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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
gruecd
Footballguy
"The market" is simply the present value of the future earnings of the companies that compose it. To the extent that people's lives affect those numbers, it cares.
Emotional reactions to headlines are just opportunities to be exploited.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I think everyone is just hulled up somewhere and the stress is getting to everyone, not just in this thread, but this entire board.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I never do it. I Wanted to do it once. It was obvious to me the market would tank. It did. It still SHOULD but who the F knows.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Walk me through the MGM thinking, just a complete overreaction? What's their exposure besides obviously Vegas? I'm intrigued.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The death numbers sadly equal shutdowns, which decimate future earnings. The market is ignoring them now, but it can't for long, and when it doesn't, it turns quick.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
This really is a good place to sell, but I think 22,500 could be in the cards.
My brother told me to get in it. All I know is it was 30+ before the virus, once the virus is over it will be back to 30+. They are not going out of business and they were virtually priced to go out of business.
gruecd
Footballguy
If you think/know that, the market already knows that, and it's priced in. None of this is going to come as a surprise to anybody. Why do you think we're up 3.8% today despite the horrible unemployment numbers?
Unless you think everybody is underestimating how long this whole thing is gonna last, which is another issue completely.
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The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Okay, so you're sticking with you "knew it". So how many tens of millions of dollars did you pull in from this "knowledge"?
I guess you missed where I wrote "everyone", but you've got quite the track record.
I've been doing this long enough and am humble enough to admit I don't "know" definitively what's going to happen in the market. Newsflash, neither do you.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Honestly why can't you just drop it?Okay, so you're sticking with you "knew it". So how many tens of millions of dollars did you pull in from this "knowledge"?
I guess you missed where I wrote "everyone", but you've got quite the track record.
I've been doing this long enough and am humble enough to admit I don't "know" definitively what's going to happen in the market. Newsflash, neither do you.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Obviously nobody does, but we can make educated guesses by modeling different scenarios through data.
Ok, we get it. But this is a place where people are talking about their thoughts, strategies, recommendations, and hunches. I think you’re taking the “I knew it” just a bit too literally.Okay, so you're sticking with you "knew it". So how many tens of millions of dollars did you pull in from this "knowledge"?
I guess you missed where I wrote "everyone", but you've got quite the track record.
I've been doing this long enough and am humble enough to admit I don't "know" definitively what's going to happen in the market. Newsflash, neither do you.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am thinking that yes, this is the case.
Serious question, since I know nothing about the market. How long does this market think people will basically be shut ins and how long does the market think gatherings of any kind will be shut down (sports, concerts, restaurants, meetings, travel, parks............)?
I think all of that is at minimum 7-8 months away. No NBA, no MLB, no NFL this year. Probably no theme parks for the rest of the year. Is the market REALLY pricing this in?
Because there seems to be quite a few rookie "investors" in this thread recently and I don't want them to get crushed. Thinking you "know" what is going to happen is quite frankly dangerous.
-OZ-
Footballguy
To some degree, as high as that number is, just knowing the number is better than the fear of the number.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The market doesn't go in a linear path down nor a linear path up (although it has for 12 years, which is how I explain the buying today). This is an extraordinary event, this has never happened. To think the market crashes and recovers in weeks or even months is pricing in a much rosier outlook than the spread of this virus is currently showing. Maybe the market anticipates the data will improve, IDK, nobody does.
If the incoming virus data continues on the current trajectory, and the market keeps going up, say another 3k points, I'll have to put my conspiracy hat on and say the Fed is covertly outright buying equities either in individual companies or possibly ETFs.
Capella
Footballguy
You don’t have to keep projecting your incompetence on this to everybody else.Okay, so you're sticking with you "knew it". So how many tens of millions of dollars did you pull in from this "knowledge"?
I guess you missed where I wrote "everyone", but you've got quite the track record.
I've been doing this long enough and am humble enough to admit I don't "know" definitively what's going to happen in the market. Newsflash, neither do you.
A few people who know more than anyone here:
Rev Shark - dont need subscription in real money. Just clear your browser cache.
Helen Meisler - also on real money.
Adam Mancini
Kass
Notice that Cramer is not on that list. HE KNOWS NOTHING!!!!!!!
Rev Shark - dont need subscription in real money. Just clear your browser cache.
Helen Meisler - also on real money.
Adam Mancini
Kass
Notice that Cramer is not on that list. HE KNOWS NOTHING!!!!!!!
Capella
Footballguy
gruecd
Footballguy
I don't know what "the market" thinks, but I can tell you that I disagree with you wholeheartedly on the bolded. Don't really have any facts to support my opinion, but I just don't see that happening.
Absolutely.
I started off by asking if we could stop saying that, it's a pet peeve of mine and really a dangerous mindset to have. I was hoping to see more replies like above, but some are digging in their heels so no other way to take them but literally.
Some pretty compelling arguments if you are a chartist that this bear market is starting just like the last two did. If you believe in that stuff we are likely in Bear Market rally territory after the initial sell-off before we start the slow, grinding moves down that last months before a real bottom and capitulation occur. It could be said there are a lot of similarities to what's going on the last few days to when TARP was announced.
That prediction/opinion and $5 will buy you a cup of coffee though, just like all those V-shaped recovery predictions/opinions.
That prediction/opinion and $5 will buy you a cup of coffee though, just like all those V-shaped recovery predictions/opinions.
Okay i-tough guy. I trade more in an hour than you will in your lifetime but you do you.
Capella
Footballguy
I’m the tough guy here?
Okay i-tough guy. I trade more in an hour than you will in your lifetime but you do you.
I don’t care about you at all, piss off already. This is boring.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
I really hope I am wrong about major gatherings being shut down for like 9 more months. I really do. However, i have no reason to believe it wont.
Unless everyone just all of a sudden stops caring about people and just takes the idea of "survival of the fittest" and all that. I suppose that is possible
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Shula-holic
Footballguy
I don't trade individual stocks anymore but this was one of two I was really interested in just last week. I had a buddy who still trades and picked up a bunch of MGM. Gotta admit I wished I'd had the old account fired up for that. I am working on getting a new account loaded up for longer term holdings of a few stocks if we happen to drift back downward. Like many have said, we likely retest or go lower, but who knows when that next leg down or retest never happens.
gruecd
Footballguy
At some point, you have to find a balance between the human cost of the virus and the human cost of letting the economy go too far south. And I don't envy the people whose job it is to find that balance.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'm betting on the fall. Even have a trip scheduled to DW and universal in November, beach trip in October.
I can see no fans for the preseason games, maybe into the season even. But the TV contract is huge. It would really surprise me if the NFL cancels the season.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Even if they do, that's only the supply side of the equation. I think June sounds somewhat realistic, but honestly, I need to see more data.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
For those that need a visual on why I don't think the selling is done, here you go.
If you think this will stop in a week or two, that's your opinion... The loss of jobs is about to be staggering imo! Hence, why I'm personally worried as well.
ETA:
This is like combining 5 of the worst weeks during the financial crisis into 1 week, and it's just the first week.
If you think this will stop in a week or two, that's your opinion... The loss of jobs is about to be staggering imo! Hence, why I'm personally worried as well.
ETA:
This is like combining 5 of the worst weeks during the financial crisis into 1 week, and it's just the first week.
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Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Did we get the results back on those 4 patients that are hopped up on Leronlimab. Need to see those charts.
Capella
Footballguy
I really have no idea when but as soon as Disney gets an opening they’re going to take it imo
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So when does all this major end of the month buying and rebalancing end? April fools day?
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[icon]
Insoxicated
Um, which one of us called the other a dork and said we kept projecting our incompetence, and now continues with the insults?I’m the tough guy here?
I'm happily done with this, hopefully a couple of the novices took something productive from it.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
I've said this a few times but if you want to make some money on a short term trade, buy puts a month out on TTD. It's rising in the face of a really bad time for media. There are no sports for forseeable future and brands do not want to advertise against COVID 19 so news sites aren't doing all that great either.
I can't believe its been up for multiple days now.
I can't believe its been up for multiple days now.
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Sputnikv8
Footballguy
Ya. Seriously. I wonder if the site tracks people added to ignore. Could track them like stocks and see trends. Lump several of them in a “fund” etc.
Guess all this stay-home-stay-safe stuff makes folks horny to fight.
A blind money could do it. Almost every study shows that the average investor loses money doing this.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I didn't hear anything about how it did with their COVID-19, but it lowered their cholesterol, improved their vision, and boosted their testosterone.
Big League Chew
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Kinda want some RCL puts after 5 days of green. Like 4/17 $35, anyone intrigued?
