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On 10/23/2019 at 10:22 AM, humpback said:

I agree, which is why I'm having trouble reconciling your take that you expected his low-ish workload, you view him as a flex/matchup dependent RB going forward, yet you are very happy with that. Also, ADP isn't really relevant for people who owned him in dynasty/keeper leagues (like myself) or those who acquired him via trade.

I don't think anyone is unhappy with his total fantasy production- there's no denying that he's scored more total points than reasonably expected to this point. However, he's been very boom or bust- he's had 2 phenomenal fantasy games, 2 decent games, and 3 stinkers. The disappointing part is his touches- so far he's only received ~38% of the teams carries, and he has 12 targets in 7 games. All under almost ideal conditions for a RB to thrive. If that usage rate continues, his fantasy production is going to plummet. What's the over/under in his next game vs. NE, something like 10 carries for 35 yards, 1 reception for 6?

So while his current overall fantasy production isn't disappointing, his number of touches has been, especially when factoring in the nearly ideal circumstances they've faced so far. He's been saved by the TDs, which we all know is highly variable. Generally speaking, more touches is going to lead to more fantasy production (especially receptions). That's what gives someone a high floor, not relying on short TD runs.

Let's not blur the situation by differentiating between redraft and dynasty.  He is nearing 30, so let's talk about what he has done in 2019.  He is a low-end RB1 in non-PPR leagues, and a top-end RB2 in PPR leagues, unless your scoring is whacky.  You say he has 38% of the team's carries, but I will say it a few other ways - he has 59% of the RB carries, while Gus has 31%, and Justice has 10%.  Mark has 63% of the RB receptions, while Gus has 21%, and Justice has 16%.  Mark has 100% of the RB TD's.  Now that looks alot better for Ingram, huh?

The touches are not lacking - he is on pace to equal his career high in carries (at age 29, I might add).  It's the snap counts that are lacking, but he has touched the ball on 42% of the snaps he's been in for (by comparison, Fournette leads the league in touches, but has a 39% touch rate).  Sure, I'd love to see him on the field more, but the fact is he has averaged 14 carries per game, with a low of 12.  The only other RB's to meet/exceed these numbers are all currently RB1's (CMC, Cook, Fournette, Chubb, Zeke, Carson, and Henry).  Of that list of RB's, who was he drafted over?  Those are all stud workhorses, none of which has been in the league more than 4 years.  Ingram is in his 9th season.

Are we all just being a bit greedy, hoping for more?  Did we not expect Lamar to steal a boatload of carries?  Ingram is healthy, has outperformed his ADP, and is not being abused on plays he wasn't gonna touch the ball anyways.  Another little comparison here - Ingram has 566 total yards and 7 TD's on 111 touches.  Gurley has 436 total yards and 7 TD's on 107 touches.  Here is the kicker - Gurley has played 100 more snaps, and has nothing to show for it, except wear and tear.

Last, it is fallacy to say Ingram is losing touches to Edwards & Hill.  Game 1 was actually Ingram's lowest, with only 37% of the RB touches in a 59-10 blowout vs MIA.  Edwards had 17 touches, while Hill had 7.  Since the 24-touch game by Edwards & Hill combined, they have combined for 5, 10, 11, 8, 11, and 8 touches.  A fresh Ingram facing NYJ/CLE in weeks 15 & 16 brings a smile to my face.

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13 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Let's not blur the situation by differentiating between redraft and dynasty.  He is nearing 30, so let's talk about what he has done in 2019.  He is a low-end RB1 in non-PPR leagues, and a top-end RB2 in PPR leagues, unless your scoring is whacky.  You say he has 38% of the team's carries, but I will say it a few other ways - he has 59% of the RB carries, while Gus has 31%, and Justice has 10%.  Mark has 63% of the RB receptions, while Gus has 21%, and Justice has 16%.  Mark has 100% of the RB TD's.  Now that looks alot better for Ingram, huh?

The touches are not lacking - he is on pace to equal his career high in carries (at age 29, I might add).  It's the snap counts that are lacking, but he has touched the ball on 42% of the snaps he's been in for (by comparison, Fournette leads the league in touches, but has a 39% touch rate).  Sure, I'd love to see him on the field more, but the fact is he has averaged 14 carries per game, with a low of 12.  The only other RB's to meet/exceed these numbers are all currently RB1's (CMC, Cook, Fournette, Chubb, Zeke, Carson, and Henry).  Of that list of RB's, who was he drafted over?  Those are all stud workhorses, none of which has been in the league more than 4 years.  Ingram is in his 9th season.

Are we all just being a bit greedy, hoping for more?  Did we not expect Lamar to steal a boatload of carries?  Ingram is healthy, has outperformed his ADP, and is not being abused on plays he wasn't gonna touch the ball anyways.  Another little comparison here - Ingram has 566 total yards and 7 TD's on 111 touches.  Gurley has 436 total yards and 7 TD's on 107 touches.  Here is the kicker - Gurley has played 100 more snaps, and has nothing to show for it, except wear and tear.

Last, it is fallacy to say Ingram is losing touches to Edwards & Hill.  Game 1 was actually Ingram's lowest, with only 37% of the RB touches in a 59-10 blowout vs MIA.  Edwards had 17 touches, while Hill had 7.  Since the 24-touch game by Edwards & Hill combined, they have combined for 5, 10, 11, 8, 11, and 8 touches.  A fresh Ingram facing NYJ/CLE in weeks 15 & 16 brings a smile to my face.

Huh? This thread is over 8 years old, so obviously there is going to be conversations about both dynasty and redraft. I was just pointing out that not everything has to do with ADP.

No, that actually does not look better for Ingram. TDs are the most variable component, and since he's already at 100% of the team rushing TDs he obviously can't go anywhere but down. I don't put any weight on touch percentage, in fact I consider it a slight negative as it telegraphs things to the defense, but several other RBs are averaging more carries per game- Michel, Mack, Hyde, Jacobs, Jones, and Bell. Several others are in the same ballpark- Lindsay, Mixon, Montgomery, AP, Conner, Gore, Gurley, KJ, etc.

Yes, I expected Lamar to steal carries. What I did not expect is for Edwards to steal as many, and I certainly didn't expect for the Ravens to 1) throw this much as a team, and 2) not throw hardly at all to Ingram (and the RBs in general). Lamar averaged ~22.5 passing attempts per game as a starter last year, this year he's at almost 31. All despite playing a schedule which has been incredibly conducive to running the ball.

I think we have different definitions of "fallacy"- it's a simple fact that he is losing touches to Edwards and Hill, you gave the numbers yourself. Do you think having 59% of RB carries is a huge amount?

Again, no one is complaining about his overall scoring in fantasy, but the fact remains that it's been highly variable and inflated because of several short TD runs, which are unreliable. Generally speaking you want more touches, especially receptions, in order to have both a higher floor and ceiling. :shrug:

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NE Will game plan to stop Jackson so it’s possible Ingram has a respectable stat line, however I just dealt for Ingram in non-ppr dynasty so the jinx is on. 

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Think Ingram gets 60ish and a TD.  About as good as anyone can expect from their RB against this def.

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5 minutes ago, humpback said:

Huh? This thread is over 8 years old, so obviously there is going to be conversations about both dynasty and redraft. I was just pointing out that not everything has to do with ADP.  For redraft, ADP has everything to do it.  And yes, he is outperforming his ADP, by a good amount.

No, that actually does not look better for Ingram. TDs are the most variable component, and since he's already at 100% of the team rushing TDs he obviously can't go anywhere but down. I don't put any weight on touch percentage, in fact I consider it a slight negative as it telegraphs things to the defense, but several other RBs are averaging more carries per game- Michel, Mack, Hyde, Jacobs, Jones, and Bell. Several others are in the same ballpark- Lindsay, Mixon, Montgomery, AP, Conner, Gore, Gurley, KJ, etc.  So let me get this straight - having 100% of his team's RB TD's is a negative?  He is their unquestioned GL RB, and trails only Cook, Jones, and CMC in rushing TD's.  As far as being a slight negative, it hasn't hindered Ingram thus far - he is averaging 4.7 YPC, even with his bulk of GL work.  As for your first list of other RB's, which ones had a lower ADP?  Hyde stands out, but the rest were all similar or much higher.  And how is Hyde doing?  13 spots below him in non-PPR, and 17 spots in PPR.  Would you rather have Hyde?  Of your second list of RB's, which ones had a lower ADP?  Gore and Peterson stick out, but the rest were similar or much higher.  In PPR, Gore and AP are currently RB's 37 & 42.  Would you rather have either of them?  BTW, of the RB's you listed, you do realize 4 of them were late 1st or 2nd round picks (Bell, Conner, Mixon, Gurley), yet he is ahead of all of them in non-PPR, and trails only Conner in PPR?

Yes, I expected Lamar to steal carries. What I did not expect is for Edwards to steal as many, and I certainly didn't expect for the Ravens to 1) throw this much as a team, and 2) not throw hardly at all to Ingram (and the RBs in general). Lamar averaged ~22.5 passing attempts per game as a starter last year, this year he's at almost 31. All despite playing a schedule which has been incredibly conducive to running the ball.  BAL is a running team, averaging 37 carries a game.  MIN is also a running team, averaging 33 carries a game.  Mattison has 16 more carries than Edwards, so is he "stealing" from Cook?  I know I am going way back, but did Roland Harper "steal" 240 carries from Walter Payton in 1978 when Walter had 333?  Let me just ask, how many carries did you expect Ingram to get this year?  As for the RB receptions, I will certainly concede - Lamar has only thrown 16 times to Ingram and Edwards combined - and they have caught all 16.  Let's see some more dump offs, Lamar!

I think we have different definitions of "fallacy"- it's a simple fact that he is losing touches to Edwards and Hill, you gave the numbers yourself. Do you think having 59% of RB carries is a huge amount?  Never expected a huge percentage, nor should anyone else have.  As much as BAL runs, any RB would surely fold with a huge cut of the BAL rushing attack.  And to say it's a simple fact he is losing touches is funny.  Wouldn't he be losing touches to Edwards and Hill if they each only had 1 carry?  I don't think Ingram is losing touches - besides a few more catches, he is doing just fine.

Again, no one is complaining about his overall scoring in fantasy, but the fact remains that it's been highly variable and inflated because of several short TD runs, which are unreliable. Generally speaking you want more touches, especially receptions, in order to have both a higher floor and ceiling. :shrug:  It kinda goes without saying that more touches equates to higher floor and ceiling, but the fact is he hasn't finished lower than RB33 (RB3) in any given week.  At worst he has been a flex, and at best he has finished as THE RB1.  Ingram's bread and butter for his entire career has been his TD's.  He maxed out at 230 carries in 2017, and he maxed out at 12 TD's the same year.  This year, he is on pace for 226 carries and 16 TD's.  Just enjoy the ride, and hope for some more catches.

 

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27 minutes ago, The Captain said:

NE Will game plan to stop Jackson so it’s possible Ingram has a respectable stat line, however I just dealt for Ingram in non-ppr dynasty so the jinx is on. 

Ingram will gain 5-6 yards on 1st down and Harbug will be disgusted by the great run and remove him from the game in favor of some really stupid play that doesn't work. If they luck into a 1st down on 3rd down, they will repeat the process.

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:
2 hours ago, humpback said:

Huh? This thread is over 8 years old, so obviously there is going to be conversations about both dynasty and redraft. I was just pointing out that not everything has to do with ADP.  For redraft, ADP has everything to do it.  And yes, he is outperforming his ADP, by a good amount. And as I pointed out, this thread is over 8 years old, so not everyone is discussing it from a redraft perspective. If you've owned him in dynasty or traded for him this year, his ADP is irrelevant.

No, that actually does not look better for Ingram. TDs are the most variable component, and since he's already at 100% of the team rushing TDs he obviously can't go anywhere but down. I don't put any weight on touch percentage, in fact I consider it a slight negative as it telegraphs things to the defense, but several other RBs are averaging more carries per game- Michel, Mack, Hyde, Jacobs, Jones, and Bell. Several others are in the same ballpark- Lindsay, Mixon, Montgomery, AP, Conner, Gore, Gurley, KJ, etc.  So let me get this straight - having 100% of his team's RB TD's is a negative?  He is their unquestioned GL RB, and trails only Cook, Jones, and CMC in rushing TD's.  As far as being a slight negative, it hasn't hindered Ingram thus far - he is averaging 4.7 YPC, even with his bulk of GL work.  As for your first list of other RB's, which ones had a lower ADP?  Hyde stands out, but the rest were all similar or much higher.  And how is Hyde doing?  13 spots below him in non-PPR, and 17 spots in PPR.  Would you rather have Hyde?  Of your second list of RB's, which ones had a lower ADP?  Gore and Peterson stick out, but the rest were similar or much higher.  In PPR, Gore and AP are currently RB's 37 & 42.  Would you rather have either of them?  BTW, of the RB's you listed, you do realize 4 of them were late 1st or 2nd round picks (Bell, Conner, Mixon, Gurley), yet he is ahead of all of them in non-PPR, and trails only Conner in PPR? It gives context- it's highly unlikely to continue, so if you're banking on it staying that way for the rest of the year, yes, it's a negative. I would consider him the GL back, but it's not as one sided as you seem to think- Edwards has 8 carries inside the 10 compared with 14 for Ingram. Again, if that continues, it's only a matter of time before Edwards vultures some TDs. Saying it hasn't hindered him so far is ACTUALLY a fallacy, it's entirely possible that his ypc would be even higher without it. Already answered the ADP thing (again), I'm not comparing him to his ADP or other players, I'm discussing his usage in context with his team and their game script.

Yes, I expected Lamar to steal carries. What I did not expect is for Edwards to steal as many, and I certainly didn't expect for the Ravens to 1) throw this much as a team, and 2) not throw hardly at all to Ingram (and the RBs in general). Lamar averaged ~22.5 passing attempts per game as a starter last year, this year he's at almost 31. All despite playing a schedule which has been incredibly conducive to running the ball.  BAL is a running team, averaging 37 carries a game.  MIN is also a running team, averaging 33 carries a game.  Mattison has 16 more carries than Edwards, so is he "stealing" from Cook?  I know I am going way back, but did Roland Harper "steal" 240 carries from Walter Payton in 1978 when Walter had 333?  Let me just ask, how many carries did you expect Ingram to get this year?  As for the RB receptions, I will certainly concede - Lamar has only thrown 16 times to Ingram and Edwards combined - and they have caught all 16.  Let's see some more dump offs, Lamar! Lol, Payton had almost 400 touches that year and Cook is on pace for ~375 this year- do you really think that's remotely comparable? I expected Ingram to average ~16 carries and 2-3 receptions per game. He is obviously below that, particularly when you consider the soft schedule and positive game flow he's had so far.

I think we have different definitions of "fallacy"- it's a simple fact that he is losing touches to Edwards and Hill, you gave the numbers yourself. Do you think having 59% of RB carries is a huge amount?  Never expected a huge percentage, nor should anyone else have.  As much as BAL runs, any RB would surely fold with a huge cut of the BAL rushing attack.  And to say it's a simple fact he is losing touches is funny.  Wouldn't he be losing touches to Edwards and Hill if they each only had 1 carry?  I don't think Ingram is losing touches - besides a few more catches, he is doing just fine. You framed 59% as a positive, which is why I asked. Of course, it is a fact that every RB loses touches, which is why you calling it a fallacy is funny.

Again, no one is complaining about his overall scoring in fantasy, but the fact remains that it's been highly variable and inflated because of several short TD runs, which are unreliable. Generally speaking you want more touches, especially receptions, in order to have both a higher floor and ceiling. :shrug:  It kinda goes without saying that more touches equates to higher floor and ceiling, but the fact is he hasn't finished lower than RB33 (RB3) in any given week.  At worst he has been a flex, and at best he has finished as THE RB1.  Ingram's bread and butter for his entire career has been his TD's.  He maxed out at 230 carries in 2017, and he maxed out at 12 TD's the same year.  This year, he is on pace for 226 carries and 16 TD's.  Just enjoy the ride, and hope for some more catches. Disagree. IMO for fantasy purposes his bread and butter has been receiving, which is way down this year. Without the passing game work, you get the wild variances that's we've seen because he's now much more TD dependent.

I think I've made myself pretty clear, but I'll try one last time- I'm not disappointed in the total fantasy points Ingram has scored this year. What's somewhat disappointing to me is the number of touches (particularly in the passing game), and even more so considering the opponents and positive game flows so far. Two weeks ago they played Cincy at home- a winless team with the worst rushing defense in the NFL by far, and they were in the lead almost the entire game- and Ingram had 15 touches. Same 15 touches under similar positive game flow conditions against the second worst rushing defense in the NFL Arizona, and he got the same 15 touches.

If his splits continue (snap percentage, carries percentage, inside the 10 percentage, targets per game, etc.), his fantasy production is likely to take a hit when he faces tougher opponents and game scripts. That's all I'm saying, and it's fine if you disagree. Hopefully they get him more involved after the bye and it'll all be moot because to this point, his production has been driven by several short TD runs, I don't think that's sustainable.

Edited by humpback

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10 hours ago, humpback said:

I think I've made myself pretty clear, but I'll try one last time- I'm not disappointed in the total fantasy points Ingram has scored this year. What's somewhat disappointing to me is the number of touches (particularly in the passing game), and even more so considering the opponents and positive game flows so far. Two weeks ago they played Cincy at home- a winless team with the worst rushing defense in the NFL by far, and they were in the lead almost the entire game- and Ingram had 15 touches. Same 15 touches under similar positive game flow conditions against the second worst rushing defense in the NFL Arizona, and he got the same 15 touches.

If his splits continue (snap percentage, carries percentage, inside the 10 percentage, targets per game, etc.), his fantasy production is likely to take a hit when he faces tougher opponents and game scripts. That's all I'm saying, and it's fine if you disagree. Hopefully they get him more involved after the bye and it'll all be moot because to this point, his production has been driven by several short TD runs, I don't think that's sustainable.

An awesome discussion.  Lemme reboot and reply later

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Quote

Mark Ingram rushed 15 times for 115 yards in Week 9 against the Patriots.

Ingram came out hot, burning the Patriots with a 53-yard run on the Ravens’ third drive. He lost a red-zone carry to Gus Edwards on the next play, who converted it into a touchdown. Ingram and Lamar Jackson salted away the Patriots with 31 carries, helping them control the time of possession and keep New England's offense off the field. Ingram is on pace for 1,170 yards and 14 touchdowns. He gets a matchup with the Bengals in Week 10.

Nov 3, 2019, 11:38 PM ET

 

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Not sure what it is, but there must be some reason why coaches refuse to make him a true workhorse. It's a shame, he would be a top 5 FF RB IMO if they'd just feed him.

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On 10/31/2019 at 4:53 PM, humpback said:

I think I've made myself pretty clear, but I'll try one last time- I'm not disappointed in the total fantasy points Ingram has scored this year. What's somewhat disappointing to me is the number of touches (particularly in the passing game), and even more so considering the opponents and positive game flows so far. Two weeks ago they played Cincy at home- a winless team with the worst rushing defense in the NFL by far, and they were in the lead almost the entire game- and Ingram had 15 touches. Same 15 touches under similar positive game flow conditions against the second worst rushing defense in the NFL Arizona, and he got the same 15 touches.

If his splits continue (snap percentage, carries percentage, inside the 10 percentage, targets per game, etc.), his fantasy production is likely to take a hit when he faces tougher opponents and game scripts. That's all I'm saying, and it's fine if you disagree. Hopefully they get him more involved after the bye and it'll all be moot because to this point, his production has been driven by several short TD runs, I don't think that's sustainable.

Another week of "disappointing" touches?  He had 15 carries, less than 1 carry over his 14.1 average.  He had 2 catches, less than 1 catch over his 1.7 average.  He had 60% of the RB carries, only 1% more than his average. I would say his night couldn't have been much closer to his average.  Oh, and he moved up from RB14 to RB12 in PPR, and without scoring a TD.  He is now a RB1, even in PPR.

Next week he faces CIN, and BAL will be running wild.  What do I expect from Ingram?  About 15 carries and 2 catches, once again.

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11 minutes ago, humpback said:

Not sure what it is, but there must be some reason why coaches refuse to make him a true workhorse. It's a shame, he would be a top 5 FF RB IMO if they'd just feed him.

Perhaps it's his age?  But then again, is he really that far off from being a "true workhorse" in today's NFL?  He is on pace for 256 touches (16 per game).  Last year, only 5 RB's averaged over 18 touches (Elliott, Barkley, CMC, Gurley, and DJ).

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54 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Another week of "disappointing" touches?  He had 15 carries, less than 1 carry over his 14.1 average.  He had 2 catches, less than 1 catch over his 1.7 average.  He had 60% of the RB carries, only 1% more than his average. I would say his night couldn't have been much closer to his average.  Oh, and he moved up from RB14 to RB12 in PPR, and without scoring a TD.  He is now a RB1, even in PPR.

Next week he faces CIN, and BAL will be running wild.  What do I expect from Ingram?  About 15 carries and 2 catches, once again.

Once again, if you simply go by his fantasy production last night, it isn't disappointing. However, if you consider the full picture, IMO it's another very disappointing game. The Ravens had the lead from start to finish, the offense put up 30 points and they had 3 rushing TDs as a team. He lost a LOT of goal line snaps to the other RBs. Zero receptions until their last (real) possession of the game. Constantly coming off the field after 1 or 2 plays. Etc, etc, etc.

He was THE #1 RB after 3 weeks, and now he's barely hanging on as a low end RB 1 (if that)- he's .4 points ahead of Conner who missed a game and 3.5 ahead of DJ who has missed several. He is 17th in carries despite having a higher ypc than all but 2 guys with more than him and being on the #2 rushing team in attempts and #1 in production in the NFL. He's 45th in targets despite being an excellent pass catcher.

You may not realize it but you're making my point every time you post these "averages"- his should be much higher, that's the whole point.

Edited by humpback
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3 hours ago, humpback said:

Once again, if you simply go by his fantasy production last night, it isn't disappointing. However, if you consider the full picture, IMO it's another very disappointing game. The Ravens had the lead from start to finish, the offense put up 30 points and they had 3 rushing TDs as a team. He lost a LOT of goal line snaps to the other RBs. Zero receptions until their last (real) possession of the game. Constantly coming off the field after 1 or 2 plays. Etc, etc, etc.

He was THE #1 RB after 3 weeks, and now he's barely hanging on as a low end RB 1 (if that)- he's .4 points ahead of Conner who missed a game and 3.5 ahead of DJ who has missed several. He is 17th in carries despite having a higher ypc than all but 2 guys with more than him and being on the #2 rushing team in attempts and #1 in production in the NFL. He's 45th in targets despite being an excellent pass catcher.

You may not realize it but you're making my point every time you post these "averages"- his should be much higher, that's the whole point.

I am not sure I understand your argument or agree you are looking at things as a whole... 

Ingram was taken on average 8th round (8.10 ADP if I recall)...  prior to his signing in Balt.  He is performaning as a Top 12 RB (#11 in PPR format) and only 1 RB drafted after him is doing better (Ekeler - primarily due to Melvin Gordon holdout/situation).  

What more could you ask for in a late round RB pick?  

When you see names like Gurley & Bell well below him on fantasy value YTD, what's not to like? 

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2 hours ago, humpback said:

Once again, if you simply go by his fantasy production last night, it isn't disappointing. However, if you consider the full picture, IMO it's another very disappointing game. The Ravens had the lead from start to finish, the offense put up 30 points and they had 3 rushing TDs as a team. He lost a LOT of goal line snaps to the other RBs. Zero receptions until their last (real) possession of the game. Constantly coming off the field after 1 or 2 plays. Etc, etc, etc.  Very disappointed with 17 touches and 144 total yards?  Greedy much?  Let's see all the RB's with those numbers this week - CMC (27/166), Drake (19/162), and Hyde (19/160) - that's it.  You said he was TD dependent, yet he put up 16.40 FP without a TD.  Does this guy have to log 20+ touches and a TD every week before you stop calling him disappointing?  It seems you are just waiting for him to fall off a cliff, but 8 games into the season, and he is still a RB1.  Let's not forget he was drafted as a low-end RB2 in redraft, and I guarantee at his age, he was considered even lower in dynasty.  If he had the exact same stats to date, yet played for the pass-happy Falcons, would that change how you feel about him?  His 114 rushes would count for 90% of the Falcons RB carries, making him a true workhorse, right?

He was THE #1 RB after 3 weeks, and now he's barely hanging on as a low end RB 1 (if that)- he's .4 points ahead of Conner who missed a game and 3.5 ahead of DJ who has missed several. He is 17th in carries despite having a higher ypc than all but 2 guys with more than him and being on the #2 rushing team in attempts and #1 in production in the NFL. He's 45th in targets despite being an excellent pass catcher.  What do you mean when you say "if that"?  He is a RB1 in any scoring format - plain and simple.  Yes, he IS ahead of Conner and DJ, both of which are hurting their respective fantasy teams with their missed games.  He has outscored Conner in 5 of 9 games, and has outscored DJ in 4 of 7 games (tied in week 1, both zero during Ingram's bye).  And, as you said, he is ahead of both for the season, while both were drafted way higher, or have way higher value in dynasty.  Let's not forget, Ingram is healthy, and has had his bye already.  Conner & DJ are still both hurt, and DJ still has a bye.  Who cares if he is 17th in carries & 45th in targets, as long as he is 12th in fantasy points?  Does anyone care that Derrick Henry has only 11 catches, but is currently RB8?

You may not realize it but you're making my point every time you post these "averages"- his should be much higher, that's the whole point.  No.  The whole point is we are talking about Mark Friggin Ingram!  He wasn't supposed to be a RB1 after week 9, but he is.  I know you are just waiting for him to slide down the rankings so you can come back and say I told you so, but you're gonna have to wait at least another week for that.

 

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I'm not going to quote the whole thing again because it's a waste of time to keep repeating the same things over and over.

You conveniently flip back and forth between touches and fantasy production when you think it helps your "argument", but he actually put up 14.4 points because he fumbled, which was good for RB 19 on the week (likely to be 20th or 21st after tonight). When your offense puts up 30 points and rushes for 3 TDs, yes, I consider that disappointing out of the starting RB.

Is this a trick question? People don't care that Henry only has 11 catches because that's actually on pace to be a career high, two of those receptions were TDs, AND he has 164 carries. Do you think I'd be "disappointed" if Ingram was on pace to smash career highs in all of those categories like Henry is?

Not sure how else to say it- he's putting up decent fantasy numbers, but the potential is there for so much more if they utilized him like many other teams use their #1 RB. I'm not calling him disappointing in the least, it's the relative (lack of) utilization that I'm disappointed in. Let's just agree to disagree. :shrug:

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18 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

I am not sure I understand your argument or agree you are looking at things as a whole... 

Ingram was taken on average 8th round (8.10 ADP if I recall)...  prior to his signing in Balt.  He is performaning as a Top 12 RB (#11 in PPR format) and only 1 RB drafted after him is doing better (Ekeler - primarily due to Melvin Gordon holdout/situation).  

What more could you ask for in a late round RB pick?  

When you see names like Gurley & Bell well below him on fantasy value YTD, what's not to like? 

To be fair, his ADP right before the start of the season was 4.03 (I just checked FFCalc).  The problem is, @humpback is acting like he was a late first/early second.  And if he is talking about dynasty, his age alone puts him much lower.  As an Ingram owner, I kind of understand Hump's frustration, but only in terms of catches.  I think he is way off base in terms of carries.  He is on pace to equal the most in his NFL career, and his weekly carries have been very consistent.  So consistent, in fact, that his weekly lowest of 12 is matched by only CMC, Cook, Zeke, Chubb, Henry, and Carson, all of which are 4-6 years younger.  No one is complaining about his rushing TD's, as only 3 RB's have more (CMC, Cook, Jones).  Ingram is a very good receiver, and it would be nice to see him with about 48 for the season.  3 per game isn't asking alot, but he is currently on pace for only 28.

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1 minute ago, TheWinz said:

To be fair, his ADP right before the start of the season was 4.03 (I just checked FFCalc).  The problem is, @humpback is acting like he was a late first/early second.  And if he is talking about dynasty, his age alone puts him much lower.  As an Ingram owner, I kind of understand Hump's frustration, but only in terms of catches.  I think he is way off base in terms of carries.  He is on pace to equal the most in his NFL career, and his weekly carries have been very consistent.  So consistent, in fact, that his weekly lowest of 12 is matched by only CMC, Cook, Zeke, Chubb, Henry, and Carson, all of which are 4-6 years younger.  No one is complaining about his rushing TD's, as only 3 RB's have more (CMC, Cook, Jones).  Ingram is a very good receiver, and it would be nice to see him with about 48 for the season.  3 per game isn't asking alot, but he is currently on pace for only 28.

Good point, but from a Dynasty perspective, who would pay that price?  I agree he is "over achieving" his ADP and since I got him in Feb, I am thrilled! 

And all the players you reference are being taken Top 2 rounds compared to Ingram.  This is a clear "excellent value for the investment"!  

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9 minutes ago, humpback said:

I'm not going to quote the whole thing again because it's a waste of time to keep repeating the same things over and over.

You conveniently flip back and forth between touches and fantasy production when you think it helps your "argument", but he actually put up 14.4 points because he fumbled, which was good for RB 19 on the week (likely to be 20th or 21st after tonight). When your offense puts up 30 points and rushes for 3 TDs, yes, I consider that disappointing out of the starting RB.  Talk about cherry picking!  Of those 3 TD's, 2 were by Lamar, and the other was the play after he rumbled for 53 yards, then fumbled.

Is this a trick question? People don't care that Henry only has 11 catches because that's actually on pace to be a career high, two of those receptions were TDs, AND he has 164 carries. Do you think I'd be "disappointed" if Ingram was on pace to smash career highs in all of those categories like Henry is?  Would anyone be disappointed if a RB smashed career highs in every category?

Not sure how else to say it- he's putting up decent fantasy numbers, but the potential is there for so much more if they utilized him like many other teams use their #1 RB. I'm not calling him disappointing in the least, it's the relative (lack of) utilization that I'm disappointed in. Let's just agree to disagree. :shrug:  I don't want to agree - I must break you!  Just kidding.  Lack of carries - disagree.  Lack of catches - agree.  All the rest is just fluff.

 

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Mark Ingram rushed nine times for 34 yards and one touchdown in the Ravens' Week 10 win over the Bengals.

Ingram only seeing nine carries was disappointing since the Ravens scored 49 points, but Lamar Jackson was too explosive for Ingram to get going. In fact, Baltimore only ran 46 offensive plays because they averaged 8.2 yards as a unit. Ingram should see more than nine carries next week as the clear-cut No. 1 running back for the Ravens. He'll be an RB2 against the Texans.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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17 minutes ago, humpback said:

Like I was saying....

Right there with ya. Should be a work horse behind that top 5 OL.

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3 hours ago, lod001 said:

Right there with ya. Should be a work horse behind that top 5 OL.

It's ridiculous. Doesn't touch the ball on the opening drive of the game, and they pulled him at the goal line for Edwards.

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18 hours ago, humpback said:

It's ridiculous. Doesn't touch the ball on the opening drive of the game, and they pulled him at the goal line for Edwards.

Pretty sure a trend is starting where as long as you are winning, your main guys are not going to play as much until near playoffs. When you play a bottom feeder, you let the backups do the work because you are going to easily beat them This was an easy win so I can see where they let the backup RB do the work. Going to suck for the RB position if this catches on.

Not sure if the Rams are doing the same but they are in trouble if they are because they are losing and Gurley is paid a ton to do nothing.

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18 hours ago, lod001 said:

Pretty sure a trend is starting where as long as you are winning, your main guys are not going to play as much until near playoffs. When you play a bottom feeder, you let the backups do the work because you are going to easily beat them This was an easy win so I can see where they let the backup RB do the work. Going to suck for the RB position if this catches on.

Not sure if the Rams are doing the same but they are in trouble if they are because they are losing and Gurley is paid a ton to do nothing.

I could see that, but that doesn't really mesh with letting Lamar play (and run) in these games at the same time. This particular game was strange, they had a bunch of chunk plays and a couple of defensive scores so they didn't run many plays on offense (including the back ups). However, on the very first drive of the game, they get down to the goal line almost immediately and Edwards comes in for Ingram, who didn't touch the ball on the drive so it's not like he was winded. I know it's easy to think the game should be a cakewalk, but I don't think most NFL teams think that way and "rest" their starters, particularly on the very first drive of the game.

On paper this is a dream scenario to put up a top 5 RB season but they just won't let him. Frustrating.

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Mark Ingram rushed 13 times for 48 yards in the Ravens' Week 11 win over the Texans, adding three receptions for 37 additional yards and two touchdowns.

Ingram's four targets matched his season high, which tells you all you need to know about his involvement in the passing game. The receiving scores were his first of the year. Ingram was left all alone on the first, a 25-yarder on a coverage bust. For the second, a 12-yarder, Ingram found the sideline and ducked under a tackle before extending for the plane. He's now up to 10 total scores through 10 games. Week 12 road opponent Los Angeles (Rams) has been tough on the ground.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Mark Ingram rushed 15 times for 111 yards and one touchdown in the Ravens' 45-6, Week 12 win over the Rams Monday night, adding a seven-yard touchdown catch.

The Ravens rushed for 285 yards as a team. This is the best team in the NFL, and it may not be all that close right now. We should get a good look at how close the Niners are to the Ravens when these teams square off next week in Baltimore. Ingram now has 12 touchdowns on the year and four 100-yard rushing games. San Francisco will present a stiff Week 13 test, but Ingram has evolved into a fade-matchup RB1 every week in this potent rushing attack.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Mark Ingram rushed 15 times for 50 yards in the Ravens' Week 14 win over the bills, adding three receptions for 29 additional yards.

Ingram has now been held out of the end zone in back-to-back weeks, which is a big problem for him in fantasy because of his modest yardage totals. Ingram has reached 100 yards from scrimmage just twice since September. Week 15 opponent New York (Jets) is pass funnel, trying to stamp out the run while leaving the airways open. Ingram will be in the RB15-20 range for the second week of the fantasy playoffs.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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No surprise to read that Lamar will get pulled early tonight if the game is in hand. Anybody worried about a reduced role for Ingram?

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7 minutes ago, wormburner said:

No surprise to read that Lamar will get pulled early tonight if the game is in hand. Anybody worried about a reduced role for Ingram?

If the game is hand enough to bench Lamar...then that would mean Ingram would have gotten his by then as well, no?

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Mark Ingram rushed 13 times for 76 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens' Week 15 win over the Jets, adding a 10-yard touchdown reception.

The rushing yards were Ingram's most in four games, as were the 86 yards from scrimmage. He could have had a second rushing touchdown but could not cash in a goal-line carry. He found the edge on the one he did. After a pair of somewhat plodding performances, Ingram ran over a defense that entered the evening with the league's lowest YPC against. There was a scary moment late where Ingram plowed into a Gatorade cooler on the sideline. He was visibly upset but was not announced with an injury. Either way, he has 10 days to heal up for what could be his final appearance of the regular season, a Week 16 road trip to Cleveland. He will remain a mid-range RB2 for that one.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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1 hour ago, Brandon Will said:

Seeing Mitch Trubisky was on the bench for Wentz and ruined my playoff run in my 20 teamer...

Is Ingram a solid option yet again for 2020?

Way too early to tell.  Gotta wait until at least after the draft.

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11 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Way too early to tell.  Gotta wait until at least after the draft.

I'd say nothing changes as long as that OL stays in tact. It's crazy good. He signed a 3 year deal and with what he's doing he is getting ripped off again for the #s he's putting up. If they win it all I guess the only concern is if he wants a renegotiation & holds out but I don't think that happens. I'm thinking of trying to get pick #4 in dynasty for him if I can.

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On 12/1/2019 at 1:09 PM, humpback said:

Coulda/shoulda/woulda been a league-winner this year.  :kicksrock:

He’s been great for me in my dynasty league this year, and just started my week 15 game with 23.6 points. 
:shrug:

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2 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Way too early to tell.  Gotta wait until at least after the draft.

Not even sure the draft makes a difference. I mean, sure if the Ravens draft a back its a big sign, but they’ve got Gus who’s been a wrecking ball, and Justice Hill. I could see them going with Gus/Justice and letting Ingram walk, depending on MI’s contract. 

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22 hours ago, PhantomJB said:

If the game is hand enough to bench Lamar...then that would mean Ingram would have gotten his by then as well, no?

That’s exactly how it worked out, but it seems the Ravens have a broader definition of “in hand” since they waited until they were up 3 or 4 scores with like 8 mins left. ;) 

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21 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s exactly how it worked out, but it seems the Ravens have a broader definition of “in hand” since they waited until they were up 3 or 4 scores with like 8 mins left. ;) 

No kidding. Harbaugh with a page out of Belichick's book to the cheers of Ingram owners worldwide.

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3 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Way too early to tell.  Gotta wait until at least after the draft.

exactly. mocks mean nothing, but many of the good ones are based off inside info and scout talk. Seen Baltimore as a landing spot for a round 1 or 2 back. They wouldnt draft someone and then not use them. They aren't Seattle

 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Not even sure the draft makes a difference. I mean, sure if the Ravens draft a back its a big sign, but they’ve got Gus who’s been a wrecking ball, and Justice Hill. I could see them going with Gus/Justice and letting Ingram walk, depending on MI’s contract. 

That's what I mean though - there's so many good backs coming out this draft a guy may fall to the later rounds who the ravens have high on their board.

With a team running as often as the ravens do then picking up more options out of the backfield is always going to be in play.

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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

He’s been great for me in my dynasty league this year, and just started my week 15 game with 23.6 points. 
:shrug:

Glad you survived his last two duds, but now imagine they gave him as many touches as most teams give their starting RB.

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21 minutes ago, humpback said:

Glad you survived his last two duds, but now imagine they gave him as many touches as most teams give their starting RB.

Let’s get a petition going to ask them to stop running Lamar. :lol: 

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4 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Not even sure the draft makes a difference. I mean, sure if the Ravens draft a back its a big sign, but they’ve got Gus who’s been a wrecking ball, and Justice Hill. I could see them going with Gus/Justice and letting Ingram walk, depending on MI’s contract. 

I don't see any way letting him walk is in their plans right now, his production is way outpacing his price tag, plus they wouldn't be treating him with kid gloves if they planned on moving on next year.

1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Let’s get a petition going to ask them to stop running Lamar. :lol: 

That might help, but they run so often there is plenty to go around. The bigger problem is that they don't even give him a huge percentage of the RB carries and they barely involve him in the passing game. With the way he and this offense have dominated he should easily be averaging 2-4 more carries and 1-2 more receptions per game.

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41 minutes ago, humpback said:

I don't see any way letting him walk is in their plans right now, his production is way outpacing his price tag, plus they wouldn't be treating him with kid gloves if they planned on moving on next year.

 

They can't "let him walk" as he is under contract for 2 more seasons... 

Gus and Hill arent anything special. Great backups. Baltimore is perfect for a rookie RB to keep things cheap in their winning window

Ingram is a great sell this offseason 

Edited by IROK

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1 hour ago, humpback said:

The bigger problem is that they don't even give him a huge percentage of the RB carries and they barely involve him in the passing game. With the way he and this offense have dominated he should easily be averaging 2-4 more carries and 1-2 more receptions per game.

The even bigger problem is that they do a lot of QB RPO, and as evidenced last night, twice they had 1st & goal in the RZ & they went PA pass. One time it was from the 1 on a DPI.

those are the plays that drive one nuts as an ingram owner.  Normally there’s DPI in the end zone & it’s 80% lock for points for your RB. With the Ravens I’d say it’s a coin flip or worse. 
 

and like you said, it might be Gus at the stripe.
 

but he was solid this week - that’s what mattered for me. One week at a time. ;) 

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Ingram ain't going anywhere next year. That would make a lot of players on the team quite upset, including mainly Jackson. he could even play out his contract since he is getting ripped off financially by the Ravens.

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