Best player available - or best roster construction pick? (1 Viewer)

[Judge Smails]

So the easiest thing to do is follow rankings and go Jefferson/Chase 1 or 2. No doubt they both will be monstrous. And I know the mantra has been take BPA first 25-30 picks and go from there. But what happens after you mock umpteen times and don’t like the roster construction and the decisions you have to make?

Example - say drafting 1.2 and I take one of those top 2 WR’s. Coming back I don’t love the RBs typically looking at me at 23/26. Just don’t want Rhamondre, Najee etc. The last RB I’d want in that 2nd round RB tier is Jacobs. If I go WR/QB there then I’m looking at a Dobbins or Akers type as my RB1 in round 4. And I’m not a zero RB guy to draft a bunch of split backfields types later as starters. No thanks.

On the flip side, if I take a McCaffrey or Ekeler (1/2 point PPR) then acceptable WR’s (Waddle/Olave/Ridley) usually or available along with one of the top 3 QB’s at the beginning of the 3rd. And with a balanced start (stud RB, quality WR, stud QB) then I don’t have to reach at all after that. Can truly go best player available the rest of the draft vs drafting out of need. So it’s best available player AFTER the first 3 rounds instead of early.

Thoughts? Best available player no matter what or path to best overall roster construction? It’s Jefferson/Rhamondre/Hurts or Ekeler/Waddle/Hurts. At least on paper….

 

[LawFitz]

Great and underappreciated question.

BPA early. Roster construction later. I think most peeps tend to do the exact opposite.

 

[goose_egged]

In the first couple of rounds I'm generally taking BPA. After that it starts to get increasingly contextual.

A lot depends on what kind of league it is. My main league, which is filled with my real life friends, has a highly active trade market. If I want to make a trade at fair value, selling from one position group to shore up another, I'm pretty confident a buyer will step up. I'm less worried about overstocking value in a single position through a succession of BPA picks because I expect I'll eventually be able to exchange them at par.

Anonymous leagues tend to have much less trade activity. I'll often shop value neutral deals around to shore up my lineup and get rejected everywhere. I pay much more attention to positional balance in anon league drafts. Doesn't mean I won't take a BPA in an overstocked position but the bar will be higher.

I was in a work league once where no one would trade with me at all, though some traded with others and their trades were often bizarre (not in a collusive way). I ended up with a huge number of excess RB2s and WR2s because everyone smashed the draft button early on Pro Bowl QBs in a 1QB league but no one would accept even 3 of my pieces for their RB1 or WR1 or Gronk no matter how much more viable it made their team. That was the only year of that league but if I ever played it again I would strictly observe positional balance throughout the draft at least until I had my entire starting lineup filled.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Great and underappreciated question.

BPA early. Roster construction later. I think most peeps tend to do the exact opposite.

Its hard to define a rule that should ALWAYS be followed. Going Chase / Mixon / Burrow might by BPA but not best roster construction....

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Bit of both for me.

I know that I like many of the receivers in rounds 5 and later a lot more than I like the RB's this year (that wasn't the case last season), so I will generally prioritize getting some RB depth a bit earlier in an attempt to construct a roster I think will end up more balanced. But if value appears at any time for any pick, I will take the player I think is best if they are clearly superior in the vague rankings I maintain (in my head).

If I end up with an imbalanced roster after the draft due to a particular position presenting consistent value over another, then I'll be forced into a more active trading approach earlier than I would generally attempt to do so. I usually like to wait a few weeks to see how things shape up for the majority of my roster.

This is all general though. The best rule in fantasy is to only have soft rules. You need to be able to pivot from any specific approach at any moment, especially during the draft, because you just can't predict what will present itself to you. I was going to draft RB's early last year and I started one draft with 3 WR's because those that fell to me were so clearly superior to the other options.

Be ready for anything. And always remember that the draft is just the beginning. Over a season an imbalanced roster can eventually shape itself into a perfect one. You've got at least 8 weeks to sort yours out.

 

[msudaisy26]

First 3 rounds should be BPA no matter what kind of draft you are.

Rounds 4 - 8 should be BPA if you are in a league with trades and/or waivers. If you are in a best ball/draft and go then you need to worry about roster construction.

Round 9+ should be a combo of BPA and roster construction.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What Judge is saying if I am reading him right, forget BPA early, what are the likely players I am going to be offered at the 2-23-26 spots and maybe even the 47-50 spots as well.
1-CMC
2-J.Waddle/Tee Higgins
3-Jalen Hurts
4-Miles Sanders
5-Christian Watson

RB-WR-QB-RB-WR
That is a pretty balanced start to the team, now he can just take BPA every round
VS

1-Justin Jefferson
2-Jaylen Waddle
3-Tee Higgins
4-Miles Sanders
5-JK Dobbins

WR-WR-WR-RB-RB
But many would like the 2nd team better than the 1st, matter of preference

 

[zamboni]

Bit of both for me.

Same here - I try to be flexible. A lot depends on how your league mates are strategizing themselves, and I am particularly sensitive to the barren RB landscape. Doesn’t mean making sure to grab an RB in the first 2-3 rounds if there is a clearly better WR at that spot. But you always need to be mindful of when positions like RB really drop off.

 

[cheese]

Im jamming WR early when I can, but I still like the question. RB gets gross rounds 3-5? with the Taylor/Breece situations. I still take Rhomadre, but there aren’t many guys you want there. In best ball season, zero RB teams could get Javonta/Kamara/Jcook/Pacheco in rounds 7-8-9 so zero RB looked great. My personal experience with managed home leagues tells me that’s not realistic anymore. You’d have to take most of those guys in round 6 at least.

Personally, I find myself spending on TE/QB this year because of the RB dead zone and not wanting to allocate ALL my draft capital to WRs like the OP. I like something like Chase/Olave/Hurts/MWilliams/Hockenson then taking whatever is left from the RB group above. I am spending extra roster spots on flier RB to try to even out my allocation across positions.

 

[FarFromHome]

One thing to consider is knowing your league. I've had leagues where trading is non existent. Those leagues I draft more position specific. I've also been in leagues where hours after the draft we have already had 4 trades. By far my favorite leagues then it's bpa till later rounds.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

So the easiest thing to do is follow rankings and go Jefferson/Chase 1 or 2. No doubt they both will be monstrous. And I know the mantra has been take BPA first 25-30 picks and go from there. But what happens after you mock umpteen times and don’t like the roster construction and the decisions you have to make?

Example - say drafting 1.2 and I take one of those top 2 WR’s. Coming back I don’t love the RBs typically looking at me at 23/26. Just don’t want Rhamondre, Najee etc. The last RB I’d want in that 2nd round RB tier is Jacobs. If I go WR/QB there then I’m looking at a Dobbins or Akers type as my RB1 in round 4. And I’m not a zero RB guy to draft a bunch of split backfields types later as starters. No thanks.

On the flip side, if I take a McCaffrey or Ekeler (1/2 point PPR) then acceptable WR’s (Waddle/Olave/Ridley) usually or available along with one of the top 3 QB’s at the beginning of the 3rd. And with a balanced start (stud RB, quality WR, stud QB) then I don’t have to reach at all after that. Can truly go best player available the rest of the draft vs drafting out of need. So it’s best available player AFTER the first 3 rounds instead of early.

Thoughts? Best available player no matter what or path to best overall roster construction? It’s Jefferson/Rhamondre/Hurts or Ekeler/Waddle/Hurts. At least on paper….

I had the 1.01 this year and faced the same exact dilemma. Draft Dominator and everywhere else were telling me to take Justin Jefferson, but every time I mocked out how the first 5-6 rounds would go, I was never very happy. I was a lot happier with the WRs I could get later than with the RBs that would be available later. I ended up taking CMC first overall and was very pleased with the end result.

One thing I think I've (finally) learned after decades of playing fantasy football is to just go with your gut and take the guys you want. This is a hobby, it's supposed to be fun. If you're not going to have fun starting Rhamondre and Najee at RB every week, then don't put yourself in a position to have to do that. Build the team you like best, not the one the "consensus" tells you is optimal.

 

[MrJimiT]

So the easiest thing to do is follow rankings and go Jefferson/Chase 1 or 2. No doubt they both will be monstrous. And I know the mantra has been take BPA first 25-30 picks and go from there. But what happens after you mock umpteen times and don’t like the roster construction and the decisions you have to make?

Example - say drafting 1.2 and I take one of those top 2 WR’s. Coming back I don’t love the RBs typically looking at me at 23/26. Just don’t want Rhamondre, Najee etc. The last RB I’d want in that 2nd round RB tier is Jacobs. If I go WR/QB there then I’m looking at a Dobbins or Akers type as my RB1 in round 4. And I’m not a zero RB guy to draft a bunch of split backfields types later as starters. No thanks.

On the flip side, if I take a McCaffrey or Ekeler (1/2 point PPR) then acceptable WR’s (Waddle/Olave/Ridley) usually or available along with one of the top 3 QB’s at the beginning of the 3rd. And with a balanced start (stud RB, quality WR, stud QB) then I don’t have to reach at all after that. Can truly go best player available the rest of the draft vs drafting out of need. So it’s best available player AFTER the first 3 rounds instead of early.

Thoughts? Best available player no matter what or path to best overall roster construction? It’s Jefferson/Rhamondre/Hurts or Ekeler/Waddle/Hurts. At least on paper….

I had the 1.01 this year and faced the same exact dilemma. Draft Dominator and everywhere else were telling me to take Justin Jefferson, but every time I mocked out how the first 5-6 rounds would go, I was never very happy. I was a lot happier with the WRs I could get later than with the RBs that would be available later. I ended up taking CMC first overall and was very pleased with the end result.

One thing I think I've (finally) learned after decades of playing fantasy football is to just go with your gut and take the guys you want. This is a hobby, it's supposed to be fun. If you're not going to have fun starting Rhamondre and Najee at RB every week, then don't put yourself in a position to have to do that. Build the team you like best, not the one the "consensus" tells you is optimal.

I also drew the 1.01 spot in a 14-teamer. Only I didn't find out my draft spot until 1 hour prior to draft. So I wasn't able to draw up many scenarios in a short amount of time. The preparation mess was my fault because I never dreamed I'd land #1. I planned for middle and back end of the draft but neglected the top spot prognosis. I also, sorta liked the team construct better going CMC first. But I caved due to CMC's injury history and RB wear factor. So I went with what I thought was the more reliable and consistent pick, the consensus JJ #1 overall. Interestingly enough, CMC didn't get selected until pick #4 in my draft last evening. (JJ, Ekeler, Chase, CMC).

 

[Chaka]

On the flip side, if I take a McCaffrey or Ekeler (1/2 point PPR) then acceptable WR’s (Waddle/Olave/Ridley)

For me, not only are JJ/Chase in the conversation for BPA but relative to any other RB they are far more likely to give you 17 games.

For me the WR is the slam dunk BPA.

Also, Dobbins & Akers don't appear to be in split backfields.

 

[dschuler]

I had the same dilemma, and went with CMC. I think if healthy he’s the most valuable fantasy option ahead of Chase and JJ, plus I liked my roster makeup better with him. I would rather have CMC and either Olave/Waddle than JJ and Stevenson/Najee. If CMC plays 13 games, those games I’m going to have a serious cheat code against my opponent. I don’t feel the same about any of the WRs except Kupp in a full PPR, who has injury concerns of his own and his QB.

 

[Judge Smails]

Great feedback guys. I’m going to assume this is my team and trades won’t happen. We never have an active trade market until teams start getting desperate. A couple months in. And still they’re tough to get done in our league. Most teams won’t have the depth at RB to give up a really good one for a WR.

I think this is a bigger question for those on the turns. Anybody can fall to you in the middle. But in the ends you can predict most of the runs, especially early, because people draft by ADP first several rounds. So roster construction becomes a bigger concern.

Somebody mentioned injuries and a better shot at WRs giving you more games than RBs. I’m not going to bank on that. Cupp/Chase were examples of the opposite last year. CMC/Ekeler player more games than they did.

 

[Gally]

Thoughts? Best available player no matter what or path to best overall roster construction? It’s Jefferson/Rhamondre/Hurts or Ekeler/Waddle/Hurts. At least on paper….

There are many ways to evaluate players for your combined board and there is nothing wrong with taking information from mock drafts and incorporating that into your big board. If you don't like the construction when you go WR at pick 1.02 there is nothing wrong with bumping a RB to the top of your board. After all, the difference between JJ, CHase, CMC, ????? is really minimal when all is said and done. Injury luck probably plays a bigger role in their actual final stnadings for BPA than anything else.

This is why I always try and spend the most time I can on creating my combined draft board to really make sure it matches what I think is best with respect to player value. If you do this then it should be easy at the draft by following the big board because you have put the time and effort to make sure it matches your thought process.

So to answer your question,........go with BPA but how you decide who that is, is up to you.

 

[Gally]

One thing I think I've (finally) learned after decades of playing fantasy football is to just go with your gut and take the guys you want. This is a hobby, it's supposed to be fun. If you're not going to have fun starting Rhamondre and Najee at RB every week, then don't put yourself in a position to have to do that. Build the team you like best, not the one the "consensus" tells you is optimal.

This is great advice. The whole concept of FF was giving us regular people the chance to run a team. What fun is in that if you just follow consensus of other people for who to take. The fun is putting in the effort to come up with your own conclusions and the reward is so much sweeter. This doesn't mean throw out all the "expert" information. It means take that along with your biases and evaluations and create a team you like. All information is helpful and should be included but the bottom line is to have confidence in yourself. You will have much more fun and enjoyment that way.

 

[Smack Tripper]

I have 1.01 in a 16 teamer and i would love to consider RB but really, the attrition rate feels so much higher for backs, I have to go Jefferson with things being relatively equal

 

[Brunell4MVP]

It's always about roster construction. Mayeb it's the BPA with roster construction in mind, but you have to get solid players at all skill positions,

I still remember a guy in 1999 (when QBs mattered a lot in Fantasy) going Steve Young in mid Rd 1 then Cunningham in mid round 2nd. Cunninghan despite his age had a great 1998 where he was 1st team all-pro. Young was still a stud. Young went down in week 3 for a career ending injury. Cunninham went back to being an aged QB. Nobody could really argue they weren't the BPA. But roster construction says there's no way you go 2 QBs in round 1-2. So it's roster construction from the first pick you make.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Great and underappreciated question.

BPA early. Roster construction later. I think most peeps tend to do the exact opposite.

This is always my approach.
I will look at every position. If i see a player who is far and away better than the position I was targeting, that will most often be my pick.

Of course, I’m not going to take Fields if I already took LJax, so it’s within reason.

This year in redrafts I was planning on WR heavy approach. In one league I went WR-WR-WR. In another I went RB-WR-WR, and in another I went RB-RB because that was easily the better value at the time.

I’ll add though that tiers matter a lot. I have to see enough in the same tier to fade the position for a round. For example, I’m taking a RB2 in the 2nd round. It’s because there are 8 picks between my next pick and im reasonably sure one of the WRs from the same tier (or a 1-tier drop) will be available to me.

If the WR on the board is the last one before what I perceive as a drop-off, I might forego the better value.

It’s a great question and one that always comes to mind in every draft I do. Further complicating matters is the “my guy factor” - sometimes you see “your guy” and you miss the value that fell at other positions. I try to avoid “my guy factor” whenever possible. If the stars align to get my guy, I’ll pull the trigger.

But never say never. Sometimes I’ll go build. A recent example of build over player value was Cooks Vs Collins. I took Friernouth over Cooks, because I thought Collins would make it back (he did) and I had them at about the same tier. So I took the TE because I saw a sizable drop-off after ‘Muth.

Sometimes you make that bet and lose though. It’s more art than science.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great feedback guys. I’m going to assume this is my team and trades won’t happen. We never have an active trade market until teams start getting desperate. A couple months in. And still they’re tough to get done in our league. Most teams won’t have the depth at RB to give up a really good one for a WR.

I think this is a bigger question for those on the turns. Anybody can fall to you in the middle. But in the ends you can predict most of the runs, especially early, because people draft by ADP first several rounds. So roster construction becomes a bigger concern.

Somebody mentioned injuries and a better shot at WRs giving you more games than RBs. I’m not going to bank on that. Cupp/Chase were examples of the opposite last year. CMC/Ekeler player more games than they did.

1st-CMC/Ekeler
2nd-Waddle/Higgins...whatever your preference and you could potentially take both
3rd-Jahmyr Gibbs...I know it's early but you don't like many of the other RBs around here, he's going to feast the first 6 weeks with no clear WR2, rookie TE, chunk plays
And if you don't care for him, I might double up at WR
4th-Christian Watson unless you double dip the 2/3 turn and feel like you need a RB like Miles Sanders. Jets RBs are around here and James Cook is not a bad option, won't be there 6/7
5th-Trevor Lawrence...you get more value at QB in the 5th I think vs perhaps QB on the 2/3 turn.

However you construct the team, I think what you're saying is you would be more comfortable in the 6th-10th+ rounds, the middle rounds if you didn't have your hand forced.
I like Swift from Philly as an RB3/Flex, there's others around that draft range.
Jahan Dotson as a 7th Rd WR and i wouldn't be afraid of Odell Beckham in the 8th or 9th Rd, Gabe Davis if he can play an entire season grades out around 1,000 yd and 7-8+ TDs, WR43-45 off the board right now.

 

[joey]

I don’t see how the choice between JJ and CMC is ignoring the concept of BPA. We’re talking the consensus 1.1 vs the consensus 1.3. We’re splitting hairs thinking you’re doing something “wrong” going with CMC over JJ. You’ll be doing exactly this same thing every single round at the turn when you have to theoretically “reach” for the players you want since you don’t get to pick for another 22 picks.
the whole idea of doing mocks and making tiered rankings is to get a feel for where the breaks are, what are likely scenarios for who might fall to you where, and you then plan accordingly.
I think taking CMC at 1.1 ISN’T breaking from BPA at all. Go for it if you like the roster construction you achieve when you’re seeing what’s falling to you at the 2/3 turn. Have fun. Draft players you like and build a team you like. And then if it all falls to pieces, oh well. This game is so much luck. Hell, I had the 1.1 later year, felt GREAT about my first 3 picks of JTaylor, Deebo, Fournette. Couldn’t have built a strong foundation for a winning team….finished dead last. oh well. Injuries and down years happen.

Have a great draft!

 

[CalBear]

So the easiest thing to do is follow rankings and go Jefferson/Chase 1 or 2. No doubt they both will be monstrous. And I know the mantra has been take BPA first 25-30 picks and go from there. But what happens after you mock umpteen times and don’t like the roster construction and the decisions you have to make?

Example - say drafting 1.2 and I take one of those top 2 WR’s. Coming back I don’t love the RBs typically looking at me at 23/26. Just don’t want Rhamondre, Najee etc. The last RB I’d want in that 2nd round RB tier is Jacobs. If I go WR/QB there then I’m looking at a Dobbins or Akers type as my RB1 in round 4. And I’m not a zero RB guy to draft a bunch of split backfields types later as starters. No thanks.

On the flip side, if I take a McCaffrey or Ekeler (1/2 point PPR) then acceptable WR’s (Waddle/Olave/Ridley) usually or available along with one of the top 3 QB’s at the beginning of the 3rd. And with a balanced start (stud RB, quality WR, stud QB) then I don’t have to reach at all after that. Can truly go best player available the rest of the draft vs drafting out of need. So it’s best available player AFTER the first 3 rounds instead of early.

Thoughts? Best available player no matter what or path to best overall roster construction? It’s Jefferson/Rhamondre/Hurts or Ekeler/Waddle/Hurts. At least on paper….

The question here really is, "should I pay attention to projected stats and VBD, or not?"

Because if you pay attention to projected stats and VBD, "roster construction" involves selecting the players who are projected to have the highest stats above baseline values at their positions, and your roster will score the most points if you select the highest VBD players at each opportunity.

Or, you can go with "your gut" (= a whole bunch of unexamined assumptions) because you "just don't want" the RBs available in the second round.

Your choice, of course.

 

[Saint]

Love the question. As much as I love VBD and rankings, I always fall back on looking at everything... grouping players in tiers and then mocking. While consensus 1.01 have JJ, I find him in the same tier as CMC on the RB side. When I look at scarcity of position in true bell cow RBs... there are maybe 6-7 at most in the whole draft.

So I use BPA/VBD as it relates to the tier and to the point made by @Hot Sauce Guy on evaluating how many personnel are left in a tier, I take that in consideration as well. I don't think there is any wrong way, except blinding following a ranking sheet and not looking at how the draft is falling.

On a side note, for those that follow XMFantasy.... this is why the show RosterWatch drives me absolutely bananas. Can't stand it.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

First of all, if your goal is to pick the best possible roster, you might as well just autodraft, because stats show those teams perform no worse over the course of a season than manually drafted ones.

The reason I draft my own team isn't because I do it better, it's because it's fun. Spending all the time geeking out in the Shark Pool, mock drafting up a storm and crafting my strategy is the best part of fantasy. So IMO the notion of following some script and ending up with a roster I don't like runs counter to the whole purpose. I think your should use whatever draft strategy will allow you to walk out of the draft happy with your team.

Personally, I tend to draft RBs in the first round because I find that I prefer having 2nd-round WRs like Wilson, Olave and Waddle as my WR1 to having 2nd-round RBs like Mixon, Henry or Etienne as my RB1. But that's just me

 

[bigbasket]

While I agree that the fun factor of drafting your own team is a huge part of fantasy football, I think there's a middle ground between a rigid script and complete chaos. For me, it's about finding the balance between strategy and spontaneity.
I do a ton of research beforehand, using platforms like BigBasket (love their fantasy football tools!) to analyze player stats, projections, and potential value picks. But I also keep an open mind during the draft, adjusting my strategy based on how things unfold.
For example, I might have a general preference for early-round RBs, but if a top-tier WR like Jefferson or Chase falls to me, I won't hesitate to grab them. Flexibility is key, and sometimes the best draft picks are the ones you didn't plan for.
Ultimately, the goal is to have a team you're excited about, regardless of whether it perfectly aligns with preseason rankings. It's about finding that sweet spot where your research and gut instincts come together to create a winning combination.

 

[LawFitz]

Great and underappreciated question.

BPA early. Roster construction later. I think most peeps tend to do the exact opposite.

Adding to my thoughts above from last year, I tend to pursue strong BPA bias with top 3 picks, followed by BPA with at least 2-3 of the next four. After that, it's all about roster construction for the remainder of the draft, around the core of BPAs that is accumulated early.

Great and underappreciated question.

BPA early. Roster construction later. I think most peeps tend to do the exact opposite.

Its hard to define a rule that should ALWAYS be followed. Going Chase / Mixon / Burrow might by BPA but not best roster construction....

For sure, no absolutes here. Exceptions abound, including your fine example of not overloading the same NFL offense with your premium picks. Here's another exception...

---

Next level analysis for me...

While still adhering to BPA process above, IF I am able to do enough proper ADP-based mocks pre-draft to get a feel for availability of deep value/sleeper selections later, that can sway me early on when it comes to BPA 1a vs. BPA 1b at given positions in early rounds. If I have strong out-of-consensus opinion about value guys to be had later (e.g. Purdy last season), that could sway me against taking a guy like Dak as my SF QB1, even if he falls into clear BPA range in rd 3. This scenario played out last year, and I took Dak anyway, even though my gut at that moment told me to pass for BPA2 in R3 and swing on Purdy later. Would've been a great choice had I stuck to my gut, but instead I stayed true to BPA.

>>> This isn't really an example of BPA over roster conscruction per se, but indirectly it is... In that if you think you can get near-equal value many rounds later at that position, you may want to pass for BPA2 at another position where the talent dropoff appears more likely. There's a roundabout VBD element here as well, but not exactly.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I had the 1.01 this year and faced the same exact dilemma. Draft Dominator and everywhere else were telling me to take Justin Jefferson, but every time I mocked out how the first 5-6 rounds would go, I was never very happy. I was a lot happier with the WRs I could get later than with the RBs that would be available later. I ended up taking CMC first overall and was very pleased with the end result.

One thing I think I've (finally) learned after decades of playing fantasy football is to just go with your gut and take the guys you want. This is a hobby, it's supposed to be fun. If you're not going to have fun starting Rhamondre and Najee at RB every week, then don't put yourself in a position to have to do that. Build the team you like best, not the one the "consensus" tells you is optimal.

Didn't realize at first that this was a thread from last year and came to say basically the same exact thing.

Ended up missing the playoffs last year (I took Nick Chubb at the 2/3 turn and a few later picks didn't pan out which sunk my chances), but I wouldn't change my approach. I was much happier with the team I constructed than I would've been with one the consensus rankings were telling me to take.

 

[MrJimiT]

I had the 1.01 this year and faced the same exact dilemma. Draft Dominator and everywhere else were telling me to take Justin Jefferson, but every time I mocked out how the first 5-6 rounds would go, I was never very happy. I was a lot happier with the WRs I could get later than with the RBs that would be available later. I ended up taking CMC first overall and was very pleased with the end result.

One thing I think I've (finally) learned after decades of playing fantasy football is to just go with your gut and take the guys you want. This is a hobby, it's supposed to be fun. If you're not going to have fun starting Rhamondre and Najee at RB every week, then don't put yourself in a position to have to do that. Build the team you like best, not the one the "consensus" tells you is optimal.

Didn't realize at first that this was a thread from last year and came to say basically the same exact thing.

Ended up missing the playoffs last year (I took Nick Chubb at the 2/3 turn and a few later picks didn't pan out which sunk my chances), but I wouldn't change my approach. I was much happier with the team I constructed than I would've been with one the consensus rankings were telling me to take.

I also had 1.01 last season. I ended up selecting JJ based on his injury history vs. CMC's injury history. So even though I selected the "consensus" pick, this was the final approach that I used to make my decision between the two. As fortune (or luck) would have it...I choose wrong. Of course it didn't help that I also drafted Najee, Waddle, JK Dobbins & Justin Fields in the upper portions of my draft.

 

[Gally]

>>> This isn't really an example of BPA over roster conscruction per se, but indirectly it is... In that if you think you can get near-equal value many rounds later at that position, you may want to pass for BPA2 at another position where the talent dropoff appears more likely. There's a roundabout VBD element here as well, but not exactly.

You must also factor in the risk of not getting that guy later. Best laid plans are that things go as ADP says or that other assumptions come true. All it takes is one outlier and it can completely muck up this great plan of yours. Obviously you need to make decisions and sometimes you can pass on a guy because you think another guy is just as good later. That sometimes will make you reach for that other player because you now have to make sure you get him so it may skew other roster construction situations.

All that to say, every decision has consequences later on down the road and putting your eggs in one later round player can backfire tremendously.

 

[LawFitz]

every decision has consequences later on down the road and putting your eggs in one later round player can backfire tremendously.

For sure. Always risk/reward processing.