Whew! Go to lunch at the 21 Club for a couple of hours and Tom goes and fans the flames of dissention!
First, let me echo what others have said, tombonneau, I usually agree with a lot of what you say but in this case I feel compelled to point out a few flaws in your logic (as well as point out a few areas that I completely am in agreement with you), if I may.
1)
LT doesn't have breakaway speed -- You've already admitted that such a statement was flawed. Not only did LT have a longer run than Portis last year, but he also had more 'big gains' as defined by Stats Inc (49 to 37). On a relative basis (i.e., big gains to total carries) it was almost dead even (CP = 1BG/7.4 carries, LT = 1BG/7.6 carries)
2)
Emmitt, and is LT like Emmitt? -- It's interesting that you should bring Emmitt into the equation; especially as an example of why LT shouldn't be the number one pick. Emmitt Smith may have been a compiler in your eyes, but how is that a bad thing in fantasy football?
Emmitt Smith is arguably the best fantasy running back of ALL TIME:
Seven straight years ranked in the top 10 fantasy RBs
Four years ranked #1 (in a row!)
Finished 7th or better in nine of his first ten years
Five straight years in the top 4 OVERALL (i.e., highest VBD)
Eight top 10 OVERALL fantasy finishes in his first ten yearsThis guy, along with Eric Dickerson, are the litmus tests by which all fantasy RBs should be judged.
And IN FACT, I'm not sure the stats bear out your contention that Emmitt was a compiler versus the other GREAT BACKS. Witness, of the sixteen RBs in NFL history with 10,000 or more rushing yards, Emmitt's 4.2 YPC ranks 8th.
And to put a final point on the Emmitt Smith aspect, LT has been quoted as saying that he patterns himself after Emmitt, and Emmitt has responded by saying that if any back in the league has a shot at breaking his record, he thinks it will be LT2.
3)
That a higher YPC makes you more likely to finish at the top of the RB rankings -- There is no question that total production is correlated to YPC. Obviously a running back has two ways to increase his rushing yardage...get more carries and get more yards per carry. So clearly, all things being equal a RB with a higher YPC will finish higher. But it's only part of the equation. Will LT2 get another 370 carries? I don't expect as such, but it's not a foregone conclusion that he won't. On the flipside, what makes you think Portis will get a significantly higher number of carries this year? Even if you believe Portis will shoulder a 320+ carry workload, as Chase pointed out...there is absolutely no reason to believe that Portis will sustain his YPC with the added workload.
Another point re: YPC...who's to say LT cannot improve his YPC yet again this year? The line made huge strides last year, it's certainly not unreasonable that the line could improve again. There's also the presence of a new fullback, and the addition of Boston into the mix. Really not out of the realm of possibility.
The league's leading rusher does not typically have the best YPC (of 1,000 yard backs). It's happened just 5 times in the last 20 years:
2002 -- Leading rusher, Williams/ Highest YPC, Portis
2001 -- Leading rusher, Holmes/ Highest YPC, Faulk
2000 -- Leading rusher, Edge/ Highest YPC, Faulk
1999 -- Leading rusher, Edge/ Highest YPC, Faulk
1998 --
Leading rusher, TD/ Highest YPC, TD
1997 --
Leading rusher, Barry/ Highest YPC, Barry
1996 --
Leading rusher, Barry/ Highest YPC, Barry
1995 -- Leading rusher, Emmitt/ Highest YPC, Barry
1994 --
Leading rusher, Barry/ Highest YPC, Barry
1993 --
Leading rusher, Emmitt/ Highest YPC, Emmitt
1992 -- Leading rusher, Emmitt/ Highest YPC, Watters
1991 -- Leading rusher, Emmitt/ Highest YPC, Thurman Thomas
1990 -- Leading rusher, Barry/ Highest YPC, Brooks
1989 -- Leading rusher, Okoye
/ Highest YPC, Brooks
1988 -- Leading rusher, Dickerson/ Highest YPC, Ickey Woods
1987 -- STRIKE
1986 -- Leading rusher, Dickerson/ Highest YPC, Brooks
1985 -- Leading rusher, Marcus Allen/ Highest YPC, Stump Mitchell
1984 -- Leading rusher, Eric Dickerson/ Highest YPC, Sammy Winder
1983 -- Leading rusher, Dickerson/ Highest YPC, Tony Collins4)
Focusing on rushing yards at the expense of receiving prowess/TD production -- Tombonneau's talk of YPC and explosiveness completely discounts the fact that rushing yards are but one of three key metrics for FANTASY PERFORMANCE. It's not just who is the most likely to rush for the most yards, it's also who scores the most and who are the most prolific receivers out of the backfield. To that end, Portis is at a disadvantage to LT and possibly Ricky. LT caught 79 balls last year and the team has talked about how he's worked on route running and will be lined up in the slot as a receiver (a la Faulk) some this year. Meanwhile Portis has not proven himself to be as good a receiver and MORE IMPORTANTLY, Shanahan's offense has never favored throwing to the RB a lot. Portis is a product of his system, and that system suggests he isn't going to be worked into the receiving game as adequately as LT2.
As to TD production, Portis clearly has the edge in the department in their early careers (Portis scored 15 TDs in 273 rushes, LT2 scored 14 in 372)...but remember that TD production is the most variable aspect of fantasy scoring, by a wide margin.
To conclude, I'm not suggesting that LT2 should be a lock as the 1st overall pick, but it's absolute HYPERBOLE to suggest that he's not worthy of being in the hunt. He's clearly one of the most viable options along with a handful of other backs. I echo the others' sentiments that it's probably better to have a mid first round pick this year because of the depth at the top tier, but to many of the reasons tombonneau gave to dismiss arguably the best all around back in football simply don't hold much water from a historical context.
CHEERS!