Amused to Death
Footballguy
What's the best case scenario - he's released on bail and another team picks him up in time to start the season and there's no suspension? Just trying to figure out how there's any wiggle room for him play a down in '13.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Aaron Hernandez current dynasty value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter moderated
- Start date
I was probably a little harsh. But, given the Patriots quickly cutting ties here - before anything plays out in court - strongly suggests to me that he is not beating this rap. Goodelll is certainly not going to let him play while this is in court. I don't see any other team trying to sign him this year - just a PR nightmare, plus they will likely have access to the same info the Patriots had when they decided to cut him.
It may sound strange, but for me the tipping point was when I read about his girlfriend taking his dog away the other day. Hernandez was preparing to be away from home for awhile - and you usually get bail for a simple obstruction of justice charge. He knew then what he was up against, and I think we are all learning now what that will be.
Jeremy
Footballguy
You might as well, unless there's something on the waiver wire that looks good to you. It looks grim, but you probably don't have anything to lose by letting the legal process play out.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Sorry, I was talking about my redraft ranking of him, since Sinn had said there was a 0% chance Hernandez played this year. In terms of redraft, missing the entire season is literally the worst outcome possible.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Best case scenario would be him pleading out to obstruction charges in exchange for his testimony against the others, the NFL hitting him with a 4-6 game suspension, and a team signing him on a cheap "show me" contract.Yeah, it's not likely, but 1% is an extremely small number. Saying I think there's a 1% chance is like saying I think it's as likely as the Buffalo Bills or New York Jets winning the Super Bowl (they're both currently at 100:1 odds). Meaning yeah, it's theoretically possible, but in all likelihood you're just flushing your money down the drain.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
The big tipping point for me is Yudkin's post that there's video of him driving the car. As long as Hernandez has plausible deniability, he has the money and the entourage (read: fall guys) to maintain the possibility of him getting off even if he's guilty. If there's video of him driving the victim to the crime scene, then there's no plausible deniability- at that point, the only question is whether you're a murderer or an accomplice to murder before and after the fact.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How much money would it take for someone to take the fall on a 25 to life sentence on someone else's behalf?
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Yet to be cut in any of my leagues.
FunkyTeaParty
Footballguy
I have him and I am not cutting him. We have our amateur draft on 7/27 and at that point I will be looking for 3-5 roster spots and his may be in danger then. I want to take the next month to see what happens here.
I am certainly open to a lowball offer, however.
I am certainly open to a lowball offer, however.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Adam Harstad
Moderator
WARNING: Long, stream-of-consciousness post ahead as I work through the thoughts behind my Aaron Hernandez rankings! Scroll to the bottom for a TL;DR summary.
I'm still working through my Hernandez valuation and am dropping him further for the second time today.
One big problem with my process is that it doesn't really deal well with real-time adjustments, and I clearly recognize that in this case. Clearly my initial adjustments were too low (and perhaps more importantly, my information on the case was incomplete- the existence of video evidence, if true, is the figurative smoking gun here). Anchoring bias suggests that when we move a player from his original position, we're going to stop short of where he truly deserves to fall as soon as comparisons start getting murky (it's the same principle behind how when you exit a 70 MPH freeway onto a 40 MPH surface street, you try to mentally adjust your speed downward, but usually wind up undershooting and going too fast on the surface street until your conscious mind steps in and corrects). As I further re-evaluate my position, I see anchoring bias's dirty fingerprints all over my reactions. With temporal and emotional distance, I'll be better able to recognize and compensate.
Really, being as objective as I possibly can at the moment, with all of the information I currently have available, it seems like the best place for Aaron Hernandez in redraft rankings is unranked entirely. I believe I'm going to instead leave him as the last TE I have ranked, because I tend to use the last position in my rankings more as a signal to be on the lookout, as this guy could radically outperform expectations, rather than a strict ordinal ranking (i.e. this guy is strictly worse than the guy ahead and strictly better than the guy behind). I've updated my comments again to make these thoughts more explicit, so that hopefully no one misunderstands what that ranking means.
In dynasty, I do not believe that Aaron Hernandez should be unranked as long as uncertainty remains. Uncertainty is a major negative at the top of dynasty rankings, but at the bottom, uncertainty represents opportunity. I've also included comments with my dynasty ranking trying to make my thinking as explicit as possible, so people understand where I'm coming from on this. I still think it is irresponsible to suggest that Aaron Hernandez has a 0% chance of anything at this point. In order for me to say that Aaron Hernandez has 0 value, I would have to rate the likelihood of each of the following statements at 100%: 1) video or some other evidence tangibly linking Hernandez to the crime exists. 2) Hernandez is a central figure in the crime, and the prosecution will be unwilling to offer him a bargain for his testimony. 3) EITHER Hernandez will receive a sentence of at least 10 years for his involvement, OR the NFL would never take a chance on someone with such a nefarious criminal history.
I know the NFL will take a chance on players with major legal troubles. Michael Vick was once the most reviled man in America, and many argued he should receive a lifetime ban, but I think the passage of years tend to cool off even the hottest of passions, and America loves a redemption narrative. The first two statements are both looking likely, but I would rate neither of them as 100% certain given the information available today, and if neither of those two are 100% certain, then the chances of Hernandez receiving a 10 year sentence are likewise not 100% certain. So, we're left with some percentage chance that Hernandez plays again in the NFL (a small but, importantly, nonzero percentage). Hernandez's worth today could therefore be described as his value if he plays again, times his chances of playing again, minus the opportunity cost of rostering him. In leagues with deep rosters, or leagues with generous IR/Taxi Squad rules, that opportunity cost is trivial enough that I would think Hernandez would be worth rostering. In more typical leagues, with today's information, I would think Hernandez is droppable.
The one key element here is time. Given time, all of these estimates are going to change. They could change for the worse (likely), or they could change for the better (unlikely). Given that the opportunity cost of rostering a player in the offseason is basically zero, it would make little sense to cut Hernandez now. For Hernandez owners, time is now their ally, as it will either reinforce the case for cutting him, or it will bring additional reasons to hold off. In terms of trade value, though, I think this is clearly "take what you can get" territory. Well, maybe not take anything- I wouldn't move him for guys who are essentially "Waiver-equivalent" (think: Marvin Jones, Justin Forsett, Dujuan Harris, Delanie Walker, Zach Desert, Rookie 3rds). But I don't think the value of the right to hold him while waiting for more information is compelling enough to turn down any offer that represents better-than-waiver-quality value. And I certainly couldn't blame anyone who considered the sunk cost already spent on Hernandez and decided to turn down even that; although strictly speaking I wouldn't consider that rational, I recognize that fantasy football is a hobby pursued more for enjoyment than objectively rational maximization of values.
I think this represents my final thoughts on Hernandez, at least until new information comes to light. I apologize again for being too slow to properly react to and assimilate new information, but this whole "real-time rankings updates" task is still pretty new to me. This situation gives me a good chance for self-evaluation, as I can evaluate my processes and try to determine if they are maladaptive and need to be changed (possibly by increasing the initial ranking penalty for uncertainty and reserving the right to adjust back upwards later), or whether this situation is far enough outside the norm that it's not reflective of the underlying processes, and I should continue my habit of keeping initial downgrades small and adjusting from there. I'm initially leaning towards the latter explanation (there aren't exactly a lot of good comparables for this situation). Clearly, underreacting in this instance led to a bad outcome, but that doesn't necessarily represent a sweeping indictment of the general tendency to underreact.
TL;DR- By taking a wait-and-see approach, I blew the initial reaction to the Hernandez news. I apologize to anyone who heeded my earlier impressions, and will work to do better next time.
I'm still working through my Hernandez valuation and am dropping him further for the second time today.
One big problem with my process is that it doesn't really deal well with real-time adjustments, and I clearly recognize that in this case. Clearly my initial adjustments were too low (and perhaps more importantly, my information on the case was incomplete- the existence of video evidence, if true, is the figurative smoking gun here). Anchoring bias suggests that when we move a player from his original position, we're going to stop short of where he truly deserves to fall as soon as comparisons start getting murky (it's the same principle behind how when you exit a 70 MPH freeway onto a 40 MPH surface street, you try to mentally adjust your speed downward, but usually wind up undershooting and going too fast on the surface street until your conscious mind steps in and corrects). As I further re-evaluate my position, I see anchoring bias's dirty fingerprints all over my reactions. With temporal and emotional distance, I'll be better able to recognize and compensate.
Really, being as objective as I possibly can at the moment, with all of the information I currently have available, it seems like the best place for Aaron Hernandez in redraft rankings is unranked entirely. I believe I'm going to instead leave him as the last TE I have ranked, because I tend to use the last position in my rankings more as a signal to be on the lookout, as this guy could radically outperform expectations, rather than a strict ordinal ranking (i.e. this guy is strictly worse than the guy ahead and strictly better than the guy behind). I've updated my comments again to make these thoughts more explicit, so that hopefully no one misunderstands what that ranking means.
In dynasty, I do not believe that Aaron Hernandez should be unranked as long as uncertainty remains. Uncertainty is a major negative at the top of dynasty rankings, but at the bottom, uncertainty represents opportunity. I've also included comments with my dynasty ranking trying to make my thinking as explicit as possible, so people understand where I'm coming from on this. I still think it is irresponsible to suggest that Aaron Hernandez has a 0% chance of anything at this point. In order for me to say that Aaron Hernandez has 0 value, I would have to rate the likelihood of each of the following statements at 100%: 1) video or some other evidence tangibly linking Hernandez to the crime exists. 2) Hernandez is a central figure in the crime, and the prosecution will be unwilling to offer him a bargain for his testimony. 3) EITHER Hernandez will receive a sentence of at least 10 years for his involvement, OR the NFL would never take a chance on someone with such a nefarious criminal history.
I know the NFL will take a chance on players with major legal troubles. Michael Vick was once the most reviled man in America, and many argued he should receive a lifetime ban, but I think the passage of years tend to cool off even the hottest of passions, and America loves a redemption narrative. The first two statements are both looking likely, but I would rate neither of them as 100% certain given the information available today, and if neither of those two are 100% certain, then the chances of Hernandez receiving a 10 year sentence are likewise not 100% certain. So, we're left with some percentage chance that Hernandez plays again in the NFL (a small but, importantly, nonzero percentage). Hernandez's worth today could therefore be described as his value if he plays again, times his chances of playing again, minus the opportunity cost of rostering him. In leagues with deep rosters, or leagues with generous IR/Taxi Squad rules, that opportunity cost is trivial enough that I would think Hernandez would be worth rostering. In more typical leagues, with today's information, I would think Hernandez is droppable.
The one key element here is time. Given time, all of these estimates are going to change. They could change for the worse (likely), or they could change for the better (unlikely). Given that the opportunity cost of rostering a player in the offseason is basically zero, it would make little sense to cut Hernandez now. For Hernandez owners, time is now their ally, as it will either reinforce the case for cutting him, or it will bring additional reasons to hold off. In terms of trade value, though, I think this is clearly "take what you can get" territory. Well, maybe not take anything- I wouldn't move him for guys who are essentially "Waiver-equivalent" (think: Marvin Jones, Justin Forsett, Dujuan Harris, Delanie Walker, Zach Desert, Rookie 3rds). But I don't think the value of the right to hold him while waiting for more information is compelling enough to turn down any offer that represents better-than-waiver-quality value. And I certainly couldn't blame anyone who considered the sunk cost already spent on Hernandez and decided to turn down even that; although strictly speaking I wouldn't consider that rational, I recognize that fantasy football is a hobby pursued more for enjoyment than objectively rational maximization of values.
I think this represents my final thoughts on Hernandez, at least until new information comes to light. I apologize again for being too slow to properly react to and assimilate new information, but this whole "real-time rankings updates" task is still pretty new to me. This situation gives me a good chance for self-evaluation, as I can evaluate my processes and try to determine if they are maladaptive and need to be changed (possibly by increasing the initial ranking penalty for uncertainty and reserving the right to adjust back upwards later), or whether this situation is far enough outside the norm that it's not reflective of the underlying processes, and I should continue my habit of keeping initial downgrades small and adjusting from there. I'm initially leaning towards the latter explanation (there aren't exactly a lot of good comparables for this situation). Clearly, underreacting in this instance led to a bad outcome, but that doesn't necessarily represent a sweeping indictment of the general tendency to underreact.
TL;DR- By taking a wait-and-see approach, I blew the initial reaction to the Hernandez news. I apologize to anyone who heeded my earlier impressions, and will work to do better next time.
cstu
Footballguy
lod01
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I believe the correct notation is " * ".
Last edited by a moderator:
Donsmith753
Footballguy
:(
FunkyTeaParty
Footballguy
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Shawnky
Footballguy
Ghostguy knows things
Keith Lewis
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Value = zero
Congrats to everyone who moved him for a potentially useful piece like Rob Housler, Coby Fleener or a 2nd rounder.
Congrats to everyone who moved him for a potentially useful piece like Rob Housler, Coby Fleener or a 2nd rounder.
Last edited by a moderator:
No worries Adam. Things could have gone differently. Situation is still fluid, but more like molasses than water. Thinking back to the Michael Vick scenario, no one thought he would have gotten another chance and he did. You can't be blamed for holding out on judgement until more evidence came to light. Some guys guessed correctly, some guys guessed wrong. No one KNEW anything.Adam Harstad said:
And of course he hasn't been convicted yet, but it looks bad.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Michael Vick has absolutely ZERO to do with Aaron Hernandez. No valid comparisons can be made between the two.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
They both played in the NFL?
Both have spent time in a prison?
Both are male?
They both claim to be human beings?
Donsmith753
Footballguy
Just sent an offer for him.
Note: it is a cap league
Note: it is a cap league
Casting Couch
Footballguy
My mistake.... 4 and only 4 valid comparisons can be made between the two.
I stand corrected.
jurb26
Footballguy
Mistake. Just wait until he's dropped and pick him up if you want him still.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
I'm in a better position to absorb the cap hit so I'm asking for a draft pick along with Hernandez, don't plan to keep him.
Doubt it'll get accepted.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Depends on the league.
If you have very large rosters and can hold him for 2-3 years as a dead roster spot instead of picking up waiver guys like Dwyer and backup QBs, then he has SOME value till the trial and all that is over and you know what will happen.
FFPC, where unfortunately I have him with 20 man rosters with a cutdown to 16 each year (2 being K and Defense), he has essentially no value, and as someone mentioned a while back, zero value since he takes away what you can get off waivers, when in those leagues there is always value available on vaivers.
If you have very large rosters and can hold him for 2-3 years as a dead roster spot instead of picking up waiver guys like Dwyer and backup QBs, then he has SOME value till the trial and all that is over and you know what will happen.
FFPC, where unfortunately I have him with 20 man rosters with a cutdown to 16 each year (2 being K and Defense), he has essentially no value, and as someone mentioned a while back, zero value since he takes away what you can get off waivers, when in those leagues there is always value available on vaivers.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
In salary cap leagues where there are cap hits, I can see this type of deal taking place where a team takesn on salary with picks.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
He's on a ~6mil contract and if cut will result in a ~3mil cap hit.
His owner has 1 mil in cap room and I've got 7.5.
I send him a player I won't start and he sends Hernandez and a draft pick.
I cut Hernandez and pick up someone else.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Sure. Classic bayesian inference: the probability estimates of a hypothesis are constantly updated in the face of new information. If Hernandez gets the book thrown at him, my opinion on his chances of ever playing again go down. If he doesn't, they go up.Sinn Fein said:
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I disagree. Obviously the nature of their crime is very different, but both were star players facing serious allegations that carried hefty penalties. Both were facing the possibility of a lengthy, perhaps even lifetime, suspension from the league (and yes, there was a lot of talk of giving Vick a lifetime ban).
Vick's crimes didn't carry as big of a maximum sentence as Hernandez's potential crimes (obviously this depends on what he eventually gets charged with), but Vick was facing indictment by the feds, who essentially have a 100% conviction rate, so Hernandez's chances of drawing a "not guilty" verdict and getting off with nothing are substantially higher than Vick's were.
Carruth's crime was more similar than Vick's, but Vick is a much closer comp in terms of talent, which is important because teams will risk more if there's enough talent involved.
Obviously situations like these are so unique and unprecedented that there really aren't any great comps, but I think there is insight to be gained from the Michael Vick comparison.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
I believe the book has already been tossed, at a high rate of speed.... and there will no doubt be many more chapters when this thing goes to trial.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Respectfully disagree, running a dog fighting ring and whacking dogs, is not in the same galaxy as shooting a man 5 times at point blank range and ending his life.
Last edited by a moderator:
Vick is nothing like this and please spare the crap about people being emotional about their dogs. We are talking the murder of a human being here. Vick got charged with running an interstate dog ring and in the public eye his crime was cruelty to animals. I'm sorry folks but that is not even in the same discussion as first degree murder and trying to conclude that they are is reaching for straws.
Similar threads
