Touchdown There
Footballguy
Jolly went away for Purple Drank. Buress went away because a gun discharged accidentally and shot himself in the thigh. Two people are dead in two different incidents here.
Sell
Sell
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Aaron Hernandez current dynasty value (1 Viewer)
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Max Power
Footballguy
nothing sucks more than holding a wasted roster spot for a couple years. Ever week of the season, you'll be cursing his name when it comes to waivwe wire pickups and drops.
cstu
Footballguy
steelcityman
Footballguy
He is never going to play a down again. Trade for tebow.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Jeremy
Footballguy
I don't know if I agree. For this to be true, they'll need to get a conviction for a crime that puts him away for a long time. If he cops a plea like Lewis did or gets aquitted like OJ did, he'll play again. Even if the Patriots are convinced he's a murderer, they'll take him back with open arms.steelcityman said:
Why is that? I'm offering my opinion on Aherns current dynasty value. In a 1 TE league, he is worth giving Fleener, who may never amount to anything but a TE2.
I'll take the chance that he takes the Ray Lewis/Michael Vick route. If he doesn't, no big loss.
I'm in this league and getting crucified for calling out the ridiculous trade.
I can't believe he was traded for so little.
And nobody else seems to care.
It's a $300 Dynasty league!!!!!!!
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Touchdown There
Footballguy
Shot. My bad.PlasmaDogPlasma said:
Shutout
Footballguy
Lets reset the panic button some.
Hernandez appears to be in some trouble; let's assume that just so we are all evaluating from the same position. So lets assume he is in trouble and let's assume he won't play for five years. As crazy as that seems to hold a player, lets remember that if that happened, he would still be young enough to come back and put up five more years of top production. That's not a given of course but with all things being equal, the point is to illustrate that, given his known level of talent, isn't it crazy to even consider trading him away for such low compensation?
If you tell me today that he won't play for two years, I'm still holding a dynasty spot for him and saying "see you when you're 25" before I'm trading him away for 3rd rounders and houslers and second rate talent.
Hernandez appears to be in some trouble; let's assume that just so we are all evaluating from the same position. So lets assume he is in trouble and let's assume he won't play for five years. As crazy as that seems to hold a player, lets remember that if that happened, he would still be young enough to come back and put up five more years of top production. That's not a given of course but with all things being equal, the point is to illustrate that, given his known level of talent, isn't it crazy to even consider trading him away for such low compensation?
If you tell me today that he won't play for two years, I'm still holding a dynasty spot for him and saying "see you when you're 25" before I'm trading him away for 3rd rounders and houslers and second rate talent.
Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I'll still be a buyer if he's sentenced to 5 years -- he'll serve 2 then after a year suspension he'll hit the field again at 26. The only way his career is over is if he actually gets convicted for personally pulling the trigger.
madd futher
Footballguy
Yes, the trade is totally bogus. That guy could have gotten some real actual value for Fleener, rather than just a significant no-play risk. After all, the Colts plan do to use Fleener much more this year as a vertical threat this year. What was he thinking? I'd quit that league if I were you..
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You went back and edited this post, and it still reads like this? Interesting.
But seriously, how is Fleener for Hernandez a terrible bet to make? If I offered Fleener for Hernandez a week ago, the owner would have laughed in my face.
This is the period where we have to guess if he is guilty or innocent based on what we are hearing in the media. I choose to bet he can afford a lawyer who can make most of this go away, no matter what the true story is.
Giving the TE 18 for even a slim chance at the TE 4 is a good bet for me. Especially when my league only starts one TE.
madd futher
Footballguy
That was last week's news. I'm laughing at you thinking that this was a terrible trade for the ex -Hernandez owner. He may just have pulled off a great trade by getting Fleener. I happen to think he got good value. Nobody knows the outcome, but I'd venture say there's a fair probability that Hernandez never plays another down in the NFL.
BrainDeadGenius
Footballguy
If I'm a Jimmy Graham owner, I'm all over AHern.
DevilDog919
Footballguy
Just offered Jordan Cameron for Ahern and was shot down. His value will either shoot up or even further down in the next few days, curious to see who regret's that offer.
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
Instead of assuming he won't play for five years, why don't we assign a level of probability based on what we know now?
Here is a guess:
Not sure how this happens, but ok - Nothing comes of it, plays all season - 5%
Cooperates with police, someone else did it, gets slap on wrist - Misses significant time (4-10 games) - 20%
Takes year off to battle legal troubles for season, ultimately gets off - Misses 1 season - 20%
Eventual accessory to murder conviction or indefinite ban by Goodall with later reinstatement - Misses multiple seasons (2-5 years) - 30%
Murder conviction or lifetime ban or both - NFL Career Is Over - 25%
Does this seem far off to most of you? I actually am struggling to not assign much higher probabilities to the last three choices, but am trying not to overreact. Hard not to, given the way Hernandez has acted guilty with cleaners, cell destruction, security destruction and by the various news reports.
madd futher
Footballguy
Based on everything I've read, those probabilities sound very reasonable to me.
I gotcha. I'm not the one who thinks the trade is terrible for the ex-Hernandez owner, but I am one of the ones who traded Fleener for Hernandez. I think it actually made sense for both teams.
He needed a TE in case Hernandez never plays again and I have 5 decent TEs. Witten is my starter, then Gates, Keller, Allen and Fleener were backups. To me, it was worth risking Fleener for the potential of Hernandez playing again, even if the probability is slim.
I think takes year off to battle legal troubles might be a bit low while options 4 and 5 might be a bit high. I think there's a relatively high probability that he either killed the guy or was an accessory to murder but walks due to a top notch defense team and/or lack of evidence.
Johnny Blood
Footballguy
This is really a new low in the trade veto game.
I now think you could trade a dead stud for a prospect and someone would veto it because the prospect isn't worth enough.
Rookie_Whisperer
Footballguy
Was that before or after the ACL and Microfracture surgery? 275lbs, recent knee reconstruction......ummmm, thanks but I'll pass. Pretty sure he's not going to fill the void of either Gronk or Hernandez. Maybe right tackle.
I think the last two probabilities are high and the third is low. I don't think there's a real chance his NFL career is over. I'd bump that down to 10%, lower the 2-5 ban to 25%, and raise the 1 season ban to 40%.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am gonna treat this like a preseason blown ACL.
Gonna say no conviction, but 1 year suspension.
Gonna say no conviction, but 1 year suspension.
I'm the guy who traded Housler/2014 third rounder for Hernandez. I also have Graham - this is my exact situation.
Where do you guys come up with this stuff?
Ray Lewis had blood all over his suit (which police never found, hint hint) from a guy getting stabbed to death at the nightclub after an altercation with HIS FRIENDS, and he only got a FINE, with NO SUSPENSIONS.
Why would there be even a remote chance of Hernandez getting suspended for a season?
Also, Ray Lewis was actually charged with murder. Last I heard Hernandez was not even considered a primary suspect.
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Have you ever heard of Roger Goodell?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Enough going on now, Hern WILL be suspended by Goodell. 100% certain of it. Far too much stuff out there now.
Not even sure Goodell lets him play this year while a trial or whatever would be going on. "Indefinite suspension".
Not even sure Goodell lets him play this year while a trial or whatever would be going on. "Indefinite suspension".
jurb26
Footballguy
Why are people so quick to assume that yf he goes to prison for an extended period of time he can just come back and pick up where he left off? Because Vick did it? That is a bold assumption IMO. There is just as good a chance he gets totally out of shape and never has an impact.
petenice15
Footballguy
This is exactly how I feel as well. He's 23, has a ton of money to pay off lawyers and he'll play again. It's the reality of our messed up legal system. Everyone needs to stop playing Judge Judy and realize the rich get away with murder...literally. The longer they go without arresting him, the more I feel confident he'll get off somehow with minimal time and this will all be a tiny footnote in his long career.
JustinHawkins
Footballguy
Was just offered this trade in a 12 team PPR dynasty and I am still having a hard time accepting. Am I nuts?
I give: Hernandez & Stedman Bailey
I get: Fleener, DeSean Jackson, 2nd in 2014
Under these circumstances its probably worth taking but finding it hard to hit accept. Anyone else reluctant to sell, even at this kind of price?
I give: Hernandez & Stedman Bailey
I get: Fleener, DeSean Jackson, 2nd in 2014
Under these circumstances its probably worth taking but finding it hard to hit accept. Anyone else reluctant to sell, even at this kind of price?
Donsmith753
Footballguy
I wouldn't do that. I'm stubborn though.
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
Or, that if/when he returns it's not to the Patriots/Brady/Belichick who may have decided to move on from his punk behavior, and/or Brady may have retired. Are teams going to let him be a focal point of the offense, knowing he's a major behavioral risk, or a pariah to the fan base? Too many Hernandez apologists in this thread are just assuming everything will be just dandy when he returns, like he never left. Pretty unlikely if you ask me. It's definitely NOT like returning from an ACL as someone said he's going to treat it.
Max Power
Footballguy
Yep, totally agree with you. The guy has had 3-4 run ins with the law related to firearms, a couple for drugs and fights. Even if his current legal issues don't land him in jail or suspended long, what makes you think he is going to stay out of trouble going forward? And I almost see this is two strikes for the guy in the NFL's eyes, Next issue and hes probably done.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Arrest warrant has been issued for Hernandez.
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/9409826/police-issue-arrest-warrant-aaron-hernandez-new-england-patriots-reports-abc-news
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/9409826/police-issue-arrest-warrant-aaron-hernandez-new-england-patriots-reports-abc-news
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Amused to Death
Footballguy
Plus Vick sat behind McNabb for a year and wasn't the starter going into his 2nd year back (backup to Kolb). This thinking that he could go away to prison for years and come back as an elite TE is wishful thinking. MAYBE he comes back and has productive years, but I wouldn't keep a roster spot for him for 3 years then hope for the best.
And I doubt he would be welcomed back to the Patriots. He would be some team's TE3 IF he was allowed back into the NFL.
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werdnoynek
Footballguy
that is robbery. the authorities may be coming after you if you accept that.
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gandalas
Footballguy
Woods was a 2nd rounder, not 1st. Johnson will be just fine, and may do better with some better players across from him out there.
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