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I'm going to exit 2/3s of my cydy position first thing.  Guaranteed it's going to plummet.  Will buy back cheaper.

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1 minute ago, The Lost One said:

Man, just getting started in investing, I'm always wondering how you guys figure out where to move your funds around and what % of it is right. 

Don't follow me.  I'm bargain hunting for quick gains.  Go find Todem's master list from a week ago and take positions in those companies.

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4 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

Man, just getting started in investing, I'm always wondering how you guys figure out where to move your funds around and what % of it is right. 

Witchcraft mostly.

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blmn up 12.5%, poised to shower in the sauce for a 3rd time in 3 weeks.

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25 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

blmn up 12.5%, poised to shower in the sauce for a 3rd time in 3 weeks.

Everything going to be limit up tomorrow morning:  shorts are going to get faces ripped off.   Im holding trades long BLMN mgm dal and even took a gamble on SPXL.

futures hit that 2880 level Mancini has been talking about and has gone sideways since.  He did say this was the level to take profits and open up shorts (he clarified earlier the chart would like to see 2930).

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This remdisivir stuff seems pretty dubious to me.  Apparently the guy that leaked the initial article has a history of trying to manipulate the market via well timed misleading article drops.  The other article notes some extremely severe and horrifically common side effects.

Quote

About one in four patients on the medicine experienced severe side effects, including multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome, septic shock, acute kidney injury and low blood pressure. Another 23% showed signs of liver damage on laboratory tests. Four patients had to stop receiving infusions of the drug entirely.

Now Gilead themselves are issuing press releases to try and stem the hype.  I know people love to comment on Facebook after skimming an article headline without reading the actual article, but are people really about to pour trillions into the stock market because they didn't click the link and read all the way to the bottom to the part where it basically says half of the people receiving the drug get organ damage?

I am tempted to throw down some puts on Gilead and/or the stocks that are rallying off of this news (or buy shares of the stuff that is falling based on it), but the market is acting so irrational right now I'm not sure if there will even be much of a pullback once they find out.

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Just running with the knowledge of how CYDY puts out good news on a test and then the stock pulls back shortly after, probably can expect the same thing for GILD here.  If Chet is right and there are problems with this test, it will pull back on that kind of news but the public will already have bought in first thing in the morning.

Could be a good play against, ive seen this movie before. 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

 

I am tempted to throw down some puts on Gilead and/or the stocks that are rallying off of this news (or buy shares of the stuff that is falling based on it), but the market is acting so irrational right now I'm not sure if there will even be much of a pullback once they find out.

Buy them shortly after market opens, good chance you can cash this.  Unless of course they come right back with some real news, then you could be screwed.

Edited by Jefferson the Caregiver

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In any event,  chet brought CYDY up in the Before Times so he thought they had value without COVID. If it does get hammered and you trust him then you get an opportunity. 

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19 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

How long after market opens will GILD peak before it starts to sell off?

10 min

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Also worth noting that none of the people in the study that just blew up the market were on a ventilator.

So "only" 2 of 125 patients in the study so far have died.  Which is probably about the normal death rate of coronavirus if we're not talking about people on a ventilator.

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Posted (edited)

AMC up 33% after hours?

Dont get me wrong, I would love for this reznivizeer stuff to work wonders, but this is out of hand.  Even if it keeps people from dying, it doesnt change how hard the economy will be hit.  The only thing it changes is how long.  That might only be a month difference maybe cause we all dang well know someone will come out with a med or a method that keeps people alive.

Things are not going to open up for quite some time yet overnight here stoNks are acting like everything opens up next week.

Edited by ghostguy123
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10 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

AMC up 33% after hours?

Dont get me wrong, I would love for this reznivizeer stuff to work wonders, but this is out of hand.  Even if it keeps people from dying, it doesnt change how hard the economy will be hit.  The only thing it changes is how long.  That might only be a month difference maybe cause we all dang well know someone will come out with a med or a method that keeps people alive.

Things are not going to open up for quite some time yet overnight here stoNks are acting like everything opens up next week.

Just goes to show you how big the market will pop when we finally do see the other side of this, or at least see it diminished significantly. Wouldn’t want to be on the sidelines then. 

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

This remdisivir stuff seems pretty dubious to me.  Apparently the guy that leaked the initial article has a history of trying to manipulate the market via well timed misleading article drops.  The other article notes some extremely severe and horrifically common side effects.

Be careful with this interpretation. In this compassionate use trial, the patients were very sick, with the majority on ventilators. The side effects could very possibly be (I believe likely) a result of COVID-19.

The below is cut from the the original publication. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016?query=featured_home

Remdesivir appears to have a favorable clinical safety profile, as reported on the basis of experience in approximately 500 persons, including healthy volunteers and patients treated for acute Ebola virus infection,18,19 and supported by our data (on file and shared with the World Health Organization [WHO]).

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While I'm super happy with the prospect of Remdesivir on the humanitarian side of things---(hell anything that can help keep the death toll of this virus down is a great thing)---I do worry that the markets are acting absolutely irrationally.   I haven't done any research--but my understanding is that it has done a really good job helping super sick patients recover--but do we know if it's effective in treating milder to moderate cases of covid?   I personally know 5 people in Southern California that have what would be categorized as "mild" to "moderate" cases of it--and it is absolutely kicking their butts.   One of the people I know is healthy and 17 years old--and she's literally had severe headaches, dizziness, insane night chills and insane pain in her chest/lung area for over 20 days.  She has had a chronic fever--and about 2 weeks ago--her mother got the same symptoms--and it's also kicking her butt.  

I don't think remdesivir is a vaccine that prevents the disease from spreading--and we know that this thing spreads like wildfire.  IIn regards to the markets--I'm getting worried again.  In regards to economic news and data--we had some of the worst metrics and data in history being reported--and relatively speaking--our markets barely reacted.  While I think remdesivir has potential--I just think that our markets were not processing the bad news--but they are absolutely over processing potentially good news.  The reality is--even if this drug keeps people alive--it's still a very contagious disease that knocks most people out that contract it for 2-4 weeks--and social distancing will still need to be implemented.  Don't get me wrong--I think it's great news--and I've always been bullish on our markets long term--but if the markets really go up 800+ points tomorrow on this--while only dropping 400-500pts when 5.2 million people filed for unemployment--that doesn't seem right.  With that said--if this drug brings us one step closer to conquering this virus--god bless it and god bless us all.  

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40 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

AMC up 33% after hours?

Dont get me wrong, I would love for this reznivizeer stuff to work wonders, but this is out of hand.  Even if it keeps people from dying, it doesnt change how hard the economy will be hit.  The only thing it changes is how long.  That might only be a month difference maybe cause we all dang well know someone will come out with a med or a method that keeps people alive.

Things are not going to open up for quite some time yet overnight here stoNks are acting like everything opens up next week.

While I don’t disagree with the sentiment, AMC isn’t a great company to follow at this point. It’s market cap is $250mn (well more now) and half owned by a Chinese company. So not a ton of float. The equity is acting like a call option and they announced a bond deal. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Also worth noting that none of the people in the study that just blew up the market were on a ventilator.

So "only" 2 of 125 patients in the study so far have died.  Which is probably about the normal death rate of coronavirus if we're not talking about people on a ventilator.

From the comments section of the stat article, I haven’t verified if it’s true:

It is useful to compare like to like; the population being addressed here are those who were sick enough to be hospitalized. In the US, there were 32,186 deaths and 104,039 hospitalizations, which indicates roughly a 30% mortality rate. If the mortality rate with Remdesivir is really only 2%, that would suggest a major improvement.

As many victims die outside the hospital, I’ll say 30% is too high.

Edited by Whyatt

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1 hour ago, Whyatt said:

Be careful with this interpretation. In this compassionate use trial, the patients were very sick, with the majority on ventilators. The side effects could very possibly be (I believe likely) a result of COVID-19.

The below is cut from the the original publication. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016?query=featured_home

Remdesivir appears to have a favorable clinical safety profile, as reported on the basis of experience in approximately 500 persons, including healthy volunteers and patients treated for acute Ebola virus infection,18,19 and supported by our data (on file and shared with the World Health Organization [WHO]).

Huh?  The study explicitly says that none of the patients were on ventilators.

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3 hours ago, The Lost One said:

Never heard of them but it's 52 week high was mid 30s, it's down in the mid teens now 

 

ALLY is one I like that seems like a similar situation.  I used to own some in the $29-33 range is now up in the $14's.  It had a bad day Thurs but seems to be bouncing back overnight. 

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the more I think about, the more likely I am to double up on CYDY if it takes a big hit friday morning

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58 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

the more I think about, the more likely I am to double up on CYDY if it takes a big hit friday morning

Are you gonna hold through open?

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Some days, it's best if you wake up early, go fishing and leave your stock portfolio alone.  I think tomorrow might be one of those days for me. 

 

Well, except I can't go fishing.  Or anywhere really.  Think I might just fo get morning drunk under a bridge. 

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4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Huh?  The study explicitly says that none of the patients were on ventilators.

Do you realize that we are discussing 2 different studies? Following the link:

During a median follow-up of 18 days, 36 patients (68%) had an improvement in oxygen-support class, including 17 of 30 patients (57%) receiving mechanical ventilation who were extubated.

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I took 40% of my investments and put them back into some funds this morning. Smart? dumb?

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There is absolutely risk that the market will shoot downward after this (or the next) surge. Not an expert and not trying to give any pro advice here, but the market is overbought right now... even Mancini is calling for short positions in the near future. 
 

That said, like @Todem said... time IN the market.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

syf also

I bought SYF and STOR earlier this week.   Warren Buffet April update article from Seeking Alpha.  Has a few charts of Buffet's holdings and picks by target gains and yield.  

STOR and SYF stand out in several charts.  Article shows a lot of dividend paying stocks in BRK.A and B.  Saw another article on SYF and STOR on Motley Fool.

Bought DFS as well.  

Edited by Jayrok
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19 minutes ago, Golf Guy 69 said:

Cydy up to 2.48 premarket.  7.36%

 

I will never understand this stuff.

Congratulations. You get it!

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20 minutes ago, Golf Guy 69 said:

Cydy up to 2.48 premarket.  7.36%

 

I will never understand this stuff.

It was 1k shares traded, meaningless

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1 hour ago, Steeler said:

Does anyone have a link to Todem's list of stocks from a few days/weeks back? 

ETA - here it is:  https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/673466-stock-thread/?do=findComment&comment=22608644

@Todem if you have the time would be interested to see which ones you still see great value in VS ones that have run up enough during this bounce back you may hold off for now. Appreciate the input as always. 

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Sell at the pop or thinking we will be in for a very green day today ?

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Mancini: 

"As usual, price comes before news. I posted a triangle setup in $SPX, and Gilead news hit and broke it out to 2855 1st target. If it continues, 2930 is next up - strong confluence of resistance there (61.8% fib and trendline connecting Mar 3 & 4 highs). Good spot for a cool-off"

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10 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Mancini: 

"As usual, price comes before news. I posted a triangle setup in $SPX, and Gilead news hit and broke it out to 2855 1st target. If it continues, 2930 is next up - strong confluence of resistance there (61.8% fib and trendline connecting Mar 3 & 4 highs). Good spot for a cool-off"

Will Meade @realwillmeade

I still think S&P tests $2900 today completing right shoulder of a huge bearish head and shoulders on a monthly chart then we make a new low in May. The market has fully priced in reopening of the economy and curve flattening, problem is when the economy opens it will be ugly

Bluedeer Capital @BluedeerC

ES has traded in a 25 point range off of last eve's high at 2885 (to 2860), in what is setting up to be Bull Flag that should resolve to the upside probably during the first hour of trading, with an upside target of 2900, and possibly higher to test 2925, which represents the 62% recovery retracement zone of the entire Feb- Mar decline. Only a decline that breaks 2830 will trigger initial signals that the 2885 high is actually an exhaustion high as well. 2850/45 is important support if taken out, will point to 2833/30

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4 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

soooo, who is buying May 15 GILD puts?

:popcorn:

I was seriously thinking about it but also was counting on it opening higher.  Not doing anything right now.

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On 3/27/2020 at 1:40 PM, Blue Dot Orange Dot said:

Sold Apr 7.50 puts for 1.70. Don’t mind taking the stock at a cost basis of 5.80 or collecting the premium if it jumps back up in a few weeks. 

Looks like these will expire today and I'll collect the premium. Didn't make as much as I could have given the current price but I'll never complain about making 22% in a few weeks.

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1 minute ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

CYDY hanging in there, could have been a worse open I think.

 

Yep I was ready to dump half of mine but holding off for now.

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2 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

CYDY hanging in there, could have been a worse open I think.

 

There have been a lot of larger lots looking to buy in this range.

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Posted (edited)

Hodling CYDY. 

In DFS in mid 33s
In PEO @ 9.33

Edited by [icon]

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15 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

I was seriously thinking about it but also was counting on it opening higher.  Not doing anything right now.

I took the hook

May 15 - $80.00 - $4.40

:popcorn:

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2 hours ago, Payne said:

I took 40% of my investments and put them back into some funds this morning. Smart? dumb?

If they were mutual funds, you won't get into them until after the close today so won't be participating in this "rally" (if it holds). Just an FYI.

As to your question, entirely depends on your personal situation.

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Todem said:

I was just on a conference call with Bob Dole head equity strategist of Nuveen (formally with Blackrock). This is guy very similar to me. He also strongly believes (as well as I have been saying) the bottom was put in on March 23rd. Again that was the back the truck up moment. No V shape recovery.....this will take a while. 10-18 months till we are fully functioning and getting past the enormous self induced economic damage that has been done. Some industries will disappear. Some will struggle before they finally make it back and some will brush it off. Pretty simple. And I agree. 

We are now in the second phase of the bear market and it will be choppy and whiplash for a little while. The third phase will be another dip like we keep talking about and a chance for those who panicked to get back in......this is the roller coaster image I posted way back. We had that second climb (this 30% rebound from the bottom) and now we will have a less dramatic drop on the ride. I am thinking between 20,500 - 21.500 for that second drop 10-12%. Could it be deeper? Yeah of course....but I think those March 23rd lows are history. That was pure capitulation and pan panic. The Vix was 85!!!! Look at it now. 

Anyway. That is my market commentary today. 

Again this is why you can’t let your emotions direct or dictate your investment decisions. If the money was earmarked for retirement.....you simply must ride out the storms on your long journey. You can’t jump ship.....because the ship will sail away on you. You never will now when to get back in. It happens fast. Anyway this has been discussed ad nausea. 

Be well.

I'm going with this commentary 

Edited by Freak Show
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CYDY presenting at 12:30pm Eastern, so in about 2 hours. Link goes to registration for livestream.

Quote

Welcome ! To register for this exclusive online conference, please enter your details below. For those who can’t attend our live session, we’ll send you a video of the presentations. Details: - You can join our session by using a Mac, PC or a mobile device.

AGENDA: 12:30 EST - CytoDyn, Inc (OTC: CYDY) Dr. Nader Pourhassan, Ph.D. Expanded Q & A session will follow the presentation. We look forward to your questions and participation!

You can submit questions.

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5 hours ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Are you gonna hold through open?

yes I did. Not so bad with all the headwinds its had this week.

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1 hour ago, Lacey said:

Sell at the pop or thinking we will be in for a very green day today ?

Only thing I might sell is Wells Fargo.

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