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Aaron Hernandez current dynasty value (1 Viewer)

Bruce Hammond said:
comfortably numb said:
just hosed a staffer!!!

Hot Route Fantasy Football TradeCheryl Rodrigues gave up:$2.00 in blind bidding

Anthony Borbely gave up:

Hernandez, Aaron FA TE
Click to expand...
Hey Conf Numb, are you letting the wifey run the team these days? I remember PMing with her here one night, a bunch of years ago. Cool lady. Tell her I said hi!

Oh, and IMO staffer hosed you for 2 bucks. :D Plus he freed up a roster spot to find the next Arian Foster while you've used one up for nothing, until you realize AH is as likely to play another down in the NFL as I am, and you drop him.

Bruce
Click to expand...
What league was this?

I don't remember playing with someone named Bruce? unless you used a dif name?

There is another CcomfortablyNumb on this board.

 
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
Average FBG ranking is 32. Thatis unreal. He's out of football for at least 2 years. 1 for the trial to unfold. 2nd for minimum NFL suspension. There is a better than 90% chance he's out for at least 5 years with the gun charges alone. There is roughly an 80% chance he never sees a field again, outside of the inmates vs guards league.

 
comfortably numb said:
Bruce Hammond said:
comfortably numb said:
just hosed a staffer!!!

Hot Route Fantasy Football TradeCheryl Rodrigues gave up:$2.00 in blind bidding

Anthony Borbely gave up:

Hernandez, Aaron FA TE
Click to expand...
Hey Conf Numb, are you letting the wifey run the team these days? I remember PMing with her here one night, a bunch of years ago. Cool lady. Tell her I said hi!

Oh, and IMO staffer hosed you for 2 bucks. :D Plus he freed up a roster spot to find the next Arian Foster while you've used one up for nothing, until you realize AH is as likely to play another down in the NFL as I am, and you drop him.

Bruce
Click to expand...
What league was this?

I don't remember playing with someone named Bruce? unless you used a dif name?

There is another CcomfortablyNumb on this board.
Click to expand...
No, we weren't in a league together. just here. I was just Couch Potato then, before becoming staff. Pretty sure it was your wife. Same comfortably Numb, you've had that avatar forever. You have a hispanic name yes? C - - - - ?

 
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jurb26 said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
Average FBG ranking is 32. Thatis unreal. He's out of football for at least 2 years. 1 for the trial to unfold. 2nd for minimum NFL suspension. There is a better than 90% chance he's out for at least 5 years with the gun charges alone. There is roughly an 80% chance he never sees a field again, outside of the inmates vs guards league.
Click to expand...
MA state average is 90% for murder trials . So at best its a 10% chance to beat the rap before the NFL would take action.The FBG rankings should take a cue from the Pats Pro Shop

 
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HellToupee said:
jurb26 said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
Average FBG ranking is 32. Thatis unreal. He's out of football for at least 2 years. 1 for the trial to unfold. 2nd for minimum NFL suspension. There is a better than 90% chance he's out for at least 5 years with the gun charges alone. There is roughly an 80% chance he never sees a field again, outside of the inmates vs guards league.
Click to expand...
MA state average is 90% for murder trials . So at best its a 10% chance to beat the rap before the NFL would take action.
Click to expand...
I amend my ratios to 95% he's out at least 5 years, neglecting what the NFL will do, and 90% never again. Thanks for the info.

Oh, and I think I'm being optimistic towards his NFL future BTW.

 
Bruce Hammond said:
comfortably numb said:
Bruce Hammond said:
comfortably numb said:
just hosed a staffer!!!

Hot Route Fantasy Football TradeCheryl Rodrigues gave up:$2.00 in blind bidding

Anthony Borbely gave up:

Hernandez, Aaron FA TE
Click to expand...
Hey Conf Numb, are you letting the wifey run the team these days? I remember PMing with her here one night, a bunch of years ago. Cool lady. Tell her I said hi!

Oh, and IMO staffer hosed you for 2 bucks. :D Plus he freed up a roster spot to find the next Arian Foster while you've used one up for nothing, until you realize AH is as likely to play another down in the NFL as I am, and you drop him.

Bruce
Click to expand...
What league was this?

I don't remember playing with someone named Bruce? unless you used a dif name?

There is another CcomfortablyNumb on this board.
Click to expand...
No, we weren't in a league together. just here. I was just Couch Potato then, before becoming staff. Pretty sure it was your wife. Same comfortably Numb, you've had that avatar forever. You have a hispanic name yes?
Click to expand...
ahhh, yes PMing makes sense i thought you said IMing...via AOL

Yea she had an account for a few weeks here.

I have a Portguese sounding name NOT hispanic!! lol

She is good and probably would do a better job running my teams these days than I would

:)

 
comfortably numb said:
Bruce Hammond said:
comfortably numb said:
Bruce Hammond said:
comfortably numb said:
just hosed a staffer!!!

Hot Route Fantasy Football TradeCheryl Rodrigues gave up:$2.00 in blind bidding

Anthony Borbely gave up:

Hernandez, Aaron FA TE
Click to expand...
Hey Conf Numb, are you letting the wifey run the team these days? I remember PMing with her here one night, a bunch of years ago. Cool lady. Tell her I said hi!

Oh, and IMO staffer hosed you for 2 bucks. :D Plus he freed up a roster spot to find the next Arian Foster while you've used one up for nothing, until you realize AH is as likely to play another down in the NFL as I am, and you drop him.

Bruce
Click to expand...
What league was this?

I don't remember playing with someone named Bruce? unless you used a dif name?

There is another CcomfortablyNumb on this board.
Click to expand...
No, we weren't in a league together. just here. I was just Couch Potato then, before becoming staff. Pretty sure it was your wife. Same comfortably Numb, you've had that avatar forever. You have a hispanic name yes?
Click to expand...
ahhh, yes PMing makes sense i thought you said IMing...via AOL

Yea she had an account for a few weeks here.

I have a Portguese sounding name NOT hispanic!! lol

She is good and probably would do a better job running my teams these days than I would

:)
Click to expand...
Portuguese, sorry! Anyway, it was about some FFA topic or other, I don't really remember, just that she seemed very nice. I'd better stop plugging up the thread with this. Seeya. :)

 
To all staffers who say the slim chance of Hernandez playing again justifies ranking him in the Top 32 TEs, I respond that it is much more likely that a guy like Delanie Walker outperforms your expectations than Hernandez playing again. I really can't foresee any scenario where he plays again. There is so much evidence against him, to the extent that even if he miraculously pulled an OJ, no NFL will want to be associated with him. Beyond that, I don't see how he can avoid time for the weapons charges, which seem even more cut and dry according to his guilt. He's done. It's more likely you're wrong in your scouting profile of those ranked lower than him, than it is that Hernandez ever sees another down in the NFL.

 
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
It doesn't make sense to me that Garda can submit a ranking today and still have him at 44 (?),

 
Offered a team a 3rd rounder to take Hernandez off my hands in a contract league ($4.50 cap hit out of $400). Counter offer: 2014 1st, 2015 1st, 2015 2nd...

 
rude classless thugs said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
It doesn't make sense to me that Garda can submit a ranking today and still have him at 44 (?),
Click to expand...
It makes even less sense that all of the rankings were updated yesterday and several others have him higher than that. He's at 16, 18 and as high as 12. Are you kidding me???

 
jurb26 said:
rude classless thugs said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
It doesn't make sense to me that Garda can submit a ranking today and still have him at 44 (?),
Click to expand...
It makes even less sense that all of the rankings were updated yesterday and several others have him higher than that. He's at 16, 18 and as high as 12. Are you kidding me???
Click to expand...
This is at least the 3rd time you have expressed incredulity on his ranking in this thread, we get it. Unless you strictly make trade decisions based on the literal FBG consensus, I don't see the impact. Your brain should hopefully be able to process new information faster than any type of rankings that need to be submitted.

Just because rankings are published at a certain time, doesn't mean that is when they were submitted. Even then. those rankings while I wouldn't have agreed with them yesterday morning - are within the range of what some people were thinking at the time.

 
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Before I say more, I had him at dynasty TE30 as of 6/23 and off my board as of yesterday.

Others who updated rankings yesterday (6/26) did so at different times. Those who updated before the arraignment did not have benefit of all the evidence discussed in that arraignment, and although I did not agree even on 6/23 with a wait-and-see approach, I think that was still the reason behind rankings made yesterday but before the arraignment.

As for any rankings that include him after the arraignment, I'll leave that for the individual staffers to explain their thinking. I don't get it either.

ETA -- when we post rankings, they are immediate, so there is no screening or any delay going on. Dated 6/26 means the guy did them on 6/26, they weren't done on 6/25 then delayed a day.

 
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I am acquiring him on the cheap in every league I can. You watch they will get him off and somebody like Dallas will suit him up in the not too distant future.

 
cdubz said:
jurb26 said:
rude classless thugs said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
It doesn't make sense to me that Garda can submit a ranking today and still have him at 44 (?),
Click to expand...
It makes even less sense that all of the rankings were updated yesterday and several others have him higher than that. He's at 16, 18 and as high as 12. Are you kidding me???
Click to expand...
This is at least the 3rd time you have expressed incredulity on his ranking in this thread, we get it. Unless you strictly make trade decisions based on the literal FBG consensus, I don't see the impact. Your brain should hopefully be able to process new information faster than any type of rankings that need to be submitted.

Just because rankings are published at a certain time, doesn't mean that is when they were submitted. Even then. those rankings while I wouldn't have agreed with them yesterday morning - are within the range of what some people were thinking at the time.
Click to expand...
So I guess you didn't read he title of this thread.... It's about AH dynasty value. Discussing his dynasty ranks seems appropriate in this thread, like it or not. Yes, the staff rankings are pertinent to the discussion because even though I do not use them to make trades many others who more casually play FF and use the site most likely do.
 
Bruce Hammond said:
Before I say more, I had him at dynasty TE30 as of 6/23 and off my board as of yesterday.

Others who updated rankings yesterday (6/26) did so at different times. Those who updated before the arraignment did not have benefit of all the evidence discussed in that arraignment, and although I did not agree even on 6/23 with a wait-and-see approach, I think that was still the reason behind rankings made yesterday but before the arraignment.

As for any rankings that include him after the arraignment, I'll leave that for the individual staffers to explain their thinking. I don't get it either.

ETA -- when we post rankings, they are immediate, so there is no screening or any delay going on. Dated 6/26 means the guy did them on 6/26, they weren't done on 6/25 then delayed a day.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

 
jurb26 said:
rude classless thugs said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
It doesn't make sense to me that Garda can submit a ranking today and still have him at 44 (?),
Click to expand...
It makes even less sense that all of the rankings were updated yesterday and several others have him higher than that. He's at 16, 18 and as high as 12. Are you kidding me???
Click to expand...
do staffers get paid here?

 
jurb26 said:
cdubz said:
jurb26 said:
rude classless thugs said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
It doesn't make sense to me that Garda can submit a ranking today and still have him at 44 (?),
Click to expand...
It makes even less sense that all of the rankings were updated yesterday and several others have him higher than that. He's at 16, 18 and as high as 12. Are you kidding me???
Click to expand...
This is at least the 3rd time you have expressed incredulity on his ranking in this thread, we get it. Unless you strictly make trade decisions based on the literal FBG consensus, I don't see the impact. Your brain should hopefully be able to process new information faster than any type of rankings that need to be submitted.

Just because rankings are published at a certain time, doesn't mean that is when they were submitted. Even then. those rankings while I wouldn't have agreed with them yesterday morning - are within the range of what some people were thinking at the time.
Click to expand...
So I guess you didn't read he title of this thread.... It's about AH dynasty value. Discussing his dynasty ranks seems appropriate in this thread, like it or not. Yes, the staff rankings are pertinent to the discussion because even though I do not use them to make trades many others who more casually play FF and use the site most likely do.
Click to expand...
makes sense to me

 
IMO, nearly anybody else on the waiver wire has more value, ergo he has negative value to your roster due to carrying cost.

 
FBG email is dead wrong. He isn't at a nickel on the dollar...he's completely worthless. And Dodds should be ASHAMED of himself for daring to compare it to the Vick situation. Everybody knew that if convicted Vick would be out a year or two. If convicted, Hernandez will be out for decades.

How many people get arrested for a capital murder days after the body is found and ARE NOT guilty? Stick a fork in him.

 
renesauz said:
FBG email is dead wrong. He isn't at a nickel on the dollar...he's completely worthless. And Dodds should be ASHAMED of himself for daring to compare it to the Vick situation. Everybody knew that if convicted Vick would be out a year or two. If convicted, Hernandez will be out for decades.

How many people get arrested for a capital murder days after the body is found and ARE NOT guilty? Stick a fork in him.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

"He still has five to ten cents on the dollar value in dynasty, with Michael Vick an example of a player who returned from prison time to have fantasy value."

This may not even go to trial until 2015 or beyond. Then there's the NFL suspension to wait through.

 
renesauz said:
FBG email is dead wrong. He isn't at a nickel on the dollar...he's completely worthless. And Dodds should be ASHAMED of himself for daring to compare it to the Vick situation. Everybody knew that if convicted Vick would be out a year or two. If convicted, Hernandez will be out for decades.

How many people get arrested for a capital murder days after the body is found and ARE NOT guilty? Stick a fork in him.
Click to expand...
Some people still don't get it . I was embarrassed reading the email for whoever penned it.
 
renesauz said:
FBG email is dead wrong. He isn't at a nickel on the dollar...he's completely worthless. And Dodds should be ASHAMED of himself for daring to compare it to the Vick situation. Everybody knew that if convicted Vick would be out a year or two. If convicted, Hernandez will be out for decades.

How many people get arrested for a capital murder days after the body is found and ARE NOT guilty? Stick a fork in him.
Click to expand...
OJ

Casey Anthony

Look I am in the camp that he is done.

I traded $2 BB for him and then 20 min later traded him for $5 BB just for the schtick factor but, stranger things have happened.

 
comfortably numb said:
renesauz said:
FBG email is dead wrong. He isn't at a nickel on the dollar...he's completely worthless. And Dodds should be ASHAMED of himself for daring to compare it to the Vick situation. Everybody knew that if convicted Vick would be out a year or two. If convicted, Hernandez will be out for decades.

How many people get arrested for a capital murder days after the body is found and ARE NOT guilty? Stick a fork in him.
Click to expand...
OJ

Casey Anthony

Look I am in the camp that he is done.

I traded $2 BB for him and then 20 min later traded him for $5 BB just for the schtick factor but, stranger things have happened.
Click to expand...
OK best case scenario is he beats the murder rap in 2yrs but he also has 5 counts on gun charges that carry serious time. So say he does 3 for the guns on top of the time it takes to bring him to trial....at best he's 5 years away from league sanctions.

buy low

 
HellToupee said:
comfortably numb said:
renesauz said:
FBG email is dead wrong. He isn't at a nickel on the dollar...he's completely worthless. And Dodds should be ASHAMED of himself for daring to compare it to the Vick situation. Everybody knew that if convicted Vick would be out a year or two. If convicted, Hernandez will be out for decades.

How many people get arrested for a capital murder days after the body is found and ARE NOT guilty? Stick a fork in him.
Click to expand...
OJ

Casey Anthony

Look I am in the camp that he is done.

I traded $2 BB for him and then 20 min later traded him for $5 BB just for the schtick factor but, stranger things have happened.
Click to expand...
OK best case scenario is he beats the murder rap in 2yrs but he also has 5 counts on gun charges that carry serious time. So say he does 3 for the guns on top of the time it takes to bring him to trial....at best he's 5 years away from league sanctions.

buy low
Click to expand...
just saying

:shrug:

Stallworth/Vick/Lewis/Plaxico

all these guys were dropped in my deep dynasty leagues only to eventually have some form of value left.

Great chance Hernadez never sees a free moon again but say he gets off on some technicality and it comes to light he did not pull trigger. He goes on oprah and cries about how his gang was his only life, he speaks about the dangers of ganglife to kids and current athletes. He serves his 2 year suspension from Goodell. In 2016 when he is 29 and the Bengals are not sure if Eifert will resign with CIN or go elsewhere....they bring him in for a looksy.

 
KellysHeroes said:
jurb26 said:
rude classless thugs said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
It doesn't make sense to me that Garda can submit a ranking today and still have him at 44 (?),
Click to expand...
It makes even less sense that all of the rankings were updated yesterday and several others have him higher than that. He's at 16, 18 and as high as 12. Are you kidding me???
Click to expand...
do staffers get paid here?
Click to expand...
Yes. Just last year I signed a $41 mil contract with $12.5 mil guaranteed. Then I celebrated by getting some guns and going gangbanging. :moneybag: :gang2: :gang1: :moneybag:

 
comfortably numb said:
just saying

:shrug:

Stallworth/Vick/Lewis/Plaxico

all these guys were dropped in my deep dynasty leagues only to eventually have some form of value left.
Click to expand...
Irony is all of them were found guilty of something (or plea'ed to some charge). If AH is guilty or even pleas down to a lesser charge it still means his career.

If you're buying you're hoping for the 2% of cases where the guy gets off. It's still possible. And given his talent level its possible to make an expected value comparison that is in his favor, but you need that 2%.

 
comfortably numb said:
HellToupee said:
comfortably numb said:
renesauz said:
FBG email is dead wrong. He isn't at a nickel on the dollar...he's completely worthless. And Dodds should be ASHAMED of himself for daring to compare it to the Vick situation. Everybody knew that if convicted Vick would be out a year or two. If convicted, Hernandez will be out for decades.

How many people get arrested for a capital murder days after the body is found and ARE NOT guilty? Stick a fork in him.
Click to expand...
OJ

Casey Anthony

Look I am in the camp that he is done.

I traded $2 BB for him and then 20 min later traded him for $5 BB just for the schtick factor but, stranger things have happened.
Click to expand...
OK best case scenario is he beats the murder rap in 2yrs but he also has 5 counts on gun charges that carry serious time. So say he does 3 for the guns on top of the time it takes to bring him to trial....at best he's 5 years away from league sanctions.

buy low
Click to expand...
just saying

:shrug:

Stallworth/Vick/Lewis/Plaxico

all these guys were dropped in my deep dynasty leagues only to eventually have some form of value left.

Great chance Hernadez never sees a free moon again but say he gets off on some technicality and it comes to light he did not pull trigger. He goes on oprah and cries about how his gang was his only life, he speaks about the dangers of ganglife to kids and current athletes. He serves his 2 year suspension from Goodell. In 2016 when he is 29 and the Bengals are not sure if Eifert will resign with CIN or go elsewhere....they bring him in for a looksy.
Click to expand...
So..under the absolute best case scenario (which carries no more than a 2 or 3% chance of happening), he get's another NFL shot 3 or more years from now?

Yeah...that's worth a nickel on the dollar.

NOT.

 
jurb26 said:
rude classless thugs said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
It doesn't make sense to me that Garda can submit a ranking today and still have him at 44 (?),
Click to expand...
It makes even less sense that all of the rankings were updated yesterday and several others have him higher than that. He's at 16, 18 and as high as 12. Are you kidding me???
Click to expand...
I know that all projection comments (regardless of projector) for Hernandez were cleaned out on the 26th. I suspect that may be causing a couple of people's projections to show as having been updated on the 26th when the actual rankings were not updated yet. Checking into it.

Edit to add: I'm even more inclined that this is the case, as those staffers didn't participate in discussions yesterday, and none of them have comments added for Hernandez, which they should have for an unusual ranking like that. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.

 
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Compare it to Gavin Escobar though. Escobar has perhaps a 4 year wait before he can be a TE1, and certainly the risk is high that he ever is a TE1. Who has more expected value Escobar or Hernandez? If you blindly go by percentages I think you can say Hernandez. We draft guys every year lamenting they're stuck on our bench for 2 years before we even know what we got.

 
There is a very cool business concept called the 'real option', which works well here.

4-5 years for Escobar is the pessimistic scenario. There is rosy scenario where he shows well in practice, picks up the offense quickly, Dallas goes to more 2-TE sets (or Witten gets hurt). In the optimistic scenario, Escobar has good value long before the 4 years. There is a range of scenarios in-between. In all cases, you will get progressively more information as you go along that will help you understand the scenario you are in. If the info is bad, you will have multiple 'real options' to free up the roster spot as time goes bye.

With Hernandez, you wait at least 1-1.5 seasons (trial plus minimum NFL suspension if gets off clean from the justice system) with no new incoming info to give you a 'real option'. Then, if he gets a minor sentence, the wait extends. So you will be all-in freezing the roster spot, no new info coming for a prolonged period of time.

The real option with Escobar makes him much more rosterable.

 
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Heard from Jeff Terfertiller. He confirmed that the ranking was from before the arraignment. The timestamp got altered when the system-wide change was made.

Getting the others fixed, in the meantime if he's ranked without a comment added on it, it's a ranking from before the arraignment.

 
Greg Russell said:
jurb26 said:
rude classless thugs said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
It doesn't make sense to me that Garda can submit a ranking today and still have him at 44 (?),
Click to expand...
It makes even less sense that all of the rankings were updated yesterday and several others have him higher than that. He's at 16, 18 and as high as 12. Are you kidding me???
Click to expand...
I know that all projection comments (regardless of projector) for Hernandez were cleaned out on the 26th. I suspect that may be causing a couple of people's projections to show as having been updated on the 26th when the actual rankings were not updated yet. Checking into it.

Edit to add: I'm even more inclined that this is the case, as those staffers didn't participate in discussions yesterday, and none of them have comments added for Hernandez, which they should have for an unusual ranking like that. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the info. That actually makes sense.

 
jurb26 said:
HellToupee said:
jurb26 said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
Average FBG ranking is 32. Thatis unreal. He's out of football for at least 2 years. 1 for the trial to unfold. 2nd for minimum NFL suspension. There is a better than 90% chance he's out for at least 5 years with the gun charges alone. There is roughly an 80% chance he never sees a field again, outside of the inmates vs guards league.
Click to expand...
MA state average is 90% for murder trials . So at best its a 10% chance to beat the rap before the NFL would take action.
Click to expand...
I amend my ratios to 95% he's out at least 5 years, neglecting what the NFL will do, and 90% never again. Thanks for the info.

Oh, and I think I'm being optimistic towards his NFL future BTW.
Click to expand...
90% when they don't have this much evidence. I would estimate it at 99.9994% he never sees the field again.

 
thriftyrocker said:
Compare it to Gavin Escobar though. Escobar has perhaps a 4 year wait before he can be a TE1, and certainly the risk is high that he ever is a TE1. Who has more expected value Escobar or Hernandez? If you blindly go by percentages I think you can say Hernandez. We draft guys every year lamenting they're stuck on our bench for 2 years before we even know what we got.
Click to expand...
Escobar > a 1/2 empty bag of chips > Hernandez

Have you heard a summary of the evidence already in place after little more than a week?

 
DropKick said:
jurb26 said:
HellToupee said:
jurb26 said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
Average FBG ranking is 32. Thatis unreal. He's out of football for at least 2 years. 1 for the trial to unfold. 2nd for minimum NFL suspension. There is a better than 90% chance he's out for at least 5 years with the gun charges alone. There is roughly an 80% chance he never sees a field again, outside of the inmates vs guards league.
Click to expand...
MA state average is 90% for murder trials . So at best its a 10% chance to beat the rap before the NFL would take action.
Click to expand...
I amend my ratios to 95% he's out at least 5 years, neglecting what the NFL will do, and 90% never again. Thanks for the info.

Oh, and I think I'm being optimistic towards his NFL future BTW.
Click to expand...
90% when they don't have this much evidence. I would estimate it at 99.9994% he never sees the field again.
Click to expand...
So you're telling me there's a chance...........

 
DropKick said:
thriftyrocker said:
Compare it to Gavin Escobar though. Escobar has perhaps a 4 year wait before he can be a TE1, and certainly the risk is high that he ever is a TE1. Who has more expected value Escobar or Hernandez? If you blindly go by percentages I think you can say Hernandez. We draft guys every year lamenting they're stuck on our bench for 2 years before we even know what we got.
Click to expand...
Escobar > a 1/2 empty bag of chips > Hernandez

Have you heard a summary of the evidence already in place after little more than a week?
Click to expand...
I said "blindly go by percentages." Thanks for the response.

 
Bruce Hammond said:
KellysHeroes said:
jurb26 said:
rude classless thugs said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
Click to expand...
It doesn't make sense to me that Garda can submit a ranking today and still have him at 44 (?),
Click to expand...
It makes even less sense that all of the rankings were updated yesterday and several others have him higher than that. He's at 16, 18 and as high as 12. Are you kidding me???
Click to expand...
do staffers get paid here?
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Yes. Just last year I signed a $41 mil contract with $12.5 mil guaranteed. Then I celebrated by getting some guns and going gangbanging. :moneybag: :gang2: :gang1: :moneybag:
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fantasy footballers gettin' more action than I expected

 
Zdravko said:
There is a very cool business concept called the 'real option', which works well here.

4-5 years for Escobar is the pessimistic scenario. There is rosy scenario where he shows well in practice, picks up the offense quickly, Dallas goes to more 2-TE sets (or Witten gets hurt). In the optimistic scenario, Escobar has good value long before the 4 years. There is a range of scenarios in-between. In all cases, you will get progressively more information as you go along that will help you understand the scenario you are in. If the info is bad, you will have multiple 'real options' to free up the roster spot as time goes bye.

With Hernandez, you wait at least 1-1.5 seasons (trial plus minimum NFL suspension if gets off clean from the justice system) with no new incoming info to give you a 'real option'. Then, if he gets a minor sentence, the wait extends. So you will be all-in freezing the roster spot, no new info coming for a prolonged period of time.

The real option with Escobar makes him much more rosterable.
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:goodposting: Hernandez is worthless

 
jurb26 said:
HellToupee said:
jurb26 said:
HellToupee said:
Aaron Hernandez is still in the dynasty rankings turned in yesterday & today. He's 12th on Terfitiller's board. Today Garda has 44.
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Average FBG ranking is 32. Thatis unreal. He's out of football for at least 2 years. 1 for the trial to unfold. 2nd for minimum NFL suspension. There is a better than 90% chance he's out for at least 5 years with the gun charges alone. There is roughly an 80% chance he never sees a field again, outside of the inmates vs guards league.
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MA state average is 90% for murder trials . So at best its a 10% chance to beat the rap before the NFL would take action.
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I amend my ratios to 95% he's out at least 5 years, neglecting what the NFL will do, and 90% never again. Thanks for the info. Oh, and I think I'm being optimistic towards his NFL future BTW.
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I agree. Any hope Hernandez owners held out should have been dashed as soon as they heard the charges and the evidence against him. Hernandez's only chance would have been if he'd gotten charged with obstruction, or maybe accessory. If the police are saying he's the guy who actually pulled the trigger, he's done.And this is completely ignoring the two other murders that he's now a suspect in.

 
comfortably numb said:
HellToupee said:
comfortably numb said:
renesauz said:
FBG email is dead wrong. He isn't at a nickel on the dollar...he's completely worthless. And Dodds should be ASHAMED of himself for daring to compare it to the Vick situation. Everybody knew that if convicted Vick would be out a year or two. If convicted, Hernandez will be out for decades.

How many people get arrested for a capital murder days after the body is found and ARE NOT guilty? Stick a fork in him.
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OJ

Casey Anthony

Look I am in the camp that he is done.

I traded $2 BB for him and then 20 min later traded him for $5 BB just for the schtick factor but, stranger things have happened.
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OK best case scenario is he beats the murder rap in 2yrs but he also has 5 counts on gun charges that carry serious time. So say he does 3 for the guns on top of the time it takes to bring him to trial....at best he's 5 years away from league sanctions.buy low
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just saying

:shrug:

Stallworth/Vick/Lewis/Plaxico

all these guys were dropped in my deep dynasty leagues only to eventually have some form of value left.

Great chance Hernadez never sees a free moon again but say he gets off on some technicality and it comes to light he did not pull trigger. He goes on oprah and cries about how his gang was his only life, he speaks about the dangers of ganglife to kids and current athletes. He serves his 2 year suspension from Goodell. In 2016 when he is 29 and the Bengals are not sure if Eifert will resign with CIN or go elsewhere....they bring him in for a looksy.
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I think this position was perfectly reasonable before the arraignment, but kind of a lot has changed since then. People don't beat murder charges on technicalities. Especially not when there's this much evidence- video evidence showing him with the weapon and establishing a timeline, DNA evidence on the gum, shell casings in his car. The police don't move that quickly, especially with the national media watching their every move, unless they're CERTAIN they've got a slam dunk case. And, as others point out, even ignoring the murder charge, there's the handgun charges, and there's the two other murders he's being investigated for.I was strongly advocating a wait-and-see approach. We waited. We saw. It's over.

 
Adam Harstad said:
comfortably numb said:
HellToupee said:
comfortably numb said:
renesauz said:
FBG email is dead wrong. He isn't at a nickel on the dollar...he's completely worthless. And Dodds should be ASHAMED of himself for daring to compare it to the Vick situation. Everybody knew that if convicted Vick would be out a year or two. If convicted, Hernandez will be out for decades.

How many people get arrested for a capital murder days after the body is found and ARE NOT guilty? Stick a fork in him.
Click to expand...
OJ

Casey Anthony

Look I am in the camp that he is done.

I traded $2 BB for him and then 20 min later traded him for $5 BB just for the schtick factor but, stranger things have happened.
Click to expand...
OK best case scenario is he beats the murder rap in 2yrs but he also has 5 counts on gun charges that carry serious time. So say he does 3 for the guns on top of the time it takes to bring him to trial....at best he's 5 years away from league sanctions.buy low
Click to expand...
just saying

:shrug:

Stallworth/Vick/Lewis/Plaxico

all these guys were dropped in my deep dynasty leagues only to eventually have some form of value left.

Great chance Hernadez never sees a free moon again but say he gets off on some technicality and it comes to light he did not pull trigger. He goes on oprah and cries about how his gang was his only life, he speaks about the dangers of ganglife to kids and current athletes. He serves his 2 year suspension from Goodell. In 2016 when he is 29 and the Bengals are not sure if Eifert will resign with CIN or go elsewhere....they bring him in for a looksy.
Click to expand...
I think this position was perfectly reasonable before the arraignment, but kind of a lot has changed since then. People don't beat murder charges on technicalities. Especially not when there's this much evidence- video evidence showing him with the weapon and establishing a timeline, DNA evidence on the gum, shell casings in his car. The police don't move that quickly, especially with the national media watching their every move, unless they're CERTAIN they've got a slam dunk case. And, as others point out, even ignoring the murder charge, there's the handgun charges, and there's the two other murders he's being investigated for.I was strongly advocating a wait-and-see approach. We waited. We saw. It's over.
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You've been the voice of reason in this thread, thank you for that.

Time to cut bait guys, there's just too many cases stacking up here.

 
I understand not wanting to remove Aaron Hernandez from your rankings completely, but he should not be in your top four hundred or so tight ends. It is obvious to me that he has less fantasy value than any of: Leonard Pope, Brit Miller, Dominique Jones, Todd Heap, Will Heller, Dallas Clark, Jake O'Connell, Randy McMichael, Chris Cooley, Justin Snow, or Shannon Sharpe, just to name a few.

 
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thriftyrocker said:
Compare it to Gavin Escobar though. Escobar has perhaps a 4 year wait before he can be a TE1, and certainly the risk is high that he ever is a TE1. Who has more expected value Escobar or Hernandez? If you blindly go by percentages I think you can say Hernandez.
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It's Escobar by a factor more than a thousand, IMO.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
I understand not wanting to remove Aaron Hernandez from your rankings completely, but he should not be in your top four hundred or so tight ends. It is obvious to me that he has less fantasy value than any of: Leonard Pope, Brit Miller, Dominique Jones, Todd Heap, Will Heller, Dallas Clark, Jake O'Connell, Randy McMichael, Chris Cooley, Justin Snow, or Shannon Sharpe, just to name a few.
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I have him in Ben Coates territory after my latest update.

 
thriftyrocker said:
Compare it to Gavin Escobar though. Escobar has perhaps a 4 year wait before he can be a TE1, and certainly the risk is high that he ever is a TE1. Who has more expected value Escobar or Hernandez? If you blindly go by percentages I think you can say Hernandez. We draft guys every year lamenting they're stuck on our bench for 2 years before we even know what we got.
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compare him to Pablo Escobar imo
 
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