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Bill Parcells draft show (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Premier
- Start date
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
Parcells? What channel?
Premier
Footballguy
ESPN
RobertBobson
Footballguy
I thought his pat white admissions were surprisingly candid ( the worst second round draft pick since Wannstedt took todd sauerbrun IMO). I am not much of a parcells guy typically, but this was filled with honesty and information. Good stuff
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
I really enjoyed the show.
I thought the prototype lists per position and the letter codes were interesting. I would have loved to have seen an example of how these number grades are derived, but I haven't seen a person, publication, or service break it down yet - although I have only moderately searched for that information.
Combine that missing detail with the fact that there tends to be one scout covering a territory with several schools and only a few days to see what can often can be dozens of players and then move onto the next, I was left with the impression that how they arrive at a number grade isn't as systematic as it sounds. It also explains why some former scouts have mentioned that they have seen their peers paraphrase online and print material to fill out reports.
The lack of a real prototype for an RB was a good confirmation of what we've seen in the NFL for some time now.
However as much "detail" as Parcells went over, it was still very general information that for the most part was common sense type of detail after it was shared.
-Origins of scouting services and combine
-How many territories and schools per region for a scout
-When the scout begins and a very general description of his work
-A very general description of the number system, but not how it's applied
-A very general description of the letter system
-General rules of thumb for some positions (QB, RB, CB, and DE)
-The atmosphere of some draft rooms
-What a draft card looks like and how it's used.
I agree that the Pat White explanation was candid and provided some insight to Miami's mentality that they thought enough of the Wildcat offense to make a player a second-round pick that they normally wouldn't have taken there. In hindsight, maybe the scouts who covered the NFL teams for the Dolphins should have done a better job telling the Miami staff that the Wildcat was not going to be the rage. Then again, maybe they did and the team didn't agree or the fact that virtually every team in the league tried it the following year really made it difficult for the Dolphins to see it was a short-term fad.
I still found it baffling that after Parcells went into a fair amount of detail about the historical plight of first round quarterbacks and the financial woes that teams experience when they miss on a high first round pick that he would still recommend picking a quarterback that high. I do understand that trading out of those spots are harder now and I'm sure that has to do with the revelation in recent years of what the Pats, Eagles, and a few others have done to counter the flawed value chart originally created by former Cowboys minority owner Mike McCoy that propelled the Cowboys to '90s greatness because no one else in the league had one.
However, I didn't think he made a good argument for picking a quarterback anyway. He sounded as helpless and in the dark as any NFL team. They are all in the dark about quarterbacks and I can understand a lot of that. His general explanation of the "unknown" factors that will propel a player forward when he encounters adversity, especially quarterbacks, reveals it.
I really found that point interesting because it fuels the average fan, draft evaluators, and media to become armchair evaluators of personality types to project this stuff. Cam Newton may come off as an arrogant and slick athlete who has an inflated sense of self-entitlement and an overbearing father trying to be in control. However, he might show a toughness and work ethic that nobody on the outside - and many on the inside - would have never thought. On the other hand, Jake Locker might take one too many hits and after being tough his entire college career he might fold.
One of the quarterbacks I really missed on (at least thus far) was Trent Edwards. He was a tough kid at Stanford and he would challenge a defense. When I saw him get hammered by USC and all those defensive players who are now in the NFL, and maintain his poise, accuracy, and aggressiveness I thought he was going to become a fine player. And he actually showed that promise very early in his career with the Bills. But once he took punishment that knocked him out of games he became a different player and never turned it around there. I think he's a good example of what Parcells was talking about.
One major thing he said that I thought revealed a flaw in his and the NFL GMs thought process was the point of "you have to go where they make them." Not that they shouldn't go to major college schools, but his supporting argument was revealing a figure that represented the percentage of drafted players that came from those schools. However, he didn't reveal the percentage of drafted players from those schools that actually were useful. All the teams are basically doing the same thing, so in this respect they are just like fantasy owners in a league drafting two RBs in the first two rounds. If a few teams figure out how to deviate from the norm with good supporting information, they can have an edge.
What this confirmed more than ever is that the NFL is a herd of elephants with the draft process.
I thought the prototype lists per position and the letter codes were interesting. I would have loved to have seen an example of how these number grades are derived, but I haven't seen a person, publication, or service break it down yet - although I have only moderately searched for that information.
Combine that missing detail with the fact that there tends to be one scout covering a territory with several schools and only a few days to see what can often can be dozens of players and then move onto the next, I was left with the impression that how they arrive at a number grade isn't as systematic as it sounds. It also explains why some former scouts have mentioned that they have seen their peers paraphrase online and print material to fill out reports.
The lack of a real prototype for an RB was a good confirmation of what we've seen in the NFL for some time now.
However as much "detail" as Parcells went over, it was still very general information that for the most part was common sense type of detail after it was shared.
-Origins of scouting services and combine
-How many territories and schools per region for a scout
-When the scout begins and a very general description of his work
-A very general description of the number system, but not how it's applied
-A very general description of the letter system
-General rules of thumb for some positions (QB, RB, CB, and DE)
-The atmosphere of some draft rooms
-What a draft card looks like and how it's used.
I agree that the Pat White explanation was candid and provided some insight to Miami's mentality that they thought enough of the Wildcat offense to make a player a second-round pick that they normally wouldn't have taken there. In hindsight, maybe the scouts who covered the NFL teams for the Dolphins should have done a better job telling the Miami staff that the Wildcat was not going to be the rage. Then again, maybe they did and the team didn't agree or the fact that virtually every team in the league tried it the following year really made it difficult for the Dolphins to see it was a short-term fad.
I still found it baffling that after Parcells went into a fair amount of detail about the historical plight of first round quarterbacks and the financial woes that teams experience when they miss on a high first round pick that he would still recommend picking a quarterback that high. I do understand that trading out of those spots are harder now and I'm sure that has to do with the revelation in recent years of what the Pats, Eagles, and a few others have done to counter the flawed value chart originally created by former Cowboys minority owner Mike McCoy that propelled the Cowboys to '90s greatness because no one else in the league had one.
However, I didn't think he made a good argument for picking a quarterback anyway. He sounded as helpless and in the dark as any NFL team. They are all in the dark about quarterbacks and I can understand a lot of that. His general explanation of the "unknown" factors that will propel a player forward when he encounters adversity, especially quarterbacks, reveals it.
I really found that point interesting because it fuels the average fan, draft evaluators, and media to become armchair evaluators of personality types to project this stuff. Cam Newton may come off as an arrogant and slick athlete who has an inflated sense of self-entitlement and an overbearing father trying to be in control. However, he might show a toughness and work ethic that nobody on the outside - and many on the inside - would have never thought. On the other hand, Jake Locker might take one too many hits and after being tough his entire college career he might fold.
One of the quarterbacks I really missed on (at least thus far) was Trent Edwards. He was a tough kid at Stanford and he would challenge a defense. When I saw him get hammered by USC and all those defensive players who are now in the NFL, and maintain his poise, accuracy, and aggressiveness I thought he was going to become a fine player. And he actually showed that promise very early in his career with the Bills. But once he took punishment that knocked him out of games he became a different player and never turned it around there. I think he's a good example of what Parcells was talking about.
One major thing he said that I thought revealed a flaw in his and the NFL GMs thought process was the point of "you have to go where they make them." Not that they shouldn't go to major college schools, but his supporting argument was revealing a figure that represented the percentage of drafted players that came from those schools. However, he didn't reveal the percentage of drafted players from those schools that actually were useful. All the teams are basically doing the same thing, so in this respect they are just like fantasy owners in a league drafting two RBs in the first two rounds. If a few teams figure out how to deviate from the norm with good supporting information, they can have an edge.
What this confirmed more than ever is that the NFL is a herd of elephants with the draft process.
JAA
Footballguy
Todd Sauerbrun and Pat White both went to WVU ...
Yenrub
Footballguy
Like I said earlier I wanted a closer look at his board
I noticed that both Newton & Gabbert had 1st round grades
But the thing that really caught my eye …and they didn’t talk about this…was it looked like he had my man Nate Irvin from NC State as the highest rated Inside Linebacker with a 1st round grade
I noticed that both Newton & Gabbert had 1st round grades
But the thing that really caught my eye …and they didn’t talk about this…was it looked like he had my man Nate Irvin from NC State as the highest rated Inside Linebacker with a 1st round grade
blend
Footballguy
getting a closer look at the board would have been cool...Like yenrub, I saw that Irvin had a 1st round grade and if I saw it correctly, I think I saw Prince ahead of Peterson at CB. I didn't notice if everyone was alphabetical or something within a round, but I bet they could have had a show with just him talking about his board.
eta: just looked at the recording again, the players are definitely not in alphabetical order. Still can't believe Prince is above Peterson.
The show was great.
eta: just looked at the recording again, the players are definitely not in alphabetical order. Still can't believe Prince is above Peterson.
The show was great.
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JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Deleted.
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Johnny Rock
Footballguy
Wish I could've seen the show.
Can anyone who saw it expound on what he said about QB's in this draft?
Can anyone who saw it expound on what he said about QB's in this draft?
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
-Parcells like Newton because of impressive comeback over Alabama
-Had Gabbert ranked No.2 behind Newton on his board.
-Thought Dalton was too small for his liking as a fast-riser.
-Had Gabbert ranked No.2 behind Newton on his board.
-Thought Dalton was too small for his liking as a fast-riser.
RobertBobson
Footballguy
I know that the national football post uses a similar system ( perhaps the same system) when evaluating players. Perhaps this is a typical NFL team convention?Also, I doubt looking at Parcells big board is particularly useful. I doubt he put in 1/100th the attention to prospects this season as he did when he was working for a franchise.
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Johnny Rock
Footballguy
Thanks
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Sure. His overall theme on QBs is that you'll never really know what you're going to get until the guy gets his butt kicked in front of 80K fans, loses a game because of his decisions, draws the ire from the media, fans, and teammates and then has to bounce back. He also mentioned that of the 60-something QBs drafted in the first round in many years that over half of them have failed to even have good careers and that only a small percentage were even reasonable starters along the lines of Philip Rivers (his example). Then an even smaller percentage were the Marino/Elway category. Yet, he still believed you had to take a QB early or you'll miss out.
ditka85
Footballguy
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
They do. So does PFW. So does Sporting News. But none ever show specifically how they derive a 5.4 from an 8.6. I want to see how they come to those numbers and not what the number means.
RobertBobson
Footballguy
I think you're right about them being not as systematic as they seem. I think it would be akin to asking Rodger ebert to tell us what is his system for determining if a movie is 5 stars verses 4 1/2. IE there would be a lot of rhetoric, but not much of a quantifiable system.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
I thought that was interesting as well. He was a great player before he got hurt in the NFL.
81-yard run
At OU
81-yard run
At OU
JFurby
Footballguy
This blog actually went through and put together the position rankings shown in the background during the special. I'll only post a few of the positions since the guy who did the work should earn some site visits if you're interested in the rest.
Each position is sorted by ranking within each round:
Quarterback:
1. Newton, Gabbert
2. Mallett, Ponder, Locker
3. Dalton, Kaepernick
4. Stanzi
Running Back:
1. Ingram
2. Williams, Thomas, Leshoure
3. Murray, Hunter
4. Helu, Jones Todman
Defensive End:
1. Watt, Bowers, Heyward, Jordan, Quinn, Clayborn
2. Bailey, Acho
3. Ballard, Sheard, McPhee
4. Romeus, Reed
OLB:
1. Miller, Smith, Kerrigan
2. Ayers, Moch, Houston
3. ...
4. ...
Cornerback:
1. Amukamara, Peterson
2. Smith, Williams, Dowling, Harris
3. Brown, Wright, Culliver
4. Burton, Patrick, Brown, Gilchrist
Guard:
1. ...
2. Watkins, Wisniewksi
3. Carpenter, Rackley
4. Boling, Moffitt
All positions
Each position is sorted by ranking within each round:
Quarterback:
1. Newton, Gabbert
2. Mallett, Ponder, Locker
3. Dalton, Kaepernick
4. Stanzi
Running Back:
1. Ingram
2. Williams, Thomas, Leshoure
3. Murray, Hunter
4. Helu, Jones Todman
Defensive End:
1. Watt, Bowers, Heyward, Jordan, Quinn, Clayborn
2. Bailey, Acho
3. Ballard, Sheard, McPhee
4. Romeus, Reed
OLB:
1. Miller, Smith, Kerrigan
2. Ayers, Moch, Houston
3. ...
4. ...
Cornerback:
1. Amukamara, Peterson
2. Smith, Williams, Dowling, Harris
3. Brown, Wright, Culliver
4. Burton, Patrick, Brown, Gilchrist
Guard:
1. ...
2. Watkins, Wisniewksi
3. Carpenter, Rackley
4. Boling, Moffitt
All positions
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
'Premier said:
Just watched it on DVR and it was a great breakdown. The grading system, the lettering of types of players, the scouting, the checklist for QBs.... great stuff. Tirico did a nice job as well.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Great breakdown Matt.As for the "go where they make them" comment, I agree that this is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you always go to Iowa, Va Tech and Ohio State then you're going to be drafting from those schools. Finding a Garcon is very difficult but you would have to believe that it is worth the effort to find those needles in haystacks. Considering how valuable getting a relative nobody would be for a Day 3 pick, I would have to wonder whether adding 10 or so scouts for "lesser program evaluation" is worth it. (BTW the # was 52% from 27 schools, I didn't catch over what time period)
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Extrapolating here, but I would have to guess that he wouldn't draft Newton for the 1-year wonder reason.IIRC he had Ponder about on the same level as Dalton.'Matt Waldman said:
eakfootball
Footballguy
have it on DVR. Going to watch it in an hour, can't wait.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I'll also note for the readers here the 5 guys he liked for this year's draft:
Ryan Williams, RB, VT
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Casey Matthews, OLB, Oregon
and two small school guys:
Ricardo Locket, WR, Ft. Valley State
Cedrick Thornton, DE/DT, S. Arkansas
Ryan Williams, RB, VT
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Casey Matthews, OLB, Oregon
and two small school guys:
Ricardo Locket, WR, Ft. Valley State
Cedrick Thornton, DE/DT, S. Arkansas
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Thanks and thanks for providing the stat. I think finding an edge is well worth it, because I think it's not just about knowing who to take, but also knowing who to avoid. If you have more players available to consider taking, it gives you more freedom to avoid taking chances on players you're not completely sold on. Plus, the more I try to delve into the scoring of scouting the more I discover that there is opportunity for this system to get better. I was surprised that Parcells said that evaluating RBs is less systematic process (he didn't say it that way, but I took it that way) than one would think. And if Parcells is on ESPN as one of the best that ever did this thing called the draft, it tells me there is room for improvement. A guy this experienced and knowledgeable about the game seemed constrained by the processes or lack thereof. Very very fascinating stuff.
eakfootball
Footballguy
Great show. The typos on the board were pretty funny too. Paul Niles lol, there were 2 or 3 more.
