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Marvin Jones (2 Viewers)

Cowboysfan8 said:
Jones's last 3 target totals 5,4,2

Maclin hasn't had less than 7 in a game except for last week when KC ran it down Oakland's throat.

Other than that it's just my gut for this week

Eta: Saints allowing 300 yds a game passing
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That's Marvin's reception totals, not his target totals. Target totals for past three weeks are - 7, 5 and 6. Doubt it will ever get any lower than that tbh, think he was a victim of receiving the most attention from defences, combined with Detroits wish to feed Tate until it sparked his season. 

But fair enough, gut feeling and all. Maclin does have a great matchup and I hope you are right because so far he has been a bust ( non PPR ). Would love for him to get to the party and offer something 

 
Dynasty Marvin is a golden hold .... he's the #1 WR there for years to come IMO

Short term redraft yeah, tempting to trade him

 
Tossup between him and Enunwa this week, leaning Enunwa. Too many mouths to feed in Detroit with Ebron and Riddick healthy, plus they're playing Minnesota.

 
His target totals this year starting in week 1:

10, 11, 8, 7, 5, 6, 5, 7

Expectations have been adjusted at this point. Thankfully I have Moncrief as my WR4, so I'm benching Marvin this week. Schedule looks pretty decent outside of another matchup w/ MIN on Thanksgiving, so hopefully he ramps it back up after the bye.

 
NickyHatton said:
His target totals this year starting in week 1:

10, 11, 8, 7, 5, 6, 5, 7

Expectations have been adjusted at this point. Thankfully I have Moncrief as my WR4, so I'm benching Marvin this week. Schedule looks pretty decent outside of another matchup w/ MIN on Thanksgiving, so hopefully he ramps it back up after the bye.
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Yeah, sucks. He's tied for 23rd in targets and he's 9th in PPR, 8th in standard scoring.

Worth noting, Stafford's attempts have been 39, 40, 41, 36, 25, 31, 29, 41.

So Marvin's targets share has been 26%, 28%, 20%, 19%, 20%, 19%, 17%, 17%

It's slipping, but not by as much as it appears when just looking at his targets. He's still on the field more than any other Detroit WR. Stafford is playing the best football of his career (career highs in completion %, YPA, and TD/INT ratio) but he's also on pace for a career low for passing attempts in a 16g season. So things could easily get much better if Stafford gets back to his normal 37-40 att/g pace. Also, Abdullah is eligible to return in a few weeks. Getting a semblance of a running game back could really help the offense.

 
FF Ninja said:
Yeah, sucks. He's tied for 23rd in targets and he's 9th in PPR, 8th in standard scoring.

Worth noting, Stafford's attempts have been 39, 40, 41, 36, 25, 31, 29, 41.

So Marvin's targets share has been 26%, 28%, 20%, 19%, 20%, 19%, 17%, 17%

It's slipping, but not by as much as it appears when just looking at his targets. He's still on the field more than any other Detroit WR. Stafford is playing the best football of his career (career highs in completion %, YPA, and TD/INT ratio) but he's also on pace for a career low for passing attempts in a 16g season. So things could easily get much better if Stafford gets back to his normal 37-40 att/g pace. Also, Abdullah is eligible to return in a few weeks. Getting a semblance of a running game back could really help the offense.
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There was no way Jones was going to keep up the pace he was on.  And now defenses have adjusted to him.  They use their #1 corner and safety help on him and they force DET to nickel and dime down the field with Riddick, Tate, Boldin and Ebron.

I still think Jones will be solid the rest of the way, but expectations must be tempered.

 
fightingillini said:
There was no way Jones was going to keep up the pace he was on.  And now defenses have adjusted to him.  They use their #1 corner and safety help on him and they force DET to nickel and dime down the field with Riddick, Tate, Boldin and Ebron.

I still think Jones will be solid the rest of the way, but expectations must be tempered.
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Did you mean to reply to me? I don't feel like what you said was related to my post. My post was mainly outlining that his drop in targets is partially a small drop in target share and partially a drop in pass attempts.

 
FF Ninja said:
Did you mean to reply to me? I don't feel like what you said was related to my post. My post was mainly outlining that his drop in targets is partially a small drop in target share and partially a drop in pass attempts.
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I understand that.  The drop in target share is probably due to defenses adjusting to Jones as the de facto #1.  Given all the weapons DET has in the passing game, there was no way he was going to sustain his initial pace.

 
Tool said:
What's happened to this guy?
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0.5, 3,3, 7.5, 7.4, 8.5, 9.4, 9.7, 11.8, 32.5.

Pretty clear what happened to this guy. His out season outlook got totally inflated by one out of character week where Packers' DBs basically let Jones walk in on 2 long TD passes. 

 
Ilov80s said:
0.5, 3,3, 7.5, 7.4, 8.5, 9.4, 9.7, 11.8, 32.5.

Pretty clear what happened to this guy. His out season outlook got totally inflated by one out of character week where Packers' DBs basically let Jones walk in on 2 long TD passes. 
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Not sure it's clear at all. First four games he was getting lots of targets and had >75 yards in each game. Since then targets have dropped and all but one game has been <40 yards.

 
Tool said:
Not sure it's clear at all. First four games he was getting lots of targets and had >75 yards in each game. Since then targets have dropped and all but one game has been <40 yards.
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Those are his points this year in a standard league. 0.5, 3,3, 7.5, 7.4, 8.5, 9.4, 9.7, 11.8, 32.5.  It is pretty clear which game is a wild outlier and the range of production we should expect from Jones on a week to week basis. His median score is 8.5. His lowest score was -8 from that. His highest score was +24 points. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Those are his points this year in a standard league. 0.5, 3,3, 7.5, 7.4, 8.5, 9.4, 9.7, 11.8, 32.5.  It is pretty clear which game is a wild outlier and the range of production we should expect from Jones on a week to week basis. His median score is 8.5. His lowest score was -8 from that. His highest score was +24 points. 
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Obviously not expecting 30 point games. I'm focusing on yards and targets which have been meaningfully declining.

 
Anyone just dropping this guy at this point?

Detroit on bye this week, then @JAX I'd gather he'll get J. Ramsey, and then it's MN again. Would love to wait it out until @NO the following week but that's a lifetime away at this point.

After lucking out with T. Pryor and picking up S. Smith, M. Jones is now my #4 WR at this point. 

For those like myself with RB issues, it could be drop city for Mr. Jones.

 
kyoun1e said:
Anyone just dropping this guy at this point?

Detroit on bye this week, then @JAX I'd gather he'll get J. Ramsey, and then it's MN again. Would love to wait it out until @NO the following week but that's a lifetime away at this point.

After lucking out with T. Pryor and picking up S. Smith, M. Jones is now my #4 WR at this point. 

For those like myself with RB issues, it could be drop city for Mr. Jones.
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I've held him thinking (hoping) he would get more targets/receptions.  It's not happening.  I think it's time to drop him and see what can be scraped together from WW.  He was my WR2, and now he's hardly playable.

 
I'm going to start him this week due to bye week. I don't feel to bad about it and see him have a decent game. Dropping him is crazy. 

 
He still is leading all wr's on the team in snap counts every week....Stafford just isn't targetting him as often.

 
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Last game he was targetted 3-4 times deep. Was getting PI'd the entire time and it wasn't till late that one got called for him. 

PI obviously doesn't help us, but he will have some good games again this season and maybe even another massive one . 

 
People dropping him as nuts. All he's proven is that he won't be one of those top WRs that will produce week in and week out, no matter the situation. How many of those can you actually count?

Julio, AB84, Tampa Mike, Fitz?

Even Odell and AJ Green have had a couple clunkers. WRs are more inconsistent than not.

Marvin has had a couple clunkers in a row, followed by a bye. He was never a fantasy WR1, but you better bet he's still a quality WR2.

 
Dropping him is crazy?  How is that crazy?  He's been phased out of the offense and isn't even being targeted.

Meanwhile, lots of guys on the waiver wire have passed that could have helped you.

At some point you have to admit when the party is over...

 
at this point no - he's a hold in dynasty / keeper ... the opportunity to trade is over

I still like the guy for 2017 

 
Fireballer said:
I knew his performance wasnt sustainable, but this dude is hot trash.Dropping this week.  
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Agreed.  I was pumped early this season cause I had both Marvin and Sammie Coates as keepers.  These guys didn't hit the wall they became the wall.  Still holding onto them but not sure why.

 
Feels like a lesson from Dennis Green, "Marvin Jones is who we thought he was."

It was a great story in August, became the sexy sleeper pick in FF drafts, made everyone look like a genius in September, and once defenses started paying attention to him he is back to where he always has been... waiver wire fodder with boom/bust potential.

 
 I dropped him 3 weeks ago to pick up crowder.  I really could have picked up anybody though...

More surprisingly is that nobody picked him up

 
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killface said:
 I dropped him 3 weeks ago to pick up crowder.  I really could have picked up anybody though...

More surprisingly is that nobody picked him up
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Did the exact same thing 2 weeks ago.  Crowder is the polar opposite, with very consistent production this season.

 
Ilov80s said:
0.5, 3,3, 7.5, 7.4, 8.5, 9.4, 9.7, 11.8, 32.5.

Pretty clear what happened to this guy. His out season outlook got totally inflated by one out of character week where Packers' DBs basically let Jones walk in on 2 long TD passes. 
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It's the same for Tate as well, worse actually. He had the 8/165/1 game in week 6 where they used him at RB. But that's the only game in the last 32 games where he's went over 100 yds receiving. Maybe he should switch to RB. I honestly have no idea how the Lions are winning games. They don't really have any outstanding players on either side of the ball except for Stafford. 

 
So, didn't do much this week versus MIN as expected, but did see 11 targets, most since week 2.

A slight sign of hope going forward or a one week outlier? He does still have a few decent matchups left on the schedule.

 
Lions taking the air out the ball and going almost exclusively dink and dunk has definitely hurt him. Bolden taking red zone looks hurts as well. Frustrating to see, as the upside is clearly there. Amazing how far he has fallen since early in the season.

 
[scooter] said:
9-3 with a rotating cast of Jones/Fitzgerald/Crowder/Benjamin and whatever scraps I can occasionally find on the WW. :shrug:

Have not started Jones since Week 9, though.
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I can only assume you are rocking Crowder and Fitz who are doing well

 
Speaking about his 2016, Marvin Jones said "in terms of my standards, it wasn't good at all."
408 of Jones' 930 yards came in his first three games. "When you look at how I started, you wouldn't think it would end this way," Jones said. "Obviously, I had some uncharacteristic drops here and there and early on. I never had a season like this. I don't know what to say." Jones is still only 27 (in March), but he's now looked like more of a role player than No. 1 receiver with two different teams/quarterbacks. There's no real reason to expect a step forward in 2017.

 
 
Source: Detroit Free Press 
Jan 10 - 6:58 PM
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Having watched every game I was shocked at how bad Jones looked.

The early stats were inflated as two of his long bombs the defender fell down.  Jones looked like a raw rookie WR in terms of route running and anticipation..when plays broke down he was lost.

 
He missed a game, so if you add his playoff game in there to make 16 games, his season total comes to 110 targets, 59 rec, 1011 yards, 4 TDs. Not bad totals for a guy with an ADP around WR32 and pretty similar to Tate in 0ppr - 135 targets, 91 rec, 1077 yards, 4 TDs. But like Faust's quote said, most of Marvin's production came in the first 3 games. He had 59 targets in his first 8 games and 51 targets in his last 8. He had a 61% catch rate in Cincy down to 54% this season. I guess that makes sense given that (I assume) his ADoT increased.

What do people expect from him next year? He was limited by foot and thigh injuries at times, but hard to tell how much that impacted him although the thigh injury he played through did eventually cause him to sit out a week. Stafford also had a hand injury and really saw his production drop in his splits (7.6 ypa, 16 TD/4 INT vs. 7.0 ypa, 8 TD/6 INT). I imagine he'll be pretty cheap next year due to the collapse, but I think he's a guy I'd gladly drop a few bucks on as my WR4 due to upside.

 
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