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RB Kareem Hunt, CLE (2 Viewers)

I have a guy in my league that has been trying to buy Mixon or Cook off me all offseason. He just offered me this. I already know what I declining, but I want to see what you guys think since there is a lot of Hunt love

I give Gurley and Mixon

I get Hunt, 2018 1st (borderline playoffs team), Davante Adams and Perriman.


Really depends on your team, IMO.  Next year's draft looks to be loaded.  If you're more of a rebuilding team I might take the Hunt end of that deal.   If I think I'm headed to the playoffs this year and next I probably like the 2 RBs more.

 
I don't see Gurley & Mixon as a "modest package".  I see 2 potential multi-year stud RBs. 

I suppose value is up to interpretation.  
Mike Evans, who you wouldn't trade Hunt for, is worth 25 percent more than that package by himself. He also gets a 1st and Davante Adams in addition to Hunt. 

 
Stated perfectly 
Except you didn't say "quickly". You said sell high. There may be a high ceiling. Do you NEED to immediately deal him because the bottom is going to fall out? 

If so I'd like your crystal ball. I believe even with a modest performance, his value will increase. Why not wait a week and see if he receives a similar workload and get even more in return if you're bent on dealing him. 

 
Mike Evans, who you wouldn't trade Hunt for, is worth 25 percent more than that package by himself. He also gets a 1st and Davante Adams in addition to Hunt. 
So you make the trade. 

I wouldn't. 

And that's what makes FFB awesome. We can all value players differently. In this scenario, I wouldn't make that deal. In other scenarios I might. But msudaisy26 gave me his scenario, so I gave my response. Why are you all up in my business? They're all just like, opinions, maaaan. 

 
Except you didn't say "quickly". You said sell high. There may be a high ceiling. Do you NEED to immediately deal him because the bottom is going to fall out? 

If so I'd like your crystal ball. I believe even with a modest performance, his value will increase. Why not wait a week and see if he receives a similar workload and get even more in return if you're bent on dealing him. 
His value is going to increase beyond the most valuable fantasy layer in all of dynasty? Ok...  The point is that if you can get Mike Evans for him right now his value will never be higher.  It's already been explained to you twice.  I can't tell if you're just trolling now. 

 
So you make the trade. 

I wouldn't. 

And that's what makes FFB awesome. We can all value players differently. In this scenario, I wouldn't make that deal. In other scenarios I might. But msudaisy26 gave me his scenario, so I gave my response. Why are you all up in my business? They're all just like, opinions, maaaan. 
Your response makes zero sense, it contradicts what you said earlier about how valuable Hunt is.  You sir, are exasperating and I return your wishes of good luck. 

 
His value is going to increase beyond the most valuable fantasy layer in all of dynasty? Ok...  The point is that if you can get Mike Evans for him right now his value will never be higher.  It's already been explained to you twice.  I can't tell if you're just trolling now. 
I was wondering the same about you. :rolleyes:   Since I've never once trolled anyone on this forum, I suspect the latter. 

You don't need to explain anything twice, but thanks for the condescension. It's not my fault that you are unable to understand that both concepts can exist simultaneously. You can be correct about selling high after 1 game. And I can be correct that IF he has 1-2-3 more games with even modest output in a feature back role, that his value could, in fact, get even higher. 

So we'd both be right. Not difficult. Just not what you seem into at the moment. So I'll decline to engage you further. Good luck in your leagues this year. 

 
Thinking that Hunt's value can't possibly increase is pretty short sighted, don't you think? 
It could possibly increase... But it's near the ceiling if you can get Mike Evans for him...  How much higher can it get? Chances are about 1000 times higher that his value goes down from here.  I don't see how it goes up without another 45 point performance. 

 
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It could possibly increase... But it's near the ceiling I'd you can get Mike Evans for him...  How much higher can it get? Chances are about 1000 times higher that his value goes down from here.  I don't see how it goes up without another 45 point performance. 
You said I was contradicting when just a second ago you said "his value will never be higher"

So which is it - it will never be higher or it could possibly increase?  

:lol:  

 
His value is going to increase beyond the most valuable fantasy layer in all of dynasty? Ok...  The point is that if you can get Mike Evans for him right now his value will never be higher.  It's already been explained to you twice.  I can't tell if you're just trolling now. 
You'll be able to get Evans and David Johnson if you just wait a week or two.

Duh.  

 
You'll be able to get Evans and David Johnson if you just wait a week or two.

Duh.  
Oh right, how silly of me.  I would not take that trade if I had Hunt.  If I did have Hunt though, I wouldn't trade him for that cause I'd have to see the next 2 or 3 games. 

 
It could possibly increase... But it's near the ceiling I'd you can get Mike Evans for him...  How much higher can it get? Chances are about 1000 times higher that his value goes down from here.  I don't see how it goes up without another 45 point performance. 


Terrell Davis was a 6th round pick who got the start because of a special teams hit in preseason.  Priest Holmes was an UDFA who was dealt into a RBBC in KC.  How about DJ his rookie year.  They all turned into studs that you could build championships around.  Now how about you trade that away because you think they couldn't possibly get more valuable.

It happens.  Maybe this is the next great story in FF.  Maybe not.  But right now I don't see how anyone can be so certain about their position (either way)  that they feel the need to insult someone who disagrees.  You think that just sold him and made him as certain as you are that you're right?

 
You'll be able to get Evans and David Johnson if you just wait a week or two.

Duh.  
Maybe Evans breaks his leg. Then that deal is possible. 

But none of us have a crystal ball.  They's why Hunt could 

1. hold his value

2. increase in value

3. decrease in value 

I don't see why this is such a controversial POV here. A good (not awesome, not record-breaking, not awe-inspiring) performance might go a long way to winning over the people still skeptical of Hunt's ability. Right now there's a ton of folks saying "1-hit wonder" or "flash in the pan". 

And that's cool - they're entitled to that opinion.  But it limits the Hunt owner's trade possibilities and hinders Hunt's value. With even 1 good week against the Eagles, I think it opens the door to more potential trade partners which could lead to better trades.  

What if the Mike Evans owner is among those skeptical of Hunt's long-terms value? Holding Hunt could help his value. I don't understand the hate I'm getting for that view. Seems sensible. 

 
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Terrell Davis was a 6th round pick who got the start because of a special teams hit in preseason.  Priest Holmes was an UDFA who was dealt into a RBBC in KC.  How about DJ his rookie year.  They all turned into studs that you could build championships around.  Now how about you trade that away because you think they couldn't possibly get more valuable.
How'd Tom Brady's career work out for a 7th round pick after Bledsoe got speared in the chest? 

It happens.  Maybe this is the next great story in FF.  Maybe not.  But right now I don't see how anyone can be so certain about their position (either way)  that they feel the need to insult someone who disagrees.  You think that just sold him and made him as certain as you are that you're right?
:yes:  

 
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Terrell Davis was a 6th round pick who got the start because of a special teams hit in preseason.  Priest Holmes was an UDFA who was dealt into a RBBC in KC.  How about DJ his rookie year.  They all turned into studs that you could build championships around.  Now how about you trade that away because you think they couldn't possibly get more valuable.

It happens.  Maybe this is the next great story in FF.  Maybe not.  But right now I don't see how anyone can be so certain about their position (either way)  that they feel the need to insult someone who disagrees.  You think that just sold him and made him as certain as you are that you're right?
You're missing the point.  IF he is already the most valuable player in fantasy, which others seemed to be saying, then no, he really is highly unlikely to get any more valuable than that.  I honestly don't see what any of the players you listed have to do with this.  None of those guys had a 45 point first game and could then be traded for any other player in Dynasty.  If he doesn't go nuts again next week, his value plummets.  That is my point. 

 
Funny how everyone seems to be missing the point except Kittenmittens. :rolleyes:  

You're missing the point.  IF he is already the most valuable player in fantasy, which others seemed to be saying, then no, he really is highly unlikely to get any more valuable than that.  I honestly don't see what any of the players you listed have to do with this.  None of those guys had a 45 point first game and could then be traded for any other player in Dynasty.  If he doesn't go nuts again next week, his value plummets.  That is my point. 
And my point is that on that point you may be wrong. He can in fact increase his value simply by showing stability, without a monster game, thereby cementing in people's minds that he has a feature back role.  Which I've patiently attempted to explain a few times now, without once personally attacking you.

No one (at least not me) said he was "the most valuable player in fantasy". You keep projecting things like that, which is in fact a "false premise" fallacy

Have a nice day. 

 
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You're missing the point.  IF he is already the most valuable player in fantasy, which others seemed to be saying, then no, he really is highly unlikely to get any more valuable than that.  I honestly don't see what any of the players you listed have to do with this.  None of those guys had a 45 point first game and could then be traded for any other player in Dynasty.  If he doesn't go nuts again next week, his value plummets.  That is my point. 


Stop telling me I don't understand you.  I do.  I disagree.  So feel free to start insulting me too. Maybe you'll win me over.

 
Stop telling me I don't understand you.  I do.  I disagree.  So feel free to start insulting me too. Maybe you'll win me over.
I think we are talking past each other, but I don't feel like you're intentionally misunderstanding me for the purpose of provoking me.  You feel that Hunt's value can still get higher, from a point where some people won't trade him for David Johnson or Mike Evans right now? I'm not sure I can see the ways in which that might play out. I'm honestly confused by this...  since a player could possibly be the next great story in FF after 1 game, we can't trade him for somebody that already IS the great story in FF and about the same age?  If Mike Evans and Kareem Hunt both score 0 points next week, who loses more value? 

 
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Saying his value can't increase is incredibly naive.  The Evans comparison is a non-starter because no one is getting Evans for him right now (and Hot Sauce Guy already said he was referring to redraft when he mentioned Evans if I recall, not dynasty).

Speaking to dynasty, his value can increase from what Arian Foster's was after his first big game (basically where Hunt sits right now) to what Arian Foster's was after his first big season (IE a top 3 dynasty player).  Realistically there are only a handful of really sure-fire studs and Hunt is not returning any of them in a trade right now.  The guys you can swap Hunt for all have risks of their own and are just as likely to end up a huge bust going forward as Hunt is.

Sure, you can sell high and get some good value for him right now and maybe that's the right play, but the idea that his value can't increase is asinine.  Every decently good game he has, just good, not even great, his value will increase as people begin to believe more and more that he's the real deal.

 
Saying his value can't increase is incredibly naive.  The Evans comparison is a non-starter because no one is getting Evans for him right now (and Hot Sauce Guy already said he was referring to redraft when he mentioned Evans if I recall, not dynasty).

Speaking to dynasty, his value can increase from what Arian Foster's was after his first big game (basically where Hunt sits right now) to what Arian Foster's was after his first big season (IE a top 3 dynasty player).  Realistically there are only a handful of really sure-fire studs and Hunt is not returning any of them in a trade right now.  The guys you can swap Hunt for all have risks of their own and are just as likely to end up a huge bust going forward as Hunt is.

Sure, you can sell high and get some good value for him right now and maybe that's the right play, but the idea that his value can't increase is asinine.  Every decently good game he has, just good, not even great, his value will increase as people begin to believe more and more that he's the real deal.
Thanks for taking us back to reality.  Sorry that I got a little wrapped up in the hyperbole. I shouldn't have taken the bait. His value isn't at Mike Evans or David Johnson levels and if you can get that you obviously take it - but you can't.  Also obvious is that if you can't already trade him for a top 5 dynasty player, then his value can certainly get higher.

Hsg did say he was thinking redraft but even when thinking dynasty still wouldn't do that trade... Probably just a hot take tho... 

 
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Thanks for taking us back to reality.  Sorry that I got a little wrapped up in the hyperbole. I shouldn't have taken the bait.
:rolleyes:  

The only "bait" was you not reading what others were saying and lobbing personal attacks instead of rationally discussing a subject with not one, but two different people. We all could have been on the same page and had a nice little chat, but you took the combative approach. So hey, good luck with that narrative and please do continue insulting us by insinuating we're somehow "baiting" you (when you came into this topic after us to respond to our posts).  

And @FreeBaGeL "took us back to reality" by essentially making the same point that I've been trying to make. That, (and I quote), "Every decently good game he has, just good, not even great, his value will increase as people begin to believe more and more that he's the real deal." which sounds an awful lot like what I said, "A good (not awesome, not record-breaking, not awe-inspiring) performance might go a long way to winning over the people still skeptical of Hunt's ability. Right now there's a ton of folks saying "1-hit wonder" or "flash in the pan". " and "He can in fact increase his value simply by showing stability, without a monster game, thereby cementing in people's minds that he has a feature back role."

But he took it back to reality. Right. Amazing. 

His value isn't at Mike Evans or David Johnson levels and if you can get that you obviously take it - but you can't.  
For the Nth time, I specifically said I wouldn't trade him for anyone not named David Johnson or Bell, but you didn't read that  You only read what you wanted to see whether I said it or not. 

Also obvious is that if you can't trade him for a top 5 dynasty pick, then his value can certainly get higher. 
Wow - great to see that you came around to my point & you now see that his value can in fact get higher. What a crazy turn of events.

What a weird night. Is it a full moon out?  

 
Unless he is a future Hall of Fame player, his value is likely to go down.  This is likely the high water mark. Of course, he could be the next ADP, but I doubt it. Because there are not many of those guys.

 
Unless he is a future Hall of Fame player, his value is likely to go down.  This is likely the high water mark. Of course, he could be the next ADP, but I doubt it. Because there are not many of those guys.
"Future HOF" is kind of a silly premise. Not many active players will be HOF. That doesn't seem relevant to his value rising or falling in his rookie season. 

That's possible that this is the high water mark. But as I and other have said, it's also possible that his value could be solidified with a couple of good performances. 

He may not be the next AP. He may not even be the next Westbrook. But then, neither might anyone else at RB after DJ or Bell. And he's in a pretty sweet situation. 

With consistency and as more people are confident in his usage, it may open the door to trades beyond what a single performance would. 

Right now people who own him seem to love him & people who don't seem skeptical. So his value isn't at peak in everyone's eyes. And when talking trade value it seems Hunt's could be improved. 

whatever the result, if he gets 15-18 carries and 3-5 receptions next game, he's going to be established as a feature back in a run-first offense. There are only a few of those around & they tend to be very very valuable. 

Personally, I'd have a hard time dealing him now that I've seen his upside (and because I went WR heavy and need the RB). But I understand why some teams would want to sell high, address deficiencies at other positions if they're particularly deep at RB  & have Hunt. 

Its possible that waiting another game helps more than it hurts. 

And yes, it's possible he has a miserable game, and the window closes. Though I suspect that's a slim chance given his ability & workload. 

 
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zoonation said:
So, you taking the over or the under on 1300 total yards and 10 TDs?

The kid needs to get injured not to be an RB1 at this point.  
He has a hell of a head start.  :)

Just using average numbers because of the unknown had him projected for just shy of 1300 total yards. 

He only needs 1055 yards over 15 games to exceed 1300 by the end of the season. 

Still using the projection of 80 combined yards per game X 15 = 1200 yards.

Based on his first game it seems likely that his end of year stats such as yards per carry and yards per reception will be higher than the average numbers I used. One game obviously not enough information to extrapolate from.

 
I have a guy in my league that has been trying to buy Mixon or Cook off me all offseason. He just offered me this. I already know what I declining, but I want to see what you guys think since there is a lot of Hunt love

I give Gurley and Mixon

I get Hunt, 2018 1st (borderline playoffs team), Davante Adams and Perriman.
Its not a terrible offer.

Two very good RB for only one is an area where I can see turning it down. Adams is a productive receiver that somewhat balances that out and then the 1st round pick offers some value.

If it were a WR besides Adams I might like the deal a bit more. Hard to give up two good RB in a trade though. How the rest of the roster is constructed, league rules and how the rest of your team looked would be part of the decision as well. This trade weakens RB depth for your team and hard to be set enough at that position this early in the season.

 
I think we are talking past each other, but I don't feel like you're intentionally misunderstanding me for the purpose of provoking me.  You feel that Hunt's value can still get higher, from a point where some people won't trade him for David Johnson or Mike Evans right now? I'm not sure I can see the ways in which that might play out. I'm honestly confused by this...  since a player could possibly be the next great story in FF after 1 game, we can't trade him for somebody that already IS the great story in FF and about the same age?  If Mike Evans and Kareem Hunt both score 0 points next week, who loses more value? 


No, I think you're overestimating his value.  Who is trading Hunt for DJ straight up?  Show me one instance of that.  Evans?  That's possible I guess.  I'd like to see one of those trades too first to confirm that.  There are currently 227 recent real redrafts on record at mfl, and the very highest Hunt has gone is 1.09 - in 227 drafts, including any that were held yesterday.  So I think you're speaking from a position of hypotheticals and flawed assumptions.  And you continue to do so throughout your argument.

If Hunt is in tier 1 (unlikely but possible) of RBs or in tier 2 of RBs (sure looks like a possibility right now) he has greater value than WR5/6.  That's where the gamble is IMO.  If you are certain he falls into tier 3 or lower of RBs then yes you should trade him for a WR5/6.  But what if you're wrong and he is a tier 2 RB?  Then you just lost that trade, all other things being equal.  And if he is a tier 1 guy?  Well, you may have just traded yourself out of your team's cornerstone player.  If you have that guy, you don't trade him.  You can't replace that.

That's where our disagreement is.  If anyone here is overvaluing Hunt, it would be you, and only because it allows you to make what I believe is a flawed argument.  The disparagement on a personal level doesn't help either.

.

 
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Sooooo, yeah ...... hmmmmm, I freaking sat Hunt on Thursday ..... I hope this is not a sign of how my season will go.  :wall:
I was gonna be a "wait & see" on Hunt until the hurricane caused me to bench my flex play Parker.  :unsure:

i may well have committed sepiku if I'd left that performance for the ages on my bench.  I'm impressed by your positive attitude. You're an inspiration. 

:yes:  

 
No, I think you're overestimating his value.  Who is trading Hunt for DJ straight up?  Show me one instance of that.  Evans?  That's possible I guess.  I'd like to see one of those trades too first to confirm that.  There are currently 227 recent real redrafts on record at mfl, and the very highest Hunt has gone is 1.09 - in 227 drafts, including any that were held yesterday.  So I think you're speaking from a position of hypotheticals and flawed assumptions.  And you continue to do so throughout your argument 
I think you should reread HSGs post about how he wouldn't trade him for anyone not named Bell or DJ.  Then reread my post about how I shouldn't have reacted to that.  We don't even disagree because I don't think he's close to worth Evans.  This whole thread went off the rails a while ago because I engaged in a stupid pissing match and I apologize.  Never wrestle a pig.

 
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I think you should reread HSGs post about how he wouldn't trade him for anyone not named Bell or DJ.  Then reread my post about how I shouldn't have reacted to that.  We don't even disagree because I don't think he's close to worth Evans.  This whole thread went off the rails a while ago because I engaged in a stupid pissing match and I apologize.  Never wrestle a pig.


He likes long shots.  They are at long odds for a reason.  But they do come in occassionally, and when they do they pay off big time.  That doesn't make him the cretin that you make him out to be, only that he has a very different opinion than you do.  Isn't that okay?  And now you apologize and immediately afterwards take another cheap shot.  If you want to figure out why this went off the rails, find a mirror.

 
I wish hunt all the luck in the world but all i see when watching the opener is extremely bad defense and wide open lanes. Im curious to see how the rest of his season plays out.

 
I wish hunt all the luck in the world but all i see when watching the opener is extremely bad defense and wide open lanes. Im curious to see how the rest of his season plays out.
 I saw a determined runner who had great vision to see the hole, and subtle shiftiness that made defenders miss.also good power & will, turning a few runs that should have been negative into short gains. Also as smooth of a receiving RB as I've ever seen & ive been watching the NFL for 40 years. 

we all see the world through our own lens though. There's a link a page or two back with every Hunt play from the game - might be worth revisiting. 

 
I wish hunt all the luck in the world but all i see when watching the opener is extremely bad defense and wide open lanes. Im curious to see how the rest of his season plays out.
Stiff arms a 330lb dude: http://i.imgur.com/rqK7gcY.gif

Runs over a top 5 NFL safety: http://i.imgur.com/AV6pT2W.gif

There's another one when he completely jukes a guy out of his cleats, but I can't find it. They didn't play great D, but this kid has legit talent. And besides, like I said before, not many teams in the NFL play good D these days. That's just the way it is. The Chiefs play the Broncos twice. The Texans I guess. I mean, other than that, there isn't a team where I say, "oh this is gonna be a tough week for Kareem." 

 
Don't forget West went for 21 yards and a TD in his only carry. It wasn't all Hunt. Patriots were terrible. Just sayin
That was deep into the game when the Pats lost Hightower and looked completely gassed.

1 carry is a pretty small sample size. Pats played better defense in the 1st half & Hunt was putting up positive yards every touch. Even the first he went for 9 before coughing it up. 

 
Stiff arms a 330lb dude: http://i.imgur.com/rqK7gcY.gif

Runs over a top 5 NFL safety: http://i.imgur.com/AV6pT2W.gif

There's another one when he completely jukes a guy out of his cleats, but I can't find it. They didn't play great D, but this kid has legit talent. And besides, like I said before, not many teams in the NFL play good D these days. That's just the way it is. The Chiefs play the Broncos twice. The Texans I guess. I mean, other than that, there isn't a team where I say, "oh this is gonna be a tough week for Kareem." 
Really looking forward to 2 against the Raiders. 

 
So you obviously are just trolling. welcome to ignore. I take back wishes of luck and I hope your teams all go 2-14 this year. ;)  
1. You're saying you hope all his teams make it to week 16 (fantasy championship)
2. His teams could go 0-14, but win a wild card spot as total points winner (really bad luck each week)
3. He wins two games in the playoffs to take the title. 

Optimism!!!

 

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