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Top 5 Dyno (Each Position) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter False Start
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I personally have Marshall listed at 7 at WR, Jeffery certainly looks the part, and who knows how the bears pecking orderworks out near term, but cutler feeds Marshall a steady diet
cusefan115
Footballguy
Yeah thats fair. I guess, I just figured at age thirty a guy like Marshall wouldn't be making the jump up into that first tier. Whereas Jeffery might still be on the upswing rankings wise.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I would agree with all of this 100% except I wouldn't include Gordon in the top WR tier.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I agree with their being less stud fantasy backs but some of your examples are horrible and you are using hindsight. Yes McCoy had a top 3 season but is it any different then Martin, Lacy, Bernard, or Bell. Not really they all put up running back 1 numbers for 1 season. The same can be said for McFadden, Stewart, and Foster.Concept Coop said:
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
If it's a list of "who I'd consider paying cornerstone value to acquire," yeah, I agree -- QB is too deep to pay a ton for anyone.
If it's "top tier guys at each position" he belongs IMO.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
T. Rex
Stegatron
Velociraptor
Ankleosoreus
Capybara
Stegatron
Velociraptor
Ankleosoreus
Capybara
False Start
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It's impossible not to use hindsight; that's the exercise. We don't have to agree on how Lacy, Gio, Bell and Martin stack up. That's fine.
But, again--and I'm too lazy to find it myself--the work has been done by SSOG in the Dynasty Rankings Thread. The baseline age of above baseline RB production is more than a year older than it was 2-3 years ago. That is a fact. Remove the names and it's a lot easier to have the conversation.
There are 2 RBs I would use a first round pick on in a standard PPR startup. The number has never been that low for me. Yes: It's only my opinion. Disagree and have your own, and that's fine. But because 2014 Martin = 2011 McCoy to you, doesn't mean that holds true for me.
cstu
Footballguy
I like a 23 yo Lacy in the top 5 a helluva lot more than a 25 yo Doug Martin.Concept Coop said:
Right now I think there are three backs in Tier 1: McCoy, Charles and Bernard
After that you've got the older studs (AP (29), Forte (28)) and younger guys (Lacy (23), Martin (25), Bell (22).
Last year Lacy looked better than Martin and he's two years younger, unsure why anyone would want Martin over him.
thurston4040
Footballguy
QB
Rodgers
Newton
Brees
Luck
Stafford
RB
Charles
McCoy
Peterson
Lacy
Martin
WR
Green
Calvin
Julio
Thomas
Gordon
TE
Graham
Gronk
Cameron
Thomas
Davis
Rodgers
Newton
Brees
Luck
Stafford
RB
Charles
McCoy
Peterson
Lacy
Martin
WR
Green
Calvin
Julio
Thomas
Gordon
TE
Graham
Gronk
Cameron
Thomas
Davis
TheGreatSpinks
Footballguy
Rodgers
Newton
Brees
Luck
Griffin
McCoy
Charles
Lacy
Bernard
Martin
Gordon
Demaryius
Julio
Bryant
Green
Graham
Gronkowski
Cameron
Davis
Rudolph
Newton
Brees
Luck
Griffin
McCoy
Charles
Lacy
Bernard
Martin
Gordon
Demaryius
Julio
Bryant
Green
Graham
Gronkowski
Cameron
Davis
Rudolph
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Oops wrong thread.
Qb
Rodgers
Luck
Newton
Stafford
RG3
Rb
Peterson
McCoy
Charles
Spiller
Bernard
Wr
Mega
DT
Green
Jones
Gordon
Te
Graham
Davis
Gronkowski
The remaining Te I consider all to be in a similar tier until about Te 14 or so, each with their own pros/cons. So Allen and Olsen to go with my top 5 QB I guess, but there are many others I like about as well.
TheGreatSpinks
Footballguy
His doctor that performed the surgery said that the toe fusion wasn't the type that is degenerative.
Most dynasty leaguers work in three year windows, Ray Rice was a stud for 4 straight then fell off a cliff after absurd usage.
thatguy
Footballguy
As the season draws near, I think we'll begin to see Harvin's name come up a lot as a fringe top 5 dynasty WR. In the Super Bowl he barely scratched the surface of what he can bring to that team when healthy. With a full healthy off-season to gel with Wilson, I think Harvin will edge Lynch out and become the new centerpiece of Seattle's offense. Put another way, Lynch won't be keeping opposing defensive and special teams coordinators up at night. Harvin will. It's scary how good Seattle could be this season.
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thatguy
Footballguy
My list:
Rodgers
Manning
Brees
Cam
Wilson
Bargain: Ryan, Rivers, Brady
Charles
Shady
AP
Gio
Lacy
Bargain: Moreno, Ball, Ellington
Calvin
Green
D. Thomas
Dez
Gordon
Bargain: Harvin (but not for long), Hunter, Woods
Graham
Gronk
Julius
Cameron
Reed
Bargain: Kelce
Rodgers
Manning
Brees
Cam
Wilson
Bargain: Ryan, Rivers, Brady
Charles
Shady
AP
Gio
Lacy
Bargain: Moreno, Ball, Ellington
Calvin
Green
D. Thomas
Dez
Gordon
Bargain: Harvin (but not for long), Hunter, Woods
Graham
Gronk
Julius
Cameron
Reed
Bargain: Kelce
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EBF
Footballguy
Yea, I like this list and agree with most of the names. I think there are a few fringe guys/prospects out there who have the potential to make the leap within a year or two:
Luck
Newton
Foles?
Martin
Gio?
Michael?
Jeffery
Patterson
Hunter?
Watkins?
Floyd?
Cameron
Eifert?
Can't remember the last time when the RB landscape was this awful. Virtually nobody out there with a great combination of talent and youth. I've taken some heat for pushing Michael, but given how poor the other options are I don't think it's a big stretch to consider him as a high end RB2. Unless I took a guy like McCoy or Martin high, I have a feeling I wouldn't draft a RB until the 4th-5th round of a startup draft. Just no value out there whatsoever. Top guys getting old. Young guys overvalued.
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
False Start
Footballguy
salmonstud
Footballguy
Gordon kind of did this year - played 1 less game than Megatron & outscored him with 2 different scrub QB's throwing to him.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I can't believe people are putting Peyton on the list. What are the odds of him repeating that season? What are the odds of him playing 2 more years? Some reason people will pay top 5 quarterback prices for him. Baffles me.
squistion
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
i don't believe that, especially at QB/WR. not valuing past 3 years at the QB/WR position is a huge leak, the elite players at those positions have 10+ year careers.
hooptd
Footballguy
Gandalf
Footballguy
My list looks a lot like JohnnyU's
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Colin Kaepernick (yep ahead of Newton)
Cam Newton
Mattthew Stafford
Jamaal Charles (worried about age abut too much production)
LeSean McCoy
Doug Martin (my comeback player of 2014)
Eddie Lacy (I am still worried about the toe)
Gio Bernard
Calvin Johnson
AJ Green
DeMaryius Thomas (should be fine even without Manning)
Josh Gordon (I believe)
Dez Bryant
Jimmy Graham
Julius Thomas
Jordan Cameron
Rob Gronkowski (injuries will cost him most years)
I also anticipate that there will be a rookie RB, WR and TE cracking into the top 5 of these positions this time next season.
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Colin Kaepernick (yep ahead of Newton)
Cam Newton
Mattthew Stafford
Jamaal Charles (worried about age abut too much production)
LeSean McCoy
Doug Martin (my comeback player of 2014)
Eddie Lacy (I am still worried about the toe)
Gio Bernard
Calvin Johnson
AJ Green
DeMaryius Thomas (should be fine even without Manning)
Josh Gordon (I believe)
Dez Bryant
Jimmy Graham
Julius Thomas
Jordan Cameron
Rob Gronkowski (injuries will cost him most years)
I also anticipate that there will be a rookie RB, WR and TE cracking into the top 5 of these positions this time next season.
Shutout
Footballguy
Since these lists are starting to get a bit standardized, I'll open up the pandora box question for debate.
How does AP get a top 5 ranking in dyno at his age? Not saying he won't easily justify it but you don't often see universal love for a high-mileage 28 year old RB. Rice and Foster are a year and two years younger and have comparable if not better 3 year windows and they don't sniff the list.
I'm not saying give either of these guys his spot but I do think its worth noting we are talking about RBs here where age is King. Why aren't we talking about Spiller, Martin, Leveon Bell, Gio, and the young flashy guys that arguably, in dyno, will have about 304 more years than Peterson?
How does AP get a top 5 ranking in dyno at his age? Not saying he won't easily justify it but you don't often see universal love for a high-mileage 28 year old RB. Rice and Foster are a year and two years younger and have comparable if not better 3 year windows and they don't sniff the list.
I'm not saying give either of these guys his spot but I do think its worth noting we are talking about RBs here where age is King. Why aren't we talking about Spiller, Martin, Leveon Bell, Gio, and the young flashy guys that arguably, in dyno, will have about 304 more years than Peterson?
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
Did you see Rice play last year?
Foster seems to be breaking down even though he's younger while Peterson seems superhuman.
Spiller is also only two years younger than AP and is inconsistent as they come.
Martin is four years younger but didn't look good last year.
I'm not a believer in Bell even though he has age on his side.
IMO Lacy should be ranked ahead of AP because he's in a good offense, played well as a rookie and is six years younger.
A case can be made that Gio is the #1 dynasty back.
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Terpman22
Footballguy
B/c he is an exception. If we can see Curtis Martin play forever as a plodder, and we see AP come back and damn near break the single season yardage record less than a year after shredding his ACL, we kind of build in the fact we expect him to produce into his 30's. The true greats offer exceptions to many rules.
Shutout
Footballguy
I knew this would be the type of answer to this question. Honestly, I expected someone to just say "cause he's AP..duh!" I think we ALL get that he is different and special. However, this, to me, is a trap IF we are just simply talking about VALUES of DYNASTY RBS because father time loses to no one and Peterson has had a tremendous workload (people crucify Foster and Rice for this heavy workload over the past few seasons and readily point to it as the reason when they had a down year but Peterson had every bit as much of a three year workload and it NEVER gets mentioned). Coming off a special year in 2012, people had Peterson hyped beyond comparison and while he was still a safe pick and produced, he certainly...predictably...wasn't that Alpha-Omega of Rbs last year.
And that's my point here. We can clearly see why we laud Peterson but we aren't realistic if we think a heavy-worked Rb going on 29 has more DYNASTY VALUE than 23-25 year olds that, themselves, have been very highly touted. I'm not a Spiller fan by any means so you won't see me on here hyping him up BUT when you look at a guy like him, at his age, and with his speed, and then you read what SO MANY people were hyping him up to be, you just have to know that the dynasty value of a guy like Spiller ranks higher than Peterson. This season, live in the now...sure. But as early as 10 months from now, this is going to be a very different discussion when you are trying to trade for or sell these guys.
That's all I'm saying. This looks more like a redraft list on the RB side because I guarantee you that in as little as two years, its a better than 50% chance that there will be a handful of Rbs with much more dynasty value than Peterson.
Banger
Footballguy
What's more valuable 2 years as possibly the top back in the league and then flaming out or 2-3 years of possible RB10-20+ production. I would go for the elite production vs. longer solid production (although I don't think your two examples provide that). I happen to feel that both Foster and Rice are on the Shaun Alexander ascent to irrelevance and wouldn't touch either in a dyno draft until way, way, way later (at which point someone would've long snagged them). I'd rather have Ryan Matthews than either of those guys (and I don't love him).
Surprised I haven't seen any L. Bell's or Demarco Murray's. I think I'd definitely take either of those guys over Doug Martin at this point. Basically, all this proves to me is that I really hate dyno RBs now and it's a total crapshoot and they are overvalued. I'd value the top wr's much higher than I'd value the top RBs with maybe the exception of McCoy and Charles. I just don't see a lot of those other guys are surefire year in, year out guys and if I'm building a long term team I want those guys that will be there.
I've completely retooled my 5 player keeper team and will have some tough decisions to make but I have Cobb, AJ Green, Gordon, Keenan Allen and Gronk as my studs. I won the league this year with RBs of Gore, Ellington, Vereen, Chris Johnson and a QB of R. Wilson. The league is a passing league and WRs have much more week to week consistency and fewer injuries.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Shutout you ask a very good question in regards to the long term prospects of a RB maybe making those players more valuable in the long run.
I have been saying for awhile now (after about 20 years of trial and error leading to this conclusion) that for the RB position it just isn't worthwhile expecting any RB to have another 2-3 years of elite performance just because of being a little younger than another guy.
It is worth considering at the WR, QB and TE positions, as those players do not seem to fall off the cliff in the same way that it happens with RB. So that is a difference in ranking philosophy for the RB position.
I think your question is a good one and a good discussion to have. The example you chose of Peterson is going to be very hard to get a rational and even argument about however, because it is ALL DAY Adrian MF Peterson!! The best RB since LT and a RB who gets respect from all of the GOATs including Jim Brown. The guy is very very special.
Here is what I wrote about Peterson for the spotlight last season - http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=682773&hl=%2Bpeterson+%2Bspotlight
Now with Norv Turner as his coach??
Eric Dickerson's record is not safe. Long term Emmitt Smiths record is not safe.
That is why I have him ranked number one.
As far as historical evidence of RB decline at age 30. That is pretty well documented although I think that age land mark is a moving target.
I have been saying for awhile now (after about 20 years of trial and error leading to this conclusion) that for the RB position it just isn't worthwhile expecting any RB to have another 2-3 years of elite performance just because of being a little younger than another guy.
It is worth considering at the WR, QB and TE positions, as those players do not seem to fall off the cliff in the same way that it happens with RB. So that is a difference in ranking philosophy for the RB position.
I think your question is a good one and a good discussion to have. The example you chose of Peterson is going to be very hard to get a rational and even argument about however, because it is ALL DAY Adrian MF Peterson!! The best RB since LT and a RB who gets respect from all of the GOATs including Jim Brown. The guy is very very special.
Here is what I wrote about Peterson for the spotlight last season - http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=682773&hl=%2Bpeterson+%2Bspotlight
Now with Norv Turner as his coach??
Eric Dickerson's record is not safe. Long term Emmitt Smiths record is not safe.
That is why I have him ranked number one.
As far as historical evidence of RB decline at age 30. That is pretty well documented although I think that age land mark is a moving target.
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Terpman22
Footballguy
Nice points, but I am not in the "flipping" business in dynasty as much as some. I have traded "over the hill" guys 2-3 years too early in leagues before. Favre, Gonzolez, Wayne...etc. Looking at a lot of these lists, they are populated with names like Gio, Lacy, Spiller as top 5 dynasty backs. Lists in the past almost certainly include guys like Slaton, McGahee, maybe even Willie Parker and Rueen Droughns..lol. You need to finish in the top 5 at your position once before you make it into the top 5 dynasty values. At least for me you do. This is how he has finished in RB final rankings, since he was a rookie in 2007: #5, #9, #2, #5, #15, #1 and #10. The outlier here is when he tore his ACL. That is an average finish of between RB6-7 in all years and RB5-6 in non-tearing-ACL years. He did have Favre for 2 years, but only 1 was really that great. I will take the guarantee of a floor of Mid RB2 with upside to lead all backs. I want to see the trade of any of the aforementioned "Top 5" guys straight up for AP, that have less than 3 years in the league.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is a very good point. My strategy for a start up draft would be different than my overall ranking of all players in an already established league.
In a start up draft I am going to value youth a bit more because I am trying to build the foundation of a new team.
Once the league is established then I am going to focus more on who will help my team win NOW.
In a start up draft the players I would draft ahead of Peterson are:
Luck
Mega
DT
Green
Graham
Maybe Stafford or RG3 too but I dunno about that.
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Catbird
Footballguy
fightingillini
Footballguy
For me it's hard to list my top 5 at any position.
QB is so deep that, while I have Rodgers and Luck in the top 2, you can make an argument that Newton, Kaepernick, Wilson, Stafford, Brees (still should be great for another 3 years), and even Peyton if he's medically cleared....could be in your top 5. I probably would go Rodgers, Luck, Newton, Kaepernick and Brees in that order.
RB - McCoy, Charles, Bernard, Lacy, and Bell. AP, Forte and Martin are very close behind and you can make the argument that they should be top 5.
WR is the most difficult. I really see 7 elite dynasty WRs.....Calvin, AJ Green, Dez, D Thomas, Julio, Gordon, and Alshon Jeffery. I would leave out Gordon and Jeffery and make them 5b and 5c, and Julio 5a....Julio would be higher if not the injury concerns. Jeffery you might have to wait a couple of years before he's really elite, since Marshall is still there and it will be a true 1a/1b situation in CHI.
TE - it's Graham....................then Gronk..................and then I guess J Thomas, Cameron and Reed.
QB is so deep that, while I have Rodgers and Luck in the top 2, you can make an argument that Newton, Kaepernick, Wilson, Stafford, Brees (still should be great for another 3 years), and even Peyton if he's medically cleared....could be in your top 5. I probably would go Rodgers, Luck, Newton, Kaepernick and Brees in that order.
RB - McCoy, Charles, Bernard, Lacy, and Bell. AP, Forte and Martin are very close behind and you can make the argument that they should be top 5.
WR is the most difficult. I really see 7 elite dynasty WRs.....Calvin, AJ Green, Dez, D Thomas, Julio, Gordon, and Alshon Jeffery. I would leave out Gordon and Jeffery and make them 5b and 5c, and Julio 5a....Julio would be higher if not the injury concerns. Jeffery you might have to wait a couple of years before he's really elite, since Marshall is still there and it will be a true 1a/1b situation in CHI.
TE - it's Graham....................then Gronk..................and then I guess J Thomas, Cameron and Reed.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Hear what you are saying, and it is definitely a valid point of view. However, for me I will take the big difference maker super-stud in AP for the next 2-3 years over the slightly-moderately above average skillsets of some of the other younger guys, even with the knowledge that they will likely still be producing slightly above average numbers after AP is likely done. AP gives me a big advantage over most other teams at the RB1 position for at least 1-2 more years, likely 2-3. Those other guys give me a nice, mid-range (historically) commodity at RB for a few more years, but probably not a clear-cut advantage over every team without Shady or Charles - which I believe AP gives me. The guys after Shady/Charles give me a real nice piece to use toward a playoff run for 3-6 years. AP gives me a real nice piece toward a championship run for 1-3. I can see going either way, but personally give me AP for 1-3.
I also like the addition of Norv at OC. Banking that he will find a way to finally use AP more effectively in the passing game, which if so, could make him the RB1 this coming season.
On another note, while he does not currently belong on any of these top 5 lists, I bet Ladarius Green will be on them this time next year at TE.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
It feels like a bunch of people are over-estimating Adrian Pererson's production if we're talking about PPR formats. He typically hasn't been a lap the field type RB1 in the mold of prime Faulk, Holmes, or Tomlinson. Drafting one of those guys on a short window was one thing due to the absolutely crushing advantage they provided; drafting a short shelf life guy with baseline production in the RB3 - RB6 range is totally different, IMO.
Of course Norv Turner might change the equation re: Peterson's use in the passing game, and if so, Peterson might deliver the ridiculous totals he'd need to be worth top 5 startup value. But I don't know that I'd pull the trigger on a maybe like that at the very beginning of a draft personally.
Of course Norv Turner might change the equation re: Peterson's use in the passing game, and if so, Peterson might deliver the ridiculous totals he'd need to be worth top 5 startup value. But I don't know that I'd pull the trigger on a maybe like that at the very beginning of a draft personally.
False Start
Footballguy
Feels much like when people doubted him after his ACL injury. We all know he will get old sometime, but this guy has proven he isn't human. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result. People keep doubting ADP hoping he will fail, and still he doesn't. He has to show me the wheels will fall off before I believe it. This isn't just another guy and has a chance to break Emmitts record at only 8k away, he played 15 years and was strong until 33, AP is 28 and has played 7 years.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Interesting that you read my post and what you got out of it was that I'm doubting Peterson and that I hope he fails when I projected a RB3 - RB6 baseline moving forward.
I agree with your definition of insanity BTW -- Peterson's finish in PPR scoring since entering the league: RB5, RB9, RB2, RB5, RB15 (hurt), RB1, RB10 (missed 2 games). He's a generational talent in NFL terms, obviously, but in PPR FF he's typically been "just" a run of the mill RB1.
False Start
Footballguy
Peterson is just a run of the mill PPR RB1? Must of been a typo because you couldn't be serious.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The average RB1 finish is RB6. Without looking, I'd say that's pretty close to where AP has been finishing in PPR leagues over his career.
EDIT: CDL did do the work, and AP has been an average RB1.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Terpman22
Footballguy
The difference is he is the only guy that stays as an RB1. Other guys float from RB1 one year, to RB4, the next, back to RB2, then RB3....
