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Shane Vereen (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter chinawildman
- Start date
Hoss Style
Footballguy
Tried to move him well before this. Of course this is what I wanted. He did well tonight, but I'll need to see his use consistently before I feel safe.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I think the mind games BB and company try to play with the opposing defenses is the biggest risk. I am firmly convinced that they get too cute to such an extreme that they misuse the talent on the roster at times.Run It Up said:
It isn't like he just got healthy or something. He's been capable of this all season(s) long.
It would not surprise me at all to see them use Vereen as a decoy all next week precisely because he blew up this week.
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Warpig
Footballguy
This is an exciting time for us Vereen owners, and I'm not selling unless I can pull off a fleece like this:
The offense looks good, the other RBs look ordinary, and Vereen appears to be 100%. The 49 yard TD catch was blown coverage, but Vereen still made a very nice diving catch that you only expect out of an elite receiving back.Workhorse said:
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Absolutely. I'm quite prepared to be burned by Vereen (again) at some point moving forward because of game state. NE only dialed up 14 rushes vs. NYJ because it was an actual game; they average 27 per game. There will be games where game flow dictates that Vereen doesn't see 8 targets in the passing game and that they run it closer to their average. That's when we'll see more of Gray. This is why I believe Vereen may be a good sell high, there may be people naive enough to believe what we witnessed last night will be the norm moving forward.humpback said:
tombonneau
Footballguy
I started Oliver over him as well and would do it again. It was the right call. It's great Vereen looked awesome, but I'm a Pats homer, and I honestly don't think much will change with his usage. He has 2-3 games like this a year and this was one of them. Gray/Bolden will be Ridley and Vereen will continue to be Vereen.
I very much feel he's a sell high. Like someone earlier said, if you can find an owner desperate at RB let him convince himself that with Ridley hurt Vereen is a monster RB1 on a great O with a bad D, I'd SELL SELL SELL. Vereen will continue to be a solid flex, no more, no less.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
And the NYJ have a very good run D and a very poor pass D and just like BB does he exploited the weakness to the max and he minimized the other team's strength. We have seen before where the Pats can feature the run game one week then the pass game another. But I do think this looks good for Vereen long term, this is basically the usage in the pass game he was getting last year and his just being in the game is a big difference. I think he's back.Absolutely. I'm quite prepared to be burned by Vereen (again) at some point moving forward because of game state. NE only dialed up 14 rushes vs. NYJ because it was an actual game; they average 27 per game. There will be games where game flow dictates that Vereen doesn't see 8 targets in the passing game and that they run it closer to their average. That's when we'll see more of Gray. This is why I believe Vereen may be a good sell high, there may be people naive enough to believe what we witnessed last night will be the norm moving forward.humpback said:
Run It Up
Footballguy
I'm talking about the carries here- Vereen had a season high for carries on a night where the team had a season low (11 out of 14 total from RBs). Obviously Ridley being out had something to do with that, and I don't know why you'd expect his carries to go down when they run the ball more.Absolutely. I'm quite prepared to be burned by Vereen (again) at some point moving forward because of game state. NE only dialed up 14 rushes vs. NYJ because it was an actual game; they average 27 per game. There will be games where game flow dictates that Vereen doesn't see 8 targets in the passing game and that they run it closer to their average. That's when we'll see more of Gray. This is why I believe Vereen may be a good sell high, there may be people naive enough to believe what we witnessed last night will be the norm moving forward.humpback said:
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Vereen has never exceed 14 carries in his career. Although he has looked ridiculous running the ball up the gut at times this year (he looked very good vs. CIN) I don't think BB is dumb enough to have him do it 15+ times a game even if game flow calls for such due to his injury history. I agree, the Ridley injury will boost Vereen's carries by some non-zero amount but it won't be significant enough to off set those games where he isn't targeted in the passing game like vs. MIN or BUF this year. Maybe it boosts his PPR floor by 2 points at best but when NE goes run heavy and Vereen doesn't get his receptions it will hurt you regardless.I'm talking about the carries here- Vereen had a season high for carries on a night where the team had a season low (11 out of 14 total from RBs). Obviously Ridley being out had something to do with that, and I don't know why you'd expect his carries to go down when they run the ball more.Absolutely. I'm quite prepared to be burned by Vereen (again) at some point moving forward because of game state. NE only dialed up 14 rushes vs. NYJ because it was an actual game; they average 27 per game. There will be games where game flow dictates that Vereen doesn't see 8 targets in the passing game and that they run it closer to their average. That's when we'll see more of Gray. This is why I believe Vereen may be a good sell high, there may be people naive enough to believe what we witnessed last night will be the norm moving forward.humpback said:
going forward, this year, Vereen will be running on relatively fresh legs...opposing Ds, not so much. Maybe BB stretches his usage out a bit...Vereen has never exceed 14 carries in his career. Although he has looked ridiculous running the ball up the gut at times this year (he looked very good vs. CIN) I don't think BB is dumb enough to have him do it 15+ times a game even if game flow calls for such due to his injury history. I agree, the Ridley injury will boost Vereen's carries by some non-zero amount but it won't be significant enough to off set those games where he isn't targeted in the passing game like vs. MIN or BUF this year. Maybe it boosts his PPR floor by 2 points at best but when NE goes run heavy and Vereen doesn't get his receptions it will hurt you regardless.I'm talking about the carries here- Vereen had a season high for carries on a night where the team had a season low (11 out of 14 total from RBs). Obviously Ridley being out had something to do with that, and I don't know why you'd expect his carries to go down when they run the ball more.Absolutely. I'm quite prepared to be burned by Vereen (again) at some point moving forward because of game state. NE only dialed up 14 rushes vs. NYJ because it was an actual game; they average 27 per game. There will be games where game flow dictates that Vereen doesn't see 8 targets in the passing game and that they run it closer to their average. That's when we'll see more of Gray. This is why I believe Vereen may be a good sell high, there may be people naive enough to believe what we witnessed last night will be the norm moving forward.humpback said:
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MattFancy
Footballguy
Do what now? Ridley is done for the yeargoing forward, this year, Ridkey will be running on relatively fresh legs...opposing Ds, not so much. Maybe BB stretches his usage out a bit...Vereen has never exceed 14 carries in his career. Although he has looked ridiculous running the ball up the gut at times this year (he looked very good vs. CIN) I don't think BB is dumb enough to have him do it 15+ times a game even if game flow calls for such due to his injury history. I agree, the Ridley injury will boost Vereen's carries by some non-zero amount but it won't be significant enough to off set those games where he isn't targeted in the passing game like vs. MIN or BUF this year. Maybe it boosts his PPR floor by 2 points at best but when NE goes run heavy and Vereen doesn't get his receptions it will hurt you regardless.I'm talking about the carries here- Vereen had a season high for carries on a night where the team had a season low (11 out of 14 total from RBs). Obviously Ridley being out had something to do with that, and I don't know why you'd expect his carries to go down when they run the ball more.Absolutely. I'm quite prepared to be burned by Vereen (again) at some point moving forward because of game state. NE only dialed up 14 rushes vs. NYJ because it was an actual game; they average 27 per game. There will be games where game flow dictates that Vereen doesn't see 8 targets in the passing game and that they run it closer to their average. That's when we'll see more of Gray. This is why I believe Vereen may be a good sell high, there may be people naive enough to believe what we witnessed last night will be the norm moving forward.humpback said:
Let's backtrack here- you said Ridley being out wouldn't boost Vereen's value. If you're now saying it does, then we agree.Vereen has never exceed 14 carries in his career. Although he has looked ridiculous running the ball up the gut at times this year (he looked very good vs. CIN) I don't think BB is dumb enough to have him do it 15+ times a game even if game flow calls for such due to his injury history. I agree, the Ridley injury will boost Vereen's carries by some non-zero amount but it won't be significant enough to off set those games where he isn't targeted in the passing game like vs. MIN or BUF this year. Maybe it boosts his PPR floor by 2 points at best but when NE goes run heavy and Vereen doesn't get his receptions it will hurt you regardless.I'm talking about the carries here- Vereen had a season high for carries on a night where the team had a season low (11 out of 14 total from RBs). Obviously Ridley being out had something to do with that, and I don't know why you'd expect his carries to go down when they run the ball more.Absolutely. I'm quite prepared to be burned by Vereen (again) at some point moving forward because of game state. NE only dialed up 14 rushes vs. NYJ because it was an actual game; they average 27 per game. There will be games where game flow dictates that Vereen doesn't see 8 targets in the passing game and that they run it closer to their average. That's when we'll see more of Gray. This is why I believe Vereen may be a good sell high, there may be people naive enough to believe what we witnessed last night will be the norm moving forward.humpback said:
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
So you agree that the "boost" is insignificant? Regardless, I stand by my assessment. If I was an ####### and hoping for a NE injury to boost Vereen's value, that injury would need to be to Edelman/Gronk and not Ridley.
Papa John's
Footballguy
I know its only 1 game, and I guess I should have said "He is one Ridley ACL/MCL tear away from 80-90% of the touches ... but, 11/14 carries and 8/20 (completions) as the leading receiver is pretty close
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No, I don't. Even if we went by your numbers, you think a 2 pt. boost to his floor is insignificant?
That wasn't your assessment. Your assessment was that this wasn't the night that Vereen owners have been waiting for, and that a banged up Ridley does not boost his value. I guess it's just a weird coincidence that he got the most carries, touches, and fantasy points in a game in the one game without him, where they only held the ball for 20 minutes?
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Hope you were able to buy low.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Yeah I think marginal boost in his floor is insignificant when his floor is essentially 0 if he's not involved in the game plan. I also don't think it's was a coincidence, no. NE was playing on a short week where they needed to sign up someone from thire PS squad as the only other compliment. I'll gladly concede that I'm wrong if BB starts using Vereen on a consistent basis regardless of game state.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Vereen can produce when used the problem is he isn't as capable of grinding out the clock or first downs on the ground as Ridley.
You end up with games like last night, which looked a hell of a lot like a lot of the games from last year. Low time of possession, less offensive snaps for everyone, defense gets tired, no takeaways (after leading the league, and against the ####### jets of all teams).
not true
James White was available and scratched. They didn't need to promote Gray. They had an experienced guy in Bolden and a guy they trusted in previous games in White.
it seems he had higher ypc and a higher percentage of positive runs than Ridley was getting. Jets were able to control ToP from the outset of this one....
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
BB's main thing is to be as being as non-predictable as possible. He sneers at us FF players, he's too busy trying to play games with the opposing DC week to week.
This. No one should assume that he's going to get almost all of the RB touches every week or anything, but it's clear as day that no Ridley was a big plus for Vereen. Some guys just have a hard time admitting they're wrong- it's really no big deal.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
wtf are you talking about?
they signed a rb off the ps because ridley got ir'd.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
This is like valuing Ridley as a RB1 after the two weeks he had 20+ carries, 100+ yards and a TD. You'd simply have to have not been paying attention to this backfield if you think for sure that what we saw last night is going the norm going forward. I'd rather be wrong since I actually own Vereen but my gut tells me that if/when NE actually has to grind out yards Vereen won't be as much of a factor, per usual.
Replace "where" with "and". NE needs Bolden for special teams and White isn't a grinder like Ridley, he'd do a better Vereen than Ridley impersonation. Gray was called up on a short week as the compliment so I'm not surprised he didn't get a ton of work, well that and the fact the NE was actually forced to pass a majority of the game and run 50% less than their average. I believe you hyped Vereen hard through-out this thread but you of all people should know that RB usage in this backfield is game specific and BB fully embraces the "next man up" philosophy.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
that's 100% true, but what do you mean by 'forced'?
I think it's an interesting question going fwd.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Maybe forced isn't quite the right word but the pass to run ratio was clearly heavily skewed towards pass (2.6:1 when it's been 1.3:1 on average). There were 4 lead changes and NE was constantly forced into positions where they needed to move the chains and or score points, never once having a comfortable lead. In fact, history suggests NE should have lost this game as I believe NYJ is the first team to have 40+ minutes of possession and 200+ rushing yards and lose. Anyway, I believe I have the right to be skeptical about Vereen truly ascending from RB3/flex status in PPR until I see some consistency in usage.
What on earth are you talking about? I didn't say that Vereen is a RB1 or that it's for sure what we saw last night is going to be the norm going forward. In fact, I specifically said that no one should assume that he's going to get almost all of the RB touches every week.
You said Vereen's value would not increase because Ridley was out. You were wrong. Admit it and move on.
Run It Up
Footballguy
If you accept that he can't play the Ridley role, of course he does.
I was never a Ridley fan, I saw him as more of a liability. But the kid was pretty good in between the tackles, something that Vereen can do, just not as reliably.
Ridley slowed the game down for the Pats, not that playing fast is a bad thing, its just when you aren't as efficient as the '11 Pats it becomes a problem as we saw last night. Just a couple 3 and outs, leaving the Jets in a catchable range all night - enabling them to keep running it down our throats, and keeping the Defense on the field to get even more tired. It just compounds.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
And my point is that Vereen could have had that same game even if Ridley were healthy because of game flow. It's not that hard of a concept to grasp.
Yeah, besides the fact that he didn't come close in 6 games with Ridley to the 1 game he had without him. Again, the most carries, touches, and fantasy points (by far) this season in the only game Ridley hasn't played, and it's a game that they only had the ball for 20 minutes. You said that it wasn't a coincidence, yet now you're arguing that it was.
Apparently reality is a hard concept to grasp (for you).
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
You're overreacting to a single data point being produced by a BB coached backfield. I have a feeling NE homers will agree that Vereen's role will remain largely unchanged and box score analysts will deem he gets a huge boost with Ridley sidelined. Time will tell I'm sure.humpback said:SameSongNDance said:
Yeah, besides the fact that he didn't come close in 6 games with Ridley to the 1 game he had without him. Again, the most carries, touches, and fantasy points (by far) this season in the only game Ridley hasn't played, and it's a game that they only had the ball for 20 minutes. You said that it wasn't a coincidence, yet now you're arguing that it was.
Apparently reality is a hard concept to grasp (for you).
You're overreacting to a single data point being produced by a BB coached backfield. I have a feeling NE homers will agree that Vereen's role will remain largely unchanged and box score analysts will deem he gets a huge boost with Ridley sidelined. Time will tell I'm sure.humpback said:SameSongNDance said:
Yeah, besides the fact that he didn't come close in 6 games with Ridley to the 1 game he had without him. Again, the most carries, touches, and fantasy points (by far) this season in the only game Ridley hasn't played, and it's a game that they only had the ball for 20 minutes. You said that it wasn't a coincidence, yet now you're arguing that it was.
Apparently reality is a hard concept to grasp (for you).
When the only data point you have is 10 points higher than his next best in any of his other 6 data points, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that there's probably some causation there.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Yeah..that's not how statistics works.You're overreacting to a single data point being produced by a BB coached backfield. I have a feeling NE homers will agree that Vereen's role will remain largely unchanged and box score analysts will deem he gets a huge boost with Ridley sidelined. Time will tell I'm sure.humpback said:SameSongNDance said:
Yeah, besides the fact that he didn't come close in 6 games with Ridley to the 1 game he had without him. Again, the most carries, touches, and fantasy points (by far) this season in the only game Ridley hasn't played, and it's a game that they only had the ball for 20 minutes. You said that it wasn't a coincidence, yet now you're arguing that it was.
Apparently reality is a hard concept to grasp (for you).
When the only data point you have is 10 points higher than his next best in any of his other 6 data points, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that there's probably some causation there.
Dawg Pound 69
Footballguy
He's wrong more often than not. Based on this thread, would imagine has been added to many people's Ignore list.humpback said:
Streetduck
Footballguy
Made the move today and traded Vereen, Bolden and a 4th rd. pick for Randall Cobb and the 20 bucks I spent on Bolden this week on waivers. Very happy considering I needed WR help to go with Hilton and have good depth at RB.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
One thing is for sure: Vereen is money against the Jets on Thursday nights.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
He may just be money versus the Jets period. His career long reception of 83 yards was against them two years ago. That one also went for a TD.
Omniscient Deity
Footballguy
If his usage from this week continues for the rest of the season this guy is gonna be PPR gold. Saw him get traded straight up for Alshon Jeffery in one PPR redraft today so his value is definitely skyrocketing again.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
~ PFF
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