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Dynasty Rookie Draft (1 Viewer)

Mr. Peterson

Mr. Peterson

Footballguy
With the order pretty much all set and we have a couple Mocks out there I was wondering if anyone had any ideas what the 1st round of a Dynasty draft might look like. I belong to a Zealots league and we have a 12 team draft and thats typically what I see out there. I don't know enough about this rookie class coming in but it seems like the top 3 are pretty obvious but I can't get too much past that.

1. Peterson

2. Lynch

3. Johnson

 
Mr. Peterson said:
With the order pretty much all set and we have a couple Mocks out there I was wondering if anyone had any ideas what the 1st round of a Dynasty draft might look like. I belong to a Zealots league and we have a 12 team draft and thats typically what I see out there. I don't know enough about this rookie class coming in but it seems like the top 3 are pretty obvious but I can't get too much past that. 1. Peterson2. Lynch3. Johnson
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I'm glad you started this thread because we know we pretty much have a top 3, but after that it gets murky until we know who is coming out and how the combine and draft goes. What I would like to hear from some of the guys that follow this stuff very closely is a list of 10-15 other players that you think will be in that 1st - early 2nd round as of right now and maybe a little snippet about how you see them contributing or compare them to an NFL player.I know the toughest part about the early off-season for me is trying to gauge some of these guys as NFL players and putting a draft round value on them early to see if their stock goes up or down during the combine and draft.Thanks in advance to anyone who chimes in with this kind of info!!
 
Mr. Peterson said:
With the order pretty much all set and we have a couple Mocks out there I was wondering if anyone had any ideas what the 1st round of a Dynasty draft might look like. I belong to a Zealots league and we have a 12 team draft and thats typically what I see out there. I don't know enough about this rookie class coming in but it seems like the top 3 are pretty obvious but I can't get too much past that. 1. Peterson2. Lynch3. Johnson
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im thinking1. Peterson2. Johnson3. Lynch4. Jarrett5. Hunt6. Ginn7. Quinn8. Russell9. Bush10. Brohm
 
1. Lynch

2. peterson

3. Johnson

4. Irons

5. Bush

6. Quinn

7. Ginn

8. Russell

9. Jarett

10. Hunt

11. T. Smith

12. Meachem

 
It depends on your league's scoring. Johnson, Peterson, Lynch, Jarrett, and Ginn are the elite offensive prospects. After those guys, a lot will depend on which second tier RBs are drafted when and by whom. All we can do right now is guess. In a PPR, I'd say it will go something like this:

1. Adrian Peterson - Name recognition should keep him at #1, even if he's not really the best prospect available.

2. Marshawn Lynch - Solid. Could easily go before Peterson when all is said and done, and could be a better pro.

3. Calvin Johnson - Best player in the draft. Should be the #1 pick in PPR, but teams at the top usually need RBs.

4. Dwayne Jarrett - Underrated all along. Not as good as Johnson, but still projects as a #1 WR.

5. Kenny Irons - Every year a couple second tier RBs move up into the top 6 picks. Irons should be a top 90 pick in the NFL draft.

6. Ted Ginn - One of the true boom-or-bust picks in this class. Ginn could either be a complete star or a complete flop. He'll go early in the NFL draft, which means someone in your league will roll the dice.

7. Brady Quinn - This is about where the QB1 tends to go. There are lots of Notre Dame fans out there, which means Quinn could go earlier than expected in some leagues.

8. Lorenzo Booker - Booker will be a 2nd-3rd round pick come April and is a good sleeper. Could wind up going higher than this in rookie drafts if he lands in a favorable situation.

9. Tony Hunt - Don't know much about him, but RBs are always in demand.

10. Jamarcus Russell - Top high school prospect will be a first round NFL pick.

11. Jeff Samardzija - Could go in the first round. I don't like him, but someone might take a chance.

12. Michael Bush - I don't see any reason to believe he'll do any better than Eric Shelton, but that doesn't mean an NFL team won't pick him.

Names to watch:

Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee

Jason Hill, WR, Washington State

Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina

Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU

Craig Davis, WR, LSU

Dwayne Wright, RB, Fresno State

Tyrone Moss, RB, Miami

Gary Russell, RB, Minnesota

Greg Olsen, TE, Miami

 
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as of this moment (not my personal rankings, just a projection)

1. Peterson

2. Johnson (flip if PPR and start 3 WR)

3. Lynch

4. Jarrett

5. Ginn

6. Quinn

7. Russell

8. Brohm

9. Hunt

10.Booker

11.Irons

12.Samardzija

of course some RBs stock will get overinflated by draft position. Bush will go first if he comes out, but I think its more likely that he asks for a medical redshirt. Antonio Pittman is somewhere in the latter half of the first if he declares. Troy Smith if he's 6'0" or above and therefore goes in the first round of the real draft.

Still very, very early, but we will be covering this rookie class in depth all offseason. The first Bloom 100 (w/o commentary) should come out before the Super Bowl.

 
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Far too early for a dynasty draft list, especially since you don't know which teams they are on.

Peterson to Cleveland? No way I would draft him in the top 3.

Hunt to NYJ? hmmmm......

Lynch to Detroit? Could see it, depending on their other moves.

Johnson to Oakland? Who's throwin' the rock? Decent QB, okay. Walters? Not worth it.

 
EBF said:
12. Michael Bush - I don't see any reason to believe he'll do any better than Eric Shelton, but that doesn't mean an NFL team won't pick him.

I'm not getting the Shelton comparison with Bush..?? :hot: The only similarity is size; Bush has better speed . more agility and is much more versitale.

Gary Russell, RB, Minnesota

Anyone have any info on what Russell has been doing since leaving the

Badgers...??
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nightshift said:
Far too early for a dynasty draft list, especially since you don't know which teams they are on.Peterson to Cleveland? No way I would draft him in the top 3.Hunt to NYJ? hmmmm......Lynch to Detroit? Could see it, depending on their other moves.Johnson to Oakland? Who's throwin' the rock? Decent QB, okay. Walters? Not worth it.
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I do realize that we don't know for sure who is coming out early and where they will end up.Just to clarify, what I was asking for was basically a watch list similar to a national award (Outland Trophy, or whatever) when they list some guys that have a chance to win it if they play well. I could name several players in the Big 12 that could be drafted or whatever, but since I don't watch every ACC, SEC, WAC, etc.. game there are guys that I may not know about due to geographic TV restrictions. For instance, I didn't know much about Hunt at Penn State until recently because I'm usually at college football games during the season.BTW, why wouldn't you draft AP if he went to Cleveland? Virtually no competition and a healthy LeCharles Bentley could make a huge difference on the OL.
 
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One of the reason I'm curious is because I have a couple picks in this years rookie draft. I was wondering if I should consider trying to move up or if I should trade out of the 1st and maybe get more picks for next year (sounds like next years rookie class will be much better than this one).

 
bentley had a staph infection and they have to perform another surgery, but they have to wait until later in 07... he won't be able to resume his career until 08... he has the kind of work ethic to be an exception, but the track record of OL missing two full seasons & coming back strong probably isn't a good one...

i have this exact dilemna... i'm thinking about taking johnson first overall in a NON-PPR league, just because i need WRs as much or more in that league, & i think he is the most bullet-proof prospect in the draft...

it already looks like he may be as good or better than fitzgerald, & fitz has had the most successful two year start to his career for a WR in league history (by measure of receptions... not in TDs & don't think so in yards)... in terms of physical ability & raw talent, he will immediately be near top of NFL WRs his rookie year...

IF AD is another LT or LJ, that could be harsh to pass on him, but i'm not as sure peterson becomes a top RB as johnson does a top WR...

if he goes to OAK (my guess once they see his numbers at combine), it is a concern... just as AD to CLE would be...

 
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Sigmund Bloom said:
as of this moment (not my personal rankings, just a projection)1. Peterson2. Johnson (flip if PPR and start 3 WR)3. Lynch4. Jarrett5. Ginn6. Quinn7. Russell8. Brohm9. Hunt10.Booker11.Irons12.Samardzijaof course some RBs stock will get overinflated by draft position. Bush will go first if he comes out, but I think its more likely that he asks for a medical redshirt. Antonio Pittman is somewhere in the latter half of the first if he declares. Troy Smith if he's 6'0" or above and therefore goes in the first round of the real draft.Still very, very early, but we will be covering this rookie class in depth all offseason. The first Bloom 100 (w/o commentary) should come out before the Super Bowl.
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Going into the season, guys like Kenneth Darby and Deshawn Wynn were more highly regarded, just curious as to your take if they were to impress at the combine/Sr. Bowl if you could see them slipping up the list?
 
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Sigmund Bloom said:
as of this moment (not my personal rankings, just a projection)1. Peterson2. Johnson (flip if PPR and start 3 WR)3. Lynch4. Jarrett5. Ginn6. Quinn7. Russell8. Brohm9. Hunt10.Booker11.Irons12.Samardzijaof course some RBs stock will get overinflated by draft position. Bush will go first if he comes out, but I think its more likely that he asks for a medical redshirt. Antonio Pittman is somewhere in the latter half of the first if he declares. Troy Smith if he's 6'0" or above and therefore goes in the first round of the real draft.Still very, very early, but we will be covering this rookie class in depth all offseason. The first Bloom 100 (w/o commentary) should come out before the Super Bowl.
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Is it a foregone conclusion that Russell & Brohm will declare?
 
EBF said:
9. Tony Hunt - Don't know much about him, but RBs are always in demand.
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As a PSU alum I've seen a ton of Hunt. He reminds me of Eddie George. He doesn't have the speed or moves to outrun most defenders or make them miss. He is only average a quickness. But he is very tough, has a great forward lean when he runs and seldom can be arm-tackled. He also is a fantastic pass blocker, has decent hands (although they didn't throw to him much) and is a solid character guy. No big injuries, although he did miss most of the Orange Bowl last year. I can see him being one of those plodding horses like George that gets the ball 25 times a game and has decent results, but doesn't break long runs or have a high per carry average. Like George, he seems to get stronger as the game goes on. In the right situation, he could be a Pro Bowl player and a top 10 fantasy RB. But in a situation in which he splits carries or is expected to run outside the tackles, I don't think he'll be as successful. He may drop in the draft or in fantasy circles because I don't expect him to time very well, but he is a very good football player.
 
Safe to assume that most Rookie Drafts will be

A) RB-heavy

B) Based mostly on the NFL draft position of each player

With that in mind here is my predicted ADP for the upcoming Rookies:

Consensous Top 3

1) Adrian Peterson

2) Marshawn Lynch

3) Calvin Johnson

A notch below

4) Tony Hunt

5) Antonio Pittman

6) Kenny Irons

7) Brady Quinn

8) Dwayne Jarrett

9) Sidney Rice*

10) Ted Ginn Jr.

11) JaMarcus Russell

Could sneak into top 10

Brian Brohm*

Robert Meachem*

Troy Smith

Michael Bush*

Lorenzo Booker

Jeff Samardzija

*Might stay in school (I think Brohm and Bush stay but the rest come out)

 
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aposulli said:
Safe to assume that most Rookie Drafts will be

A) RB-heavy

B) Based mostly on the NFL draft position of each player

With that in mind here is my predicted ADP for the upcoming Rookies:

Consensous Top 3

1) Adrian Peterson

2) Marshawn Lynch

3) Calvin Johnson

A notch below

4) Tony Hunt

5) Antonio Pittman*

6) Kenny Irons

7) Brady Quinn

8) Dwayne Jarrett

9) Sidney Rice*

10) Ted Ginn Jr.

11) JaMarcus Russell

Could sneak into top 10

Brian Brohm*

Robert Meachem*

Troy Smith

Michael Bush*

Lorenzo Booker

Jeff Samardzija

*Might stay in school (I think Brohm and Bush stay but the rest come out)
Click to expand...
FYI, Pittman declared.
 
Brewzers said:
aposulli said:
Safe to assume that most Rookie Drafts will be

A) RB-heavy

B) Based mostly on the NFL draft position of each player

With that in mind here is my predicted ADP for the upcoming Rookies:

Consensous Top 3

1) Adrian Peterson

2) Marshawn Lynch

3) Calvin Johnson

A notch below

4) Tony Hunt

5) Antonio Pittman*

6) Kenny Irons

7) Brady Quinn

8) Dwayne Jarrett

9) Sidney Rice*

10) Ted Ginn Jr.

11) JaMarcus Russell

Could sneak into top 10

Brian Brohm*

Robert Meachem*

Troy Smith

Michael Bush*

Lorenzo Booker

Jeff Samardzija

*Might stay in school (I think Brohm and Bush stay but the rest come out)
Click to expand...
FYI, Pittman declared.
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:bye: Players usually waffle this time of year, but usually it's someone saying they're leaning toward staying, then they jump to the draft. If someone hinted that they are going to delclare, I'd tend to believe them.

Pittman has a good chance to be RB3 if he can shine at teh workouts.

 
I always like early rankings of college prospects because these rankings are based more on talent than situation. Situation is very important of course but talent rises to the top even if some paitience is required.

I apprechiate those knowledgable of college players contributing to this. :bye:

 
:loco:

Players usually waffle this time of year, but usually it's someone saying they're leaning toward staying, then they jump to the draft. If someone hinted that they are going to delclare, I'd tend to believe them.

Pittman has a good chance to be RB3 if he can shine at teh workouts.

Sorry, jumping the gun, he has filed his papers and is now draft eligible.

 
Yo Eleven said:
Going into the season, guys like Kenneth Darby and Deshawn Wynn were more highly regarded, just curious as to your take if they were to impress at the combine/Sr. Bowl if you could see them slipping up the list?
Click to expand...
Sure, all of this is subject to change... Kolby Smith could move up with a good 40 time too.
 
The RBs I have behind Irons/Pittman/Hunt/Booker who I think COULD jump into the top 5-7 with an exemplary workout...

Kenneth Darby

Selvin Young

Chris Henry

Dwayne Wright

Kolby Smith

DeShawn Wynn

 
I like aposulli's tiering method. It gives a clearer seperation of viewpoint on comparable talent level than just a straight ranking. Or ranking seperated by position without knowing where the tiers/dropoffs exist.

Looking forward to when more information causes these lists to expand as well as other peoples views using the same method.

I recognise this as a different thing than ranking by how NFL teams will draft. And it is more useful to dynasty players taking a longer view of comparative value of players extending into the 2nd or later rounds of thier drafts. And who the darkhorses may be.

 
Looking at the #4 slot in my dynasty league so this discussion is making me think I couldn't be in a worse spot in the draft the way things stand today. There is pretty much the consensus top 3, talentwise and I'm going to be in the spot that either reaches on a RB that rises above the rest of the second tier with good workouts or ends up getting drafted by the right team. Jarrett definitely plays like an elite prospect but I really hated to see the showboating he was doing against UM. Should have lost one more game and I'd be looking at Lynch or Johnson.

 
Men-in-Cleats said:
Looking at the #4 slot in my dynasty league so this discussion is making me think I couldn't be in a worse spot in the draft the way things stand today. There is pretty much the consensus top 3, talentwise and I'm going to be in the spot that either reaches on a RB that rises above the rest of the second tier with good workouts or ends up getting drafted by the right team. Jarrett definitely plays like an elite prospect but I really hated to see the showboating he was doing against UM. Should have lost one more game and I'd be looking at Lynch or Johnson.
Click to expand...
I have the #4 and #5 in HyperActive (PPR) and will be happy with Jarrett and Ginn. None of the RB's after Peterson and Lynch do anything for me right now.
 
aposulli said:
Safe to assume that most Rookie Drafts will be

A) RB-heavy

B) Based mostly on the NFL draft position of each player

With that in mind here is my predicted ADP for the upcoming Rookies:

Consensous Top 3

1) Adrian Peterson

2) Marshawn Lynch

3) Calvin Johnson

A notch below

4) Tony Hunt

5) Antonio Pittman

6) Kenny Irons

7) Brady Quinn

8) Dwayne Jarrett

9) Sidney Rice*

10) Ted Ginn Jr.

11) JaMarcus Russell

Could sneak into top 10

Brian Brohm*

Robert Meachem*

Troy Smith

Michael Bush*

Lorenzo Booker

Jeff Samardzija

*Might stay in school (I think Brohm and Bush stay but the rest come out)
Click to expand...
:popcorn:
 
Looks like Johnson can be removed from the list.

According to an ACJ article. Those closest to him want him to finish school.

"My advice is to stay in the present," said Arica Johnson, Calvin's mother. "Do everything you need to do, and everything will fit together like the pieces of a puzzle."

 
lod2005 said:
Looks like Johnson can be removed from the list. According to an ACJ article. Those closest to him want him to finish school. "My advice is to stay in the present," said Arica Johnson, Calvin's mother. "Do everything you need to do, and everything will fit together like the pieces of a puzzle."
Click to expand...
:thumbup: Wait til the agents get a hold of him.
 
BigTex said:
lod2005 said:
Looks like Johnson can be removed from the list. According to an ACJ article. Those closest to him want him to finish school. "My advice is to stay in the present," said Arica Johnson, Calvin's mother. "Do everything you need to do, and everything will fit together like the pieces of a puzzle."
Click to expand...
:thumbup: Wait til the agents get a hold of him.
Click to expand...
leinart and willis mcgahee (injury) are the perfect examples of why you go, when you are top 5... not for the nfl team that drafts you, not for your education (i think the school will be there in the offseason) get injured with a nfl contract, and maximize it, for you, for your family....
 
lod2005 said:
Looks like Johnson can be removed from the list. According to an ACJ article. Those closest to him want him to finish school. "My advice is to stay in the present," said Arica Johnson, Calvin's mother. "Do everything you need to do, and everything will fit together like the pieces of a puzzle."
Click to expand...
It's great that his mom wants him to stay, but I'll wait until I hear it from the horse's mouth before I write him off. As of now, I think it's safe to assume he'll be in the draft.
 
noneother said:
BigTex said:
lod2005 said:
Looks like Johnson can be removed from the list. According to an ACJ article. Those closest to him want him to finish school. "My advice is to stay in the present," said Arica Johnson, Calvin's mother. "Do everything you need to do, and everything will fit together like the pieces of a puzzle."
Click to expand...
:eek: Wait til the agents get a hold of him.
Click to expand...
leinart and willis mcgahee (injury) are the perfect examples of why you go, when you are top 5... not for the nfl team that drafts you, not for your education (i think the school will be there in the offseason) get injured with a nfl contract, and maximize it, for you, for your family....
Click to expand...
:thumbup: He can always go back and get his education.
 
EBF said:
lod2005 said:
Looks like Johnson can be removed from the list.

According to an ACJ article. Those closest to him want him to finish school.

"My advice is to stay in the present," said Arica Johnson, Calvin's mother. "Do everything you need to do, and everything will fit together like the pieces of a puzzle."
Click to expand...
It's great that his mom wants him to stay, but I'll wait until I hear it from the horse's mouth before I write him off. As of now, I think it's safe to assume he'll be in the draft.
Click to expand...
I'll keep you posted :yawn:
 
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I still like Quinn...hopefully last night's game scared enough fantasy owners to let him drop to the end of round 1!! :thumbup:

 
lod2005 said:
Looks like Johnson can be removed from the list.

According to an ACJ article. Those closest to him want him to finish school.

"My advice is to stay in the present," said Arica Johnson, Calvin's mother. "Do everything you need to do, and everything will fit together like the pieces of a puzzle."
Click to expand...
AJC ArticleI did not get a feel from the article he was being pressured to stay. His family is well educated, but I did not get the feel it leaned one way or another. She stated she wanted him to have the college experience, which I'd say he has.

 
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BigTex said:
noneother said:
BigTex said:
lod2005 said:
Looks like Johnson can be removed from the list. According to an ACJ article. Those closest to him want him to finish school. "My advice is to stay in the present," said Arica Johnson, Calvin's mother. "Do everything you need to do, and everything will fit together like the pieces of a puzzle."
Click to expand...
:ph34r: Wait til the agents get a hold of him.
Click to expand...
leinart and willis mcgahee (injury) are the perfect examples of why you go, when you are top 5... not for the nfl team that drafts you, not for your education (i think the school will be there in the offseason) get injured with a nfl contract, and maximize it, for you, for your family....
Click to expand...
:whoosh: He can always go back and get his education.
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Agreed, but with this, now may be the time to trade the 1.03. (Or trade for it if you believe he'll declare.)
 
FUBAR said:
BigTex said:
noneother said:
BigTex said:
lod2005 said:
Looks like Johnson can be removed from the list. According to an ACJ article. Those closest to him want him to finish school. "My advice is to stay in the present," said Arica Johnson, Calvin's mother. "Do everything you need to do, and everything will fit together like the pieces of a puzzle."
Click to expand...
:towelwave: Wait til the agents get a hold of him.
Click to expand...
leinart and willis mcgahee (injury) are the perfect examples of why you go, when you are top 5... not for the nfl team that drafts you, not for your education (i think the school will be there in the offseason) get injured with a nfl contract, and maximize it, for you, for your family....
Click to expand...
:towelwave: He can always go back and get his education.
Click to expand...
Agreed, but with this, now may be the time to trade the 1.03. (Or trade for it if you believe he'll declare.)
Click to expand...
yup.. dealt reggie bush and all three of my rookie picks (3, 22, 27 overall) for LT in his last contract year....
 
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elpasotexan said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
Meachem should end up in the 10-15 range.
Click to expand...
10-15 in PPR? I don't know much about him, but he plays in a good conference and put up big #s this year. What makes him rank so low?
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You also described Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn, Dwayne Jarrett, and Sidney Rice. Samarzdija also migth go ahead of him.In PPR leagues, I suppose WRs are worth drafting early in Rookie Drafts, but RBs are generally the cream of the crop, and most all leagues will likely have 2 QBs in the top 5-10.
 
For a standard 12 team, FBG scoring, I'd imagine something along the lines of:

1. Peterson

2. Lynch

3. Hunt***

4. C. Johnson

5. Russell

6. Jarrett

7. Irons

8. Pittman

9. Ginn

10. Booker

11. Quinn

12. Meachem

** #3 and possibly 4 will end up being a RB in the best situation. Players like Addai and Lendale from last season, JJ Arrington from 2005. In this group I could see Hunt, Pittman, Booker, or Irons at this point. If someone has a stunning day at the combine, he could get bumped into this slot.

Calvin Johnson will go 3-5 to the team that needs WR the most. I would draft him 1st overall if given the opportunity.

 
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