Hahaha...
what? My only objection to Kelce is targets. I don't think he'll get enough to justify his ADP (TE3). Yet, in the article that is going to "eliminate my objections", check out the assumptions:
the entire argument for Kelce as a dynasty commodity rests on a few more targets per game.
If the following happens, he’ll climb into that 15 points/game tier:
- He sees two to three more targets per game
- He maintains an reFPOEPT in the 0.5 range
He got 87 targets last year. Two more per game would put him at 119. Three more per game would be 135. There were only six TEs with 100 or more targets. The MOST was 131 targets. So yeah, if we assume he gets the most, or close to the most, targets in the NFL for a TE while remaining very efficient, then yeah, he'll be good. Way to go out on a limb, guys!
In the last 4 years of Andy Reid coached teams, here are the team
totals for TE targets (not the targets to the top TE):
96
79
83
75
Dwayne Bowe only got 95 targets last year. Do people think Maclin is going to get less than Bowe or that Smith is going to suddenly stop dumping off to the RBs? Or maybe we can steal targets from the 3rd leading WR/TE target... oh wait, that guy only got 28 targets.
I like Kelce's talent as much as the next guy, but I can't see him realistically getting much more than 100 targets without some unforeseeable change to the KC offense. Banking on the unforeseeable occasionally works (Denver receivers in 2013), but more often than not, it doesn't.
Second the "good posting"
I was super pumped after reading that article, and then FF Ninja went and threw a completely-reasonable bucket of water on it.
As a counter, there are a few immediate thoughts: Charles has 163 targets over the last two years. Partly by design of the offense, partly by Smith being so gun shy, and partly because Charles has been awesome. But he's going on 29, and probably isn't going to have another 100 target season, either.
I see Maclin for Bowe as basically treading water, at least in terms of targets and yardage. Although that may seem like disrespect for Maclin, I doubt he blows Bowe's stats out of the water (well, maybe he'll catch at least 1 TD, so there's that). But I don't think many are expecting him to be 2014 Eagles-Maclin either. Point being, I don't think Maclin is going to soak up a huge number of targets.
If Maclin treads water with Bowe in terms of targets, Charles has slightly fewer targets to keep the wear down, and Kelce gets a handful more targets due to less sharing with the TE2, he could easily get the 13 more needed to hit 100. This ain't no Brent Celek. Kelce also lines up outside a fair bit - I don't have the stats, but recall him split out wide on many occasions, often simply just to catch the TE-screen (and do his jukes and magic after the catch).
Easily TE3, especially in perceived value. Yeah, it would suck to pay that price in re-draft, but he'll be a mid-priced option in DFS (probably right around the Greg Olsen price point). That's not as hard to stomach.