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DD says Antonio Brown #1 Overall? (1 Viewer)

Eph

Footballguy
With my scoring system and roster spots, DD is telling me that Antonio Brown has a higher VBD than any of the RBs.

Does this sound right?

Active roster:

2 RBs

2 WRs

1 Flex (RB,WR,TE)

etc.

 
12 team

Roster: QB, 2RB, 2WR, RB/WR/TE, TE, PK, 2DB, 2LB, 1Dflex
0.5 PPR
1pt/10yards receiving and rushing
1pt/25yards passing
25yds/pt for KR/PR

 
In my league:

WR1-WR5, TE1, RB1, WR6, QB1, RB2....

QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, DEF

6 TDs, PPR, Bonus for Big Yardage + Long TDs

 
He's number one on my board of wide receivers and I think he carries less?'s then the top running back's. So that doesn't strike me as odd

 
Long Ball Larry said:
You get both the ppr and his kick return yardage?
:goodposting: Although he only returns punts right? And how many yards does he actually get each week. Often under 25, right? So his total could look like more than it actually would be, since it is scored on a weekly basis.
His totals would say he got 12 points on punt returns last year, but he actually got 5.

Not that big of a deal, but really punt ret yards should probably have a different threshold than kick offs.

 
He was #1 in my league according to DD and went as the 2nd pick off the board.

My scoring system is very similar to FBG contest scoring (tiered ppr).

 
With my scoring system and roster spots, DD is telling me that Antonio Brown has a higher VBD than any of the RBs.

Does this sound right?

Active roster:

2 RBs

2 WRs

1 Flex (RB,WR,TE)

etc.
If you're using default settings in DD, it's likely that Brown is undervalued by DD. Remember that there are no top RBs this year without questions; you have Murray changing teams, Peterson coming back from a suspension, Bell suspended. That leaves Lynch, who most don't have quite on the same tier as those other guys would have been if they were still in last year's situation.

Know that what you're trying to assess with VBD is the value a player will provide you over a replacement-level player. An important piece of that is to determine what the replacement level is. DD by default uses "Joe's Secret Formula," which I think is actually a really bad set of baselines for most leagues, but it's bad because it over-emphasizes RBs. So, look at the baseline you're using, and check it for sanity.

The piece that isn't directly measurable by DD is risk. You might have two players who are projected to score the same number of points, but there may be more risk in that projection for one than the other. You have to make that assessment yourself. Generally, the reason why the very top RBs are worth a lot more than the second-tier RBs is that they have less risk associated with them; that's part of what Joe's Secret Formula is trying to capture (but it winds up over-stating the value of all RBs). Top TEs and QBs have very little risk relative to other positions; WRs have a bit more, just because their variability outside of injury is higher.

 
Ben is locked onto Brown, and so far, no one has really been able to stop it. He's about as safe of a pick as you can have right now.

 
Ben is locked onto Brown, and so far, no one has really been able to stop it. He's about as safe of a pick as you can have right now.
Pretty much this.

Do I think that AB is gonna finish 2015 with the most VBD under the OP's lineup and scoring? No, probably not.

Would I take him at 1.1 given the positional scarcity inherent in a potential 3-RB lineup league? No, probably not.

But, to quote Bill Simmons, it's not like you're gonna lose your league because you took Antonio Brown in the first round, y'know? There's nothing wrong with basing your first pick on floor rather than ceiling, and his floor is as high or higher than anyone else's.

Bottom line, if you feel it's the right move, then go for it.

 
What about non-ppr? I feel like Dez and Demaryius have more of a track record for putting up great numbers. I'm picking 6th and the top 5 RB's i want will most likely be gone. Might go WR since I just don't trust C.J Anderson or Forte in standard TD heavy format. I'm thinking either Dez or Demaryius over AB.

 
#1, though? I pick #4. I mean, I guess I could consider him there, but not #1.
not much difference
Exactly. If you don't take brown or Gronk first overall it's only because you value rb that much more than any other position.
Generally DD can undervalue RBs a bit ... if a RB and WR are close, or within 10% VBD, and I need a RB more than a WR, I'll pick the RB.

Perfect example ...

League 1 settings: Brown 150 VBD, Peterson 110 VBD - (this is a heavy PPR league, lots of flex, with bonuses for > 100 yards)

Here you're leaving value on the table not taking a top WR.

League 2 settings: Brown 120 VBD, Peterson 110 VBD - (this is a non-PPR, no flex)

I'll take AP all day in this league.

 
Bell, fellas. Drop off between him and rb toward end of first round is huge. I'll take my chances with a wr at end of 2nd. A lot more of those to go around.

 
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What about non-ppr? I feel like Dez and Demaryius have more of a track record for putting up great numbers. I'm picking 6th and the top 5 RB's i want will most likely be gone. Might go WR since I just don't trust C.J Anderson or Forte in standard TD heavy format. I'm thinking either Dez or Demaryius over AB.
Same dilemma. Will likely have a shot at Charles or Murray but wonder of I should take brown in standard...

 
What about non-ppr? I feel like Dez and Demaryius have more of a track record for putting up great numbers. I'm picking 6th and the top 5 RB's i want will most likely be gone. Might go WR since I just don't trust C.J Anderson or Forte in standard TD heavy format. I'm thinking either Dez or Demaryius over AB.
Same dilemma. Will likely have a shot at Charles or Murray but wonder of I should take brown in standard...
Murray has a lot of risk; he's going from the perfect situation to one where the lead RB scored just 5 TDs last year, with his backup getting 62 targets (to 37 for the starter). I'd easily take Brown and a half-dozen other WRs over Murray.

Charles is a harder call; if he plays 16 games he's probably the #1 RB. The risk there is just injury.

 
I get it Brown was great last year and decent the year before (not great). PPR I totally would take Brown but not convinced the TD's will be more than Dez or DT. I'm going to go against the popular pick this year.

 
flapgreen said:
Bell, fellas. Drop off between him and rb toward end of first round is huge. I'll take my chances with a wr at end of 2nd. A lot more of those to go around.
You wish.

 
nyGIANTSnj said:
I get it Brown was great last year and decent the year before (not great). PPR I totally would take Brown but not convinced the TD's will be more than Dez or DT. I'm going to go against the popular pick this year.
You mean that year he went 110/1500?

 
Eph said:
#1, though? I pick #4. I mean, I guess I could consider him there, but not #1.
So... why do you care? You don't have pick #1, so I guess it doesn't matter that you wouldn't take him there.

 
nyGIANTSnj said:
I get it Brown was great last year and decent the year before (not great). PPR I totally would take Brown but not convinced the TD's will be more than Dez or DT. I'm going to go against the popular pick this year.
You mean that year he went 110/1500?
I know, right?

I think a very common problem fantasy football players do is overvalue potential when compared to players that have actually had great seasons a couple years in a row. I'm talking about players like Julio Jones. Not to knock him (he's a fine player) but people taking him ahead of Brown solely for potential. In the first round, you want a great player that has low risk....Brown is the epitome of this.

 
DD lists him as #1 in my last 10-team league draft I have this season.

Total Starters: 8 Number of Starting QBs: 1 Number of Starting RBs: 1-2 Number of Starting WR+TEs: 3-4 Number of Starting PKs: 1 Number of Starting Defs: 1 3 pts per TD, 0.25 pts per reception.

Draftlist from DD for this league:

# Player 1. Brown, Antonio PIT WR 2. Luck, Andrew IND QB 3. Beckham, Odell NYG WR 4. Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 5. Bryant, Dez DAL WR 6. Jones, Julio ATL WR 7. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB 8. Johnson, Calvin DET WR 9. Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 10. Cobb, Randall GBP WR 11. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB 12. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 13. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 14. Anderson, C.J. DEN RB 15. Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 16. Green, A.J. CIN WR 17. Forte, Matt CHI RB 18. Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 19. Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 20. Murray, DeMarco PHI RB 21. Forsett, Justin BAL RB 22. Hill, Jeremy CIN RB 23. McCoy, LeSean BUF RB 24. Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 25. Cooks, Brandin NOS WR 26. Evans, Mike TBB WR 27. Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR 28. Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR 29. Miller, Lamar MIA RB 30. Gore, Frank IND RB
 
I went with Antonio Brown at 1.03 in our 12 team ppr. He was #1 VBD overall by a good margin. First pick was Lacy. Bell was 2nd.

 
I went with Antonio Brown at 1.03 in our 12 team ppr. He was #1 VBD overall by a good margin. First pick was Lacy. Bell was 2nd.
what'd the rest of your draft look like? interested as I have 1.02 in my 10 team draft and thinking either Brown there or one of Bell, Charles or Lacy. Just interested in how your actual draft compares to the mocks Ive done.

 
I went with Antonio Brown at 1.03 in our 12 team ppr. He was #1 VBD overall by a good margin. First pick was Lacy. Bell was 2nd.
what'd the rest of your draft look like? interested as I have 1.02 in my 10 team draft and thinking either Brown there or one of Bell, Charles or Lacy. Just interested in how your actual draft compares to the mocks Ive done.
I had 1.3 in two drafts yesterday and went rb with the pick in one (lacy) and brown in the other.the lacy draft looks much better. Got lacy, gronk (yeah, i was shocked ), hilton, hopkins and ingram to start that draft. Got brown, Cobb, forsett (just missed hill), graham, ingram. Both drafts romo and rivers are my QB.
 
I went with Antonio Brown at 1.03 in our 12 team ppr. He was #1 VBD overall by a good margin. First pick was Lacy. Bell was 2nd.
what'd the rest of your draft look like? interested as I have 1.02 in my 10 team draft and thinking either Brown there or one of Bell, Charles or Lacy. Just interested in how your actual draft compares to the mocks Ive done.
I had 1.3 in two drafts yesterday and went rb with the pick in one (lacy) and brown in the other.the lacy draft looks much better. Got lacy, gronk (yeah, i was shocked ), hilton, hopkins and ingram to start that draft. Got brown, Cobb, forsett (just missed hill), graham, ingram. Both drafts romo and rivers are my QB.
Would enjoy getting something similar to that in mine. The guy at the 10,11 turn is a huge Gronk fan though, so probably wishful thinking there.

 
I went with Antonio Brown at 1.03 in our 12 team ppr. He was #1 VBD overall by a good margin. First pick was Lacy. Bell was 2nd.
what'd the rest of your draft look like? interested as I have 1.02 in my 10 team draft and thinking either Brown there or one of Bell, Charles or Lacy. Just interested in how your actual draft compares to the mocks Ive done.
I had 1.3 in two drafts yesterday and went rb with the pick in one (lacy) and brown in the other.the lacy draft looks much better. Got lacy, gronk (yeah, i was shocked ), hilton, hopkins and ingram to start that draft. Got brown, Cobb, forsett (just missed hill), graham, ingram. Both drafts romo and rivers are my QB.
Would enjoy getting something similar to that in mine. The guy at the 10,11 turn is a huge Gronk fan though, so probably wishful thinking there.
Gronk is an insanely polarizing player. In the lacy draft people were constantly saying 'yeah, I love Gronk, but I can't pull the trigger on a te that high'. I chuckled and gladly took him. In the brown draft he went at 1.9 and the guy thought he stole him there. In reality, it only takes one guy to fall in love with a player.

All in all, imo, if you go with brown in the first, I think you have to take a rb in the second. If i got hill and, say, hilton or Jeffery in the 3rd, I'd be much happier than i am with cobb and forsett.

 
I went with Antonio Brown at 1.03 in our 12 team ppr. He was #1 VBD overall by a good margin. First pick was Lacy. Bell was 2nd.
what'd the rest of your draft look like? interested as I have 1.02 in my 10 team draft and thinking either Brown there or one of Bell, Charles or Lacy. Just interested in how your actual draft compares to the mocks Ive done.
I had 1.3 in two drafts yesterday and went rb with the pick in one (lacy) and brown in the other.the lacy draft looks much better. Got lacy, gronk (yeah, i was shocked ), hilton, hopkins and ingram to start that draft. Got brown, Cobb, forsett (just missed hill), graham, ingram. Both drafts romo and rivers are my QB.
Would enjoy getting something similar to that in mine. The guy at the 10,11 turn is a huge Gronk fan though, so probably wishful thinking there.
Gronk is an insanely polarizing player. In the lacy draft people were constantly saying 'yeah, I love Gronk, but I can't pull the trigger on a te that high'. I chuckled and gladly took him.In the brown draft he went at 1.9 and the guy thought he stole him there. In reality, it only takes one guy to fall in love with a player.

All in all, imo, if you go with brown in the first, I think you have to take a rb in the second. If i got hill and, say, hilton or Jeffery in the 3rd, I'd be much happier than i am with cobb and forsett.
Because we combine WR and TEs his stock is very high in my league (projected REC9). Would love for him to fall to me at 2.09. There aren't really any other players I'd rather have at that 2nd round turn. doubt he's there though.

Im going to run a few more mocks to see how things shake out going REC, RB, RB, RB, and REC, REC.

I see today with the new FBG projections, Gronk went to REC1 (VBD 52.8), Brown #2 (VBD 52.3), Luck #3 (52.0), Bell #4 (51.8), Charles #5 (50.5)...interesting. I wont be taking Luck as I have Big Ben as a 13th round keeper this year.

 
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12 team

Roster: QB, 2RB, 2WR, RB/WR/TE, TE, PK, 2DB, 2LB, 1Dflex

0.5 PPR

1pt/10yards receiving and rushing

1pt/25yards passing

25yds/pt for KR/PR
First thing I thought when I read the title is "I bet the league rewards kick returns".

Antonio Brown is a cheat code in kick return leagues. 1 point per 25 isn't a huge bonus, but it's like an extra 120-150 receiving yards and 1 touchdown a year compared to his non-returner peers.

I've got Antonio Brown in a league that counts punt return yards the same as receiving yards, and Brown is miles ahead of every other WR in that format. In my format, Antonio Brown scored 514 points last year and second-place Demaryius Thomas had 414. In fact, Brown was further ahead of Thomas than Rob Gronkowski was ahead of Coby Fleener.

Return yards are the biggest example, in my opinion, of the advantage a savvy owner can gain by knowing his scoring rules inside and out.

 
12 team

Roster: QB, 2RB, 2WR, RB/WR/TE, TE, PK, 2DB, 2LB, 1Dflex

0.5 PPR

1pt/10yards receiving and rushing

1pt/25yards passing

25yds/pt for KR/PR
First thing I thought when I read the title is "I bet the league rewards kick returns".

Antonio Brown is a cheat code in kick return leagues. 1 point per 25 isn't a huge bonus, but it's like an extra 120-150 receiving yards and 1 touchdown a year compared to his non-returner peers.

I've got Antonio Brown in a league that counts punt return yards the same as receiving yards, and Brown is miles ahead of every other WR in that format. In my format, Antonio Brown scored 514 points last year and second-place Demaryius Thomas had 414. In fact, Brown was further ahead of Thomas than Rob Gronkowski was ahead of Coby Fleener.

Return yards are the biggest example, in my opinion, of the advantage a savvy owner can gain by knowing his scoring rules inside and out.
Yes, that is the case. But DD is projecting only 216 PR yards, no KR, and 0.27 TDs on PRs. That comes out to only about 10 extra points for the whole year in my scoring system..

 
One thing to keep in mind... saying "DD is telling me that Antonio Brown has a higher VBD than any of the RBs" is not the same thing as DD saying he should be selected by the team with the #1 pick.

The Player Pool window is not an order players should be drafted. A player's VBD value is one way of expressing value to your team. But for a draft where the placement of your picks limits where you can select players... the order in which players are selected and where your picks fall are an even bigger component of getting the best roster.

To make this obnoxiously clear, imagine that you have picks 1.01 and 2.12, and you know for a fact that every pick made between those will be a RB. Obviously you are better off with RB1 and WR1 than you are with WR1 and RB23. In that case you should take a RB with your #1 pick regardless of what player has the highest VBD value, because if you wait RB drops off but you can get the same exact WR with your 2nd pick.

The same principle is true with more realistic examples. The amount each position drops off along the way to your next pick matters just as much in whether the player is part of the best roster your picks can draft.

If RB drops off 100 points between those picks and WR only drops off 50, then the WR having the highest value VBD still doesn't make him a part of the best team you can put together with your set of picks. Because we can only select at certain points, we have to take that into account. An auction where you can pursue any player doesn't have this component of value based on your picks. For auctions, the VBD and the Player Pool list is a better judge of value to your roster than a draft.

In reality you should come up with a draft strategy that considers these implications all the way through your draft. Not just what happens at my 2nd pick based on my 1st pick... but what happens at my 3rd and 4th and 5th picks too based on my 1st pick.

In any event, what I'm talking about there, considering the players available at your picks, is often called "dynamic VBD" because you recalculate a value at each pick as the difference between the players at the position available now and at your next pick. It is what Draft Dominator's "Best Value" window shows.

Though even there, it has to make assumptions about how many players will be taken at each position. You want to pay attention to what it is showing. If your league drafts differently than it assumes, then adjust the numbers in it accordingly. If your league takes QBs earlier than they should, for example, you will need to change the numbers to show how many QB you think will go before your next pick.

So it's very possible Draft Dominator can be saying Brown has the highest VBD value, but could still be telling you that a RB is the Best Value for the team with the #1 pick.

 
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Thanks for the explanation, but, that's way too much work! lol

I use DD to help me pre-rank on Yahoo. That's it. Of course I compare in real-time based on what is being taken, but I don't use DD in real-time as I am drafting. No time...

 
I'll be using the mobile DD and utilizing its dynamic VBD capabilities. Its the best way Ive found to gain an edge at each of my picks over the competition. Simon Shepherd has really enhanced the capabilities of this tool. :thumbup:

 
I'll be using the mobile DD and utilizing its dynamic VBD capabilities. Its the best way Ive found to gain an edge at each of my picks over the competition. Simon Shepherd has really enhanced the capabilities of this tool. :thumbup:
Is it free for FBG subscribers? Can it import our settings from the PC version of DD?

 
I'll be using the mobile DD and utilizing its dynamic VBD capabilities. Its the best way Ive found to gain an edge at each of my picks over the competition. Simon Shepherd has really enhanced the capabilities of this tool. :thumbup:
Is it free for FBG subscribers? Can it import our settings from the PC version of DD?
its $5. You setup your settings in either my FBG or inside the app itself (better and more precise settings). Will sych to myFBG. Its awesome. Ive used it for several draft so far and for multiple mock drafts for each,

http://www.footballguys.com/footballguys-dominator-mobile.php

 

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