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47 minutes ago, davearm said:

Not sure why Baltimore is a bad landing spot.  They run the snot out of the ball.  Ingram's 8 rushes from inside the 5 ranks 6th best in the NFL (Cook 12, Michel 11, Elliot McCaffrey Jones 9 each, Ingram K Johnson 8 each).

Because they have to be inside the 5 for him to score. Only one TD is outside 4 yards. Seen this scenario before with other guys who are TD dependent which he is and it's not one you want to rely on. The rest of the guys are in there all game long with a couple of breathers. Ingram is in 60% at best. Sometimes under 40%.
He gets a carry and is immediately taken out of the game for an inferior player because Harbug thinks he's fooling the other teams and he won't be back until the next 1st down.  Elliott and McCaffrey are all consistency taking 90% of the O snaps. Cook is 60% minimum.

 

19 minutes ago, The_Man said:

As a Ravens fan, I've been very perplexed by how few passes they have been throwing to RBs this season.

 

You gotta have a QB that is capable of doing that. Jackson is not that guy. 1. You have to be aware of the RB and know when to get it to him...Jackson instead, takes off running. Passes that should go to the RB are Jackson runs. 2. You have to have that skill, which he does not possess.

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It think a lot of what has transpired with Ingram this year was exactly what I expected when I drafted him.

  • He's only option 1B in the rushing attack
  • He will be the goalline back (on pace for 16 TDs)
  • Gamescript matters
  • He won't see a lot of receptions because Lamar wants to run when things break down and isn't a great touch thrower anyways
  • He's a 9 year RB with over 1600 NFL touches and is about to turn 30 this December. While he was showing great burst early on, I'm not seeing it as much now. Perhaps the coaches are dialing him back for a reason, the long haul of the season

Perhaps some people thought he was going to be a set it and forget it guy in your starting lineup. I would argue all of the above was pretty predictable and while I've been starting him unconditionally and pretty happy with the results from my 4th rounder, I'm starting to consider him as more of a flex/matchup dependent starter.

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18 minutes ago, Futz said:

It think a lot of what has transpired with Ingram this year was exactly what I expected when I drafted him.

  • He's only option 1B in the rushing attack
  • He will be the goalline back (on pace for 16 TDs)
  • Gamescript matters
  • He won't see a lot of receptions because Lamar wants to run when things break down and isn't a great touch thrower anyways
  • He's a 9 year RB with over 1600 NFL touches and is about to turn 30 this December. While he was showing great burst early on, I'm not seeing it as much now. Perhaps the coaches are dialing him back for a reason, the long haul of the season

Perhaps some people thought he was going to be a set it and forget it guy in your starting lineup. I would argue all of the above was pretty predictable and while I've been starting him unconditionally and pretty happy with the results from my 4th rounder, I'm starting to consider him as more of a flex/matchup dependent starter.

The reality is that the biggest bullet point working against him, which doesn't show up there, is that Gus Edwards is getting a lot more work than we probably expected.

Ingram is RB14 right now in ppg (still pretty good value relative to where he was drafted).  If Ingram had even half of Edwards' touches (which would leave him with just over 70% of the RB touches, which I think is a reasonable amount based on expectations) he would be RB7 right now half a point per game behind Kamara.

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52 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Because they have to be inside the 5 for him to score. Only one TD is outside 4 yards. Seen this scenario before with other guys who are TD dependent which he is and it's not one you want to rely on. The rest of the guys are in there all game long with a couple of breathers. Ingram is in 60% at best. Sometimes under 40%.
He gets a carry and is immediately taken out of the game for an inferior player because Harbug thinks he's fooling the other teams and he won't be back until the next 1st down.  Elliott and McCaffrey are all consistency taking 90% of the O snaps. Cook is 60% minimum.

 

Who are these "rest of the guys"?  In my league he was +/- 10 picks of: K Johnson, Carson, Damien Williams, Gordon, Michel, Montgomery, Duke, Mack.  Lots of landmines in there, and none of them have a higher ppg so far (standard scoring).  If there are one or two of those you'd prefer going forward I won't argue it, but Ingram has been more than OK for where you drafted him.

The guy obviously isn't Elliott or McCaffrey.  Is that what you went in expecting?

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7 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

The reality is that the biggest bullet point working against him, which doesn't show up there, is that Gus Edwards is getting a lot more work than we probably expected.

Ingram is RB14 right now in ppg (still pretty good value relative to where he was drafted).  If Ingram had even half of Edwards' touches (which would leave him with just over 70% of the RB touches, which I think is a reasonable amount based on expectations) he would be RB7 right now half a point per game behind Kamara.

Actually I think it's the 5th bullet point in a nutshell. If anyone thought he was going to get 250-300 carries at this stage of his career when he's never gone over 230 in a season was just fooling themselves. He's averaging 14 carries a game right now which is right on pace for just under 230 carries. I'm not shocked at that at all. I am a little shocked as to how many carries/hits they are apparently going to allow their QB to absorb though. That's the person to blame if you feel it's appropriate.

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8 minutes ago, Futz said:

Actually I think it's the 5th bullet point in a nutshell. If anyone thought he was going to get 250-300 carries at this stage of his career when he's never gone over 230 in a season was just fooling themselves. He's averaging 14 carries a game right now which is right on pace for just under 230 carries. I'm not shocked at that at all. I am a little shocked as to how many carries/hits they are apparently going to allow their QB to absorb though. That's the person to blame if you feel it's appropriate.

Meh, his career carry totals seem less applicable here given he was playing New Orleans the whole time which would still be a RBBC if their two options were Walter Payton and Tatum Bell.

Ingram has a prototype build, had a workhorse year in college, and has had a pretty clean bill of health the last few years.

"Approaching 30" is just verbage.  A guy usually is either dead and done or he's not.  There are about a zillion guys that got a lot of touches as they were "approaching 30".  Ingram hasn't really shown any signs of slowing down yet to me, and there usually aren't any.  Like I mentioned, typically a guy is either 100% of he was at 25 or 10% of he was at 25, and the change usually happens suddenly.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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6 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Meh, his career carry totals seem less applicable here given he was playing New Orleans the whole time which would still be a RBBC if their two options were Walter Payton and Tatum Bell.

Ingram has a prototype build, had a workhorse year in college, and has had a pretty clean bill of health the last few years.

"Approaching 30" is just empty verbage.  A guy is either dead and done or he's not.  There are about a zillion guys that got a lot of touches as they were "approaching 30".  Ingram hasn't really shown any signs of slowing down yet to me, and there usually aren't any.  Like I mentioned, typically a guy is either 100% of he was at 25 or 10% of he was at 25, and the change usually happens suddenly.

I think you might fall into the category of "hoped for better" but I just didn't see it with this situation at all. Let's not forget that Gus Edwards proved to be quite capable last year and that wasn't lost in my expectations either.

He's on pace for 1100-230-16 TDs. Those TDs may not be sustainable but even if he does 10-12 total I would call that a success.

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1 hour ago, Futz said:

It think a lot of what has transpired with Ingram this year was exactly what I expected when I drafted him.

  • He's only option 1B in the rushing attack
  • He will be the goalline back (on pace for 16 TDs)
  • Gamescript matters
  • He won't see a lot of receptions because Lamar wants to run when things break down and isn't a great touch thrower anyways
  • He's a 9 year RB with over 1600 NFL touches and is about to turn 30 this December. While he was showing great burst early on, I'm not seeing it as much now. Perhaps the coaches are dialing him back for a reason, the long haul of the season

Perhaps some people thought he was going to be a set it and forget it guy in your starting lineup. I would argue all of the above was pretty predictable and while I've been starting him unconditionally and pretty happy with the results from my 4th rounder, I'm starting to consider him as more of a flex/matchup dependent starter.

 

5 minutes ago, Futz said:

I think you might fall into the category of "hoped for better" but I just didn't see it with this situation at all. Let's not forget that Gus Edwards proved to be quite capable last year and that wasn't lost in my expectations either.

He's on pace for 1100-230-16 TDs. Those TDs may not be sustainable but even if he does 10-12 total I would call that a success.

So you saw all of this coming, yet you still spent your 4th round pick on him?

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46 minutes ago, humpback said:

 

So you saw all of this coming, yet you still spent your 4th round pick on him?

Just for clarity sake, are you saying he's underperforming, overperforming or performing at his ADP?

Because I'd say he's overperforming for a 4th round pick. They all have an element of risk in those rounds but I felt he was one of the safest picks on the board and I was thrilled to get him there.

12th pick .05 PPR

Julio, M. Thomas, Carson, Ingram so yes absolutely

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3 hours ago, davearm said:

Who are these "rest of the guys"?  In my league he was +/- 10 picks of: K Johnson, Carson, Damien Williams, Gordon, Michel, Montgomery, Duke, Mack.  Lots of landmines in there, and none of them have a higher ppg so far (standard scoring).  If there are one or two of those you'd prefer going forward I won't argue it, but Ingram has been more than OK for where you drafted him.

The guy obviously isn't Elliott or McCaffrey.  Is that what you went in expecting?

The guys you listed outside Michel. All play a ton more than Ingram.  As a matter of fact, he was 39th in week 6 on snap counts. Just letting you in on some info...there are 32 teams in the NFL. Also 39th in week 4. Week 1 there were 50 RBs on the field more than him. His 2 -1 yarders masked the horrible usage of him. Week 2, 3 & 5 is more what I expected - top 10 in snap count. Week 7 I believe will be a pathetic number as well as I watched him run again on 1st down and then get taken out all game long.

Dynasty. I expected them to use him heavily but they have decided to just run Jackson at every opportunity.

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2 hours ago, Futz said:

Just for clarity sake, are you saying he's underperforming, overperforming or performing at his ADP?

Because I'd say he's overperforming for a 4th round pick. They all have an element of risk in those rounds but I felt he was one of the safest picks on the board and I was thrilled to get him there.

12th pick .05 PPR

Julio, M. Thomas, Carson, Ingram so yes absolutely

I know I wouldn't spend my 4th round pick on a "flex/matchup dependent starter", nor would I consider someone like that "one of the safest picks on the board".

So far, he's roughly met my expectations, but that's because of the two games where he scored 5 TDs. He's also had nearly perfect circumstances in terms of dream match-ups and positive game flow, and that's very likely to get much, much less ideal. If his "workload" remains the same going forward, I expect the rest of the season to be pretty disappointing.

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I am dropping Ingram this week for someone on the waiver wire.  In a 10-team league which uses 5 flex positions instead of any rb or wr or te, I was happy to have him as my #3 or #4 flex.  Sadly, this league gives zero points for rushing until the player reaches 65 yards.  While it is PPR, it has the same 65 yard requirement for points for receiving yardage.  Ingram just aint getting it done in that scenario.  Without a TD he is coming close to laying eggs most weeks so far.  So teary-eyed and with early season optimism shattered, off he goes.  He can blow up for someone else now and then.

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17 minutes ago, Phantom Knight said:

I am dropping Ingram this week for someone on the waiver wire. 

Who are you dropping him for?

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10 hours ago, Phantom Knight said:

I am dropping Ingram this week for someone on the waiver wire. 

 

10 hours ago, wormburner said:

Who are you dropping him for?

I don't want to mention names just in case other league members are here, but it will for players with a similar low floors but who I see signs that the floor will be rising slightly and who I also see a glimmer of hope to have their ceiling rise to flex3 with occasional sorties into flex2 territory (out of the 5 flex positions).  Names you have know, but names that you'd be jumping up and down to have on your roster. After waivers run tonight, I'll be happy to post if you like. 

Edit to add: I put in waiver request in this order. Edmonds (whom I had not chance at due to waiver priority), AJ Brown, Devante Parker, Corey Davis.  Devante Parker is whom I received. He will probably be on the bench this week where Ingram was (bye or no bye week).

Edited by Phantom Knight

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People are dropping the rb8 in nonppr? What is happening in this thread.

4 hours ago, lod001 said:

The guys you listed outside Michel. All play a ton more than Ingram.  As a matter of fact, he was 39th in week 6 on snap counts. Just letting you in on some info...there are 32 teams in the NFL. Also 39th in week 4. Week 1 there were 50 RBs on the field more than him. His 2 -1 yarders masked the horrible usage of him. Week 2, 3 & 5 is more what I expected - top 10 in snap count. Week 7 I believe will be a pathetic number as well as I watched him run again on 1st down and then get taken out all game long.

Dynasty. I expected them to use him heavily but they have decided to just run Jackson at every opportunity.

There's no way you would rather have Duke, Montgomery or Damien Williams over Ingram

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4 hours ago, humpback said:

I know I wouldn't spend my 4th round pick on a "flex/matchup dependent starter", nor would I consider someone like that "one of the safest picks on the board".

So far, he's roughly met my expectations, but that's because of the two games where he scored 5 TDs. He's also had nearly perfect circumstances in terms of dream match-ups and positive game flow, and that's very likely to get much, much less ideal. If his "workload" remains the same going forward, I expect the rest of the season to be pretty disappointing.

My advice to you would be not to take a RB in the 4th round.

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Ingram is undervalued at the moment.  Unless your scoring is strange, he is likely top 10 (RB9 in my .5PPR league).  Only Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones have more rushing TD's.  He has at least 12 carries every game (only 8 other RB's can say the same).  He has a healthy 4.7 YPC, and is 10th in rushing yards.  He has remained healthy, and is the only Raven besides Lamar with a rushing TD.  Ingram has 30 more carries than Edwards & Hill combined at this point, and has a better YPC than both of them.  He has more targets and catches than Edwards & Hill combined, and a higher YPR than both.

Anyone who drafted Ingram did so knowing full well Lamar would take alot of carries.  What more is anyone expecting from Ingram?  I am very happy to have him as my RB3.

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4 hours ago, Wise Old Owl said:

People are dropping the rb8 in nonppr? What is happening in this thread.

There's no way you would rather have Duke, Montgomery or Damien Williams over Ingram

it must be a league where he drafted Zeke, Barkley, and CMC and there's no bench spots.

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8 hours ago, humpback said:

I know I wouldn't spend my 4th round pick on a "flex/matchup dependent starter", nor would I consider someone like that "one of the safest picks on the board".

So far, he's roughly met my expectations, but that's because of the two games where he scored 5 TDs. He's also had nearly perfect circumstances in terms of dream match-ups and positive game flow, and that's very likely to get much, much less ideal. If his "workload" remains the same going forward, I expect the rest of the season to be pretty disappointing.

Nobody is hoping for a flex play in the 4th. I felt he had the best floor and most upside of RBs available at that point. I feel I've gotten exactly that thus far.

Every season there are ebb and flows that you have to ride with most players. You can't blindly start them regardless of matchups. Ingram even with his really nice start is no different. He may drop to a flex or even the bench for a week or two.

Similiar RBs drafted about that time are all in the same boat. Aaron Jones was looking like a no brainer start until he wasn't. Sony Michel, Derrick Henry etc...

I really don't understand why people are irked by a top 12 RB who was pegged as the 21st RB off the board?

He may not keep up the pace but he's not going away either so he'll finish better than expected barring injury.

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2 hours ago, Futz said:

Nobody is hoping for a flex play in the 4th. I felt he had the best floor and most upside of RBs available at that point. I feel I've gotten exactly that thus far.

Every season there are ebb and flows that you have to ride with most players. You can't blindly start them regardless of matchups. Ingram even with his really nice start is no different. He may drop to a flex or even the bench for a week or two.

Similiar RBs drafted about that time are all in the same boat. Aaron Jones was looking like a no brainer start until he wasn't. Sony Michel, Derrick Henry etc...

I really don't understand why people are irked by a top 12 RB who was pegged as the 21st RB off the board?

He may not keep up the pace but he's not going away either so he'll finish better than expected barring injury.

I agree, which is why I'm having trouble reconciling your take that you expected his low-ish workload, you view him as a flex/matchup dependent RB going forward, yet you are very happy with that. Also, ADP isn't really relevant for people who owned him in dynasty/keeper leagues (like myself) or those who acquired him via trade.

I don't think anyone is unhappy with his total fantasy production- there's no denying that he's scored more total points than reasonably expected to this point. However, he's been very boom or bust- he's had 2 phenomenal fantasy games, 2 decent games, and 3 stinkers. The disappointing part is his touches- so far he's only received ~38% of the teams carries, and he has 12 targets in 7 games. All under almost ideal conditions for a RB to thrive. If that usage rate continues, his fantasy production is going to plummet. What's the over/under in his next game vs. NE, something like 10 carries for 35 yards, 1 reception for 6?

So while his current overall fantasy production isn't disappointing, his number of touches has been, especially when factoring in the nearly ideal circumstances they've faced so far. He's been saved by the TDs, which we all know is highly variable. Generally speaking, more touches is going to lead to more fantasy production (especially receptions). That's what gives someone a high floor, not relying on short TD runs.

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On the surface, this looks like a pretty dicey play vs NE. However, Baltimore is at home and NE is somewhat vulnerable to the run (Chubb 131, Gore 109, Bell 70).

Game script scares the $#&! out of me here though. If Baltimore gets off to a good start we should be good here but if they. fall behind early.... :shock:

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I’ve currently got him sat on my bench without any particularly good fill ins - DJ Moore, Diontae Johnson, Christian Kirk all with relatively hard games and/or inconsistent thus far. 
 

Good point above, but Ingram hasn’t been getting large numbers of carries each week and has been TD dependant of which NE have given up almost no rushing TDs

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41 minutes ago, Futz said:

On the surface, this looks like a pretty dicey play vs NE. However, Baltimore is at home and NE is somewhat vulnerable to the run (Chubb 131, Gore 109, Bell 70).

Game script scares the $#&! out of me here though. If Baltimore gets off to a good start we should be good here but if they. fall behind early.... :shock:

Unfortunately with Ingram you're not really realistically hoping for a big yardage total.  You're hoping for a GL carry or two that he can punch in, to go along with his customary 13 carries and 50 yards.

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Yeah, this has dud written all over it. The only hope is that they made some changes over the bye week and come out committed to getting Ingram more heavily involved, but that doesn't seem likely.

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Feels like this could be the week they get Ingram more involved in the passing game with screens. NE figures to take away the TE's in the middle of the field. And Balt had the bye week to devise a creative gameplan. Expecting 100 total yards and a touchdown from him. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but he should also have fresh legs as they haven't been giving him a ton of touches.

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2 hours ago, TartanLion said:

I’ve currently got him sat on my bench without any particularly good fill ins - DJ Moore, Diontae Johnson, Christian Kirk all with relatively hard games and/or inconsistent thus far. 
 

Good point above, but Ingram hasn’t been getting large numbers of carries each week and has been TD dependant of which NE have given up almost no rushing TDs

Yeah I wouldn't go with those options. I have Hyde vs Jax and while I'm not expecting big #s here either, I don't see him him getting game scripted out and should have about a 50/50 shot at a TD at least.

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1 hour ago, Dawg Pound 69 said:

Feels like this could be the week they get Ingram more involved in the passing game with screens. NE figures to take away the TE's in the middle of the field. And Balt had the bye week to devise a creative gameplan. Expecting 100 total yards and a touchdown from him. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but he should also have fresh legs as they haven't been giving him a ton of touches.

Plausible but I could also see Belicheck stacking the line and trusting his stud secondary in man to man coverage daring them to beat them with LJ's arm. Yikes. I think I just benched Ingram

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On 10/23/2019 at 10:22 AM, humpback said:

I agree, which is why I'm having trouble reconciling your take that you expected his low-ish workload, you view him as a flex/matchup dependent RB going forward, yet you are very happy with that. Also, ADP isn't really relevant for people who owned him in dynasty/keeper leagues (like myself) or those who acquired him via trade.

I don't think anyone is unhappy with his total fantasy production- there's no denying that he's scored more total points than reasonably expected to this point. However, he's been very boom or bust- he's had 2 phenomenal fantasy games, 2 decent games, and 3 stinkers. The disappointing part is his touches- so far he's only received ~38% of the teams carries, and he has 12 targets in 7 games. All under almost ideal conditions for a RB to thrive. If that usage rate continues, his fantasy production is going to plummet. What's the over/under in his next game vs. NE, something like 10 carries for 35 yards, 1 reception for 6?

So while his current overall fantasy production isn't disappointing, his number of touches has been, especially when factoring in the nearly ideal circumstances they've faced so far. He's been saved by the TDs, which we all know is highly variable. Generally speaking, more touches is going to lead to more fantasy production (especially receptions). That's what gives someone a high floor, not relying on short TD runs.

Let's not blur the situation by differentiating between redraft and dynasty.  He is nearing 30, so let's talk about what he has done in 2019.  He is a low-end RB1 in non-PPR leagues, and a top-end RB2 in PPR leagues, unless your scoring is whacky.  You say he has 38% of the team's carries, but I will say it a few other ways - he has 59% of the RB carries, while Gus has 31%, and Justice has 10%.  Mark has 63% of the RB receptions, while Gus has 21%, and Justice has 16%.  Mark has 100% of the RB TD's.  Now that looks alot better for Ingram, huh?

The touches are not lacking - he is on pace to equal his career high in carries (at age 29, I might add).  It's the snap counts that are lacking, but he has touched the ball on 42% of the snaps he's been in for (by comparison, Fournette leads the league in touches, but has a 39% touch rate).  Sure, I'd love to see him on the field more, but the fact is he has averaged 14 carries per game, with a low of 12.  The only other RB's to meet/exceed these numbers are all currently RB1's (CMC, Cook, Fournette, Chubb, Zeke, Carson, and Henry).  Of that list of RB's, who was he drafted over?  Those are all stud workhorses, none of which has been in the league more than 4 years.  Ingram is in his 9th season.

Are we all just being a bit greedy, hoping for more?  Did we not expect Lamar to steal a boatload of carries?  Ingram is healthy, has outperformed his ADP, and is not being abused on plays he wasn't gonna touch the ball anyways.  Another little comparison here - Ingram has 566 total yards and 7 TD's on 111 touches.  Gurley has 436 total yards and 7 TD's on 107 touches.  Here is the kicker - Gurley has played 100 more snaps, and has nothing to show for it, except wear and tear.

Last, it is fallacy to say Ingram is losing touches to Edwards & Hill.  Game 1 was actually Ingram's lowest, with only 37% of the RB touches in a 59-10 blowout vs MIA.  Edwards had 17 touches, while Hill had 7.  Since the 24-touch game by Edwards & Hill combined, they have combined for 5, 10, 11, 8, 11, and 8 touches.  A fresh Ingram facing NYJ/CLE in weeks 15 & 16 brings a smile to my face.

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13 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Let's not blur the situation by differentiating between redraft and dynasty.  He is nearing 30, so let's talk about what he has done in 2019.  He is a low-end RB1 in non-PPR leagues, and a top-end RB2 in PPR leagues, unless your scoring is whacky.  You say he has 38% of the team's carries, but I will say it a few other ways - he has 59% of the RB carries, while Gus has 31%, and Justice has 10%.  Mark has 63% of the RB receptions, while Gus has 21%, and Justice has 16%.  Mark has 100% of the RB TD's.  Now that looks alot better for Ingram, huh?

The touches are not lacking - he is on pace to equal his career high in carries (at age 29, I might add).  It's the snap counts that are lacking, but he has touched the ball on 42% of the snaps he's been in for (by comparison, Fournette leads the league in touches, but has a 39% touch rate).  Sure, I'd love to see him on the field more, but the fact is he has averaged 14 carries per game, with a low of 12.  The only other RB's to meet/exceed these numbers are all currently RB1's (CMC, Cook, Fournette, Chubb, Zeke, Carson, and Henry).  Of that list of RB's, who was he drafted over?  Those are all stud workhorses, none of which has been in the league more than 4 years.  Ingram is in his 9th season.

Are we all just being a bit greedy, hoping for more?  Did we not expect Lamar to steal a boatload of carries?  Ingram is healthy, has outperformed his ADP, and is not being abused on plays he wasn't gonna touch the ball anyways.  Another little comparison here - Ingram has 566 total yards and 7 TD's on 111 touches.  Gurley has 436 total yards and 7 TD's on 107 touches.  Here is the kicker - Gurley has played 100 more snaps, and has nothing to show for it, except wear and tear.

Last, it is fallacy to say Ingram is losing touches to Edwards & Hill.  Game 1 was actually Ingram's lowest, with only 37% of the RB touches in a 59-10 blowout vs MIA.  Edwards had 17 touches, while Hill had 7.  Since the 24-touch game by Edwards & Hill combined, they have combined for 5, 10, 11, 8, 11, and 8 touches.  A fresh Ingram facing NYJ/CLE in weeks 15 & 16 brings a smile to my face.

Huh? This thread is over 8 years old, so obviously there is going to be conversations about both dynasty and redraft. I was just pointing out that not everything has to do with ADP.

No, that actually does not look better for Ingram. TDs are the most variable component, and since he's already at 100% of the team rushing TDs he obviously can't go anywhere but down. I don't put any weight on touch percentage, in fact I consider it a slight negative as it telegraphs things to the defense, but several other RBs are averaging more carries per game- Michel, Mack, Hyde, Jacobs, Jones, and Bell. Several others are in the same ballpark- Lindsay, Mixon, Montgomery, AP, Conner, Gore, Gurley, KJ, etc.

Yes, I expected Lamar to steal carries. What I did not expect is for Edwards to steal as many, and I certainly didn't expect for the Ravens to 1) throw this much as a team, and 2) not throw hardly at all to Ingram (and the RBs in general). Lamar averaged ~22.5 passing attempts per game as a starter last year, this year he's at almost 31. All despite playing a schedule which has been incredibly conducive to running the ball.

I think we have different definitions of "fallacy"- it's a simple fact that he is losing touches to Edwards and Hill, you gave the numbers yourself. Do you think having 59% of RB carries is a huge amount?

Again, no one is complaining about his overall scoring in fantasy, but the fact remains that it's been highly variable and inflated because of several short TD runs, which are unreliable. Generally speaking you want more touches, especially receptions, in order to have both a higher floor and ceiling. :shrug:

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NE Will game plan to stop Jackson so it’s possible Ingram has a respectable stat line, however I just dealt for Ingram in non-ppr dynasty so the jinx is on. 

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Think Ingram gets 60ish and a TD.  About as good as anyone can expect from their RB against this def.

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5 minutes ago, humpback said:

Huh? This thread is over 8 years old, so obviously there is going to be conversations about both dynasty and redraft. I was just pointing out that not everything has to do with ADP.  For redraft, ADP has everything to do it.  And yes, he is outperforming his ADP, by a good amount.

No, that actually does not look better for Ingram. TDs are the most variable component, and since he's already at 100% of the team rushing TDs he obviously can't go anywhere but down. I don't put any weight on touch percentage, in fact I consider it a slight negative as it telegraphs things to the defense, but several other RBs are averaging more carries per game- Michel, Mack, Hyde, Jacobs, Jones, and Bell. Several others are in the same ballpark- Lindsay, Mixon, Montgomery, AP, Conner, Gore, Gurley, KJ, etc.  So let me get this straight - having 100% of his team's RB TD's is a negative?  He is their unquestioned GL RB, and trails only Cook, Jones, and CMC in rushing TD's.  As far as being a slight negative, it hasn't hindered Ingram thus far - he is averaging 4.7 YPC, even with his bulk of GL work.  As for your first list of other RB's, which ones had a lower ADP?  Hyde stands out, but the rest were all similar or much higher.  And how is Hyde doing?  13 spots below him in non-PPR, and 17 spots in PPR.  Would you rather have Hyde?  Of your second list of RB's, which ones had a lower ADP?  Gore and Peterson stick out, but the rest were similar or much higher.  In PPR, Gore and AP are currently RB's 37 & 42.  Would you rather have either of them?  BTW, of the RB's you listed, you do realize 4 of them were late 1st or 2nd round picks (Bell, Conner, Mixon, Gurley), yet he is ahead of all of them in non-PPR, and trails only Conner in PPR?

Yes, I expected Lamar to steal carries. What I did not expect is for Edwards to steal as many, and I certainly didn't expect for the Ravens to 1) throw this much as a team, and 2) not throw hardly at all to Ingram (and the RBs in general). Lamar averaged ~22.5 passing attempts per game as a starter last year, this year he's at almost 31. All despite playing a schedule which has been incredibly conducive to running the ball.  BAL is a running team, averaging 37 carries a game.  MIN is also a running team, averaging 33 carries a game.  Mattison has 16 more carries than Edwards, so is he "stealing" from Cook?  I know I am going way back, but did Roland Harper "steal" 240 carries from Walter Payton in 1978 when Walter had 333?  Let me just ask, how many carries did you expect Ingram to get this year?  As for the RB receptions, I will certainly concede - Lamar has only thrown 16 times to Ingram and Edwards combined - and they have caught all 16.  Let's see some more dump offs, Lamar!

I think we have different definitions of "fallacy"- it's a simple fact that he is losing touches to Edwards and Hill, you gave the numbers yourself. Do you think having 59% of RB carries is a huge amount?  Never expected a huge percentage, nor should anyone else have.  As much as BAL runs, any RB would surely fold with a huge cut of the BAL rushing attack.  And to say it's a simple fact he is losing touches is funny.  Wouldn't he be losing touches to Edwards and Hill if they each only had 1 carry?  I don't think Ingram is losing touches - besides a few more catches, he is doing just fine.

Again, no one is complaining about his overall scoring in fantasy, but the fact remains that it's been highly variable and inflated because of several short TD runs, which are unreliable. Generally speaking you want more touches, especially receptions, in order to have both a higher floor and ceiling. :shrug:  It kinda goes without saying that more touches equates to higher floor and ceiling, but the fact is he hasn't finished lower than RB33 (RB3) in any given week.  At worst he has been a flex, and at best he has finished as THE RB1.  Ingram's bread and butter for his entire career has been his TD's.  He maxed out at 230 carries in 2017, and he maxed out at 12 TD's the same year.  This year, he is on pace for 226 carries and 16 TD's.  Just enjoy the ride, and hope for some more catches.

 

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27 minutes ago, The Captain said:

NE Will game plan to stop Jackson so it’s possible Ingram has a respectable stat line, however I just dealt for Ingram in non-ppr dynasty so the jinx is on. 

Ingram will gain 5-6 yards on 1st down and Harbug will be disgusted by the great run and remove him from the game in favor of some really stupid play that doesn't work. If they luck into a 1st down on 3rd down, they will repeat the process.

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:
2 hours ago, humpback said:

Huh? This thread is over 8 years old, so obviously there is going to be conversations about both dynasty and redraft. I was just pointing out that not everything has to do with ADP.  For redraft, ADP has everything to do it.  And yes, he is outperforming his ADP, by a good amount. And as I pointed out, this thread is over 8 years old, so not everyone is discussing it from a redraft perspective. If you've owned him in dynasty or traded for him this year, his ADP is irrelevant.

No, that actually does not look better for Ingram. TDs are the most variable component, and since he's already at 100% of the team rushing TDs he obviously can't go anywhere but down. I don't put any weight on touch percentage, in fact I consider it a slight negative as it telegraphs things to the defense, but several other RBs are averaging more carries per game- Michel, Mack, Hyde, Jacobs, Jones, and Bell. Several others are in the same ballpark- Lindsay, Mixon, Montgomery, AP, Conner, Gore, Gurley, KJ, etc.  So let me get this straight - having 100% of his team's RB TD's is a negative?  He is their unquestioned GL RB, and trails only Cook, Jones, and CMC in rushing TD's.  As far as being a slight negative, it hasn't hindered Ingram thus far - he is averaging 4.7 YPC, even with his bulk of GL work.  As for your first list of other RB's, which ones had a lower ADP?  Hyde stands out, but the rest were all similar or much higher.  And how is Hyde doing?  13 spots below him in non-PPR, and 17 spots in PPR.  Would you rather have Hyde?  Of your second list of RB's, which ones had a lower ADP?  Gore and Peterson stick out, but the rest were similar or much higher.  In PPR, Gore and AP are currently RB's 37 & 42.  Would you rather have either of them?  BTW, of the RB's you listed, you do realize 4 of them were late 1st or 2nd round picks (Bell, Conner, Mixon, Gurley), yet he is ahead of all of them in non-PPR, and trails only Conner in PPR? It gives context- it's highly unlikely to continue, so if you're banking on it staying that way for the rest of the year, yes, it's a negative. I would consider him the GL back, but it's not as one sided as you seem to think- Edwards has 8 carries inside the 10 compared with 14 for Ingram. Again, if that continues, it's only a matter of time before Edwards vultures some TDs. Saying it hasn't hindered him so far is ACTUALLY a fallacy, it's entirely possible that his ypc would be even higher without it. Already answered the ADP thing (again), I'm not comparing him to his ADP or other players, I'm discussing his usage in context with his team and their game script.

Yes, I expected Lamar to steal carries. What I did not expect is for Edwards to steal as many, and I certainly didn't expect for the Ravens to 1) throw this much as a team, and 2) not throw hardly at all to Ingram (and the RBs in general). Lamar averaged ~22.5 passing attempts per game as a starter last year, this year he's at almost 31. All despite playing a schedule which has been incredibly conducive to running the ball.  BAL is a running team, averaging 37 carries a game.  MIN is also a running team, averaging 33 carries a game.  Mattison has 16 more carries than Edwards, so is he "stealing" from Cook?  I know I am going way back, but did Roland Harper "steal" 240 carries from Walter Payton in 1978 when Walter had 333?  Let me just ask, how many carries did you expect Ingram to get this year?  As for the RB receptions, I will certainly concede - Lamar has only thrown 16 times to Ingram and Edwards combined - and they have caught all 16.  Let's see some more dump offs, Lamar! Lol, Payton had almost 400 touches that year and Cook is on pace for ~375 this year- do you really think that's remotely comparable? I expected Ingram to average ~16 carries and 2-3 receptions per game. He is obviously below that, particularly when you consider the soft schedule and positive game flow he's had so far.

I think we have different definitions of "fallacy"- it's a simple fact that he is losing touches to Edwards and Hill, you gave the numbers yourself. Do you think having 59% of RB carries is a huge amount?  Never expected a huge percentage, nor should anyone else have.  As much as BAL runs, any RB would surely fold with a huge cut of the BAL rushing attack.  And to say it's a simple fact he is losing touches is funny.  Wouldn't he be losing touches to Edwards and Hill if they each only had 1 carry?  I don't think Ingram is losing touches - besides a few more catches, he is doing just fine. You framed 59% as a positive, which is why I asked. Of course, it is a fact that every RB loses touches, which is why you calling it a fallacy is funny.

Again, no one is complaining about his overall scoring in fantasy, but the fact remains that it's been highly variable and inflated because of several short TD runs, which are unreliable. Generally speaking you want more touches, especially receptions, in order to have both a higher floor and ceiling. :shrug:  It kinda goes without saying that more touches equates to higher floor and ceiling, but the fact is he hasn't finished lower than RB33 (RB3) in any given week.  At worst he has been a flex, and at best he has finished as THE RB1.  Ingram's bread and butter for his entire career has been his TD's.  He maxed out at 230 carries in 2017, and he maxed out at 12 TD's the same year.  This year, he is on pace for 226 carries and 16 TD's.  Just enjoy the ride, and hope for some more catches. Disagree. IMO for fantasy purposes his bread and butter has been receiving, which is way down this year. Without the passing game work, you get the wild variances that's we've seen because he's now much more TD dependent.

I think I've made myself pretty clear, but I'll try one last time- I'm not disappointed in the total fantasy points Ingram has scored this year. What's somewhat disappointing to me is the number of touches (particularly in the passing game), and even more so considering the opponents and positive game flows so far. Two weeks ago they played Cincy at home- a winless team with the worst rushing defense in the NFL by far, and they were in the lead almost the entire game- and Ingram had 15 touches. Same 15 touches under similar positive game flow conditions against the second worst rushing defense in the NFL Arizona, and he got the same 15 touches.

If his splits continue (snap percentage, carries percentage, inside the 10 percentage, targets per game, etc.), his fantasy production is likely to take a hit when he faces tougher opponents and game scripts. That's all I'm saying, and it's fine if you disagree. Hopefully they get him more involved after the bye and it'll all be moot because to this point, his production has been driven by several short TD runs, I don't think that's sustainable.

Edited by humpback

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10 hours ago, humpback said:

I think I've made myself pretty clear, but I'll try one last time- I'm not disappointed in the total fantasy points Ingram has scored this year. What's somewhat disappointing to me is the number of touches (particularly in the passing game), and even more so considering the opponents and positive game flows so far. Two weeks ago they played Cincy at home- a winless team with the worst rushing defense in the NFL by far, and they were in the lead almost the entire game- and Ingram had 15 touches. Same 15 touches under similar positive game flow conditions against the second worst rushing defense in the NFL Arizona, and he got the same 15 touches.

If his splits continue (snap percentage, carries percentage, inside the 10 percentage, targets per game, etc.), his fantasy production is likely to take a hit when he faces tougher opponents and game scripts. That's all I'm saying, and it's fine if you disagree. Hopefully they get him more involved after the bye and it'll all be moot because to this point, his production has been driven by several short TD runs, I don't think that's sustainable.

An awesome discussion.  Lemme reboot and reply later

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Quote

Mark Ingram rushed 15 times for 115 yards in Week 9 against the Patriots.

Ingram came out hot, burning the Patriots with a 53-yard run on the Ravens’ third drive. He lost a red-zone carry to Gus Edwards on the next play, who converted it into a touchdown. Ingram and Lamar Jackson salted away the Patriots with 31 carries, helping them control the time of possession and keep New England's offense off the field. Ingram is on pace for 1,170 yards and 14 touchdowns. He gets a matchup with the Bengals in Week 10.

Nov 3, 2019, 11:38 PM ET

 

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Not sure what it is, but there must be some reason why coaches refuse to make him a true workhorse. It's a shame, he would be a top 5 FF RB IMO if they'd just feed him.

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On 10/31/2019 at 4:53 PM, humpback said:

I think I've made myself pretty clear, but I'll try one last time- I'm not disappointed in the total fantasy points Ingram has scored this year. What's somewhat disappointing to me is the number of touches (particularly in the passing game), and even more so considering the opponents and positive game flows so far. Two weeks ago they played Cincy at home- a winless team with the worst rushing defense in the NFL by far, and they were in the lead almost the entire game- and Ingram had 15 touches. Same 15 touches under similar positive game flow conditions against the second worst rushing defense in the NFL Arizona, and he got the same 15 touches.

If his splits continue (snap percentage, carries percentage, inside the 10 percentage, targets per game, etc.), his fantasy production is likely to take a hit when he faces tougher opponents and game scripts. That's all I'm saying, and it's fine if you disagree. Hopefully they get him more involved after the bye and it'll all be moot because to this point, his production has been driven by several short TD runs, I don't think that's sustainable.

Another week of "disappointing" touches?  He had 15 carries, less than 1 carry over his 14.1 average.  He had 2 catches, less than 1 catch over his 1.7 average.  He had 60% of the RB carries, only 1% more than his average. I would say his night couldn't have been much closer to his average.  Oh, and he moved up from RB14 to RB12 in PPR, and without scoring a TD.  He is now a RB1, even in PPR.

Next week he faces CIN, and BAL will be running wild.  What do I expect from Ingram?  About 15 carries and 2 catches, once again.

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11 minutes ago, humpback said:

Not sure what it is, but there must be some reason why coaches refuse to make him a true workhorse. It's a shame, he would be a top 5 FF RB IMO if they'd just feed him.

Perhaps it's his age?  But then again, is he really that far off from being a "true workhorse" in today's NFL?  He is on pace for 256 touches (16 per game).  Last year, only 5 RB's averaged over 18 touches (Elliott, Barkley, CMC, Gurley, and DJ).

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54 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Another week of "disappointing" touches?  He had 15 carries, less than 1 carry over his 14.1 average.  He had 2 catches, less than 1 catch over his 1.7 average.  He had 60% of the RB carries, only 1% more than his average. I would say his night couldn't have been much closer to his average.  Oh, and he moved up from RB14 to RB12 in PPR, and without scoring a TD.  He is now a RB1, even in PPR.

Next week he faces CIN, and BAL will be running wild.  What do I expect from Ingram?  About 15 carries and 2 catches, once again.

Once again, if you simply go by his fantasy production last night, it isn't disappointing. However, if you consider the full picture, IMO it's another very disappointing game. The Ravens had the lead from start to finish, the offense put up 30 points and they had 3 rushing TDs as a team. He lost a LOT of goal line snaps to the other RBs. Zero receptions until their last (real) possession of the game. Constantly coming off the field after 1 or 2 plays. Etc, etc, etc.

He was THE #1 RB after 3 weeks, and now he's barely hanging on as a low end RB 1 (if that)- he's .4 points ahead of Conner who missed a game and 3.5 ahead of DJ who has missed several. He is 17th in carries despite having a higher ypc than all but 2 guys with more than him and being on the #2 rushing team in attempts and #1 in production in the NFL. He's 45th in targets despite being an excellent pass catcher.

You may not realize it but you're making my point every time you post these "averages"- his should be much higher, that's the whole point.

Edited by humpback
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3 hours ago, humpback said:

Once again, if you simply go by his fantasy production last night, it isn't disappointing. However, if you consider the full picture, IMO it's another very disappointing game. The Ravens had the lead from start to finish, the offense put up 30 points and they had 3 rushing TDs as a team. He lost a LOT of goal line snaps to the other RBs. Zero receptions until their last (real) possession of the game. Constantly coming off the field after 1 or 2 plays. Etc, etc, etc.

He was THE #1 RB after 3 weeks, and now he's barely hanging on as a low end RB 1 (if that)- he's .4 points ahead of Conner who missed a game and 3.5 ahead of DJ who has missed several. He is 17th in carries despite having a higher ypc than all but 2 guys with more than him and being on the #2 rushing team in attempts and #1 in production in the NFL. He's 45th in targets despite being an excellent pass catcher.

You may not realize it but you're making my point every time you post these "averages"- his should be much higher, that's the whole point.

I am not sure I understand your argument or agree you are looking at things as a whole... 

Ingram was taken on average 8th round (8.10 ADP if I recall)...  prior to his signing in Balt.  He is performaning as a Top 12 RB (#11 in PPR format) and only 1 RB drafted after him is doing better (Ekeler - primarily due to Melvin Gordon holdout/situation).  

What more could you ask for in a late round RB pick?  

When you see names like Gurley & Bell well below him on fantasy value YTD, what's not to like? 

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2 hours ago, humpback said:

Once again, if you simply go by his fantasy production last night, it isn't disappointing. However, if you consider the full picture, IMO it's another very disappointing game. The Ravens had the lead from start to finish, the offense put up 30 points and they had 3 rushing TDs as a team. He lost a LOT of goal line snaps to the other RBs. Zero receptions until their last (real) possession of the game. Constantly coming off the field after 1 or 2 plays. Etc, etc, etc.  Very disappointed with 17 touches and 144 total yards?  Greedy much?  Let's see all the RB's with those numbers this week - CMC (27/166), Drake (19/162), and Hyde (19/160) - that's it.  You said he was TD dependent, yet he put up 16.40 FP without a TD.  Does this guy have to log 20+ touches and a TD every week before you stop calling him disappointing?  It seems you are just waiting for him to fall off a cliff, but 8 games into the season, and he is still a RB1.  Let's not forget he was drafted as a low-end RB2 in redraft, and I guarantee at his age, he was considered even lower in dynasty.  If he had the exact same stats to date, yet played for the pass-happy Falcons, would that change how you feel about him?  His 114 rushes would count for 90% of the Falcons RB carries, making him a true workhorse, right?

He was THE #1 RB after 3 weeks, and now he's barely hanging on as a low end RB 1 (if that)- he's .4 points ahead of Conner who missed a game and 3.5 ahead of DJ who has missed several. He is 17th in carries despite having a higher ypc than all but 2 guys with more than him and being on the #2 rushing team in attempts and #1 in production in the NFL. He's 45th in targets despite being an excellent pass catcher.  What do you mean when you say "if that"?  He is a RB1 in any scoring format - plain and simple.  Yes, he IS ahead of Conner and DJ, both of which are hurting their respective fantasy teams with their missed games.  He has outscored Conner in 5 of 9 games, and has outscored DJ in 4 of 7 games (tied in week 1, both zero during Ingram's bye).  And, as you said, he is ahead of both for the season, while both were drafted way higher, or have way higher value in dynasty.  Let's not forget, Ingram is healthy, and has had his bye already.  Conner & DJ are still both hurt, and DJ still has a bye.  Who cares if he is 17th in carries & 45th in targets, as long as he is 12th in fantasy points?  Does anyone care that Derrick Henry has only 11 catches, but is currently RB8?

You may not realize it but you're making my point every time you post these "averages"- his should be much higher, that's the whole point.  No.  The whole point is we are talking about Mark Friggin Ingram!  He wasn't supposed to be a RB1 after week 9, but he is.  I know you are just waiting for him to slide down the rankings so you can come back and say I told you so, but you're gonna have to wait at least another week for that.

 

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I'm not going to quote the whole thing again because it's a waste of time to keep repeating the same things over and over.

You conveniently flip back and forth between touches and fantasy production when you think it helps your "argument", but he actually put up 14.4 points because he fumbled, which was good for RB 19 on the week (likely to be 20th or 21st after tonight). When your offense puts up 30 points and rushes for 3 TDs, yes, I consider that disappointing out of the starting RB.

Is this a trick question? People don't care that Henry only has 11 catches because that's actually on pace to be a career high, two of those receptions were TDs, AND he has 164 carries. Do you think I'd be "disappointed" if Ingram was on pace to smash career highs in all of those categories like Henry is?

Not sure how else to say it- he's putting up decent fantasy numbers, but the potential is there for so much more if they utilized him like many other teams use their #1 RB. I'm not calling him disappointing in the least, it's the relative (lack of) utilization that I'm disappointed in. Let's just agree to disagree. :shrug:

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18 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

I am not sure I understand your argument or agree you are looking at things as a whole... 

Ingram was taken on average 8th round (8.10 ADP if I recall)...  prior to his signing in Balt.  He is performaning as a Top 12 RB (#11 in PPR format) and only 1 RB drafted after him is doing better (Ekeler - primarily due to Melvin Gordon holdout/situation).  

What more could you ask for in a late round RB pick?  

When you see names like Gurley & Bell well below him on fantasy value YTD, what's not to like? 

To be fair, his ADP right before the start of the season was 4.03 (I just checked FFCalc).  The problem is, @humpback is acting like he was a late first/early second.  And if he is talking about dynasty, his age alone puts him much lower.  As an Ingram owner, I kind of understand Hump's frustration, but only in terms of catches.  I think he is way off base in terms of carries.  He is on pace to equal the most in his NFL career, and his weekly carries have been very consistent.  So consistent, in fact, that his weekly lowest of 12 is matched by only CMC, Cook, Zeke, Chubb, Henry, and Carson, all of which are 4-6 years younger.  No one is complaining about his rushing TD's, as only 3 RB's have more (CMC, Cook, Jones).  Ingram is a very good receiver, and it would be nice to see him with about 48 for the season.  3 per game isn't asking alot, but he is currently on pace for only 28.

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1 minute ago, TheWinz said:

To be fair, his ADP right before the start of the season was 4.03 (I just checked FFCalc).  The problem is, @humpback is acting like he was a late first/early second.  And if he is talking about dynasty, his age alone puts him much lower.  As an Ingram owner, I kind of understand Hump's frustration, but only in terms of catches.  I think he is way off base in terms of carries.  He is on pace to equal the most in his NFL career, and his weekly carries have been very consistent.  So consistent, in fact, that his weekly lowest of 12 is matched by only CMC, Cook, Zeke, Chubb, Henry, and Carson, all of which are 4-6 years younger.  No one is complaining about his rushing TD's, as only 3 RB's have more (CMC, Cook, Jones).  Ingram is a very good receiver, and it would be nice to see him with about 48 for the season.  3 per game isn't asking alot, but he is currently on pace for only 28.

Good point, but from a Dynasty perspective, who would pay that price?  I agree he is "over achieving" his ADP and since I got him in Feb, I am thrilled! 

And all the players you reference are being taken Top 2 rounds compared to Ingram.  This is a clear "excellent value for the investment"!  

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9 minutes ago, humpback said:

I'm not going to quote the whole thing again because it's a waste of time to keep repeating the same things over and over.

You conveniently flip back and forth between touches and fantasy production when you think it helps your "argument", but he actually put up 14.4 points because he fumbled, which was good for RB 19 on the week (likely to be 20th or 21st after tonight). When your offense puts up 30 points and rushes for 3 TDs, yes, I consider that disappointing out of the starting RB.  Talk about cherry picking!  Of those 3 TD's, 2 were by Lamar, and the other was the play after he rumbled for 53 yards, then fumbled.

Is this a trick question? People don't care that Henry only has 11 catches because that's actually on pace to be a career high, two of those receptions were TDs, AND he has 164 carries. Do you think I'd be "disappointed" if Ingram was on pace to smash career highs in all of those categories like Henry is?  Would anyone be disappointed if a RB smashed career highs in every category?

Not sure how else to say it- he's putting up decent fantasy numbers, but the potential is there for so much more if they utilized him like many other teams use their #1 RB. I'm not calling him disappointing in the least, it's the relative (lack of) utilization that I'm disappointed in. Let's just agree to disagree. :shrug:  I don't want to agree - I must break you!  Just kidding.  Lack of carries - disagree.  Lack of catches - agree.  All the rest is just fluff.

 

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