Aaron Hernandez current dynasty value (1 Viewer)

Adam Harstad said:

cstu said:

Adam Harstad said:

jurb26 said:

Why are people so quick to assume that yf he goes to prison for an extended period of time he can just come back and pick up where he left off? Because Vick did it? That is a bold assumption IMO. There is just as good a chance he gets totally out of shape and never has an impact.

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Vick, Ricky Williams, Plaxico Burress. On defense, Bertrand Berry was out of the league for a couple of years. Hell, Brian Banks has been in prison since he was 18 and he's still drawing some interest around the league.

If a player in his early-to-mid 20s is motivated and really wants to get back into the NFL, history shows that it's achievable.

Click to expand...

I can't believe the denial going on about this. Hernandez was there when a man was executed in cold blood and then went home and did everything in his power to cover it up. I don't see the parallels to guys who killed dogs, smoked weed, and accidently discharged a gun in a club, etc.

Brian Banks' accuser admitted that she made up the story and he was released from prison.

Click to expand...

We don't know Hernandez was there. We know a car he rented was there, but he rented three cars- obviously he never intended to drive all of them. And even if Hernandez was there, what matters is what the police can prove. Ben Roethlisberger probably committed sexual assault, but the police couldn't prove it, and so he was never charged with it. We've seen celebrity entourages take the fall for guilty parties before, and we've seen seemingly fool-proof cases fall apart (hello, O.J.).

Brian Banks is a remarkable human being and an inspiration to us all. The fact that he was unjustly put through hell and yet still managed to come through the other side with a positive attitude is one of the most compelling testaments to the potential of humanity that I have ever seen. He is a hero. At the very best, Hernandez is a thug who has equipped and enabled the scum of the earth to perpetrate atrocities. At the worst, he is Joseph Conrad's Kurtz, an amoral monster and the human manifestation of unchecked evil. Comparing Hernandez to Brian Banks in terms of the quality of their integrity or the strength of their character would be deplorable. Fortunately for Hernandez, physical skill and athletic talent remains uncorrelated to integrity or character, and the example of Brian Banks can therefore be illustrative. Banks went to jail at age 18, never played football at a high level of competition, never had a chance to benefit from a quality strength and conditioning program, and yet was still able to get an NFL tryout upon his release, and by all accounts had physical ability and talent level comparable to an undrafted rookie free agent. This is absolutely remarkable. Brian Banks, along with the other players I mentioned, demonstrate that it is possible for a young man to spend several years away from the league and still return to it with enough athleticism and skill to compete at an NFL level. If Hernandez goes away to prison, the fact that he's a substantially worse human being than Brian Banks does not mean he will not be able to compete as well as Brian Banks upon his release.

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Well, if he can only compete as well as Banks upon a return after a multi-year hiatus, he won't have much fantasy value. In which case, he shouldn't be high in anyone's rankings and is not worth a roster spot. Perhaps we agree after all...

Bruce Hammond said:

I've updated my Footballguys dynasty rankings, and I have Hernandez at TE30. I was tempted to remove him altogether, but i'll wait on that to see just how long he is away. Six other staffers have updated rankings on 6/19 or after (the day the news broke), and they all have him between TE3 and TE10.

My TE30 ranking assumes:

1) He does not play in 2013.

2) He most likely does not play in 2014.

3) There is a better than 50-50 chance he goes to prison for multiple years, convicted on a charge relating to murder (ie, conspiracy, accessory, murder itself -- not just obstruction).

4) He may receive a lifetime ban from the NFL.

5) If he does return to the NFL at some point, it will not be as a Patriot with Brady throwing him the ball.

As the picture becomes clearer in one direction or another I'll adjust, either by moving him back up some if I've over-reacted or by removing him completely if some of the more dire negative possibilities become closer to fact. At this point though, I'd not recommend investing in him as more than an afterthought end-of-bench guy, because I view the negative outcomes as more likely than him regaining fantasy relevance.

In any case, he'll never again be on any of my own rosters.

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Although your #4 doesn't quite track. Sounds like your ranking is assuming he will not receive a lifetime ban, or he wouldn't be as high as #30.

This is a good example of what I have felt for years that staffers should do with their rankings: project an actual outcome and rank accordingly, understanding that new information will lead to adjusting the ranking again.

Just Win Baby said:

Adam Harstad said:

cstu said:

Adam Harstad said:

jurb26 said:

Why are people so quick to assume that yf he goes to prison for an extended period of time he can just come back and pick up where he left off? Because Vick did it? That is a bold assumption IMO. There is just as good a chance he gets totally out of shape and never has an impact.

Click to expand...

Vick, Ricky Williams, Plaxico Burress. On defense, Bertrand Berry was out of the league for a couple of years. Hell, Brian Banks has been in prison since he was 18 and he's still drawing some interest around the league.

If a player in his early-to-mid 20s is motivated and really wants to get back into the NFL, history shows that it's achievable.

Click to expand...

I can't believe the denial going on about this. Hernandez was there when a man was executed in cold blood and then went home and did everything in his power to cover it up. I don't see the parallels to guys who killed dogs, smoked weed, and accidently discharged a gun in a club, etc.

Brian Banks' accuser admitted that she made up the story and he was released from prison.

Click to expand...

We don't know Hernandez was there. We know a car he rented was there, but he rented three cars- obviously he never intended to drive all of them. And even if Hernandez was there, what matters is what the police can prove. Ben Roethlisberger probably committed sexual assault, but the police couldn't prove it, and so he was never charged with it. We've seen celebrity entourages take the fall for guilty parties before, and we've seen seemingly fool-proof cases fall apart (hello, O.J.).

Brian Banks is a remarkable human being and an inspiration to us all. The fact that he was unjustly put through hell and yet still managed to come through the other side with a positive attitude is one of the most compelling testaments to the potential of humanity that I have ever seen. He is a hero. At the very best, Hernandez is a thug who has equipped and enabled the scum of the earth to perpetrate atrocities. At the worst, he is Joseph Conrad's Kurtz, an amoral monster and the human manifestation of unchecked evil. Comparing Hernandez to Brian Banks in terms of the quality of their integrity or the strength of their character would be deplorable. Fortunately for Hernandez, physical skill and athletic talent remains uncorrelated to integrity or character, and the example of Brian Banks can therefore be illustrative. Banks went to jail at age 18, never played football at a high level of competition, never had a chance to benefit from a quality strength and conditioning program, and yet was still able to get an NFL tryout upon his release, and by all accounts had physical ability and talent level comparable to an undrafted rookie free agent. This is absolutely remarkable. Brian Banks, along with the other players I mentioned, demonstrate that it is possible for a young man to spend several years away from the league and still return to it with enough athleticism and skill to compete at an NFL level. If Hernandez goes away to prison, the fact that he's a substantially worse human being than Brian Banks does not mean he will not be able to compete as well as Brian Banks upon his release.

Click to expand...

Well, if he can only compete as well as Banks upon a return after a multi-year hiatus, he won't have much fantasy value. In which case, he shouldn't be high in anyone's rankings and is not worth a roster spot. Perhaps we agree after all...

Click to expand...

Brian Banks was a top high school recruit who performed like a UFA despite never having access to any division 1 or NFL resources or training. He performed at a level way above what anyone would have expected given his history before jail. Aaron Hernandez is already a star at the NFL level. He doesn't need to improve as much as Banks did, he simply needs to avoid regressing.

Plaxico and Williams were both much older when they made their comeback than Hernandez in this hypothetical, yet they still managed to perform admirably. Despite returning at an age when many top WRs are beginning to call it a career, Burress had one of the better age 34 seasons in history. Ricky Williams was even better- only one RB in history had more fantasy points at age 32 (Walter Payton). It took him a while to work himself back into shape, but he still managed to do it, and at a much more advanced age than the Hypothetical Hernandez.

The point is that guys who leave the league at a time when they are top talents have usually been able to return to the league, provided they were willing to dedicate themselves to the task. So, hypothetically speaking, if our hypothetical Hernandez leaves the league for some hypothetical period of time, but shows some hypothetical dedication to returning, he could still hypothetically hold value in future seasons.

This discussion is largely academic for me, though, as I still do not expect him to miss more than a single season.

Just Win Baby said:

Bruce Hammond said:

I've updated my Footballguys dynasty rankings, and I have Hernandez at TE30. I was tempted to remove him altogether, but i'll wait on that to see just how long he is away. Six other staffers have updated rankings on 6/19 or after (the day the news broke), and they all have him between TE3 and TE10.

My TE30 ranking assumes:

1) He does not play in 2013.

2) He most likely does not play in 2014.

3) There is a better than 50-50 chance he goes to prison for multiple years, convicted on a charge relating to murder (ie, conspiracy, accessory, murder itself -- not just obstruction).

4) He may receive a lifetime ban from the NFL.

5) If he does return to the NFL at some point, it will not be as a Patriot with Brady throwing him the ball.

As the picture becomes clearer in one direction or another I'll adjust, either by moving him back up some if I've over-reacted or by removing him completely if some of the more dire negative possibilities become closer to fact. At this point though, I'd not recommend investing in him as more than an afterthought end-of-bench guy, because I view the negative outcomes as more likely than him regaining fantasy relevance.

In any case, he'll never again be on any of my own rosters.

Click to expand...

Although your #4 doesn't quite track. Sounds like your ranking is assuming he will not receive a lifetime ban, or he wouldn't be as high as #30.

This is a good example of what I have felt for years that staffers should do with their rankings: project an actual outcome and rank accordingly, understanding that new information will lead to adjusting the ranking again.

Click to expand...

Hey, I did the same thing (projected an outcome, explained why I was projecting it, ranked accordingly). You're just dropping the on Hammond because you agree with him.

Bruce Hammond said:

I've updated my Footballguys dynasty rankings, and I have Hernandez at TE30. I was tempted to remove him altogether, but i'll wait on that to see just how long he is away. Six other staffers have updated rankings on 6/19 or after (the day the news broke), and they all have him between TE3 and TE10.

My TE30 ranking assumes:

1) He does not play in 2013.

2) He most likely does not play in 2014.

3) There is a better than 50-50 chance he goes to prison for multiple years, convicted on a charge relating to murder (ie, conspiracy, accessory, murder itself -- not just obstruction).

4) He may receive a lifetime ban from the NFL.

5) If he does return to the NFL at some point, it will not be as a Patriot with Brady throwing him the ball.

As the picture becomes clearer in one direction or another I'll adjust, either by moving him back up some if I've over-reacted or by removing him completely if some of the more dire negative possibilities become closer to fact. At this point though, I'd not recommend investing in him as more than an afterthought end-of-bench guy, because I view the negative outcomes as more likely than him regaining fantasy relevance.

In any case, he'll never again be on any of my own rosters.

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I can see that arguably as ballpark. I might rank him there although I consider him next to worthless. But, considering what one can currently find at TE30 (Zach Miller and Marcedes Lewis per staff consensus) he has as much or as little value as those players (who I wouldn't roster either).

IMO his only value is to his current owners and a long term hold would have to be in a roster of 28+ - and that assumes there are no other available prospects that look better that can be acquired either via trade or on the waiver wire.

A hold for his desperate current owners right now, but I seriously doubt, as events unfold in the coming months, that anyone in retrospect will view his current value as a buy low opportunity.

Adam Harstad said:

Just Win Baby said:

Adam Harstad said:

cstu said:

Adam Harstad said:

jurb26 said:

Why are people so quick to assume that yf he goes to prison for an extended period of time he can just come back and pick up where he left off? Because Vick did it? That is a bold assumption IMO. There is just as good a chance he gets totally out of shape and never has an impact.

Click to expand...

Vick, Ricky Williams, Plaxico Burress. On defense, Bertrand Berry was out of the league for a couple of years. Hell, Brian Banks has been in prison since he was 18 and he's still drawing some interest around the league.

If a player in his early-to-mid 20s is motivated and really wants to get back into the NFL, history shows that it's achievable.

Click to expand...

I can't believe the denial going on about this. Hernandez was there when a man was executed in cold blood and then went home and did everything in his power to cover it up. I don't see the parallels to guys who killed dogs, smoked weed, and accidently discharged a gun in a club, etc.

Brian Banks' accuser admitted that she made up the story and he was released from prison.

Click to expand...

We don't know Hernandez was there. We know a car he rented was there, but he rented three cars- obviously he never intended to drive all of them. And even if Hernandez was there, what matters is what the police can prove. Ben Roethlisberger probably committed sexual assault, but the police couldn't prove it, and so he was never charged with it. We've seen celebrity entourages take the fall for guilty parties before, and we've seen seemingly fool-proof cases fall apart (hello, O.J.).

Brian Banks is a remarkable human being and an inspiration to us all. The fact that he was unjustly put through hell and yet still managed to come through the other side with a positive attitude is one of the most compelling testaments to the potential of humanity that I have ever seen. He is a hero. At the very best, Hernandez is a thug who has equipped and enabled the scum of the earth to perpetrate atrocities. At the worst, he is Joseph Conrad's Kurtz, an amoral monster and the human manifestation of unchecked evil. Comparing Hernandez to Brian Banks in terms of the quality of their integrity or the strength of their character would be deplorable. Fortunately for Hernandez, physical skill and athletic talent remains uncorrelated to integrity or character, and the example of Brian Banks can therefore be illustrative. Banks went to jail at age 18, never played football at a high level of competition, never had a chance to benefit from a quality strength and conditioning program, and yet was still able to get an NFL tryout upon his release, and by all accounts had physical ability and talent level comparable to an undrafted rookie free agent. This is absolutely remarkable. Brian Banks, along with the other players I mentioned, demonstrate that it is possible for a young man to spend several years away from the league and still return to it with enough athleticism and skill to compete at an NFL level. If Hernandez goes away to prison, the fact that he's a substantially worse human being than Brian Banks does not mean he will not be able to compete as well as Brian Banks upon his release.

Click to expand...

Well, if he can only compete as well as Banks upon a return after a multi-year hiatus, he won't have much fantasy value. In which case, he shouldn't be high in anyone's rankings and is not worth a roster spot. Perhaps we agree after all...

Click to expand...

Brian Banks was a top high school recruit who performed like a UFA despite never having access to any division 1 or NFL resources or training. He performed at a level way above what anyone would have expected given his history before jail. Aaron Hernandez is already a star at the NFL level. He doesn't need to improve as much as Banks did, he simply needs to avoid regressing.

Plaxico and Williams were both much older when they made their comeback than Hernandez in this hypothetical, yet they still managed to perform admirably. Despite returning at an age when many top WRs are beginning to call it a career, Burress had one of the better age 34 seasons in history. Ricky Williams was even better- only one RB in history had more fantasy points at age 32 (Walter Payton). It took him a while to work himself back into shape, but he still managed to do it, and at a much more advanced age than the Hypothetical Hernandez.

The point is that guys who leave the league at a time when they are top talents have usually been able to return to the league, provided they were willing to dedicate themselves to the task. So, hypothetically speaking, if our hypothetical Hernandez leaves the league for some hypothetical period of time, but shows some hypothetical dedication to returning, he could still hypothetically hold value in future seasons.

This discussion is largely academic for me, though, as I still do not expect him to miss more than a single season.

Just Win Baby said:

Bruce Hammond said:

I've updated my Footballguys dynasty rankings, and I have Hernandez at TE30. I was tempted to remove him altogether, but i'll wait on that to see just how long he is away. Six other staffers have updated rankings on 6/19 or after (the day the news broke), and they all have him between TE3 and TE10.

My TE30 ranking assumes:

1) He does not play in 2013.

2) He most likely does not play in 2014.

3) There is a better than 50-50 chance he goes to prison for multiple years, convicted on a charge relating to murder (ie, conspiracy, accessory, murder itself -- not just obstruction).

4) He may receive a lifetime ban from the NFL.

5) If he does return to the NFL at some point, it will not be as a Patriot with Brady throwing him the ball.

As the picture becomes clearer in one direction or another I'll adjust, either by moving him back up some if I've over-reacted or by removing him completely if some of the more dire negative possibilities become closer to fact. At this point though, I'd not recommend investing in him as more than an afterthought end-of-bench guy, because I view the negative outcomes as more likely than him regaining fantasy relevance.

In any case, he'll never again be on any of my own rosters.

Click to expand...

Although your #4 doesn't quite track. Sounds like your ranking is assuming he will not receive a lifetime ban, or he wouldn't be as high as #30.

This is a good example of what I have felt for years that staffers should do with their rankings: project an actual outcome and rank accordingly, understanding that new information will lead to adjusting the ranking again.

Click to expand...

Hey, I did the same thing (projected an outcome, explained why I was projecting it, ranked accordingly). You're just dropping the on Hammond because you agree with him.

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Of course.

I think Adam is trying hard to look for wiggle room for Hernandez, but if the following is true, I'm not sure there's much . . .

It's been reported that the cops have video with the other two guys, the dead guy, and Hernandez DRIVING the SUV. They also have the 3 survivors on video arriving at Hernandez' house minutes after gunshots were reported . . . an hour after they left Dorchester (an hour away). The deceased was shot execution style with multiple gunshot wounds.

Even if Hernandez DIDN'T pull the trigger, I can't see any other outcome than him being charged as an accessory to murder (before and after the fact), conspiracy to commit murder, harboring a criminal, obstructing justice, destroying evidence (probably rolled into obstructing justice), possibly illegal possession of a firearm, failure to report a crime, and probably more that I am missing.

IMO, his chance to get out of this was ratting on the other guys ASAP and alleging that he himself was forced at gunpoint to transport the other 2 guys wherever they wanted and being threatened that if he squealed they would come back and kill him. The only other (mostly implausible) story would be if Hernandez was told to drive to where the guy was shot and someone else was there to do the shooting, but even then he would know what happened. I think him not telling the police willingly what went down will come back to haunt him. He's certainly not acting innocent. One would have thought that his attorney would have been out in front of this claiming his innocence, but we haven't even seen that.

I still think that as soon as he is charged and further implicated in all of this, Goodell OR Kraft will suspend him indefinitely. I don't see an NFL player, in the game the way it is today, allowing someone tied to a murder in cold blood, execution style, being allowed to suit up.

Even though Lewis may have been charged with murder, the circumstances were totally different. His case involved a brawl. An every man for himself, not premeditated street fight where people were defending themselves. That's way different than a guy on his knees getting popped multiple times in the back of the head.

I still think the cops have way more info/intel/evidence than they are offering up to the media, and given the other examples where people walked, they are trying to make sure they are doing things 100% to the letter to avoid any loopholes or sloppy police work. There really is no rush for them to charge someone IMMEDIATELY, and the longer things drag on, THE WORSE it will be for Hernandez. If he gets an indefinite suspension, the longer it takes, the longer he sits out. I doubt he will get a lot of sympathy from the court system, so I doubt they will be nice and postpone court dates to work around his football schedule (especially if he is suspended anyway).

As for negotiating a deal, I'm not sure the two other guys are going to just roll over and agree to be patsies and take the fall for Hernandez. I think the cops are biding their time waiting for the 3 men to communicate with each other to get their stories straight. Hernandez certainly hasn't been a P.R. or media darling, as he hasn't talked to the press, he hasn't expressed his condolences, and has generally looked both guilty and stupid at the same time. Even with his broken phone and video system, if he wanted to try to make a case that someone else broke it, he could have made an out crying that someone else did it. (Maybe he did and we just haven't heard that side of it yet.)

No matter how long he is out, I still think a lot of his value is derived from playing on the Patriots and playing with Tom Brady and the NE coaching staff. Put him on CLE or JAX right now and I don't see him worth anywhere near as high.

Maybe I am being overly critical and cynical here, but we are basically a week into this and Hernandez has done little to try to show he's innocent. I realize it's the state's job to prove he's guilty and not his job to have to prove he's innocent. But he's making himself, the Pats, and the league look pretty bad up until now . . . which will only lend itself to him getting suspended.

Anarchy.

And the fact that the lawsuit in Florida is eerily similar (4 guys in a car leaving a bar and one gets shot) takes things from bad to worse.

Rumor from a friend of a player is that hernandez has been unofficially told he's gone.

Re: Anarchy's post.

To be devil's advocate on the Ray situation, Ray testified that he knew his friends bought knives at Sports Authority that week and knew that his friends used the knives in the fight. You can infer from the medical examiner's testimony that the wounds were made to kill. And Ray ditched his white suit in a fast food dumpster to cover up his involvement however limited. Obviously they got off because the jury believed they acted in self defense. Also they couldn't pin the use of the knives on them due to lack of fingerprints. The other interpretation that they bought knives that week to use in a fight against the people they fought against is also possible.

AH loses value once he gets booted from NE, but it's not the end of the world. Anarchy mentions CLE as a possible black hole of value, but we're also concurrently pumping up Jordan Cameron to TE1 status due to the TE-friendliness of the CLE offense. If AH was cleared of possibility of suspension and picked up by CLE, he would still be the dynasty TE#3. The number of destinations where he is not a TE1 is very small and probably 0.

thriftyrocker said:

Re: Anarchy's post.

To be devil's advocate on the Ray situation, Ray testified that he knew his friends bought knives at Sports Authority that week and knew that his friends used the knives in the fight. You can infer from the medical examiner's testimony that the wounds were made to kill. And Ray ditched his white suit in a fast food dumpster to cover up his involvement however limited. Obviously they got off because the jury believed they acted in self defense. Also they couldn't pin the use of the knives on them due to lack of fingerprints. The other interpretation that they bought knives that week to use in a fight against the people they fought against is also possible.

AH loses value once he gets booted from NE, but it's not the end of the world. Anarchy mentions CLE as a possible black hole of value, but we're also concurrently pumping up Jordan Cameron to TE1 status due to the TE-friendliness of the CLE offense. If AH was cleared of possibility of suspension and picked up by CLE, he would still be the dynasty TE#3. The number of destinations where he is not a TE1 is very small and probably 0.

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He would end up on the Raiders or Jets long before the Browns.

And neither OAK nor NY have any receivers better than him. You could see him being the #1 target in either situation. Myers put up 800 yards last year albeit with a different QB. Keller's prorated numbers last year would be 634 yards. And he is better than both those guys, right.

Cameron could facepalm this year and Banner loves cheap contracts. I wouldn't rule it out. But I only mention CLE because Anarchy mentioned it.

Few situations give him the upside he had in NE, but no situations are truly bad. If you don't believe in his talent to begin with, that's fine, but if you think he could go to a place like CLE or OAK and start and be the 1st or 2nd target then yeah, situation isn't something I'd be worried about too much.

The bad situations are really more like what happened to Eifert. Offenses that want to go 2TE that don't have enough stats to feed 2 TE. Not sure who those would be. But make him the 1st target on a bad offense, that'd be fine.

feel bad for Hernandez FF owners, theres enough to worry about during the off-season when comes to a player's value (will their replacement be drafted this yr, will the offensive scheme change, will they get hurt) and now more and more we need to worry about character concerns. Its bad enough when one of you players get suspended but when one of your players gets caught up in a murder investigation and commits some suspicious acts its not good.

I fully expect Hernandez to play again, not this yr but maybe at some point in 2014. Theres a lot of risks even if you do expect him to play again; will be be back on Pats(cut him or trade him away)? Will be on a team that caters to his skill set? Right now I wouldn't buy or sell him for anything more than an avg starting TE (12 team value), and usually the avg starting TE will cost you around a late 2nd round pick and the time to buy will be best once he starts missing time this yr.

KellysHeroes said:

feel bad for Hernandez FF owners, theres enough to worry about during the off-season when comes to a player's value (will their replacement be drafted this yr, will the offensive scheme change, will they get hurt) and now more and more we need to worry about character concerns. Its bad enough when one of you players get suspended but when one of your players gets caught up in a murder investigation and commits some suspicious acts its not good.

I fully expect Hernandez to play again, not this yr but maybe at some point in 2014. Theres a lot of risks even if you do expect him to play again; will be be back on Pats(cut him or trade him away)? Will be on a team that caters to his skill set? Right now I wouldn't buy or sell him for anything more than an avg starting TE (12 team value), and usually the avg starting TE will cost you around a late 2nd round pick and the time to buy will be best once he starts missing time this yr.

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As far as possible outcomes go, I would be interested to hear how Hernandez misses the 2013 season but is available in 2014. Are you suggesting that he gets suspended for the upcoming year, but somehow there is a speedy trial and he gets acquitted on all charges and therefore makes it back at some point in the 2014 season?

I'm not sure there is an outcome where he goes on trial, serves time, and still could be reinstated and play in 2014. So I guess I am asking if this all goes to trial, are you suggesting he is found not guilty of anything. (I know that's hard to answer given what little we know so far.)

Anarchy99 said:

KellysHeroes said:

feel bad for Hernandez FF owners, theres enough to worry about during the off-season when comes to a player's value (will their replacement be drafted this yr, will the offensive scheme change, will they get hurt) and now more and more we need to worry about character concerns. Its bad enough when one of you players get suspended but when one of your players gets caught up in a murder investigation and commits some suspicious acts its not good.

I fully expect Hernandez to play again, not this yr but maybe at some point in 2014. Theres a lot of risks even if you do expect him to play again; will be be back on Pats(cut him or trade him away)? Will be on a team that caters to his skill set? Right now I wouldn't buy or sell him for anything more than an avg starting TE (12 team value), and usually the avg starting TE will cost you around a late 2nd round pick and the time to buy will be best once he starts missing time this yr.

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As far as possible outcomes go, I would be interested to hear how Hernandez misses the 2013 season but is available in 2014. Are you suggesting that he gets suspended for the upcoming year, but somehow there is a speedy trial and he gets acquitted on all charges and therefore makes it back at some point in the 2014 season?

I'm not sure there is an outcome where he goes on trial, serves time, and still could be reinstated and play in 2014. So I guess I am asking if this all goes to trial, are you suggesting he is found not guilty of anything. (I know that's hard to answer given what little we know so far.)

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just where i put my value and what my gut says right now; he'll be back at some point in 14. I posted my thoughts about where this investigation is going and what the most likely outcome will be in the 28+ page thread.

ConnSKINS26 said:

Pulled the trigger. Now a disappointed, but less worried, Owen Daniels/Deonte Thompson owner.

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I just dealt AH for Ryan Broyles and a 2014 3rd. Turned it down last week, he resubmitted and I took it this week.

Just saw him moved for Jason freaking Witten in one of my leagues. My GF knows who Aaron Hernandez is now, due to this. How can a dynasty owner not know what's going on?

Likely droppable now for dynasty owners.

Props to those who were able to get something of value before the pats released him

Still holding...

Mr Non Sequitur said:

We might have seen the last of Hernandez in an NFL uniform so I probably wouldn't offer much if anything for him. 2013 certainly is going to be a no go once I am done ruling on this. If Ben could miss a month, Hernandez can sit out a season.

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We got to this point a lot quicker than I originally thought

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

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These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

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Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

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These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

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Bruce Hammond said:

I wouldn't trade anything I really valued for him at this point. Chances are pretty good Hernandez is about to be valueless for awhile. How long awhile is I don't know, but I think it's pretty unlikely he's going to walk away from this free and clear. And the possibility his career is over is very real.

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Post #22, page 1, six days ago.

To all those who continued to trade for the guy, thinking you were buying low despite the information that has been known for days and the painfully obvious expectation that this day was coming, live and learn.

lexdizzle said:

Props to those who were able to get something of value before the pats released him

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Yep. Those holding now hold someone who's waiver fodder.

Bruce Hammond said:

Bruce Hammond said:

I wouldn't trade anything I really valued for him at this point. Chances are pretty good Hernandez is about to be valueless for awhile. How long awhile is I don't know, but I think it's pretty unlikely he's going to walk away from this free and clear. And the possibility his career is over is very real.

Click to expand...

Post #22, page 1, six days ago.

To all those who continued to trade for the guy despite the information that has been known for days and the painfully obvious expectation that this day was coming, thinking you were buying low, live and learn.

Click to expand...

Not really ....

The release is shocking. The cap implications will hurt the Pats. Even if he was 100% guilty it would have been better for the Pats to wait for the legal proceedings to go through or for Goodell to suspend him.

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Still going to buy. He can go to jail and be suspended for a long time, and it's still worth it in some leagues. Depends on your roster size - Zealots, for instance, I'm a big-time buyer on the cheap. I cut most 5th/6th rounders anyway...

Hernandez got turfed in my rankings. I was not aware before that the police allegedly had video of Hernandez driving the other three immediately prior to the murder- I agree that that changes everything, and I think his chances of playing this year are ludicrously low. I've still got him ranked in the 30s in redraft because, honestly, TE3s are all garbage. I'd rather take a gamble with a 99% chance of being complete a complete zero and a 1% chance of being a top-5 TE than take a gamble on a guy with a 75% chance of being essentially a zero and a 25% chance of being very marginally better than whatever is available on waivers. Worst case scenario with Hernandez is he misses the season, and you have an empty roster spot for whoever your week 1 waiver claim is. Best (but extremely implausible) scenario is quality fantasy production. I'll take that gamble any day over a Delanie Walker, Lance Kendricks, or Chris Gragg. More likely, I only roster 2 TEs and pass on all of them.

Hernandez currently sits in the mid-20s in my Dynasty rankings for a similar reason. He's talented enough that, like Thrifty, I don't think there are really "bad landing spots" for him. Maybe nowhere would be as good as New England, but he can either get his 800 yards efficiently as the 2nd or 3rd target in an elite offense, or he can get them inefficiently as the only decent option on a crummy offense, it makes no difference to me. Things don't look good for him at all, but I'd still rather take a chance on a guy who I believed had the potential to be a worthwhile fantasy TE than on a guy who I think quite simply doesn't have the talent to ever be fantasy relevant.

meyerj31 said:

Bruce Hammond said:

Bruce Hammond said:

I wouldn't trade anything I really valued for him at this point. Chances are pretty good Hernandez is about to be valueless for awhile. How long awhile is I don't know, but I think it's pretty unlikely he's going to walk away from this free and clear. And the possibility his career is over is very real.

Click to expand...

Post #22, page 1, six days ago.

To all those who continued to trade for the guy despite the information that has been known for days and the painfully obvious expectation that this day was coming, thinking you were buying low, live and learn.

Click to expand...

Not really ....

The release is shocking. The cap implications will hurt the Pats. Even if he was 100% guilty it would have been better for the Pats to wait for the legal proceedings to go through or for Goodell to suspend him.

Click to expand...

Yes really. You have been one of the worst Hernandez apologists in these threads so it doesn't surprise me you are floored, but for many of us it was just a matter of time that he was arrested and gone from NE. It doesn't matter if he is cut today or in 3 months, the value result is still the same. And he'll be convicted too, and go to prison, and if you still want to hold out hope for him that those things won't happen be my guest.

jmo87usc said:

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Click to expand...

You don't understand what you had in Fleener it's pretty obvious to me. Let's talk in 2-3 years.

Instinctive said:

Still going to buy. He can go to jail and be suspended for a long time, and it's still worth it in some leagues. Depends on your roster size - Zealots, for instance, I'm a big-time buyer on the cheap. I cut most 5th/6th rounders anyway...

Click to expand...

Caveat emptor - he is not playing another down in the NFL.

The Patriots decision to outright cut him rather than wait for Goodell to suspend suggests to me that AH is in deep #### here. If he was involved as an accessory to murder, the NFL is never going to allow him back in.

jmo87usc said:

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Click to expand...

When you drafted Coby Fleener last season did you consider him worthless and a wasted pick - because you seem to be acting that way now.

Not commenting on the trade itself - but your over the top defense of it makes it look like you were foolish to draft COBY FLEENER in the first place.

Instinctive said:

Still going to buy. He can go to jail and be suspended for a long time, and it's still worth it in some leagues. Depends on your roster size - Zealots, for instance, I'm a big-time buyer on the cheap. I cut most 5th/6th rounders anyway...

Click to expand...

go for it. He'll probably never play another down in the NFL, but if you like seeing his name on your roster, taking up space, knock yourself out.

Adam Harstad said:

Hernandez got turfed in my rankings. I was not aware before that the police allegedly had video of Hernandez driving the other three immediately prior to the murder- I agree that that changes everything, and I think his chances of playing this year are ludicrously low. I've still got him ranked in the 30s in redraft because, honestly, TE3s are all garbage. I'd rather take a gamble with a 99% chance of being complete a complete zero and a 1% chance of being a top-5 TE than take a gamble on a guy with a 75% chance of being essentially a zero and a 25% chance of being very marginally better than whatever is available on waivers. Worst case scenario with Hernandez is he misses the season, and you have an empty roster spot for whoever your week 1 waiver claim is. Best (but extremely implausible) scenario is quality fantasy production. I'll take that gamble any day over a Delanie Walker, Lance Kendricks, or Chris Gragg. More likely, I only roster 2 TEs and pass on all of them.

Hernandez currently sits in the mid-20s in my Dynasty rankings for a similar reason. He's talented enough that, like Thrifty, I don't think there are really "bad landing spots" for him. Maybe nowhere would be as good as New England, but he can either get his 800 yards efficiently as the 2nd or 3rd target in an elite offense, or he can get them inefficiently as the only decent option on a crummy offense, it makes no difference to me. Things don't look good for him at all, but I'd still rather take a chance on a guy who I believed had the potential to be a worthwhile fantasy TE than on a guy who I think quite simply doesn't have the talent to ever be fantasy relevant.

Click to expand...

Did you just wake up?

He is not playing at all this year, and it won't be with Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. 0% chance he performs at a top-16 level TE this year.

Dr. Octopus said:

jmo87usc said:

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Click to expand...

When you drafted Coby Fleener last season did you consider him worthless and a wasted pick - because you seem to be acting that way now.

Not commenting on the trade itself - but your over the top defense of it makes it look like you were foolish to draft COBY FLEENER in the first place.

Click to expand...

The trade was bad then.... and unthinkable now.

Didn't trade for him in any leagues, next decision is how long to hold. Only leagues I have him in are 30+ roster spots so I'm going to wait a bit.

Bruce Hammond said:

Instinctive said:

Still going to buy. He can go to jail and be suspended for a long time, and it's still worth it in some leagues. Depends on your roster size - Zealots, for instance, I'm a big-time buyer on the cheap. I cut most 5th/6th rounders anyway...

Click to expand...

go for it. He'll probably never play another down in the NFL, but if you like seeing his name on your roster, taking up space, knock yourself out.

Click to expand...

Yeah, let's lock this thread cause this thing is over.

Bruce Hammond said:

jmo87usc said:

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Click to expand...

You don't understand what you had in Fleener it's pretty obvious to me. Let's talk in 2-3 years.

Click to expand...

I do understand. But I also understand that Hernandez is 100x better if he turned out to be innocent. If I knew things were going to turn this way 8 days ago, I wouldn't have made the deal. It's called taking a risk. I like betting on Long Shots, what can I say?

What are we going to talk about in 2-3 years? That I'm an idiot and Fleener is awesome? That Hernandez got acquitted and is fantasy relevent again playing for the Raiders? That Fleener was a bust? The jury is literally still out on all of this stuff. You guys act like I gave up Jimmy Graham for him.

Bruce Hammond said:

Instinctive said:

Still going to buy. He can go to jail and be suspended for a long time, and it's still worth it in some leagues. Depends on your roster size - Zealots, for instance, I'm a big-time buyer on the cheap. I cut most 5th/6th rounders anyway...

Click to expand...

go for it. He'll probably never play another down in the NFL, but if you like seeing his name on your roster, taking up space, knock yourself out.

Click to expand...

With a 53-man roster, I would WAY rather burn the spot on a guy who has the tiniest of chances to be a difference maker even 5 years from now than the next Xavier Omon, or a 7th LB, or some other player who probably is never going to contribute.

Dr. Octopus said:

jmo87usc said:

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Click to expand...

When you drafted Coby Fleener last season did you consider him worthless and a wasted pick - because you seem to be acting that way now.

Not commenting on the trade itself - but your over the top defense of it makes it look like you were foolish to draft COBY FLEENER in the first place.

Click to expand...

I didn't draft Fleener, but got him as an add on in another deal. That's the second time you've incorrectly assumed something about me today.

Sinn Fein said:

Adam Harstad said:

Hernandez got turfed in my rankings. I was not aware before that the police allegedly had video of Hernandez driving the other three immediately prior to the murder- I agree that that changes everything, and I think his chances of playing this year are ludicrously low. I've still got him ranked in the 30s in redraft because, honestly, TE3s are all garbage. I'd rather take a gamble with a 99% chance of being complete a complete zero and a 1% chance of being a top-5 TE than take a gamble on a guy with a 75% chance of being essentially a zero and a 25% chance of being very marginally better than whatever is available on waivers. Worst case scenario with Hernandez is he misses the season, and you have an empty roster spot for whoever your week 1 waiver claim is. Best (but extremely implausible) scenario is quality fantasy production. I'll take that gamble any day over a Delanie Walker, Lance Kendricks, or Chris Gragg. More likely, I only roster 2 TEs and pass on all of them.

Hernandez currently sits in the mid-20s in my Dynasty rankings for a similar reason. He's talented enough that, like Thrifty, I don't think there are really "bad landing spots" for him. Maybe nowhere would be as good as New England, but he can either get his 800 yards efficiently as the 2nd or 3rd target in an elite offense, or he can get them inefficiently as the only decent option on a crummy offense, it makes no difference to me. Things don't look good for him at all, but I'd still rather take a chance on a guy who I believed had the potential to be a worthwhile fantasy TE than on a guy who I think quite simply doesn't have the talent to ever be fantasy relevant.

Click to expand...

Did you just wake up?He is not playing at all this year, and it won't be with Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. 0% chance he performs at a top-16 level TE this year.

Click to expand...

0% is a pretty small number. I'd put it more at 1%. If the NFL lasted for another hundred years, and every single offseason a player got caught up in an execution-style murder investigation like this, I don't think it's crazy to think that one- just one- of those guys would manage to beat the rap and play.As I said, worst case scenario is Hernandez is gone for the season, and we know about it well in advance. Okay, so you have to cut someone in week one to make room for your waiver picks, and this just makes that decision that much easier. The opportunity cost is the last pick in your draft and a roster spot for one week (if that- this assumes your league doesn't allow transactions between your draft and the season kickoff, because in that case the opportunity cost is virtually indistinguishable from zero). Meanwhile, the worst case scenario for a guy like Delanie Walker is that it's not IMMEDIATELY clear that he's worthless, and you hold him for weeks, dramatically increasing the opportunity cost. So yeah, I'd prefer a guy like Hernandez to a guy like Walker, because while neither of them is going to be a top 16 TE, at least we'll be sure of it a lot sooner with Hernandez and we can move on to other prospects. If I was going to roster 3 TEs, Hernandez is a decent flier to take. In all likelihood, I'd just stick with 2 TEs and load up on lottery tickets at RB and WR, instead.

jmo87usc said:

Bruce Hammond said:

jmo87usc said:

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Click to expand...

You don't understand what you had in Fleener it's pretty obvious to me. Let's talk in 2-3 years.

Click to expand...

I do understand. But I also understand that Hernandez is 100x better if he turned out to be innocent. If I knew things were going to turn this way 8 days ago, I wouldn't have made the deal. It's called taking a risk. I like betting on Long Shots, what can I say?

What are we going to talk about in 2-3 years? That I'm an idiot and Fleener is awesome? That Hernandez got acquitted and is fantasy relevent again playing for the Raiders? That Fleener was a bust? The jury is literally still out on all of this stuff. You guys act like I gave up Jimmy Graham for him.

Click to expand...

We're acting like you gave up a young, up and coming, move-TE who was just reunited with his college coach. A coach who knows how to use him. All that for a guy who's own NFL (!!!!) team didn't want to wait and see how this plays out. Even before the latest news it was a bad deal.

jmo87usc said:

Dr. Octopus said:

jmo87usc said:

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Click to expand...

When you drafted Coby Fleener last season did you consider him worthless and a wasted pick - because you seem to be acting that way now.

Not commenting on the trade itself - but your over the top defense of it makes it look like you were foolish to draft COBY FLEENER in the first place.

Click to expand...

I didn't draft Fleener, but got him as an add on in another deal. That's the second time you've incorrectly assumed something about me today.

Click to expand...

Maybe you weren't that high on him so you didn't mind trading him but he's now in his 2nd year when TE's tend to break out and has his college QB and OC. Some of us are still quite high on him.

jmo87usc said:

Bruce Hammond said:

jmo87usc said:

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Click to expand...

You don't understand what you had in Fleener it's pretty obvious to me. Let's talk in 2-3 years.

Click to expand...

I do understand. But I also understand that Hernandez is 100x better if he turned out to be innocent. If I knew things were going to turn this way 8 days ago, I wouldn't have made the deal. It's called taking a risk. I like betting on Long Shots, what can I say?

What are we going to talk about in 2-3 years? That I'm an idiot and Fleener is awesome? That Hernandez got acquitted and is fantasy relevent again playing for the Raiders? That Fleener was a bust? The jury is literally still out on all of this stuff. You guys act like I gave up Jimmy Graham for him.

Click to expand...

Fleener is the long shot in this race, Hernandez isn't even on the track. He's in the barn.

jmo87usc said:

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Click to expand...

Yeah, that's only a 2 head smacker...tops.

Ron_Mexico said:

jmo87usc said:

Bruce Hammond said:

jmo87usc said:

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Click to expand...

You don't understand what you had in Fleener it's pretty obvious to me. Let's talk in 2-3 years.

Click to expand...

I do understand. But I also understand that Hernandez is 100x better if he turned out to be innocent. If I knew things were going to turn this way 8 days ago, I wouldn't have made the deal. It's called taking a risk. I like betting on Long Shots, what can I say?

What are we going to talk about in 2-3 years? That I'm an idiot and Fleener is awesome? That Hernandez got acquitted and is fantasy relevent again playing for the Raiders? That Fleener was a bust? The jury is literally still out on all of this stuff. You guys act like I gave up Jimmy Graham for him.

Click to expand...

Fleener is the long shot in this race, Hernandez isn't even on the track. He's in the barn.

Click to expand...

Jeremy said:

jmo87usc said:

werdnoynek said:

Sinn Fein said:

Sinn Fein said:

jmo87usc said:

I just gave fleener for Ahern straight up. And I don't care if he never plays another snap. Good risk to me.

Click to expand...

These are the kind of posts that are best left unsaid.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Seriously???? Of all the trades that went down, you choose mine? One that happened at the very beginning of all this. Obviously I don't make this deal today, but we're talking Coby Fleener here. COBY FLEENER. In a start 1 TE league where I have three better options, maybe 4.

Three hand smacks? For Coby Fleener? Sheesh

Click to expand...

Yeah, that's only a 2 head smacker...tops.

Click to expand...

Exactly. Finally someone gets it

Adam Harstad said:

Sinn Fein said:

Adam Harstad said:

Hernandez got turfed in my rankings. I was not aware before that the police allegedly had video of Hernandez driving the other three immediately prior to the murder- I agree that that changes everything, and I think his chances of playing this year are ludicrously low. I've still got him ranked in the 30s in redraft because, honestly, TE3s are all garbage. I'd rather take a gamble with a 99% chance of being complete a complete zero and a 1% chance of being a top-5 TE than take a gamble on a guy with a 75% chance of being essentially a zero and a 25% chance of being very marginally better than whatever is available on waivers. Worst case scenario with Hernandez is he misses the season, and you have an empty roster spot for whoever your week 1 waiver claim is. Best (but extremely implausible) scenario is quality fantasy production. I'll take that gamble any day over a Delanie Walker, Lance Kendricks, or Chris Gragg. More likely, I only roster 2 TEs and pass on all of them.

Hernandez currently sits in the mid-20s in my Dynasty rankings for a similar reason. He's talented enough that, like Thrifty, I don't think there are really "bad landing spots" for him. Maybe nowhere would be as good as New England, but he can either get his 800 yards efficiently as the 2nd or 3rd target in an elite offense, or he can get them inefficiently as the only decent option on a crummy offense, it makes no difference to me. Things don't look good for him at all, but I'd still rather take a chance on a guy who I believed had the potential to be a worthwhile fantasy TE than on a guy who I think quite simply doesn't have the talent to ever be fantasy relevant.

Click to expand...

Did you just wake up?He is not playing at all this year, and it won't be with Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. 0% chance he performs at a top-16 level TE this year.

Click to expand...

0% is a pretty small number. I'd put it more at 1%. If the NFL lasted for another hundred years, and every single offseason a player got caught up in an execution-style murder investigation like this, I don't think it's crazy to think that one- just one- of those guys would manage to beat the rap and play.As I said, worst case scenario is Hernandez is gone for the season, and we know about it well in advance. Okay, so you have to cut someone in week one to make room for your waiver picks, and this just makes that decision that much easier. The opportunity cost is the last pick in your draft and a roster spot for one week (if that- this assumes your league doesn't allow transactions between your draft and the season kickoff, because in that case the opportunity cost is virtually indistinguishable from zero). Meanwhile, the worst case scenario for a guy like Delanie Walker is that it's not IMMEDIATELY clear that he's worthless, and you hold him for weeks, dramatically increasing the opportunity cost. So yeah, I'd prefer a guy like Hernandez to a guy like Walker, because while neither of them is going to be a top 16 TE, at least we'll be sure of it a lot sooner with Hernandez and we can move on to other prospects. If I was going to roster 3 TEs, Hernandez is a decent flier to take. In all likelihood, I'd just stick with 2 TEs and load up on lottery tickets at RB and WR, instead.

Click to expand...

Somebody is selling crazy.