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QB Marcus Mariota, WAS (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Grahamburn
Footballguy
You mean to tell me a QB can learn to do this after playing strictly in a gimmicky offense in college?! :hogwash:cstu said:
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Ugh. You guys are right, I totally said he'll never be able to make those throws.
As I said on the last page, I'm looking at adding a QB in one of my dyno leagues. In the bowl game, I watched Winston stand in the pocket and make throws into tight windows that I am accustomed to seeing on Sundays. I didn't see that from Mariota. It was a pretty stark difference frankly. Now that doesn't mean I'm not open to taking Mariota. We get to watch him next week, and I'm sure we'll hear about his pro day.
pantherclub
Footballguy
If I am the bucs I make a strong play for Trestman. I think he has a great nfl offensive mind
fredsavage
Footballguy
Would mariota bring an a&m feel to bucs offense? Johnny scrambling often led to evans having a ton of time to escape and box out defenders. This could be good for evans, but I'm not sure as an evans owner what to make of having an athletic less proven pocket passer as his qb
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Whatever the Bucs do at QB will be better than what they had in 2014, and that's good news for Evans' owners.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I'm just busting balls. We aren't going to know if MM can throw into these tight windows or not until he's played in the NFL for three years. Just because he hasn't had to do it on as consistent a basis as Winston doesn't mean he can't.
Tannehill was barely a 60% passer at A & M.
jurb26
Footballguy
Tannehill also played WR more than QB while at TAM. He was only a QB for 1 full season.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
Yes, I know, and he's starting to look like a franchise QB for the Dolphins. That's the point. Are you going to use Mariota's experience as a negative now?
DVR set up for Monday night?
jurb26
Footballguy
Use it is a negative? Of course I'll be recording the game.Yes, I know, and he's starting to look like a franchise QB for the Dolphins. That's the point. Are you going to use Mariota's experience as a negative now?
DVR set up for Monday night?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
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jurb26
Footballguy
Right, he had 1 full season. Count it however you want. He was learning on the job. He was also not barely a 60% passer. He was over 62%.He started 7 games in his junior year tor do only "full seasons" count now?
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jurb26
Footballguy
Ironically, here's a nice article about Tannehill. Seems to fit in nicely with the thread now because of the comps and the fact that many seem to want to throw stats around.
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2012/03/12/why-ryan-tannehill-is-a-first-round-prospect/
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2012/03/12/why-ryan-tannehill-is-a-first-round-prospect/
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves incorrectly in your post, but you seemed to be alluding to using Tannehill's lack of experience as a QB in college as an excuse for a low completion percentage?Use it is a negative?Of course I'll be recording the game.Yes, I know, and he's starting to look like a franchise QB for the Dolphins. That's the point. Are you going to use Mariota's experience as a negative now?
DVR set up for Monday night?
Or put another way, saying Mariota's much higher completion percentage in a similar offensive scheme is a reflection of the additional experience he has and not his talent.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
61.6% in his "full season."Right, he had 1 full season.Count it however you want. He was learning on the job. He was also not barely a 60% passer. He was over 62%.He started 7 games in his junior year to
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
My bad. I didn't get that you were being pro-Tannehill.61.6% in his "full season."Right, he had 1 full season.Count it however you want. He was learning on the job. He was also not barely a 60% passer. He was over 62%.He started 7 games in his junior year to
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I wasn't. Pro-Mariota more than anything. Using Tannehill as a projection example. I think they're a good comparison.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Honest question. Winston has a huge amount of off the field red flags. Obviously QB is a position that is your team leader, face of the franchise, as well as probably the most mentally challenging position in all of sports. Contrast that with the Heisman winner Mariota. No off the field red flags that we know of. Huge production in college. I heard Mike and Mike talking about the two of them this AM. Golic said he absolutely would take Winston 1st overall if he was Tampa. So onto the question, if Tampa takes Winston despite his red flags ahead of Mariota, what does that say about MM?
mr roboto
Footballguy
What that says is the Tampa Bay Bucs like Winston better. That's all that you can infer about Mariota from Tampa choosing to take Winston. Now if Mariota falls deep into the first round then based on several quarterback needy teams passing on him you might be able to make some inferences about people's opinion on Mariota.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
CalBear
Footballguy
What did it say about Aaron Rodgers that his home-town team chose Alex Smith instead of him?
Nothing. It said that Niners leadership sucked.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Yes. But then again, they are picking #1 overall.Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
jurb26
Footballguy
The point is that the stats alone are a rather meaningless barometer.Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves incorrectly in your post, but you seemed to be alluding to using Tannehill's lack of experience as a QB in college as an excuse for a low completion percentage?Use it is a negative?Of course I'll be recording the game.Yes, I know, and he's starting to look like a franchise QB for the Dolphins. That's the point. Are you going to use Mariota's experience as a negative now?
DVR set up for Monday night?
Or put another way, saying Mariota's much higher completion percentage in a similar offensive scheme is a reflection of the additional experience he has and not his talent.
Quez
Footballguy
If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
rdrouyn
Footballguy
I think Tannehill is a pretty decent comparison and if they can get a Bill Lazor on the team that drafts him, he could be just as effective. Another name im going to throw out there is Alex Smith. Decent starter, athletic runner, can make all of the short throws, but doesnt pressure the offense with his arm. MM has a better arm and a better athlete from what I gather, but if he doesnt get better deep accuracy he could end up in that category.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
Happens all the time. If there are questions regarding maturity, commitment, professionalism, leadership, etc. I definitely think you can take the "lesser" prospect. Especially at that position. You have to project growth.If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
jurb26
Footballguy
So you're willing to project physical growth but not maturity, ect... Whatever you call Winston?Happens all the time. If there are questions regarding maturity, commitment, professionalism, leadership, etc. I definitely think you can take the "lesser" prospect. Especially at that position. You have to project growth.If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
mr roboto
Footballguy
this logic presumes that 'off-field red flags' are outside of the considerations that factor into 'best QB in the draft.' It's almost like you think character and maturity are not part of what makes a QB great or not. That's the problem with Winston. Whether he's the 'best QB in the draft' I don't know but I'm not sure I can separate out the red flags as somehow not part of the core analysis.If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
CalBear
Footballguy
Head issues are part of what make or break a QB. Of those 50% who fail, a lot of them fail not because their arms don't work or their feet don't work, they fail because their head doesn't work. Many of the biggest busts are that way: Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell to name two.If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
mr roboto
Footballguy
It's far easier for a team and coaching staff to contribute to growth of skill and knowledge of game than it is for them to contribute to the growth of character and maturity. Imagine you are hiring sales people. You have 2 candidates. One has all the tools, knows how to close deals. Is polished and knows his script and process. But there are real concerns about his character, in small ways. May be very arrogant, doesn't seem to learn from past mistakes very well.So you're willing to project physical growth but not maturity, ect... Whatever you call Winston?Happens all the time. If there are questions regarding maturity, commitment, professionalism, leadership, etc. I definitely think you can take the "lesser" prospect. Especially at that position. You have to project growth.If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
The other is a natural people person. Hard worker, liked by everybody at his previous employ. The former company was very successful but you know their process, scripts, sales tools were not as sophisticated as yours. This candidate has no questions regarding his work ethic, character, leadership. But he's going to need more skill training at the finer points of sales that candidate 1.
This is the crux iMO. If you take Mariota you know you have more work to do with the finer points of running a pocket offense. If you take Winston you know you have to work to either nature him or keep a handler around.
cstu
Footballguy
If someone says Winston is better than Mariota right now (as in who would have a better NFL rookie season next year) then they have a good argument.this logic presumes that 'off-field red flags' are outside of the considerations that factor into 'best QB in the draft.' It's almost like you think character and maturity are not part of what makes a QB great or not.That's the problem with Winston. Whether he's the 'best QB in the draft' I don't know but I'm not sure I can separate out the red flags as somehow not part of the core analysis.If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
However, I seriously question Winston's dedication to getting better once he's in the NFL. Winston is a big gamble because while I think he has the talent for the NFL I don't trust his mental makeup.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I agree with your evaluation of Winston. He's the more pro ready QB, but I don't think his mindset or attitude translates. By the time he matures enough to "figure it out" he'd either be out of the league or on another team.So you're willing to project physical growth but not maturity, ect... Whatever you call Winston?Happens all the time. If there are questions regarding maturity, commitment, professionalism, leadership, etc. I definitely think you can take the "lesser" prospect. Especially at that position. You have to project growth.If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
Kind of like the reports of JaMarcus finally starting to work out once he'd already been out of the league for 3 years.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
High fives all around. We're all saying the same thing.
Touchdown Syndrome
Footballguy
Haha, i was going to say the same thing.
Both are top prospects...one is more pro-ready and the superior NFL prototype but with character concerns...one is an ultra-athlete with spotless off-the-field image, but needs more pro coaching/polish.
I prefer rolling the dice with Winston, but I'd take either on my Jets.
Quez
Footballguy
If either of these guys scream "head issues" it's Marcus Mariota. From the few times I have heard him talk he reminded me of the soft spoken Josh Freeman, and he turned out to be the biggest screw ball since Barrett Robins.Head issues are part of what make or break a QB. Of those 50% who fail, a lot of them fail not because their arms don't work or their feet don't work, they fail because their head doesn't work. Many of the biggest busts are that way: Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell to name two.If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
You couldn't be more wrong.If either of these guys scream "head issues" it's Marcus Mariota. From the few times I have heard him talk he reminded me of the soft spoken Josh Freeman, and he turned out to be the biggest screw ball since Barrett Robins.Head issues are part of what make or break a QB. Of those 50% who fail, a lot of them fail not because their arms don't work or their feet don't work, they fail because their head doesn't work. Many of the biggest busts are that way: Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell to name two.If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I would take Mariota over Winston and never look back. Mariota is not perfect but the kid is going to work at making it in the NFL. Winston is a huge risk that is not worth taking with Mariota on the board.
massraider
Footballguy
http://draftbreakdown.com/video/marcus-mariota-vs-ucla-2014/
All of Mariota's passes vs. UCLA this past season.
The lack of impressive intermediate and deep passes has to be a concern.
All of Mariota's passes vs. UCLA this past season.
The lack of impressive intermediate and deep passes has to be a concern.
In the Florida State game I had him 2/6 on long passes. One of those was based on the bubble screens that they had been setting up all game. Same game I had him 7/10 on medium throws, and it might have been generous calling some of those throws medium.
Another thing that won't transition to the pro game is the tempo that the Ducks play with. You're catching young kids off guard with that tempo where they get confused on the system they should be running... that won't happen in the pros.
I like Mariota, but there are some question marks.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Good post and one that gets to the root of the dilemma. I'm not sure if this is necessarily true, or not though. Plenty of good guys have come and gone in the NFL and never evolved physically to reach the level needed to attain success. Also, mental development and maturity aren't isolated to off field antics. There is on field maturity, mental capacity and natural instincts which lend themselves to playing QB in the NFL. Guys like Harrington, A. Smith and Tebow couldn't have been nicer, hard working guys who would have cut off a finger if it would guarantee their success. Physical limitations held them back. Others like Gabbert, Locker and Freeman never seemed to be able to mentally transition to the NFL game and complexity for one reason or another.
I mean is pocket feel and instinct really something you can develop with any high level of success? Believe it or not the fight or flight instinct plays a large role if a guy is going to stand in the pocket with 300 LB DL are trying to crush him. What about field vision, anticipation and leadership? Are things that are more likely to be improved upon with coaching than things like behavioral maturity? I really don't know. I don't think anyone knows and that is the rub. The mental aspects of playing QB are far greater than just off field or on field. It's a complex soup.
At the end of the day what's so different about the stuff Winston has been involved in vs a guy like Marino, Roethlisberger or a slew of other guys I could name?
It's pretty easy to look back and point out the guys who were massive failure like Leaf and say; "I told you so. This is the risk behind Winston." The truth of the matter is nobody knew Leaf was going to turn into a nuclear disaster. The guy was picked 2nd overall by a real NFL team with millions of dollars and resources that are damn near infinite compared to what us leisure message boarders have available. Nobody knows what's really going to happen once these guys get in the NFL. Leaf is a cautionary tail that applies to everyone IMO. Not just some isolated guys we may choose to support or not support. It truly shows how little we all know sometimes. Which brings me to the next point...
I think something that is being greatly glossed over in this thread is that there is also risk with Mariota busting because he doesn't have the mental makeup to succeed. I mean people are acting as if it's a shoe in, the only way he fails is if he doesn't mature physically. At worst he perhaps doesn't fully grasp a more traditional NFL offense but no worries because the team will cater to him anyway and adopt some form of his Oregon offense. It's possible he just fails to grasp it at all. Do I think his intangible risks are greater than Winston? Well, that depends on how you're looking at it. On the field intangibles I'd give that edge to Winston. Off the field I'd give it to Mariota. What's more important? I don't know the answer and I'm sure every team falls somewhere different on the spectrum.
My personal take on Winston is that he needs to be humbled. He strikes me as a guy who's been given a long leash his entire life because of his rare gifts athletically. It's caused him to get a bit full of himself and have a persona that he's above the law in a sense. I don't really have anything concrete to justify that. It's just an impression from seeing him and reading about him. Teams will surely get a very deep dig into his personality. Far more than I ever could which is why I try to minimize that aspect of it when evaluating players. The good thing is, the NFL has a near sure fire way of doing that to all players. At some point you are going to be humbled as a player in the NFL. How do you respond is the question?
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CalBear
Footballguy
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Dilfer is actully mostly correct. Mariota is not truly NFL ready. He will have to learn an entirely new way of running an offense. He should sit for a year. I doubt he slips as far as Dilfer suggests though. This is a QB league. Many teams know that they do not have the QB that they need and must take a chance on someone with the possibility of talent.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I find myself agreeing with Dilfer and others who have raised questions about Mariota.DocHolliday said:
The Oregon offense schemes-open WRs so the QB has easy shorter quicker throws and he doesn't face as many tight-quarter throws from the pocket that a guy like Jameis Winston made from a Pro Set traditional NFL type offense.
The Johnny Manziel factor of character is in background with character concerns but he came from a spread offense where he never had a playbook but Mariota and Winston have legit NFL size and I think that is the main reason he probably won't make it in the NFL. I don't think the decision of Mariota/Winston is boiled down to character its also about the scheme that these guys come from and what each brings to the table and their are questions about Mariota.
