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***Official 2014 World Cup Thread*** (2 Viewers)

I don't understand (well, besides "Its FIFA") why they don't simply seed all teams into 4 quadrants, then draw from pots.

I don't think there is a valid reason to keep Euro teams from playing each other in a group, nor do I think it is bad for the sport, even from a Euro-centric viewpoint, if a group had 4 Euro teams in it. You already have geographic limitations built into the qualification process, so I don't think it hurts to allow them grouped together - subject to some rational basis for placing teams within the 4 quadrants.
I think it makes sense. Just like they try to keep teams from the same conference in different brackets for March Madness.

 
I don't understand (well, besides "Its FIFA") why they don't simply seed all teams into 4 quadrants, then draw from pots.

I don't think there is a valid reason to keep Euro teams from playing each other in a group, nor do I think it is bad for the sport, even from a Euro-centric viewpoint, if a group had 4 Euro teams in it. You already have geographic limitations built into the qualification process, so I don't think it hurts to allow them grouped together - subject to some rational basis for placing teams within the 4 quadrants.
I suppose the argument is that we want the games to get better as the tourney progresses. It might be kind of anticlimactic for Germany to come out of a group with France and Italy and then face Costa Rica and Cameroon in the next two rounds.

 
I don't understand (well, besides "Its FIFA") why they don't simply seed all teams into 4 quadrants, then draw from pots.

I don't think there is a valid reason to keep Euro teams from playing each other in a group, nor do I think it is bad for the sport, even from a Euro-centric viewpoint, if a group had 4 Euro teams in it. You already have geographic limitations built into the qualification process, so I don't think it hurts to allow them grouped together - subject to some rational basis for placing teams within the 4 quadrants.
I think it makes sense. Just like they try to keep teams from the same conference in different brackets for March Madness.
What happens, though, is that you get a bunch of Euro v. Euro games when the knockout rounds start. I'm not sure it's better to have ACC teams avoid each other in the early rounds of the bracket if it means you have an all-ACC semifinal round. At least, it's ambiguous.

 
I don't understand (well, besides "Its FIFA") why they don't simply seed all teams into 4 quadrants, then draw from pots.

I don't think there is a valid reason to keep Euro teams from playing each other in a group, nor do I think it is bad for the sport, even from a Euro-centric viewpoint, if a group had 4 Euro teams in it. You already have geographic limitations built into the qualification process, so I don't think it hurts to allow them grouped together - subject to some rational basis for placing teams within the 4 quadrants.
I suppose the argument is that we want the games to get better as the tourney progresses. It might be kind of anticlimactic for Germany to come out of a group with France and Italy and then face Costa Rica and Cameroon in the next two rounds.
Perhaps - but that is the point of seeding the teams first 1-8, 9-16, 17-24, 25-32

That gets you the best "random" draw, while still putting favorites in a position to advance. IT creates the best potential match-ups throughout the tourney.

Right now, its simply UEFA saying we don't want our 13 teams to knock each other out in the group stage - bad for business back home.

 
I don't understand (well, besides "Its FIFA") why they don't simply seed all teams into 4 quadrants, then draw from pots.

I don't think there is a valid reason to keep Euro teams from playing each other in a group, nor do I think it is bad for the sport, even from a Euro-centric viewpoint, if a group had 4 Euro teams in it. You already have geographic limitations built into the qualification process, so I don't think it hurts to allow them grouped together - subject to some rational basis for placing teams within the 4 quadrants.
I think it makes sense. Just like they try to keep teams from the same conference in different brackets for March Madness.
What happens, though, is that you get a bunch of Euro v. Euro games when the knockout rounds start. I'm not sure it's better to have ACC teams avoid each other in the early rounds of the bracket if it means you have an all-ACC semifinal round. At least, it's ambiguous.
Well, if the Euro teams are that good, they deserve to survive to the knockout round.

 
I don't understand (well, besides "Its FIFA") why they don't simply seed all teams into 4 quadrants, then draw from pots.

I don't think there is a valid reason to keep Euro teams from playing each other in a group, nor do I think it is bad for the sport, even from a Euro-centric viewpoint, if a group had 4 Euro teams in it. You already have geographic limitations built into the qualification process, so I don't think it hurts to allow them grouped together - subject to some rational basis for placing teams within the 4 quadrants.
I suppose the argument is that we want the games to get better as the tourney progresses. It might be kind of anticlimactic for Germany to come out of a group with France and Italy and then face Costa Rica and Cameroon in the next two rounds.
Perhaps - but that is the point of seeding the teams first 1-8, 9-16, 17-24, 25-32

That gets you the best "random" draw, while still putting favorites in a position to advance. IT creates the best potential match-ups throughout the tourney.

Right now, its simply UEFA saying we don't want our 13 teams to knock each other out in the group stage - bad for business back home.
I mostly agree with you (although I don't trust Fifa rankings either).

I kind of prefer having a weird semifinal run, even if I think that it's probably true that the European Championships are a "better" tournament considering the average quality of play. So I don't mind if Holland get hosed while South Korea gets some breaks.

 
I'd also point out the extreme difficulty in actually ranking the teams. And, with FIFA in charge, it would never be corruption free.

The current way that FIFA does its listed rankings is pure folly. Team composition changes yearly - so looking back at team success/failure from 4 years ago is useless to determine the strength of the current squad. Then, you need to toss out friendly results when doing the rankings - so many things go into a friendly game, in terms of how strong a line-up is presented v. getting new players a shot. Then you have to consider that almost all "competitive" national team matches are within the same confederation - i.e. not enough cross-federation matches to get a real sense of how the confederations match up with each other at any given time.

 
"Good said:
:blackdot: Great kick-off, NR.

Another interesting fact to remember (and has been discussed in the Soccer Thread already) is that South American teams have won all four World Cups hosted in South America. They've also won the two hosted in Mexico (Brazil in 70, Argentina in 86). 9 out of 10 WC's held in Europe were won by European teams, btw. Brazil broke serve in Sweden in 1958.

Brazil's probably the best team in the world before HFA, and they're the clear favorites. But like NR showed, the field is loaded. And there are multiple other South American teams who can give them problems.
I wouldn't classify Brazil as favorites on a neutral pitch. Brazil's top two strikers are still Fred and Jo. They still play David Luiz at CB (and would be particularly exposed if Thiago Silva were to miss a game due to injury or suspension, IMO). Neymar is an excellent talent, but Hulk is a bit of a puzzle on the RW for the Selecao. I also believe that teams are going to kick the hell out of Neymar, unfortunately.
Dante isn't a bad #3 at cb. I would not consider DL4 a super strong world class cb generally, but he's hardly a weak spot for Brazil, given their style of play as I understand it.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
:blackdot: Great kick-off, NR.

Another interesting fact to remember (and has been discussed in the Soccer Thread already) is that South American teams have won all four World Cups hosted in South America. They've also won the two hosted in Mexico (Brazil in 70, Argentina in 86). 9 out of 10 WC's held in Europe were won by European teams, btw. Brazil broke serve in Sweden in 1958.

Brazil's probably the best team in the world before HFA, and they're the clear favorites. But like NR showed, the field is loaded. And there are multiple other South American teams who can give them problems.
I wouldn't classify Brazil as favorites on a neutral pitch. Brazil's top two strikers are still Fred and Jo. They still play David Luiz at CB (and would be particularly exposed if Thiago Silva were to miss a game due to injury or suspension, IMO). Neymar is an excellent talent, but Hulk is a bit of a puzzle on the RW for the Selecao. I also believe that teams are going to kick the hell out of Neymar, unfortunately.
You would think they'd start Dante over Luiz. Or Marquinhos!

 
Perhaps - but that is the point of seeding the teams first 1-8, 9-16, 17-24, 25-32
since I don't like the FIFA rankings, lets use SPI and see what the pots would look like in this scenario for fun

Pot 1:

Brazil

Argie

Spain

Germany

Chile

Colombia

France

Uruguay

Pot 2:

Holland

England

Ecuador

Belgium

Italy

Bosnia

US

Russia

Pot 3:

Portugal

Ivory Coast

Switzerland

Costa Rica

Ghana

Greece

Mexico

Nigeria

Pot 4:

Croatia

Japan

Honduras

South Korea

Iran

Cameroon

Australia

Algeria

 
"Good said:
:blackdot: Great kick-off, NR.

Another interesting fact to remember (and has been discussed in the Soccer Thread already) is that South American teams have won all four World Cups hosted in South America. They've also won the two hosted in Mexico (Brazil in 70, Argentina in 86). 9 out of 10 WC's held in Europe were won by European teams, btw. Brazil broke serve in Sweden in 1958.

Brazil's probably the best team in the world before HFA, and they're the clear favorites. But like NR showed, the field is loaded. And there are multiple other South American teams who can give them problems.
I wouldn't classify Brazil as favorites on a neutral pitch. Brazil's top two strikers are still Fred and Jo. They still play David Luiz at CB (and would be particularly exposed if Thiago Silva were to miss a game due to injury or suspension, IMO). Neymar is an excellent talent, but Hulk is a bit of a puzzle on the RW for the Selecao. I also believe that teams are going to kick the hell out of Neymar, unfortunately.
Dante isn't a bad #3 at cb. I would not consider DL4 a super strong world class cb generally, but he's hardly a weak spot for Brazil, given their style of play as I understand it.
That's fair. I do think Luiz is a talented but error prone CB. In a short tournament, it only takes one bad game. Often, only one bad mistake (Felipe Melo's red card against Holland at the last WC, for example).

 
"Good said:
:blackdot: Great kick-off, NR.

Another interesting fact to remember (and has been discussed in the Soccer Thread already) is that South American teams have won all four World Cups hosted in South America. They've also won the two hosted in Mexico (Brazil in 70, Argentina in 86). 9 out of 10 WC's held in Europe were won by European teams, btw. Brazil broke serve in Sweden in 1958.

Brazil's probably the best team in the world before HFA, and they're the clear favorites. But like NR showed, the field is loaded. And there are multiple other South American teams who can give them problems.
I wouldn't classify Brazil as favorites on a neutral pitch. Brazil's top two strikers are still Fred and Jo. They still play David Luiz at CB (and would be particularly exposed if Thiago Silva were to miss a game due to injury or suspension, IMO). Neymar is an excellent talent, but Hulk is a bit of a puzzle on the RW for the Selecao. I also believe that teams are going to kick the hell out of Neymar, unfortunately.
You would think they'd start Dante over Luiz. Or Marquinhos!
It could be a toss up at cb, but I thought Luiz looked great in the Confed, and Phil has even been giving him the armband in recent friendlies.

My prediction for the Samba Boys next summer is a coming out party for #11.

 
"Good said:
:blackdot: Great kick-off, NR.

Another interesting fact to remember (and has been discussed in the Soccer Thread already) is that South American teams have won all four World Cups hosted in South America. They've also won the two hosted in Mexico (Brazil in 70, Argentina in 86). 9 out of 10 WC's held in Europe were won by European teams, btw. Brazil broke serve in Sweden in 1958.

Brazil's probably the best team in the world before HFA, and they're the clear favorites. But like NR showed, the field is loaded. And there are multiple other South American teams who can give them problems.
I wouldn't classify Brazil as favorites on a neutral pitch. Brazil's top two strikers are still Fred and Jo. They still play David Luiz at CB (and would be particularly exposed if Thiago Silva were to miss a game due to injury or suspension, IMO). Neymar is an excellent talent, but Hulk is a bit of a puzzle on the RW for the Selecao. I also believe that teams are going to kick the hell out of Neymar, unfortunately.
You would think they'd start Dante over Luiz. Or Marquinhos!
It could be a toss up at cb, but I thought Luiz looked great in the Confed, and Phil has even been giving him the armband in recent friendlies.

My prediction for the Samba Boys next summer is a coming out party for #11.
I agree, Luiz isn't getting enough credit for the great job he did in the Confederations Cup. With Dante, Marquinhos, and Luis or Adriano as depth I'm not really worried about the back line.

Hulk at RW is a bit odd, but I don't expect he will play too wide with Alves bombing forward behind him. I think the Fred and Jo stuff is a bit of European bias.

Keys will continue to be Neymar and Oscar, who were excellent in Confederations.

 
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Looks like they're planning to use spray paint to mark the 10-yard line for free kicks next year.
Fifa moves like a tectonic plate. This is such a simple and affective solution that Fifa will figure out a way to screw it up some how. I am sure they are pitting two companies against each other to maximize the bribes. There is no testing that needs to be done, it has been used in thousands of games already.

The spray is something akin to shaving cream. It de-marks perfectly and then disappears.

It should be mandatory at every professional game, be it club or international level.

 
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Looks like they're planning to use spray paint to mark the 10-yard line for free kicks next year.
Fifa moves like a tectonic plate. This is such a simple and affective solution that Fifa will figure out a way to screw it up some how. I am sure they are pitting two companies against each other to maximize the bribes. There is no testing that needs to be done, it has been used in thousands of games already.

The spray is something akin to shaving cream. It de-marks perfectly and then disappears.

It should be mandatory at every professional game, be it club or international level.
Can't understand why UEFA hasn't adopted this. Just makes too much sense.

 
Looks like they're planning to use spray paint to mark the 10-yard line for free kicks next year.
Fifa moves like a tectonic plate. This is such a simple and affective solution that Fifa will figure out a way to screw it up some how. I am sure they are pitting two companies against each other to maximize the bribes. There is no testing that needs to be done, it has been used in thousands of games already.

The spray is something akin to shaving cream. It de-marks perfectly and then disappears.

It should be mandatory at every professional game, be it club or international level.
Can't understand why UEFA hasn't adopted this. Just makes too much sense.
I think it is so ingrained in the sport that any change must be a bad change. Association Football makes baseball look nimble in comparison when it comes to changes that will help the sport. This spray change has the following positive affects

1) speeds up the game

2) creates more chances at scoring on free kicks (since without the line, players encroach easily 1-2 yards before kick is taken)

3) reduces yellow cards

I can't think of a single negative affect outside of "oh no this is different, shield my eyes" type of stuff.

Hopefully with billions of people watching next summer, the various leagues and confederations will adopt it for the 2013/14 league seasons.

 
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This spray change has the following positive affects1) speeds up the game

2) creates more chances at scoring on free kicks (since without the line, players encroach easily 1-2 yards before kick is taken)

3) reduces yellow cards

I can't think of a single negative affect outside of "oh no this is different, shield my eyes" type of stuff.
Didier Drogba will trip over the invisible line and roll around on the ground for five minutes

 
This spray change has the following positive affects1) speeds up the game

2) creates more chances at scoring on free kicks (since without the line, players encroach easily 1-2 yards before kick is taken)

3) reduces yellow cards

I can't think of a single negative affect outside of "oh no this is different, shield my eyes" type of stuff.
Didier Drogba will trip over the invisible line and roll around on the ground for five minutes
Yeah, but what harm can one more invisible line do?

 
Guardian columnists Jonathan Wilson and Michael Cox do an early ranking of the 32 finalists including synopses

15. USA

23. Mexico

29. Costa Rica

31. Honduras

Evidently not CONCACAFans
That is a bit harsh but not too outrageous. Mexico is obviously the problem. 15 months ago, most of us would have put them neat the top 10. Their horrible year makes Concacaf look worse. I think someone is going to get a nasty surprise drawing Mexico in the group stage.

SPI rankings of Concacaf within the 32 squads is

US 15

CR 20

Mexico 23

Honduras 27

 
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This spray change has the following positive affects

1) speeds up the game

2) creates more chances at scoring on free kicks (since without the line, players encroach easily 1-2 yards before kick is taken)

3) reduces yellow cards

I can't think of a single negative affect outside of "oh no this is different, shield my eyes" type of stuff.
Didier Drogba will trip over the invisible line and roll around on the ground for five minutes
Yeah, but what harm can one more invisible line do?
We should get a fantasy game going over who will be the worst diver.

 
anyone else going to join Major in Brasil?
I wish! Do you already have your ticket package?

I can't even imagine the party down there. Brazilians party on rainy Mondays just cause. The WC is going to be a fantastic away from the stadiums.

 
anyone else going to join Major in Brasil?
I wish! Do you already have your ticket package?

I can't even imagine the party down there. Brazilians party on rainy Mondays just cause. The WC is going to be a fantastic away from the stadiums.
I used to live there and still have wimmenz/friends that'll take care of me so free shelter and local ticket prices #winning

 
Okay so we know that the draw is not very likely to be kind to the USA - but I was wondering what do we (and the other teams) really deserve?

So what I did is I took the 3 most notable rankings (FIFA, SPI, and ELO) and then put groups together, starting with the top seed and then snaking around - adhering to the FIFA requirements that no group have more than 2 UEFA teams in the same group and no more than 1 team from any confederation in the same group. In the case where I ran up against this requirement I dropped the team I was adding in question (which always seemed to be Ecuador) until the requirement was met (the exception in some scenarios was flipping Algeria and Australia, the last 2 teams in some methods, in order to meet the requirement. The FIFA rankings left a question of what to do with Brazil, which i ranked 11th in the October FIFA rankings. In one scenario I seeded them, but as #8 overall. In another I seeded them as #1 overall. In the 3rd I seeded them according to their FIFA rank. Since Brazil is #1 in both SPI and ELO, I did not need to do these alternate systems for those rankings. So without further adu...

I've also adjusted the groups assigned, b/c why not, based on seed. To split the groups up so that

1 would play 8, with winner gets 4 vs 5 winner and then 2 vs 7 and 3 v 6 on the other side, moving things around in such a way that Brazil is always in group A (I'll put the number of the seed in parentheses for reference)

Method 1 - Brazil gets seeded as the lowest top seed (8th) using FIFA rankings otherwise

Group A (8) - Brazil, Netherlands, Costa Rica, Algeria

Group B (1) - Spain, Bosnia, Cote D'Ivoire, Australia

Group C (4) - Colombia, USA, Russia, Iran

Group D (5) - Belgium, Chile, France, Japan

Group E (2) - Germany, Greece, Ecuador, Cameroon

Group F (7) - Switzerland, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria

Group G (3) - Argentina, Portugal, Croatia, S Korea

Group H (6) - Uruguay, England, Ghana, Honduras

Method 2 - Brazil gets seeded as the top overall seed using FIFA rankings otherwise

Group A (1) - Brazil, Bosnia, Cote D'Ivoire, Australia

Group B (8) - Switzerland, Netherlands, Costa Rica, Algeria

Group C (4) - Argentina, Portugal, Russia, Iran

Group D (5) - Colombia, USA, France, Japan

Group E (2) - Spain, Greece, Ecuador, Cameroon

Group F (7) - Uruguay, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria

Group G (3) - Germany, Chile, Croatia, S Korea

Group H (6) - Belgium, England, Ghana, Honduras

Method 3 - Brazil gets no seed consideration - FIFA rankings used for everyone

Group A (5) - Belgium, Brazil, Ghana, Honduras

Group B (4) - Colombia, Portugal, France, Iran

Group C (1) - Spain, Bosnia, Cote D'Ivoire, Australia

Group D (8) - Netherlands, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria

Group E (2) - Germany, Chile, Croatia, Cameroon

Group F (7) - Switzerland, England, Ecuador, Costa Rica

Group G (3) - Argentina, Greece, Russia, S Korea

Group H (6) - Uruguay, USA, Algeria, Japan

Method 4 - SPI Rankings (Brazil already ranked #1)

Group A (1) - Brazil, Russia, Portugal, Algeria

Group B (8) - Uruguay, Netherlands, Nigeria, Croatia

Group C (4) - Germany, Ecuador, Switzerland, Iran

Group D (5) - Chile, Italy, Ghana, S Korea

Group E (2) - Argentina, USA, Cote D'Ivoire, Australia

Group F (7) - France, England, Mexico, Japan

Group G (3) - Spain, Bosnia, Costa Rica, Cameroon

Group H (6) - Colombia, Belgium, Greece, Honduras

Method 5 - ELO Rankings (Brazil already ranked #1)

Group A (1) - Brazil, Greece, Belgium, Algeria

Group B (8) - Portugal, Uruguay, Iran, Nigeria

Group C (4) - Argentina, USA, Croatia, S Korea

Group D (5) - Netherlands, France, Mexico, Ghana

Group E (2) - Spain, Russia, Ecuador, Cameroon

Group F (7) - England, Chile, Japan, Costa Rica

Group G (3) - Germany, Switzerland, Cote D'Ivoire, Honduras

Group H (6) - Colombia, Italy, Bosnia, Australia

Two things I take away from this:

Every single one of these sets of groups cannot possibly happen for the USA. We really are getting a raw deal here.

As wack as people think the FIFA rankings are, it seems that ELO rankings are pretty wack as well. Australia ranked ahead of Ghana? Okay then.

Anyhow, figured I throw this into the conversation. It also can serve as a measuring stick when evaluating how each team fared in the draw :)

-QG

 
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What kinda sucks is that it really wouldn't be THAT hard for FIFA to do pots according to seed and then draw using the rules they drew up. But these is a little bit of a challenge in explaining what's going on and I'm sure they are afraid of that :)

-QG

 
If we stipulate that none of us want Brazil and everyone would want Switzerland as the top seed, how do you guys rank out the rest, factoring the location, in terms of the US?

Here are the other 6 seeds in no order

Spain, Argie, Germany, Uruguay, Colombia, and Belgium.

Since 1990, here are the various US records against each team:

Spain: 1 win, 4 losses

Argie: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses

Germany: 3 wins, 6 losses

Uruguay: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (have not played since 2002)

Colombia: 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses (2 draws were after being tied after extra time and lost in pk's. Fifa considers these draws)

Belgium: 0 wins, 4 losses

 
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Colombia

Spain

Uruguay

Belgium

Argentina

Germany

No deep thoughts, except that Germany is just so clinical and battle-tested that I'd never choose them. And that I think Spain is primed for a fall.

 
Colombia

Spain

Uruguay

Belgium

Argentina

Germany

No deep thoughts, except that Germany is just so clinical and battle-tested that I'd never choose them. And that I think Spain is primed for a fall.
Diego Costa at striker could give Spain the teeth that they've occasionally lacked since the last WC.

 
Klinsmann gives us no edge against Germany?

Colombia is a team with pressure without experience amd the '94 result would loom even larger if they faced us.

Belgium hasn't been on the big stage for a while. The fact of playingoff continent is a factor as well. They also are a side that would probably be vastly outnumbered by the US in terms of support in the stadium.

I put Germany next (jokes about Brazil being a 'home' game aside) as our histpry vs them in the big spot is not bad amd I think Klinsmann is a factor to the good for us.

Spain. Hard to put the holders here but off continent does it for me.

Uruguay has had their better form of late and the home continent edge should help (though perhaps the ghost of 1950 will lead the Brazilians to support us.

Argentina. A top squad close to home? Even with the tendency to start slow in group stages - no thanks.

-QG

 
Out of the Euro Pot (assuming France NOT in the pot).

1. Croatia. Worst form of the Euros in the qualifiers.

2. Bosnia. New to the stage and a team we can beat.

3. Greece. Another team that is of a quality we should beat.

4. Russia.

5. England.

6. Italy. Though they often can be had in the group stages.

7. Portugal. Colonial and culture links to Brazil make this the Euro team closest to a Euro team with a home away from home edge.

8. Holland. They are always tough in the group stages and should be a seed.

If France is in this pot (i.e. they make a 9-team Euro Pot I put them after Russia)

-QG

 
Presumed other pot.

1. Algeria. A cut below the rest here.

2. Ecuador. On the continent but a team that doesn't play as well outside its borders.

3. Cameroon.

4. Nigeria. Cameroon and Nigeria both are a cut below prior editions.

5. France. Brutal pot.

6. Cote d'Ivoire

7. Chile. Another tough team playingnot far from home.

8. Ghana. Duh

-QG

 
Colombia

Spain

Uruguay

Belgium

Argentina

Germany

No deep thoughts, except that Germany is just so clinical and battle-tested that I'd never choose them. And that I think Spain is primed for a fall.
Diego Costa at striker could give Spain the teeth that they've occasionally lacked since the last WC.
Maybe just break them into tiers...

Colombia (my first choice for sure)

Spain, Uruguay and Belgium (no strong feelings of one over the others)

Germany, Argentina (can see arguments for both)

 
I also believe that teams are going to kick the hell out of Neymar, unfortunately.
That's what I'd do :shrug:
Away from the general vicinity of the penalty area, I presume. :shrug:
Near the penalty area is where I have to worry about the near misses.

:flop:
You trip him at midfield, you have to worry about him stumbling all the way to the 18 before falling down.

 

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