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It makes sense to go wr. The problem for me on probably a few others is the dynasty league where i have the 1.1 Is a start 2 RB league and my only starters are Rice and Mathews/Tolbert. While at WR I have Jennings/Miles Austin/Maclin/Stevie Johnson. So i really could use that 3rd starting RB for byes or injuries over the WR. So im really hoping Ingram or Leshoure go to a team where they are clearly going to be the starter..if both go to a real crappy situation i might be forced to go WR and take a chance I pick the damn wrong one between Green and Julio at 1.1'Scooby1974 said:
Can't you trade the pick for decent upside player?It makes sense to go wr. The problem for me on probably a few others is the dynasty league where i have the 1.1 Is a start 2 RB league and my only starters are Rice and Mathews/Tolbert. While at WR I have Jennings/Miles Austin/Maclin/Stevie Johnson. So i really could use that 3rd starting RB for byes or injuries over the WR. So im really hoping Ingram or Leshoure go to a team where they are clearly going to be the starter..if both go to a real crappy situation i might be forced to go WR and take a chance I pick the damn wrong one between Green and Julio at 1.1'Scooby1974 said:
If i trade that pick its going to be for a decent proven player, not an upside one lolI actually traded for the 1.1 pick a couple months ago. Gave up Hillis (who im not a believer in) and beanie/hightower who have been a headache and disappointment to own...Can't you trade the pick for decent upside player?It makes sense to go wr. The problem for me on probably a few others is the dynasty league where i have the 1.1 Is a start 2 RB league and my only starters are Rice and Mathews/Tolbert. While at WR I have Jennings/Miles Austin/Maclin/Stevie Johnson. So i really could use that 3rd starting RB for byes or injuries over the WR. So im really hoping Ingram or Leshoure go to a team where they are clearly going to be the starter..if both go to a real crappy situation i might be forced to go WR and take a chance I pick the damn wrong one between Green and Julio at 1.1'Scooby1974 said:
Take Green and trade Johnson or Austin for a RB.It makes sense to go wr. The problem for me on probably a few others is the dynasty league where i have the 1.1 Is a start 2 RB league and my only starters are Rice and Mathews/Tolbert. While at WR I have Jennings/Miles Austin/Maclin/Stevie Johnson. So i really could use that 3rd starting RB for byes or injuries over the WR. So im really hoping Ingram or Leshoure go to a team where they are clearly going to be the starter..if both go to a real crappy situation i might be forced to go WR and take a chance I pick the damn wrong one between Green and Julio at 1.1'Scooby1974 said:
'Scooby1974 said:
Is the consensus right now that Ingram and LeShoure won't turn into a Frank Gore type (Pro-Bowl---1300 yards/10+ TD's) if they land in a decent spot? What if they landed in the PERFECT system for their skills? Incidentally, what IS the perfect situation for these guys skills? What if AJ Green lands in Carolina or Cleveland (in other words, without a QB). Does it behoove a dynasty owner to take Green/Julio in a terrible situation over an Ingram/LeShoure in a good to great situation?I know everyone probably has their own preference with this, but I'm curious what you guys are thinking, and why?'moderated said:
I took over a very depleted dynasty team in February with the 1.4 pick in a PPR league. The only worthwhile RBs were SJax, Greene, and Hardesty. I traded up to 1.1 to get a WR and traded away SJax to get younger RBs.If I don't find a Blount or even a Torain later in the draft to carry me this year, I can get Richardson next year.
I am in year 2 of a full rebuild of a depleted (last place prior yr) ppr team. The tactic I took was to first get young talented wr's, qb, te before focusing too much on rb. Reason: WR, QB, and TE take longer to develop into fantasy contributers than rb (usually). Rb's although faster to contribution, also burn out faster (shorter careers...usually), so my view was why waste a year or two of an rb's valuable career time on a team that doesn't yet have enough at wr, qb, te to win anything important (a championship). Besides that, the games the rb could help me win only work against my following years draft pick value, by potentially making those draft picks worse (highly unlikely the wr, qb, or te would help/hurt like this in yr 1) With that point of view, the goal was to add my rb's in year 2 and maybe three, with a focus on being competitive in yr 2 and competiting for a champoinship in yr 3. Due to this, any player on my roster that I felt would not be a championship type contributer in yr 3 was available for trade with my focus on draft picks or young prospects.I'm sure there are many ways to do this, but I thought you might appreciate this view, based on your wr versus rb question in this years draft.
Agreed! Generally, rookie RBs will post more points early than a rookie WR. If Ingram or Leshoure land in a good spot where they appear to be the "lead dog", they will score more than Green or Jones the first year or two.
My question with all of this would be: 1. How many top notch years can we realistically expect from Ingram/LeShoure?2. How many top notch years can we realistically expect from Green/Julio?Let's assume:1. No major injuries2. RB gets nicked/bruised/misses more games due to the violence of his position, and likely plays 5+ less years.3. Contrary, WR doesn't get hurt as much, less violence, and likely can play 5+ years at arguably a higher level due to less wear and tear.In a Dynasty situation, all things being equal, who outscores who and by what margin in the mid and long term? What is your best guess/projection?Any of you "number crunchers" able to run some numbers on this? What if we pulled Frank Gore's numbers (likened him to Ingram), pulled Eddie George numbers (LeShoure), not sure who to liken AJ Green to, and say we choose Fitz for Julio? I'd be interested to see how that would work out number wise.
I edited the original post to include it. Here they are:RBs drafted in the top 10: 8.24 seasons (22)RBs drafted in the rest of the 1st round: 6.9 seasons (41)RBs drafted in the 2nd round: 6.14 seasons (49)RBs drafted in the 3rd round: 5.16 seasons (50)WRs drafted in the 1st round: 8.60 seasons (54)WRs drafted in the 2nd round: 6.63 seasons (58)QBs drafted in the top 5: 10.53 seasons (15)QBs drafted in the rest of the 1st round: 7.18 seasons (17)
I am not a dynasty guy (I play keepers with limits on how long you can keep a player), but I will tell you that I am always amazed at how far forward people look. Besides the point that your league could disban (which being on these boards, I have seen a good deal of threads where this happens), There are plenty of guys out there who could help you who happen to be older and must be worth more than 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick (where you are basically throwing a hail mary anyways). For example, what would have been the price for Derick Mason three years ago? A third rounder? What are the chances you could have hit the nail on the head and found a rookie, 20 something picks into your draft who would have had a better three year run than him?In my keeper league, we instituted a rule where you can keep a rookie each year, on top of your other three keepers. One person in my league (who BTW won the league the year before the rule was implemented) has taken two top-3 rookies (Donald Brown and Beanie Wells in year one and CJ Spiller and Dez Bryant in year two) two years in a row...this person finished dead last both years. I, on the other hand, punted on taking rookies (I grabbed Mark Sanchez and Tobie Gerhert late in both drafts) and won the league the first year and finished 1st in the regular season the second year. I realize it is different than dynasty, but the obsession of having the "next big thing" seems to rear its head in dynasty a lot at the cost of the owners.
Agreed, Sweet Love. However we are debating a rookie drafting issue (top RB or top WR prospect) here. Not "the next big thing/new shiny toy".
I'm not sure how to answer the questions as posed. I don't have numbers that separate players who suffered major injuries vs. players who did not. I don't really know how to use Frank Gore to project for Mark Ingram (assume identical careers?). Frank Gore has scored 308 career VBD points and has been a top 10 RB 3x. Eddie George scored 551 career VBD points and was a top 10 RB 3x. Larry Fitzgerald has scored 392 career VBD points and has been a top 10 WR 4x. I would say that using productive veterans to predict the value of prospects ignores the 50% likelihood that Ingram, Green, or Jones will never amount to anything in the NFL, so I've not found it to be a very useful tool.I can give some general guidelines:
By 'non top-10 RBs', do you mean excluding top ten RBs (41 total RBs) or all 1st round RBs (63 total RBs)?
That helps, and I have no idea how you could answer my question either.
I liked the point you made about the rb's -vs WR' concentration" of points, that makes a lot of sense. I am rather surprised to see that:
I meant excluding top ten RBs (so all RBs selected between 11th and the end of the 1st round). Top 10 RBs averaged 250 career VBD points. Added up, the average for all 1st round RBs between 1985-2000 is about 175 VBD points.
....Thanks to all who posted in this thread so far,Great read.
Yeah, I got interested in dynasty values at some point after reading Beto's thread from a while back: hereI sat on it for a while but with profootballreference, I had the tool to actually use career VBD numbers in a meaningful way.That helps, and I have no idea how you could answer my question either.
I am rather surprised to see that:
1. WR's don't outscore RB's by as large of a margin as I thought
2. Wr's don't have THAT many more productive years.
So perhaps who you draft SHOULD depend more on:
1. Whether you think a RB would push you over the edge to win NOW (take the RB if talent/situation is equal)?
2. Whether you stand a better chance in 2/3/4 years. (take the WR if talent/situation is equal)?
3. Team need?
I really don't know enough to offer specific player advice. Honestly, the key seems to be to guess right. If you guessed Andre Johnson you won. If you guessed Charles Rogers you lost. I realize that's not very useful but luck is, by far, the biggest factor in drafting a good rookie. It looks to me like 1st round WRs and 1st round RBs outside of the top 10 are pretty close in projected value, so it's actually pretty hard to go wrong. Strategy might be worth 10-15 career VBD points. Guessing right is worth closer to 300.
Great Numbers, I would like to add that a couple of yrs ago a elite rookie RBs can usually be plugged into even a small line up from yr 1 and on and give RB1 #s... Elite Rookie WRs seem to have a waiting period of 1 to 2 yrs before they each their Elite status; the so called WR 3 yr rule.You were able to draft a stud RB at age 22, FF value is usally gone around 30; from 22 to 30 that stud RB gave u 8 yrs of solid production. Now with RBBC's it seems that even stud talent RBs have to wait 2 to 3 yrs before they get a lion's share carries; then around age 28 the team seems to draft a rookie for him to compete with.
Someone around here snickers at all complicated draft theories with the response "Draft good players." I've gone very complex at times and very simple at times, and I can't say there's any difference in my results. I win when I draft good players.That can actually be applied here. Green's the best offensive player in the draft. I'm not so convinced that Jones is above Ingram, but I don't rank Green ahead of Ingram because of their positions - I just think Green's the best player.
I figure that if NFL teams with large, dedicated scouting departments, exclusive player access, and millions of dollars on the line can't do better than 50% on their 1st round picks, the chances that I can watch 2 minute youtube clips and figure out who's going to boom and who's going to bust are pretty small. You really do just have to guess right.'Tick said:
