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Apple (AAPL) : Tim Cook announces iForum. Dodds and Bryant prepare shut down operations (1 Viewer)

lod01 said:
Don't waste your time. This is dead money.
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You're vastly underestimating the effects of dividend growth if not possible buybacks.  I'd rather they jacked the dividend up rather than buy back stock, but there is likely to be both in the near future.

 
Shutout said:
I think where they really missed the ball was on the apple TV streaming box. They could have owned the market with their leverage power in the early days and that, by itself, would have compelled a lot of people to do what your and your wife (and me and mine) already did and that is invest heavily in the Apple ecosystem.  When you own the phones and the iPads and all MacBook, etc, and you can have those things mirroring and working together seamlessly, all they really had to do back in the day was pioneer the trail and half the world would own a small black streaming box or two.  

But for whatever reason they couldn't seem to find a sense of direction and partner up with the right folks.  Imagine, 4 years ago, having an Apple TV box with an exclusive deal to stream ESPN.  THe cable cutters by themselves (ourselves) would have shifted the needle.

The products are still top notch, great quality.  Stable...they work. They are great. But like most of you guys, I'm just at that point of my life where I'm done feeling like I need to shell out close to a thousand dollars every other year for two or more phones just so I can have "moving pictures" and processing speed + the nth nano-second.  At this point, my "phone" does everything I conceivably want it to. I certainly use it less as a telephone than anything else.  They are really going to have to wow me with some new tech feature to make me buy in anytime soon again.  NFC and fingerprint scans just don't cut it. I have a 6 and I don't see it going anywhere unless I break it.    
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Not surprisingly, I also own the new Apple TV. It's okay, nothing special. Really doesn't do anything Chromecast or the Fire TV Stick can't do. But I do agree that they really dropped the ball on it. It's nice to have if you're in the Apple ecosystem, but it's nothing earth shattering.

Apple definitely still makes good quality stuff. But if you already have it, there's no real need to keep upgrading anymore. I have the iPad Mini 2 and my wife has the iPad Mini 3. Only real difference is her's has TouchID and mine doesn't. Big deal. The other day she was looking to upgrade her 5S to the new SE (she likes the smaller phones). Outside of the camera being better and it having a faster processor, she just couldn't justify spending the money to upgrade at the moment when her 5S is still going strong. I'm sure more and more people are starting to feel this way.

 
Sand said:
You're vastly underestimating the effects of dividend growth if not possible buybacks.  I'd rather they jacked the dividend up rather than buy back stock, but there is likely to be both in the near future.
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Meh. Lots better places to put your $. You can come back to this later on and it will still be spinning it's wheels.

 
Outside of VR, which seems niche
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I don't think VR is niche if a company can make the device not look lame.  People didn't want a lot of devices until Apple made them cool to use.

 
cstu said:
I don't think VR is niche if a company can make the device not look lame.  People didn't want a lot of devices until Apple made them cool to use.
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As of right now, it'll be niche. Sure, if Apple can do something with it, maybe it'll be more widely accepted and used. I was messing around with the Samsung VR the other day at BestBuy. It was cool, but not something I could see myself spending the money on or using frequently.

 
Everyone knows they have tons of cash, but that's priced into the stock- if they can't do anything productive with it, it's essentially just a big savings account.  Besides, ~90% of it is kept overseas for tax purposes.

 
lod01 said:
Meh. Lots better places to put your $. You can come back to this later on and it will still be spinning it's wheels.
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I held JNJ from 09-12 (i.e. dead money) and just reinvested dividends.  Doing just fine now - JNJ has essentially led the market last couple years.  

My sell criteria start with whether I think something is in real trouble - AAPL isn't.  It looks to be pausing growth right now, but it is hugely profitable and valuation right now even for a slow growing company is just fine.  Past that I look at dividends, buybacks, cash per share (about 8% of the stock worth is pure cash), and my tax situation if I sell.  The last for this one does weigh heavily as my CG tax hit would be pretty huge (in at ~$17/share).

 
The Commish said:
Appears I was about 18-24 months off....underestimated the abilities to stretch Jobs' initial vision.  Time will tell where this goes.  6S wasn't met with the fervor expected but that was probably more about the 5 and it's quality than anything else.
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They barely hyped the 6s.  I can't really even put a finger on what month it was released. The last hype train for a refresh release I can remember was the 4s.  The flagship always draws the most attention, lines, and marketing.

ETA: From looking at sales and pure profit the 4s was the high water mark for the history of the iphone it would seem.

 
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culdeus said:
They barely hyped the 6s.  I can't really even put a finger on what month it was released. The last hype train for a refresh release I can remember was the 4s.  The flagship always draws the most attention, lines, and marketing.
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There will be a lot of hype around the 7.  Apple is good at that.  Everybody will be looking at the sales numbers though.

It will definitely be interesting to see if Apple can keep sales up along with their traditional premium pricing.

 
culdeus said:
The Commish said:
Appears I was about 18-24 months off....underestimated the abilities to stretch Jobs' initial vision.  Time will tell where this goes.  6S wasn't met with the fervor expected but that was probably more about the 5 and it's quality than anything else.
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They barely hyped the 6s.  I can't really even put a finger on what month it was released. The last hype train for a refresh release I can remember was the 4s.  The flagship always draws the most attention, lines, and marketing.
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People are beginning to see that these "upgrades" aren't really huge jumps anymore.  It'd be silly to try and convince them otherwise via advertising.  Seems like a waste of money.

 
The Commish said:
People are beginning to see that these "upgrades" aren't really huge jumps anymore.  It'd be silly to try and convince them otherwise via advertising.  Seems like a waste of money.
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I don't think they have a choice.  Apple is considered a premium brand.  If they are stuck on the innovation front they can probably hype their way through at least one off cycle.

 
The Commish said:
People are beginning to see that these "upgrades" aren't really huge jumps anymore.  It'd be silly to try and convince them otherwise via advertising.  Seems like a waste of money.
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There will be a lot of attention (me included) on the wow factor of the next round.  If they seem to be stuck then we may have to start considering that they've lost the touch.

 
Back when the phone companies were still subsidizing, I would upgrade for no other reason than that it was essentially a free new phone.   I'd pay my $200, sell my old phone for more than that probably to someone that broke there's and I've have the latest phone.   Sure it was nice to have the newest model with all the latest features, but even if it was the exact same phone, I'd do it just b/c it didn't cost me anything.   I had no idea that providers got rid of contracts.  I was due for an upgrade later this year.  I just read an article on it and I can't make sense out of any of it.

 
Still think, and have for some time that the wall of icons have to go.  You can't really change the hardware between cycles that much, but the interface hasn't changed in the better part of a decade.  That would drive upgrades.  

 
What are they doing with all that cash? Facebook isn't really "innovating", but they bought innovative companies like Oculus, Instagram and WhatApp to grow for the future. Apple can almost buy any company they want. 

 
Big apple product fan to me the upgrades of phones are only really neccesary when they change the number, example if you have the 5 you aren't getting the 5S and if you have the 5S you are just waiting for the 6S.

That's a new phone every 2 years or there about me IIRC and in my experience that's when the phone starts being a little slower and battery starts being a bit crappier. Also happens to be when my carrier would subsidize the new phone purchase, sell the old phone for good money (Apple products resell at good price).

Has been the perfect setup for me since the first iPhone. Keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. Have heard rumblings that the carriers will stop subsidizing soon. 

Apple has lost a bit as they have turned into a behemoth but they still put out the best phones and laptops for what I use them for and its not even close.

 
The Commish said:
People are beginning to see that these "upgrades" aren't really huge jumps anymore.  It'd be silly to try and convince them otherwise via advertising.  Seems like a waste of money.
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I agree with you but I do think they DO try. 

The 6S commercials are laughable where they say "we didn't do much...except EVERYTHING!!!!!" but then you look at what has really changed and the answer is a new O.s (which we would have gotten anyway), "moving pictures".  Oh my!  This concept is worth buying a phone for, although in my day, I pretty much just called moving pictures "sifting through my burst shots or...video with a freaking pause button".  A faster processor.  That means something...until it doesn't.  They have reached the area of marginal returns.  A bump in a processor or camera used to be a big deal but they simply can't improve it enough to mean anything at this point.

 
tommyGunZ said:
$35B more in share buybacks announced, so I'm guessing the folks in finance at AAPL this am are hammering away.  

No surprise that the tailwinds on the 6s have been light. I suspect the 7 upgrade this fall will be another runaway success.  
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I have trouble seeing a phone be a runaway success in the way we're used to without the carrier subsidies. 

 
NutterButter said:
Back when the phone companies were still subsidizing, I would upgrade for no other reason than that it was essentially a free new phone.   I'd pay my $200, sell my old phone for more than that probably to someone that broke there's and I've have the latest phone.   Sure it was nice to have the newest model with all the latest features, but even if it was the exact same phone, I'd do it just b/c it didn't cost me anything.   I had no idea that providers got rid of contracts.  I was due for an upgrade later this year.  I just read an article on it and I can't make sense out of any of it.
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Yup, I was about to upgrade my family's iPhones until I saw that our carrier had dropped the subsidies. It basically tripled the cost of upgrading the phone. We'll be carrying ours until they break now. 

 
jonessed said:
There will be a lot of hype around the 7.  Apple is good at that.  Everybody will be looking at the sales numbers though.

It will definitely be interesting to see if Apple can keep sales up along with their traditional premium pricing.
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Apple's premium pricing position isn't going anywhere. If they a bit of market share, they're not going to lose sleep over it. The company has been experiencing staggering growth for some time now.. it's slowing. That's to be expected. The primary driver of growth over the last couple cycles has been emerging markets (asia). 

Apple isn't going anywhere. It's not like they're either growing at double digit clip, or they're going the way of Nokia. :)

 
[icon] said:
Apple's premium pricing position isn't going anywhere. If they a bit of market share, they're not going to lose sleep over it. The company has been experiencing staggering growth for some time now.. it's slowing. That's to be expected. The primary driver of growth over the last couple cycles has been emerging markets (asia). 

Apple isn't going anywhere. It's not like they're either growing at double digit clip, or they're going the way of Nokia. :)
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I don't think anyone is talking about Apple failing.  It's more about losing market share, stagnating, becoming a commodity, etc.

Their stock price is dependent on innovation.  That's their history.

 
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The question you should ask yourself, what would the Iphone 7 have to have to prompt you to drop 4 to 700 dollars over whatever iphone you have now?

I would say there's nothing out there that would cause people to move.  The carrier subsidy is a huge issue, it's been the elephant in the room for a long time.

 
culdeus said:
Still think, and have for some time that the wall of icons have to go.  You can't really change the hardware between cycles that much, but the interface hasn't changed in the better part of a decade.  That would drive upgrades.  
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But if it works?  What interface would drive people in droves to think "this is better, cleaner, greater?" 

If anything, it could push people away.  The entire screen industry seems to have found a format that works. From Netflix to Kodi to Roku to Apple, everyone has a "multi-button icon on a screen at-a-glance" type interface.  It just makes a lot of sense.

The true issue we face now is that the technology simply isn't able to advance fast enough for us to make us think we have to have it.

 
Apparently, at least for verizon, they lowered the smartphone access fee from $40/month to $20/month at least for some plans.   If that's the case combined that with the $200 you'd spend normally under contract and you're getting close to an iphone.   Take that and add the ability to pay off the phone in monthly installments which should be really appealing to young people that have no money sense.  Maybe it won't be that big of a deal.   I'm still unsure about that access fee though.   The wife pays the cellphone bill so I know nothing about any of this.  Typical corporate america obfuscation that makes my brain bleed.

 
culdeus said:
The question you should ask yourself, what would the Iphone 7 have to have to prompt you to drop 4 to 700 dollars over whatever iphone you have now?

I would say there's nothing out there that would cause people to move.  The carrier subsidy is a huge issue, it's been the elephant in the room for a long time.
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No doubt that all carriers/manufacturers are dealing with iterative product innovation and the shifting economics of phone purchasing. This is definitely not just an Apple issue. 

I love my iPhone 6... I don't plan on upgrading anytime soon. The force touch feature would be neat but not worth an upgrade to me. Hardware performance on this phone is phenomenal. I'm a true power user, killing my phone battery and life-proof power case daily, doing heavy lifting (lots of FTP use, video processing/editing... etc), and the interface is very snappy. 

For me.. I'll consider upgrading what that isn't the case, or when battery life doubles from the current spec. 

 
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culdeus said:
The question you should ask yourself, what would the Iphone 7 have to have to prompt you to drop 4 to 700 dollars over whatever iphone you have now?

I would say there's nothing out there that would cause people to move.  The carrier subsidy is a huge issue, it's been the elephant in the room for a long time.
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Good question.

I really don't know know what they would have to build into it. 

 
culdeus said:
The question you should ask yourself, what would the Iphone 7 have to have to prompt you to drop 4 to 700 dollars over whatever iphone you have now?

I would say there's nothing out there that would cause people to move.  The carrier subsidy is a huge issue, it's been the elephant in the room for a long time.
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The subsidy.  If I can upgrade for $100 then there is really no reason not to unless I plan on changing carriers.  It's a no-brainer.

I think this was new with the 6 though.  Prior to that size was a factor (both thickness and screen size).  I don't need nor want a thinner phone or larger screen anymore.

 
culdeus said:
The question you should ask yourself, what would the Iphone 7 have to have to prompt you to drop 4 to 700 dollars over whatever iphone you have now?

I would say there's nothing out there that would cause people to move.  The carrier subsidy is a huge issue, it's been the elephant in the room for a long time.
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Honestly, there isn't much more I need my phone to do at this point. Better battery life is always nice, but outside of that, I'm content with my iPhone 6.

From the sounds of it, the 7 isn't going to be anything ground breaking. Thinner (shocker), possibly removing the headphone jack, screen that goes all the way to the edges, and I'm sure a better camera and processor. None of that seems worth spending another $400+ (after I sell my current phone) for.

I do agree with whoever said they could improve the UI of iOS. As a former Android user (and I know this is cliché), but it was nice being able to fully customize my phone's look. If I didn't want to see an app on my screen, it was in the app drawer. I could organize the apps however I wanted to. On iOS, there really isn't any of that. Everyone's phone looks the same minus the wallpaper. Let people have the ability to organize their homescreens in  a way the fits their needs, not how Apple thinks we should.

 
MattFancy said:
Honestly, there isn't much more I need my phone to do at this point. Better battery life is always nice, but outside of that, I'm content with my iPhone 6.

From the sounds of it, the 7 isn't going to be anything ground breaking. Thinner (shocker), possibly removing the headphone jack, screen that goes all the way to the edges, and I'm sure a better camera and processor. None of that seems worth spending another $400+ (after I sell my current phone) for.

I do agree with whoever said they could improve the UI of iOS. As a former Android user (and I know this is cliché), but it was nice being able to fully customize my phone's look. If I didn't want to see an app on my screen, it was in the app drawer. I could organize the apps however I wanted to. On iOS, there really isn't any of that. Everyone's phone looks the same minus the wallpaper. Let people have the ability to organize their homescreens in  a way the fits their needs, not how Apple thinks we should.
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Maybe toss wireless charging into that mix.  More than likely within the next year (maybe not in time for the 7), I am betting there is going to major waves and pub for "security" of the iPhone. 

But yeah, tech is a funny thing. We seldom can think of what we would possibly want more but then it comes along and we are like "how did I ever live without that?"  But it is kind of different now.  Growing up, I could visualize having a device that was "star Trek"-like and I could imagine having a device I simply talked to and it spoke back with intelligence.  But right now, I can't think of a thing they can pack into a phone that would make me say "it's about damned time."

ETA: update. I did just think of something. If they release a phone which can broadcast the screen into the air via hologram then "shut up and take my money".  Other than that, I may have crossed over to the "look at the old dude with the ancient phone" category.

 
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Shutout said:
Maybe toss wireless charging into that mix.  More than likely within the next year (maybe not in time for the 7), I am betting there is going to major waves and pub for "security" of the iPhone. 

But yeah, tech is a funny thing. We seldom can think of what we would possibly want more but then it comes along and we are like "how did I ever live without that?"  But it is kind of different now.  Growing up, I could visualize having a device that was "star Trek"-like and I could imagine having a device I simply talked to and it spoke back with intelligence.  But right now, I can't think of a thing they can pack into a phone that would make me say "it's about damned time."

ETA: update. I did just think of something. If they release a phone which can broadcast the screen into the air via hologram then "shut up and take my money".  Other than that, I may have crossed over to the "look at the old dude with the ancient phone" category.
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Eh, wireless charging doesn't do much for me. So you're phone isn't plugged into a wall, instead it's just sitting on a charging puck? I guess it helps the phone charge a bit faster, but I don't think it's something that would make me get rid of my current phone. Doubling battery life without having a bulkier phone? That would be better than wireless charging, IMO.

Outside of making phones faster, thinner, better camera, more efficient, etc. I don't know what else the phone manufacturers can do at this point. These smartphones are all well made and do just about everything I can think of. I agree, outside of a hologram popping out like in Star Wars, there's not much else I would want.

 
MattFancy said:
Eh, wireless charging doesn't do much for me. So you're phone isn't plugged into a wall, instead it's just sitting on a charging puck? I guess it helps the phone charge a bit faster, but I don't think it's something that would make me get rid of my current phone. Doubling battery life without having a bulkier phone? That would be better than wireless charging, IMO.

Outside of making phones faster, thinner, better camera, more efficient, etc. I don't know what else the phone manufacturers can do at this point. These smartphones are all well made and do just about everything I can think of. I agree, outside of a hologram popping out like in Star Wars, there's not much else I would want.
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Yeah, wireless charging just feels gimmicky to me. :shrug:

Now make true wireless charging where I don't have to get it on a puck and I'll be more interested.  It would be pretty cool to just be in the room with the charger and it's charging my phone while its in my hand, pocket, etc.

 
jonessed said:
I don't think anyone is talking about Apple failing.  It's more about losing market share, stagnating, becoming a commodity, etc.
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And yet when you look at their valuation it's staggering.  Regulated utilities (DUK, SO) have a P/E of ~20.  JNJ = 21.  PG = 27(!).  CL=45(!!).  AAPL has a PE= 10.5 right now.  

So right now the market is pricing the growth potential of regulated utilities as about double of that of Apple.  Madness.

( I ignored Amazon at 485 - though if the market put that evaluation on Apple I'd be able to retire).

 
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Ned said:
Yeah, wireless charging just feels gimmicky to me. :shrug:

Now make true wireless charging where I don't have to get it on a puck and I'll be more interested.  It would be pretty cool to just be in the room with the charger and it's charging my phone while its in my hand, pocket, etc.
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Now that would be something! Like charges through Bluetooth or something? No idea if that's possible, but that would be pretty cool.

 
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St. Louis Bob said:
Apple Pay and Apple Watch are going to be huge. iPhone 7 is rumored to be a game changer. 
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Isn't every Apple product a "game changer" at launch? Apple Pay is nice, but not enough places use it, so until that changes, I don't see it growing. Apple Watch is okay. Sounds like the new one will have cellular connectivity. Cool, but then you'll need to probably pay for data for it from your carrier and it will eat up the battery even faster. I've seen a handful of people out and about with an Apple Watch.

 
MattFancy said:
Isn't every Apple product a "game changer" at launch? Apple Pay is nice, but not enough places use it, so until that changes, I don't see it growing. Apple Watch is okay. Sounds like the new one will have cellular connectivity. Cool, but then you'll need to probably pay for data for it from your carrier and it will eat up the battery even faster. I've seen a handful of people out and about with an Apple Watch.
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If you have a "family plan" where you just share data across devices, you probably just need to pay the connectivity fee which i think is 5 bucks a month for verizon

 
MattFancy said:
Isn't every Apple product a "game changer" at launch? Apple Pay is nice, but not enough places use it, so until that changes, I don't see it growing. Apple Watch is okay. Sounds like the new one will have cellular connectivity. Cool, but then you'll need to probably pay for data for it from your carrier and it will eat up the battery even faster. I've seen a handful of people out and about with an Apple Watch.
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They just launched in China 2 months ago which isn't an easy task.  Currently 300 million people use mobile pay and the number is growing.

They sold 2x as many of the first generation iWatches as they did first generation iPhones.  Lots of room for improvements and upgrades.

 
Wireless charging would be handy.... though I think I'd rather have battery filing whatever space is required by said charging hardware.  Of course, with the latest round of phones we get neither.. just a thinner phone. 

 
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[icon] said:
Wireless charging would be handy.... though I think I'd rather have battery filing whatever space is required by said charging hardware.  Of course, with the latest round of phones we get neither.. just a thinner phone. 
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Very true, although battery replacability would help offset that.  Things like charger/headphone ports wearing out is a big part of forced upgrading in any device.  Very annoying to me when that stuff happens.  Hopefully Apple doesn't go the way of nerfing their ports a la Windows laptops OEMs.

It will be interesting to see how Apple deals with its phone line in a world with less carrier subsidizes. 

 
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