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Stock Thread (34 Viewers)

And just to touch on gold:

You can yield basically zero from government paper that can be printed at will, or you can own a store of value for thousands of years that yields the same thing. Gold is getting ready for a major bull market... 

Barrick Gold is a $100 stock within 5 years. I could see it getting as low as $8 or $10 with all the turbulence, but I'm just on autopilot scaling into that one for the next year. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
The quants will still try, you need to model something to try and find value. 

And yes, fully agree, no bottom, probably no V Shape recovery either. 
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My opinion is V shape for some industry's , much flatter or worse for other industries.

There are going to be winners and losers and it's going to be clear which ones those are within months.

 
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Also, for every job lost what’s the lag time for that person re-entering the work force?

there obviously is a massive disconnect between the real economy and the stock market at times, but I don’t think the latter has fully and efficiently accounted for the splintered problems of the former. I can’t imagine how it possible could.

 
Like realistically, without the government this thing just spirals downwards badly.    So now it's a question of how much of that they can help avoid.

 
DrJ said:
Like realistically, without the government this thing just spirals downwards badly.    So now it's a question of how much of that they can help avoid.
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The Fed and the government can inject a ton of liquidity but I’m not sure what, if anything, they can do about demand short of buying airline tickets, cruise ship packages, movie tickets, and everything else consumption related.

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
The Fed and the government can inject a ton of liquidity but I’m not sure what, if anything, they can do about demand short of buying airline tickets, cruise ship packages, movie tickets, and everything else consumption related.
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Yeah, I definitely agree.     And the reality to me, some of these people aren't getting their jobs back.    They just aren't.    The demand at places like movie theaters and restaurants is going to have a sharp drop for a decent bit.     Even some other places like clothing stores.    Like my whole "mall was packed to the gills" stuff - we went to one of those legging stores, whatever is popular now don't ask me the name.    And people were freely co-mingling, taking stuff off the shelves people just put back, lining up in this massive line for the dressing room.     I can't imagine this being anything like that for a while now.       And so surely all of these places are going to be operating reduced staff when they do open, for who knows how long.    Until people stop being scared.

 
DrJ said:
Yeah, I definitely agree.     And the reality to me, some of these people aren't getting their jobs back.    They just aren't.    The demand at places like movie theaters and restaurants is going to have a sharp drop for a decent bit.     Even some other places like clothing stores.    Like my whole "mall was packed to the gills" stuff - we went to one of those legging stores, whatever is popular now don't ask me the name.    And people were freely co-mingling, taking stuff off the shelves people just put back, lining up in this massive line for the dressing room.     I can't imagine this being anything like that for a while now.       And so surely all of these places are going to be operating reduced staff when they do open, for who knows how long.    Until people stop being scared.
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Honestly the part about being scared might be until there’s a vaccine. At least for people in cities.

A month of not dealing with people, social distancing etc is going to take awhile to mentally unwind from. 

 
SayWhat? said:
I agree that the unemployment outlook is largely accounted for at this stage, but there’s nothing temporary about a lot of these closings.  That’s far too cavalier.  There’s going to be a lot of small businesses shuttering doors because of this, and lots of them permanently. 
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I certainly don't see this as a true "recession". This is 95% Covid 19 effect ... and 5% is a correction of the stock market being oversold and inflated.

We may see some of the weakest hands fold but if your "small business" cant weather this storm, your business probably wasn't healthy to begin with.

We've had a decade or more of prosperity ... and your small business can't quarantine and make 3 rent/mortgage payments without incoming revenue? 

Not to mention all the Fed relief for small business on the way. 

 
Bossman said:
I certainly don't see this as a true "recession". This is 95% Covid 19 effect ... and 5% is a correction of the stock market being oversold and inflated.

We may see some of the weakest hands fold but if your "small business" cant weather this storm, your business probably wasn't healthy to begin with.

We've had a decade or more of prosperity ... and your small business can't quarantine and make 3 rent/mortgage payments without incoming revenue? 

Not to mention all the Fed relief for small business on the way. 
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Three mortgage payments? That’s what you think the costs of operating a business are?  Never mind payroll, health/dental/life/disability benefits, retirement contributions, utilities, service/maintenance agreements, debt obligations...you get the drift.  You don’t shutter a small business for months and just only have to pay the GD rent.
 

And Fed relief for small business?  You mean loans?  Loans undoubtedly charging interest. That small businesses which may run on razor thin margins in a normal world still have to ultimately repay? Not a very easy decision for mom and pop pizza joint.  I’ll stand by my assertion that there will be a material amount of small businesses who close up permanently, with a corresponding amount of unemployed for more than just a few months.
 

 
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Bossman said:
I certainly don't see this as a true "recession". This is 95% Covid 19 effect ... and 5% is a correction of the stock market being oversold and inflated.

We may see some of the weakest hands fold but if your "small business" cant weather this storm, your business probably wasn't healthy to begin with.

We've had a decade or more of prosperity ... and your small business can't quarantine and make 3 rent/mortgage payments without incoming revenue? 

Not to mention all the Fed relief for small business on the way. 
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Trying to apply this “weakest hand” rationale to your average commercial tenant in NYC and I just cannot wrap my brain around it.

Guess we are gonna find out in a hurry.

 
SayWhat? said:
Three mortgage payments? That’s what you think the costs of operating a business are?  Never mind payroll, health/dental/life/disability benefits, retirement contributions, utilities, service/maintenance agreements, debt obligations...you get the drift.  You don’t just shutter a small business for months and just have to pay the GD rent.
 

And Fed relief for small business?  You mean loans?  Loans undoubtedly charging interest. That small businesses which may run on razor thin margins in a normal world still have to ultimately repay? Not a very easy decision for mom and pop pizza joint.  I’ll stand by my assertion that there will be a material amount of small businesses who close up permanently, with a corresponding amount of unemployed for more than just a few months.
 
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Not to mention some level of cascading effect because businesses rely on businesses that rely on other businesses.

 
Might have made a mistake, we'll see.

Sold all of my non retirement funds, liquidated. in anticipation of moving from M1 to Robin hood (I have an account, haven't used it in almost a year). Also have an e trade account. I think RH is the right way to go. 

Or, should I just put the money in the kids college accounts now that they look like they'll need some more money? 

 
Is there anything still out there that is such an absurdly good value as BA was a week or so ago, when it was under a hundred bucks?

Kicking myself for not going in heavier on that. Just knew it looked so good. But whatever, hindsight is 20/20. What else is outstanding value right now?  Still BA?  Airlines?  Hotel groups?  

 
Otis said:
Is there anything still out there that is such an absurdly good value as BA was a week or so ago, when it was under a hundred bucks?

Kicking myself for not going in heavier on that. Just knew it looked so good. But whatever, hindsight is 20/20. What else is outstanding value right now?  Still BA?  Airlines?  Hotel groups?  
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Yea southwest and delta look good imo. Marriott. Not as obvious or as quick as Boeing, that was free money. 

 
Futures down almost 2%. I can’t imagine that’s a good number. It was mentioned that it could be from 1-2.5M. I’d think over 2.5M would be a negative and that’s what the futures look like. That said I have no clue.

 
stbugs said:
Futures down almost 2%. I can’t imagine that’s a good number. It was mentioned that it could be from 1-2.5M. I’d think over 2.5M would be a negative and that’s what the futures look like. That said I have no clue.
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You must be watching delayed quotes because the futures popped immediately after the release and have remained there since.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I posted a number on the DJIA futures yesterday that I anticipated would be heavily sold. When we got there today, I watched closely to see the action/volume/etc, after watching for a short time, I knew I was correct. I sold DJIA futures contracts (symbol YM) at that level and bought them back just now 1k points lower. 
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Otis said:
Is there anything still out there that is such an absurdly good value as BA was a week or so ago, when it was under a hundred bucks?

Kicking myself for not going in heavier on that. Just knew it looked so good. But whatever, hindsight is 20/20. What else is outstanding value right now?  Still BA?  Airlines?  Hotel groups?  
Click to expand...


Capella said:
Yea southwest and delta look good imo. Marriott. Not as obvious or as quick as Boeing, that was free money. 
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Can we please stop with this silliness? Everyone "knew it" in hindsight, but NO ONE does in real time.

 
humpback said:
Can we please stop with this silliness? Everyone "knew it" in hindsight, but NO ONE does in real time.
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I said sell futures at 21,792 on Tuesday night, Wednesday afternoon I sold them at that level and caught 1k points without much effort. I did know :shrug:

Everyone is used to the old bull market, so they’re buying the bad news right now bc stocks only go up. That jobs report is a glimpse into what’s coming, and it’s insanely ugly. 22,500 is the ceiling. 

 
Mancini - Unprecedented bad job number and as usual markets did exactly the opposite of what most retail traders were expecting which was rally (for now). Still watching my below chart - we're chopping sideways after the Sun-Wed 18% rally. 2650-2670 remains main resistance/short zone

 
The infected and death numbers coming out of NYC are staggering. Looks like we;re on our way to 3rd green day in a row. I think it's safe to say that the market doesn't care about people's lives anymore. It did when we lost 30+%, but I guess that's old news at this point? Still on the sidelines but regretting it each day. 

 
The stimulus bill hasn't even passed yet.  MAYBE the house votes this week, lol.  Unemployment skyrocketing and will get way way worse.  Death rates rising.  More and more pleading for people to stay away from each other.......15+% multi day gaining period.

 
NajehHejan said:
The infected and death numbers coming out of NYC are staggering. Looks like we;re on our way to 3rd green day in a row. I think it's safe to say that the market doesn't care about people's lives anymore. It did when we lost 30+%, but I guess that's old news at this point? Still on the sidelines but regretting it each day. 
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It never cared about people’s lives. I never understood that thinking behind it dropping. It only cares about how the virus affects commerce. 

 
There is only 1 question that needs tob e asked and that is:

Is this a dead cat bounce, bear market relief rally or has the low been established and the markets have already priced in the virus and economic damage. 

Here's the thing, get a cure or guaranteed treatment and we are off to the races. Everyone goes back to work with free money. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I said sell futures at 21,792 on Tuesday night, Wednesday afternoon I sold them at that level and caught 1k points without much effort. I did know :shrug:

Everyone is used to the old bull market, so they’re buying the bad news right now bc stocks only go up. That jobs report is a glimpse into what’s coming, and it’s insanely ugly. 22,500 is the ceiling. 
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Capella said:
I literally did it in real time. Post is a few pages back. So did a bunch of people here. 
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:lmao:

I suppose I could go quote all of the times you (and everyone) have been wrong, but maybe those times you didn't really know, you just had a hunch?

I presume all of you guys who "knew" what was going to happen are posting from your own private islands?

Hate to break it to you, but you didn't "know" anything. No one did.

 
Well, I officially concede to the fact that I know nothing and will never know anything about stocks and the general stock market.  I have always known this, but hoped I could at least gain myself a little bit of a financial edge during this crisis, but seems that just isnt going to happen.  

I am still going to stay out of  my 403b for now as I am still sort of "playing with house money" on that one, but one more day like today (assuming 4-5% holds) then I'm back to where I started. 

I guess I screwed up not going back in with the S%P around 2200.  Maybe one day too late since it went up 10% the next freaking day.  

Good luck guys.  I bet a lot of you who were prepped for this made a killing, and still should  make even more of a killing.  

 
NajehHejan said:
The infected and death numbers coming out of NYC are staggering. Looks like we;re on our way to 3rd green day in a row. I think it's safe to say that the market doesn't care about people's lives anymore. It did when we lost 30+%, but I guess that's old news at this point? Still on the sidelines but regretting it each day. 
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The market is forward looking, and it works both ways- we tanked well before the infected and death numbers looked bad, and it'll rally before the numbers look "better" (like it's doing right now). Time will tell if this is a temporary reprieve or the "all clear", but it really has nothing to do with caring about people's lives, it's about trying to predict the future.

 
humpback said:
The market is forward looking, and it works both ways- we tanked well before the infected and death numbers looked bad, and it'll rally before the numbers look "better" (like it's doing right now). Time will tell if this is a temporary reprieve or the "all clear", but it really has nothing to do with caring about people's lives, it's about trying to predict the future.
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How far into the future?  Yeah things will be good in like a 1-2 year time frame, in which case things SHOULD be back to business as usual, though with a lot of failed businesses and probably still somewhat high unemployment.

Is the market really predicting things to be shut down for close to a year?

Or I guess the market just assumes the government will just keep passing out trillions every month until everything is fine?  Even though they havent even passed anything yet?

 
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humpback said:
:lmao:

I suppose I could go quote all of the times you (and everyone) have been wrong, but maybe those times you didn't really know, you just had a hunch?

I presume all of you guys who "knew" what was going to happen are posting from your own private islands?

Hate to break it to you, but you didn't "know" anything. No one did.
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Go nuts I don’t care what you do, I get bigger issues in my life than some dork re-quoting posts on the message board from months ago. I’ll save you the trouble — I’ve been wrong a bunch of times. This one was obvious. 

 
Really dumb question.  Why are the percentages on my stocks app so different from the current percentages listed in my Vanguard account?  My stock app shows NCLH up 4.25% and Vanguard is showing it up 0.12%.  

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Well, I officially concede to the fact that I know nothing and will never know anything about stocks and the general stock market.  I have always known this, but hoped I could at least gain myself a little bit of a financial edge during this crisis, but seems that just isnt going to happen.  

I am still going to stay out of  my 403b for now as I am still sort of "playing with house money" on that one, but one more day like today (assuming 4-5% holds) then I'm back to where I started. 

I guess I screwed up not going back in with the S%P around 2200.  Maybe one day too late since it went up 10% the next freaking day.  

Good luck guys.  I bet a lot of you who were prepped for this made a killing, and still should  make even more of a killing.  
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Been there done that. If you move 403b money around you gotta be able to beat the S&P and it's not easy but it's doable. It's almost a job however. 

 
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