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Jordy Nelson

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What happened? Obviously we're happy with the TDs but why the lack of targets this weekend? Looked like the SOD after week one, now... Sell high?

Appreciate responses from those who saw the game.

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What happened? Obviously we're happy with the TDs but why the lack of targets this weekend? Looked like the SOD after week one, now... Sell high?

Appreciate responses from those who saw the game.

Nothing wrong, they just decided to feature James Jones.

Edited by cstu
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What happened? Obviously we're happy with the TDs but why the lack of targets this weekend? Looked like the SOD after week one, now... Sell high?

Appreciate responses from those who saw the game.

Are you really going to trade Jordy away when is playing at a WR2/3 position on most teams and producing WR1 #s? Why would u do that? Things change from week to week. Be happy that he is targeted in the red zone (on an O that is in the red zone a lot) and in some weeks he gets insane targets to go with it. What is not to like?

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I thought we tried to stay ahead of the curve around here. 4 out of 43 targets.

Not complaining. He's got WR1 perception right now so it might be a good time to strike

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I thought we tried to stay ahead of the curve around here. 4 out of 43 targets.

Not complaining. He's got WR1 perception right now so it might be a good time to strike

In his career year in 2011, Jordy averaged 6 targets a game. His TD to target/reception ratio was absurd. When it pertains to Jordy, and especially Rodgers, I do not consider last weeks numbers an outlier. This is how they operate.

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I thought we tried to stay ahead of the curve around here. 4 out of 43 targets.

Not complaining. He's got WR1 perception right now so it might be a good time to strike

In his career year in 2011, Jordy averaged 6 targets a game. His TD to target/reception ratio was absurd. When it pertains to Jordy, and especially Rodgers, I do not consider last weeks numbers an outlier. This is how they operate.

If anything, Week 1 (7-130, TD) was the outlier. He's a big play kind of guy, IMO.

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I thought we tried to stay ahead of the curve around here. 4 out of 43 targets.

Not complaining. He's got WR1 perception right now so it might be a good time to strike

In his career year in 2011, Jordy averaged 6 targets a game. His TD to target/reception ratio was absurd. When it pertains to Jordy, and especially Rodgers, I do not consider last weeks numbers an outlier. This is how they operate.

If anything, Week 1 (7-130, TD) was the outlier. He's a big play kind of guy, IMO.

In two games he has 10 catches for 196 yards and 3 TD's on 14 targets.

That's nothing out of the ordinary and what he was doing last year before getting hurt.

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I thought we tried to stay ahead of the curve around here. 4 out of 43 targets.

Not complaining. He's got WR1 perception right now so it might be a good time to strike

In his career year in 2011, Jordy averaged 6 targets a game. His TD to target/reception ratio was absurd. When it pertains to Jordy, and especially Rodgers, I do not consider last weeks numbers an outlier. This is how they operate.

Thanks SSND. Definitely not fishing. The Jones target numbers have me a bit spooked. Anyone have snap counts?

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You have to remember that great QBs are masters at exploiting mismatches. Against SF, GB saw something that said....."get the ball to Nelson". So Rodgers did. A lot. Against WAS, it was obvious the matchup GB liked was James Jones. That's football.

Jordy isn't going to get 8-12 targets every week like a typical WR1. But he's great in the redzone and he could catch 12-14 TDs this year. He's on pace for 80 receptions. There are very few WRs who catch a minimum of 4 passes EVERY game.

I wouldn't worry about Jordy. Most got him at a nice discount. Enjoy the ride.

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You have to remember that great QBs are masters at exploiting mismatches. Against SF, GB saw something that said....."get the ball to Nelson". So Rodgers did. A lot. Against WAS, it was obvious the matchup GB liked was James Jones. That's football.

Jordy isn't going to get 8-12 targets every week like a typical WR1. But he's great in the redzone and he could catch 12-14 TDs this year. He's on pace for 80 receptions. There are very few WRs who catch a minimum of 4 passes EVERY game.

I wouldn't worry about Jordy. Most got him at a nice discount. Enjoy the ride.

:goodposting:

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I understand the concern, OP. Obviously nobody is upset with what he has done so far, they are just concerned at the smaller amount of targets/catches. Considering where he was drafted and his auction price, people can have equal or better receiving options. I own VJax, Jordy and DJax in one league. I benched DJax last week and am definitely not doing that again. That means I'm probably going to bench Jordy this week.

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The guys a ####in WR1 with aaron rodgers throwing to him and has a 15TD season under his belt and was on pace for another top 12 finish last year before getting hurt. But feel free to overanalyze him and trade him away. And feel free starting a WR who has Freeman throwing to him. Knock yourself out.

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After being ignored last week the Packers made a point to get Jones a bunch of targets. Cobb is probably the only one who will get consistent targets in the offense due to him being the slot guy. Good thing you get points for actual production and not targets since Jordy is a talented WR with the most accurate QB in the NFL throwing passes his way. Jordy will have plenty of production even without 10-12 targets a game. Low end WR1/ high end WR2 if he stays healthy.

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I understand the concern, OP. Obviously nobody is upset with what he has done so far, they are just concerned at the smaller amount of targets/catches. Considering where he was drafted and his auction price, people can have equal or better receiving options. I own VJax, Jordy and DJax in one league. I benched DJax last week and am definitely not doing that again. That means I'm probably going to bench Jordy this week.

then youre an idiot
Thanks for the intelligent post.

His was only slightly less intelligent then yours.

Does anybody care to write out any thoughtful responses? As far as I can tell, I'm one of the only few that actually posted something of value in here. Just because you disagree with how I rank the players doesn't mean I'm an idiot or my post was unintelligent. Sorry, I thought this forum was for discussion about fantasy football and not little kids pointing fingers and calling people idiots.

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The guys a ####in WR1 with aaron rodgers throwing to him and has a 15TD season under his belt and was on pace for another top 12 finish last year before getting hurt. But feel free to overanalyze him and trade him away. And feel free starting a WR who has Freeman throwing to him. Knock yourself out.

That WR that has Freeman throwing to him finished 12th overall last year in my league. He had the 5th most receiving yards in the league. He's a clear scrub.

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The guys a ####in WR1 with aaron rodgers throwing to him and has a 15TD season under his belt and was on pace for another top 12 finish last year before getting hurt. But feel free to overanalyze him and trade him away. And feel free starting a WR who has Freeman throwing to him. Knock yourself out.

That WR that has Freeman throwing to him finished 12th overall last year in my league. He had the 5th most receiving yards in the league. He's a clear scrub.

yeah josh freeman sux now

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After being ignored last week the Packers made a point to get Jones a bunch of targets. Cobb is probably the only one who will get consistent targets in the offense due to him being the slot guy. Good thing you get points for actual production and not targets since Jordy is a talented WR with the most accurate QB in the NFL throwing passes his way. Jordy will have plenty of production even without 10-12 targets a game. Low end WR1/ high end WR2 if he stays healthy.

And most of us got him and are starting him at the WR3 or flex position.

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After being ignored last week the Packers made a point to get Jones a bunch of targets. Cobb is probably the only one who will get consistent targets in the offense due to him being the slot guy. Good thing you get points for actual production and not targets since Jordy is a talented WR with the most accurate QB in the NFL throwing passes his way. Jordy will have plenty of production even without 10-12 targets a game. Low end WR1/ high end WR2 if he stays healthy.

He finished #3 WR in fantasy 2 years ago with a much more prolific WR than Cobb (Jennings) in front of him. His upside is high end WR1. His floor if he stays healthy is low end WR1.

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I thought we tried to stay ahead of the curve around here. 4 out of 43 targets.

Not complaining. He's got WR1 perception right now so it might be a good time to strike

In his career year in 2011, Jordy averaged 6 targets a game. His TD to target/reception ratio was absurd. When it pertains to Jordy, and especially Rodgers, I do not consider last weeks numbers an outlier. This is how they operate.

Thanks SSND. Definitely not fishing. The Jones target numbers have me a bit spooked. Anyone have snap counts?

In week 1, Nelson and Jones got 63 snaps each, Finley got 60, and Cobb got 54. Nelson and Jones ran 41 routes, Cobb ran 40.

In week 2, Jones got 71 snaps, Nelson got 70, Finley got 45, and Cobb got 65. Nelson and Jones ran 47 routes, Cobb ran 42.

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It was an embarrassing game for the Redskins secondary - one of many this year, I am afraid. It looked like Rodgers could have thrown the ball to any of several receivers on many of those plays - I swear it looked like EVERYONE was open. Why did he throw so many to Jones? Maybe because there was the week 1 goose egg from JJ and the many questions that spawned. So Rodgers made sure everyone got fed.

Fortunately this is one team that will be able to support three WRs at least at a WR2 pace. Will Nelson average over 100 yards a game? No, probably no one will on this team. But they could easily have three 1000+ / 10 TD receivers. I'm glad I have the cheapest one.

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After being ignored last week the Packers made a point to get Jones a bunch of targets. Cobb is probably the only one who will get consistent targets in the offense due to him being the slot guy. Good thing you get points for actual production and not targets since Jordy is a talented WR with the most accurate QB in the NFL throwing passes his way. Jordy will have plenty of production even without 10-12 targets a game. Low end WR1/ high end WR2 if he stays healthy.

He finished #3 WR in fantasy 2 years ago with a much more prolific WR than Cobb (Jennings) in front of him. His upside is high end WR1. His floor if he stays healthy is low end WR1.

I don't think that will be true for much longer.

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I thought we tried to stay ahead of the curve around here. 4 out of 43 targets.

Not complaining. He's got WR1 perception right now so it might be a good time to strike

In his career year in 2011, Jordy averaged 6 targets a game. His TD to target/reception ratio was absurd. When it pertains to Jordy, and especially Rodgers, I do not consider last weeks numbers an outlier. This is how they operate.

Thanks SSND. Definitely not fishing. The Jones target numbers have me a bit spooked. Anyone have snap counts?

In week 1, Nelson and Jones got 63 snaps each, Finley got 60, and Cobb got 54. Nelson and Jones ran 41 routes, Cobb ran 40.

In week 2, Jones got 71 snaps, Nelson got 70, Finley got 45, and Cobb got 65. Nelson and Jones ran 47 routes, Cobb ran 42.

Thanks! So it looks like Cobb doesn't play in 2WR sets. Not what I was expecting to see, but I guess that's a slight positive for Jordy. Better to compete with JJ than RC, if only for a few snaps.

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I thought we tried to stay ahead of the curve around here. 4 out of 43 targets.

Not complaining. He's got WR1 perception right now so it might be a good time to strike

In his career year in 2011, Jordy averaged 6 targets a game. His TD to target/reception ratio was absurd. When it pertains to Jordy, and especially Rodgers, I do not consider last weeks numbers an outlier. This is how they operate.

Thanks SSND. Definitely not fishing. The Jones target numbers have me a bit spooked. Anyone have snap counts?

In week 1, Nelson and Jones got 63 snaps each, Finley got 60, and Cobb got 54. Nelson and Jones ran 41 routes, Cobb ran 40.

In week 2, Jones got 71 snaps, Nelson got 70, Finley got 45, and Cobb got 65. Nelson and Jones ran 47 routes, Cobb ran 42.

Thanks! So it looks like Cobb doesn't play in 2WR sets. Not what I was expecting to see, but I guess that's a slight positive for Jordy. Better to compete with JJ than RC, if only for a few snaps.

Cobb's never really played in 2WR sets. Doesn't impact his value much, since he typically winds up out in pass routes nearly as much as the other guys.

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After being ignored last week the Packers made a point to get Jones a bunch of targets. Cobb is probably the only one who will get consistent targets in the offense due to him being the slot guy. Good thing you get points for actual production and not targets since Jordy is a talented WR with the most accurate QB in the NFL throwing passes his way. Jordy will have plenty of production even without 10-12 targets a game. Low end WR1/ high end WR2 if he stays healthy.

He finished #3 WR in fantasy 2 years ago with a much more prolific WR than Cobb (Jennings) in front of him. His upside is high end WR1. His floor if he stays healthy is low end WR1.

True he did in 2011 but even if things go perfect for him I don't see him finishing ahead of Calvin, Dez, AJ, Brandon, or Julio maybe Fitzgerald too now that he has a QB. don't get me wrong I love Jordy but I think WR 7 is about the best he'll do. Nothing wrong with that as those are all great receivers.

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i need a rb, i have dez nelson and d jax.... i'm really struggling between d jax and nelson as to which one i should try to move.... i think as long as nelson is on the field he is going to get td's, he did that in 2011, and got 7 last year even though he missed significant time.

i dont think you are going to get his actual value in a trade though right now. I'm hoping worst case he is top 15.

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i need a rb, i have dez nelson and d jax.... i'm really struggling between d jax and nelson as to which one i should try to move.... i think as long as nelson is on the field he is going to get td's, he did that in 2011, and got 7 last year even though he missed significant time.

i dont think you are going to get his actual value in a trade though right now. I'm hoping worst case he is top 15.

You should go to the Assistant Coach for this type of question.

I would put both Jackson and Nelson up and see what you can get for them.....straight up or in some package deal. I would suspect that you won't get proper value for either. Nelson should be valued as a top 15 guy and Jackson should be valued as a top 10 guy (as long as Vick can stay upright).

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The guys a ####in WR1 with aaron rodgers throwing to him and has a 15TD season under his belt and was on pace for another top 12 finish last year before getting hurt. But feel free to overanalyze him and trade him away. And feel free starting a WR who has Freeman throwing to him. Knock yourself out.

VJax has plenty of value with Freeman. It didn't affect him last year and has over 225 receiving yards already this year.

The issue is V Jax could have an untested rookie throwing to him sometime this year. That could kill his value.

So that said, I agree that I wouldn't trade away Nelson becuase you have VJax. I would do the reverse and try to trade VJax before Freeman gets benched.

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After being ignored last week the Packers made a point to get Jones a bunch of targets. Cobb is probably the only one who will get consistent targets in the offense due to him being the slot guy. Good thing you get points for actual production and not targets since Jordy is a talented WR with the most accurate QB in the NFL throwing passes his way. Jordy will have plenty of production even without 10-12 targets a game. Low end WR1/ high end WR2 if he stays healthy.

He finished #3 WR in fantasy 2 years ago with a much more prolific WR than Cobb (Jennings) in front of him. His upside is high end WR1. His floor if he stays healthy is low end WR1.

True he did in 2011 but even if things go perfect for him I don't see him finishing ahead of Calvin, Dez, AJ, Brandon, or Julio maybe Fitzgerald too now that he has a QB. don't get me wrong I love Jordy but I think WR 7 is about the best he'll do. Nothing wrong with that as those are all great receivers.

I dissagree on you. Since the Packers do not has a running game, Jordy Nelson will be able to catch many balls this year. Plus, he be Aaron Rodgers most trusting WR guy when it come to makin big plays. So I think he finished up this year as the #1 WR in FFL.

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a steal at the 7th round

glad we do a early draft and the knee issue was scaring people away

Edited by VA703

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Can someone @ FBG explain to me why Jordy is ranked WR21? He's behind Torrey, Decker, Colston, etc...

Jordy is the 3rd highest scoring WR after three weeks and the most targeted WR for the best QB in the league... criminally underrated. He should be WR12 minimum. His health is obviously not an issue and he will continue to see tons of deep shots down the field, as well as goal-line looks, once Lacy is back and there is a threat of the run game.

Anyone who has watched him play can attest that he is catching everything that comes his way. He has displayed some amazing body control and athleticism so far this year. On several catches he had to torque his body around to get the ball, then somehow managed to keep both feet in bounds only inches from the sideline. He's been more impressive-looking than Cobb so far.

Edited by meyerj31
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Can someone @ FBG explain to me why Jordy is ranked WR21? He's behind Torrey, Decker, Colston, etc...

Jordy is the 3rd highest scoring WR after three weeks and the most targeted WR for the best QB in the league... criminally underrated. He should be WR12 minimum. His health is obviously not an issue and he will continue to see tons of deep shots down the field, as well as goal-line looks, once Lacy is back and there is a threat of the run game.

Anyone who has watched him play can attest that he is catching everything that comes his way. He has displayed some amazing body control and athleticism so far this year. On several catches he had to torque his body around to get the ball, then somehow managed to keep both feet in bounds only inches from the sideline. He's been more impressive-looking than Cobb so far.

Makes no sense. He has looked great so far.

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Not a subscriber, so not sure which list you are looking at. That said, he's on a bye this week.

They have "rest of season" rankings each week, updated. Jordy hasn't moved from his original ranking, which is ridiculous. His original ranking was low, and he should have moved up significantly with his play so far this year.

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Can someone @ FBG explain to me why Jordy is ranked WR21? He's behind Torrey, Decker, Colston, etc...

Jordy is the 3rd highest scoring WR after three weeks and the most targeted WR for the best QB in the league... criminally underrated. He should be WR12 minimum. His health is obviously not an issue and he will continue to see tons of deep shots down the field, as well as goal-line looks, once Lacy is back and there is a threat of the run game.

Anyone who has watched him play can attest that he is catching everything that comes his way. He has displayed some amazing body control and athleticism so far this year. On several catches he had to torque his body around to get the ball, then somehow managed to keep both feet in bounds only inches from the sideline. He's been more impressive-looking than Cobb so far.

No, they really cannot explain it. It has to be a mistake, and that should be the answer.

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Can someone @ FBG explain to me why Jordy is ranked WR21? He's behind Torrey, Decker, Colston, etc...

Jordy is the 3rd highest scoring WR after three weeks and the most targeted WR for the best QB in the league... criminally underrated. He should be WR12 minimum. His health is obviously not an issue and he will continue to see tons of deep shots down the field, as well as goal-line looks, once Lacy is back and there is a threat of the run game.

Anyone who has watched him play can attest that he is catching everything that comes his way. He has displayed some amazing body control and athleticism so far this year. On several catches he had to torque his body around to get the ball, then somehow managed to keep both feet in bounds only inches from the sideline. He's been more impressive-looking than Cobb so far.

No, they really cannot explain it. It has to be a mistake, and that should be the answer.

A nit, but Nelson ranks 21st depending on scoring system. In standard FBGs scoring (= no PPR), Nelson ranks 17th. Still low, but not as low. In TD-heavy scoring, Nelson jumps to 14th. So the projections seem to be that Nelson is going to have a lot of touchdowns, a good amount of yards, and not many receptions- which seems like an accurate profile for Jordy Nelson.

Dodds is the guy who compiles the going forward list, and he's extremely thorough. He actually makes rest-of-season projections for every single player and basically creates a brand new VBD list every single week. There have been errors in the spreadsheet before, but for the most part, if a player is ranked somewhere, it's usually because Dodds meant to rank him there.

If I had to guess Dodds' reasons, I'd imagine it'd probably start with the fact that Nelson is currently in an 8-way tie for 35th in targets with just 23 through three games. Cobb has 33, and James Jones has 22. Nelson has been lighting the league on fire because his per-target stats are absolutely insane (78% catch rate on a whopping 16+ yards per reception, good for 12.7 yards per target). If one projects Nelson's per-game targets to remain constant, but his per-target numbers to regress by 25-33% (to a still-huge but reasonable 9-10 yards per target), then I can see how one could reasonably expect Nelson to come back to earth. I wouldn't personally project that, but I can understand why someone else might. I happen to agree that Nelson is too low, but I thought Nelson was too low before the season, too.

Looking at the different projected point totals and doing a little bit of working backwards, it looks like Dodds has Nelson projected for somewhere in the neighborhood of 57 receptions, 860 yards, and 6-7 TDs going forward, which would put him around 75/1150/10 over the full season. Low, but not indefensibly so. Nelson is a top 5 receiver today, but look at the top 10 receivers through three weeks last year: Green, Calvin, Wallace, Julio, Torrey Smith, Austin, Amendola, Bowe, Wayne, and Stevie Johnson. Of those 10 guys, only four (FOUR!) ranked in the top 20 from weeks 4-17 (Calvin, Green, Julio, Wayne). Of those four, only Calvin and Green ranked in the top 10. It seems crazy to be saying that a guy who is top 5 today will not be top 20 the rest of the way, but it's not crazy at all. In fact, it's incredibly common.

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Can someone @ FBG explain to me why Jordy is ranked WR21? He's behind Torrey, Decker, Colston, etc...

Jordy is the 3rd highest scoring WR after three weeks and the most targeted WR for the best QB in the league... criminally underrated. He should be WR12 minimum. His health is obviously not an issue and he will continue to see tons of deep shots down the field, as well as goal-line looks, once Lacy is back and there is a threat of the run game.

Anyone who has watched him play can attest that he is catching everything that comes his way. He has displayed some amazing body control and athleticism so far this year. On several catches he had to torque his body around to get the ball, then somehow managed to keep both feet in bounds only inches from the sideline. He's been more impressive-looking than Cobb so far.

No, they really cannot explain it. It has to be a mistake, and that should be the answer.

A nit, but Nelson ranks 21st depending on scoring system. In standard FBGs scoring (= no PPR), Nelson ranks 17th. Still low, but not as low. In TD-heavy scoring, Nelson jumps to 14th. So the projections seem to be that Nelson is going to have a lot of touchdowns, a good amount of yards, and not many receptions- which seems like an accurate profile for Jordy Nelson.

Dodds is the guy who compiles the going forward list, and he's extremely thorough. He actually makes rest-of-season projections for every single player and basically creates a brand new VBD list every single week. There have been errors in the spreadsheet before, but for the most part, if a player is ranked somewhere, it's usually because Dodds meant to rank him there.

If I had to guess Dodds' reasons, I'd imagine it'd probably start with the fact that Nelson is currently in an 8-way tie for 35th in targets with just 23 through three games. Cobb has 33, and James Jones has 22. Nelson has been lighting the league on fire because his per-target stats are absolutely insane (78% catch rate on a whopping 16+ yards per reception, good for 12.7 yards per target). If one projects Nelson's per-game targets to remain constant, but his per-target numbers to regress by 25-33% (to a still-huge but reasonable 9-10 yards per target), then I can see how one could reasonably expect Nelson to come back to earth. I wouldn't personally project that, but I can understand why someone else might. I happen to agree that Nelson is too low, but I thought Nelson was too low before the season, too.

Looking at the different projected point totals and doing a little bit of working backwards, it looks like Dodds has Nelson projected for somewhere in the neighborhood of 57 receptions, 860 yards, and 6-7 TDs going forward, which would put him around 75/1150/10 over the full season. Low, but not indefensibly so. Nelson is a top 5 receiver today, but look at the top 10 receivers through three weeks last year: Green, Calvin, Wallace, Julio, Torrey Smith, Austin, Amendola, Bowe, Wayne, and Stevie Johnson. Of those 10 guys, only four (FOUR!) ranked in the top 20 from weeks 4-17 (Calvin, Green, Julio, Wayne). Of those four, only Calvin and Green ranked in the top 10. It seems crazy to be saying that a guy who is top 5 today will not be top 20 the rest of the way, but it's not crazy at all. In fact, it's incredibly common.

:goodposting: :tebow:

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It seems crazy to be saying that a guy who is top 5 today will not be top 20 the rest of the way, but it's not crazy at all. In fact, it's incredibly common.

How common is it for a guy who's been top five virtually every healthy week of the last three years he's played, who's still entering his prime, and still on one of the top passing offenses in the league? Because we're not talking about a guy who's top five through three weeks; we're talking about a guy who's top five, week-in/week-out since the start of 2011, except when he was off the field. Statistically speaking with respect to ranking, devaluing him to the 20 range wouldn't be like doing it to Danny Amendola last year...it would be like doing it to Calvin Johnson this year.

Edited by Man of Zen

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Jordy Nelson - the Rodney Dangerfield of Fantasy Football.

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It seems crazy to be saying that a guy who is top 5 today will not be top 20 the rest of the way, but it's not crazy at all. In fact, it's incredibly common.

How common is it for a guy who's been top five virtually every healthy week of the last three years he's played, who's still entering his prime, and still on one of the top passing offenses in the league? Because we're not talking about a guy who's top five through three weeks; we're talking about a guy who's top five, week-in/week-out since the start of 2011, except when he was off the field. Statistically speaking with respect to ranking, devaluing him to the 20 range wouldn't be like doing it to Danny Amendola last year...it would be like doing it to Calvin Johnson this year.

I see what you're saying, but to me, the reason he doesn't have the same value as the other top guys is the fact that his qb is that great and the other great receiving options. I own Jordy in a couple leagues and I'm really happy I do, especially considering how late he was drafted, but there's a big difference between him and Calvin, Andre, Fitz, Julio (so far), etc. Those are the kind of guys that are getting 8+ receptions every game. Jordy has performed great for the amount of targets/catches he has, but what if he's shut down by a good corner 1 week? It doesn't hurt the GB offense, they'll just pass to somebody else. Those other players that I mentioned are THE guy. If you shut them down, that team loses. I agree, rating him below 20 is pretty low, but he's not top 5 and probably not even top 10. I'd put him between 10-15.

Edit: Just realized that he had 7, 3, 8 receptions. For some reason I thought he never had more than 5 or so each week. It kind of ruins my point, but I don't think it ruins my point that the QB has different options. Good qb's know how to find the guy with a mismatch and play that mismatch. I prefer average qb's that only have one option and feed it to him all the time (BMarsh is a perfect example).

Edited by steveski

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Can someone @ FBG explain to me why Jordy is ranked WR21? He's behind Torrey, Decker, Colston, etc...

Jordy is the 3rd highest scoring WR after three weeks and the most targeted WR for the best QB in the league... criminally underrated. He should be WR12 minimum. His health is obviously not an issue and he will continue to see tons of deep shots down the field, as well as goal-line looks, once Lacy is back and there is a threat of the run game.

Anyone who has watched him play can attest that he is catching everything that comes his way. He has displayed some amazing body control and athleticism so far this year. On several catches he had to torque his body around to get the ball, then somehow managed to keep both feet in bounds only inches from the sideline. He's been more impressive-looking than Cobb so far.

No, they really cannot explain it. It has to be a mistake, and that should be the answer.

A nit, but Nelson ranks 21st depending on scoring system. In standard FBGs scoring (= no PPR), Nelson ranks 17th. Still low, but not as low. In TD-heavy scoring, Nelson jumps to 14th. So the projections seem to be that Nelson is going to have a lot of touchdowns, a good amount of yards, and not many receptions- which seems like an accurate profile for Jordy Nelson.

Dodds is the guy who compiles the going forward list, and he's extremely thorough. He actually makes rest-of-season projections for every single player and basically creates a brand new VBD list every single week. There have been errors in the spreadsheet before, but for the most part, if a player is ranked somewhere, it's usually because Dodds meant to rank him there.

If I had to guess Dodds' reasons, I'd imagine it'd probably start with the fact that Nelson is currently in an 8-way tie for 35th in targets with just 23 through three games. Cobb has 33, and James Jones has 22. Nelson has been lighting the league on fire because his per-target stats are absolutely insane (78% catch rate on a whopping 16+ yards per reception, good for 12.7 yards per target). If one projects Nelson's per-game targets to remain constant, but his per-target numbers to regress by 25-33% (to a still-huge but reasonable 9-10 yards per target), then I can see how one could reasonably expect Nelson to come back to earth. I wouldn't personally project that, but I can understand why someone else might. I happen to agree that Nelson is too low, but I thought Nelson was too low before the season, too.

Looking at the different projected point totals and doing a little bit of working backwards, it looks like Dodds has Nelson projected for somewhere in the neighborhood of 57 receptions, 860 yards, and 6-7 TDs going forward, which would put him around 75/1150/10 over the full season. Low, but not indefensibly so. Nelson is a top 5 receiver today, but look at the top 10 receivers through three weeks last year: Green, Calvin, Wallace, Julio, Torrey Smith, Austin, Amendola, Bowe, Wayne, and Stevie Johnson. Of those 10 guys, only four (FOUR!) ranked in the top 20 from weeks 4-17 (Calvin, Green, Julio, Wayne). Of those four, only Calvin and Green ranked in the top 10. It seems crazy to be saying that a guy who is top 5 today will not be top 20 the rest of the way, but it's not crazy at all. In fact, it's incredibly common.

:goodposting: :tebow:

First- Nelson has always been notorious for low targets and high point production.

Second- ok its true that guys fall out of the top 10 after 3 weeks, but they dont fall BECAUSE they were in the top 10. Ie Jordy isnt 'due' for a bad streak of games. You look at the remainder of the season from scratch, thinking guys will fall off only because theyve been successful is madness. Even if you subscribe to it, you cant single out Jordy Nelson by that logic... SOMEBODY has to fill out your rankings. You just gonna toss out the current top 10 and pencil in 11-20 as the new top 10? Because that's the logical conclusion of that theory.

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It seems crazy to be saying that a guy who is top 5 today will not be top 20 the rest of the way, but it's not crazy at all. In fact, it's incredibly common.

How common is it for a guy who's been top five virtually every healthy week of the last three years he's played, who's still entering his prime, and still on one of the top passing offenses in the league? Because we're not talking about a guy who's top five through three weeks; we're talking about a guy who's top five, week-in/week-out since the start of 2011, except when he was off the field. Statistically speaking with respect to ranking, devaluing him to the 20 range wouldn't be like doing it to Danny Amendola last year...it would be like doing it to Calvin Johnson this year.

Still pretty common. Of last year's top 10 receivers through 3 weeks, there were five that had a track record equal to or greater than Jordy Nelson's (at least one top-5 season, plus at least one more top-18 seasons or a season where they ranked top-12 in PPG). Those five were Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace, Miles Austin, Dwayne Bowe, and Reggie Wayne. Of those five, only Calvin and Wayne ranked in the top 20 going forward (Calvin at #3, Wayne at #18). Mike Wallace ranked 5th in 2010, 9th in 2011, 5th through three games in 2012, and 38th the rest of the way. Dwayne Bowe ranked 2nd in 2010, 20th in 2011, 8th through 3 games in 2012, and 36th the rest of the way. Miles Austin was 3rd in 2009, 12th in 2010, 12th in points per game in 2011, 6th through 3 weeks in 2012... and 36th the rest of the way. Like I said, it's quite common.

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Can someone @ FBG explain to me why Jordy is ranked WR21? He's behind Torrey, Decker, Colston, etc...

Jordy is the 3rd highest scoring WR after three weeks and the most targeted WR for the best QB in the league... criminally underrated. He should be WR12 minimum. His health is obviously not an issue and he will continue to see tons of deep shots down the field, as well as goal-line looks, once Lacy is back and there is a threat of the run game.

Anyone who has watched him play can attest that he is catching everything that comes his way. He has displayed some amazing body control and athleticism so far this year. On several catches he had to torque his body around to get the ball, then somehow managed to keep both feet in bounds only inches from the sideline. He's been more impressive-looking than Cobb so far.

No, they really cannot explain it. It has to be a mistake, and that should be the answer.

A nit, but Nelson ranks 21st depending on scoring system. In standard FBGs scoring (= no PPR), Nelson ranks 17th. Still low, but not as low. In TD-heavy scoring, Nelson jumps to 14th. So the projections seem to be that Nelson is going to have a lot of touchdowns, a good amount of yards, and not many receptions- which seems like an accurate profile for Jordy Nelson.

Dodds is the guy who compiles the going forward list, and he's extremely thorough. He actually makes rest-of-season projections for every single player and basically creates a brand new VBD list every single week. There have been errors in the spreadsheet before, but for the most part, if a player is ranked somewhere, it's usually because Dodds meant to rank him there.

If I had to guess Dodds' reasons, I'd imagine it'd probably start with the fact that Nelson is currently in an 8-way tie for 35th in targets with just 23 through three games. Cobb has 33, and James Jones has 22. Nelson has been lighting the league on fire because his per-target stats are absolutely insane (78% catch rate on a whopping 16+ yards per reception, good for 12.7 yards per target). If one projects Nelson's per-game targets to remain constant, but his per-target numbers to regress by 25-33% (to a still-huge but reasonable 9-10 yards per target), then I can see how one could reasonably expect Nelson to come back to earth. I wouldn't personally project that, but I can understand why someone else might. I happen to agree that Nelson is too low, but I thought Nelson was too low before the season, too.

Looking at the different projected point totals and doing a little bit of working backwards, it looks like Dodds has Nelson projected for somewhere in the neighborhood of 57 receptions, 860 yards, and 6-7 TDs going forward, which would put him around 75/1150/10 over the full season. Low, but not indefensibly so. Nelson is a top 5 receiver today, but look at the top 10 receivers through three weeks last year: Green, Calvin, Wallace, Julio, Torrey Smith, Austin, Amendola, Bowe, Wayne, and Stevie Johnson. Of those 10 guys, only four (FOUR!) ranked in the top 20 from weeks 4-17 (Calvin, Green, Julio, Wayne). Of those four, only Calvin and Green ranked in the top 10. It seems crazy to be saying that a guy who is top 5 today will not be top 20 the rest of the way, but it's not crazy at all. In fact, it's incredibly common.

:goodposting: :tebow:

First- Nelson has always been notorious for low targets and high point production.

Second- ok its true that guys fall out of the top 10 after 3 weeks, but they dont fall BECAUSE they were in the top 10. Ie Jordy isnt 'due' for a bad streak of games. You look at the remainder of the season from scratch, thinking guys will fall off only because theyve been successful is madness. Even if you subscribe to it, you cant single out Jordy Nelson by that logic... SOMEBODY has to fill out your rankings. You just gonna toss out the current top 10 and pencil in 11-20 as the new top 10? Because that's the logical conclusion of that theory.

I never said that you should rank Nelson outside of the top 20 *BECAUSE* he currently ranks inside the top 5. That would be crazy. I'm just saying, if you thought Nelson was not a top-20 receiver before, you don't have to automatically change your mind just because he had a great 3 weeks to start the season. It's perfectly reasonable to remain down on him, especially given the dangerously low target numbers. I understand that Nelson has always given big production on small target totals, but in the long run, I do think his per-target production is not sustainable. I'm largely playing Devil's Advocate, because I thought Nelson was a borderline top-12 receiver before the season and still think he's a borderline top-12 receiver today, I'm just saying, Dodds' position is not indefensible or unreasonable, and it's not really out of line historically.

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Can someone @ FBG explain to me why Jordy is ranked WR21? He's behind Torrey, Decker, Colston, etc...

Jordy is the 3rd highest scoring WR after three weeks and the most targeted WR for the best QB in the league... criminally underrated. He should be WR12 minimum. His health is obviously not an issue and he will continue to see tons of deep shots down the field, as well as goal-line looks, once Lacy is back and there is a threat of the run game.

Anyone who has watched him play can attest that he is catching everything that comes his way. He has displayed some amazing body control and athleticism so far this year. On several catches he had to torque his body around to get the ball, then somehow managed to keep both feet in bounds only inches from the sideline. He's been more impressive-looking than Cobb so far.

No, they really cannot explain it. It has to be a mistake, and that should be the answer.

A nit, but Nelson ranks 21st depending on scoring system. In standard FBGs scoring (= no PPR), Nelson ranks 17th. Still low, but not as low. In TD-heavy scoring, Nelson jumps to 14th. So the projections seem to be that Nelson is going to have a lot of touchdowns, a good amount of yards, and not many receptions- which seems like an accurate profile for Jordy Nelson.

Dodds is the guy who compiles the going forward list, and he's extremely thorough. He actually makes rest-of-season projections for every single player and basically creates a brand new VBD list every single week. There have been errors in the spreadsheet before, but for the most part, if a player is ranked somewhere, it's usually because Dodds meant to rank him there.

If I had to guess Dodds' reasons, I'd imagine it'd probably start with the fact that Nelson is currently in an 8-way tie for 35th in targets with just 23 through three games. Cobb has 33, and James Jones has 22. Nelson has been lighting the league on fire because his per-target stats are absolutely insane (78% catch rate on a whopping 16+ yards per reception, good for 12.7 yards per target). If one projects Nelson's per-game targets to remain constant, but his per-target numbers to regress by 25-33% (to a still-huge but reasonable 9-10 yards per target), then I can see how one could reasonably expect Nelson to come back to earth. I wouldn't personally project that, but I can understand why someone else might. I happen to agree that Nelson is too low, but I thought Nelson was too low before the season, too.

Looking at the different projected point totals and doing a little bit of working backwards, it looks like Dodds has Nelson projected for somewhere in the neighborhood of 57 receptions, 860 yards, and 6-7 TDs going forward, which would put him around 75/1150/10 over the full season. Low, but not indefensibly so. Nelson is a top 5 receiver today, but look at the top 10 receivers through three weeks last year: Green, Calvin, Wallace, Julio, Torrey Smith, Austin, Amendola, Bowe, Wayne, and Stevie Johnson. Of those 10 guys, only four (FOUR!) ranked in the top 20 from weeks 4-17 (Calvin, Green, Julio, Wayne). Of those four, only Calvin and Green ranked in the top 10. It seems crazy to be saying that a guy who is top 5 today will not be top 20 the rest of the way, but it's not crazy at all. In fact, it's incredibly common.

:goodposting: :tebow:
First- Nelson has always been notorious for low targets and high point production.

Second- ok its true that guys fall out of the top 10 after 3 weeks, but they dont fall BECAUSE they were in the top 10. Ie Jordy isnt 'due' for a bad streak of games. You look at the remainder of the season from scratch, thinking guys will fall off only because theyve been successful is madness. Even if you subscribe to it, you cant single out Jordy Nelson by that logic... SOMEBODY has to fill out your rankings. You just gonna toss out the current top 10 and pencil in 11-20 as the new top 10? Because that's the logical conclusion of that theory.

I never said that you should rank Nelson outside of the top 20 *BECAUSE* he currently ranks inside the top 5. That would be crazy. I'm just saying, if you thought Nelson was not a top-20 receiver before, you don't have to automatically change your mind just because he had a great 3 weeks to start the season. It's perfectly reasonable to remain down on him, especially given the dangerously low target numbers. I understand that Nelson has always given big production on small target totals, but in the long run, I do think his per-target production is not sustainable. I'm largely playing Devil's Advocate, because I thought Nelson was a borderline top-12 receiver before the season and still think he's a borderline top-12 receiver today, I'm just saying, Dodds' position is not indefensible or unreasonable, and it's not really out of line historically.

OK thats fair- the only issue is that with a very strong start... you have to predict a lower average than you originally projected the rest of the way to end the season at your original position. I dont see how a strong start justifies a downgrade for the rest of the way just to make your numbers consistent.

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