Aaron Hernandez current dynasty value (1 Viewer)

[MAC_32]

Buy.

 

[jurb26]

What are Ballard owners doing or seeing?

 

[ghostguy123]

Buy.

Absolutely. I will buy at a good price right now. Lets say he is not convicted of anything but misses this entire year for a suspension.

To me that would make him still easily worth a couple 1sts. And from what I see so far, people are GIVING him away

 

[ghostguy123]

What are Ballard owners doing or seeing?

I own him in a league. Absolutely nothing. It's kinda early for that I would say.

 

[jurb26]

What are Ballard owners doing or seeing?

I own him in a league. Absolutely nothing. It's kinda early for that I would say.

I own Jim in a league and oddly enough I had 2 offers for him last week. Turned both down, thank god.

Curious to see if those same guys come knocking again.

It's never too early to talk about this, BTW. People will be reacting today IMO.

 

[bigmarc27]

I think there are a lot of serious overreactions going on here thinking his career is over, etc.

If we have learned anything about how the NFL treats players, we know that while they are certainly quick and stern in handing down punishments, everyone gets a 2nd (and 3rd) chance.

Plaxico went to jail for 2 years and came back in his mid 30s and had a relevant fantasy stint.

Vick went to jail for two years and came back.

You know how it is with these NFL players with money and the ability to plead down a charge. Unless they reveal that he heineously murdered someone in cold blood, the absolute most he will ever get is a three year sentence that is watered down to two and then a 25, 26 year old Hernandez will be allowed right back into the NFL.

But that is putting the cart ahead of the horse. It could very well end up that Hernandez walks out of this with nothing.

If I own him, I don't trade. If I don't own him, I probably observe his owner to guage his feelings and I buy because at this time the owner willing to sell can't ask for the moon so you are liking getting the lowest price you can imagine and if that price is liveable with you to say "Worst case scenario, I just gave this way for nothing" then you can only win long-term.

Agree with this. I have extreme lowball offers out for him in every league. Arrested =/= convicted, and even if he is convicted, he'll likely be back in the league eventually unless he actually goes down for pulling the trigger. At 23, he can do a few years in prison, serve a year suspension, and still have a few years left in his prime. And IMO it's equally likely that he's acquitted / rolls over on his buddies / pleads to a lesser charge / etc. If I can get him for roster fodder / a 3rd or 4th round pick I'll happily hang on and hope for the best.

You'd roster him if he was in jail for a few years?

 

[Zdravko]

Ballard got bought off waivers in a couple leagues yesterday. Both buyers bid a reasonable chunk of their waiver budget, which is generally significant because most try to save for pre-season gems.

Personally, not a big believer in Ballard. Maybe a few startable games here and there, but if both Gronk and AH are out longer term, I'd expect the stats to trickle to both TEs and a couple WRs. There is Hoomanawanui who can catch a few balls and then there are guys like Donald Jones or Edelman.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think there are a lot of serious overreactions going on here thinking his career is over, etc.

If we have learned anything about how the NFL treats players, we know that while they are certainly quick and stern in handing down punishments, everyone gets a 2nd (and 3rd) chance.

Plaxico went to jail for 2 years and came back in his mid 30s and had a relevant fantasy stint.

Vick went to jail for two years and came back.

You know how it is with these NFL players with money and the ability to plead down a charge. Unless they reveal that he heineously murdered someone in cold blood, the absolute most he will ever get is a three year sentence that is watered down to two and then a 25, 26 year old Hernandez will be allowed right back into the NFL.

But that is putting the cart ahead of the horse. It could very well end up that Hernandez walks out of this with nothing.

If I own him, I don't trade. If I don't own him, I probably observe his owner to guage his feelings and I buy because at this time the owner willing to sell can't ask for the moon so you are liking getting the lowest price you can imagine and if that price is liveable with you to say "Worst case scenario, I just gave this way for nothing" then you can only win long-term.

Agree with this. I have extreme lowball offers out for him in every league. Arrested =/= convicted, and even if he is convicted, he'll likely be back in the league eventually unless he actually goes down for pulling the trigger. At 23, he can do a few years in prison, serve a year suspension, and still have a few years left in his prime. And IMO it's equally likely that he's acquitted / rolls over on his buddies / pleads to a lesser charge / etc. If I can get him for roster fodder / a 3rd or 4th round pick I'll happily hang on and hope for the best.

You'd roster him if he was in jail for a few years?

Absolutely in most leagues. Why not? A proven young stud is worth sitting on as opposed to the crap on the waivers in most deeper leagues.

 

[humpback]

Buy.

Absolutely. I will buy at a good price right now. Lets say he is not convicted of anything but misses this entire year for a suspension.

To me that would make him still easily worth a couple 1sts. And from what I see so far, people are GIVING him away

This deal below is FAR from GIVING him away. Heck, you could argue that it's fair if none of this ever happened.

He was just moved in one of my leagues, I wasn't involved.

Hernandez, LaFell, Nick Toon, Knowshon Moreno

for

Witten, Greg Jennings, Vincent Brown, Bryce Brown

I like the Witten side personally.

That looks liek a deal where the guy getting Hernandez fully expects everything to be fine.

Lafell, Toon, and Moreno to me a trash. Jenning should be at least halfway decent. Vincent is very promising. Bryce Brown has talent t o be good if he gets an opportunity. Witten is a stud for a couple years.

I probably dont personally move hernandez for that, but that isnt bad.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Just saw him go for Housler + 2014 3rd in a 16 teamer

yeah, good haul for him right about now

 

[scothawk]

Got a great response earlier...

"If Hernandez was serving a life sentence without the possibility of parole I still wouldn't accept this."

Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it.

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

Ballard got bought off waivers in a couple leagues yesterday. Both buyers bid a reasonable chunk of their waiver budget, which is generally significant because most try to save for pre-season gems.

Personally, not a big believer in Ballard. Maybe a few startable games here and there, but if both Gronk and AH are out longer term, I'd expect the stats to trickle to both TEs and a couple WRs. There is Hoomanawanui who can catch a few balls and then there are guys like Donald Jones or Edelman.

Not so long ago, the Patriots didn't use TEs at all. I would expect that again unless Gronk and AHern are the guys there. Ballard and Hooman will never fill the shoes of either of those guys, so the gameplan would just change.

 

[jurb26]

Ballard got bought off waivers in a couple leagues yesterday. Both buyers bid a reasonable chunk of their waiver budget, which is generally significant because most try to save for pre-season gems.

Personally, not a big believer in Ballard. Maybe a few startable games here and there, but if both Gronk and AH are out longer term, I'd expect the stats to trickle to both TEs and a couple WRs. There is Hoomanawanui who can catch a few balls and then there are guys like Donald Jones or Edelman.

Not so long ago, the Patriots didn't use TEs at all. I would expect that again unless Gronk and AHern are the guys there. Ballard and Hooman will never fill the shoes of either of those guys, so the gameplan would just change.

Not so long ago Ballard posted 600+ uses and 4 TDs in 14 games as a rookie, too.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

He just went for Pitta and a 2014 3rd in one of my leagues. Not to me, but I'd probably pay that if I had some decent TE depth.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

Can't pedal him to anyone in my dynasty so Jared Cook it is if this comes to anything

 

[finito]

Can't pedal him to anyone in my dynasty so Jared Cook it is if this comes to anything

By the time we know if he's being charged etc., Cook may no longer be available for him.

 

[matttyl]

Can't pedal him to anyone in my dynasty so Jared Cook it is if this comes to anything

By the time we know if he's being charged etc., Cook may no longer be available for him.

I have Cook in my league and I wouldn't trade him for Hernandez straight up right now.

 

[prhof14]

12 team PPR Hernandez was just traded for Tony G and a 3rd rounder

 

[Dreamer]

Can't pedal him to anyone in my dynasty so Jared Cook it is if this comes to anything

By the time we know if he's being charged etc., Cook may no longer be available for him.

I have Cook in my league and I wouldn't trade him for Hernandez straight up right now.

This is silly.

 

[3optic]

Have Daniels and Olsen but am reluctant to trade either. would kill depth

 

[Donsmith753]

Got a great response earlier...

"If Hernandez was serving a life sentence without the possibility of parole I still wouldn't accept this."

Let's see how serious he is. Propose it again.

It was Greg Olsen straight up, not that disgusting considering the rest of the roster is ready to compete.

 

[finito]

Can't pedal him to anyone in my dynasty so Jared Cook it is if this comes to anything

By the time we know if he's being charged etc., Cook may no longer be available for him.

I have Cook in my league and I wouldn't trade him for Hernandez straight up right now.

This is silly.

...unless it isn't.

 

[PIK95]

No arrest warrant. Happy I kept him now.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Got a great response earlier...

"If Hernandez was serving a life sentence without the possibility of parole I still wouldn't accept this."

Let's see how serious he is. Propose it again.

It was Greg Olsen straight up, not that disgusting considering the rest of the roster is ready to compete.

That's really not unreasonable at all IMO. Olsen gets zero respect though, so it's not that surprising.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

Can't pedal him to anyone in my dynasty so Jared Cook it is if this comes to anything

By the time we know if he's being charged etc., Cook may no longer be available for him.

I own Jared Cook as well as AHern ...just meant if the AHern case comes to something I am relying on JCook rest of year

 

[finito]

Can't pedal him to anyone in my dynasty so Jared Cook it is if this comes to anything

By the time we know if he's being charged etc., Cook may no longer be available for him.

I own Jared Cook as well as AHern ...just meant if the AHern case comes to something I am relying on JCook rest of year

Ah, gotcha. Could be worse, I think Cook will be relatively decent.

 

[KellysHeroes]

offered Delanie Walker and a 3rd, glad it was rejected after the recent news

 

[cstu]

No arrest warrant. Happy I kept him now.

Yet. SI is reporting he's likely to be arrested.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think this sums it up real nicely - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY

 

[ghostguy123]

Just saw him go for Housler + 2014 3rd in a 16 teamer

yeah, good haul for him right about now

Ugly. I would (and am) holding him in hopes of some sort of outcome of a 2013 full year suspension. In which case, I would be fine with that. He misses the year, big whoop. He missed almost all of last year. He is 24. it's dynasty. he will have 10 more years.

The possibility of that is soooooooooooooo much greater than taking some half-azzed deal IMO.

And no, I would not PAY two 1sts for him. But I would run to the computer to accept if I could get him for Housler and a 3rd

 

[bigmarc27]

Just saw him go for Housler + 2014 3rd in a 16 teamer

yeah, good haul for him right about now

Ugly. I would (and am) holding him in hopes of some sort of outcome of a 2013 full year suspension. In which case, I would be fine with that. He misses the year, big whoop. He missed almost all of last year. He is 24. it's dynasty. he will have 10 more years.

The possibility of that is soooooooooooooo much greater than taking some half-azzed deal IMO.

And no, I would not PAY two 1sts for him. But I would run to the computer to accept if I could get him for Housler and a 3rd

Hold onto that hope.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Offered Fred Davis and Eddie Lacy, who I took at 1.06. Because I'm actually trying to get a deal done, not just insult an owner whose player might be in trouble. No ones moving Hernadez for Jon Dwyer. But they might move him at a decent discount if you send a serious offer.

I've got Hernandez (non PPR) and I'd take this in a second.

That's easier to say 15 hours later. I withdrew the offer once more details started coming out.

 

[cstu]

Offered Fred Davis and Eddie Lacy, who I took at 1.06. Because I'm actually trying to get a deal done, not just insult an owner whose player might be in trouble. No ones moving Hernadez for Jon Dwyer. But they might move him at a decent discount if you send a serious offer.

I've got Hernandez (non PPR) and I'd take this in a second.

That's easier to say 15 hours later. I withdrew the offer once more details started coming out.

That guy is kicking himself right now.

 

[JustinHawkins]

I was just offered a 2014 3rd for him. I sold.

NOT!!!

 

[Dez]

Got a great response earlier...

"If Hernandez was serving a life sentence without the possibility of parole I still wouldn't accept this."

I just got 1 of those offers...Joe McKnight

 

[FantasyMan]

I was just offered a 2014 3rd for him. I sold.

NOT!!!

You should have.

 

[Dez]

Own Hernandez in 4 dynasty leagues, Gronk/Hernandez combo in 2 dynasty leagues, selected Hernandez in 3 more re-drafts already...not feeling great right now especially about the dynasty ones. Only worse possible news I could have got was that Dez was the guy involved.

 

[cstu]

I was just offered a 2014 3rd for him. I sold.

NOT!!!

You should have.

I'd rather go down with the ship than give him up for a 3rd.

 

[moderated]

at this point i think his value in rookie picks is in the late 2nd to early 3rd range.

using a pick like that which will most likely bust anyway is worth the risk that Hernandez gets off OJ style and only misses a season or two.

 

[cstu]

at this point i think his value in rookie picks is in the late 2nd to early 3rd range.

using a pick like that which will most likely bust anyway is worth the risk that Hernandez gets off OJ style and only misses a season or two.

It would take at least a mid 2nd to get my attention. The bust rate on late 2nd's and later are extremely high and at least I know he can be a stud if he plays. I'd rather hold onto him for less than that even if it means keeping him on the bench for a couple years while he's in jail.

 

[moderated]

at this point i think his value in rookie picks is in the late 2nd to early 3rd range.

using a pick like that which will most likely bust anyway is worth the risk that Hernandez gets off OJ style and only misses a season or two.

It would take at least a mid 2nd to get my attention. The bust rate on late 2nd's and later are extremely high and at least I know he can be a stud if he plays. I'd rather hold onto him for less than that even if it means keeping him on the bench for a couple years while he's in jail.

Definitely understandable. If i had him i'd probably just hope for the best at this point if i couldn't get a future 1st for him . he can hire the best attorneys,so dodging murder charges is possible unless the evidence is overwhelming.

 

[cstu]

A game up:

Smith, Torrey BAL WR

Fleener, Coby IND TE

B gave up:

Johnson, Stevie BUF WR

Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE

This just went down.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

A game up:

Smith, Torrey BAL WR

Fleener, Coby IND TE

B gave up:

Johnson, Stevie BUF WR

Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE

This just went down.

Yikes. Someone here really burying his head in the sand re the Hernandez situation. The guy who unloaded him for Smith/Fleener must have been dancing (or at least breathing a sigh of relief) after this one got finalized.

 

[madd futher]

Torrey Smith for Stevie Johnson is not a good deal. Johnson has a bad back.

 

[DansRams]

offered Escobar and TY Graham in a deep league....no response

 

[mzkp54]

Was offered a '14 2nd for him. Turned it down

 

[Coeur de Lion]

A game up:

Smith, Torrey BAL WR

Fleener, Coby IND TE

B gave up:

Johnson, Stevie BUF WR

Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE

This just went down.

Yikes. Someone here really burying his head in the sand re the Hernandez situation. The guy who unloaded him for Smith/Fleener must have

been dancing (or at least breathing a sigh of relief) after this one got finalized.

You're really jumping to conclusions here. I don't own Hernandez anywhere, and hate the Patroits and their fans with a passion, but jeez. The guy hasn't even been arrested yet, we have zero clue how involved he was, and he'll have the best legal team that money can buy. The only way that deal is awful is if Hernandez never plays again, which is only one of many, many possibilities here.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

A game up:

Smith, Torrey BAL WR

Fleener, Coby IND TE

B gave up:

Johnson, Stevie BUF WR

Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE

This just went down.

Yikes. Someone here really burying his head in the sand re the Hernandez situation. The guy who unloaded him for Smith/Fleener must have

been dancing (or at least breathing a sigh of relief) after this one got finalized.

You're really jumping to conclusions here. I don't own Hernandez anywhere, and hate the Patroits and their fans with a passion, but jeez. The guy hasn't even been arrested yet, we have zero clue how involved he was, and he'll have the best legal team that money can buy. The only way that deal is awful is if Hernandez never plays again, which is only one of many, many possibilities here.

I disagree. In FF what we do is project things, that's what FF is all about. We don't have 'zero clue how involved he was.' To ignore completely what has been reported so far, to not take it all into account as part of our own personal 'big picture' (which will vary from fantasy player to fantasy player) is either lazy or senseless or denial. Sure, any outcome from never missing a game to never playing another game is POSSIBLE, but we are in the business of projecting likely outcomes. My personal guess at this point is that he does not play at all this year. My own guess may be wrong, and that's fine, but I can't just bury my head in the sand about it and pretend there's nothing going on. Smart owners project how it will play out, not merely wait until it is all wrapped up with a pretty little bow on top.

Now, I'll also say that I'm high on Fleener and have Torrey Smith at dynasty WR16 in my latest rankings. Steve Johnson has a back problem, is affected by the drafting of 1st and 3rd round WRs this year and a 3rd round WR last year, plus a very talented but troubled player added in Da'Rick Rogers. Johnson's arrow is pointing down, not up, and I have him at dynasty WR35. I don't think this is an unreasonable trade even if Hernandez isn't in a legal mess. Add the likelihood he misses most or all of this season (my opinion), and the possibility he misses multiple seasons while in prison, and this is an easy win for the owner disposing of him.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Yeah, we totally disagree on Smith, Johnson, and Fleener then.

But Hernandez is only 23 and missing all of 2013 (which is FAR from a given at this point) really doesn't kill his value at all. And IMO if they had enough to indict him, or the other guys, for ANYTHING, he'd be arrested already. This is a huge high pressure case, and they'll also want to put pressure on all three guys to try and make someone roll over on the shooter.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

Yeah, we totally disagree on Smith, Johnson, and Fleener then.

But Hernandez is only 23 and missing all of 2013 (which is FAR from a given at this point) really doesn't kill his value at all. And IMO if they had enough to indict him, or the other guys, for ANYTHING, he'd be arrested already. This is a huge high pressure case, and they'll also want to put pressure on all three guys to try and make someone roll over on the shooter.

Opinions vary on players, so no big deal on the first part.

Concerning the fact that no one has been 'indicted' (I think you meant arrested) YET for anything is a little like seeing the tornado coming at your house but it's still standing so you're not going to worry about it being destroyed. They are still gathering and evaluating evidence before deciding what to charge each person with. That's how things are often done. Don't confuse timing with innocence.