humpback said:
cstu said:
Kicking the FG on 4th and 6 was clearly the right call. Failing to do so is falling victim to two common fallacies; equating a TD with 8 points, and equating a tie with a win. As we saw, an 8-point game isn't a one-score game; it's a TD and a 2-point conversion game, and that's just to tie. The 2-point conversion is less than 50%, and OT is 50%, so your odds of winning after scoring a TD in an 8 point game is less than 25%.
So that's your best-case scenario going for it on fourth and six. And making it on fourth and six is even lower than 50%, so now you're down at less than a 10% chance to win. If you kick the FG with 2:25 to go, what are your chances with all three TOs of stopping Denver and scoring a TD? Gotta be better than 10%. (And that's what actually happened).
I'll go one step further and say they should have kicked a FG with 4th and 1 at the 16. Making that puts them down 5 with 6 minutes left. All they need then is a stop, which they got, and a TD (or two FG's). They wouldn't have even needed the Gronk TD at the end and could have milked the clock down to zero and kicked the game-winning FG with no time left.
BB was way too aggressive in a game where Peyton wasn't moving the ball well.
The common fallacy that you guys are falling victim to is that everything would have played out exactly the same way if they had kicked the FG (either time).
Of course these decisions are going to be scrutinized (which is the reason most coaches generally aren't aggressive enough IMO), but I think you can make a pretty good argument either way.
Of course the game wouldn't have been the same. But I'd rather be down five kicking off with 2:25 to go and 3 timeouts, than down eight going for it on fourth and 6 with 2:25 to go.
That's nice, but it doesn't change the fact that those aren't the only two possibilities, nor does it change the fact that we can't say for sure which of those options gives them the better chance to win the game.
It was a pretty simple decision; kick the FG or go for it. Assuming a 33-yard FG is more or less an extra point, let's call it 94%. I'll leave out the scenario where you miss the FG and still win the game, so assume you lose 6% of the time for missing the FG. Now you're kicking off with 2:25 left down 5 with 3 TOs. Do you think you have less than a 10% chance of winning in that scenario? You need to keep the other team from getting two first downs, and then score a TD. Seems not too hard. 15, 20%?
But you only need one yard, and you haven't gotten so far all game. They convert and tie the game with minutes to spare, or get within two with enough time to force a stop and maybe go for the win, or, at worst, lose a little more time and kick the fg (ending up with the scenario you describe).
I happen to agree with you: Take the points, give your D some credit (I wonder if it had been even only 4th and 2, if that's what would have happened). But it's certainly not as cut-and-dried as you describe. (EDIT: Obviously I'm talking about the first 4th down call. I think 4th and 6 had to happen. Even with all the timeouts, at 2:25, one first down and you're screwed).
I think Bill Belichick deserves to be second-guessed; I'm not sure anybody on this message board is qualified to do it.
Congrats to the Broncos fans. Manning's got a chance to go out just like Elway did.
