Stock Thread

[-OZ- 7,361]

3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yeah on Portnoy I am not a fan of the guy but as others have said I don't see how what he is doing is any different than what TV analysts are doing when constantly reading off stocks they bought, etc.

And it's definitely nowhere NEAR as bad as the chat room guys that throw up ads on FB to attract new investors to their room where they buy a low float stock, let their followers pump it up, and then dump it on the very people that were paying them for guidance.  If THOSE people aren't getting into it with the SEC for that, no way Portnoy should.  At least he is upfront that he's just trading and doing so with crappy companies that he knows little about.

I don't know if any of you are in the choose FI and fatFIRE FB groups or follow the podcast, but this has been a major annoyance there lately. The groups are rooted in the broad based index fund / JL Collins school of investing. These guys come in, talk about this one hot stock, hoping to get some hype going. I'm sure they do it elsewhere but I don't follow many other financial groups. 

I don't particularly mind if people use their own platforms, there's some envy for sure, but it's a free country. Just don't use others groups for stuff that doesn't belong.

[Steeler 2,616]

9 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I know what I'm having for dinner tonight

Bonefish for me

[-OZ- 7,361]

3 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

You're right, it probably wouldn't have an impact at first. But longer-term, it could. I mean with his following, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But if things go sideways, a lot of folks will be bagholding his ####. I'm just all for greater disclosure and transparency. I think if folks realized that he's making hundreds of thousands off them, they may not be as happy. Or maybe they are just dumb. 

I do think his comments on PENN, especially when he first started, seemed to be in more of a grey area. 

That's how you fight it if you want to. 

But good luck getting near the same publicity by "outing" his scheme.

[-OZ- 7,361]

5 minutes ago, Steeler said:

Bonefish for me

We just shopped at Kroger.

[sporthenry 1,323]

1 minute ago, -OZ- said:

That's how you fight it if you want to. 

But good luck getting near the same publicity by "outing" his scheme.

I mean I think if you were forced to disclose stocks you talk about when you buy and sell, that would help. I worked at a bank and I couldn't even buy any of the stocks that anyone on my team covered nor if the bank was involved with anything with them. Then you have the wild, wild west on social media. 

It would probably lead to less investors talking specific stocks. Oh well, in my experience, they only talk specific stocks to benefit themselves anyways. Probably a pipe dream but just seems like a major inequity in the market. I suppose I shouldn't care that much since I'm not dealing in the stocks he talks about. But then folks will come crying to the Fed or complain about Wall Street that it's rigged. 

[sporthenry 1,323]

4 hours ago, CR69 said:

You're 100% right that the sportsbooks are a tiny fraction of the total income for casinos. The market is also similar to weed in that it's very fragmented with completely different regulations for each state. Hell, right now there's only one company approved in Oregon to offer mobile sports betting. 

And now it's up 7% since I bought my puts 🤦‍♂️

I ended up shorting some more. Almost top-ticked it, for now at least. While puts obviously went down, the b/e on the near-dated stuff wasn't even that great so figured I'll just short at $37.20. Is a casino stock that doesn't even own it own properties going to get back to ATH in the middle of a pandemic when it was closed for the past 2 months?

[-OZ- 7,361]

2 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

I mean I think if you were forced to disclose stocks you talk about when you buy and sell, that would help. I worked at a bank and I couldn't even buy any of the stocks that anyone on my team covered nor if the bank was involved with anything with them. Then you have the wild, wild west on social media. 

It would probably lead to less investors talking specific stocks. Oh well, in my experience, they only talk specific stocks to benefit themselves anyways. Probably a pipe dream but just seems like a major inequity in the market. I suppose I shouldn't care that much since I'm not dealing in the stocks he talks about. But then folks will come crying to the Fed or complain about Wall Street that it's rigged. 

I think the only way to prevent it would be to prohibit selling a stock within 30 days or whatever of when you discuss it publicly. 

[ConstruxBoy 851]

Added more PANW. Still a decent amount below it's FV, IMO

[SFBayDuck 6,828]

1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

I know many people like the dividend aristocrats. I definitely see the value when you're in retirement. It could make sense in this environment. 

That's kind of what I've been doing in my Roth, which is the one retirement account I've done any trading in.  Over the past month, I've added holdings of XOM (7.4%), T (7.1%), PM (6.6%), PFE (4.3%), KHC (4.9%), JPM (3.6%), and PEO (7%).  Not all "aristocrats", but it's partly TODEM's thinking of if we trade pretty much sideways for the next 6-12 months, then you're at least getting some yield.  Now some of those dividends could be cut or suspended - I own TAP which suspended their 2020 dividends back on May 22nd. And of course I have some CYDY and a few other more speculative plays.

 

[JetMaxx 978]

Out of BLMN for a 6% return today. 

[song 157]

21 hours ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

Oh I agree.   I am a bullish long term investor but I do like to hedge my bets with some profit taking.  Besides that--I like to use that money from profit taking to buy on dips or to re-balance my portfolio.  I think that the buying and quick flipping of bloomin' is the proper play for that particular stock--as the strategy serves a purpose (that stock just shows a tendency to bounce around within a range--so buy at the low end of that range and sell at the medium to high end of it).  While I haven't participated in that play--I do think it's a sound one and I firmly believe that the stock will give those of whom who bought it in the 11's a chance to get out at a profit fairly soon.  

I'm pretty bearish on covid for the short and medium term for the markets. I'm willing to disclose this now (I told @chet and @fantasycurse42 about this a long time ago and they can verify for those of whom don't believe me)--but i am of the belief that covid 19 was evolved/manipulated in the Wuhan virology laboratory.   I'm disclosing this now to the masses because a few days ago (many weeks after I told Chet and fantasycurse about it) Bret Weinstein went on the Joe Rogan podcast and touched upon it.   The Cliff notes version is that there is a very good chance that the virus evolved as a process of "gain of function" research gone wrong.  There is a scientist named Ralph Baric from UNC that was working for the NIH during the Obama administration to specifically conduct "gain of function" research on coronaviruses.  This process involves enhancing a virus by adding things to/modifying/or proactively evolving a virus by putting it in different animals/tissues and seeing how it evolves differently.   The idea is that if you can modify/evolve the virus faster than nature can--you will have more time to create a vaccine for that eventuality.  However--the risk is that you could have an escape from the laboratory.  The Obama administration cut funding to Baric's gain of function research to coronavirus around 2014-2015--and his next move was then to take the research to Wuhan where he taught the Chinese/International scientists everything.  He even published a paper with the wuhan scientists in 2015 about a new corona virus. They have since modified and edited the paper as listed on the top--but the original version of this paper was released by Baric and other scientists shortly after having to move research to Wuhan.  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4797993/.        

In any case--the two big takeaways from this are that there is a very good chance that a US scientist was a major player in evolving the virus into what it is.   The same scientist Baric also signed a deal with Gilead months after taking the research to Wuhan--and of course Gilead makes Remdesivir.   This is why I believe our government was so quick to endorse and jump on the Remdesirv bandwagon almost immediately.  Basically---my concerns on covid are this:  people don't need to be hospitalized or dying at a very high rate for it to effect some business sectors.  Secondly--I think that as more gets learned about how Covid 'came to be"--it could lead to some geo-political turmoil.  You see how our administration goes back and forth between how they blame China (and make no mistake--China was complicit in being dishonest about the extent of the pandemic there)---but China could very well throw the US under the bus by mentioning Baric.  In any case--I do think that we will get passed Covid in a year or two---but I do think there will be obstacles along the way.   I am of a belief that it is a mutated/engineered virus and I think that it can have a tendency to mutate even more quickly as a result of it being manipulated.    This--along with the geopolitical risks of the root of the virus getting released--gives me some market bearishness for the short and medium term.   I don't know how our markets react if this is proven true and if so--when the story spreads. That's the only reason why I tend to be a bit more careful than some of the others in here in regards what my investments are. 

 

Here is a link to Rogan talking with Weinstein about covid and his thoughts on how it originated. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQLF4DUSXGs

Here is a link to science magazine to where 54 NIH scientists got fired for taking money from foreign governments. Out of the 54 firings 93% of them were taking money from the Chinese. 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/fifty-four-scientists-have-lost-their-jobs-result-nih-probe-foreign-ties

 

 

thanks.  i don't want to pursue this here, but if you could post this in the gov. response to coronavirus thread i think it would be of value.

[Slapdash 16,190]

3 hours ago, -OZ- said:

Why dividend producing now? Is there just not the growth potential in stock prices?  

I don't mind a dividend in a good value stock, but I've generally not sought the dividend.

A lot of what @ConstruxBoy said. It's really hard to buy into things at all time highs while being very concerned about COVID second wave. I think Powell has done a great job and expect there to be significant backdrop making it not comfortable to be in cash or short.  So the more research I do, the more I like sectors like energy and financials that have lagged and pay nice dividends (for now)

Also just have a lot of cash piling up that would normally be spent on vacations or sports...

 

[CR69 918]

36 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

I ended up shorting some more. Almost top-ticked it, for now at least. While puts obviously went down, the b/e on the near-dated stuff wasn't even that great so figured I'll just short at $37.20. Is a casino stock that doesn't even own it own properties going to get back to ATH in the middle of a pandemic when it was closed for the past 2 months?

Yeah my puts have dropped about 20% on PENN lol. Just didn't think it would continue running up but I underestimated the power of Portnoy I guess lol. 

I've started avoiding shorter term options because every time I've tried it didn't work out for me. Then again the market has also run up more than I thought it would. Seems like I have a trend here...

[CR69 918]

@sporthenry

A theory I'm working on is casino stocks with high Macau exposure (Wynn and LVS) are being discounted right now because of the low revenues and severe travel restrictions from China which makes sense. But knowing how much better they're now handling this than we are, do you think those revenues are more likely to come back quicker than the companies that are heavily weighed towards the US market? Thinking when the bottom drops out on casino stocks in a month or so I'll sell my puts and dump them into long calls on those two. Thoughts?

[stbugs 2,273]

WTF happened? All I see is red. I’m up 1% overall today now. My kids will disown me and my wife will beat me. I can’t live on 1% a day.

OK, all joking aside are SPACs dead now? They’ve been getting whacked. Was it all really due to some conference call for FMCI? I mean did they have a slide they forgot to delete about how SPACs are for crap companies to milk investors or something?

Edited June 23 by stbugs

[CGRdrJoe 3,306]

Can we close at 4.50

[beef 1,809]

Someone sure is trying to buy these NKLAW (warrants) up.  I'm still holding out.

[-OZ- 7,361]

14 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

A lot of what @ConstruxBoy said. It's really hard to buy into things at all time highs while being very concerned about COVID second wave. I think Powell has done a great job and expect there to be significant backdrop making it not comfortable to be in cash or short.  So the more research I do, the more I like sectors like energy and financials that have lagged and pay nice dividends (for now)

Also just have a lot of cash piling up that would normally be spent on vacations or sports...

 

I think I need to buy more VPU and QCLN. 

2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

WTF happened? I’ll I see is red. I’m up 1% overall today now. My kids will disown me and my wife will beat me. I can’t live on 1% a day.

OK, all joking aside are SPACs dead now? They’ve been getting whacked. Was it all really due to some conference call for FMCI? I mean did they have a slide they forgot to delete about how SPACs are for crap companies to milk investors or something?

Lol.

I'll live quite well on 1%, or 0.5% daily. 🍸🥃

[The Ref 4,215]

Sorry if this was mentioned but CYDY was mentioned on fox and freinds this morning as a potential drug 
 

the mention was at 18:40
 

https://youtu.be/ksBZTg-AO2s

 

@chet

[-OZ- 7,361]

This won't affect anything... Right?

Wells Fargo estimates the rebalance into bonds could be the largest in six years.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/23/theres-a-wave-of-selling-estimated-to-be-in-the-billions-thats-about-to-hit-the-stock-market.html

[ex-ghost 476]

12 minutes ago, The Ref said:

Sorry if this was mentioned but CYDY was mentioned on fox and freinds this morning as a potential drug 
 

the mention was at 18:40
 

https://youtu.be/ksBZTg-AO2s

 

@chet

It is happening....

[djmich 790]

Just now, ex-ghost said:

It is happening....

Honestly surprised it hasn't popped more...still way under the radar.

[Bluto Blutarsky 691]

13 minutes ago, The Ref said:

Sorry if this was mentioned but CYDY was mentioned on fox and freinds this morning as a potential drug 
 

the mention was at 18:40
 

https://youtu.be/ksBZTg-AO2s

 

@chet

 

 

I can't wait to hear how Trump will pronounce Leronlimab.  It's going to be hilarious 

[stbugs 2,273]

58 minutes ago, CGRdrJoe said:

Can we close at 4.50

Made $3 on my 100 share purchase today after finally dumping my LK. Felt weird not have that -90% gain at the bottom of my list. It’s like it never happened. I’ve got more CYDY, just realized there’s no need to have money in something that could be untradeable soon.

Edited June 23 by stbugs

[Chaz McNulty 345]

31 minutes ago, The Ref said:

Sorry if this was mentioned but CYDY was mentioned on fox and freinds this morning as a potential drug 
 

the mention was at 18:40
 

https://youtu.be/ksBZTg-AO2s

 

@chet

Heh Heh.  Fox said Leronlimab.

[BassNBrew 9,096]

7 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

This won't affect anything... Right?

Wells Fargo estimates the rebalance into bonds could be the largest in six years.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/23/theres-a-wave-of-selling-estimated-to-be-in-the-billions-thats-about-to-hit-the-stock-market.html

I didn't at the tail end of March when the rebalancing was in the other direction.  But we were hopeful it would

[sporthenry 1,323]

51 minutes ago, CR69 said:

Yeah my puts have dropped about 20% on PENN lol. Just didn't think it would continue running up but I underestimated the power of Portnoy I guess lol. 

I've started avoiding shorter term options because every time I've tried it didn't work out for me. Then again the market has also run up more than I thought it would. Seems like I have a trend here...

 

48 minutes ago, CR69 said:

@sporthenry

A theory I'm working on is casino stocks with high Macau exposure (Wynn and LVS) are being discounted right now because of the low revenues and severe travel restrictions from China which makes sense. But knowing how much better they're now handling this than we are, do you think those revenues are more likely to come back quicker than the companies that are heavily weighed towards the US market? Thinking when the bottom drops out on casino stocks in a month or so I'll sell my puts and dump them into long calls on those two. Thoughts?

Yeah, I was even in June puts that expired last week for a month and that was too short of a timeframe. So went into Oct and Jan. But just threw a few on $35P weekly since today's move seemed overextended. I mean, stock up 16% but don't worry, everything is priced in. But I agree with you. Unless you're tailing unusual option activity, short-term options are very difficult. 

But I don't have a strong view on Macau. I never looked into it that much. If that is your thinking, I'd probably just do a pair trade now. Like sell short PENN to buy LVS and MGM to buy WYNN or something along those lines. Can scale it as things move but seems like timing will be tough to get the US based casinos to drop unless you think they'll all drop a similar amount. But could short PENN, and use 30% of the proceeds to buy some LVS so you have some hedge and then manage it as time goes on. 

[fantasycurse42 8,290]

Gold the rock is either heading back to 1675-1700 or heading to 1850-1920... Don't know the direction, but I am confident it does challenge it's old ATH within 12 months. Once that happens, I think GOLD goes into the low to mid $30's.

GOLD & NEM have been trailing GDX in the last few weeks, but that is to be expected. GDX is up about 20% YTD, while GOLD is up 39% YTD. 

[pecorino 1,876]

4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Nikola!!

Selling those puts were indeed easy money. Even with the NERV incident, Bossman was on to something. 

[FreeBaGeL 8,039]

13 minutes ago, pecorino said:

Selling those puts were indeed easy money. Even with the NERV incident, Bossman was on to something. 

Yeah the thing that didn't work out with NERV is that the IV stayed high (waiting on the phase 3 results) so there wasn't really any chance to take profits unless you were OK taking very small profits (5ish percent).

With NKLA the put premiums have plummeted by like 60% already so if you sold puts you can lock in some massive profits after just a couple days if you don't want to wait it out and risk a big drop.

Personally I'm on warrants not puts so I am waiting it out.  They have risen a ton (up to $40 from cost basis of $18.8) but I am holding for the big payoff if I'm able to cash convert them to shares in early July.  It would be heartbreaking to see those profits disappear (have almost 1000 warrants) but I went into this trade thinking of it as a sports bet and willing to lose it all, so what the hell.

[cosjobs 14,458]

5 hours ago, kevzilla said:

Kinda want to climb on board TVIX for one last ride. LOL.

Tips 40

[CR69 918]

1 hour ago, sporthenry said:

 

Yeah, I was even in June puts that expired last week for a month and that was too short of a timeframe. So went into Oct and Jan. But just threw a few on $35P weekly since today's move seemed overextended. I mean, stock up 16% but don't worry, everything is priced in. But I agree with you. Unless you're tailing unusual option activity, short-term options are very difficult. 

But I don't have a strong view on Macau. I never looked into it that much. If that is your thinking, I'd probably just do a pair trade now. Like sell short PENN to buy LVS and MGM to buy WYNN or something along those lines. Can scale it as things move but seems like timing will be tough to get the US based casinos to drop unless you think they'll all drop a similar amount. But could short PENN, and use 30% of the proceeds to buy some LVS so you have some hedge and then manage it as time goes on. 

I've never done a pair trade but looks like I have some reading to do. Any info on particular you'd recommend? Seems like it is PERFECT for what I'm wanting to accomplish...

[cosjobs 14,458]

5 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Fidelity wants a $50 foreign trade fee.  First time I've ever seen this.

Yes. I've been accumulating KSFT and Fidelity nicks me $50 on each transaction.

I checked Ameritrade and they only charge 6.95, so I accumulating in that account now. Also getting 500 shares a whack to keep the cost percentage down.

I'm pretty high on Kingsoft, as it looks like they might be the China cloud leader. Also, I kind of like diversifying in some stocks not funded in USD, in caew we ewver have some reckoning on all this stimulus. Also like BABA for that. Is CYDY a Canadian company?

[ex-ghost 476]

1 minute ago, cosjobs said:

Yes. I've been accumulating KSFT and Fidelity nicks me $50 on each transaction.

I checked Ameritrade and they only charge 6.95, so I accumulating in that account now. Also getting 500 shares a whack to keep the cost percentage down.

I'm pretty high on Kingsoft, as it looks like they might be the China cloud leader. Also, I kind of like diversifying in some stocks not funded in USD, in caew we ewver have some reckoning on all this stimulus. Also like BABA for that. Is CYDY a Canadian company?

Close, but it is Vancouver South.

[matuski 4,857]

2 hours ago, beef said:

Someone sure is trying to buy these NKLAW (warrants) up.  I'm still holding out.

Ride or die for me.

eta - tempting to take the 30% but ill roll the dice.

Edited June 23 by matuski

[Acrobat7 129]

1 hour ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Gold the rock is either heading back to 1675-1700 or heading to 1850-1920... Don't know the direction, but I am confident it does challenge it's old ATH within 12 months. Once that happens, I think GOLD goes into the low to mid $30's.

GOLD & NEM have been trailing GDX in the last few weeks, but that is to be expected. GDX is up about 20% YTD, while GOLD is up 39% YTD. 

Check out FNV as well. Maybe also PLZL.

[rascal 1,668]

I didn't go into cydy when it was 3.50 as I thought it was risky.  Idiot.  So now I'm looking buying in at 4.50.  This is not winning.

Edited June 23 by rascal

[CR69 918]

5 minutes ago, rascal said:

I didn't go into cydy when it was 3.50 as I thought it was risky.  Idiot.  So now I'm looking buying in at 4.50.  This is not winning.

Same here. 🤦‍♂️

[JetMaxx 978]

5 minutes ago, rascal said:

I didn't go into cydy when it was 3.50 as I thought it was risky.  Idiot.  So now I'm looking buying in at 4.50.  This is not winning.

I’m in at 4.50 in the morning. If it rolls a $1 now will be a distant memory

[chet 4,238]

1 hour ago, cosjobs said:

Is CYDY a Canadian company?

No.  They're based in Vancouver, WA.

[ex-ghost 476]

20 minutes ago, rascal said:

I didn't go into cydy when it was 3.50 as I thought it was risky.  Idiot.  So now I'm looking buying in at 4.50.  This is not winning.

Same, got in at $4.48 and $4.42. What a bargain!

[eaganwildcats 646]

9 minutes ago, chet said:

No.  They're based in Vancouver, WA.

Personal capital has them tagged as international fwiw. Took me multiple minutes to figure out why my international exposure was way higher than expected. 

[chet 4,238]

Just now, eaganwildcats said:

Personal capital has them tagged as international fwiw. Took me multiple minutes to figure out why my international exposure was way higher than expected. 

Interesting.  Don't know why they'd have that other than if they confused Vancouver, BC with Vancouver, WA.

Glad to hear it was the reason for your high international exposure and hope it grows to make you mostly international!

[unckeyherb 1,249]

28 minutes ago, JetMaxx said:

I’m in at 4.50 in the morning. If it rolls a $1 now will be a distant memory

I sold a bit at 4.30 yesterday when I was at a cost basis of about 2.50.  Was expecting a bit of a pull back to buy back in, but Resigned to buying back in at 4.50 if I have to.  Tried to get cute.  Sometimes it backfires.  Feel like it’s gonna blow soon, so this will, like you said, be a distant memory.  

[Getzlaf15 10,113]

41 minutes ago, rascal said:

I didn't go into cydy when it was 3.50 as I thought it was risky.  Idiot.  So now I'm looking buying in at 4.50.  This is not winning.

 

35 minutes ago, CR69 said:

Same here. 🤦‍♂️

 

34 minutes ago, JetMaxx said:

I’m in at 4.50 in the morning. If it rolls a $1 now will be a distant memory

I got it April 2.   I've had 5-6 purchases from $2.23 to $3.24.   My average is $2.75.   I was pretty antsy that I thought I might have missed the boat.  Now I'm up 63%.

Would be awesome if we were up another 63% in two months for you guys.

The day I got in at $2.23, there was wild swings up and down from $2 to $3.25.  We haven't seen those wild swings on this burst up.  Makes me believe that some really heavy investors have been buying since last Wednesday and think this is going a lot higher.

Edited June 23 by Getzlaf15

[chet 4,238]

4 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

I got it April 2.   I've had 5-6 purchases from $2.23 to $3.24.   My average is $2.75.   I was pretty antsy that I thought I might have missed the boat.  Now I'm up 63%.

Would be awesome if we were up another 63% in two months for you guys.

The day I got in at $2.23, there was wild swings up and down from $2 to $3.25.  We haven't seen those wild swings on this burst up.  Makes me believe that some really heavy investors have been buying since last Wednesday and think this is going a lot higher.

FWIW, I've been told by some sell side brokers that at least one institution is building a position.  If so, that should help with the volatility and render the short selling crew inert.

[djmich 790]

20 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

I sold a bit at 4.30 yesterday when I was at a cost basis of about 2.50.  Was expecting a bit of a pull back to buy back in, but Resigned to buying back in at 4.50 if I have to.  Tried to get cute.  Sometimes it backfires.  Feel like it’s gonna blow soon, so this will, like you said, be a distant memory.  

My money aside, I'm pulling for you guys, know the feeling getting in somewhere other than the ground floor.

Here's to us all arriving at the penthouse

[sporthenry 1,323]

4 hours ago, The Ref said:

Sorry if this was mentioned but CYDY was mentioned on fox and freinds this morning as a potential drug 
 

the mention was at 18:40
 

https://youtu.be/ksBZTg-AO2s

 

@chet

https://twitter.com/MontefioreNYC/status/1275528347578138626

Didn't see this posted either. But seems to be going mainstream.

[fantasycurse42 8,290]

Had to look at CYDY in my history. My first buy was 12/6 for .295... Luckily, I built most of my position in December.

Chet, my internet hero 😊

[fantasycurse42 8,290]

Feel like it’s due for a pullback (kinda has to be), but whatever... gotta think there are some shorts on this thing vomiting themselves to sleep this last week