Huh? This thread is over 8 years old, so obviously there is going to be conversations about both dynasty and redraft. I was just pointing out that not everything has to do with ADP.
For redraft, ADP has everything to do it. And yes, he is outperforming his ADP, by a good amount.
No, that actually does not look better for Ingram. TDs are the most variable component, and since he's already at 100% of the team rushing TDs he obviously can't go anywhere but down. I don't put any weight on touch percentage, in fact I consider it a slight negative as it telegraphs things to the defense, but several other RBs are averaging more carries per game- Michel, Mack, Hyde, Jacobs, Jones, and Bell. Several others are in the same ballpark- Lindsay, Mixon, Montgomery, AP, Conner, Gore, Gurley, KJ, etc.
So let me get this straight - having 100% of his team's RB TD's is a negative? He is their unquestioned GL RB, and trails only Cook, Jones, and CMC in rushing TD's. As far as being a slight negative, it hasn't hindered Ingram thus far - he is averaging 4.7 YPC, even with his bulk of GL work. As for your first list of other RB's, which ones had a lower ADP? Hyde stands out, but the rest were all similar or much higher. And how is Hyde doing? 13 spots below him in non-PPR, and 17 spots in PPR. Would you rather have Hyde? Of your second list of RB's, which ones had a lower ADP? Gore and Peterson stick out, but the rest were similar or much higher. In PPR, Gore and AP are currently RB's 37 & 42. Would you rather have either of them? BTW, of the RB's you listed, you do realize 4 of them were late 1st or 2nd round picks (Bell, Conner, Mixon, Gurley), yet he is ahead of all of them in non-PPR, and trails only Conner in PPR?
Yes, I expected Lamar to steal carries. What I did not expect is for Edwards to steal as many, and I certainly didn't expect for the Ravens to 1) throw this much as a team, and 2) not throw hardly at all to Ingram (and the RBs in general). Lamar averaged ~22.5 passing attempts per game as a starter last year, this year he's at almost 31. All despite playing a schedule which has been incredibly conducive to running the ball.
BAL is a running team, averaging 37 carries a game. MIN is also a running team, averaging 33 carries a game. Mattison has 16 more carries than Edwards, so is he "stealing" from Cook? I know I am going way back, but did Roland Harper "steal" 240 carries from Walter Payton in 1978 when Walter had 333? Let me just ask, how many carries did you expect Ingram to get this year? As for the RB receptions, I will certainly concede - Lamar has only thrown 16 times to Ingram and Edwards combined - and they have caught all 16. Let's see some more dump offs, Lamar!
I think we have different definitions of "fallacy"- it's a simple fact that he is losing touches to Edwards and Hill, you gave the numbers yourself. Do you think having 59% of RB carries is a huge amount?
Never expected a huge percentage, nor should anyone else have. As much as BAL runs, any RB would surely fold with a huge cut of the BAL rushing attack. And to say it's a simple fact he is losing touches is funny. Wouldn't he be losing touches to Edwards and Hill if they each only had 1 carry? I don't think Ingram is losing touches - besides a few more catches, he is doing just fine.
Again, no one is complaining about his overall scoring in fantasy, but the fact remains that it's been highly variable and inflated because of several short TD runs, which are unreliable. Generally speaking you want more touches, especially receptions, in order to have both a higher floor and ceiling.
It kinda goes without saying that more touches equates to higher floor and ceiling, but the fact is he hasn't finished lower than RB33 (RB3) in any given week. At worst he has been a flex, and at best he has finished as THE RB1. Ingram's bread and butter for his entire career has been his TD's. He maxed out at 230 carries in 2017, and he maxed out at 12 TD's the same year. This year, he is on pace for 226 carries and 16 TD's. Just enjoy the ride, and hope for some more catches.
