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Being in the Restaurant biz my whole life I wouldn’t touch any stocks for them right now.  Lots of room down to go. Even if the world starts opening back up in May social distancing group gathering guidelines will almost certainly be in effect and will drastically affect the capacities of these restaurants. The restaurant industry has a long long difficult road ahead

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3 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

CCL dying?

Shoulda paid their taxes.

The cruise industry, unlike airlines wasn’t mentioned in the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package approved by the U.S. Senate late Wednesday. 

Critics of the industry say that while most cruise ships are headquartered in the U.S., they are registered abroad and don’t pay U.S. taxes. The lines are also exempt from many U.S. labor and safety regulations.

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I moved a bit more in today.... now 70 IN / 30 Cash 
 
Models show us looking at ~15-20k people dying next week and possibly 60-80k the following week. I have to think that induces another push down... barring significant promise from treatments like CYDY and Chloroquine. 

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CCL has about 18-20 months of liquidity with their new raises according to my calculations. I think they're cutting it close.

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CYDY finishing strong--opposite of yesterday.

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5 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

more like sinking

It is looking grim. Hence why we never went in yet......it’s bad. Gotta sit tight and be superbly patient with taking any position in CCL or even an airline. I do not trust they care about stock holders at all. 

Now MGM and BLMN......survivors IMO. 

And my master list are all survivors. 

Re-test is going to happen and maybe even new lows.

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2 minutes ago, Todem said:

It is looking grim. Hence why we never went in yet......it’s bad. Gotta sit tight and be superbly patient with taking any position in CCL or even an airline. I do not trust they care about stock holders at all. 

Now MGM and BLMN......survivors IMO. 

And my master list are all survivors. 

Re-test is going to happen and maybe even new lows.

Why no F in the master list?

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Just now, Random said:

Why no F in the master list?

A dog with fleas. I can’t stand auto stocks. Never invested in them in my entire life. I simply do not like their volatility, management...nothing about them is attractive to me.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Todem said:

A dog with fleas. I can’t stand auto stocks. Never invested in them in my entire life. I simply do not like their volatility, management...nothing about them is attractive to me.

F is rough right now.  Was on the decline before this.  Horrible CEO.  Probably a good value down the line, but will take a while.

Edited by Al Czervik

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ATHX

Stemcell drug company. I've had 1000 shares of this for over 6 years, just sitting on it. Now it may be the wonder drug for corona. Fox news let the cat out of the bag today:

Link

It is still cheap, closed today around $4

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6 minutes ago, Todem said:

It is looking grim. Hence why we never went in yet......it’s bad. Gotta sit tight and be superbly patient with taking any position in CCL or even an airline. I do not trust they care about stock holders at all. 

Now MGM and BLMN......survivors IMO. 

And my master list are all survivors. 

Re-test is going to happen and maybe even new lows.

Goodness, 33% off today, like 80% YTD

Cruises are one industry I hope dies, but that's massive. 

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9 minutes ago, [icon] said:

I moved a bit more in today.... now 70 IN / 30 Cash 
 
Models show us looking at ~15-20k people dying next week and possibly 60-80k the following week. I have to think that induces another push down... barring significant promise from treatments like CYDY and Chloroquine. 

I've got nothing against other treatments and obviously want to find something that will help people in need but if I were offered Chloroquine or Hydroxychloroqine for treatment, I'd refuse both. 

I don't own any but check out ATHX Athersys as a possible treatment for ARDS.  That may work, but again, I just saw a news story on them today.

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1 hour ago, Sand said:

We shouldn't, IMO.  Now if they put all their US based ships under a US flag that may change things.  They pay precious little taxes to the US due to their foreign structure designed specifically to limit their US tax exposure.  

Yeah, I think there would (and should) be ENORMOUS outrage if they were even mentioned in a bailout.  They aren't paying taxes, aren't essential and in my one and ONLY experience with one in 2003, felt like I was getting 8 feet of rebar up my poophole upon exiting.  What a racket.  

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Good thing all of these brilliant companies put some of that extra money from an 11 year bull market and a tax cut gift to such good use... You know, like share buybacks, which have been on steroids for the last few years. I can now buy for cheaper than they did... Maybe they can sell to me down here to raise much needed capital.

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5 minutes ago, Joe Mammy said:

ATHX

Stemcell drug company. I've had 1000 shares of this for over 6 years, just sitting on it. Now it may be the wonder drug for corona. Fox news let the cat out of the bag today:

Link

It is still cheap, closed today around $4

I saw the report.  Interesting company.

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1 minute ago, General Malaise said:

They aren't paying taxes, aren't essential 

This

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4 minutes ago, chet said:

I saw the report.  Interesting company.

Their gains are outpacing CYDY :hot:

 

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29 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Took my original investment in CYDY back at 3$. Free rolling the rest. Thanks @chet, you’re the man, appreciate the great advice.  

I want to pull the trigger on this, but I bought at .307.  I don't need the money and I don't care to get my initial investment back and kick myself if this takes off some more.  Should I do this anyway?  

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16 minutes ago, Joe Mammy said:

ATHX

Stemcell drug company. I've had 1000 shares of this for over 6 years, just sitting on it. Now it may be the wonder drug for corona. Fox news let the cat out of the bag today:

Link

It is still cheap, closed today around $4

tell us earlier next time

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11 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Yeah, I think there would (and should) be ENORMOUS outrage if they were even mentioned in a bailout.  They aren't paying taxes, aren't essential and in my one and ONLY experience with one in 2003, felt like I was getting 8 feet of rebar up my poophole upon exiting.  What a racket.  

So the only good thing about the cruise was the exit?

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18 minutes ago, Joe Mammy said:

ATHX

Stemcell drug company. I've had 1000 shares of this for over 6 years, just sitting on it. Now it may be the wonder drug for corona. Fox news let the cat out of the bag today:

Link

It is still cheap, closed today around $4

Think the symbol looks too much like Anthrax. Might scare people off. 

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Posted (edited)

After my sell of JPM yesterday I'm 100% cash today including 401K.  Made a little on inverse ETF today and sold before close.

As others have stated news cycle will be bad for markets in coming weeks and at a minimum I expect us to test prior lows.  I'll only be playing inverses unless there is a positive change in the news.

Agree with CNBC analysts that P/E ratios still not low enough to have reached a bottom.

 

Edited by TripItUp

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1 minute ago, bshell27 said:

I want to pull the trigger on this, but I bought at .307.  I don't need the money and I don't care to get my initial investment back and kick myself if this takes off some more.  Should I do this anyway?  

I struggled with this same decision for the last few days too.  In the same position as you are with the stock and the money I had in it.  Ultimately I made the decision the same way I do with a tough FF lineup decisions (Lol, crazy I know). Which way will I be more upset with myself if it doesn’t work out.  Here I figured the free roll while capping some up side would be the decision I’m least mad I made.  🤷🏻‍♂️

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1 hour ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Gotta be honest, I kind of feel like I want an injection of leronlimab just to get one. Maybe strengthen my immune system or grow an extra 14 inches to my johnson. 

I'm waiting for the tests to prove that it will be a good recreational drug first.

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1 minute ago, cosjobs said:

tell us earlier next time

You would have laughed at me. I found them when they were pioneering drugs for ulcerative colitis and crohns a long time ago. It has languished between $1-$3 for the entire time I've had it. It is just now gaining traction because of a Japanese company (Healios) exercising warrants 6 months early for 7M shares, an insider buy at $1.75 just a couple days ago. It could really explode, who knows? But they do have a FDA fast tracked respiratory drug that could save the world!

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14 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Good thing all of these brilliant companies put some of that extra money from an 11 year bull market and a tax cut gift to such good use... You know, like share buybacks, which have been on steroids for the last few years. I can now buy for cheaper than they did... Maybe they can sell to me down here to raise much needed capital.

You can bet that at least one company has been saving all that cash and is probably deploying it to good effect.  Maybe if Occidental goes belly up they'll drop enough for me to buy an A share.  It would have to be a big drop.

Which reminds me, I should also look at MKL - they are a little brother clone that has done pretty well over the years.

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34 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Being in the Restaurant biz my whole life I wouldn’t touch any stocks for them right now.  Lots of room down to go. Even if the world starts opening back up in May social distancing group gathering guidelines will almost certainly be in effect and will drastically affect the capacities of these restaurants. The restaurant industry has a long long difficult road ahead

Well BLMN is 75% off.  What are you thinking...90% off being a lot of room?  That would be a P/E of 5 if they only come back at 25% of previous earnings. 

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25 minutes ago, Joe Mammy said:

ATHX

Stemcell drug company. I've had 1000 shares of this for over 6 years, just sitting on it. Now it may be the wonder drug for corona. Fox news let the cat out of the bag today:

Link

It is still cheap, closed today around $4

Fake news. 

Proof - nothing good ever comes out of Cleveland.

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6 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

After my sell of JPM yesterday I'm 100% cash today including 401K.  Made a little on inverse ETF today and sold before close.

As others have stated news cycle will be bad for markets in coming weeks and at a minimum I expect us to test prior lows.  I'll only be playing inverses unless there is a positive change in the news.

 

You certainly have a big set!  I hope it works out for you and you crush it.  Any DOW you are targeting?

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Sand said:

You can bet that at least one company has been saving all that cash and is probably deploying it to good effect.  Maybe if Occidental goes belly up they'll drop enough for me to buy an A share.  It would have to be a big drop.

Which reminds me, I should also look at MKL - they are a little brother clone that has done pretty well over the years.

To be the devil's advocate, if any company was sitting on a years plus worth of cash, investors likely would have been clamoring for management to do something. Not to say you couldn't be under-levered waiting for this. 

Honestly, PE guys are probably hoping it goes down more. Call all their committed capital and go on a shopping spree. 

Edited by sporthenry

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

After my sell of JPM yesterday I'm 100% cash today including 401K.  Made a little on inverse ETF today and sold before close.

As others have stated news cycle will be bad for markets in coming weeks and at a minimum I expect us to test prior lows.  I'll only be playing inverses unless there is a positive change in the news.

 

My 403B is still all cash since the s&p was at 2800

I sold everything in my brokerage at the end of the day yesterday(including 4 airlines).

It isnt a ton, but literally my only holding right now is CYDY.

I would love one more nice red day tomorrow

Edited by ghostguy123

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

tell us earlier next time

Yeah man, that actually had a nice slow run up (if you can call it slow) before the past couple days.

1.18 on the 16th, 1.4....1.8......pause......then blast off on the 27th.

Could be a pump and dump now but it didn't have the typical pump and dump like that VVUS just did.

Edited by lod001

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20 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Well BLMN is 75% off.  What are you thinking...90% off being a lot of room?  That would be a P/E of 5 if they only come back at 25% of previous earnings. 

There are others here that are far more knowledgeable being that I’m a noob to the stock game, but from a business standpoint, I’d say there’s not an insignificant chance they don’t make it. And that’s just the reality for most restaurant brands right now, especially the longer this goes on. Restaurants are low margin business, volume is key. Volume is seriously going to be restricted for the short term future for sure. I’m scared to death for this industry right now.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

You certainly have a big set!  I hope it works out for you and you crush it.  Any DOW you are targeting?

I'm playing this day to day....but I'll be back in at 18K Dow, but not all the way in and likely pretty selective with what I buy...it won't be an index.   

14-16K Dow is the bottom when compared to the Great Recession P/E ratios...and there is  debate as to whether this pandemic is worse than the systemic failures of that recession.   There are logical arguments for a bottom lower than 14K based on PE ratios and potential world bank solvency issues as real estate issues could potentially escalate.

I also predict I'll be 100% in no later than Mid May and as early as Mid April.  I don't want to miss the ride up...even if it's not v-shaped.

 

 

Edited by TripItUp

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1 minute ago, dkp993 said:

There are others here that are far more knowledgeable being that I’m a noob to the stock game, but from a business standpoint, I’d say there’s not an insignificant chance they don’t make it. And that’s just the reality for most restaurant brands right now, especially the longer this goes on. Restaurants are low margin business, volume is key. Volume is seriously going to be restricted for the short term future for sure. I’m scared to death for this industry right now.

People are lazy, they are chomping at the bit to go back to restaurants. Most don’t count calories, save money or worry about theIr future. Case in point all the morons buying up TP, they will continue to throw away their money once this is over. Americans are lazy and sheepish.

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8 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

There are others here that are far more knowledgeable being that I’m a noob to the stock game, but from a business standpoint, I’d say there’s not an insignificant chance they don’t make it. And that’s just the reality for most restaurant brands right now, especially the longer this goes on. Restaurants are low margin business, volume is key. Volume is seriously going to be restricted for the short term future for sure. I’m scared to death for this industry right now.

Many are. 

Which is why there's money to be made. 

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4 minutes ago, CGRdrJoe said:

People are lazy, they are chomping at the bit to go back to restaurants. Most don’t count calories, save money or worry about theIr future. Case in point all the morons buying up TP, they will continue to throw away their money once this is over. Americans are lazy and sheepish.

:shrug:stocking up on tp might be the smartest thing some people do.

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1 minute ago, -OZ- said:

:shrug:stocking up on tp might be the smartest thing some people do.

I was far ahead of the game on buying TP than I was dumping stocks.

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13 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I'm playing this day to day....but I'll be back in at 18K Dow, but not all the way in and likely pretty selective with what I buy...it won't be an index.   

14-16K Dow is the bottom when compared to the Great Recession P/E ratios...and there is  debate as to whether this pandemic is worse than the systemic failures of that recession.   There are logical arguments for a bottom lower than 14K based on PE ratios and potential world bank solvency issues as real estate issues could potentially escalate.

I also predict I'll be 100% in no later than Mid May and as early as Mid April.  I don't want to miss the ride up...even if it's not v-shaped.

 

 

I'm with this.  I'm mostly back on the sidelines, but for my index funds that I just can't bear to touch.  I think I go in and buy with the rest of my cash somewhere in 16-18 range.  I think we have to get back there.  But who knows.

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11 minutes ago, CGRdrJoe said:

People are lazy, they are chomping at the bit to go back to restaurants. Most don’t count calories, save money or worry about theIr future. Case in point all the morons buying up TP, they will continue to throw away their money once this is over. Americans are lazy and sheepish.

Agreed, But that’s not the issue that concerns me. The concern will be restrictions on the size of gatherings allowed And for how long that goes on for. When things open back up they’re not gonna open back up 100% normal. I bet dollars to donuts they’re limiting gathering sizes for 30/60 or 90 days after.  Restaurants cannot survive on reduced volume load.  

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43 minutes ago, Joe Mammy said:

You would have laughed at me. I found them when they were pioneering drugs for ulcerative colitis and crohns a long time ago. It has languished between $1-$3 for the entire time I've had it. It is just now gaining traction because of a Japanese company (Healios) exercising warrants 6 months early for 7M shares, an insider buy at $1.75 just a couple days ago. It could really explode, who knows? But they do have a FDA fast tracked respiratory drug that could save the world!

Honestly, their results are good but I hope Leronlimab has better results. Not saying it wasn’t an improvement but I hope we see better than a 40% to 25% death rate improvement. 
 

Patients in the exploratory study were evaluated through 28 days for the primary clinical assessment and were further assessed through a one-year follow-up period. We announced the encouraging one year data in January of 2020. Data highlights from the trial include the following:

Lower mortality of 25% in the MultiStem treatment group vs. 40% in the placebo group;

40.2% higher ventilator-free (VF) days, (12.9 VF days in the MultiStem treatment group vs. 9.2 VF days for the placebo group);

27.2% higher ICU-free days, (10.3 days in MultiStem subjects vs. 8.1 days for subjects receiving placebo);

Rapid improvement in pulmonary function was observed among MultiStem treated subjects, with 45% of these patients achieving ventilator independence by study day 7 vs only 20%  placebo in the placebo group; 

In more severe ARDS patients (as evident from a prospectively defined analysis), the difference between MultiStem treatment and placebo was greater – 25% mortality in MultiStem group vs. 50% in placebo group, 14.6 VF days in MultiStem group vs. 8.0 VF days in placebo group, and 11.4 ICU-free days in MultiStem group versus 5.9 ICU-free days in placebo group; 

Day-365 Quality of Life (QoL) outcomes, assessed by the EQ-5D, were meaningfully better among all survivors who received MultiStem treatment compared to those who received placebo;

Within the prospectively defined group of patients with more severe ARDS, MultiStem treatment was associated with a markedly greater rate of survival and progression to functional independence at one year (i.e., self-care); and

MultiStem treatment was well tolerated in this very sick ARDS patient population, with no serious adverse events related to administration.

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4 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Agreed, But that’s not the issue that concerns me. The concern will be restrictions on the size of gatherings allowed And for how long that goes on for. When things open back up they’re not gonna open back up 100% normal. I bet dollars to donuts they’re limiting gathering sizes for 30/60 or 90 days after.  Restaurants cannot survive on reduced volume load.  

I own a company that relies on large gathering events, and sadly I have to agree with this.

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4 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

I own a company that relies on large gathering events, and sadly I have to agree with this.

Hang in there buddy, take advantage of this SBA forgivable loan program. 

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Quote

 

Avid Sports Bettor Forced To Gamble On Stock Market Like Real Degenerate

https://sports.theonion.com/avid-sports-bettor-forced-to-gamble-on-stock-market-lik-1842616280?fbclid=IwAR2-VvD1rtAFCij5x9gsLgWFT3vZo3y2Nm3BSHLJT3RTh-ZrZ0kXrMaTK-E

ALLENTOWN, PA—Worried that what was once a manageable vice had fallen into uncontrolled depravity, avid sports bettor Evan Laramie revealed Wednesday that he had been forced to gamble on the stock market like a real degenerate. “It’s one thing to lose three grand on an NBA parlay, but I never thought I’d have to wager on medical research companies and computer chip manufacturers to get my fix. I always thought those people were sick,” said Laramie, adding that ever since he’d fallen into this dark underworld, he has taken pains to hide his stock portfolio from his wife so she wouldn’t stage an intervention. “The rush I get from seeing the Dow Jones up 4% is unbelievable. Man, I really need baseball to come back so I can break out of this downward spiral. I almost blew my kid’s college fund buying Tesla stock. What have I been reduced to?” At press time, Laramie was donating $5,000 to his favorite local bookie to help them survive the pandemic.

 

 

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2 hours ago, [icon] said:

I moved a bit more in today.... now 70 IN / 30 Cash 
 
Models show us looking at ~15-20k people dying next week and possibly 60-80k the following week. I have to think that induces another push down... barring significant promise from treatments like CYDY and Chloroquine. 

exactly what I did. rebought what I sold yesterday

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PSA: Soon you'll all be able to officially own OTIS, thanks to the Raytheon/UTC merger.

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Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

PSA: Soon you'll all be able to officially own OTIS, thanks to the Raytheon/UTC merger.

All-#######-in

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Fauci just mentioned a monoclonal antibody as a possible treatment.  Leronlimab is a monoclonal antibody. 

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