The Trent Richardson Thread (3 Viewers)

There are 2 factors that seem to be taken too lightly here...

Opportunity and Possibility

He has the opportunity for sure, hardly any competition actually, and there is the undeniable possibility that playing for the crumbling Browns and being over-matched with the Indy playbook hurt Richardson's stats in 2013.

I'm buying that he still has some fire left in his young and fresh legs. The comparisons to the other Indy RBs carries no weight in my analysis because frankly there's no reason to convince me that last year was bad for Trent, I know that already. He could be a bellcow at the cost of a lesser committee back. I'm willing to take that chance.

stbugs said:

Jrodicus said:

stbugs said:

Blackjacks said:

Donald Brown was a first round rb wasn't he? So obviously has some talent.

I think what the author of this article is saying that due to Browns low amount of touches and a few big runs the #'s look bad for T Rich

but the more Brown got the ball the more things looked a little more even.

One big run out of 7 attempts could be as lucky as good.

T Rich is getting the rock this year and in my opinion, you obviously don't agree nor should you by your thoughts, is going to be a great buy low candidate

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It's a bad argument. You have to look at Brown, Bradshaw and Ballard. Including the playoffs (Brown was the starting RB/bell cow in those games, trying to give a big enough sample), Ballard had one game of 13 carries, Brown had 7 games of 10-17 carries and Bradshaw had 2 games of 15-19 carries.

In those high carry games, those 3 were 136-608 or 4.5ypc. So, as the bell cows and in just about the same number of carries as TRich had all year, these guys had 1.6ypc more on every carry or 55% more yards on every rush.

So, in conclusion, I don't need to read that article to know that it is crap. By every single measure you can think of TRich was bad compared to the Other Colts RBs. 2013 is over, he sucked, let's see what happens in 2014.

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The only measure you've addressed is YPC. That is not every single measure; it's one. How about as a receiver? Pass protection? Short-yardage?

I'll give you YPC. We can disagree on the reasons why, and that's fine. But you are making a huge claim here about him being worse by every measurable. Please, show me any data you have on this to back up your statement.

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All I have posted is data and YPC is pretty much the best stat when it comes to RBs. TRich isn't Sproles and they sure didn't trade a first round pick for him just to have him pass block.

People keep posting those lame articles trying to explain why TRich wasn't the problem when he was historically bad. Simply put he was the 2nd worst running back in the NFL last year (only ahead of street FA/out of the NFL now McGahee) based on having enough carries and the Other Colts RBs (who received almost as many bell cow carries) were the #2 running team in the NFL. There was a huge disparity and honestly, this is a situation where they were on the same team with the same OL and same QBs, etc., so it was an apples to apples comparison.

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ratbast said:

There are 2 factors that seem to be taken too lightly here...

Opportunity and Possibility

He has the opportunity for sure, hardly any competition actually, and there is the undeniable possibility that playing for the crumbling Browns and being over-matched with the Indy playbook hurt Richardson's stats in 2013.

I'm buying that he still has some fire left in his young and fresh legs. The comparisons to the other Indy RBs carries no weight in my analysis because frankly there's no reason to convince me that last year was bad for Trent, I know that already. He could be a bellcow at the cost of a lesser committee back. I'm willing to take that chance.

Click to expand...

There was hardly any competition there last year either, until Richardson played poorly enough to be benched for 3rd / 4th string Donald Brown. Unless Richardson improves, hugely, both Bradshaw and Ballard are going to be major competition.

Also, Richardson doesn't come at the cost of "a lesser committee back." He's currently going as RB19 in redraft, ahead of guys like Matthews, Tate, Rice, Sankey, and Chris Johnson, who are definitely not "lesser committee backs."

Coeur de Lion said:

ratbast said:

There are 2 factors that seem to be taken too lightly here...

Opportunity and Possibility

He has the opportunity for sure, hardly any competition actually, and there is the undeniable possibility that playing for the crumbling Browns and being over-matched with the Indy playbook hurt Richardson's stats in 2013.

I'm buying that he still has some fire left in his young and fresh legs. The comparisons to the other Indy RBs carries no weight in my analysis because frankly there's no reason to convince me that last year was bad for Trent, I know that already. He could be a bellcow at the cost of a lesser committee back. I'm willing to take that chance.

Click to expand...

There was hardly any competition there last year either, until Richardson played poorly enough to be benched for 3rd / 4th string Donald Brown. Unless Richardson improves, hugely, both Bradshaw and Ballard are going to be major competition.

Also, Richardson doesn't come at the cost of "a lesser committee back." He's currently going as RB19 in redraft, ahead of guys like Matthews, Tate, Rice, Sankey, and Chris Johnson, who are definitely not "lesser committee backs."

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FBG's ADP PPR Rankings has him as RB24, behind a lot of those guys you listed. FF Calculator also has him at 24.

ImTheScientist said:

Coeur de Lion said:

ratbast said:

There are 2 factors that seem to be taken too lightly here...

Opportunity and Possibility

He has the opportunity for sure, hardly any competition actually, and there is the undeniable possibility that playing for the crumbling Browns and being over-matched with the Indy playbook hurt Richardson's stats in 2013.

I'm buying that he still has some fire left in his young and fresh legs. The comparisons to the other Indy RBs carries no weight in my analysis because frankly there's no reason to convince me that last year was bad for Trent, I know that already. He could be a bellcow at the cost of a lesser committee back. I'm willing to take that chance.

Click to expand...

There was hardly any competition there last year either, until Richardson played poorly enough to be benched for 3rd / 4th string Donald Brown. Unless Richardson improves, hugely, both Bradshaw and Ballard are going to be major competition.Also, Richardson doesn't come at the cost of "a lesser committee back." He's currently going as RB19 in redraft, ahead of guys like Matthews, Tate, Rice, Sankey, and Chris Johnson, who are definitely not "lesser committee backs."

Click to expand...

FBG's ADP PPR Rankings has him as RB24, behind a lot of those guys you listed. FF Calculator also has him at 24.

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I pulled from MFL and included all scoring systems. Either way, you're probably going to have to take him as an every week starter, so he's not exactly coming cheap in any format.

Coeur de Lion said:

ratbast said:

There are 2 factors that seem to be taken too lightly here...

Opportunity and Possibility

He has the opportunity for sure, hardly any competition actually, and there is the undeniable possibility that playing for the crumbling Browns and being over-matched with the Indy playbook hurt Richardson's stats in 2013.

I'm buying that he still has some fire left in his young and fresh legs. The comparisons to the other Indy RBs carries no weight in my analysis because frankly there's no reason to convince me that last year was bad for Trent, I know that already. He could be a bellcow at the cost of a lesser committee back. I'm willing to take that chance.

Click to expand...

There was hardly any competition there last year either, until Richardson played poorly enough to be benched for 3rd / 4th string Donald Brown. Unless Richardson improves, hugely, both Bradshaw and Ballard are going to be major competition.

Also, Richardson doesn't come at the cost of "a lesser committee back." He's currently going as RB19 in redraft, ahead of guys like Matthews, Tate, Rice, Sankey, and Chris Johnson, who are definitely not "lesser committee backs."

Click to expand...

Like I said, I think its a mistake to count last year at all. I would have Richardson in the same tier as those guys and since that's why I tier, I would have no problem with him being first in that group. Granted my views on players are heavily weighted by my keeper leagues and I don't PPR. He has an opportunity to be a bellcow on an improving team. I like RBs in that situation. Id be very happy with him as my #3 but if those are my choices for my #2, I wouldn't be that thrilled with either.

ratbast said:

Coeur de Lion said:

ratbast said:

There are 2 factors that seem to be taken too lightly here...

Opportunity and Possibility

He has the opportunity for sure, hardly any competition actually, and there is the undeniable possibility that playing for the crumbling Browns and being over-matched with the Indy playbook hurt Richardson's stats in 2013.

I'm buying that he still has some fire left in his young and fresh legs. The comparisons to the other Indy RBs carries no weight in my analysis because frankly there's no reason to convince me that last year was bad for Trent, I know that already. He could be a bellcow at the cost of a lesser committee back. I'm willing to take that chance.

Click to expand...

There was hardly any competition there last year either, until Richardson played poorly enough to be benched for 3rd / 4th string Donald Brown. Unless Richardson improves, hugely, both Bradshaw and Ballard are going to be major competition.

Also, Richardson doesn't come at the cost of "a lesser committee back." He's currently going as RB19 in redraft, ahead of guys like Matthews, Tate, Rice, Sankey, and Chris Johnson, who are definitely not "lesser committee backs."

Click to expand...

Like I said, I think its a mistake to count last year at all. I would have Richardson in the same tier as those guys and since that's why I tier, I would have no problem with him being first in that group. Granted my views on players are heavily weighted by my keeper leagues and I don't PPR. He has an opportunity to be a bellcow on an improving team. I like RBs in that situation. Id be very happy with him as my #3 but if those are my choices for my #2, I wouldn't be that thrilled with either.

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yeah, because they aren't playing football right now.

True Larry. But if preseason doesn't turn me away I cant react based completely on last year out of this guy.

ImTheScientist said:

stbugs said:

Jrodicus said:

stbugs said:

Blackjacks said:

Donald Brown was a first round rb wasn't he? So obviously has some talent.

I think what the author of this article is saying that due to Browns low amount of touches and a few big runs the #'s look bad for T Rich

but the more Brown got the ball the more things looked a little more even.

One big run out of 7 attempts could be as lucky as good.

T Rich is getting the rock this year and in my opinion, you obviously don't agree nor should you by your thoughts, is going to be a great buy low candidate

Click to expand...

It's a bad argument. You have to look at Brown, Bradshaw and Ballard. Including the playoffs (Brown was the starting RB/bell cow in those games, trying to give a big enough sample), Ballard had one game of 13 carries, Brown had 7 games of 10-17 carries and Bradshaw had 2 games of 15-19 carries.

In those high carry games, those 3 were 136-608 or 4.5ypc. So, as the bell cows and in just about the same number of carries as TRich had all year, these guys had 1.6ypc more on every carry or 55% more yards on every rush.

So, in conclusion, I don't need to read that article to know that it is crap. By every single measure you can think of TRich was bad compared to the Other Colts RBs. 2013 is over, he sucked, let's see what happens in 2014.

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The only measure you've addressed is YPC. That is not every single measure; it's one. How about as a receiver? Pass protection? Short-yardage?

I'll give you YPC. We can disagree on the reasons why, and that's fine. But you are making a huge claim here about him being worse by every measurable. Please, show me any data you have on this to back up your statement.

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All I have posted is data and YPC is pretty much the best stat when it comes to RBs. TRich isn't Sproles and they sure didn't trade a first round pick for him just to have him pass block.

People keep posting those lame articles trying to explain why TRich wasn't the problem when he was historically bad. Simply put he was the 2nd worst running back in the NFL last year (only ahead of street FA/out of the NFL now McGahee) based on having enough carries and the Other Colts RBs (who received almost as many bell cow carries) were the #2 running team in the NFL. There was a huge disparity and honestly, this is a situation where they were on the same team with the same OL and same QBs, etc., so it was an apples to apples comparison.

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Here you go as posted by me earlier in this thread with links:

1. Link to the 2013 rushing stats of the Colts. In that link, you will see that minus TRich (Ballard, Brown, Choice, Bradshaw and Herron - i.e. every other RB) the RBs had 172 carries for 863 yards or 5.0 ypc. Note that they combined for 15 more carries than TRich.

2. Link to the 2013 rushing stats for all NFL teams. Note that only 1 team (the Eagles averaged more than 5.0 ypc), so the Other Colts RBs would have been #2 in the NFL in yards per carry.

Yes, I was talking about YPC. If you are trying to be smart and think you caught me, of course I am not talking about rushing yards. Kind of hard to compare RBs with only half of their team's carries and only 172 carries to team totals with 400 or 500+ carries, so YPC is the only way to compare.

ETA: Again, 2013 is over, but man it is annoying to see articles linked in here in July of 2014 trying to justify his awful season when the other RBs actually played phenomenal (#2 in the NFL in ypc behind a "horrendous" OL) with more carries. Let's jump to 2014, please.

ratbast said:

Coeur de Lion said:

ratbast said:

There are 2 factors that seem to be taken too lightly here...

Opportunity and Possibility

He has the opportunity for sure, hardly any competition actually, and there is the undeniable possibility that playing for the crumbling Browns and being over-matched with the Indy playbook hurt Richardson's stats in 2013.

I'm buying that he still has some fire left in his young and fresh legs. The comparisons to the other Indy RBs carries no weight in my analysis because frankly there's no reason to convince me that last year was bad for Trent, I know that already. He could be a bellcow at the cost of a lesser committee back. I'm willing to take that chance.

Click to expand...

There was hardly any competition there last year either, until Richardson played poorly enough to be benched for 3rd / 4th string Donald Brown. Unless Richardson improves, hugely, both Bradshaw and Ballard are going to be major competition.

Also, Richardson doesn't come at the cost of "a lesser committee back." He's currently going as RB19 in redraft, ahead of guys like Matthews, Tate, Rice, Sankey, and Chris Johnson, who are definitely not "lesser committee backs."

Click to expand...

Like I said, I think its a mistake to count last year at all. I would have Richardson in the same tier as those guys and since that's why I tier, I would have no problem with him being first in that group. Granted my views on players are heavily weighted by my keeper leagues and I don't PPR. He has an opportunity to be a bellcow on an improving team. I like RBs in that situation. Id be very happy with him as my #3 but if those are my choices for my #2, I wouldn't be that thrilled with either.

Click to expand...

I agree that looking at how he does in pre-season is very important, but it is a mistake to ignore 2013. TRich has been historically bad so far in effectiveness (YPC) and other RBs in history with lots of carries (400-500+ their first two years) and similar YPC have not had good careers. Even guys like Faulk or Lynch, who had bad 3rd years, had already had 4.0+ ypc years in their first two seasons before they had a stinker. TRich hasn't had that yet, so he has more in common with guys like Karim Abdul-Jabbar and Rashaan Salaam. Even Thomas Jones has the fact that he was on awful Arizona teams (15-33) as an excuse. When was the last time that Arizona had a fantasy relevant RB? When Jones got traded to Tampa, he had 4.6 ypc and then 4.0ypc with Chicago a year later.

Anyway, it is a mistake to assume last season was a fluke that should be ignored. If you can take the risk, I agree that TRich could perform well because right now, he is going to get the opportunity and could improve. That said, if you aren't set elsewhere and you need him to perform as your RB2 every week, you could regret taking him. His situation is largely the same, so there is a big risk he could be a hole in your lineup.

A big question in my mind is if the poor play has been a mental problem. If so, is it correctable? I think TRich has the tools to succeed but I wonder if there is a mental stumbling block. If he does not do it this year, it ain't happening folks.

stbugs said:

ratbast said:

Coeur de Lion said:

ratbast said:

There are 2 factors that seem to be taken too lightly here...

Opportunity and Possibility

He has the opportunity for sure, hardly any competition actually, and there is the undeniable possibility that playing for the crumbling Browns and being over-matched with the Indy playbook hurt Richardson's stats in 2013.

I'm buying that he still has some fire left in his young and fresh legs. The comparisons to the other Indy RBs carries no weight in my analysis because frankly there's no reason to convince me that last year was bad for Trent, I know that already. He could be a bellcow at the cost of a lesser committee back. I'm willing to take that chance.

Click to expand...

There was hardly any competition there last year either, until Richardson played poorly enough to be benched for 3rd / 4th string Donald Brown. Unless Richardson improves, hugely, both Bradshaw and Ballard are going to be major competition.

Also, Richardson doesn't come at the cost of "a lesser committee back." He's currently going as RB19 in redraft, ahead of guys like Matthews, Tate, Rice, Sankey, and Chris Johnson, who are definitely not "lesser committee backs."

Click to expand...

Like I said, I think its a mistake to count last year at all. I would have Richardson in the same tier as those guys and since that's why I tier, I would have no problem with him being first in that group. Granted my views on players are heavily weighted by my keeper leagues and I don't PPR. He has an opportunity to be a bellcow on an improving team. I like RBs in that situation. Id be very happy with him as my #3 but if those are my choices for my #2, I wouldn't be that thrilled with either.

Click to expand...

I agree that looking at how he does in pre-season is very important, but it is a mistake to ignore 2013. TRich has been historically bad so far in effectiveness (YPC) and other RBs in history with lots of carries (400-500+ their first two years) and similar YPC have not had good careers. Even guys like Faulk or Lynch, who had bad 3rd years, had already had 4.0+ ypc years in their first two seasons before they had a stinker. TRich hasn't had that yet, so he has more in common with guys like Karim Abdul-Jabbar and Rashaan Salaam. Even Thomas Jones has the fact that he was on awful Arizona teams (15-33) as an excuse. When was the last time that Arizona had a fantasy relevant RB? When Jones got traded to Tampa, he had 4.6 ypc and then 4.0ypc with Chicago a year later.

Anyway, it is a mistake to assume last season was a fluke that should be ignored. If you can take the risk, I agree that TRich could perform well because right now, he is going to get the opportunity and could improve. That said, if you aren't set elsewhere and you need him to perform as your RB2 every week, you could regret taking him. His situation is largely the same, so there is a big risk he could be a hole in your lineup.

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I dont think it is, as I believe Cleveland was that bad and I can totally disregard Indy. I believe its a mistake not to consider that it was a "fluke" of sorts.

ratbast said:

True Larry. But if preseason doesn't turn me away I cant react based completely on last year out of this guy.

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Then maybe look at the year before when behind a very good OL line superstars Hardesty and Ogbonnaya averaged 4.1 ypc to Trent's 3.6?

Catbird said:

ratbast said:

True Larry. But if preseason doesn't turn me away I cant react based completely on last year out of this guy.

Click to expand...

Then maybe look at the year before when behind a very good OL line superstars Hardesty and Ogbonnaya averaged 4.1 ypc to Trent's 3.6?

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Toby Gerhart had 7.9 ypc last season vs AP's 4.5 ... does that make him better than AP? Why isn't he the starting RB for the Vikings right now? The YPC argument is hilariously short sighted and proves little to nothing when comparing RB's, yet people around here seem to throw it around like it's gospel in these arguments. There's a lot of little things that can greatly impact the YPC number that is just ignored because one number is bigger than the other. There are many change of pace backs in the league with better YPC averages than the people starting above them... does that mean they're the better back? Not at all. It means they're in on different plays with different personel against different defensive fronts and getting different opportunities.

Case and point - Donald Brown vs Trent Richardson.

werdnoynek said:

Catbird said:

ratbast said:

True Larry. But if preseason doesn't turn me away I cant react based completely on last year out of this guy.

Click to expand...

Then maybe look at the year before when behind a very good OL line superstars Hardesty and Ogbonnaya averaged 4.1 ypc to Trent's 3.6?

Click to expand...

Toby Gerhart had 7.9 ypc last season vs AP's 4.5 ... does that make him better than AP? Why isn't he the starting RB for the Vikings right now? The YPC argument is hilariously short sighted and proves little to nothing when comparing RB's, yet people around here seem to throw it around like it's gospel in these arguments. There's a lot of little things that can greatly impact the YPC number that is just ignored because one number is bigger than the other. There are many change of pace backs in the league with better YPC averages than the people starting above them... does that mean they're the better back? Not at all. It means they're in on different plays with different personel against different defensive fronts and getting different opportunities.

Case and point - Donald Brown vs Trent Richardson.

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if ap puts up 1.5 ypc it might.

in the 2 games indy played the titans last year, donald brown had 28 carries for 134 yds and 3 td.

richardson had 13 carries for 41 yds and 0 td.

in the 2 playoff games brown had 28 carries for 118 yds and 1 td

richardson had 4 carries for 1 yard --- no td.........

that's the guy you're comparing to adrian peterson.

must've been a lot of 3rd and longs in the second half of the season.

how about you rephrase your question and ask us if we think gerhart is better than richardson

werdnoynek said:

Catbird said:

ratbast said:

True Larry. But if preseason doesn't turn me away I cant react based completely on last year out of this guy.

Click to expand...

Then maybe look at the year before when behind a very good OL line superstars Hardesty and Ogbonnaya averaged 4.1 ypc to Trent's 3.6?

Click to expand...

Toby Gerhart had 7.9 ypc last season vs AP's 4.5 ... does that make him better than AP? Why isn't he the starting RB for the Vikings right now? The YPC argument is hilariously short sighted and proves little to nothing when comparing RB's, yet people around here seem to throw it around like it's gospel in these arguments. There's a lot of little things that can greatly impact the YPC number that is just ignored because one number is bigger than the other. There are many change of pace backs in the league with better YPC averages than the people starting above them... does that mean they're the better back? Not at all. It means they're in on different plays with different personel against different defensive fronts and getting different opportunities.

Case and point - Donald Brown vs Trent Richardson.

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Agreed somewhat on YPC, but in this case, Richardson has been outperformed by a long string of scrubs over two years and in two different situations. The eyeball test says he has no burst or vision. His volume stats last year sucked as much as his rate metrics. His old team (and Turner knows a thing or two about RBs) saw him through camp and a few games and dumped him off at a huge loss. His new team benched him for Donald Brown in the playoffs last year. In and of itself, each of those things can possibly be explained away. Taken together, they paint a pretty damning picture.

Kool-Aid Larry said:

werdnoynek said:

Catbird said:

ratbast said:

True Larry. But if preseason doesn't turn me away I cant react based completely on last year out of this guy.

Click to expand...

Then maybe look at the year before when behind a very good OL line superstars Hardesty and Ogbonnaya averaged 4.1 ypc to Trent's 3.6?

Click to expand...

Toby Gerhart had 7.9 ypc last season vs AP's 4.5 ... does that make him better than AP? Why isn't he the starting RB for the Vikings right now? The YPC argument is hilariously short sighted and proves little to nothing when comparing RB's, yet people around here seem to throw it around like it's gospel in these arguments. There's a lot of little things that can greatly impact the YPC number that is just ignored because one number is bigger than the other. There are many change of pace backs in the league with better YPC averages than the people starting above them... does that mean they're the better back? Not at all. It means they're in on different plays with different personel against different defensive fronts and getting different opportunities.

Case and point - Donald Brown vs Trent Richardson.

Click to expand...

if ap puts up 1.5 ypc it might.

in the 2 games indy played the titans last year, donald brown had 28 carries for 134 yds and 3 td.

richardson had 13 carries for 41 yds and 0 td.

in the 2 playoff games brown had 28 carries for 118 yds and 1 td

richardson had 4 carries for 1 yard --- no td.........

that's the guy you're comparing to adrian peterson.

must've been a lot of 3rd and longs in the second half of the season.

how about you rephrase your question and ask us if we think gerhart is better than richardson

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I wasn't comparing Richardson to AP. I was merely showing that YPC means little to nothing when comparing running backs. If you want to have that discussion be my guest, but I'd rather not be a part of it.

Fact: Trent supporters don't care what arguments are brought to the table. Their outlook won't be swayed.

Fact: YPC lovers won't like Trent. Even if his ypc balloons up to 10.3 over 16 games next season. They will just find another excuse to hate him! (His drop rate is too high or he doesn't have any runs of 80 yards or longer).

Can't say that I have ever seen back and forth go 57 pages deep. Here's hoping this thing reaches 100!

georg013 said:

Fact: Trent supporters don't care what arguments are brought to the table. Their outlook won't be swayed.

Fact: YPC lovers won't like Trent. Even if his ypc balloons up to 10.3 over 16 games next season. They will just find another excuse to hate him! (His drop rate is too high or he doesn't have any runs of 80 yards or longer).

Can't say that I have ever seen back and forth go 57 pages deep. Here's hoping this thing reaches 100!

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if I see richardson listed at 10 ypc it'll mean I'm suffering from dementia or an epileptic seizure --- so it's true, I won't be very happy.

georg013 said:

Fact: YPC lovers won't like Trent. Even if his ypc balloons up to 10.3 over 16 games next season. They will just find another excuse to hate him! (His drop rate is too high or he doesn't have any runs of 80 yards or longer).

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This just isn't true at all. The vast majority of the negative opinions on Richardson are a result of his play on the field sucking at a historic level. If he comes out and plays well in 2014, I'd imagine most people will honestly reassess. I know I will. Not sure why anyone would look at something as subjective as FF through such a rigid lens, nor why anyone would assume others do the same...

georg013 said:

Fact: Trent supporters don't care what arguments are brought to the table. Their outlook won't be swayed.

Fact: YPC lovers won't like Trent. Even if his ypc balloons up to 10.3 over 16 games next season. They will just find another excuse to hate him! (His drop rate is too high or he doesn't have any runs of 80 yards or longer).

Can't say that I have ever seen back and forth go 57 pages deep. Here's hoping this thing reaches 100!

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If he carries the ball 250+ times at 4.0 YPC then all of his 'haters' will be silenced. He doesn't even need a spectacular YPC to be viewed by everyone as a top dynasty back.

werdnoynek said:

Kool-Aid Larry said:

werdnoynek said:

Catbird said:

ratbast said:

True Larry. But if preseason doesn't turn me away I cant react based completely on last year out of this guy.

Click to expand...

Then maybe look at the year before when behind a very good OL line superstars Hardesty and Ogbonnaya averaged 4.1 ypc to Trent's 3.6?

Click to expand...

Toby Gerhart had 7.9 ypc last season vs AP's 4.5 ... does that make him better than AP? Why isn't he the starting RB for the Vikings right now? The YPC argument is hilariously short sighted and proves little to nothing when comparing RB's, yet people around here seem to throw it around like it's gospel in these arguments. There's a lot of little things that can greatly impact the YPC number that is just ignored because one number is bigger than the other. There are many change of pace backs in the league with better YPC averages than the people starting above them... does that mean they're the better back? Not at all. It means they're in on different plays with different personel against different defensive fronts and getting different opportunities.

Case and point - Donald Brown vs Trent Richardson.

Click to expand...

if ap puts up 1.5 ypc it might.

in the 2 games indy played the titans last year, donald brown had 28 carries for 134 yds and 3 td.

richardson had 13 carries for 41 yds and 0 td.

in the 2 playoff games brown had 28 carries for 118 yds and 1 td

richardson had 4 carries for 1 yard --- no td.........

that's the guy you're comparing to adrian peterson.

must've been a lot of 3rd and longs in the second half of the season.

how about you rephrase your question and ask us if we think gerhart is better than richardson

Click to expand...

I wasn't comparing Richardson to AP. I was merely showing that YPC means little to nothing when comparing running backs. If you want to have that discussion be my guest, but I'd rather not be a part of it.

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YPC means little to nothing when comparing RBs? Seriously, is that your basis for argument? As Larry pointed above and as I pointed to before, the other Colts RBs had about 136 (almost the same as TRich's 157 carries) in their "high carry" games and they averaged 1.5 ypc better. That doesn't mean nothing, that means even in the apples to apples comparisons they were far better.

Also, comparing Gerhart's 36 carries to ADP's 279 carries is downright crazy. The other Colt's RBs had MORE carries than TRich, again a real apples to apples comparison. Brown/Bradshaw/Ballard/Choice/Herron had 172 carries at 5.0 ypc and TRich had 157 carries at 2.9 ypc.

cstu said:

georg013 said:

Fact: Trent supporters don't care what arguments are brought to the table. Their outlook won't be swayed.

Fact: YPC lovers won't like Trent. Even if his ypc balloons up to 10.3 over 16 games next season. They will just find another excuse to hate him! (His drop rate is too high or he doesn't have any runs of 80 yards or longer).

Can't say that I have ever seen back and forth go 57 pages deep. Here's hoping this thing reaches 100!

Click to expand...

If he carries the ball 250+ times at 4.0 YPC then all of his 'haters' will be silenced. He doesn't even need a spectacular YPC to be viewed by everyone as a top dynasty back.

Click to expand...

10.3 ypc? LOL. The extreme examples are ridiculous. Maybe I won't consider him ADP with 250 for 4.0ypc, but I would put him in the Marshawn Lynch area and would think much more highly of him. Outside of old man/street FA/no off season/out of the NFL McGahee, TRich was the worst starting RB yards per carry wise in 2013. To see him at 250 for 4.0 ypc would mean that he got it and he improved greatly from the terrible 2013 version.

stbugs said:

cstu said:

georg013 said:

Fact: Trent supporters don't care what arguments are brought to the table. Their outlook won't be swayed.

Fact: YPC lovers won't like Trent. Even if his ypc balloons up to 10.3 over 16 games next season. They will just find another excuse to hate him! (His drop rate is too high or he doesn't have any runs of 80 yards or longer).

Can't say that I have ever seen back and forth go 57 pages deep. Here's hoping this thing reaches 100!

Click to expand...

If he carries the ball 250+ times at 4.0 YPC then all of his 'haters' will be silenced. He doesn't even need a spectacular YPC to be viewed by everyone as a top dynasty back.

Click to expand...

10.3 ypc? LOL. The extreme examples are ridiculous. Maybe I won't consider him ADP with 250 for 4.0ypc, but I would put him in the Marshawn Lynch area and would think much more highly of him. Outside of old man/street FA/no off season/out of the NFL McGahee, TRich was the worst starting RB yards per carry wise in 2013. To see him at 250 for 4.0 ypc would mean that he got it and he improved greatly from the terrible 2013 version.

Click to expand...

Or that he understands the scheme now.

Even in CLE he didn't really look all that great. Production was good but the skill is questionable. Not throwing in the towel just yet, but again I think this year is the last chance to prove it.

ImTheScientist said:

stbugs said:

cstu said:

georg013 said:

Fact: Trent supporters don't care what arguments are brought to the table. Their outlook won't be swayed.

Fact: YPC lovers won't like Trent. Even if his ypc balloons up to 10.3 over 16 games next season. They will just find another excuse to hate him! (His drop rate is too high or he doesn't have any runs of 80 yards or longer).

Can't say that I have ever seen back and forth go 57 pages deep. Here's hoping this thing reaches 100!

Click to expand...

If he carries the ball 250+ times at 4.0 YPC then all of his 'haters' will be silenced. He doesn't even need a spectacular YPC to be viewed by everyone as a top dynasty back.

Click to expand...

10.3 ypc? LOL. The extreme examples are ridiculous. Maybe I won't consider him ADP with 250 for 4.0ypc, but I would put him in the Marshawn Lynch area and would think much more highly of him. Outside of old man/street FA/no off season/out of the NFL McGahee, TRich was the worst starting RB yards per carry wise in 2013. To see him at 250 for 4.0 ypc would mean that he got it and he improved greatly from the terrible 2013 version.

Click to expand...

Or that he understands the scheme now.

Click to expand...

other than pass protection, most "schemes" for the running back involve running to the left or to the right. i really don't follow the "learning the offense" angle for a running back.

amnesiac said:

ImTheScientist said:

stbugs said:

cstu said:

georg013 said:

Fact: Trent supporters don't care what arguments are brought to the table. Their outlook won't be swayed.

Fact: YPC lovers won't like Trent. Even if his ypc balloons up to 10.3 over 16 games next season. They will just find another excuse to hate him! (His drop rate is too high or he doesn't have any runs of 80 yards or longer).

Can't say that I have ever seen back and forth go 57 pages deep. Here's hoping this thing reaches 100!

Click to expand...

If he carries the ball 250+ times at 4.0 YPC then all of his 'haters' will be silenced. He doesn't even need a spectacular YPC to be viewed by everyone as a top dynasty back.

Click to expand...

10.3 ypc? LOL. The extreme examples are ridiculous. Maybe I won't consider him ADP with 250 for 4.0ypc, but I would put him in the Marshawn Lynch area and would think much more highly of him. Outside of old man/street FA/no off season/out of the NFL McGahee, TRich was the worst starting RB yards per carry wise in 2013. To see him at 250 for 4.0 ypc would mean that he got it and he improved greatly from the terrible 2013 version.

Click to expand...

Or that he understands the scheme now.

Click to expand...

other than pass protection, most "schemes" for the running back involve running to the left or to the right.i really don't follow the "learning the offense" angle for a running back.

Click to expand...

maybe they use code words for left and right

ImTheScientist said:

stbugs said:

cstu said:

georg013 said:

Fact: Trent supporters don't care what arguments are brought to the table. Their outlook won't be swayed.

Fact: YPC lovers won't like Trent. Even if his ypc balloons up to 10.3 over 16 games next season. They will just find another excuse to hate him! (His drop rate is too high or he doesn't have any runs of 80 yards or longer).

Can't say that I have ever seen back and forth go 57 pages deep. Here's hoping this thing reaches 100!

Click to expand...

If he carries the ball 250+ times at 4.0 YPC then all of his 'haters' will be silenced. He doesn't even need a spectacular YPC to be viewed by everyone as a top dynasty back.

Click to expand...

10.3 ypc? LOL. The extreme examples are ridiculous. Maybe I won't consider him ADP with 250 for 4.0ypc, but I would put him in the Marshawn Lynch area and would think much more highly of him. Outside of old man/street FA/no off season/out of the NFL McGahee, TRich was the worst starting RB yards per carry wise in 2013. To see him at 250 for 4.0 ypc would mean that he got it and he improved greatly from the terrible 2013 version.

Click to expand...

Or that he understands the scheme now.

Click to expand...

True, most RBs take more than 16 games to get the scheme. I wish TRich hadn't been so unfortunate to have been traded mid-season. The fact that he only played in 16 games with the Colts is a travesty. How can anyone expect him to get more than 64 yards rushing in a single game. Running back is still the hardest position to learn, which is why most RBs don't blossom until their 3rd year. When drafting RBs, I always use the 3rd year RB rule to find my sleepers. It's kind of a shame that the Colts didn't play him at QB, by game 2, he would have had the entire system down and replaced Luck since Luck wasn't good enough to take the defensive pressure of of TRich. I actually reviewed the entire year's game film and I am starting to think that Luck was sabotaging TRich and only playing good when Brown and Bradshaw were in the backfield.

If he can average 120 yards per carry this year, I will consider him in the 2nd round next year.

stbugs said:

ImTheScientist said:

stbugs said:

cstu said:

georg013 said:

Fact: Trent supporters don't care what arguments are brought to the table. Their outlook won't be swayed.

Fact: YPC lovers won't like Trent. Even if his ypc balloons up to 10.3 over 16 games next season. They will just find another excuse to hate him! (His drop rate is too high or he doesn't have any runs of 80 yards or longer).

Can't say that I have ever seen back and forth go 57 pages deep. Here's hoping this thing reaches 100!

Click to expand...

If he carries the ball 250+ times at 4.0 YPC then all of his 'haters' will be silenced. He doesn't even need a spectacular YPC to be viewed by everyone as a top dynasty back.

Click to expand...

10.3 ypc? LOL. The extreme examples are ridiculous. Maybe I won't consider him ADP with 250 for 4.0ypc, but I would put him in the Marshawn Lynch area and would think much more highly of him. Outside of old man/street FA/no off season/out of the NFL McGahee, TRich was the worst starting RB yards per carry wise in 2013. To see him at 250 for 4.0 ypc would mean that he got it and he improved greatly from the terrible 2013 version.

Click to expand...

Or that he understands the scheme now.

Click to expand...

True, most RBs take more than 16 games to get the scheme. I wish TRich hadn't been so unfortunate to have been traded mid-season. The fact that he only played in 16 games with the Colts is a travesty. How can anyone expect him to get more than 64 yards rushing in a single game. Running back is still the hardest position to learn, which is why most RBs don't blossom until their 3rd year. When drafting RBs, I always use the 3rd year RB rule to find my sleepers. It's kind of a shame that the Colts didn't play him at QB, by game 2, he would have had the entire system down and replaced Luck since Luck wasn't good enough to take the defensive pressure of of TRich. I actually reviewed the entire year's game film and I am starting to think that Luck was sabotaging TRich and only playing good when Brown and Bradshaw were in the backfield.

Click to expand...

I think my Sarcasm'o'meter just exploded

other than pass protection, most "schemes" for the running back involve running to the left or to the right.

i really don't follow the "learning the offense" angle for a running back.

Click to expand...

I'm no Richardson apologist as we've all seen here, but there's a lot more to running the football in the NFL than just which side of the line to head to. Timing on run plays is everything, since D players are so strong, agile, fast, and experienced. It's why the seams are smaller and the holes are only open for a short time. Run a trap play in high school and the DT steps into the hole created and gets creamed by the pulling guard. Run that in the pros and the DT follows the double teaming guard down the line and then leverages the pulling guard into the backfield or slips behind him and stops the play for no gain. Timing becomes critical. Then you have a tremendous amount to misdirection to use the D players' own aggressiveness against them, which is timing and correct pattern. It's much more complicated. That said, running the football is still relatively basic. A bell cow RB in the NFL learned how to time his attack long before he got to where he is. He should understand patience and then be able to attack the opening when it appears. He should see alternative lanes when the D blows up the planned point of attack. He ought to be able to use his own agility and knowledge of his path to set D players up and make them more vulnerable.

A lot of these areas are where Richardson fails. He's more of a missile - you need to aim him at a hole and hope the O-line gets it open when he gets there. He creates very little for himself and isn't very astute at attacking alternative paths. He reminds me a lot of a more athletic Samkon Gado in his running. He got away with that at Bama because the O-line was so dominant that they could run where they chose. It doesn't work well in the bigs where even dominant players have a much smaller margin against their opponents.

Even given that Richardson was not confident in the entire playbook, he should have been capable enough as a runner to take advantage of what was there. This nonsense of blaming the O-line for all of Richardson's woes is awfully pathetic when you look at what the amalgam of allegedly much lesser backs did in the same O with the same blocking. A good RB helps his O-linemen with their angles and leverage - a lean here, and twist of the pads there, a jab step, and the D player takes a lean or false step the wrong way and now the O-lineman has him walled off or on skates. Richardson does almost nothing in that regard. And being sent between the tackles a substantial amount? That's where bell cow RBs make their hay. It's the shortest distance upfield and the quickest time to get there. Richardson's lack of credibility pressing the edge and in stretch plays make D scheming against him much easier. D line assignments against him don't have to be complicated. Teams don't need to run stunt or run blitz because his game is so simplistic.

And the "ypc means nothing" argument is quite frankly foolish. Down and distance mean a ton for success in the NFL. 3rd and 3 is much easier to convert than 3rd and. 6. 2nd and 5 lets the O dictate the D a lot more than 2nd and 8. A RB who can't get an average of 4.0 ypc or better puts his QB in a tougher spot more regularly and makes the D's job easier by taking away parts of the playbook on certain downs. His 2.9 ypc was atrocious and why he eventually gave way to Brown. The IND offense suffered significantly because of Richardson's inability to put them in more favorable down and distance. The O functioned better and was more diverse with Brown in the backfield. And if he is as talented a RB as some claim, he would have done enough through his own efforts to move his ypc up at least 0.5 ypc or more - again, especially when allegedly lesser RBs were getting it done.

I understand some guys being such strong Richardson proponents - they made some predraft claims that put them out on a limb or they burned a top draft pick on him. Yeah, maybe you believe enough that you hold out hope that this season is the season. But you can't just make stuff up and then expect others here to just nod their heads and go along for the ride you're on.

i was clearly being overly simplistic.

thank you for that well thought out and well written post.

amnesiac said:

i was clearly being overly simplistic.

thank you for that well thought out and well written post.

Click to expand...

I know. I think I was concerned others might read too much into it and turn on you for it.

Every page of this thread is like "Groundhog Day". I'm at the point where I play "I Got You Babe" right before I click to open it.

It's like a that I can't look away from. There will be support groups founded just for participants and readers of this thread.

I lost my drive to reason here back on page 3 or so(Then I somehow got tricked into trying again when some numbnuts started another TRich thread), but I think I have found a decent comp who he may be able to live up to. Whether it's his vision, intelligence, dancing around too much, O-line, OC, changing teams, injuries, sex videos whatever. Is it fixable, is it not fixable, nobody knows so why argue? However, can we at least agree that there is a possibility of him still having a Marcus Allen type of career? Low YPC on rushes, lots of action in the passing game. I would be happy with this from him and I think it's attainable regardless of whatever his problem has been up to this point. Ok. Go ahead and tear me apart, or better yet, agree with me

stbugs said:

werdnoynek said:

Kool-Aid Larry said:

werdnoynek said:

Catbird said:

ratbast said:

True Larry. But if preseason doesn't turn me away I cant react based completely on last year out of this guy.

Click to expand...

Then maybe look at the year before when behind a very good OL line superstars Hardesty and Ogbonnaya averaged 4.1 ypc to Trent's 3.6?

Click to expand...

Toby Gerhart had 7.9 ypc last season vs AP's 4.5 ... does that make him better than AP? Why isn't he the starting RB for the Vikings right now? The YPC argument is hilariously short sighted and proves little to nothing when comparing RB's, yet people around here seem to throw it around like it's gospel in these arguments. There's a lot of little things that can greatly impact the YPC number that is just ignored because one number is bigger than the other. There are many change of pace backs in the league with better YPC averages than the people starting above them... does that mean they're the better back? Not at all. It means they're in on different plays with different personel against different defensive fronts and getting different opportunities.

Case and point - Donald Brown vs Trent Richardson.

Click to expand...

if ap puts up 1.5 ypc it might.

in the 2 games indy played the titans last year, donald brown had 28 carries for 134 yds and 3 td.

richardson had 13 carries for 41 yds and 0 td.

in the 2 playoff games brown had 28 carries for 118 yds and 1 td

richardson had 4 carries for 1 yard --- no td.........

that's the guy you're comparing to adrian peterson.

must've been a lot of 3rd and longs in the second half of the season.

how about you rephrase your question and ask us if we think gerhart is better than richardson

Click to expand...

I wasn't comparing Richardson to AP. I was merely showing that YPC means little to nothing when comparing running backs. If you want to have that discussion be my guest, but I'd rather not be a part of it.

Click to expand...

YPC means little to nothing when comparing RBs? Seriously, is that your basis for argument? As Larry pointed above and as I pointed to before, the other Colts RBs had about 136 (almost the same as TRich's 157 carries) in their "high carry" games and they averaged 1.5 ypc better. That doesn't mean nothing, that means even in the apples to apples comparisons they were far better.

Also, comparing Gerhart's 36 carries to ADP's 279 carries is downright crazy. The other Colt's RBs had MORE carries than TRich, again a real apples to apples comparison. Brown/Bradshaw/Ballard/Choice/Herron had 172 carries at 5.0 ypc and TRich had 157 carries at 2.9 ypc.

Click to expand...

I don't see much difference in comparing Gerhart to AP vs grouping all the other Colts RB's together and comparing them to TRich. Surely you meant to say APPLES to APPLE right?

werdnoynek said:

I don't see much difference in comparing Gerhart to AP vs grouping all the other Colts RB's together and comparing them to TRich. Surely you meant to say APPLES to APPLE right?

Click to expand...

Yes. We know. You consider a sample size of 36 carries to be equally influenced by anomalous conditions as a sample of 279 carries.

That's exactly the same as comparing a sample size of 157 carries to an amalgam that totals 167 carries.

Apples to apples - to you. And that you think they are equivalent conditions, more power to you. But others might notice the differing conditions and draw a different opinion, even though you can't comprehend it.

Bronco Billy said:

werdnoynek said:

I don't see much difference in comparing Gerhart to AP vs grouping all the other Colts RB's together and comparing them to TRich. Surely you meant to say APPLES to APPLE right?

Click to expand...

Yes. We know. You consider a sample size of 36 carries to be equally influenced by anomalous conditions as a sample of 279 carries. That's exactly the same as comparing a sample size of 157 carries to an amalgam that totals 167 carries.

Apples to apples - to you. And that you think they are equivalent conditions, more power to you. But others might notice the differing conditions and draw a different opinion, even though you can't comprehend it.

Click to expand...

I don't though, which is precisely why I brought it up... to show how silly it is to compare a change of pace guy to a lead back.

jmo87usc said:

Every page of this thread is like "Groundhog Day". I'm at the point where I play "I Got You Babe" right before I click to open it.

It's like a that I can't look away from. There will be support groups founded just for participants and readers of this thread.

I lost my drive to reason here back on page 3 or so(Then I somehow got tricked into trying again when some numbnuts started another TRich thread), but I think I have found a decent comp who he may be able to live up to. Whether it's his vision, intelligence, dancing around too much, O-line, OC, changing teams, injuries, sex videos whatever. Is it fixable, is it not fixable, nobody knows so why argue? However, can we at least agree that there is a possibility of him still having a Marcus Allen type of career? Low YPC on rushes, lots of action in the passing game. I would be happy with this from him and I think it's attainable regardless of whatever his problem has been up to this point. Ok. Go ahead and tear me apart, or better yet, agree with me

Click to expand...

this may be the best thread ever

hall of famer , 12k rusher and nfl legend marcus allen.......?

I KNEW he reminded me of somebody last year but I couldn't place it !!!

that's been bugging me all offseason bro

werdnoynek said:

Bronco Billy said:

werdnoynek said:

I don't see much difference in comparing Gerhart to AP vs grouping all the other Colts RB's together and comparing them to TRich. Surely you meant to say APPLES to APPLE right?

Click to expand...

Yes. We know. You consider a sample size of 36 carries to be equally influenced by anomalous conditions as a sample of 279 carries. That's exactly the same as comparing a sample size of 157 carries to an amalgam that totals 167 carries.

Apples to apples - to you. And that you think they are equivalent conditions, more power to you. But others might notice the differing conditions and draw a different opinion, even though you can't comprehend it.

Click to expand...

I don't though, which is precisely why I brought it up... to show how silly it is to compare a change of pace guy to a lead back.

Click to expand...

And Brown et al were nothing more than CoP guys? That's you basis for your position?Brown, Bradshaw, and Ballard accounted for 8 starts. Richardson had 8 starts. Those guys individually accounted for the majority of carries in 7 games with Richardson having the majority in 9.

That's a CoP profile for the non-Richardson RBs?

Bronco Billy said:

werdnoynek said:

Bronco Billy said:

werdnoynek said:

I don't see much difference in comparing Gerhart to AP vs grouping all the other Colts RB's together and comparing them to TRich. Surely you meant to say APPLES to APPLE right?

Click to expand...

Yes. We know. You consider a sample size of 36 carries to be equally influenced by anomalous conditions as a sample of 279 carries.That's exactly the same as comparing a sample size of 157 carries to an amalgam that totals 167 carries.

Apples to apples - to you. And that you think they are equivalent conditions, more power to you. But others might notice the differing conditions and draw a different opinion, even though you can't comprehend it.

Click to expand...

I don't though, which is precisely why I brought it up... to show how silly it is to compare a change of pace guy to a lead back.

Click to expand...

And Brown et al were nothing more than CoP guys? That's you basis for your position?Brown, Bradshaw, and Ballard accounted for 8 starts. Richardson had 8 starts. Those guys individually accounted for the majority of carries in 7 games with Richardson having the majority in 9.

That's a CoP profile for the non-Richardson RBs?

Click to expand...

The number of carries doesn't determine the role they play in the offense... a change of pace back could get more opportunities than a lead back if the game dictates it. Majority of Brown's (et al) carries came in a different role than Richardson. Different plays, different defensive fronts, and different offensive personel. That's what the article linked previously went into detail on and that's what people, including yourself it seems, continue to ignore.

Kool-Aid Larry said:

jmo87usc said:

Every page of this thread is like "Groundhog Day". I'm at the point where I play "I Got You Babe" right before I click to open it.

It's like a that I can't look away from. There will be support groups founded just for participants and readers of this thread.

I lost my drive to reason here back on page 3 or so(Then I somehow got tricked into trying again when some numbnuts started another TRich thread), but I think I have found a decent comp who he may be able to live up to. Whether it's his vision, intelligence, dancing around too much, O-line, OC, changing teams, injuries, sex videos whatever. Is it fixable, is it not fixable, nobody knows so why argue? However, can we at least agree that there is a possibility of him still having a Marcus Allen type of career? Low YPC on rushes, lots of action in the passing game. I would be happy with this from him and I think it's attainable regardless of whatever his problem has been up to this point. Ok. Go ahead and tear me apart, or better yet, agree with me

Click to expand...

this may be the best thread ever

hall of famer , 12k rusher and nfl legend marcus allen.......?

I KNEW he reminded me of somebody last year but I couldn't place it !!!

that's been bugging me all offseason bro

Click to expand...

Ha! You may have out-emoticon'd me but you'll never break my spirits Kool Aid Larry!!! I knew I could troll somebody by bringing a HOF name into this discussion. I love your response though. Touche'

Now seriously, if I had instead asked, "do you think there is a chance TRich could produce a stat line like this over the course of his career?":

162 carries/yr, 596 rush yards/yr, 3.68 YPC, 29 catches/yr, 260 rec yards/yr, 7 total TD/yr

If you honestly answer no to this, then fine. But I don't see how anyone can come to that conclusion at this point in time. I think he can match or exceed these numbers pretty easily.

Now I am not saying he will be a hall of famer like Allen. There are reasons to why Allen is in the hall of fame other than just his stats. Also, I will admit I fished here because I only used the last 12 years of Allen's career and left out his three best years. But my point is that if a HOF RB played the final 12 years of his career averaging these stats, then I think TRich can last in the NFL longer than another year or two even if he never produces top 10 numbers. I can see him being a valuable asset to the Colts dynasty over the next 5-8 years and being serviceable for fantasy purposes as an RB2 as well. Those who are writing him off and saying he will be out of the league in 2 years are being short sighted.

werdnoynek said:

Bronco Billy said:

werdnoynek said:

Bronco Billy said:

werdnoynek said:

I don't see much difference in comparing Gerhart to AP vs grouping all the other Colts RB's together and comparing them to TRich. Surely you meant to say APPLES to APPLE right?

Click to expand...

Yes. We know. You consider a sample size of 36 carries to be equally influenced by anomalous conditions as a sample of 279 carries.That's exactly the same as comparing a sample size of 157 carries to an amalgam that totals 167 carries.

Apples to apples - to you. And that you think they are equivalent conditions, more power to you. But others might notice the differing conditions and draw a different opinion, even though you can't comprehend it.

Click to expand...

I don't though, which is precisely why I brought it up... to show how silly it is to compare a change of pace guy to a lead back.

Click to expand...

And Brown et al were nothing more than CoP guys? That's you basis for your position?Brown, Bradshaw, and Ballard accounted for 8 starts. Richardson had 8 starts. Those guys individually accounted for the majority of carries in 7 games with Richardson having the majority in 9.

That's a CoP profile for the non-Richardson RBs?

Click to expand...

The number of carries doesn't determine the role they play in the offense... a change of pace back could get more opportunities than a lead back if the game dictates it. Majority of Brown's (et al) carries came in a different role than Richardson. Different plays, different defensive fronts, and different offensive personel. That's what the article linked previously went into detail on and that's what people, including yourself it seems, continue to ignore.

Click to expand...

And with this I'll bow out and let the coming season decide it. Some people can explain away anything.

ESPN Colts reporter Mike Wells believes Trent Richardson will not be given a long leash by the team if he doesn't produce quickly this season.
Wells calls it "unlikely" the Colts would "wait for him to get going" if Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard show well early, either in training camp, the preseason, or regular season games. With two weeks before camp opens, T-Rich's fantasy Average Draft Position has settled into the middle of round five. He's going ahead of Ben Tate, Joique Bell, Stevan Ridley, and Steven Jackson.

jmo87usc said:

Kool-Aid Larry said:

jmo87usc said:

Every page of this thread is like "Groundhog Day". I'm at the point where I play "I Got You Babe" right before I click to open it.

It's like a that I can't look away from. There will be support groups founded just for participants and readers of this thread.

I lost my drive to reason here back on page 3 or so(Then I somehow got tricked into trying again when some numbnuts started another TRich thread), but I think I have found a decent comp who he may be able to live up to. Whether it's his vision, intelligence, dancing around too much, O-line, OC, changing teams, injuries, sex videos whatever. Is it fixable, is it not fixable, nobody knows so why argue? However, can we at least agree that there is a possibility of him still having a Marcus Allen type of career? Low YPC on rushes, lots of action in the passing game. I would be happy with this from him and I think it's attainable regardless of whatever his problem has been up to this point. Ok. Go ahead and tear me apart, or better yet, agree with me

Click to expand...

this may be the best thread ever

hall of famer , 12k rusher and nfl legend marcus allen.......?

I KNEW he reminded me of somebody last year but I couldn't place it !!!

that's been bugging me all offseason bro

Click to expand...

Ha! You may have out-emoticon'd me but you'll never break my spirits Kool Aid Larry!!! I knew I could troll somebody by bringing a HOF name into this discussion. I love your response though. Touche'

Now seriously, if I had instead asked, "do you think there is a chance TRich could produce a stat line like this over the course of his career?":

162 carries/yr, 596 rush yards/yr, 3.68 YPC, 29 catches/yr, 260 rec yards/yr, 7 total TD/yr

If you honestly answer no to this, then fine. But I don't see how anyone can come to that conclusion at this point in time. I think he can match or exceed these numbers pretty easily.

Now I am not saying he will be a hall of famer like Allen. There are reasons to why Allen is in the hall of fame other than just his stats. Also, I will admit I fished here because I only used the last 12 years of Allen's career and left out his three best years. But my point is that if a HOF RB played the final 12 years of his career averaging these stats, then I think TRich can last in the NFL longer than another year or two even if he never produces top 10 numbers. I can see him being a valuable asset to the Colts dynasty over the next 5-8 years and being serviceable for fantasy purposes as an RB2 as well. Those who are writing him off and saying he will be out of the league in 2 years are being short sighted.

Click to expand...

hmmmm....let me do some math on this --- mostly because I like math.

after 455 carries he's at 3.3 ypc on the career.

this should be about his last season in the league, and probably benched for half of it, so I'd estimate he gets maybe another 100 carries to bring that 3.3 up to allen's 3.7 ypc when he was in his 40s, and is most likely cherry picked as his worst year in a 20 yr career.

anyway, that's about 500 yds this year on those 100 carries for a 5 ypc in 2014 --- so, no, I don't think he can produce a career stat line like that.

Kool-Aid Larry said:

jmo87usc said:

Kool-Aid Larry said:

jmo87usc said:

Every page of this thread is like "Groundhog Day". I'm at the point where I play "I Got You Babe" right before I click to open it.

It's like a that I can't look away from. There will be support groups founded just for participants and readers of this thread.

I lost my drive to reason here back on page 3 or so(Then I somehow got tricked into trying again when some numbnuts started another TRich thread), but I think I have found a decent comp who he may be able to live up to. Whether it's his vision, intelligence, dancing around too much, O-line, OC, changing teams, injuries, sex videos whatever. Is it fixable, is it not fixable, nobody knows so why argue? However, can we at least agree that there is a possibility of him still having a Marcus Allen type of career? Low YPC on rushes, lots of action in the passing game. I would be happy with this from him and I think it's attainable regardless of whatever his problem has been up to this point. Ok. Go ahead and tear me apart, or better yet, agree with me

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this may be the best thread ever

hall of famer , 12k rusher and nfl legend marcus allen.......?

I KNEW he reminded me of somebody last year but I couldn't place it !!!

that's been bugging me all offseason bro

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Ha! You may have out-emoticon'd me but you'll never break my spirits Kool Aid Larry!!! I knew I could troll somebody by bringing a HOF name into this discussion. I love your response though. Touche'

Now seriously, if I had instead asked, "do you think there is a chance TRich could produce a stat line like this over the course of his career?":

162 carries/yr, 596 rush yards/yr, 3.68 YPC, 29 catches/yr, 260 rec yards/yr, 7 total TD/yr

If you honestly answer no to this, then fine. But I don't see how anyone can come to that conclusion at this point in time. I think he can match or exceed these numbers pretty easily.

Now I am not saying he will be a hall of famer like Allen. There are reasons to why Allen is in the hall of fame other than just his stats. Also, I will admit I fished here because I only used the last 12 years of Allen's career and left out his three best years. But my point is that if a HOF RB played the final 12 years of his career averaging these stats, then I think TRich can last in the NFL longer than another year or two even if he never produces top 10 numbers. I can see him being a valuable asset to the Colts dynasty over the next 5-8 years and being serviceable for fantasy purposes as an RB2 as well. Those who are writing him off and saying he will be out of the league in 2 years are being short sighted.

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hmmmm....let me do some math on this --- mostly because I like math.

after 455 carries he's at 3.3 ypc on the career.

this should be about his last season in the league, and probably benched for half of it, so I'd estimate he gets maybe another 100 carries to bring that 3.3 up to allen's 3.7 ypc when he was in his 40s, and is most likely cherry picked as his worst year in a 20 yr career.

anyway, that's about 500 yds this year on those 100 carries for a 5 ypc in 2014 --- so, no, I don't think he can produce a career stat line like that.

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That's hilarious.

JohnnyU said:

ESPN Colts reporter Mike Wells believes Trent Richardson will not be given a long leash by the team if he doesn't produce quickly this season.
Wells calls it "unlikely" the Colts would "wait for him to get going" if Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard show well early, either in training camp, the preseason, or regular season games. With two weeks before camp opens, T-Rich's fantasy Average Draft Position has settled into the middle of round five. He's going ahead of Ben Tate, Joique Bell, Stevan Ridley, and Steven Jackson.

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His hold on the starting job is tenuous at best and given to him by default since his primary competition is coming off injuries.

forget the jokes and emoticons for a minute

ima come right out and say it

ahmad bradshaw will shut this thread down forever

MARK IT DOWN!!!!4!

Yeah, lets see how long of a leash he will have when the two other injury proven over-drafted RBs get their 30 carries for the year.

Bronco Billy said:

werdnoynek said:

Bronco Billy said:

werdnoynek said:

Bronco Billy said:

werdnoynek said:

I don't see much difference in comparing Gerhart to AP vs grouping all the other Colts RB's together and comparing them to TRich. Surely you meant to say APPLES to APPLE right?

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Yes. We know. You consider a sample size of 36 carries to be equally influenced by anomalous conditions as a sample of 279 carries.That's exactly the same as comparing a sample size of 157 carries to an amalgam that totals 167 carries.

Apples to apples - to you. And that you think they are equivalent conditions, more power to you. But others might notice the differing conditions and draw a different opinion, even though you can't comprehend it.

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I don't though, which is precisely why I brought it up... to show how silly it is to compare a change of pace guy to a lead back.

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And Brown et al were nothing more than CoP guys? That's you basis for your position?Brown, Bradshaw, and Ballard accounted for 8 starts. Richardson had 8 starts. Those guys individually accounted for the majority of carries in 7 games with Richardson having the majority in 9.

That's a CoP profile for the non-Richardson RBs?

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The number of carries doesn't determine the role they play in the offense... a change of pace back could get more opportunities than a lead back if the game dictates it. Majority of Brown's (et al) carries came in a different role than Richardson. Different plays, different defensive fronts, and different offensive personel. That's what the article linked previously went into detail on and that's what people, including yourself it seems, continue to ignore.

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And with this I'll bow out and let the coming season decide it. Some people can explain away anything.

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Agreed, amazing to me. Somewhere many pages ago, we showed stats on how Brown had similar 1st and 10/short yardage carries, yet performed better, but it just never made a dent. No matter how many apples to apple(s) comparisons we provide with RBs on the same team with the same OL and QB, we get told that TRich was the best RB at breaking tackles and actually had a better season than Jamal Charles if we just ignored the 2.9 ypc because yards per carry isn't a good measure for RBs. I am starting to think these guys trying to defend his 2013 season might argue that points scored is a terrible way to measure how effective a team's offense is or that wins isn't a good measure of team success.

Week 14 IND @ Cleveland.