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Stock Thread (21 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Todem
Footballguy
The valuations on industrial and transport stocks are stupid...the irrational exuberance has taken hold. At first the rally was simply a sector rotation, no new money was coming in. High quality was selling off and low quality was being bought.
Now everything is green. This is classic panic buying and dumb money has entered the market now IMO. People are in a frenzy because they are feeling like they missed it.
CAT - 55 times earnings. INSANE.
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siffoin
Footballguy
Though you and I might have had our differences in the past - I think you do a remarkable job investing.
In short - I think a minimum of 10% needs to be dedicated to home run plays. If you are younger (than 50) and know what you are doing I might say 20%.
I wouldn't suggest putting the entire "home-run allotment" amount into one stock or fund. A single stock will give you the biggest reward but offer the highest risk of a strike out. Some strike outs basically go under. I'd suggest finding "home run" focused ETFs that also have options available.
It's tough to invest or trade these on the basis of a "trend" too. These days there is just too much volatility and whipsaws. Rather I'd suggest some use of options in the plays - both for the initial purchase as well as managing the position.
On home run positions - I always have a target - and have no shame in taking profits. On a double it isn't unusual for me to sell the position outright and evaluate from there. I've often sold the entire position...and then come back at a later date and repurchased. I'll give you some examples (and you guys can gasp):
A lot is from memory so I may be off a little
In the fall of 2012, I purchased shares of $ACAD. This is one of my best trades ever. Purchase price was $1.80. A few months later $ACAD was trading at $7+. At that time we sold the entire position. Took half the profits and purchased an equal amount of $10 calls. Less than a year later we sold those calls when the share price was around $27. It was a big win.
In 2013, we purchased shares of $DDD. Purchase price was less than $30 and we wound up selling all those shares later that year for about $60. $DDD wound up going up towards $100...and when it began to fall in 2014...I repurchased shares for $47.28 (I know that because I own those shares today). "Siff, you bull####ter, what about trend, what about stop losses?" Very true. In some ways - I felt protected on the position because we already had a double from the year before...and I felt I was holding $30 of profit in the bag. Price kind of whipsawed for a while after this second purchase, I eventually I bought $40 puts when the trend confirmed bear. The puts provided huge protection as $DDD essentially crashed. The puts got closed out sometime last year I think at around $12 (it might have been $15). My trade window shows a pretty big loss on those shares right now (more than $25k)...but I made approx $24k on the initial buy and sell and another $15k on the Puts. So while $DDD is less than half of what I originally purchased it for in 2013 - overall it has been a winner and that is from managing the position and taking the profits on the initial run - staying true to the plan - and no regrets even when it ran far past the $60 where I initially sold it.
My home run positions today are focused on "potential" 5->10->20 years out. They are managed with options - meaning after the initial buy I will purchase puts to hedge in a bear trend and often sell puts to lower cost basis or add to the position in a bull trend. The initial buy takes place as early as possible into a bull trend, with the hope that the initial run on that trend can turn the position into a risk-free one. It takes work and a plan. Even then your best managed position can become busted...and it has happened to me.
As most know I also trade the emini futs and use that as an aggressive home run part of my portfolio. I used to be decent trading the futs. I'm not sure why I'm not so good anymore. My win rate is around 50% for the past year+. There have been times in the past it was above 60%. I know I've lost a lot of my nerve. I also trade in small lots. I also trade FOREX specifically the EUR:USD and the USD:CAD...I have a high win rate on the FOREX but the hours suck.
That's a long winded answer to give you 10%-20%. You need enough allocated to the plays to make the home runs worth your Mai Tai while, but not enough that a run of losers means you work as a Walmart greeter when you're 70 years old.
siffoin
Footballguy
But on Saturday you said you're riding out this charging bull through the end of the year?
Sand
Footballguy
Though you and I might have had our differences in the past - I think you do a remarkable job investing.
Wow, that's quite the compliment! I know we don't agree on a decent bit on how to go about investing, but I read everything you write as there are lots of ways to skin the cat and I learn something from just about every one of your posts.
In short - I think a minimum of 10% needs to be dedicated to home run plays. If you are younger (than 50) and know what you are doing I might say 20%.
I probably disagree here,though there is good logic to support this.
I wouldn't suggest putting the entire "home-run allotment" amount into one stock or fund. A single stock will give you the biggest reward but offer the highest risk of a strike out. Some strike outs basically go under. I'd suggest finding "home run" focused ETFs that also have options available.
At the biggest, IMO, a 5% rule should apply here. I'd be nervous with anything greater, and personally I'd go smaller.
It's tough to invest or trade these on the basis of a "trend" too. These days there is just too much volatility and whipsaws. Rather I'd suggest some use of options in the plays - both for the initial purchase as well as managing the position.
I've been trying to pick macro trends and quality plays inside of that. Shorter term trends are too tough with algorithm trading so prevalent now. Got a decent sized chunk of VTR, for example, as the aging population will drive growth there. If VTR keeps diving (dive, baby, dive!) I'll chunk in some more. I also like DE, as farm needs will continue to expand.
My home run positions today are focused on "potential" 5->10->20 years out.
Good timeline, concur.
As most know I also trade the emini futs and use that as an aggressive home run part of my portfolio. I used to be decent trading the futs. I'm not sure why I'm not so good anymore. My win rate is around 50% for the past year+. There have been times in the past it was above 60%. I know I've lost a lot of my nerve.
My investment sphincter is much tighter now at these market levels and as I'm about 20% away from FU money. I'm working extra hard to try and craft a portfolio that sheds market like returns with something that isn't as volatile as the market. I've underperformed a tad in this raging bull, but generally overperform in choppy/down markets.
That's a long winded answer to give you 10%-20%. You need enough allocated to the plays to make the home runs worth your Mai Tai while, but not enough that a run of losers means you work as a Walmart greeter when you're 70 years old.
The whole point is to get to Mai Tais. Or a Walmart greeter... on St. Barts.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I've been reading up on OPK due to the Siff recommendation.....I am sure he is cringing right now as he reads this 
Even though it has run up quite a bit lately, I think I'm going to dip my toes in the water. There is plenty to look forward to with this company - read up if you haven't already.
Effective this Monday 12/19, it will be part of the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI). Nice little bonus.
Even though it has run up quite a bit lately, I think I'm going to dip my toes in the water. There is plenty to look forward to with this company - read up if you haven't already.
Effective this Monday 12/19, it will be part of the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI). Nice little bonus.
Todem
Footballguy
Jesus Christ man going to 25% cash is not getting out of the market.humpback said:
sold some high multiple stocks for great profits and built some dry powder. Wrote some out of the money calls on others.
75% invested in my taxable account and 100% invested in my IRA/401K
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Sorry I asked if there was a reason you changed your mind. Now I remember why I stopped paying attention to your posts.
Todem
Footballguy
I have posted those reasons. Learn to read.
Sorry I asked if there was a reason you changed your mind. Now I remember why I stopped paying attention to your posts.
And stop paying attention to me......please. I have no clue what I am doing. I only manage over 200 million in assets going on 20 years.
So what do I know.
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Todem
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
You gave zero reasons for why you changed your mind, which was my question- on Saturday, you posted how you're riding out this raging bull until the end of the year and then you'll re-evaluate, and less than 2 trading days later you posted that you took money off the table and valuations are getting out of hand. I simply asked what had changed, because valuations didn't, so perhaps you did some more research/analysis in between that caused you to change your mind. You took it as an opportunity to act like a tool yet again, and here we are.
I know, you've told everyone that will listen that you're a real hot shot several times- me thinks it's compensating for something, but good luck to you.
siffoin
Footballguy
I'm looking for that combination sweet spot. The market $ is a reflection of BOTH Value and Trend. I've said numerous times - use fundamental analysis to determine WHAT to buy (or sell) and use technical analysis to tell you WHEN to buy (or sell) it. Every decision one makes in the market is a "timing" decision. You buy $XYZ today because you think it will be worth more tomorrow. You sell $XYZ today because you think it will be cheaper tomorrow.
Let's say we all can agree with Sand and Totem - that the market is over-valued. The question (to me) becomes when do I actually sell? For the "WHEN" we're looking at Technicals. To me, Technicals suggest that we have more upside left in this trend. Now Technical Analysis of Trend is going to lag. So it's possible that Today is the actual high and the "perfect" timing decision to exit. The trend won't confirm that for some time... a number of days to a few weeks. In a bearish trend more often than not there is opportunity to recognize the signal AND exit near the highs. Most of the time the Trend suggest being fully long. Other times it suggest being hedged or Flat. In rare occasions it suggests being out of the market or short. Individual stocks can be bearish in an overall market that is bullish. Individual stocks can also be bullish in an overall market that is bearish. Your best odds for success are to align your individual stocks with the larger market trend.
Now don't get me wrong. This is a BS market and there will come a time when this humpty dumpty is going to fall. But right now I think there is a bit more upside left- even though I think we're are at extreme levels of bullishness.
Here are a couple of charts from my twitter page.
First is a current chart showing times in the past couple of years when techncials called for "hedge"
Chart 1
The second is a chart from 2007-2011 to see what technicals look like as a market rolled over from bull->bear->bull
Chart 2
Taking profits from huge wins and then waiting for a better opportunity is never a bad thing in any market either - which is what I think Todem and Sand are talking about.
Let's say we all can agree with Sand and Totem - that the market is over-valued. The question (to me) becomes when do I actually sell? For the "WHEN" we're looking at Technicals. To me, Technicals suggest that we have more upside left in this trend. Now Technical Analysis of Trend is going to lag. So it's possible that Today is the actual high and the "perfect" timing decision to exit. The trend won't confirm that for some time... a number of days to a few weeks. In a bearish trend more often than not there is opportunity to recognize the signal AND exit near the highs. Most of the time the Trend suggest being fully long. Other times it suggest being hedged or Flat. In rare occasions it suggests being out of the market or short. Individual stocks can be bearish in an overall market that is bullish. Individual stocks can also be bullish in an overall market that is bearish. Your best odds for success are to align your individual stocks with the larger market trend.
Now don't get me wrong. This is a BS market and there will come a time when this humpty dumpty is going to fall. But right now I think there is a bit more upside left- even though I think we're are at extreme levels of bullishness.
Here are a couple of charts from my twitter page.
First is a current chart showing times in the past couple of years when techncials called for "hedge"
Chart 1
The second is a chart from 2007-2011 to see what technicals look like as a market rolled over from bull->bear->bull
Chart 2
Taking profits from huge wins and then waiting for a better opportunity is never a bad thing in any market either - which is what I think Todem and Sand are talking about.
Todem
Footballguy
Yep a hot shot.
You gave zero reasons for why you changed your mind, which was my question- on Saturday, you posted how you're riding out this raging bull until the end of the year and then you'll re-evaluate, and less than 2 trading days later you posted that you took money off the table and valuations are getting out of hand. I simply asked what had changed, because valuations didn't, so perhaps you did some more research/analysis in between that caused you to change your mind. You took it as an opportunity to act like a tool yet again, and here we are.
I know, you've told everyone that will listen that you're a real hot shot several times- me thinks it's compensating for something, but good luck to you.
You troll me continually......but we can end that. We simply should put each other on ignore.
Todem
Footballguy
I agree with you there is more upside left......I do think we very well may get a nice pause first quarter 2017 (7-15% range correction) hence why I want to have some dry powder and the reason I just built 25% cash in my all equity portfolio.
Once we get that pause, breather, whatever we want to call it, I intend on deploying the 25% cash into high quality equites with growing and strong dividends and ride this for another year (2017). I have always maintained I am still bullish for 2017 but will do some serious fundamental evaluation come 3rd and 4th quarter of 2017.
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I'm trying to follow you here- aren't you essentially saying that you really only use technical analysis? For instance, you wouldn't ignore the technicals if your fundamentals gave you a different picture, correct?
siffoin
Footballguy
A lot of you think I'm a permabear...which I'm not. Often you guys are buying $XYZ when it is in a significant bear trend...and I'm saying it's a bad buy". And I mean right now - WAIT.
I'm a TREND trader. So to me technical analysis is most important. That doesn't gel with what Wall Street is going to tell you. I think "fundamentals" can be exaggerated and are almost always slanted to the bullish side. Technicals don't lie...price don't lie.
I think it is possible to recognize opportunity in every market. To be only a buy and hold bull is dangerous. You have to prepare to take action in a downmarket. If you really want to get ahead you have to be able to outperform the SP500 over time. That's why you want to try to hit some home runs in a bull market. That's why you want to hedge or go to cash in a bear market. $1000 invested at the market peak in 2000 with dividends reinvested would be worth about $2000 today. However when adjusted for inflation only about $1400. Getting 7%+ after year is completely unrealistic with a buy and hold strategy. Granted buy and hold looks great at all time highs. But when the next bear comes and your portfolio loses 40%...it is going to take YEARS to get back to where you were at those highs...and time is what works against you in your investing lifetime.
That's what I think, and I'm sticking with it.
Me too. to just sit pat with your 401k thru a bear market (recession) is nuts. Get out when it comes and you will know it's coming. There are always signs.
I agree with most of this, and I think the market is overvalued as well (I've believed that for a while), just trying to decipher your last post. You wrote "use fundamental analysis to determine WHAT to buy (or sell) and technical analysis to determine WHEN to buy (or sell) it"- if your chart says buy, you buy, regardless of the fundamentals. So you'll never buy stocks you feel are cheap if the chart and/or market is neutral? Etc.
The difficulty with technicals/price is that while it's true they don't lie, they can and often do change rapidly, which is one reason why many people end up worse off trying to time the market. Also, there are many opinions on what indicators/parameters/time frames are important when determining the "trend"- are the charts you posted the ones you've been using for a long time?
siffoin
Footballguy
A lot of times someone will ask (or post) they're buying $XZY. I'll give them my opinion based on what the charts say- Not doing a complete analysis of fundamentals + technicals.
Speaking personally...I don't do scans that look for new trends and then just buy and sell those solely off that scan. I tend to pick stocks or sectors that I think I know something about or have a personal interest in. I'm not buying everything willy nilly based on a chart and nothing else. If I think a stock is cheap - it goes on a watch list. I'm looking at 3 different time frames - 60m; 1 day; 1 week. Daily being most important for decisions.
As the stock begin to turn from a bear trend into a bull trend...what I do is this:
1) Wait for confirmation on daily chart from Bear Trend to Bull Trend.
2) Wait for a short term sell off on a 60m chart.
3) Take an initial position when that 60m chart turns from Bear to Bull - assuming the Daily (new) Bull Trend is still intact.
The early part of a trend is the most dangerous as there is a fight between the bulls and bears. There is a bit of goldylocks here, as you want to give your position enough room to overcome a whipsaw. I don't use any kind of hard stop - like sell if the position loses 10%. Rather I'm looking at places of support...and then I look at a "stop zone". While I think it critical to have a plan...I also think it's important to have some flexibility. The only time I have hard stops are when I day trade the futs.
Timing isn't perfect. Hindsight is. A lot of times the hedge doesn't work and you would have been better off just holding. The 2014-Present chart is a good example. But in that moment...the charts were saying the major trend was vulnerable. I worry in times like that. Let me put it to you like this. I live in Idaho. We have a very active wildfire season here from June-September. Let's say I had a rural cabin and not only could I chose to buy fire insurance, I could chose when to buy it. So recognizing my cabin is at times vulnerable to being destroyed by wildfire...I buy fire insurance each June-September. Am I being stupid if there isn't a fire and my cabin doesn't burn down?
In regards to the charts. Pretty much I use the same indicators I have used for years. There have been very minimal changes. When you get right down to it - all I'm trying to do is determine if price is generally moving up or is it generally moving down. We make it harder than it should be--let me rephrase that - I make it harder than it should be.
The charts I post on twitter are more "general" and for the public. The longer a trend is intact the wider time frame is needed to fully understand it. So back in 2010...the most important trend was a daily trend. But now 7+ years out the weekly time frame is most important. With that said - most of my personal investing decisions are based off a daily chart- with an eye on the weekly. As a result, I look for places of support to add to existing positions or take on new positions so as to align with the overall weekly trend. I can react quicker. But a "buy and holder" certainly can have a simple set of tools to determine the weekly trend and adjust his portfolio accordingly. Zero percent interest rates and central bank easing is responsible for a lot of the current bull market run. Can that supply a floor for the market on the next down turn? Is it possible that the next bear market takes much longer to recover to today's highs. Like I said - time is your enemy in the long run.
So to be crystal clear.
side note: As you may know I own an ice cream business. Our reason to start it was to help people with barriers to employment. In your community there are people who struggle. There are people who deserve our love and compassion. We judge too easily. If you are here, and reading this thread. You are the lucky one. A simple act of kindness can go a long way to changing someones life for the better. I pray that opportunity will find you this season and you will take advantage of it.
GOOD LUCK!
Speaking personally...I don't do scans that look for new trends and then just buy and sell those solely off that scan. I tend to pick stocks or sectors that I think I know something about or have a personal interest in. I'm not buying everything willy nilly based on a chart and nothing else. If I think a stock is cheap - it goes on a watch list. I'm looking at 3 different time frames - 60m; 1 day; 1 week. Daily being most important for decisions.
As the stock begin to turn from a bear trend into a bull trend...what I do is this:
1) Wait for confirmation on daily chart from Bear Trend to Bull Trend.
2) Wait for a short term sell off on a 60m chart.
3) Take an initial position when that 60m chart turns from Bear to Bull - assuming the Daily (new) Bull Trend is still intact.
The early part of a trend is the most dangerous as there is a fight between the bulls and bears. There is a bit of goldylocks here, as you want to give your position enough room to overcome a whipsaw. I don't use any kind of hard stop - like sell if the position loses 10%. Rather I'm looking at places of support...and then I look at a "stop zone". While I think it critical to have a plan...I also think it's important to have some flexibility. The only time I have hard stops are when I day trade the futs.
Timing isn't perfect. Hindsight is. A lot of times the hedge doesn't work and you would have been better off just holding. The 2014-Present chart is a good example. But in that moment...the charts were saying the major trend was vulnerable. I worry in times like that. Let me put it to you like this. I live in Idaho. We have a very active wildfire season here from June-September. Let's say I had a rural cabin and not only could I chose to buy fire insurance, I could chose when to buy it. So recognizing my cabin is at times vulnerable to being destroyed by wildfire...I buy fire insurance each June-September. Am I being stupid if there isn't a fire and my cabin doesn't burn down?
In regards to the charts. Pretty much I use the same indicators I have used for years. There have been very minimal changes. When you get right down to it - all I'm trying to do is determine if price is generally moving up or is it generally moving down. We make it harder than it should be--let me rephrase that - I make it harder than it should be.
The charts I post on twitter are more "general" and for the public. The longer a trend is intact the wider time frame is needed to fully understand it. So back in 2010...the most important trend was a daily trend. But now 7+ years out the weekly time frame is most important. With that said - most of my personal investing decisions are based off a daily chart- with an eye on the weekly. As a result, I look for places of support to add to existing positions or take on new positions so as to align with the overall weekly trend. I can react quicker. But a "buy and holder" certainly can have a simple set of tools to determine the weekly trend and adjust his portfolio accordingly. Zero percent interest rates and central bank easing is responsible for a lot of the current bull market run. Can that supply a floor for the market on the next down turn? Is it possible that the next bear market takes much longer to recover to today's highs. Like I said - time is your enemy in the long run.
So to be crystal clear.
- I think this market is bull####
- I think this market is overvalued
- Even though I believe 1 & 2...I think the trend of the current market is strongly bullish
- Recognizing the strong bull trend, today I'm more likely to add to a position or take on a new position than close or short.
- Finally - I recognize that I might be wrong. And I'm open to change my opinion as market conditions change.
side note: As you may know I own an ice cream business. Our reason to start it was to help people with barriers to employment. In your community there are people who struggle. There are people who deserve our love and compassion. We judge too easily. If you are here, and reading this thread. You are the lucky one. A simple act of kindness can go a long way to changing someones life for the better. I pray that opportunity will find you this season and you will take advantage of it.
GOOD LUCK!
Sand
Footballguy
With all the headiness pretty much everywhere only a couple corners of the market are seeing value. Right now these are the interest rate sensitive areas. REITS, utilities, preferreds, mREITs, etc. I have spent the evening casting around and seeing if there is anything I really like. So far I've found utilities are just cooling off and aren't really a value yet - have XLU on alert if the sector keeps diving. Some preferreds are looking quite good - NLY ones look juicy (if they hit 23.5 I'm buying). Lots of the PSA ones are back to par (bulletproof income there) - too low a coupon for me, though. Looking longingly at CNTHP - absolutely bulletproof and on the cusp of a coupon I'll take (coming back toward par, too).
For pure equities I'm loving the drop in O. If it hits 52 I'm backing up the truck. VTR (talked about this earlier) - looking for 55. DLR - 94. Getting an itchy trigger finger over the sell button on CVX - own a ridiculous amount of this and am very ambivalent on what's happening there. Overheated but may be hitting a nice secular bull for energy.
Not seeing any buys yet, but these are definitely coming back down to earth. A small taper tantrum about now would be cool. Not sure why I'm writing this - just casting around.
For pure equities I'm loving the drop in O. If it hits 52 I'm backing up the truck. VTR (talked about this earlier) - looking for 55. DLR - 94. Getting an itchy trigger finger over the sell button on CVX - own a ridiculous amount of this and am very ambivalent on what's happening there. Overheated but may be hitting a nice secular bull for energy.
Not seeing any buys yet, but these are definitely coming back down to earth. A small taper tantrum about now would be cool. Not sure why I'm writing this - just casting around.
KGB
Footballguy
Hello from Christmas past!
Hope everyone's trading has been good. I received a letter in the mail regarding FEED settlement. Anyone else? What are we doing?
I haven't looked up my beloved HEB in many years but it looks to be back down to where we started ahahah.
Just to jump back in. DIS chart seems to have the 50 day and 200 day moving average about to cross. Any thoughts? Are all the moving averages bunk since everything just seems to be going up?
Hope everyone's trading has been good. I received a letter in the mail regarding FEED settlement. Anyone else? What are we doing?
I haven't looked up my beloved HEB in many years but it looks to be back down to where we started ahahah.
Just to jump back in. DIS chart seems to have the 50 day and 200 day moving average about to cross. Any thoughts? Are all the moving averages bunk since everything just seems to be going up?
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Stop triggered at $11.81; I'll look to jump back in if it pulls back.
Thnaks again siff!
Sand
Footballguy
If this comes back down and if I decide it's worth it I don't see the logic behind a quick 10%. I'd want a homerun.
Think about owning DRYS back in November at $4 and then stopping out at $5, only to watch it climb to $90.
Sand
Footballguy
And you booked a profit, which is also fine. I'm much better at buying than selling, so maybe you got out at a local top and are the next world trading genius.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I have family in this area of expertise. It's not a real good idea unless you plan on opening Cosjobs Jewelry Inc. If we don't talk, Merry Christmas GB.
siffoin
Footballguy
@siffoin. My 401(k), mix of index funds, lags on sell/buys by a day, so trying to time the best point is difficult. How do you use the daily chart to determine bull/bear and how would you adjust your strategy for the delay I mentioned?
1) Wait for confirmation on daily chart from Bear Trend to Bull Trend.
2) Wait for a short term sell off on a 60m chart.
3) Take an initial position when that 60m chart turns from Bear to Bull - assuming the Daily (new) Bull Trend is still intact.
1) Wait for confirmation on daily chart from Bear Trend to Bull Trend.
2) Wait for a short term sell off on a 60m chart.
3) Take an initial position when that 60m chart turns from Bear to Bull - assuming the Daily (new) Bull Trend is still intact.
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siffoin
Footballguy
You won't time the exact top. I don't know how to do that.
You 401k is an INVESTMENT - not a trade. We are in a prolonged bull trend. IMO the trend remains strong. (If today is THE top-- the trend would look strong there...it's a TREND at an ALL-TIME HIGH - of course it will look strong). I think that one day in the future this trend will turn to a bear. And for an investment account, I will look for that turn on a weekly trend. In that kind of time frame you will have days and weeks to begin to recognize that the market is in the process of changing trend. And that will give you plenty of time to prepare your 401k on how you would like to protect your current gains. The goal of recognizing trend is to accept you will not time the exact top of a bull market nor the exact bottom of a bear market. But will likely participate in the 80% meat of the move. Paying attention to the trend is not a "perfect" method to invest - (see the hedges of 2015 & 2016). Investing with the trend is a disciplined method. I post that $SPY Weekly chart pretty regularly on twitter. If you want my opinion on the current trend you can check there.
Steelhedge Weekly Trend
There are other people way better than me out there too. Trend investing isn't new and there are a lot of great sources for you to learn about it. Assuming one day this bull market will end...I'd suggest you spend time now looking at your investments and determining an action plan on what you will do when that turn occurs. Will you sell outright? What about covered calls? Is there a short ETF you could purchase to hedge your positions? Then, when the market turns you can enact a well thought through plan.
Hope that makes sense.
Sand
Footballguy
How do you do this? Easy:
1. Grab shovel.
2. Close eyes.
3. Scoop money pile and chuck into 401k account.
4. Continue until retirement.
Lol...But which fund? Have target retirement, index funds (small, large, bonds, international), and tbills.
Sand
Footballguy
Absent details like age and risk tolerance, I personally a big fan of 60/40 equity to bonds, so I'd say:
25% large equity, 15% small equity, 20% international, 40% total bonds
All completely IMO, of course.
I see it differently that Sand does. I'm not a fan at all of 60/40. I control my wife's 457b and my own. You can actually be in too many funds and they end up cancelling each other out and you spin your wheels. Her co worker is spread out like Sand mentioned. She has spun her wheels putting the same amount of $ in as my wife does. She was in shock when my wife told her that she had 3x as much $ after 6 years. She even rode this turd down: Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strat Y (BRCYX). I believe she had 10% in it at one time. The valic guy put here in that turd. I was in it for a month or so when gold was going up early last year but that was it.rascal said:
If you really want to make $, you have to pay attention to the markets. If you go 60/40, in 2017, I will bet that you will lose in bonds and win in stocks and your gains will suck. I'm 52 and will be 100% stocks even after I retire because that will be my job in retirement.
If I am correct, treasury go up, bonds go down. As this: CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T goes up, this: VALIC Company II Core Bond (VCCBX) while it has dropped a lot, it can drop a lot more. It will cancel out your stock gains.
Here is my list that I choose from. VMIDX VCAAX VCIXX VCCCX VCGSX VSTIX VCIEX VCSOX VCIFX VCSLX VCCEX VGRIX VCSTX VCSMX VCINX VCIGX VWESX VUSTX VWNFX VWELX VISEX VASMX PSOAX VAMGX VMCVX VCCAX VACVX VCSRX VCNIX VAGLX VMGLX VCGLX VASGX VSMGX VSCGX VCCBX VCSBX VCHYX LHGFX VCBCX VCHSX VAVAX VBCVX VLCCX VCTPX VCULX VLCGX VMSGX VSSVX VSSGX VSAGX VCGEX VGLSX VCFVX VGREX BRCYX VDAFX
I am allowed to move my money 100 times a year. I moved it 35 this year. I think it was over 50 last year. As long as I beat the S&P and NAZ, I will continue to do it. It's hard to be in small cap aggressive when the market sells off because it really gets punished. I vary from being in just one to being in about 5. I will jump from small cap to money market I to small cap index to money market II to naz 100 index. Currently in mid cap value, mid cap growth and broad cap value.
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
I will respectfully disagree with your disagreement.
Though I do greatly dislike commodity based vehicles in retirement accounts. I hate gold, period.You can absolutely see some people going nuts and getting put into way too many funds. And get into funds that overlap substantially. The most I would consider is Merriman Ultimate, which is 12 very separate funds (it's also the one I like the best, particularly for taxable accounts). The math is pretty clear that some of these constructions have very good risk adjusted performance (and by that I mean performance very similar to all stocks with much less drawdown). I'm at about 12% return this year with 30-40% less drawdown than ^GSPC - in February the market dropped 11% I dropped 7%. I'll take that - I'm definitely more risk averse these days as I'm relatively close to a big inflection point and want to try and not drop way off of that.
For most folks a 60/40 is reasonable, has good risk adjusted properties, and can be easily executed.
Most retirement accounts like this don't allow anywhere near that many transactions (mine allows roundtrips every couple months or so, so much more restrictive). That and I don't pretend to know what the equity winds will do month to month - if you can do this good on you.
Good luck with your 100% equities. I sincerely hope it works for you, though history says it will be a very bumpy ride.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
