Week 16 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

[Loipz]

Bad weather, short week, on the road, against a good defense, low point total

Considering benching Trevor for Aaron Rodgers @ MIA?

Picked up Trevor as a stop gap for Deshaun and Lamar but and he’s been excellent, but so many things seem to be pointing towards sitting Trevor here. Slight favorite(and somehow facing the same QB dilemma in 2 leagues) in both, so a safer play would be ideal I’d think? (Rodgers)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Bad weather, short week, on the road, against a good defense, low point total

Considering benching Trevor for Aaron Rodgers @ MIA?

Picked up Trevor as a stop gap for Deshaun and Lamar but and he’s been excellent, but so many things seem to be pointing towards sitting Trevor here. Slight favorite(and somehow facing the same QB dilemma in 2 leagues) in both, so a safer play would be ideal I’d think? (Rodgers)

Also TLaw is reportedly dealing with a toe injury.

I don’t mind starting ARod over TLaw on a short week in bad weather with a hurt toe

 

[Chaka]

I have to start two of these (one must be WR) in a 0.5 PPR.

WR Slayton at MIN (leaning this as one right now)
WR AIyuk vs WAS (after last weeks clunker I have a hard time trusting anything here with Purdy playing it safe)
WR London at BALT (I don't think they can run on BALT but can Ridder throw it on them?)
RB Pacheco vs SEA (okay wish I had Mckinnon instead. McKinnon seems to get all the TDS and receptions and quite a bit of the rushing yards)
RB Wilson vs GB (before he got hurt - maybe Mostert was hurt at that time - he was doing really well. If he is active can he be trusted? I'll be playing Tua and TYreek so may be too many Dolphins anyway to add Wilson)

Might make a waiver wire claim for one of the IND rbs (but which one) or Goodwin (really think he could do well with Lockett out at KC)

Yeah, you have a bunch or risks that are almost impossible to predict.

The Packers are 30th in average yards/rush against (5.0 ypc), 27th in attempts against, 29th in total yards against and are tied for 24th in rush TDs allowed (15). It's a great matchup, I just wish I had even the remotest clue how Wilson will be deployed alongside Mostert.

Minnesota is 31st in receiving yards against, 28th in yards/reception against, 29th in receptions given up and tied for 20th in receiving TDs against (20). I am also more confident in Slayton's usage. The Giants are a low volume pass offense with only 414 attempts (27th) and Slayton seems to be good for around 6 targets/game with an upside around 8-9.

Aiyuk is probably the most talented option you have. The matchup isn't great and we should expect Shanahan to do everything he can to limit Purdy's exposure so, be prepared for around 25 attempts. I really like his talent and potential still but, it's definitely tougher.

London is one of two guys on this list that, IMO has the highest usage ceiling. Ridder locked in on him last week and I have no reason to think he will do anything different this week. Who else is he going to throw to? IIRC Marcus Peters is out as well, which helps London. I am not sure he has massive upside, I would call it unknown upside but it seems he may have a safe floor with potential.

Man was I excited about Pacheco a few weeks ago. Now, it's a little tougher but I still like him. The good news is his touches seem rock steady and you can anticipate 15 looks this week. The bad news is in close games he cedes a lot of snaps to McKinnon. What I really like about him this week is the matchup could not be any better. The Seahawks are the #31 rush defense and they have been particularly bad over their last five games (161 @ TB, 283 v LVR, 171 @ LAR, 223 v CAR & 170 v SF). I know McKinnon is a big concern but things are lining up very well for Pacheco.

Pacheco>London>Aiyuk>Slayton>Wilson

 

[Chaka]

Special holiday 1st round playoff "pick your poison" question!

I know who I'm starting, but as the 1-seed, I'm having a hard time deciding on an opponent for week 1 (1-seed chooses their playoff opponent).

It's IDP, but I'll make it easy by just posting the offenses. 12-team, PPR, 6 points all TDs, Ru/Re bonus 2 at 100+, Pa bonus of 2 at 300+, .1/1st down, .1 for every 5 completions.

Should I face:
Team 1 (wildcard):
QB - Hurts (no backup - WW of Minshew, ZWilson, Pickett, Mac Jones)
RB - Kamara/Sanders
WR - ARSB/Godwin/Zay Jones
TE - Andrews
O-FLX - London

Team 2 - 3-seed, coming in on a cold streak):
QB - Allen (Burrow)
RB - Montgomery/R. White
WR - Tyreek/Hopkins/D.Adams
TE - Waller
O-FLX - Chark

Team 3 (2-seed, on a hot streak):
QB - Cousins (Purdy)
RB - Ekeler/Jacobs (J.Wilson)
WR - AJBrown/Aiyuk/Metcalf
TE - Okonkwo
O-FLX - KJO

Assuming no waiver claims change these lineups, which would you rather face?

At first I thought the WC was the obvious - bad matchups (at Dallas for Sanders, London with a rookie QB, Zay Jones at the Jets) and potentially losing Hurts (but has waiver priority to get Minshew, or one of the other scrubs) and some weather.

But the 2-seed (3rd highest scoring team) has *both* QBs in bad weather/tough matchups (at PIT, and at Pats), White's production limited by a suddenly healthy Fournette, Waller and Adams in potentially awful conditions, DHop without Kyler.

The 2-seed has great RBs, and I'm not convinced they stick with KJO at flex if Wilson is good to go. His WRs scare me a little, as Metcalf at KC is kind of a jackpot start, and Aiyuk any given sunday....AJBrown is seemingly hurt by Hurts absence, but probably not a ton since Minshew can get the ball out - DAL pass rush is still a tough matchup, playing angry off a bad loss.

IDP is a weekly crap shoot. All 4 playoff teams have strong IDP options. Also, I have Justin Jefferson, & Tee Higgins, so potentially the primary receivers for 2 of the opponents. if that matters (and if team 2 starts Burrow over Allen, which I doubt).

I have until Thursday at Noon PT to decide. Any/All feedback welcome.

Team 1

 

[Chaka]

Hurts is hurt, so in a 4-point passing and 6-point running league, would you start:
Minshew
Purdy

Thanks, especially to Chaka, for the work this year!

Probably Minshew. Purdy has been darn impressive but I think Minshew is in line to throw more, has excellent surrounding talent and has proven effective in the past.

Minshew>Purdy

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Team 1

That’s where I’m leaning. He not shockingly added Minshew. And also Z.Wilson, and Pickett

 

[Chaka]

Non-PPR standard scoring:

Night or Moss as my RB3>

I really want to say Moss because the matchup couldn't be better, but there are some questions about how much of the workload he will shoulder. For that reason I like Zonovan more. He is almost locked into 15-17 looks and, if the Jets defense holds up he may get some scoring opportunities.

Zonovan>Moss

 

[Chaka]

PPR

Kmet vs BUF
or
Waller @ PIT

I hate both of them this week for different reasons.

Pay attention to the weather reports but if it holds at the current projections of 23mph winds I think you have to go with Waller. If, by game time the wind has dropped to closer to 15 mph then I pivot back to Kmet.

Waller>Kmet

 

[Chaka]

Opponent's only QB is Hurts. I'm ahead on waiver wire. Who do I pick up to best block him? These are the best available QBs: Minshew, Wilson, Pickett Purdy, Darnold

I think he will lean to Minshew. I'm torn- Minshew plays away against best defense but with best offense. Wilson, Pickett, Darnold play against terrible pass defenses at home. However, these QBs have shaky offenses.

Purdy plays against a good pass D and has a low ceiling and I'm not concerned.

I think Minshew and Wilson are the best plays.

For now my thought is not block him so if he takes Minshew he's got to do it against the best defense away.

Probably too late but I would have said Minshew by a good margin.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Fields Vs BUF or Brady at AZ?

Currently have Fields. Matchup makes it tempting, despite Brady’s abysmal week 15 game.

 

[Chaka]

Defense choices...

CIN @ NE

TB @ AZ

JAX @ NYJ

PHI @ DAL

To me it comes down to Cinci & TB. And that is a coin toss.

Total W.A.G. but right now Cinci is playing the best defense of this group (you could argue Phili but that matchup is rough), and the Patriots are just weird on offense. Not really sure what to expect from them but they don't scare anyone.

Maybe TB finally gets off their ##### with a sweet matchup.

The Jags @ Jets game is too tough for me to call so I don't want to speculate on the Jags defense.

TB>Ari

 

[Chaka]

Need 2 WR in Standard:

Zay Jones @ NYJ
D. Chark @ Carolina
Jameson Williams @ Carolina
DPJ VS NO
M. Godwin @KC

Goff is prolific at home; on the road he is un-prolific.
Wind in Cleveland looks impactful on passing games ATM.

I like Zay but it's a brutal matchup on a short week. His volume has been great over his last five games but I am not sure how often he will be schemed away from Gardner relative to Kirk. Plus the Jets have given up only 13 TD passes on the season.

M.Godwin has a lot working for him this week. There is a concern about how much of Lockett's target share he will absorb but he has a good opportunity. The Chiefs have given up 30 TD passes

Coin toss between Zay & Godwin IMO.

I think, because of the matchup:
M.Godwin>Zay

 

[Chaka]

Good news is I made the playoffs, bad news is I did it, like many others, with Hurts. I also lost Lockett. Now I have to pick from the following, non ppr:

QBs:-
Goff @ Panthers - he's not good on the road and this looks to be a potentially low scoring game
Minshew @ Cowboys - about as tough a game as he could have
Purdy vs Commanders - doing great so far, tempting

WRs (need 2)
AJ Brown @ Cowboys - I mean phenomenal year but horrible matchup and QB issues
C.Watson @ Dolphins - bit of a dud last game, still has big play potential
Z.Jones @ Jets - 3 huge weeks out of the last 4

TE
Goedert @ Cowboys
Schultz vs Eagles

I think I roll the dice with Minshew here. Obviously the matchup sucks but this is an excellent Eagles team from top to bottom. Great receivers, Goedert is back, top notch offensive line and Minshew has proven capable in the past.

Goff isn't terrible on the road, he just doesn't throw TDs like he does at home. I can't rely on him in this situation.

Purdy has looked surprisingly good. He could put up another 2 TDs for sure but you need to rely on his continued efficiency because he will likely remain a low volume passer.

Minshew>Purdy>Goff

I start AJ because I can't not start him and if you think his matchup is bad take a look at Zay's.

Watson has the best matchup by a good margin and it looks like the Packers offense is on a bit of a rise. He is definitely the least locked into his target share ATM but the Dolphins rank 26th or worse in every relevant pass defense metric and they can still score in bunches. With the run game finally clicking in Green Bay there may be more opportunities in the passing game across the board.

Zay has been brilliant, nigh unbenchable. But that secondary for the Jets is daunting, the defense as a whole is just scary. It's a short week and an absolute must win game...well, for both teams really but, IMO, more for the Jets. I think Saleh has his team more prepared for the home game.

AJ>Watson>Zay

 

[Chaka]

This is a combination WDIS and waiver wire question.

Have Njoku and Freiermuth in a 0.5 PPR league.

Njoku faces NOS allowing 4th fewest TE scoring (my league scoring) this week and WAS (5th fewest) next week. This week also appears to have brutal conditions in CLE.
Freiermuth has middle of the road options both weeks but may have bad (but not brutal) conditions this week. Has also been dealing with foot injury.

Could drop one and pick up Engram who also has middle of road defenses next two weeks. Hate Thursday night games, possible heavy rain and going against Jets but with Jets corners on the WRs perhaps he is the outlet valve this week (hoping Quinnen Williams is still out).

With Njoku's schedule seems like he is the one to drop and hoping Freiermuth gets healthy for week 17 if needed.

Experts seem to be all over the board with these 3 with Njoku or Engram being 1 or 3 and Freiermuth being 1 or 2 (among these choices) for this week's games. Don't know if the experts factor weather into their rankings. Also don't want to give my opponents a TE to use against me so right now I am banging my head on the keyboard.......

Personally I drop Friermuth. The QBs are just terrible. Njoku has 7, 9 & 6 targets in three games with Watson, bad matchups or not.

Besides the over the last six games (I think season long stats are not a good measure at this point in the season) the Commodores played Phi (Goedert scored 9 in PPR), then HOU, ATL & the NYG twice. Not a competent TE in the bunch.

The Saints did shut down Kittle, although the Niners didn't really need him either, and Friermuth, but Cade Otten put up 13 on them and the other two teams they faced are the Rams & Falcons.

I think their rankings have as much to do with who they faced as with the quality of the opponent.

And, much as the Jets defense worries me I agree with your logic. I wish it wasn't a Thursday game but the wind in Cleveland is looking to be impactful on passing games.

Drop Friermuth

Engram>Njoku

 

[Chaka]

Bad weather, short week, on the road, against a good defense, low point total

Considering benching Trevor for Aaron Rodgers @ MIA?

Picked up Trevor as a stop gap for Deshaun and Lamar but and he’s been excellent, but so many things seem to be pointing towards sitting Trevor here. Slight favorite(and somehow facing the same QB dilemma in 2 leagues) in both, so a safer play would be ideal I’d think? (Rodgers)

Rodgers>Lawrence

One of the best pass defenses or one of the worst pass defenses. Normal rest, decent weather vs short rest bad weather (not prohibitive though).

Rodgers was great in close games week 10-12 and the last two weeks were pretty much blowouts so they didn't need him to do much. Miami seems to be a tougher opponent than Chi or the Rams so.

Rodgers>Lawrence

 

[Chaka]

Fields Vs BUF or Brady at AZ?

Currently have Fields. Matchup makes it tempting, despite Brady’s abysmal week 15 game.

4 TOs didn't help but he still threw for 300+ & 3 TDs.

I think the only concern is, with Colt McCoy out is if TB will have the opportunity to simply run to victory. Personally I doubt it considering the rate Brady is putting up the ball this year.

The weather in Chicago is a legitimate concern but so far the forecast remains at 23mph winds and very cold (-9 wind chill). I don't think those factors necessarily hurt Fields game so much.

ATM, and subject to change as the weather situation solidifies:
Fields>Brady

 

[LionOfGosforth]

2 quick ones that I hope you won't mind answering because they are so tight for me

TE

Goedert or Schultz - both playing in the same game. Got to like Goedert's chances as a safety blanket and Schultz's floor is so low. Then again, Goedert is just back from injury

DEF

Patriots vs Bengals
or
Titans vs Texans

Never usually ask DEF questions but this is proving difficult. Pats are actually #1 in my scoring but harder matchup. Titans are ok, not great, better matchuo

Thanks!!

 

[Bozeman Bruiser]

I was able to snag Marquise Goodwin off waivers.

Flex, ppr, pick 1:
Olave vs Cle
Goodwin vs Chiefs

Goodwin seems like a no brainer but just want to confirm.

Also, since this may be my last WDIS for 9 months, lets throw some K & DST out:

K, pick 1
Gano vs Min
Folk vs Cin

Bad weather for Folk and Minny giving up the #1 K week in and week out for a month now would indicate Gano is a lock. Right?

DST, no points for scoring or yardage
Lions vs Car
Cowboys vs Phi
Chiefs vs Sea

Lions are hot but Panthers are run first, Cowboys are coming off 2 duds but Minshew may be rusty, Chiefs will force Seattle to play catch up in possible T.O. friendly weather. Thoughts? Leaning towards Lions or Cowboys.

 

[3 hour lunch]

WR/TE Flex, standard: Kittle vs Pittman

RB, pick 2, standard: Kamara vs McKinnon vs Pacheco vs Stevenson

 

[need2know]

No hurts

So Lawrence @ nyj
Or
Minshew @ dem boys

 

[travdogg]

No PPR

I only need to start 1 WR ..

AJ Brown @ Phi (possibly without Hurts)
or
Higgins @ NE

My opponent has Burrow

Merry Christmas to all!

AJ Brown. He's just a much better player than Higgins, and Minshew is a capable enough QB, its not like the drop off from Hurts is Kyler to McSorley big, like it is for some other WRs.

I'll start:

SF, PPR league

I think I just need a flex play (QB allowed)
Tyler Huntley v ATL
Jamaal @ CAR
Gus v ATL
JAMES Cook @ CHI
M.Brown v TBB
Jameson @ CAR

I honestly have no idea which way to go but am tempted to say WTF and roll with Jameson.

Huntley would be my call if he's starting, but I'm under the impression Lamar should be back this week. If Lamar is back, I'd go Jamaal against Carolina. Decent TD chances there. Cook and Gus have nice matchups, but I'm not confident in either workload.

I have some tough calls in a Semi-final matchup!!

Fields vs Buffalo in -15 degrees w/ no weapons
Brady @ Arizona

Need to sit ONE of these 7
Stephon Diggs @ Chicago
Davante Adams @ Pitt
Jamar Chase @ New England
CD Lamb vs Philly
Etienne @ NYJ
Pollard vs Philly
Dobbins vs Atlanta

I've rolled with the top 6 basically all year but Dobbins last two weeks + the matchup give em pause-- Would love any input

Fields by a mile. Fields is going for the rushing record these last few weeks. I think 100+ rushing yards against Buffalo is a fair over/under. Brady has neither the upside nor floor of Fields.

Even in a great matchup, I'd still sit Dobbins. Just too uncertain of his workload. Also might be relied upon even less if Lamar is back.

man after weeks of easy lineup choices I am slammed with some tough ones in the semis. pls help

Ppr

Pick 3 rb
Sanders @ dallas
Stevenson vs Cincinnati
Aaron Jones @ mia
K9 walker @ kc

Pick a flex
Waddle vs gb
Or the one you sat above

Other 2 wr are chase and aj brown. Not sitting them

Also I got hurts. Should I pickup minshew or Purdy in case he doesn't play? Thinking about just picking up minshew. I have high priority so I can get a qb easily

ami crazy to continue to ride eagles def. I think I am and I will.

I'd start all 4 RB's, and leave Waddle on the bench.

I'd rather have Minshew than Purdy, but I don't consider either a top-15 guy. I'm assuming most teams are carrying 2 QBs if those are the top guys.

I probably wouldn't want to start the Eagles D, but I'm very much someone who doesn't like to start any D versus a good offense. I wouldn't say you're crazy, but its not a start I'd make.

Played Ridder last week in my Superflex (lost Murray) and J. Taylor went down early. I still pulled out the win (just barely).

Need my QB2 for my superflex this week:
Darnold vs DET - Good matchup and weather in the 30's; That is a lot warmer than some of the other games; has a decent floor but not much upside
Pickett vs LV - Decent matchup, but going to be very cold; Should have a decent floor but a larger upside than Darnol
Minshew vs DAL - Tough matchup and is guaranteed to start at this point; I do need to put in a larger bid for him in order to get him; Not sure he is much better than the two above

Thoughts?

Minshew>Darnold>Pickett

.5 PPR

Need 2 RB and a FLX

Barkley @ MIN
Dobbins vs ATL
Stevenson vs CIN
Etienne @ NYJ
Z Jones @ NYJ
Pickens vs LV

Barkley and Stevenson are locks, and I'd lean Etienne in that 3rd spot. Just too much volume over the other options.

The good news is I had a bye last week, the bad news is the team that earned me the bye has been falling apart.

Locked in: Burrow, Henry, Walker, ARSB, JuJu

Pick 2 (WR3 and Flex), ppr:
Aiyuk vs Was
Olave @ Cle (DNP Tue, potential severe wind & mild snow)
Pickens vs LV
Richie James @ Min
Perine @ NE
Warren vs LV

Sadly Richie James has been averaging more than Aiyuk and Olave over the last month. Pickens has still yet to put up a "welcome to the NFL game" and it is week 16. Perine and Warren are both dart throws but could put up double digits with a score. A real buffet of mediocrity I am working with. Any help in sorting this out is appreciated.

Despite the recent cold spell, I'd still roll with Aiyuk and Olave.

0.5 PPR start 2

Evans at Ari
D.Smith at Dal
Akers vs. Den
J.Cook at Chi
J.Wilson vs. GB

Thanks and good luck all!

I'd go with Evans in a dream matchup, and Akers against one of the few teams that shouldn't jump out to an early lead against the Rams.

Appreciate all the help in here this years fellas. Special shout out to Chaka.

This weeks fun:

Tua v GB
Fields v BUF

I am also starting Tyreek Hill in this league, if that sways the start towards Tua.

Thanks y’all

I'd roll with Fields. Just way too much upside due to his rushing.

I have to start two of these (one must be WR) in a 0.5 PPR.

WR Slayton at MIN (leaning this as one right now)
WR AIyuk vs WAS (after last weeks clunker I have a hard time trusting anything here with Purdy playing it safe)
WR London at BALT (I don't think they can run on BALT but can Ridder throw it on them?)
RB Pacheco vs SEA (okay wish I had Mckinnon instead. McKinnon seems to get all the TDS and receptions and quite a bit of the rushing yards)
RB Wilson vs GB (before he got hurt - maybe Mostert was hurt at that time - he was doing really well. If he is active can he be trusted? I'll be playing Tua and TYreek so may be too many Dolphins anyway to add Wilson)

Might make a waiver wire claim for one of the IND rbs (but which one) or Goodwin (really think he could do well with Lockett out at KC)

I'd go with Pacheco and Aiyuk. Best players, and both have decent matchups.

 

[Chaka]

2 quick ones that I hope you won't mind answering because they are so tight for me

TE

Goedert or Schultz - both playing in the same game. Got to like Goedert's chances as a safety blanket and Schultz's floor is so low. Then again, Goedert is just back from injury

DEF

Patriots vs Bengals
or
Titans vs Texans

Never usually ask DEF questions but this is proving difficult. Pats are actually #1 in my scoring but harder matchup. Titans are ok, not great, better matchuo

Thanks!!

Both W.A.G.'s

Goedert seemed to be slightly more consistent with his targets than Schultz was but, still very close. Now with Minshew it's anyone's guess. The matchup is similar for both too. There is no way I can help here. My 100%, eyes closed W.A.G. is:
Schultz>Goedert

For the defense I would risk the Titans at home against that offense. New England D is great but, IMO, You're hoping for a big mistake by the opposing offense and I think Houston is more likely to commit that mistake.
Tenn>NE

 

[Chaka]

I was able to snag Marquise Goodwin off waivers.

Flex, ppr, pick 1:
Olave vs Cle
Goodwin vs Chiefs

Goodwin seems like a no brainer but just want to confirm.

Also, since this may be my last WDIS for 9 months, lets throw some K & DST out:

K, pick 1
Gano vs Min
Folk vs Cin

Bad weather for Folk and Minny giving up the #1 K week in and week out for a month now would indicate Gano is a lock. Right?

DST, no points for scoring or yardage
Lions vs Car
Cowboys vs Phi
Chiefs vs Sea

Lions are hot but Panthers are run first, Cowboys are coming off 2 duds but Minshew may be rusty, Chiefs will force Seattle to play catch up in possible T.O. friendly weather. Thoughts? Leaning towards Lions or Cowboys.

I read Olave has a hamstring and ATM there is forecast for heavy wind in CLE.

M.Godwin>Olave

In this situation I take the kicker playing in the dome:
Gano>Folk

So your defense is just about sacks & turnovers? And defensive TDs I presume. I think I go with the Lions too. They are playing red hot ATM, and the Panthers have abandoned the run with alarming regularity. Darnold can be forced into mistakes.

Seattle has given up more sacks and turned the ball over more than both Car & Phi though.

But, IMO, Dallas is your best defense and that's who you should roll with.

DAL>DET>KC

 

[travdogg]

Special holiday 1st round playoff "pick your poison" question!

I know who I'm starting, but as the 1-seed, I'm having a hard time deciding on an opponent for week 1 (1-seed chooses their playoff opponent).

It's IDP, but I'll make it easy by just posting the offenses. 12-team, PPR, 6 points all TDs, Ru/Re bonus 2 at 100+, Pa bonus of 2 at 300+, .1/1st down, .1 for every 5 completions.

Should I face:
Team 1 (wildcard):
QB - Hurts (no backup - WW of Minshew, ZWilson, Pickett, Mac Jones)
RB - Kamara/Sanders
WR - ARSB/Godwin/Zay Jones
TE - Andrews
O-FLX - London

Team 2 - 3-seed, coming in on a cold streak):
QB - Allen (Burrow)
RB - Montgomery/R. White
WR - Tyreek/Hopkins/D.Adams
TE - Waller
O-FLX - Chark

Team 3 (2-seed, on a hot streak):
QB - Cousins (Purdy)
RB - Ekeler/Jacobs (J.Wilson)
WR - AJBrown/Aiyuk/Metcalf
TE - Okonkwo
O-FLX - KJO

Assuming no waiver claims change these lineups, which would you rather face?

At first I thought the WC was the obvious - bad matchups (at Dallas for Sanders, London with a rookie QB, Zay Jones at the Jets) and potentially losing Hurts (but has waiver priority to get Minshew, or one of the other scrubs) and some weather.

But the 2-seed (3rd highest scoring team) has *both* QBs in bad weather/tough matchups (at PIT, and at Pats), White's production limited by a suddenly healthy Fournette, Waller and Adams in potentially awful conditions, DHop without Kyler.

The 2-seed has great RBs, and I'm not convinced they stick with KJO at flex if Wilson is good to go. His WRs scare me a little, as Metcalf at KC is kind of a jackpot start, and Aiyuk any given sunday....AJBrown is seemingly hurt by Hurts absence, but probably not a ton since Minshew can get the ball out - DAL pass rush is still a tough matchup, playing angry off a bad loss.

IDP is a weekly crap shoot. All 4 playoff teams have strong IDP options. Also, I have Justin Jefferson, & Tee Higgins, so potentially the primary receivers for 2 of the opponents. if that matters (and if team 2 starts Burrow over Allen, which I doubt).

I have until Thursday at Noon PT to decide. Any/All feedback welcome.

I'd want to face team 1. Other than St. Brown that's a pretty boom/bust roster, that I'm guessing really only made the playoffs because of Hurts. The other 2 teams, have guys who can swing weeks by themselves, and I'd want to avoid those if I could.

Hurts is hurt, so in a 4-point passing and 6-point running league, would you start:
Minshew
Purdy

Thanks, especially to Chaka, for the work this year!

Minshew, he's got better weapons, and likely will need more points to win.

Non-PPR standard scoring:

Night or Moss as my RB3>

I'd go Knight against the Jags. Even though he really only has 3 good games, he feels much more reliable.

PPR

Kmet vs BUF
or
Waller @ PIT

I'd go Waller against the Steelers. I think Chicago is pretty run heavy this week.

Opponent's only QB is Hurts. I'm ahead on waiver wire. Who do I pick up to best block him? These are the best available QBs: Minshew, Wilson, Pickett Purdy, Darnold

I think he will lean to Minshew. I'm torn- Minshew plays away against best defense but with best offense. Wilson, Pickett, Darnold play against terrible pass defenses at home. However, these QBs have shaky offenses.

Purdy plays against a good pass D and has a low ceiling and I'm not concerned.

I think Minshew and Wilson are the best plays.

For now my thought is not block him so if he takes Minshew he's got to do it against the best defense away.

If you aren't cutting anyone of value, I'd lean Minshew.

Defense choices...

CIN @ NE

TB @ AZ

JAX @ NYJ

PHI @ DAL

Its between the Bengals and Bucs for me. Depends, if it sounds like McSorley is starting for Zona, if he is, I lean TB, if its McCoy, I lean the Bengals.

Need 2 WR in Standard:

Zay Jones @ NYJ
D. Chark @ Carolina
Jameson Williams @ Carolina
DPJ VS NO
M. Godwin @KC

Zay>Goodwin>Chark in my opinion. Kinda see the Browns just being very run heavy against NO.

Good news is I made the playoffs, bad news is I did it, like many others, with Hurts. I also lost Lockett. Now I have to pick from the following, non ppr:

QBs:-
Goff @ Panthers - he's not good on the road and this looks to be a potentially low scoring game
Minshew @ Cowboys - about as tough a game as he could have
Purdy vs Commanders - doing great so far, tempting

WRs (need 2)
AJ Brown @ Cowboys - I mean phenomenal year but horrible matchup and QB issues
C.Watson @ Dolphins - bit of a dud last game, still has big play potential
Z.Jones @ Jets - 3 huge weeks out of the last 4

TE
Goedert @ Cowboys
Schultz vs Eagles

QB-Goff, just the most proven, and Lions offense is playing well.
WR-Brown and Watson
TE-Schultz, just trust him more in Goedert's 1st game back.

Last head to head team standing. Thanks for a fun and interesting thread.
FFPC scoring:

Need TWO of the following WR's:

T.Higgins @ N.E.
B.Aiyuk vs Wash
C.Watson @ Mia

Higgins and Watson

This is a combination WDIS and waiver wire question.

Have Njoku and Freiermuth in a 0.5 PPR league.

Njoku faces NOS allowing 4th fewest TE scoring (my league scoring) this week and WAS (5th fewest) next week. This week also appears to have brutal conditions in CLE.
Freiermuth has middle of the road options both weeks but may have bad (but not brutal) conditions this week. Has also been dealing with foot injury.

Could drop one and pick up Engram who also has middle of road defenses next two weeks. Hate Thursday night games, possible heavy rain and going against Jets but with Jets corners on the WRs perhaps he is the outlet valve this week (hoping Quinnen Williams is still out).

With Njoku's schedule seems like he is the one to drop and hoping Freiermuth gets healthy for week 17 if needed.

Experts seem to be all over the board with these 3 with Njoku or Engram being 1 or 3 and Freiermuth being 1 or 2 (among these choices) for this week's games. Don't know if the experts factor weather into their rankings. Also don't want to give my opponents a TE to use against me so right now I am banging my head on the keyboard.......

I'd drop Njoku for Engram. Lawrence is just on so much of a tear.

 

[Chaka]

WR/TE Flex, standard: Kittle vs Pittman

RB, pick 2, standard: Kamara vs McKinnon vs Pacheco vs Stevenson

Those are some tough calls.

I think Foles is, at worst, a push over Ryan and possibly an improvement. The Chargers appear to be decent against the pass statistically but IMO that has more to do with them being so terrible against the run. They have the 3rd fewest pass attempts against but every other metric is middle of the pack or lower. If Indy struggles to run, and with Deon/Zack carrying the ball they may struggle then I think there will be decent opportunities for Pittman. He is also, almost certainly going to see more targets than Kittle.

I don't know how to handicap Purdy yet. My belief is Shanahan will try to protect him as much as possible and 25 attempts could be his ceiling, unless Washington gets up big early. We know Kittle can put up a lot of points with only 5 targets but, it is difficult to rely upon.

Pittman>Kittle

I think Stevenson is still an auto start in PPR formats but this is standard. He's getting opportunity and putting up very good yardage. But he has not found the end zone at a rate any of us hoped.

Kamara has been similar in that he'll put up the yards but is even worse at finding the end zone.

I know this may not be a popular thought but I would very strongly consider rolling out both McKinnon & Pacheco and capturing 100% of the Chiefs running game. Pacheco has been getting 15 looks per game consistently and McKinnon is the guy they use when trailing or close in games. Capturing their combined output could equate to around two low end RB1s. Over the last six games Pacheco & McKinnon have combined for (OPPORTUNITIES:YARDS:TDS):
v JAX 25 140 0
@ LAC 22 131 0
v LAR 29 112 1
@ CIN 26 142 2
@ DEN 31 227 2
@ HOU 34 219 2

Defensively this is how those teams and Seattle stack up (points allowed, rush yards/game, rush yards/attempt, Total Rush TDs allowed):
PTS YDS/G Y/A TD
JAX 23.4 118.1 4.2 14
LAC 24.3 145.6 5.3 15
LAR 22.9 104.5 4 10
CIN 20.6 109.6 4.2 11
DEN 18.1 114.5 4.4 8
HOU 24.6 167.5 4.9 19
SEA 25.4 161.1 4.9 19

It's obviously a big risk but if it were me I would roll both Chiefs RBs and get all of that pie.

As far as ranking them against each other if I had to guess this is how I think it would break down. It looks different than my recommendation because I have a lesser degree of confidence in the outcome for McKinnon & Pacheco. That added degree of uncertainty drops both of them. I believe you are more likely to achieve the best outcome with Pacheco+McKinnon than you with any other combination of them. I hope that makes sense.
Kamara>Stevenson>Pacheco>McKinnon

 

[Chaka]

No hurts

So Lawrence @ nyj
Or
Minshew @ dem boys

Lawrence has burned me over the past few weeks but, I just hate that matchup. To be fair the Jags have a dynamic offense and maybe match up well with the Jets but I'm betting on the Jets D tomorrow. Lawrence may have turned a corner but I still think Saleh will figure out some wrinkles he has never considered.

Minshew and the Eagles have an even better supporting cast than the Jags IMO and Minshew has been a decent starter previously. He is one of the better backup QBs in the league, maybe the best. I will bet on the talent of the Eagles as a whole.

Minshew>Lawrence

eta: @need2know this is a very low confidence projection on my part. I could easily flip flop on it. i.e. go with your gut, not mine.

 

[tricky1066]

Hello all... a really dumb question here. I have my avatar, Etienne and Zay available. I don't have a choice over Etienne or Zay (they are starting)... but I have Fields on the bench and goldilocks has been on fire the last couple weeks... please confirm I would be beyond stupid to start the "trifecta" - THANKS

 

[shadrap]

PPR- Need 1
R. White at AZ
A.J. Dillion at Miami

Need 2
Lazard at Miami
Aiyuk vrs Seattle
Kirk at Jets

nobody is perfect but I do like your thought process. Can't say thank you enough, but thank you.
Merry Christmas

 

[shadrap]

4 pt passing TD's.
Need 1
D. Jones at Vikes
Minshaw at Dallas

 

[shadrap]

Hello all... a really dumb question here. I have my avatar, Etienne and Zay available. I don't have a choice over Etienne or Zay (they are starting)... but I have Fields on the bench and goldilocks has been on fire the last couple weeks... please confirm I would be beyond stupid to start the "trifecta" - THANKS

I go Fields easily, but not stupid if Lawrence. Jets are pretty tough to pass on whereas I expect 100 yards out of Fields rushing alone.

 

[3 hour lunch]

WR/TE Flex, standard: Kittle vs Pittman

RB, pick 2, standard: Kamara vs McKinnon vs Pacheco vs Stevenson

Those are some tough calls.

I think Foles is, at worst, a push over Ryan and possibly an improvement. The Chargers appear to be decent against the pass statistically but IMO that has more to do with them being so terrible against the run. They have the 3rd fewest pass attempts against but every other metric is middle of the pack or lower. If Indy struggles to run, and with Deon/Zack carrying the ball they may struggle then I think there will be decent opportunities for Pittman. He is also, almost certainly going to see more targets than Kittle.

I don't know how to handicap Purdy yet. My belief is Shanahan will try to protect him as much as possible and 25 attempts could be his ceiling, unless Washington gets up big early. We know Kittle can put up a lot of points with only 5 targets but, it is difficult to rely upon.

Pittman>Kittle

I think Stevenson is still an auto start in PPR formats but this is standard. He's getting opportunity and putting up very good yardage. But he has not found the end zone at a rate any of us hoped.

Kamara has been similar in that he'll put up the yards but is even worse at finding the end zone.

I know this may not be a popular thought but I would very strongly consider rolling out both McKinnon & Pacheco and capturing 100% of the Chiefs running game. Pacheco has been getting 15 looks per game consistently and McKinnon is the guy they use when trailing or close in games. Capturing their combined output could equate to around two low end RB1s. Over the last six games Pacheco & McKinnon have combined for (OPPORTUNITIES:YARDS:TDS):
v JAX 25 140 0
@ LAC 22 131 0
v LAR 29 112 1
@ CIN 26 142 2
@ DEN 31 227 2
@ HOU 34 219 2

Defensively this is how those teams and Seattle stack up (points allowed, rush yards/game, rush yards/attempt, Total Rush TDs allowed):
PTS YDS/G Y/A TD
JAX 23.4 118.1 4.2 14
LAC 24.3 145.6 5.3 15
LAR 22.9 104.5 4 10
CIN 20.6 109.6 4.2 11
DEN 18.1 114.5 4.4 8
HOU 24.6 167.5 4.9 19
SEA 25.4 161.1 4.9 19

It's obviously a big risk but if it were me I would roll both Chiefs RBs and get all of that pie.

As far as ranking them against each other if I had to guess this is how I think it would break down. It looks different than my recommendation because I have a lesser degree of confidence in the outcome for McKinnon & Pacheco. That added degree of uncertainty drops both of them. I believe you are more likely to achieve the best outcome with Pacheco+McKinnon than you with any other combination of them. I hope that makes sense.
Kamara>Stevenson>Pacheco>McKinnon

Yeah I was initially the other way on Kittle, but it’s recency bias I think. Kittle has exactly 2 points in 3 of his last 5 games, before his big one last week. Of course, you can argue that recency matters quite a bit in this situation with the Deebo injury, but I think I am still rolling Pittman. There’s no way Foles can be more of a checkdown king than Ryan.
I’m intrigued by your RB suggestion. Seattle is terrible against the run as you mentioned. 32nd over the last 5 weeks. Benching my healthy first rounder (Kamara) against another poor rush D seems like overthinking, but he just doesn’t score much and again, it’s not PPR. Stevenson racked up the yards last week and would maybe even be a tougher bench than Kamara. Cincy is better against the run but he’s been a horse with Harris out. 3 more days to agonize over it I guess.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Hello all... a really dumb question here. I have my avatar, Etienne and Zay available. I don't have a choice over Etienne or Zay (they are starting)... but I have Fields on the bench and goldilocks has been on fire the last couple weeks... please confirm I would be beyond stupid to start the "trifecta" - THANKS

I wouldn’t mind the trifecta. Depends on the wind in Chicago, and if any rain or snow creeps into the equation. TLaw has been solid. That said….

The jets are a legit pass defense. Fields probably has the higher floor due to his rushing prowess.

I’d go fields.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

PPR- Need 1
R. White at AZ
A.J. Dillion at Miami

AJD For me and not close. Both TB backs should do well, but it seems obvious that White got a lot more run because Fournette was legit hurt.

Now Lenny lllks 100% & White is a bit of an afterthought. And it’s not like his receiving profile gives him a leg up, as Lenny is a very good receiver.

So considering they’re both RBBC guys to some extent, AJD has a much higher floor as the GL/short yardage back, who also gets receptions & will play multiple whole series as the featured guy as GB alternates.

AND has had 3 straight 18-23 point games, and I’d be willing to bet this is his 4th.

Need 2
Lazard at Miami
Aiyuk vrs Seattle
Kirk at Jets

nobody is perfect but I do like your thought process. Can't say thank you enough, but thank you.
Merry Christmas

Oof. Kirk against a brutal Jets secondary. Aiyuk not a lot better against the Commanders, and Lazard was last week.

I’d hold my nose and start Aiyuk & kirk. I would also check to see if Goodwin is available.

 

[zeke2222]

Standard Scoring:

Need 3:

Waddle vs GB
Hopkins vs TB (Possible Mcsorly at QB)
A Cooper vs NO (Possible Wind)
Theilen Vs NYG?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Standard Scoring:

Need 3:

Waddle vs GB
Hopkins vs TB (Possible Mcsorly at QB)
A Cooper vs NO (Possible Wind)
Theilen Vs NYG?

Waddle’s been hot. Hopkins with a bad QB is still probably better than Cooper in 40 mph wind. Thielen always has a shot at a TD.

I think Cooper is the odd man out here.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Need to sit 2 in a PPR league with bonus of 40+ yard TDs

Lamb
Allen
Stevenson
Hopkins
Godwin
Metcalf

 

[zeke2222]

PPR :

Need 1

Pat Freimuth vs LV
Evan Engram vs Jets
Juwan Johnson vs Clev?

Presently have Freimuth in (Pickett) back think he gets back on track?

 

[Chaka]

Hello all... a really dumb question here. I have my avatar, Etienne and Zay available. I don't have a choice over Etienne or Zay (they are starting)... but I have Fields on the bench and goldilocks has been on fire the last couple weeks... please confirm I would be beyond stupid to start the "trifecta" - THANKS

You would not be stupid IMO. The Jags run a strong offense with multiple targets. I am a fan of finding a strong offense and riding as many pieces of as I can.

For awhile I was running four Lions...oh wait I think I still am this week, Goff, ARSB, Swift & Jamal (last week I left Jamaal on my bench) and next week I may add Jameson to my starting group. I have had excellent results with that strategy...at least when the Lions are at home.

All that being said, that Jets defense is for real, now the Lions may not be a great analog because Goff has been consistently less productive on the road, but they're the #5 scoring team in the league (even after scoring 6 points combined on the road at NE & DAL). They're 4th in yards too. Jags aren't far behind in either category.

But the Jets held the Lions to 13 points until a highly improbable 51 yard TD with 1:49 remaining.

Since week 3 the Jets have given up 3 TDs to an opponent once....once (careful, if you laugh at that I'll know how old you are).

All I'm saying is, I can't count on more than two TDs from the Jags this week.

I like Lawrence but Fields is a one man wrecking crew. I wish you didn't need to make this decision today because of weather in Chicago but...at this point I'm not benching Fields.

Fields>Lawrence

 

[Chaka]

PPR- Need 1
R. White at AZ
A.J. Dillion at Miami

Dillon 199% (typo but I'm good with it). I can't find the argument for White with Fournette healthy. Dillon is just playing too well over the last three games. He's finally looking like the guy we thought he would be in September. If you drafted him and still are playing meaningful games congrats because your team is looking a lot stronger now.

Dillon>White

 

[dmac37]

A couple of calls to make this week. 12 team full point PPR. Need 1 RB, 1WR, and 1 flex.

RB 2/3- need 1 + possible flex
Dillon- looks like he is good to go, I'm also starting A. Jones
Hunt- slam dunk if Chubb is out or maybe even if Chubb is limited sharing carries
Deon Jackson- my eyes from the last game and my gut tells me he will be the better Colt RB to play this week. I think he was punished last week because of the fumble, looked much better than Moss

WR 3/4- need 1 + possible flex
Zay- Sauce plays on one side, Zay plays all 3 WR positions. Jets play zone, Zay is better vs zone, Zay is hot
Gabe- I'm the underdog shooing for the fences
Chris Moore- only if Collins and Cooks are out
Sutton- can't trust

 

[Goooals]

I wasn't able to land Moss as I was outbid; New WDIS question for standard scoring, non-ppr league:

Knight or Dillon?

 

[fightingillini]

Brady @ AZ or D Jones @ MIN?

Start 2 of these WRs...PPR
Palmer @ IND
Slayton @ MIN
London @ BAL
C Samuel @ SF
Chark @ CAR

 

[kajaet]

I havent been on this thread lately because honestly my team is not deep and there arent really good options to sit a current starter for me. But.......I appreciated this forum feature this year and I have a good one this week:

Dobbins (without Jackson) vs ATL or,
Sanders (without Hurts) vs DAL?

It's a 1/2 PPR but neither guy has been used that way much this year.

I wouldn't normally sit Sanders but Dobbins has forced the issue and I'm leaning towards Dobbins. I do not know which way to go.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Need to sit 2 in a PPR league with bonus of 40+ yard TDs

Lamb
Allen
Stevenson
Hopkins
Godwin
Metcalf

I’d sit Goodwin & Hopkins.

Too many better options. If Nuk had Murray, he’d be a start.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

PPR :

Need 1

Pat Freimuth vs LV
Evan Engram vs Jets
Juwan Johnson vs Clev?

Presently have Freimuth in (Pickett) back think he gets back on track?

Engram.

And I hate having to recommend him so much, because I couldn’t give him away for 3 years, then added him as a toss-in toward a 2023 1st.

And now he’s finally living up to draft expectations - after I drafted him in his rookie year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I havent been on this thread lately because honestly my team is not deep and there arent really good options to sit a current starter for me. But.......I appreciated this forum feature this year and I have a good one this week:

Dobbins (without Jackson) vs ATL or,
Sanders (without Hurts) vs DAL?

It's a 1/2 PPR but neither guy has been used that way much this year.

I wouldn't normally sit Sanders but Dobbins has forced the issue and I'm leaning towards Dobbins. I do not know which way to go.

Coin flip, but I too lean Dobbins.

Dallas is a difficult defense to run against. Minshew might turned the ball over more than hurts would, or at least struggle to move the sticks leading to more punts than usual.

Hey, the eagles could come out and dominate the cowboys - any given Sunday. But my gut tells me this game could go badly for Philly, or at least be not a banner day for their run game.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Brady @ AZ or D Jones @ MIN?

Brady at AZ. I can’t shake the feeling that Brady’s going to have a monster game. Weather isn’t an issue, AZ’s a butter soft pass D, and IMO Brady will want to make up for his turnover ridden game from week 15 & show the world that he isn’t washed.

He might still be washed, but with playoffs on the line, and in a tasty matchup under the lights, I’m expecting fireworks.

Start 2 of these WRs...PPR
Palmer @ IND
Slayton @ MIN
London @ BAL
C Samuel @ SF
Chark @ CAR

Yikes.

London, probably. Palmer is my second choice but he’s facing a tough-ish pass D. Chark in a good matchup.

Choices like these I generally start the dudes with the safest floor - so check their numbers and see who’s going to hurt you the least as opposed to who might have a moonshot.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I

Since week 3 the Jets have given up 3 TDs to an opponent once....once (careful, if you laugh at that I'll know how old you are).

don’t even have to click the link.

“My mudda hung me on a hook once. Once.”

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you drafted him and still are playing meaningful games congrats because your team is looking a lot stronger now.

My experience currently. Dude’s been a godsend - incredibly timely.

 

[raidersfan]

I'm in QB purgatory after losing Hurts. 4 pt passing TD, 6 pt rushing.

I was out of FAAB so missed out on Minshew/Cousins (had been recently dropped). My QB options are

Carr @ Pit (not a cold weather QB, also my bench QB)
Pickett vs LV
Purdy vs Was
Foles vs LA
Darnold vs Det

Purdy seems to be the "safest" bet in my opinion. Obviously not replacing Hurts output, but are any of these guys able to go for >20 points??

Thanks in advance!