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WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LawFitz
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I will never understand TSP's fascination with this guy. It's like Lucy and Charlie Brown, every year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It seems very unlikely to me because he is so good at returns. If they did take him off of these roles it would because they intend to use him more on offense though.
Antonio Brown stayed on returns for quite awhile even with massive volume on offense.
So I wouldn't worry about it. It actually might be a good thing from a fantasy perspective if it happens.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
He ran out of the slot on 53% of his snaps last week which lead the team by a fair margin. He obviously gets a boost but you have to remember Baldwin was pretty high variance himself.kyoun1e said:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Might be time to roll him out myself. I like his situation over the likes of Crowder and Robby this week.
You don't appear to be missing anything (except I think Baldwin's preseason knee issue was blown out of proportion, however the MCL is concerning). Your last line sums it up perfectly. Time will tell, but I'm leaning towards him being a success, but prepared for the worst.kyoun1e said:
1. Lockett is more versatile than given credit for and if he's playing half his snaps from the slot, why wouldn't a 3 step drop be good for him?
2. Agreed...
3. Meh. He got called for offensive pass interference in the end zone once and he definitely pushed off on his TD. I'm not sure he can get separation anymore without pushing off.
also... dat scarf tho
Sure, on the surface but if you dig a little deeper it is pretty obvious:
Year 1: Really nice rookie year, especially from an advanced stats perspective.
Year 2: Starts the season slowly due to a week 2 PCL injury (played 62 snaps week 1 with 8 targets, but averaged 35 snaps and 4 targets the rest of the season). Second half of the season he's on pace for about 900 yards despite an awful OL and banged up Wilson. Suffers gruesome compound fracture.
Year 3: Supposedly never 100%, still recovering from injury. Cedes snaps to Richardson who manages 80 targets for 44/700/6.
Year 4: Team lets Richardson walk for $8M/year, signs Lockett for $11M/year. He's healthy. Plays 98% of offensive snaps in week 1 (Marshall played 64.9%).
If this year doesn't work out, it's probably time to move on. However, there are a lot of signs pointing to this being a breakout year. Given the extremely low opportunity cost, I think people are crazy to pass on him for logic that usually boils down to "because box scores."
Interseptopus
Footballguy
This pretty much sums up where I am. If this year is more if the same then it's time to move on. But there is opportunity, and that's all a prayer needs sometimes.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Might be starting him over Cooper or Corey Davis - One of them will be on the bench.
I get 0.04 points per return yard which only is an extra 2.5 points per game, but if he can get up to the 5-50 range, it'll be a nice floor.
@ Chicago on MNF - they might have to pass a lot.
I get 0.04 points per return yard which only is an extra 2.5 points per game, but if he can get up to the 5-50 range, it'll be a nice floor.
@ Chicago on MNF - they might have to pass a lot.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
FBGs with my return settings has him WR18 the ROS - I doubt he keeps that up as it's based off 1 game where they forgot to cover him for a 50+ score. Just funny to see his name above Sanders, Cooks, Davis, DT, Gordon.
Is this really something you are unsure about? Seems pretty obvious to me. You gotta bench Cooper and his 3 targets, but you also have to keep Davis and his 13 targets in your lineup. To me (at least for week 2): Davis > Lockett > Cooper. 
ratbast
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The big preseason play people linked to show he's back was also a major push off that wasn't called. Even during his one big season with the Jets (three years ago) he didn't gain much separation but Fitz forced the ball to him and he fought off smaller defensive backs (to his credit) but to your point he's clearly slowed down even more since then and the refs are going to start watching him closer if he keeps relying on offensive pass interference to make plays.3. Meh. He got called for offensive pass interference in the end zone once and he definitely pushed off on his TD. I'm not sure he can get separation anymore without pushing off.
also... dat scarf tho
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
That's the way I was leaning. Just murky situations all around - Davis (QB issues, lost two good lneman) However he lost Walker so in theory more targets.
Lockett has Baldwin out a few weeks, Marshall still there, not really a run game, deep ball dependent?
Cooper - Chucky is trying to light a fire under him in the media. Talks about bringing Bryant back to move Cooper to slot. Plays @ Denver.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Draft Dominator had him WR24 with my settings. I thought about starting over Cooks but JWB makes good points about his ceiling. At flex I have Freeman, Barber, and Alex Collins. Likely starting him over all 3 of them as my flex. While each of those 3 have a much higher ceiling than Lockett, I feel like Lockett's floor is not as low as theirs, especially with return yardage
Yeah, as soon as I hit submit I remembered you calling that out earlier in the thread (or maybe another thread) and regretting not linking that push off, too. I've only seen a few Marshall plays in Seattle and three of them have been push offs. Not encouraging.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
To be fair, even in his prime he always relied on his size advantage over corner backs to make plays (and he's good at it) - but was also a better deep threat back then. He may go on to have a nice season is Seattle based on volume and the fact that he can still "out-physical" most defensive backs but like I said I've seen every game he's played over the last three seasons and the last two he looked like a shell of himself. The Hawks don't have much else besides Marshall and Lockett with Baldwin out and with their defense in shambles the volume will be there at least - his owners will surely be frustrated when half his TDs get called back though.
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Yeah, I absolutely agree with the bolded, and you are correct he was a better deep threat, but the main difference is that he was better at getting just enough separation that he didn't have to push off. He was still winning jump balls on the Jets, but he wasn't pushing off with as much regularity as best I can recall (I had Decker on a lot of teams that year with Fitzmagic, so I watched a lot of those Jets games and highlights).
I know I'm in the minority, but I've liked Jaron Brown's game for a few years now (from before his ACL tear). I wouldn't be surprised if he overtakes Marshall at some point. I'm not saying he'll be fantasy relevant (because Baldwin will be back soon) but he could make Marshall fantasy irrelevant.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Any opinions on ROS on holding Alshon Jeffrey ... in a short bench league and have a chance at Lockett...
Yup.
Dodds/Bloom/Tremblay all high on him this week. Above some names that raised my eyebrows.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I was a big fan of Lockett's coming out of college. He reminded me so much of Hilton, Steve Smith. A smaller guy that had speed to burn, but could run all the routes. Over the years I have picked him up as throw ins on dynasty trades and such, if I didn't draft him. I really hope this is the year, not just because I own him every where, but I almost feel like I am part of his career at this point. OMG, am I turning into @Soulfly3?
Yep one game. One game that looks like most of the rest of his career: 9 games in 2017 with 4 or fewer targets; 8 in 2016; 8 in 2015.
I'm looking for a sign that he's turned a corner or whatever, but so far he looks like the same player he's always been.
ratbast
Footballguy
I get it. This week might be rough too. Baldwin being hurt isn’t going to help him either. Is he a good wr for an NFL team? sure, but I agree, he’s not really a confidence play in fantasy.
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oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
I take it back!!
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
He may really shine in home games against mediocre teams. Two tough road games to start the year and two TDs.
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah he has faced two defenses that could finish top 5. I think Mack, Floyd, Smith & Trevaithan could be the best LB corps in the NFL.
It was a real disappointing game until late, just like last week. But he has come up big when needed so maybe, just maybe Schottenheimer figures out that he should involve Lockett earlier and more often.
Won't happen because...Schottenheimer, but I would love to see it
It was a real disappointing game until late, just like last week. But he has come up big when needed so maybe, just maybe Schottenheimer figures out that he should involve Lockett earlier and more often.
Won't happen because...Schottenheimer, but I would love to see it
Chaka
Footballguy
I think he will retain great value all year. It's MArshall who will be hurt by baldwin coming back. lockett is good for at least one deep play every week. He' the #2 WR when Baldwin comes back.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
I'm holding. Hell, I'll probably start playing him over Cooper every week...
Elevencents
Footballguy
This. I think Baldwin will help Lockett because he will draw the #1 and Lockett can do his thing.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Currently WR9 in my PPR with return points (25 yds/1 pt) league.
And it's not like he's Calvin Ridley and has one 40 point game and the rest garbage. He's been a legitimate starting WR every week so far.
He's starting for me until the above is not true
And it's not like he's Calvin Ridley and has one 40 point game and the rest garbage. He's been a legitimate starting WR every week so far.
He's starting for me until the above is not true
Elevencents
Footballguy
That’s a good name to drop. Everyone is all over Ridley’s nuts claiming he is a plug and play going forward but Lockett isn’t even rosterable, lol. It’s hilarious. I mean I get it, Ridley is a young stud and Lockett has always been kinda meh but I would be happy starting Lockett.
ETA: WR14 in our league.
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Elevencents
Footballguy
Yeah sorry, I meant it more as “here’s this 6’2” physical specimen just out of Alabama and then there’s a guy who is 170lbs soaking wet”
Not literally one is young and one is old. Ditto.
Tried to package him the last couple weeks. Have a feeling he's finally caught other's attention so he probably could be sold higher now.
He can't get a 40-50 yard bomb every week.
I just know if I start him he goes 2-13.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Selling in redraft or dynasty?
I don't fault anyone for selling in redraft, but I think he's a dynasty hold (probably too expensive to buy now). He's getting a disappointing target share (18%) considering Baldwin is out, somehow one target behind Marshall. But at the same time, he's been ridiculously efficient, catching 71% of his targets for 16.3 ypr. Shouldn't be surprising since he's caught 67% since coming into the league and he's a burner, but notable all the same.
If not for the unexpected contract, I might be tempted to write this off as a fluke due to Baldwin's absence, but the fact Seattle gave him an extension before he was a FA while Earl Thomas is looking for an extension is pretty telling. They saw something in him and now we're seeing it. It's bound to slow down (although the good news is that his current target share is sustainable when Baldwin returns), but I think his overall career trajectory will remain sharply up.
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