that the draw is not very likely to be kind to the USA - but I was wondering what do we (and the other teams) really deserve?
So what I did is I took the 3 most notable rankings (FIFA, SPI, and ELO) and then put groups together, starting with the top seed and then snaking around - adhering to the FIFA requirements that no group have more than 2 UEFA teams in the same group and no more than 1 team from any confederation in the same group. In the case where I ran up against this requirement I dropped the team I was adding in question (which always seemed to be Ecuador) until the requirement was met (the exception in some scenarios was flipping Algeria and Australia, the last 2 teams in some methods, in order to meet the requirement. The FIFA rankings left a question of what to do with Brazil, which i ranked 11th in the October FIFA rankings. In one scenario I seeded them, but as #8 overall. In another I seeded them as #1 overall. In the 3rd I seeded them according to their FIFA rank. Since Brazil is #1 in both SPI and ELO, I did not need to do these alternate systems for those rankings. So without further adu...
I've also adjusted the groups assigned, b/c why not, based on seed. To split the groups up so that
1 would play 8, with winner gets 4 vs 5 winner and then 2 vs 7 and 3 v 6 on the other side, moving things around in such a way that Brazil is always in group A (I'll put the number of the seed in parentheses for reference)
Method 1 - Brazil gets seeded as the lowest top seed (8th) using FIFA rankings otherwise
Group A (8) - Brazil, Netherlands, Costa Rica, Algeria
Group B (1) - Spain, Bosnia, Cote D'Ivoire, Australia
Group C (4) - Colombia, USA, Russia, Iran
Group D (5) - Belgium, Chile, France, Japan
Group E (2) - Germany, Greece, Ecuador, Cameroon
Group F (7) - Switzerland, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria
Group G (3) - Argentina, Portugal, Croatia, S Korea
Group H (6) - Uruguay, England, Ghana, Honduras
Method 2 - Brazil gets seeded as the top overall seed using FIFA rankings otherwise
Group A (1) - Brazil, Bosnia, Cote D'Ivoire, Australia
Group B (8) - Switzerland, Netherlands, Costa Rica, Algeria
Group C (4) - Argentina, Portugal, Russia, Iran
Group D (5) - Colombia, USA, France, Japan
Group E (2) - Spain, Greece, Ecuador, Cameroon
Group F (7) - Uruguay, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria
Group G (3) - Germany, Chile, Croatia, S Korea
Group H (6) - Belgium, England, Ghana, Honduras
Method 3 - Brazil gets no seed consideration - FIFA rankings used for everyone
Group A (5) - Belgium, Brazil, Ghana, Honduras
Group B (4) - Colombia, Portugal, France, Iran
Group C (1) - Spain, Bosnia, Cote D'Ivoire, Australia
Group D (8) - Netherlands, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria
Group E (2) - Germany, Chile, Croatia, Cameroon
Group F (7) - Switzerland, England, Ecuador, Costa Rica
Group G (3) - Argentina, Greece, Russia, S Korea
Group H (6) - Uruguay, USA, Algeria, Japan
Method 4 - SPI Rankings (Brazil already ranked #1)
Group A (1) - Brazil, Russia, Portugal, Algeria
Group B (8) - Uruguay, Netherlands, Nigeria, Croatia
Group C (4) - Germany, Ecuador, Switzerland, Iran
Group D (5) - Chile, Italy, Ghana, S Korea
Group E (2) - Argentina, USA, Cote D'Ivoire, Australia
Group F (7) - France, England, Mexico, Japan
Group G (3) - Spain, Bosnia, Costa Rica, Cameroon
Group H (6) - Colombia, Belgium, Greece, Honduras
Method 5 - ELO Rankings (Brazil already ranked #1)
Group A (1) - Brazil, Greece, Belgium, Algeria
Group B (8) - Portugal, Uruguay, Iran, Nigeria
Group C (4) - Argentina, USA, Croatia, S Korea
Group D (5) - Netherlands, France, Mexico, Ghana
Group E (2) - Spain, Russia, Ecuador, Cameroon
Group F (7) - England, Chile, Japan, Costa Rica
Group G (3) - Germany, Switzerland, Cote D'Ivoire, Honduras
Group H (6) - Colombia, Italy, Bosnia, Australia
Two things I take away from this:
Every single one of these sets of groups cannot possibly happen for the USA. We really are getting a raw deal here.
As wack as people think the FIFA rankings are, it seems that ELO rankings are pretty wack as well. Australia ranked ahead of Ghana? Okay then.
Anyhow, figured I throw this into the conversation. It also can serve as a measuring stick when evaluating how each team fared in the draw
-QG